Noah Syndergaard‘s UCL tear takes some serious wind out of the Mets’ sails. Sails that have all but already lost their wind due to the dark cloud the coronavirus outbreak has cast over the (hopefully) impending season, but that is neither here not there.

It is assumed that Michael Wacha will take over as the fifth starter, which adds credence to his proclivity that he’s had a rotation spot all along. Instead, Wacha and the Mets would both be better served if the team deployed him as a reliever and explored other rotation options. This is due in part to Wacha’s diminished skill set, but also the potential he offers as a reliever in addition to the not-so-bad starting options the Mets have besides him (especially if he succeeds in the bullpen).

Wacha’s Decline 

Syndergaard or no Syndergaard, there is little reason to believe Wacha can be an effective starting pitcher at this juncture of his career. His devolution has been well documented, falling from frontline starter to scrap-heap signing in just a few short seasons. An unsightly 18.5 K% last season was a career-low and catalyzed an atrocious 5.61 FIP. Once able to make use of four pitches successfully, now it seems Wacha only has one.

His fastball’s effectiveness has been zapped as its velocity has declined each of the last three seasons. It generates next to no swinging strikes, is hit well, and really lacks any sort of desirable quality whatsoever.

Yet, for reasons unbeknownst to me, he actually threw it more in 2019 than 2018, over 7% (from 42% to 49%) more! It is difficult to understand the rationale behind featuring a pitch that that can’t get anybody out while his changeup remains absolutely wicked.

Michael Wacha, Disgusting 85mph Changeup. 😷 pic.twitter.com/IsVNhxgwt1

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 17, 2019

Wacha As Reliever 

A shift to the bullpen would allow Wacha to refine his repertoire with a newfound focus on the pitch. For comparison’s sake, 5 RPs threw off-speed, non-breaking pitches (changeup or splitter) more than 50% of the time last season: Luis Avilan, Oliver Drake, Yoshihisa Hirano, Hector Neris, and Tommy Kahnle. Not all of them have a devastating fastball. In fact, most of them don’t. Yet, each was still effective overall on the backs’ of their primary pitch.

Wacha’s changeup compares favorably and that is without an expected gain in fastball velocity he would enjoy as a reliever. It sat between 94 and 95 mph over the course of his career before regressing in 2018 and again in 2019. However, for the second consecutive spring, Wacha’s fastball has ticked up a notch. Last March, Eno Sarris of The Athletic reported him touching 97, a figure he again approached this Spring.

Michael Wacha struck out a pair last night in West Palm Beach. Dusty Baker said Wacha's velocity (which sat 95-96) was the best he had seen from him. #Mets pic.twitter.com/tE0Cxj7iGw

— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) March 7, 2020

Starters will only throw a handful of innings during spring appearances and may be inclined to air it out a little bit, a preview at what could be if they were asked to relieve. A Wacha who doubled his changeup usage and sat 95-96 would be a real-life weapon. The addition of a potentially upper echelon reliever immediately would do wonders for the Mets’ bullpen depth and allow for some more flexibility.

Photo by Ed Delany, MMO

Other Rotation Options

Namely, the option of deploying Seth Lugo as a starter. All things considered, there is a compelling argument to be made that Lugo is now the third (I’d even entertain second) best starting pitcher on the roster. The ideal role for Lugo would be pitching the bulk of his innings out of the pen, but chipping in spot starts depending on matchups, injuries, or scheduling quirks. Much like how the Dodgers deploy Ross Stripling, Lugo could offer even more value accruing a portion of his 90-110 IP as a starter.

The problem is he’s the team’s best reliever right now. He’s also been pitching with a partial tear of his UCL and dealt with shoulder issues last season, so who knows how many innings he should be giving and how much back and forth between roles could wear him down. The potential is tantalizing, but not a risk the team may be willing to take.

So, the likely options, sans Wacha, are Corey Oswalt or David Peterson. Oswalt gets a bad rap, but he made tremendous strides in 2019, namely cutting his walk rate in half from 8.6% to 4.3%. The momentum seemed to carry over this spring as he pitched 8 innings, struck out 6, allowed 1 earned run and walked none. This trend of improved K-BB% makes him intriguing at the very least.

Peterson has the better pedigree of the two: a first round pick in 2017 out of Oregon and consistently finding his way into Mets’ top prospects lists. Michael Mayer of MMO just put out an exclusive on Peterson and Baseball America wrote him up in January. His fastball sits 91-92 and his curve is a work in progress, but he pounds the zone and uses his slider to miss bats. Peterson’s SwSt% of 13.7 was 47th highest across all of Double-A among pitchers who threw at least 50 innings (272 total pitchers). This rate was higher than that of Matt Manning, Ian Anderson, and Logan Gilbert, each of which is more highly regarded than Peterson.

Neither have ace potential, and neither is ideal, but the Mets could realize more value by using a combination of the two and Lugo in a more limited sense to start the games vacated by Syndergaard while Wacha relieves rather than Wacha being thrust into a traditional starter’s role.

The post Who Should Replace Noah Syndergaard? appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The Mets bullpen has the potential to be incredibly good. Possibly one of the best in baseball. That feels weird to say after it was the team’s Achilles heel in 2019, but possible bounce-backs from both Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia, the return of Brad Brach, the acquisition of Dellin Betances, and Seth Lugo’s emergence creates an array of horrifying late inning scenarios for opponents.

That being said, building a bullpen should never stop. They are like organisms: breaking- down, moving, and changing with every turning day. Lugo still has a flimsy UCL, Betances is coming to Queens with a laundry list of injuries, and there is no telling which Edwin Diaz will show up in 2020. There is a chance the collective is great, but the variance is high.

Brodie’s job with this bullpen is not done, especially with only one left-handed option, and here are two potential low-cost, high potential relievers the Mets could take a look at.

Francisco Liriano

Liriano’s first season working as a reliever was mildly successful. He was 5-3 with a 3.47 ERA, 4.53 FIP, and 63 Ks in 70 IP. Very meh, nothing exciting here.

He enjoyed a slight bump in velocity across the board from 2018 to 2019. Nothing to write home about, but an improvement nonetheless.

(Source: FanGraphs)

Where Liriano was elite was in limiting hard contact. He was in the 98th and 96th percentiles in opponent’s exit velocity and hard hit rate. Specifically against left-handed hitters, Liriano only allowed 17 balls in play (1.5%) greater than 95 mph exit velocity, the benchmark number that qualifies ‘Hard Hit Rate’.

Regardless, Liriano was still unable to miss bats. He only struck out 20.9% of the batters he faced and his 11.9 BB% was in the bottom 9% of the league. His K-BB% (9.3%) ranked 205th out of 249 RPs who threw at least 30 innings.

A peak under the hood shows that Liriano’s changeup and slider missed plenty of bats. His fastball is not shown below since he threw it less than 6% over the final three months of the season:

More than just whiffs, the difference in effectiveness between Liriano’s pitches was stark in 2019.

(Source: Baseball Savant)

If Liriano refocused his repertoire to feature his changeup and slider, he could develop into a late-inning weapon.

Robbie Erlin

Another former starter, the early stages of Erlin’s career were marred by injuries and ineffectiveness. He has never completed a season with an ERA under 4.00 and only threw 32 2/3 innings from 2014-2016. Lingering elbow issues ultimately resulted in Tommy John surgery May of 2016. He missed the entire 2017 season before switching to a relief role full time midway through 2018.

Erlin has never blown anybody away with his 90 mph fastball, but is true control artist.

(Source: FanGraphs)

Pounding the zone without elite velocity is all good and well, but Erlin’s potential derives from his exceptional curveball.

Robbie Erlin with a beautiful curveball pic.twitter.com/igqON9NxLt

— Ben Palmer (@benjpalmer) April 5, 2018

When throwing his curve last season, Erlin surrendered no walks and struck out more than 30% of opponents. They hit only .182 BA (.204 xBA) against it with a measly .176 wOBA. Batters hit above .300 with at least a .337 wOBA against all 4 of his other pitches.

The pitch is menacing, especially compared to the rest of his arsenal, but Erlin has never featured it. He had just the 252^nd highest breaking ball percentage in baseball last season (40^th percentile). He threw all five of his pitches at least 10% of the time despite the ineffectiveness of four of them. This is the pitch-mix of a starter, not a reliever.

                                         (Source: Baseball Savant)

The Padres deployment of Erlin may be the cause of his balanced repertoire. Erlin threw more than one inning in 35 of his relief appearances dating back to 2018 opposed to 28 of one inning or fewer. Former starters can give you length out of the pen, it is a tale as old as time, but this old-school adage may be keeping Erlin from his potential.

(Source: FanGraphs)

Erlin’s has some serious strengths, but has not yet pitched to them. A series of minor adjustments can make him tremendously valuable.

Both Liriano and Erlin can be signed with little to no risk. Both come with starting experience and can likely be stretched out if absolutely necessary. Both are teeming with potential, much like the Mets’ bullpen.

The post Two Interesting Left-Handed Reliever Options appeared first on Metsmerized Online.