That said, Alonso may have very well found a way to salvage his future outlook in the second half of the 2024 season. Alonso’s lack of athleticism can be revealing at times but at the plate, it shows when he is trying to maintain the same approach he had from 2019-to-2022.

Brad Penner-Imagn Images

To his credit, Alonso has never been a prototypical big strikeout, big power guy. In fact, it was under 20% in both 2021 and 2022. It is probably something Alonso prides himself on but sometimes we have seen that when guys try and avoid strikeouts with diminishing bat speed, they end up sacrificing some of their production in an effort to keep the ball in play.

This is not just an attempt to tear down Alonso’s player profile. While Alonso actually struck out nearly 30% of the time in the second half, he actually managed to drastically improve his production.

In the first half of the 2024 season, Alonso slashed .240/.319/.454 with a .332 wOBA, 116 wRC+, 31.6% hard-hit rate, 80% contact rate, and 20.7 K%. As for the second half, he hit .240/.345/.467 with a .352 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 40.8% hard-hit rate, 73.2% contact rate, and 30.6% K%.

The skinny? Alonso effectively struck out more and made less contact which by itself is not great, but he managed to hit the ball harder and increased his production. Of course, we’re all left to speculate but this does lend some credence to the notion that Alonso abandoned the idea of trying to avoid strikeouts in exchange for more authoritative contact. He then followed the second half by slashing .273/.431/.568/.999 in the playoffs while striking out 26% of the time.

Adding to that, Alonso hit .332 with a .665 slugging percentage and .414 wOBA in the 2022 season on pitches in the zone. In the first half of 2024, those numbers were .285, .533, and .343 respectively. Well, in the second half, those numbers returned to 2022 form with a .341 average, .674 slugging, and .423 wOBA.

These numbers could all mean nothing but I maintain slightly more optimism. A big reason why is because Jeff McNeil had a similar path prior to his injury. McNeil had a .216./.276/.314 slash in the first half with a .263 wOBA, 70 wRC+, and 12.4 K%. In the second half (with albeit fewer plate appearances), he hit .289/.376/.547 with a .391 wOBA, 156 wRC+, and 18.8 K%.

For some more context, the Mets as a team had the ninth lowest K% in baseball in the first half (21%) but the 10th highest in the second half (24.4%). Before it is misconstrued, I am not saying striking out more is a good thing on its own but given the team’s success in the second half compared to the first half, it can also be said that hitting to avoid strikeouts is not optimal either.

Regarding Alonso, I do not think he’s about to start putting up numbers like it is 2022 but I can get behind the idea that there is more behind the curtain than just his 2024 statistics. All this is entirely speculation but I believe this was a worthwhile analysis. Someone who would know whether or not Alonso made some genuine changes to his approach would be David Stearns. If Stearns is on board with bringing Alonso back, I think there is something there.

The only hesitation I would have with Alonso returning is locking Mark Vientos and Alonso in at the corner infield positions for the next couple of year years. Having those two on the corner infield of a starting staff that does not strike a lot of folks out seems suboptimal. David Stearns has the benefit of the doubt but I would certainly feel better if one of those two were the DH.

The post A Case for the New Pete Alonso appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: 3B B/T: R/R

Age: 33 (04/16/1991)

2024 Traditional Stats: 635 PA, .272/.325/.394/.719, 157 H, 16 HR, 71 RBI

2024 Advanced Stats: 102 wRC+, 14.5% K%, 6.9% BB%, .296 BABIP, .297 xwOBA, 3.1 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

This can probably characterized as a move that would have been more exciting in 2019 or even 2022. There is still some value in what Nolan Arenado brings to the table, though, in my opinion.

While with the Colorado Rockies, Arenado was an MVP candidate. He was arguably the best third baseman in baseball and was posting elite offensive numbers along with his sterling glove. From 2015 to 2019, Arenado hit .300/.362/.575 with a 129 OPS+ and averaged 6.5 bWAR a year. Pretty good as Larry David would say. That stellar play helped earn him an eight-year extension worth $260 million, which notably came with a no-trade clause.

The Rockies quickly decided that they could not handle the contract, however, and moved him to the St. Louis Cardinals ahead of the 2021 season. They had almost no trade leverage and thus ended up eating a portion of his remaining money despite a light return, which included the likes of Austin Gomber and Elehuris Montero.

His first year in St. Louis was fine, but it represented a far cry from his numbers in Colorado as he slashed .255/.312/.494 with a 119 OPS+. Despite the slip in offensive output, he still posted 4.0 bWAR due to his sparkling glove.

In 2022, though, he had his best season (league-adjusted) by hitting .293/.358/.533 with a 151 OPS+. His defense, to go along with the offensive output, gave him a 7.7 bWAR season, the highest of his career. The funny story, though, is that his contract had an opt-out after 2022 and despite coming off an incredible campaign, Arenado opted into the remainder of it.

In his two subsequent seasons, Arenado has hit .269/.320/.426 with a 104 OPS+ and averaged a 2.45 bWAR. Being one of the greatest defenders ever to play third base has helped keep his production afloat, but the offensive trends are not great. Arenado has never been a high strikeout guy, and that’s remained the case despite his declining production in 2023 and 2024. His contact rate is roughly the same too, and the only aspect of his game that has truly declined is his hard-hit rate. I would venture that’s a result of diminished bat speed and he is on a mission to make contact at all costs.

St. Louis is in a re-tooling period and Arenado wants out. The Cardinals, by all accounts, have no problem obliging his request. Remember that NTC I mentioned? Well, Arenado has six teams he would waive it for, per MLB.com’s John Denton: the Boston Red Sox, Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers. Arenado is a Southern California native, so his intent here seems to be winning or being close to home. He’s not bluffing either, just ask the Houston Astros.

Trade Package

Cash considerations. In all seriousness, the return would be quite minimal. The Cardinals were reportedly willing to pay Arenado’s contract down to about $40-45 million remaining over three years in the nixed deal with Houston. I would guess they want something of a return rather than just a straight salary dump. Given that Chaim Bloom is about to take over as the team’s president of baseball operations, I think they will target a lower-level minor-league prospect with decent metrics rather than a “fancy” name. Perhaps they could also be intrigued by Brett Baty as a potential replacement for Arenado.

The NTC also minimizes the Cardinals’ leverage. I think it will come down to the Mets, Phillies and Red Sox. I do wonder if the Mets would be willing to take on Arenado’s full contract and add Ryan Helsley to the deal as well, though all signs point to St. Louis holding on to its All-Star closer for now.

Mets Receive:

• 3B Nolan Arenado

Cardinals Receive:

• IF Brett Baty
• RHP Dom Hamel
• Cash considerations

My Thoughts

Objectively speaking, getting a player who puts up 2-3 bWAR for $13-$15 million a year is a good deal. This would effectively mean Mark Vientos has to play first base, which I think is reasonable. Vientos has limitations with his glove at third, so odds are he will be at first at some point in his career. We’re not at Wilmer Flores at shortstop, J.D. Davis (at every position) or even Lucas Duda in the outfield levels of bad, but we also do not have to pretend he’s a good defensive third baseman at this stage, but he could always improve.

Ironically, Boston is attempting to do the same with Rafael Devers. We also know David Stearns does value run prevention quite a bit. Last offseason, for example, the Mets signed Harrison Bader to play center field and moved Brandon Nimmo to left field.

Now, with that said, I think the better option if you want a third baseman is Alex Bregman. I mean, why not? Steve Cohen just handed out the largest contract in sports to Juan Soto, and we know he’s willing to blow past any sense of reasonable limits. He also has a penchant for liking infielders from the 2017 – 2021 Astros to play third base in Queens. If you’re in the market for a third baseman, why not get the best option?

If that falls through, then Arenado would make sense. I think Pete Alonso versus Arenado is an interesting debate. Both have declined on offense. but I think Alonso is still clearly the better hitter. However, their overall values would likely even out because of how they shake out on the defensive spectrum. I think my ranking would be: Bregman, mysterious trade candidate, Alonso and then Arenado. It’s a very slight nod to Alonso for his offense, but I could easily be persuaded into Arenado over him.

The post Trade Profile: Nolan Arenado, 3B appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: SP B/T: R/R

Age: 32 (12/12/1992)

2024 Traditional Stats: 30 starts, 175.1 IP, 3.64 ERA, 1.169 WHIP, 11-12, 175 K, 47 BB

2024 Advanced Stats: 101 ERA+, 24.3% K%, 6.5% BB%, 3.94 xERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.82 xFIP, 2.3 fWAR, 1.8 bWAR

Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

Rundown

No, not that Luis Castillo. It does seem somewhat appropriate though since the other Luis no longer has the worst dropped ball in Yankee Stadium history.

The pitching Castillo has seemingly been a Mets target for years now. From 2020-2022, he seemed like the perfect addition to a Mets team that desperately needed pitching help. After being dealt to Seattle, the rumors and fascinations over Castillo seemed to end for a period of time. However, with rumblings that Seattle is willing to shop Castillo, it might be time to examine his fit with the Mets again.

After bouncing around between the Giants and Marlins systems, Castillo finally broke onto the scene in Cincinnati. By 2019, Castillo broke out with a 3.40 ERA (137 ERA+) over 190.2 innings and posted a 5.2 bWAR. Castillo then backed that up with a strong pandemic-shortened campaign and another solid 2021 campaign. By 2022, he had become one of the most widely rumored trade candidates due to his production, the Reds’ lack of success, and the fact he was facing free agency. After posting a 2.86 ERA and 152 ERA+ in the first half, the Reds dealt him to Seattle for a group of prospects. Seattle promptly extended the right-hander to ensure he would not touch free agency.

The right-hander is potentially back on the market but there could be a reason for that. Castillo posted a 3.34 ERA, 118 ERA+, and 3.4 bWAR in 2023 and earned some Cy Young votes. However, he declined to a 3.64 ERA, 101 ERA+, and 1.8 bWAR in 2024. More alarmingly, Castillo’s velocity also declined and as a result, his contact rate against him went up while his swinging strike rate went down. Is there a reason for any of those numbers though? Here are some things that jumped out when looking into his numbers a bit more:

• Castillo was heavily featuring his changeup with the Reds. He used it over 30% of the time between 2019-2021. In 2024, he was throwing that at pitch 14.3% of the time.
• He was also featuring his four-seamer less than 30% of the time in those aforementioned three seasons but now he’s using it 45% of the time.
• He also has been trying to feature his slider more but he has also lost movement on said slider. In 2023, he had 1.4 inches of vertical drop but in 2024, he had -1 inches of vertical movement.
• Castillo’s arm angle dropped from 18 degrees in 2023 to 15 degrees in 2024.

The Mariners are very good at developing pitchers as evidenced by Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. I do not want to pretend the problem for Castillo was as simple as “Hey fix your arm angle and go back to your pitch mixes from 2021.” With that being said, it might be that simple. I think it is certainly worth a shot because whatever Castillo tried doing in 2024 did not work for him.

Package

Despite the concerns I laid out above, I think Castillo would fetch a good return for Seattle. Castillo’s contract has aged like a fine wine despite his potential decline. He is slated to make $24.15 million from 2025-2027. Given the market for pitchers right now, that still seems like a coup. For example, Frankie Montas might have some solid underlying trends but the Mets would be very lucky if he produced like Castillo did in 2024, despite the latter’s struggles.

My guess, is any package likely starts with Brett Baty to Seattle. Perhaps another piece like Luisangel Acuña would make sense for Seattle along with a pitching piece.

Mets Receive:

• Luis Castillo

Mariners Receive:

• IF Brett Baty
• IF Luisangel Acuña
• RHP Jack Wenninger

Recommendation

I think it depends on how fixable the Mets think Castillo is. If they think he can return to 2019-2023 levels of being a 4-win starter, I think it is a good deal and the Mets should do it.

As mentioned above though, the return will not be minimal but I would still prefer Castillo to say Walker Buehler or Nick Pivetta though.

The post MMO Trade Profile: Luis Castillo, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The 1988 Mets outlasted (led by Dilip Sridhar) the 2006 Mets (led by Patrick Glynn) in six games.

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Game 1 

It was David Cone for the 1988 Mets and Pedro Martinez for the 2006 team. Cone was not as dominant as he was in the last series for the ‘88 club, but he gave his team a chance. The ‘88 team grabbed an early 1-0 lead, but David Wright hit a two-run homer off Cone to give the ‘06 team a lead they would not relinquish. Darry Strawberry hit a homer in the ninth off Billy Wagner to make Patrick stress a little, but the ‘06 team drew first blood. 

Game 2 

Dwight Gooden took the ball for the 1988 team and John Maine got the start for the ‘06 team. Gooden had a pretty smooth outing, while Maine and the bullpen faltered. The ‘88 team ended up taking the second game, 6-2. 

Game 3 

Orlando Hernandez started for the 2006 team against Bob Ojeda. Ojeda was sensational, with 6.1 scoreless innings pitched and 11 strikeouts. Hernandez gave up a three-run homer to Darryl Strawberry, and that was all Ojeda needed. Strawberry added another homer later in the game.

Game 4 

Tom Glavine got the start against Sid Fernandez. Glavine’s lone mistake was a home run to Keith Hernandez but otherwise threw a complete game. David Wright homered for the ‘06 team again. Cliff Floyd also provided an RBI double in a 5-1 win. 

Game 5 

Keith Hernandez hit a huge three-run homer off Pedro to give the ‘88 team an early 3-0 lead. Gary Carter and Howard Johnson added two-run doubles as well. David Cone pitched into the 8th inning without giving up a run but after walks to Beltran and Wright, Randy Myers was called on to face Carlos Delgado with the bases loaded. Delgado hit a grand slam off Myers to pull the ‘06 team within one. Myers managed to escape with the lead but it was suddenly nervous in the ‘88 dugout. They managed to add two insurance runs to make it a more breathable, 7-4 game.

Ron Darling got the ninth and loaded the bases himself. It was his game to finish, though, and despite walking Beltran with the bases loaded, he managed to strike out David Wright for the save. 

Game 6

It was Maine vs Gooden again. Carlos Beltran homered for the ‘06 team to give them an early lead, but some timely hits from Keith Hernandez and Darryl Strawberry gave the ‘88 team a lead they would not relinquish. Gooden went six strong before Roger McDowell was called on. He gave up a run but kept the lead. Myers got the eighth inning after him and was allowed to start the ninth. Darling was up in the bullpen if needed but Myers got the final three outs to end the series. 

Series MVP

I could go with Doc or Darryl, but I would lean toward Darryl since he was clearly the best hitter for the ‘88 team. Strawberry had four home runs and 10 RBIs in the series. 

While Doc was great on the mound, the team also got great performances from Cone and Ojeda.

What’s Next

The 1988 Mets will await the winner of the 2022 Mets against the 1998 Mets for the big trophy.

The post Mets Madness Recap: 1988 Mets Head to Championship appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Armed with a World Champion pitching staff, Mike Lloyd still had control of his 1969 Mets. Fresh off beating the 1997 Mets, Mike was tasked with beating arguably the best Mets team to never win a World Series. 

Game 1

Tom Seaver vs David Cone. Round 1 went to David Cone. Cone went seven innings, allowed only one run, and struck out 12 batters. Seaver gave up a pair of homers to Howard Johnson and also gave up a big two-run double to Keith Hernandez. The ’69 Mets made a run late in the eighth, but Roger McDowell ended Game 1 with a win for the ’88 squad. 

1988: 8, 1969: 4

Game 2

Dwight Gooden vs Gary Gentry. Mike went bold and used Gentry instead of Jerry Koosman, and the move paid off. Gentry went 8 1/3 scoreless innings in a 1-0 win for the ’69 club. Gooden gave up an RBI single to Art Shamsky in the sixth, and that was all Gentry needed. Tug McGraw got the final two outs for the ’69 Mets, and Mike, emboldened by his decisions to start Gentry over Koosman, threw out a “Ya Gotta Believe.” The series was tied 1-1. 

1969: 1, 1988: 0

Game 3

Koosman vs Bobby Ojeda. Ojeda bent but never broke, giving up one run over six innings. Koosman, on the other hand, gave up six, including a homer to Howard Johnson and one to Kevin McReynolds. McReynolds added another later in the game to make it 10-1. The 1988 Mets took a 2-1 series lead. 

1988: 10, 1969: 1

Game 4

Nolan Ryan vs Sid Fernandez. A bad inning by Fernandez, and that was all Ryan needed. Sid gave up four in the third, thanks in part to a two-run double by Bobby Pfeil. He managed to pull together six innings but also had six walks along the way. Nolan Ryan had 6 2/3 innings, surrendering just one-run and nine strikeouts. Despite that, it was a 4-2 game, and Mike, taking no chances and staring at a 4-2 deficit, brought Tug in for a five-out save. With the young arms being his savior, Mike Lloyd told reporters after the game that the ’69 Mets would take it to 7.

The series was tied again, this time at 2-2.

1969: 4, 1988: 2

Game 5

Cone vs Seaver, 2.0. Cone wins again. Cone put up another 6 1/3 scoreless innings with 11 strikeouts. Series total of 13 1/3 innings, one run, and 23 strikeouts. Dilip tells reporters that he would have been ready for a Game 7. Seaver surrendered just one on a wild pitch, but a late two-run double by Lenny Dykstra put the game out of hand. Cone gave way to Ron Darling, who took the role of relief ace this series, put up 1 2/3 scoreless innings himself, and then gave way to Randy Myers for a 3-2 series lead.

1988: 3, 1969: 0

Game 6

Gooden vs Gentry again. Gooden was bending but not breaking, but he finally broke by giving up an RBI triple to Cleon Jones. Despite it being a 1-0 game, Gentry’s 14 2/3 innings-scoreless streak put a dent in the team morale. Dilip stuck with Doc with the intent of saving everyone for a Game 7. Suddenly, though, Kevin McReynolds led off the seventh with a homer, and it was a tied game. Ron Darling got up and Mike rushed to get Nolan Ryan up. Ryan and Gentry managed to get through the seventh but with Ryan on fumes, Mike went to Tug McGraw after Ryan walked Mookie Wilson to start the eighth. McGraw got Keith and Straw, but McReynolds decided then to make himself the MVP of the series (at least tying himself with Cone). McReynolds hit his second homer in as many innings to give the ’88 Mets a 3-1 lead.

After pitching a scoreless seventh, Ron Darling pitched a scoreless eighth, and it went to the ninth, where Mike had to bring in Ron Taylor. Taylor got some outs but met Gary Carter with a man-on and two-outs. Carter said the series was is, though, and homered off Taylor for a 5-1 Mets lead, which had Mike conceding the series in the Zoom call. Randy Myers got the last three outs; Dilip doused in champagne, smiled wide but saw the 2006 Mets waiting for him next week.

1988: 5, 1969: 1

MVP

Tough to pick. Gary Carter hit .450/.455/.600, Kevin McReynolds hit .280/.303/.760(!), and even Ron Darling had 5 2/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever. That said, I think Cone’s performance is too good to pass up on. Cone’s final line for the series: 13.1 IP, 8 H, ER, 4 BB, and 23 Ks. 

What’s Next

The 2022 Mets will meet the 1998 Mets in the final four. On the other side of the bracket, the 1998 Mets will play the 2006 Mets.

The post Mets Madness Recap: 1988 Upsets 1969 in Six Games appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: RHP, B/T: R/R
Age: 28 (5/31/1995)

2023 Traditional Stats: 21 G, 6-6, 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 128 IP, 107 K
2023 Advanced Stats: 2.1 fWAR, 3.87 FIP, 4.77 xERA, 20.1 K%, 6.4 BB%

Photo by David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Rundown

Despite never being a fireballer, Bieber has managed to get solid results. Even when he won the Cy Young, Bieber averaged a little over 94 MPH on his fastball. In subsequent years, Bieber’s velocity has declined but he has still managed to be a good MLB pitcher. In 2022, Bieber averaged 91.6 MPH on his fastball but still managed to post a 4.8 fWAR. Bieber does not strike out guys at a Jacob deGrom level rate (in 2022, his K/9 was 8.91), but he manages to limit his walks and home runs. Despite dealing with an elbow injury this past season, Bieber still managed to post a 2.1 fWAR in 128 innings.

The question remains: if Bieber’s skillset ages well and he still has found a way to succeed without elite velocity, why is Cleveland trying to trade him? Quincy Wheeler over at Covering The Corner explained some of the reasons Cleveland could be looking to trade the righty. The TLDR summary is that Cleveland’s ownership is strapped for cash, he is not on a long-term deal, and he is coming off an elbow injury.

Now, to also play devil’s advocate, there are also the baseball reasons for his underlying numbers taking a dive since 2021. Since 2020, Bieber’s swinging strike rate and chase rate have dropped every single season and his contact rate has gone up every season. That’s a pretty clear sign to me that he has lost a lot of stuff and that he is not fooling hitters particularly well. Even if you want to chalk up his 2023 diminished numbers to his elbow injury, I don’t think an elbow injury is something that can easily be glossed over and there is still the decline from 2020 to 2022.

The good news is Bieber’s salary will still be at $12 million for only one season, and despite his diminished stuff, he still manages to get decent results. I think multiple things can be true of Bieber, he is likely not going to return to his 2019-2021 levels of production, but he is still a very good pitcher who can post a 2-3 win season with the potential of something more. The downside would be that his elbow injury acts up again or is a bigger deal than is being acknowledged, and it results in his 2024 season being a wash.

Acquisition Cost

The Guardians want to shed salary, and Bieber is still a Guardian, so I think the market is not particularly booming for him. Given what these two teams did the last time they made a trade, I think Cleveland would target some low-level lottery tickets. I do not believe the return will be particularly big, but I also do not think the Mets will be able to get him solely by taking on his contract.

My Thoughts

I think Bieber would be a nice addition, but I am also not going to cry too much if the Mets do not get him. The way I see it, the Mets will probably get another starter they can rely on and another starter who can bounce back, similar to what they hope from Luis Severino.

Given their reported interest in Lucas Giolito, I would prefer someone like Bieber over Giolito, assuming both are seen as bounce-back candidates. If Bieber has a bad season, then it is only for one year. If Bieber bounces back, he could be a major reason in helping the Mets contend during 2024. This seems like the epitome of a low-risk, high-reward move that would behoove the Mets.

The post Trade Profile: Shane Bieber, RHP appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Position: IF/DH, B/T: R/R
Age: 38 (11/23/1984)

2023 Traditional Stats: 626 PA, .276/.345/.455, 154 H, 23 HR, 96 RBI
2023 Advanced Stats: 114 wRC+, 17.6 K%, 8.1 BB%, .346 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, 1.2 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR

Rundown

I feel like I wrote a profile on Justin Turner in 2020, and the feeling was: “Please not another old guy.” From 2021-2023, Turner has slashed .277/.352/.455 and averaged 21 homers a season. He’s not quite the guy he was from 2017-2020, but he possesses a skillset that ages quite well and fits the Mets in many ways.

Offensively, Turner remained quite good at not chasing pitches out of the zone. He only chased 29.6% of pitches he saw in 2023. For his career, he has only swung at 27.2% of pitches out of the zone. He still makes a ton of zone-contact and does not really swing-and-miss. Those two diminishing would have hinted at a slower bat speed, but those numbers actually went from 86.7% to 91% and 8.8% to 7%, respectively.

An early adopter of the launch angle revolution, Turner still approaches the game to pull lots of fly balls in the air. Turner’s ground-ball rate has never crept up over 37% since 2015. Turner’s approach to hitting is very much a process over results approach. Back in 2017, Turner said: “If I fly out four times, I had a great night, because I didn’t hit a ground ball.” I wanted to note this quote because I think, by all accounts, the Mets are trying to move towards more analytics on their coaching staff after a more old-school staff in 2022-2023. The players have had moments where they have, shall we say, shown a resistance to using analytics in their process. Do I want the Mets to sign Justin Turner because he would help integrate analytics to the players? No. Do I think it would be an added bonus to have a well-respected and vocal veteran helping his teammates see the value of using analytics to improve their process at the plate? Yes.

While Turner’s season may appear as “fine,” I think some context is missing. Until 8/31, Turner was slashing .287/.357/.488 with a .363 wOBA and 126 wRC+. In September, he slashed .221/.286/.295. Father time is undefeated, and a 38-year-old Turner was probably drained by September. I think with more rest to get him through the season, Turner’s strong approach at the plate should be able to overcome whatever natural decline that he ends up facing.

Now, there is the question of how the Mets can use him. Brett Baty was a highly touted prospect last season and I am not sure the Mets want to move him while his stock is as low as it is. With that said, I don’t think they will be handing him the starting job without any sort of viable backup. If Baty can show he’s a viable third baseman, Turner will still be able to get playing time as a DH and occasional first baseman. If Baty cannot improve from 2023, Turner can fill in until he is ready, or the Mets can find a better long-term answer. Turner’s defense at third is probably where he’s seen the biggest decline, but given the options of veteran third baseman, I still think Turner is the best one.

Contract

Turner passed on his $13.4 million player option but received a $6.7 million buyout. I’d venture he’s in the market for a final 2-year deal or would accept something along the lines of $14-$16 million on a one-year deal. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to get a one-year deal worth $16 million.

Recommendation 

Well, if David Stearns called me for my opinion, I’d be on board. Turner, by all accounts, should be an upgrade over the traditional veteran bats they employed in recent seasons. As I mentioned above, Turner is still a good hitter and he should see his numbers improve when being used more effectively. The only real concern for me is his defense, but if the Mets are not ready to close the book on Brett Baty but still want a fallback option, Turner is still one of the top options who fit that bill.

The post MMO Free Agent Profile: Justin Turner, IF appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Jett Williams – Ed Delany

The Minor Leagues are now underway for the 2023 season and we’ve put together a recap of how a slew of New York Mets prospects fared on Friday.

Syracuse saw their game against Rochester postponed on Friday.

Double-A: Portland Sea Dogs (2-0) 2, Binghamton Rumble Ponies (0-2) 0 Box Score

• 2B Wyatt Young: 1-for-4, 2 K, .125/.125/.125
• C Hayden Senger: 1-for-3, 2 K, .186/.267/.186

It was a quiet night for Binghamton. The Rumble Ponies just managed four baserunners in their shutout loss to Portland. Not too many notable performances in this one.

• RHP Dominic Hamel: 3.1 IP, H, 4 BB, 7 K
• RHP Sammy Tavarez: 1.2 IP, H, R (0 ER), BB, 2 K
• LHP Nathan Lavender: 2 IP, 2 H, ER, BB, 3 K
• RHP Nolan Clenney: 1 IP

Dominic Hamel made his Binghamton debut in this one. The 2021 third rounder got seven of his 10 outs via the strikeout but did walk four along the way. Stuff has always been there but command has always been the next key. Lavender struck out 67 guys in 47.2 innings last season and he is left-handed.

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (1-0) 9, Jersey Shore BlueClaws (0-1) 8 Box Score

• C Kevin Parada: 1-for-3, R, 3 BB, 2 K, .333/.667/.333
• CF Alex Ramírez: 1-for-6, R, 2 K, .167/.167/.167
•  3B Jaylen Palmer: 0-for-2, 3 R, RBI, 4 BB, K, .000/.667/.000

The Cyclones managed 12 walks in this one. Seven came from two of their notable prospects, Parada and Palmer. Overall, it was a solid first night offensively for the Cyclones. King of the Exit Velocity, Stanley Consuegra managed a double in this one (went 1-for-5 overall).

• RHP Raimon Gomez: 0.2 IP, H, 4 R (3 ER), 2 BB, K
• RHP Trey McLoughlin: 2.1 IP, 5 H, K
• RHP Cameron Foster: 2.2 IP, 3 H, ER, 2 BB, K
• LHP Daniel Juarez: 1 IP, H, BB
• RHP Paul Gervase: 2 IP, H, R (0 ER), 2 BB, 5 K
• RHP Joshua Cornielly: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R (ER), BB
• RHP Wilkin Ramos: 1 IP, K

Seemed to be an all hands on deck type performance. Their starter only got two outs but the rest of the pen managed to win the game for Brooklyn.

Single-A: Daytona Tortugas (1-0) 7, St. Lucie Mets (0-1) 6 Box Score

• SS Jett Williams: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI, 2 K, .200/.200/.800
• 1B Jacob Reimer: 3-for-4, R, RBI, BB, K, .750/.800/.750

Two of the Mets’ top-5 picks from 2022 shined in this one. Jett Williams hit a 97 MPH fastball for a homer in his first game of the season.

Jett Williams is off to a fast start in his full-season debut!

The @Mets' No. 5 prospect — last year's 14th overall Draft pick — homers for the @stluciemets. pic.twitter.com/3uAwcsy04l

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 7, 2023

Reimer is an interesting prospect of his own and managed a good performance in this one as well.

• RHP Jordany Ventura: 1.2IP, 2 H, 3 ER, 6 BB, K
• RHP Joey Lancellotti: 1.1 IP, K
• RHP Jawilme Ramirez: 4.2 IP, 3 H, ER, 2 BB, 8 K
• LHP Brian Gursky: 1.1 IP, H, R (0 ER), 2 BB, K
• RHP Benito Garcia: 2 IP, H, 2 R (0 ER), BB

Jawilme Ramirez, a prospect who seems to be gaining traction, had 14 whiffs on 34 swings (41%) on Friday. He also topped out at 96 per statcast. Aside from him, there were not a lot of notable performances in St. Lucie’s first game.

The post Mets Minors Recap: Jett Williams Homers in First Game, Hamel with Solid Start appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Jul 18, 2022; Los Angeles, CA, USA; National League relief pitcher Edwin Diaz (39) of the New York Mets speaks during media availabilities at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Allow me to channel my inner Brad Pitt for a second and get this out of the way: “Guys you’re still trying to replace Díaz and we can’t do it. Now what we might be able to do is recreate him, recreate him in the aggregate.” Here is the spoiler to this article, at this current moment in the middle of March, they do not need to trade for Alexis Díaz or David Bednar.

If the Mets did decide to go down the trade route, however, our own Jack Markowski looked at potential trade targets. And, yes, both the younger Díaz and Bednar are included in that list.

Win Probability Added (WPA on FanGraphs) is a cumulative statistic that adds how much win probability a player adds over the course of the season. I like this stat to measure a team’s bullpen and relievers in general because it does not punish relievers for a few bad outings and it gives them more credit than WAR for their in-game contributions.

Relievers have an enormous impact in terms of their ability to sway game by game outcomes and WPA reflects that more than WAR. No reliever really came close in terms of being in the top of the WAR leaderboards, but five out of the top-10 pitchers in terms of WPA were relievers.

Okay, so here is the good news. The Mets bullpen was 11th in baseball in terms of WPA in 2022. Here is the bad news: Edwin Díaz had a 3.60 WPA while everyone else combined for -0.57 WPA. The piece of good news Mets fans can be happy with though is that David Robertson had a 2.63 WPA and Brooks Raley had a 1.09 WPA in 2022. Adam Ottavino had a more mediocre 0.49 WPA but some amount of regression in the positive direction should help the veteran righty. Ottavino had a 1.24 FIP in low leverage spots, a 4.28 FIP in medium leverage spots, and 4.57 FIP in high leverage spots last year. The sample size was quite larger in low leverage spots so one can hope/expect that a more balanced performance in medium and high leverage situations will lead to a higher WPA for Ottavino.

Add that to the fact the Mets have more relievers with options which should help them avoid leaving guys who are struggling on the Major League roster. The bottom of the Mets bullpen combined for a -2.56 WPA, and the regulars like Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Joely Rodriguez, and Drew Smith all had negative WPAs.

Aside from Robertson, Ottavino, and Raley, the Mets will not have a lot of relievers that should and will get a long leash on the roster. For example, I really like John Curtiss but if the Curtiss experiment does not work out, the Mets can be a lot more decisive than they were with say, Seth Lugo. This is why I am not all aboard the Zack Britton train. They have been heavily going in on getting relievers they can cycle through in an attempt to find the best bullpen. Britton feels like a move for the sake of making a move and he could be an arm they hang onto for longer than they should.

The Mets still have a bullpen with effective arms and they can more than hold the fort down until the deadline. Also just looking at the top bullpens from last year, the Astros, Mariners, Yankees, and Dodgers did not have a Díaz type arm in their bullpen. All of those bullpens were built on amassing failed starters, waiver claims, and unearthing arms in trades.

At the end of the day, replacing 60 innings of a high leverage reliever like Díaz is easier than replacing one of their top three starters or one of their top five hitters. The Mets still have high expectations and they should have confidence in their existing high leverage arms to step up to start the season. As Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs shows in his article, the Mets playoff percentage is still at a very high 77.7% and their World Series percentage only dropped 1.4%. The Mets would have been great with Díaz, but they will still manage to be very good without Díaz in 2023.

The post How The Mets Can Replace Edwin Díaz appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

No. 1 Francisco Álvarez, C

B/T: R/R     Age: November 19, 2001 (21)
Ht: 5’10″       Wt: 233 lb.
ETA: 2023 Previous Rank: 1
Acquired: Signed during the 2018 International Free Agency Period
2022 Stats (AA/AAA): 112 games, 495 PAs, 22 2B, 27 HR, 78 RBIs, 70 BB, 123 K, .260/.374/.511/.885

Probably to no one’s surprise, Francisco Álvarez is the Mets top prospect for the third consecutive season. Signed during the 2018 International Free Agency Period, Álvarez has skyrocketed in the prospect rankings. The rise started when it became clear that he would be an impact bat at a premium position.

Last season, Álvarez began the season at Double-A and slashed .277/.368/.553 for roughly the first three months of the season. The Mets then moved him to Triple-A in early July and there were some early struggles for Álvarez. He hit .186/.314/.339 in August but he rebounded to hit .362/.486/.596 in September.

The Mets called him up for their big series against the Braves in late September when it became abundantly clear that he was their best option to DH vs lefties. He got 14 plate appearances between that series and the last series against the Nationals. He also managed to land on the postseason roster but did not get the start at DH against Blake Snell. Álvarez underwent ankle surgery in the offseason after missing some time with an ankle injury last season.

Here are some of the good things about Álvarez from his write-up blurbs from Keith Law and MLB Pipeline:

“Álvarez knows the zone well and will take his walks — also like many young hitters, he’s still working overall on swing decisions. The combination of loud contact and ever-improving approach could make him an above-average hitter in the end.” – MLB Pipeline

“He has a tremendous swing for generating that hard contact, with great balance throughout, excellent hand acceleration, and good use of his lower half to drive the ball.” – Keith Law

FanGraphs expressed some amount of caution against Álvarez’s bat, saying:

“Álvarez only ran a 75% Z-contact and 66% overall contact rate in the minors, which is near the bottom of the big league catching continuum, and almost identical to Joey Bart and Jorge Alfaro.”

FanGraphs did remind everyone that Álvarez has a way better approach than Alfaro and way more power than Bart so do not be too alarmed by those invocations. The skinny on Álvarez’s offense is that he will hit for a lot of power and his swing decisions will decide whether or not he can be one of the best offensive catchers in baseball or an above average one. I know that can be said about most prospects but it does speak to the expected power output (and the lack of offense at catcher) for Álvarez that his offense can be carried by that almost by itself.

Just to get an idea of Álvarez’s bat, in 2022 MLB catchers hit .222/.295/.367 with a .293 wOBA and 89 wRC+. ZiPS. FanGraph’s projections has a 21 year old Álvarez hitting .220/.318/.411 with 21 homers and a .319 wOBA. Some fans may not be overly impressed by that overall slash but remember, ZiPS is a projection system so it is meant to weigh the good and the bad. It is also accounting for a 21 year old with roughly 200 plate appearances at AAA, where he did not exactly tear it up, to step into the majors tomorrow. Despite that, it still projects Álvarez to be an above average offensive catcher on day one in the major leagues.

Francisco Álvarez makes his Grapefruit League catching debut. 👀 pic.twitter.com/GawYUeg8mF

— Mets Player Development (@MetsPlayerDev) March 3, 2023

Now regarding his defense, the Mets did not let Álvarez catch any starts from Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Bassitt. While Álvarez is a big body catcher and not as athletic as say, J.T. Realmuto, he has taken strides with his defense. Despite that, the general consensus with Álvarez is that his defense will likely be average to below-average.

Keith Law of The Athletic had this to say about his defense: “Scouts were more bearish on his defense when he moved to Triple A and had to catch better stuff, although the consensus is still that he can stay there, even just as a bat-first catcher who could stand to clean up some of his blocking and receiving.”

That seems to be the sentiment based on his other prospect blurbs from FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline and well, the Mets actions this off-season. By signing Omar Narváez and giving Tomás Nido an extension, both of whom are rated as good defenders, they have pretty much decided that Álvarez will not be in the Majors until they feel that he is ready to handle the big league pitching staff.

On the one hand, the Syracuse pitching staff should have plenty of MLB caliber arms so that should help Álvarez improve his receiving and framing. On the other hand, Narváez is not going to be easily displaced, judging by his contract. The Mets have some veteran pitchers on their staff and teams have historically given their star pitchers preference to personal catchers. It should not be a surprise to anyone if Scherzer and Justin Verlander strongly prefer working with Narváez and Nido, which in turn could cause Álvarez to be in AAA longer than he needs to be.

If Álvarez’s bat is too good to keep in the minors and he’s ready to handle the MLB staff, I would bet they go with three catchers and essentially have Álvarez replace Darin Ruf as the DH against lefties while catching regularly when he is not a DH.

Álvarez is close to being a regular in the Majors but it won’t be on Opening Day (barring an injury). I think he will force his way up by June at some point though and, hopefully, he will run away with the job.

The post MMO Top 30 Prospects: No. 1 Francisco Álvarez appeared first on Metsmerized Online.