David Stearns. Photo by Mike De Sisti

With the World Series over and the offseason officially underway, it’s time to take inventory of how much payroll the Mets already have committed heading into the winter.

Simple Guaranteed Contracts

• OF Brandon Nimmo | 8 yrs/$162.0M (2023-2030) [$20.25M AAV]
• OF Starling Marte | 4 yrs/$78.0M (2022-2025) [$19.50M AAV]
• RHP Kodai Senga | 5 yrs/$75.0M (2023-2028) [$15.00M AAV]
• RHP Jose Quintana | 2 yrs/$26.0M (2023-2024) [$13.00M AAV]
• IF/OF Jeff McNeil | 4 yrs/$50.0M (2023-2026) + $15.25M club option for 2027 or $2.0M buyout [$12.50M AAV]

Total Salary Guaranteed Contracts: $80.25M

For MLB Luxury Tax calculation purposes, salaries for players on guaranteed deals are determined by the Average Annual Values of their contracts. An easy simple ($/years) calculation. One thing to keep in mind though is how option years and/or buy-outs are calculated.

Contracts with player options are considered guaranteed years and as such the AAV calculation will include the option year. All other options (club, vesting, mutual) are considered non-guaranteed. Any buyouts associated with these options are included in the AAV calculation but the options themselves are not.

For example, Jeff McNeil’s contract pays him $48 million during the life of the contract, however, since it has a $2.0M buyout with his 2027 club option, the AAV ends up being $12.50M instead.

Brooks Raley. Photo by Roberto Carlo

• LHP Brooks Raley | 1 yr/$6.5M via exercised club option, $1.25M buyout not used (2024) [$5.25M AAV]
• C Omar Narváez | 1 yr/$7.0M via exercised player option [$7.50M AAV]

Total Option Year Contracts: $12.75M

These are generally the same as the previous category, however, the flipside of how buyouts are included in AAVs fall out here. Since Raley’s 2024 option buyout was already included in previous AAV calculations but were not used, the Mets may now take a credit for the buyout amounts in the option year season. So Raley’s AAV impact is reduced by $1.25M.

Likewise, for Narvaez, his $7.0M player option was included in the original AAV calculation on his 2023 contract as a 2 yr/$15.0M deal so the $7.50M AAV carries over to 2024.

Francisco Lindor. Photo by Roberto Carlo

Guaranteed Contracts With Deferrals 

• SS Francisco Lindor | 10 yrs/$341.0M with $50M deferred (2022-2031) [$32.35M AAV]
• RHP Edwin Díaz | 5 yrs/$102.0M with $26.5M deferred (2023-2027) [$17.38M AAV]

Total Deferral Contracts: $49.73M

Alright, folks strap in, grab some paper, and a pen as we take a trip down Financial Accounting 401. For any contract that includes deferred compensation, a standard $/years AAV approach cannot be used. This is because of a concept known as the “time value of money (TVM)”. Said in its simplest terms, money is worth more now than it will be at a future date due to its earnings potential.”

We are all suffering through inflation in our personal lives as we speak so I think we can all understand that a dollar right now can’t get you as much as a dollar did 10 years ago.

With this in mind, in order to factor in this devaluation of money, for AAV purposes, deferrals on a contract must be recalculated and factored in based on their “net present value (NPV).” This in turn generates a cost savings for teams against the luxury tax based on three main factors:

1.) How much money is deferred.

2.) How long the money is deferred for.

3.) The discount rate applied at the time of contract signing [Generally based on JP Morgan Bank’s Prime Rate].

For Lindor, $50 million of his compensation ($5M per year) is being deferred for 10 years and discounted at 4.0%. So the NPV of his $50.0M is only $32.48, a $17.52M luxury tax savings across 10 years (-$1.75M AAV reduction). So, instead of his contract having a $34.10M AAV, the team is only hit for $32.35M.

For Díaz, although only $26.5M of his compensation is being deferred, it is being deferred at a 7.0% discount rate, and for a time frame ranging from 10-to-15 years. So, the NPV of his $26.5M is only $11.39M, a $15.11M savings across 5 years (-$3.02M AAV reduction) reducing his AAV from $20.40M to $17.38M

For Ottavino, since his option is of the player controlled variety, his 2024 salary and associated deferrals were included in last year’s calculation, thus the AAV carries over. In total, $8.0M of his 2023-2024 salaries are being deferred at a 7.5% discount rate, and for a time frame ranging from 4 to 7 years. So, the NPV of his $8.0M is only $3.10M, a $4.90M savings across 2 years (-$2.450M AAV reduction) reducing his AAV from $7.25M to $4.80M.

Max Scherzer. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Dead Money

• RHP Justin Verlander | 2 yrs/$86.6M (2023-2024) + $35M conditional player option for 2025, $16.98M on Astros books for 2024 and $17.5M in 2025 if option vests and is exercised [$26.36M AAV]
• RHP Max Scherzer | 3 yrs/$130.0M (2022-2024), $16.8M on Rangers books for 2024 [$26.53M AAV]
• C James McCann | 4 yrs/$40.6M (2021-2024), $650k on Orioles books for 2024 [$9.50M AAV]
• RHP Adam Ottavino | 1 yrs/$7.75M (2023) + $6.75M player option with $8M total deferrals. (Player option declined. $0.86M balancing adjustment) [$0.86M]

Total Dead Money: $63.25M

Now, for the depressing part of this segment, the flip side of the trades former general manager Billy Eppler made last season. At the deadline, the Mets sent Scherzer + $35.5M to the Rangers and Verlander + $35.0M to the Astros.

For MLB Luxury Tax purposes, the pro-rated amount of remaining salaries on both contracts are used to determine the cash impact split between 2023 and 2024. So, for Scherzer, that means 74.7% of the cash the Mets sent are on the books for 2024, and for Verlander, 75.3% of the cash applies.

Since McCann was traded before the season began, the $19M of cash sent with him is a more simplistic standard AAV calculation spreading it across the 2 yrs that were remaining on his deal.

{Updated 11/6/2023}

Oh boy…..as if payroll isn’t complicated enough….

With Ottavino declining his 2024 player option, an obscure luxury tax “balancing adjustment” is going to affect the Mets payroll for 2024. When Ottavino signed his contract, his player option was considered a “guaranteed” year for luxury tax purposes. On top of that $8M of the total $14.5M in the contract were deferred for payment between 2025 and 20235. As a result the calculated AAV was only $5.63M each year instead of the simple math amount of $7.25M.

With Ottavino off the books now, we need to recalculate what the AAV would have been for only the 1 yr of pay + deferrals. The difference between this calculation and the original AAV calculation is the “balancing adjustment” the Mets will need to account for in 2024. Nerdy mathematics below!

Pete Alonso. Photo by Roberto Carlo

Arbitration Contracts (estimated per MLB Trade Rumors)

• 1B Pete Alonso | Arbitration Year 3 ($22.00M)
• DH Daniel Vogelbach | Arb 3 ($2.60M)
• IF Luis Guillorme | Arb 3 [Super 2] ($1.70M)
• RHP Drew Smith | Arb 3 ($2.30M)
• RHP Joey Lucchesi | Arb 2 ($2.00M)
• RHP Trevor Gott | Arb 3 ($2.00M)
• RHP Sam Coonrod | Arb 2 ($0.90M)
• LHP David Peterson | Arb 1 ($2.00M)
• OF D.J. Stewart | Arb 1 [Super 2] ($1.50M)
• RHP Jeff Brigham | Arb 1 ($1.10M)

Total Arbitration Contracts: $38.10M

Once a player reaches three years of service time (or two for players with “super 2 status”), their salaries for subsequent seasons, until they reach six years of service time, are determined based by an arbitrator based on their career and prior season performances in relation to their peers who have also gone through arbitration. Unless of course, the two sides agree to a deal before the hearing is scheduled to occur.

Alonso’s arbitration situation is certainly the most important one for the team. While the arbitration number is high, the Mets could theoretically combine the arbitration year with a potential extension to try and reduce the future AAV impact of said deal.

While Lucchesi and Peterson seem like locks to remain with the team at their estimated prices, a case can be made for everyone to be non-tendered by the team thus savings ~$12.1M in salary.

Francisco Álvarez. Photo by Roberto Carlo

MLB/MiLB Renewable Minimum Salary Contracts

$740k if on MLB roster or $120.6k if on MiLB roster ($60.3k if first time on a 40 man roster)

• C Francisco Álvarez
• IF Ronny Mauricio
• SS Luisangel Acuña
• 3B/LF Brett Baty
• DH Mark Vientos
• LHP Josh Walker
• RHP Tylor Megill
• RHP José Butto
• RHP Phil Bickford
• RHP Penn Murfee
• RHP Reed Garrett
• RHP Grant Hartwig
• RHP Sean-Reid Foley

Total Renewable Contracts: $5.90M

Any player with less than three years of service time is subject to team-controlled renewable contracts. While teams can certainly choose to pay their pre-arbitration players more than MLB/MiLB minimum, they are under no requirement to do so.

Other MLB Luxury Tax Requirements

1/30th of the Player Benefits Pool | $17.9M
1/30th of the Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool | $1.67M

Total Other: $19.57M

The final piece of the luxury tax calculation is something the teams have no control over. The player benefits pool and pre-arbitration bonus pools are both financial pieces negotiated as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Funding for these two pools are split evenly between all 30 MLB teams.

Final Total MLB Luxury Tax Payroll: $269.55M

Not only are the Mets already walking into the off-season already over the 2024 luxury tax line of $237M; they’re already estimated to be in the second-level of penalties with only ~$2.7M of space before third-level penalties before making a single move.

With sheer number of holes in the rotation and bullpen that need to be filled if the team is going to be competitive, there is a very high probability that the Mets will once again hit the special Steve Cohen fourth-tier of penalties for the 2nd season in a row. This will come with a 110% tax on every dollar spent over $297M.

The post Mets’ Current 2024 Payroll Breakdown Ahead Of The Offseason appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

We’ve updated the previous piece to include the signings of Brandon Nimmo and David Robertson. 

With the Winter Meetings wrapped up, it’s time to take inventory of how much payroll the Mets have added with their signings of multiple starting pitchers, a trade for a legitimate high-leverage lefty reliever, and a Rule 5 Draft selection.

The additions help fill the massive voids left behind by the numerous players who reached free agency this winter, but, it also tacks on a huge expense to an already massive payroll for the 2023 season.

Last season, the Mets finished the year with a franchise-record $286.55M payroll (for MLB luxury tax purposes), and with Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Brooks Raley, and Zach Greene in the fold, they have already broken that record again, and seem guaranteed to exceed a $300M payroll.

Let’s take a quick look at how the 2023 payroll looks as of right now.

Simple Guaranteed Contracts

• RHP Max Scherzer | 3 yrs/$130.0M (2022-2024) [$43.33M AAV]
• RHP Justin Verlander | 2 yrs/$86.6M (2023-2024) [$43.33M AAV]
• OF Brandon Nimmo | 8 yrs/$162.0M (2023-2030) [$20.25M AAV]
• OF Starling Marte | 4 yrs/$78.0M (2022-2025) [$19.50M AAV]
• OF Mark Canha | 2 yrs/$26.5M (2022-2023) [$13.25M AAV]
• RHP Jose Quintana | 2 yrs/$26.0M (2023-204 [$13.00M AAV]
• C James McCann | 4 yrs/$40.6M (2021-2024) [$10.15M AAV]
• IF Eduardo Escobar | 2 yrs/$20.0M (2022-2023) [$10.00M AAV]
• RHP David Robertson | 1 yr/$10.0M (2023) [$10.0M AAV]
• LHP Brooks Raley | 2 yrs/$8.75M + $6.5M club option or $1.25M buyout (2022-2023) [$5.75M AAV]
• 1B/OF Darin Ruf | 2 yrs/$6.0M + $3.5M club option or $250k buyout (2022-2023) [$3.125M AAV]

Total Salary Guaranteed Contracts: $191.69M

For MLB Luxury Tax calculation purposes, salaries for players on guaranteed deals are determined by the Average Annual Values of their contracts. An easy simple ($$/years) calculation. One thing to keep in mind though is how option years and/or buy-outs are calculated. Contracts with Players Options are considered guaranteed years and as such the AAV calculation will include the option year. All other options (Club, Vesting, Mutual) are considered non-guaranteed. Any buyouts associated with these options are included in the AAV calculation but the options themselves are not.

For example, Darin Ruf’s two-year, $6 million deal pays him $3 million per season, however, since it has a $250k buy-out with his 2024 club option, the AAV ends up being $3.125M instead.

One oddity as a result of the new CBA…per Matt Gelb of the Athletic, any player traded with guaranteed money still on their contract has their AAV impact re-calculated based on how much money is remaining on the deal. So for Brooks Raley, his 2023 AAV hit on the payroll is his 2023 $4.5M salary + the $1.25M buyout on his 2024 club option.

Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Guaranteed Contracts from Option Years

• 1B/DH Daniel Vogelbach | 1 yr/$1.5M via exercised club option, $200k buyout not used (2023) [$1.3M AAV]
• RHP Carlos Carrasco | 1 yr/$14.0M via exercised club option, $3.0M buyout not used (2023) [$11.0M AAV]
• RHP John Curtiss | 1 yr/$775k (2023) [$0.775M AAV]

Total Option Year Contracts: $13.075M

These are generally the same as the previous category, however, the flipside of how buyouts are included in AAVs fall out here. Since Vogelbach and Carrasco’s 2023 option buyouts were already included in previous AAV calculations but were not used, the Mets may now take a credit for the buy-out amounts in the option year season. So Vogelbach’s AAV impact is reduced by $200k and Cookie’s by $3 million.

Guaranteed Contracts with Deferrals

• SS Francisco Lindor | 10 yrs/$341.0M with $50M deferred (2022-2031) [$32.348M AAV]
• RHP Edwin Diaz | 5 yrs/$102.0M with $26.5M deferred (2023-2027) [$17.378M AAV]

Total Deferral Contracts: $49.726M

Alright, folks strap in, grab some paper, and a pen as we take a trip down Financial Accounting 401. For any contract that includes deferred compensation, a standard $$/years AAV approach cannot be used. This is because of a concept known as the “time value of money (TVM)”. Said in its simplest terms, “money is worth more now than it will be at a future date due to its earnings potential”. We are all suffering through inflation in our personal lives as we speak so I think we can all understand that a dollar right now can’t get you as much as a dollar did 10 years ago.

With this in mind, in order to factor in this devaluation of money, for AAV purposes, deferrals on a contract must be recalculated and factored in based on their “Net Present Value (NPV)”. This in turn generates a cost savings for teams against the luxury tax based on three main factors…(A) how much money is deferred, (B) How long the money is deferred for, and (C) the discount rate applied at the time of contract signing [Generally based on JP Morgan Bank’s Prime Rate].

For Lindor, $50 million of his compensation ($5M per year) is being deferred for 10 years and discounted at 4.0%. So the NPV of his $50.0M is only $32.479, a ~$17.521M luxury tax savings across 10 years (-$1.752M AAV reduction). So instead of his contract having a $34.1M AAV, the team is only hit for $32.348M.

For Diaz, although only $26.5M of his compensation is being deferred, it is being deferred at a 7.0% discount rate, and for a time frame ranging from 10 to 15 years. So, the NPV of his $26.5M is only $11.391M, a $15.108M savings across 5 years (-$3.021M AAV reduction) reducing his AAV from $20.4M to $17.378M

Dead Money

• 2B Robinson Cano | 10 yrs/$240.0M (2014-2023), $3.75M paid by Mariners [$20.25M AAV]

Total Dead Money: $20.25M

Yup, he’s still around hurting the Mets. This is the final year of Cano’s contract so we can all finally rejoice when this comes off the books at the end of the season. If another team finds some reason to sign him to their MLB roster, the Mets would gain a small $3,846.15 benefit for each day he’s on a roster. They picked up $158k thanks to the Padres and Braves last year.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Arbitration Contracts (estimates per MLB Trade Rumors)

• 1B Pete Alonso | Arbitration Year 2 ($15.90M)
• 2B/OF Jeff McNeil | Arb 2 ($6.20M)
• RHP Elieser Hernandez | Arb 2 ($1.80M)
• C Tomas Nido | Arb 2 ($1.60M)
• IF Luis Guillorme | Arb 2 [Super 2] ($1.50M)
• RHP Drew Smith | Arb 2 ($1.20M)
• RHP Joey Lucchesi | Arb 2 ($1.15M)
• RHP Jeff Brigham | Arb 1 ($0.80M)

Total Arbitration Contracts: $30.15M

Once a player reaches three years of service time (or two for players with Super 2 Status), their salaries for subsequent seasons, until they reach six years of service time, are determined based by an arbitrator based on their career and prior season performances in relation to their peers who have also gone through arbitration.

Most of the time, these arbitration cases are settled at a mid-point between what the player wants and what the team wants. By doing so, both sides avoid a painful and awkward arbitration hearing and the player guarantees his salary even in the event of being cut during spring training. If a player/team decides to go through the arbitration process, that salary is then non-guaranteed. If the player ends up being cut before the 16th day of spring training, they only get 1/6th of their salary. If the player is cut between the 16th day and the end of spring training, they only get 1/4th of their salary.

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

MLB/MiLB Renewable Minimum Salary Contracts

$720k if on MLB roster or $117.4k if on MiLB roster ($58.7k if first time on a 40 man roster)

• OF Khalil Lee
• 3B Brett Baty
• LHP David Peterson
• RHP Tylor Megill
• RHP Stephen Nogosek
• LHP Tayler Saucedo
• C Francisco Alvarez
• 3B Mark Vientos
• SS Ronny Mauricio
• RHP Jose Butto
• RHP Bryce Montes de Oca
• RHP Yoan Lopez
• RHP William Woods
• RHP Stephen Ridings
• RHP Zach Greene

Total Renewable Contracts: $4.406M

Any player with less than three years of service time is subject to team-controlled renewable contracts. While teams can certainly choose to pay their pre-arbitration players more than MLB/MiLB minimum, they are under no requirement to do so.

Other MLB Luxury Tax Requirements

1/30th of the Player Benefits Pool | $17.3M
1/30th of the Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool | $1.67M

Total Other: $18.97M

The final piece of the Luxury Tax calculation is something the teams have no control over. The Player Benefits Pool and Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pools are both financial pieces negotiated as part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Funding for these two pools are split evenly between all 30 MLB teams.

Final Total MLB Luxury Tax Payroll: $326.83M + $59.84M luxury tax payment + Top 2024 Draft Pick moved back 10 spots

A staggering number considering the Mets still seemingly have another rotation spot to fill, half of the bullpen, and a desire to add at least one impact bat to the lineup. In order to fill all these needs they will most certainly need to go beyond a $300M salary, perhaps as high as $330M.

The 2024 payroll situation is no better either as I currently have it at an estimated $260.15M already with the departures of Escobar, Canha, Vogelbach, and Carrasco included.

The post Breaking Down the Mets Current 2023 Payroll appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

It’s been a very active 2021 so far for Sandy Alderson, Jared Porter, and the New York Mets as they traded for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, signed Jose Martinez, and reached agreements to avoid arbitration with all but one of their eligible players.

A lot of Steve Cohen’s money has been thrown around in the past week and for the first time in many years, there is legitimate concern about the Mets’ payroll and how it relates to the MLB’s Competitive Balance Tax, more commonly known as the Luxury Tax. First let’s understand what the Competitive Balance Tax is.

What is the Competitive Balance Tax?

Found in Article XXIII in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the CBT is a “soft” salary cap of sorts for MLB teams. Each season the CBT line is set at a specific amount as detailed in the agreement. For the 2021 season, that soft limit is set at $210,000,000 which is an increase of two million dollars from prior year. Teams can elect to exist this soft limit, but are subject to varying and increasing levels of penalties if they choose to do so.

Teams that exceed the tax line are subject to a 20% tax on the overage amount if they are a first time offender. A penalty that has be crossed pretty frequently by some of the more affluent teams in the league. If a team exceeds the tax line for a second season in a row, that overage tax jumps up to 30%. Any further concurrent violations of the tax line result in an overage tax of 50%, an achievement only the Yankees (2016, 2017), Dodgers (2016, 2017), and Phillies (2017) can claim to have reached.

Additional penalties also exist for exceeding the luxury tax line by varying dollar amounts. Any team that exceeds the line by any amount between $20M and $40M is also subject to a 12% surtax on top of the penalties above for these amounts. Want to have a payroll that exceeds the line by more than $40M? Then prepare for this additional surtax to jump up to 42.5%, or even 45% if you are are a repeat offender, of the overage amount.

As if this isn’t bad enough already, in 2018, MLB also started penalizing teams even further for achieving the highest penalty by pushing back a team’s highest available selection in the next Amateur Draft back ten places in the Draft order. Only one team has ever been hit by this penalty, the Boston Red Sox in 2018 when they finished the season with a payroll of $239.5M which exceeded that year’s line by $42.5M.

How is Luxury Tax Payroll Calculated?

For the purposes of calculating team payrolls, regardless of how much money a player is actually being paid in a season, all guaranteed contracts are valued at each contract’s “Average Annual Value.” This means that even if a player has a back-loaded or front-loaded contract, each year of that contract will be valued at the same average amount.

For players who have non-guaranteed salaries from salary arbitration or team renewable contracts, the value of the contract for that particular season is what is used for Luxury Tax purposes. Players who are in the minor leagues, but are on the 40-man roster, also count against the luxury tax line at a much lower rate than their MLB counterparts.

Contracts with deferrals included can skirt around the normal “AAV” rule by reducing the “Net Present Value” of the contract. We had a pretty lengthy discussion about this here.

On top of player salaries, teams must also include 1/30th of the annual league wide Player Benefits Pool which includes various miscellaneous expenses such as the MLBPA’s pension plan, player medical expenses, worker’s compensation, Spring Training allowances, All-Star game expenses, moving/travel expenses, college scholarship programs, etc. This amount for the 2021 season is estimated to be $15,5000,000.

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Mets’ Current Situation

While it may not feel like it, the Mets actually flirted with the luxury tax line last season finishing with the league’s sixth highest luxury tax payroll at $202 million, a mark that was only about $6 million shy of last year’s tax line (not counting for last year’s salary pro-ration).

Currently, based on our current projections found here, the Mets payroll currently sits at approximately $178.8M. An amount that sits ~$32.2M below the tax line for 2021.

Some of the more unique aspects of the payroll calculation are below:

• Jacob deGrom: 5 years/$137.5M + ’24 option with $52.5M of deferrals
  • While deGrom’s contract results in a $27.5M AAV simple calculation, the net present value of the deferrals actually reduces the payroll calculation to 5 years/$108.9M which results in a new AAV of only $21.78M. The Mets got a little lucky here as net present value calculations use a “discount rate” based on JP Morgan Chase’s prime rates available at the time. In March 2018, when deGrom signed his contract prime rates were at their highest point (5.5%) in any of the past seven years.

• Robinson Cano: 10 years/$240M
  • When Cano was traded to the Mets he had 5 years/$120M remaining on his deal at the time. The Mariners also included $20M of cash in the deal to be paid via $5M in 2019 and $3.75M increments from 2020 through 2023. As a result of his second suspension, due to PEDs, the $24M AAV impact of Cano’s salary has been cleared from the payroll, but, the $3.75M payment from the Mariners remains.

• Dellin Betances: 1 year/$7.5M + ’21 option/$6.8M (with incentives earned) or $3.0M buy-out + ’22 conditional option or $0.5M buy-out
  • One of the more unique rules of the CBA comes into play here. For the purposes of payroll calculations, Option Years ARE NOT considered guaranteed money, but, the buy-outs associated with them ARE considered guaranteed money by counting them as signing bonuses. With this in mind, Betances 2020 salary was actually his $2.2M salary + his $5.3M signing bonus + the $3.0M buy-out on his 2021 option. By NOT exercising the buy-out (even though it was included in their payroll), the Mets now have the ability to credit their 2021 payroll by that $3.0M. This means that Betances’ $6.8M salary is actually only $3.8M for luxury tax purposes. [$6.8M – $3.0M for ’22 buyout]. This could potentially rise to $4.3M later in the year if Betances pitches in 50 games and again to $4.8M if he pitches in 60 games or more.

Due to these unique adjustments, the team could potentially afford an additional large contract in the form of George Springer without needing to exceed the first level penalties of the luxury tax in 2021.

However, with key players like Michael Conforto, Francisco Lindor, Marcus Stroman, and Noah Syndergaard in the final year of their respective contracts, as well as, expected arbitration raises for numerous others…perhaps tying up more future payroll may not be the most ideal thing to do. Unless Steve Cohen has no qualms with exceeding the luxury tax in the future.

The post Mets Payroll And The Luxury Tax appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports

Liga de Beisbol Profesional de la Republica Dominicana (LIDOM)

Leones del Escogido 3, Gigantes del Cibao 1

In his fourth season as a member of the Leones, Mets right handed pitcher Franklyn Kilome finally secured his first victory in the league. Kilome had previously made six starts in the LIDOM during the 2017-2018 season, losing four of them with two no-decisions. He was slated to be a full-time member of the team’s rotation the following year but ended up missing both the 2018-19 and 2019-20 seasons after sustaining a UCL injury during pre-season camp that October.

Kilome entered the game in the top of the fifth inning and retired five of the seven batters he faced during inning and two-thirds of work despite rainy conditions. He generated three fly-outs, two ground-outs, while allowing a single up the middle to Carlos Paulino and a full-count walk to Texas Rangers first baseman Ronald Guzman. Velocity readings were not available but Kilome did end up throwing a total of twenty-six pitches of which fourteen were for strikes.

Estrellas Orientales 2, Aguilas Cibaenas 1

After an excellent opening day appearance, second baseman Robel Garcia had his second rough night in a row at the plate for the Aguilas with a 0-for-4 day at the plate with three strikeouts. Former Met, Nabil Crismatt dominated during his five innings of work allowing no runs on four hits while striking out four earning the win for the Estrellas. Another former Met, Matt Pobereyko, also tossed a scoreless inning of work with two strikeouts getting his first hold of the season in support of Crismatt.

Liga ARCO Mexicana del Pacifico (LMP)

Charros de Jalisco 12, Venados de Mazatlan 10

Making his first appearance since being deactivated on October 27th, right-handed starter Francisco Rios struggled with his command allowing five runs to score on four hits, two walks, and a wild pitch in only an inning and two-thirds of work.

Algodoneros de Guasave 5, Caneros de Los Mochis 3

Before the game, the Caneros announced that Cardinals catcher and opening day starter, Carlos Soto, was being deactivated by the team retroactive to November 6th which was the date the LMP temporarily shut down due to COVID-19 spread. This opens up more playing time for Mets minor league catcher Juan Uriarte who had been getting consistent playing time earlier in the LMP season when Soto sustained an injury that kept him out of action for almost two weeks.

Against the Algodoneros last night, Uriarte went 1-for-3 with a run scored. Defensively, he allowed one stolen base and threw out another. In his fifth year with the club so far, Uriarte is producing a career best .280 AVG/.753 OPS with one home run and four runs batted in.

The post Franklyn Kilome Picks Up Win in Dominican Winter League appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

After a four week delay to allow for COVID-19 safety measures to be implemented, the 2020-2021 LIDOM season finally kicked off last night. For the Mets, a total of ten players (listed here) are on the rosters for one of the six teams in the league, of which, five of them were on Opening Day active rosters.

One of the Mets newest players, infielder Robel Garcia, had himself a strong first night at the plate for the Aguilas Cibaenas going 1-for-3 with a home run and a walk. The Mets claimed Garcia off waivers from the Reds back in October.

Garcia played second base, while former Mets Melky Cabrera (LF) and Juan Lagares (RF) manned the corner outfield spots, and Nats youngster Victor Robles was in center.

#DeportesHOY El primer cuadrangular de la temporada ! Robel García la saca por el jardín izquierdo anotando carrera para el equipo de @aguilascibaenas #JuanFrancisco #ÁguilasCibaeñas #BéisbolInvernal #GigantesdelCibao pic.twitter.com/BBNx2DLZDm

— Periódico Hoy (@PeriodicoHoy) November 15, 2020

Mets right-hander Ariel Jurado was slated to be the Opening Day starter for the Estrellas Orientales, but the game was postponed due to rain. On the other side of that rain out was Mets catcher Bruce Maxwell for the Toros del Este.

The Leones del Escogido had the most interesting lineup to watch on Opening Day, they had baseball’s top prospect Wander Franco and top 15 prospect Julio Rodriguez in it.

Oddly enough, the winter league that should interest Mets fans the most, is the Australian League. Mets’ big-time catching prospect Francisco Alvarez will be playing with the Sydney Blue Sox, along with four other prospects from the Mets organization. Their games start on Dec. 18. ]

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(Photo by Terry Pierson, The Press-Enterprise/SCNG)

Since the Mets offered RHP Zack Wheeler a qualifying offer over the winter, the team received a Compensation Round B pick when the Philadelphia Phillies signed him.

With that pick the Mets selected OF Isaiah Greene from Corona High School in Corona, California.

Greene is among the fastest players in this year’s draft class completing the 60 yard dash speed faster than 98.7% of the 2020 draft class at the Perfect Game National Showcase. He has an athletic build with plenty of room to get stronger as he fills out his 6’1″ 180 frame.

After posting strong numbers in his sophomore season, Greene’s performance dipped in his junior season seeing his batting average drop 62 points vs prior year. He would bounce back well and began garnering a ton of attention over the  summer thanks to a superb performance at the Area Code Games. During the showcase, he produced a triple slash line of .429 AVG/.438 OBP/.714 SLG. He then went on to perform extremely well as a member of the scout team that trained with Team USA’s 18U team (the same team Patrick Crow-Armstrong was on) where some scouts felt he was the best player on the field…..including those on the National team.

According to Baseball America:

“Greene’s best asset is a smooth, left-handed stroke that turns around high-end velocity. He drives the ball hard with ease, drawing comparisons to Garret Anderson and Michael Brantley, and projects as a consensus plus hitter with a chance to hit .300 in his best years. Greene’s power is still developing, but he has plenty of room to get bigger and stronger and makes enough hard contact to project above-average power. Greene is a plus runner with a chance to stay in center field, but his fringe-average arm and poor route-running have some scouts projecting him to left field.”

Greene is committed to the University of Missouri, and as a high schooler, has the ability to pass up on the opportunity to go pro and maintain his college commitment. It will be interesting to see if the Mets can sign him close to the slot value of the pick which is $929,800.

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Francisco Alvarez/Photo by Ed Delany, MMO

3. Francisco Alvarez, C

B/T: R/R Age: 18 (11/19/91)
Height: 5’11” Weight: 220 lbs
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent in 2018 (Guatire, Venezuela)
ETA: 2023 Previous Rank: 14
2019 Stats (GCL/Kingsport): .312/.407/.510, 10 2B, 7 HR, 26 RBI, 20.3% K, 11.5 BB%, 155 wRC+

Francisco Alvarez was widely regarded as one of the top 15 international prospects in 2018 IFA Class [Baseball America (9th), Fangraphs(10th), MLB.com (15th)] and the Mets paid him as such with a team record $2.7 Million signing bonus besting the previous record held by Ronny Mauricio from the previous year’s class. As with any high priced international signing though, with bust rates being so high in the IFA market, you don’t really know what you’re getting until the player finally hits the field. Luckily for the Mets, it seems they have struck a giant pot of gold here with Alvarez.

During his workouts in 2018 and extended spring training in 2019, Alvarez displayed a stunningly advanced feel for the game at his young age both offensively and defensively behind the plate. His strong bat-to-ball skills, tremendous opposite field power, and ability to hit to all parts of the field, paired with his unbelievable physical maturity at only 17 years old made skipping the Dominican Summer League and assigning him to the Gulf Coast League Mets an easy choice.

A day after homering on the anniversary of his signing (below), #Mets catching prospect Francisco Alvarez has his first three-hit game as a pro.

He’s hitting .462 with a 1.394 OPS in 7 games in the GCL. pic.twitter.com/eWWiwmPRrc

— Jacob Resnick (@Jacob_Resnick) July 3, 2019

Even so, no one could have anticipated how easily Alvarez would handle the GCL. In one week of play (seven games), Alvarez posted multi-hit games on five occasions reaching base safely in 16 of his 31 plate appearances (.548 OBP), including, six extra-base hits (.385 ISO), eight runs scored, and 10 RBIs.

The obliteration of GCL pitching prompted the club to quickly promote him to the more advanced rookie level in Kingsport. As with any promotion, it should be expected that there will be an performance adjustment period where the player struggles against the tougher competition. For Alvarez though, this adjustment only took a mere three days (0-for-10).

For the next month, from July 8th to August 5th, Alvarez would string together a 16-game hitting streak, hitting .417/.470/.650, with a 1.036 OPS, including eight multi-hit games, five extra-base hits, and 15 runs scored.

His offensive prowess wasn’t the only thing that impressed last season either. Defensively, Alvarez displayed impressive arm strength, handled the pitching staff incredibly well despite his age, and was widely praised for his work ethic and enthusiasm.

“That’s what shocked me when I found out he was 17…You don’t see kids that young who can catch that well usually. Tremendous arm strength, and (he) shut down our running game.” – anonymous Appalachian League manager per Baseball America. 

Despite multiple attempts via prospect trades and high draft picks, (Kevin Plawecki, Tomas Nido, Travis d’Arnaud, Josh Thole) its been a long time since the Mets have successfully developed a good starting-caliber catching prospect. Alvarez’s profile and performance gives the organization some hope that they can finally achieve this AND potentially develop themselves an All-Star caliber player.

Previous Rankings

4 Matthew Allan – RHP
5 Mark Vientos – 3B
6 Brett Baty – 3B
7 David Peterson – LHP
8 Shervyen Newton – INF
9 Thomas Szapucki – LHP
10 Josh Wolf – RHP, 
11 Kevin Smith – LHP
12 Franklyn Kilome – RHP
13 Jordan Humphreys – RHP
14 Junior Santos –RHP
15 Carlos Cortes – 2B
16 Freddy Valdez – OF
17 Adrian Hernandez – CF
18 Dedniel Nunez – RHP
19 Alexander Ramirez – OF
20 Ali Sanchez – C
25-21 Led by Jaylen Palmer, 
30-26 Led by Ryley Gilliam

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Photo: Ed Delany, MMO

20. Ali Sanchez, C

B/T: R/R Age: 23 (1/20/97)
Height: 6’0” Weight: 196 lbs
Acquired: Signed as an International Free Agent in 2013 (Carora, Venezuela)
ETA: 2020 Previous Rank: 24
2019 Stats (Binghamton/Syracuse): .261/.326/.322, 17 2B, 1 HR, 33 RBI, 17.5% K, 7.8 BB%, 88 wRC+

When Sanchez was signed as part of the 2013 International Free Agent class, the initial scouting report of him centered around his excellent defensive abilities. Seven years later, the profile remains relatively unchanged as he finds himself on the doorsteps of the MLB.

With pop times that are sub 2.00 seconds and a strong arm behind the plate, Sanchez continues to mow down would be base-stealers with regularity. In his 81 starts between Double-A and Triple-A, Sanchez threw out 31 out of 70 base-runners (44%), was fourth best in the Eastern League at throwing runners out (minimum 30 attempts), and was ten basis points higher than the league average (34%). Oddly enough, Sanchez also posted his worst “passed ball” season of his career with thirteen of them in 2019. To put this into perspective, Sanchez had only allowed seventeen passed balls in the previous three years combined. Of course, this could certainly just be an outlier as a result of score-keeping and the fact that knuckle-baller Mickey Jannis was a part of the Rumble Ponies pitching staff.

While the defensive profile hasn’t changed much, Sanchez’s approach at the plate did change significantly in 2019. With a new focus on “hunting for his pitches,” the former free swinger gave way for a more patient approach. While he struggled adjusting to his new plan of attack at first, after an adjustment period, he eventually made significant gains. In April and May, Sanchez posted a .326 OBP with a 24.6% K rate and a 8.7% BB rate. From June to September though, Sanchez posted the same .326 OBP but with a far more sustainable 13.1% K rate and 7.2% BB rate.

Sanchez carried over these improvements into his second stint in the Arizona Fall League where he posted a paltry .120/.241/.160 slash line in 2018. As part of a catching rotation trio with San Francisco Giants top prospect Joey Bart and his Rumble Ponies teammate Patrick Mazeika, Sanchez put together a much improved stat line of a .262/.347/.310, pretty similar to his regular season production.

Even if Sanchez has peaked offensively as a .260 AVG/.650 OPS type hitter, his plus plus defensive abilities still makes him a pretty sure bet to contribute at the MLB level as a back-up catcher at a bare minimum, perhaps even as soon as this season if incumbent back-up Tomas Nido does not improve both offensively (.191 AVG/.547 OPS) or at controlling the MLB running game (8% CS rate).

Previous Rankings

25-21 Led by Jaylen Palmer

30-26 Led by Ryley Gilliam

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By Christopher Soto

Arizona Fall League (AFL)

Surprise Saguaros (17-11) 10, Scottsdale Scorpions (12-16) 2 Box Score

• C Ali Sanchez: 1-for-4, R, 2B, K | .262 AVG/.657 OPS
• 1B Patrick Mazeika: 2-for-3, 3B, 2 RBI(6), BB | .174 AVG/.447 OPS
• 3B Luis Carpio: 0-for-3, R, BB | .179 AVG/.531 OPS

Mazeika broke out of a 2-for-his-last-30 slump to provide all the offense in this game for the Scorpions. In the bottom of the fourth inning, after a Ali Sanchez double and a Luis Carpio walk, Mazeika lined one the other way into right field for a bases clearing triple to give the Scorpions their only two runs of the game.

Unfortunately, that would not be nearly enough as the bullpen gave up a total of ten runs in the fourth and fifth innings after starter Spencer Howard exited the game with a no-hitter intact. The loss is the Scorpions fifth in a row as they limped into the final game of the season today against the Mesa Solar Sox.

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Photo by Ed Delany, MMO

By Christopher Soto

Arizona Fall League (AFL)

Peoria Javelinas (13-13) 4, Scottsdale Scorpions (12-14) 3 Box Score

• 1B Ali Sanchez: 2-for-4, 2 RBI(5) | .229 AVG/.574 OPS
• C Patrick Mazeika: 0-for-3, BB, K | .140 AVG/.322 OPS
• RHP Ryley Gilliam: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 K, 0 BB | 0-0, 0.96 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
• LHP Blake Taylor: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 K, 0 BB | 0-1, 2.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP

I’m not sure what Ryley Gilliam has done to deserve it, but, once again he had to work around a fielding error behind him in order to complete his inning of work. Across his seven games (9.1 IP) pitched this season, there have been five errors committed behind Gilliam resulting in five unearned runs scoring. Only Salt River Rafter’s starting pitcher Ryan Castellani has a bigger discrepancy between his runs and earned runs allowed (10 R vs 4 ER). Despite this, Gilliam has continued to pitched well posting a strikeout rate of 10.6 K/9 IP with an equally solid 1.9 BB/9 rate.

Taylor meanwhile saw his streak of consecutive batters retired end after fifteen straight as he allowed two singles in the ninth inning. He was able to work around them though as he completed his fifth straight clean inning of work. He also has posted some impressive numbers this fall with a strikeout rate of 11.0 K/9 and a walk rate of 2.0 BB/9 across his seven games pitched.

With yesterday’s loss and a victory by the Salt River Rafters, the Scottsdale Scorpions have officially been eliminated from AFL championship contention.

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