Through three innings against Colorado, McLean faced the minimum. Six of his first nine outs came via the strikeout, including three with his four-seam fastball. All of his pitches were working. Then, the Rockies started to have better at-bats in the fourth inning. The first three batters reached base before Troy Johnston opened the scoring with an RBI single. The bases remained loaded, but McLean was able to end the scoring threat, thanks to an inning-ending double play off the bat of Brett Sullivan.

After a clean fifth, the Rockies went back to work against McLean in the sixth. It started with a double and a walk. Then, McLean got TJ Rumfield to ground into what may have been a double play. But instead, Mark Vientos made a poor throw towards second base, which resulted in an error. McLean would leave the game with the bases loaded, failing to record an out in the sixth. The Rockies regained the lead later in the inning, which was an unearned run charged against the Mets’ starter. It wasn’t his best day, but McLean finished with five-plus innings, allowing two runs (one earned) on five hits, while striking out seven.

Don’t be fooled by his win-loss record. 1-2 for McLean looks odd, but his 2.55 ERA shows that he is pitching well. Like many of his teammates in the rotation, he isn’t getting much run support. Over his first six starts, the team is averaging 3.11 runs per game when McLean pitches. The offense has scored a total of one run in three of those games. It’s hard to win baseball games when manufacturing runs feels like an impossible task.

“We look at the lineup going out there each day, and we know how hard they’re working. It’s just a matter of time,” McLean said after the Mets dropped game 1 of the doubleheader Sunday.

Something needs to change in that regard, or solid starts from their rotation will continue to go to waste.

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They will look to continue their winning run against the Colorado Rockies (10-16), who recently took a series over the Los Angeles Dodgers at home. While they have been good at Coors Field (7-6), they are just 3-10 on the road. The Mets will look to take advantage of that.

Let’s take a look at some pitching notes ahead of the three matchups this weekend.

Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Michael Lorenzen (1-2, 7.48 ERA) vs. Freddy Peralta (1-2, 4.05 ERA): Lorenzen joined the Rockies in the offseason after spending last season with the Kansas City Royals. Early on, the results have been a mixed bag. Nine of his 18 earned runs allowed came in one start against Philadelphia Phillies on April 3. Lorenzen is coming off a decent outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers last Sunday, allowing three runs over five innings. I think it’s safe to say Mets fans have yet to see the best from Peralta. His numbers have been better of late, pitching to a 3.32 ERA in the month of April. But as the ace of the staff, many were hoping for more than one quality start over his first five. Peralta will look to collect another one against the Rockies, a team he is 4-2 against in his career.
• Saturday: José Quintana (0-2, 6.23 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (0-3, 8.83 ERA): Quintana, a member of the Mets team that reached the NLCS in 2024, will make his second return to Citi Field. His last start in Queens came as a Milwaukee Brewer, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings in July last season. The Rockies are 0-3 in Quintana starts and are averaging 2.33 runs per game with him on the mound. Senga’s role in the Mets’ rotation is in danger of drastically changing. His last two starts have been as bad as advertised; he has a 20.65 ERA over 5 2/3 innings during that stretch. His ghost fork has remained effective despite using it less often. The same cannot be said about his cutter. Opponents are hitting .471 with a .824 slugging percentage against it, including two home runs.
• Sunday: TBD vs. Nolan McLean (1-1, 2.28 ERA): The Rockies have yet to announce a starter for Sunday’s game. However, Chase Dollander is in line to pitch on normal rest. Colorado has exclusively used him as a bulk reliever early on this season. Dollander is coming off his best outing, allowing one run over six innings with nine strikeouts against the San Diego Padres last Tuesday. McLean has continued to pitch at the level he showcased at the end of last season. He enters this weekend with three-straight quality starts, pitching to a 2.70 ERA over that stretch. Can’t ask for much more than that from your young ace. McLean is off to an unbelievable start to his career, pitching to a 1.70 ERA over his first seven home starts.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

The Mets were forced to play without Juan Soto for a couple weeks. He’s back, but they will now be without Francisco Lindor for what could be an extended period of time. That’s not ideal for a lineup averaging 3.52 runs per game, tied for the second-worst mark in baseball. Can they survive without Lindor? Who will step up in his absence? Bichette is a name to watch, as he is coming off his first multi-hit game since April 11. They will need more from Francisco Álvarez, who will continue to hit in the middle of the order for the time being. Everyone needs to step up without the All-Star shortstop available, especially as they attempt to climb out of the bottom of the National League.

PREDICTION

The Mets have been far from convincing, even in the two wins against the Twins this week. That being said, Peralta and McLean are set to pitch in this series and the Rockies have struggled on the road. I think the Mets continue to marginally improve, winning two of three against Colorado.

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Tobias Myers started the game with two scoreless innings, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out two. Then, the Mets went to Peterson to start the third inning. He got into immediate trouble when Pete Crow-Armstrong hit a leadoff triple to start the frame. But two batters later, Peterson got Nico Hoerner to line out into a double play to keep the Cubs off the board.

Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

After that, he was able to settle in. The Cubs got two more hits against Peterson but failed to do anything with them. His final line was 3 2/3 innings, three hits, one walk, and, most importantly, no runs. “I don’t think it matters what my reaction is. It matters what the best decision for the team is. We’re trying to do everything we can to win games,” Peterson said before Sunday’s game.

In Peterson’s previous starts, most of his damage came in the first three innings. He hasn’t allowed a run to score in the fourth or sixth innings of work in 2026, allowing only one run in the fifth inning.

The Mets have used an opener in the past, not too often, but it has happened before. Myers and Huascar Brazobán are both capable of working in that role. With Peterson and Kodai Senga struggling at the moment, could the Mets use them in long relief for the time being? At this point, all options should be on the table. Sean Manaea has had some good outings in that role this season. Maybe the same can occur for them.

Before Sunday, Peterson’s last relief appearance in the regular season was all the way back in 2022. He did have four relief appearances in the 2024 postseason, a run in which he pitched to a 2.92 ERA over 12 1/3 innings. With how he performed in Chicago, pitching after an opener may be the best thing for Peterson in the short term while the Mets look to get back on track.

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They will try to snap out of this bad run against the Chicago Cubs (9-9), who haven’t had a great start to the season either. They are currently last in the competitive National League Central and are only 4-5 at Wrigley Field.

Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Friday: Kodai Senga (0-2, 7.07 ERA) vs. Edward Cabrera (1-0, 1.62 ERA): After two impressive performances to begin his season, Senga got roughed up against the Athletics last Saturday. He went 2 1/3 innings with seven runs allowed on eight hits, including two home runs. It was bad from start to finish. The Mets desperately need him to bounce back. Senga is 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two career starts against the Cubs. Cabrera is a name the Mets are very familiar with, as he spent the last five years with the Miami Marlins. In 16 2/3 innings this season, he has only allowed three runs, all of which came in his last start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cabrera has faced the Mets 10 times in career, pitching to a 5.09 ERA across 40 2/3 innings.
• Saturday: Freddy Peralta (1-1, 3.86 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (0-1. 4.86 ERA): Peralta has been good, but not great, to begin his Mets tenure. He completed six innings for the first time last Sunday against the A’s. Being efficient and getting quicker outs is certainly an area that would give him a huge lift. As a former Milwaukee Brewer, Peralta has faced the Cubs a lot. Last season, he went 3-1 against them with a 3.43 ERA in four starts. Taillon is now in his fourth season with the Cubs, providing a veteran presence in the backend of their rotation. He is coming off a strange start against the Pirates, an outing in which he struck out 10 but allowed six runs in six innings. The home run ball has hurt him early on, giving up five in 16 2/3 innings.
• Sunday: David Peterson (0-3, 6.41 ERA) vs. Javier Assad (1-1, 8.10 ERA): Like Senga, Peterson is in desperate need of a bounce-back performance. After throwing 5 1/3 shutout innings against the Pirates on March 28, everything has gone south for him. Over his last three starts, Peterson is 0-3 with a 8.79 ERA. During that stretch, he has struggled to locate pitches. That has allowed teams to either draw walks or do damage against mistake pitches in the middle of the zone. That’s a bad combination. With Cade Horton out for the season and Justin Steele on his way back from a long-term injury, Assad has started the season in the Cubs’ rotation. He is coming off a brutal outing, surrendering nine runs on 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Philadelphia Phillies on Monday.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

Can the story be anything but the lineup’s early-season struggles? This past offseason, it was clear a focus was being put on doing more with runners in scoring position. The Mets specifically targeted hitters who have had good career numbers in those situations. But through three-plus weeks, the entire lineup has disappointed in those spots. With runners in scoring position, the Mets are slashing .224/.319/.309 over 183 plate appearances. For a team that doesn’t have many pure home run hitters, that won’t be enough. If the Mets want to turn things around, that area needs to be a clear strength, not a glaring weakness.

PREDICTION

The Mets have lost eight straight, and the Cubs just took two of three from the Phillies on the road. One team has no momentum, and the other is gaining confidence and is playing at home. Until proven otherwise, the Mets are going to have their hands full this weekend. I think they win a game, but nothing more.

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He was sharp, throwing three perfect innings with four strikeouts in relief of Freddy Peralta. His four-seam fastball and sweeper generated two strikeouts apiece. The velocity on his fastball remains a topic of conversation, as it peaked at 90.5 mph on Sunday. It appears that isn’t going to change much for the foreseeable future. But if he continues to adjust and find ways to remain effective on the mound, that’s a good thing for the Mets.

Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Manaea has made four appearances this season, all as a reliever. In his four games, the 34-year-old pitched 12 innings, striking out 10, while walking six and allowing three earned runs. His season ERA sits at 2.25. While it’s still early in the season, he currently ranks in the 90th percentile in breaking run value at +2. His sweeper has been excellent, with hitters mustering just a .113 BA against the pitch and an xBA of .213. It’s been the pitch he’s relied on the most in 2026, followed by his four-seamer (.188 BA vs. .274 xBA).

Is there a possibility he could find himself in the starting rotation again? Before the season began, Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said he would remain in the bullpen for at least two rotation turns. The team is certainly beyond that point now.

It’s an interesting discussion point. At this stage of the season, it’s difficult to envision drastic changes being made. But in a few weeks, who knows? David Peterson has also seen a dip in velocity to start the season, pitching to a 9.64 ERA over his last 9 1/3 innings. Could a case be made that he could be better utilized in the bullpen at some point? After all, he has pitched in that role before.

For now, expect Manaea to remain in a piggyback role. Peterson has struggled, and Kodai Senga is coming off a rough start of his own. That won’t change much in the short term. But if Manaea continues to excel, maybe a change in roles could be on the cards in a few weeks.

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Mandatory Credit: D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

He got off to a quick start, striking out five of the first seven batters he faced. Through four innings, the Giants had just one hit against Senga. They failed to get anyone into scoring position at that point, something that continued into the fifth inning thanks to some great defense. Jerar Encarnacion hit a long fly off the wall in left field, as he looked to stretch it into a double. Jared Young had it angled perfectly and made a good throw, making it a close play at second. Encarnacion was out, and Senga escaped trouble in the fifth.

The Giants found some holes against him in the sixth. Patrick Bailey and Rafael Devers each hit singles that weren’t hit particularly hard (62.2 mph and 75.6 mph), but they were still hits. Senga gave up two runs and was unable to finish the inning, exiting with a 2-1 deficit.

As the game wore on, the velocity on his four-seam fastball dropped. Early on, it peaked at around 98 mph. In the fifth inning, it was closer to 94-95 mph. Is that uncommon? No, probably not. But in his final inning against the Cardinals earlier in the week, he was sitting around 97-98 mph towards the end, which is where he was sitting around the end of spring training. For context, Senga averaged around 94.7 mph on his four-seamer in 2025 after averaging around 95.8 mph in 2024 and 95.7 in 2023.

Nonetheless, Senga has impressed so far. After Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean, fans weren’t really sure what to expect from that rotation. But to their credit, Clay Holmes and Senga have provided really strong outings through the first week and a half. “I think it’s a really strong group. As long as we stay healthy and stay out on the mound, we can be a stabilizing force for the team. That goes for everybody, and myself. I don’t want to be the one lagging behind; I want to be up there with them. I think we’re a great group,” Senga said.

As a team, the Mets’ 2.53 ERA ranks third in all of baseball. Like last year, the pitching has performed very well to begin the year. They will hope to continue that against the Arizona Diamondbacks starting Tuesday.

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PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Thursday: David Peterson (0-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (0-1, 3.38 ERA): Peterson began his season with a solid outing against the Pirates, allowing no runs over 5 1/3 innings. He didn’t surrender a single extra-base hit. One potential red flag is velocity was down on a few of his pitches. He averaged 92.3 MPH on his four-seam fastball last season, down to 90.1 MPH against Pittsburgh. Similar trend with Peterson’s sinker. Ray also threw 5 1/3 innings in his season debut, taking the loss against the New York Yankees. He performed well, giving up two earned runs on five hits. Unfortunately, he got no runs of support from his offense. Ray has done well against the Mets in the past, going 4-2 with a 3.11 ERA in nine career starts.
• Friday: Nolan McLean (0-0, 3.60 ERA) vs. Tyler Mahle (0-1, 4.50 ERA): After a bumpy start, McLean began to find more of his best stuff in his first start. He only managed to go five innings against Pittsburgh, allowing two earned runs on four hits. McLean struck out eight hitters, five of which came on his curveball. McLean will make his first career start against the Giants this weekend. Mahle has bounced around, pitching for four teams in the last five years. Last year went very well for him, pitching to a 2.18 ERA in 86 2/3 innings with the Texas Rangers. Mahle opened his season with four innings against the Yankees, giving up two earned runs on five hits. He has not faced the Mets since 2019, when he was a member of the Cincinnati Reds.
• Saturday: Clay Holmes (1-0, 3.18 ERA) vs. Landen Roupp (1-0, 0.00 ERA): Holmes looked sharp earlier on Monday against the Cardinals, giving up two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. 8 of the 17 outs he got came on ground balls. Holmes is definitely in a good place when that’s the percentage. He has not thrown well at Oracle Park in the past, pitching to a 5.40 ERA in 13 1/3 innings. Roupp has been the most impressive arm for the Giants to this point. In his first start against the Padres, he threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts. Roupp had a solid 2025 season, pitching to a 3.80 ERA in 22 starts. Now in his age-27 season, let’s see if he can really break out in the middle of the Giants rotation.
• Sunday: Kodai Senga (0-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (1-1, 7.36 ERA): Senga came out of spring training with expectations rising. He lived up to those in his first start against the Cardinals, giving the Mets six strong innings. Only two earned runs allowed on four hits, nine strikeouts, and most importantly, 92 pitches. Senga didn’t reach six innings in any of his final 10 starts last season. If he can do that on a more regular basis, with the increased velocity, he’s a game-changer. Webb had a brutal start to the season. On Opening Night against the Yankees, he gave up seven runs (six earned) in five innings. To his credit, he bounced back against the Padres this week, allowing three runs over six innings in a win. Webb is 3-2 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against the Mets.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

Let’s get to these offensive struggles. The Mets are slashing .162/.314/.265 with runners in scoring position through six games. In terms of batting average in those situations, only the Reds rank worse. It seems that a majority of the lineup is pressing when runners are in scoring position, swinging at pitches outside the zone, taking good pitches to hit, etc. Do I think that will continue for much longer? No, many of these guys have shown over the course of their careers that they thrive in high-leverage spots. That being said, the Mets need to improve in that area sooner rather than later.

PREDICTION

Neither of these teams has gotten off to an ideal start. That makes for an intriguing four-game series. Last season, the Mets swept a three-game series in San Francisco towards the end of July. I don’t anticipate that happening again, but I like the Mets’ chances to bounce back. I have the Mets taking three of four.

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The Mets’ rookie starter opened the game with back-to-back walks to Oneil Cruz and Brandon Lowe. Cruz would eventually come around to score on a single to shallow left field from Ryan O’Hearn. After the Mets tied it at 1-1 in the bottom of the second, Lowe continued his dominant series in the top of the third. McLean threw an elevated four-seam fastball, and the second baseman got just enough of it, sneaking it over the wall in right-center field for his third home run of the season. Just like that, the Pirates led 2-1.

Nolan McLean, Ridiculous 82mph Curveball. 😳

3390 RPMs and 21 Inches of Horizontal Break (-14 IVB) pic.twitter.com/6I0qG8JcgX

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 29, 2026

McLean was able to find more of his best stuff from that point on, keeping the Pirates off the board for the rest of his outing. Pittsburgh had two more chances with runners in scoring position against him. They capitalized on neither of them. McLean finished his day with three strikeouts in the fifth, all with the curveball.

“Started using a little bit more cutters and changeups, obviously didn’t have much feel early in the game of the sinkers, but it started to come back to me later in the game,” McLean said about what was working for him later in his start. It wasn’t his best day, but despite that, he still gave the Mets a chance to win. On a day where your starter doesn’t have his best stuff, that’s all you can ask for.

Over 84 pitches, McLean utilized a pretty balanced attack. He used his sinker, four-seam fastball, sweeper, curveball and changeup at least 12 times each against the Pirates. In total, he generated 12 whiffs. Again, even on an off-day for him, McLean showed some promising signs. He will look to build off that in his next start on the road against the San Francisco Giants.

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PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Thursday: Paul Skenes (10-10, 1.97 ERA in 2025) vs. Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA in 2025): Skenes enters the 2026 season as the betting favorite to win the Cy Young in the National League for the second consecutive season. He is coming off a few strong performances in the WBC with Team USA, allowing just one earned run in 8 1/3 innings. Skenes took the no-decision in his only start against the Mets last year in mid-May. Peralta will take the ball at Citi Field for the first time as a member of the Mets on Opening Day. Peralta is quite familiar with the Pirates as a former Milwaukee Brewer, pitching to a 3.36 ERA in 99 innings against Pittsburgh. Peralta is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA in four career starts at Citi Field.
• Saturday: Mitch Keller (6-15, 4.19 ERA in 2025) vs. David Peterson (9-6, 4.22 ERA in 2025): Keller’s name has been in trade rumors for a number of years. The Pirates had interest at last season’s trade deadline, but decided to keep him around. Keller has good career numbers against the Mets, pitching to a 2.06 ERA over 39 1/3 innings. Peterson has a point to prove in 2026 after the way things unfolded for him down the stretch last season. He was the ace of the rotation in the first half, but the consistency quickly dwindled after the All-Star break. The Pirates gave Peterson fits in 2025, as he allowed seven earned runs over 10 2/3 innings.
• Sunday: Carmen Mlodzinski (5-8, 3.55 ERA in 2025) vs. Nolan McLean (5-1, 2.06 ERA in 2025): Mlodzinski is not a name many expected to see pitching in the first series of the year for the Pirates. With Jared Jones on the IL to begin the season, an opportunity has been presented to him. Length will be a key talking point with Mlodzinski. He completed at least five innings in just three of his 12 big league starts last season. McLean burst onto the scene in the second half of last season, making eight starts down the stretch for the Mets. He couldn’t have been much better, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of those eight starts. McLean went 2-0 with an astonishing 0.37 ERA in four starts at Citi Field in 2025.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

The storylines are endless as the Mets begin their 2026 season. Players making their team debuts, players making their MLB debuts. The list goes on and on. My focus is on the team as a whole, but more specifically, how they execute late in games when trailing. Last season, they didn’t win a single game when entering the ninth inning with a deficit. That was one of the many reasons why they missed the playoffs, despite having the second-highest payroll in baseball.

Changes were necessary, and changes were made. Will their roster revamp in terms of personnel result in more wins and a playoff berth? Time will tell. But with the additions of Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, the Mets are clearly putting an emphasis on putting the ball in play, especially in high-leverage situations. Let’s see if those new additions make a significant impact in that department.

PREDICTION

The Pirates are a better team than many will give them credit for. With an improved lineup, they have the talent to be in the mix for a playoff spot in 2026. That being said, the Mets are the better team opening the season at home. Citi Field will play a role in setting the tone for this season. I expect a game or two to be close late, but the Mets will take two of three.

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All Odds Presented By FanDuel

WORLD SERIES

New York Mets (+1300): Just as they did last year, the Mets enter the 2026 season with the fourth-shortest odds to win the World Series. They only sit behind the Los Angeles Dodgers (+210), the New York Yankees (+1000) and the Seattle Mariners (+1200). Good value is certainly there. Of course, knocking the Dodgers out in a five or seven-game series come October will be a difficult task. But if anyone in the National League is equipped to do so, why can’t it be the Mets? With Freddy Peralta and Nolan McLean at the top of their rotation, they have arms to compete with the Dodgers. If one of Kodai Senga or David Peterson can bounce back, a deep postseason run is a very strong possibility.

NATIONAL LEAGUE MVP

Juan Soto (+700), Francisco Lindor (+2200), Bo Bichette (+8000), Luis Robert Jr. (+15000) and Marcus Semien (+20000): The possibility of Juan Soto winning the MVP is very real. He got off to a slow start in 2025. Despite that, he still finished third in MVP voting. With a better April and May, maybe things would have unfolded differently. Soto has also openly talked about his desire to win the MVP this offseason. That only increases my level of confidence in him to actually make it happen. If Shohei Ohtani takes a step back and Soto has a strong second season with the Mets, he will be the guy to end the MVP drought in Queens.

Francisco Lindor at +2200 provides fantastic value, especially when you consider how close he got to winning the award in 2024. My only hesitation revolves around the latest injury he is recovering from. Last month, Lindor underwent surgery to repair a stress reaction in his left hamate bone. That is an injury that has affected other players’ power in the past, at least in the short-term. Not every case is the same, so that could look different for him. If Lindor is close to 100% for Opening Day, he could factor in for the award as well.

NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG

Freddy Peralta (+2200), Nolan McLean (+5000), Kodai Senga (+10000) and Clay Holmes (+15000):

Freddy Peralta is coming off a career year, one that resulted in him finishing fifth in Cy Young voting. 17-6 with a 2.70 ERA may have been enough to compete for this award in the past, but not in today’s game, certainly with some of the arms the National League has to offer. Peralta is tied for the seventh shortest odds, most notably behind Paul Skenes (+240), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+500) and Cristopher Sánchez (+650). If Peralta is going to truly be in contention for this award, he is going to have to outdo what he did a season ago in Milwaukee.

If you’re looking for a sleeper pick in this market, Nolan McLean jumps off the page. Don’t be fooled by the discourse following his two outings in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. McLean is one of the most talented young starters out there. He was fantastic down the stretch last season, pitching to a 2.06 ERA over his first eight big league starts. The Mets depended on him, and he delivered. McLean doesn’t have the experience the arms ahead of him have on this list. But if he continues on this trajectory, who’s to say he can’t be in the mix for the Cy Young as a rookie? I love a sprinkle on this.

NATIONAL LEAGUE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Nolan McLean (+280), Carson Benge (+2200) and Jonah Tong (+6000): 

This is where things get very interesting for the Mets. For all the reasons I listed above, McLean is the betting favorite to win Rookie of the Year. A few names are not far behind him in terms of what the odds say, including Konnor Griffin (+400), JJ Wetherholt (+550) and Sal Stewart (+700). If you are looking for value, McLean at +280 isn’t great. That being said, it’s worth looking at if you want to put that in an award winners parlay.

Carson Benge is in a completely different bracket value-wise. With him making the Opening Day roster, the path towards everyday playing time will be there right from the start. Benge played his way onto the roster, slashing .366/.435/.439 with 15 hits and five runs batted in across 46 plate appearances in spring training. If he can contribute at a high level, likely towards the bottom of the Mets order, he could very well be in the running for this award. At +2200, this is another nice value option.

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