Baseball Prospectus Unveils Mets Top 10 Prospects

noah syndergaard

While former chief analyst Jason Parks now scouts future Cubs prospects for Theo Epstein & Co., Baseball Prospectus with their new minor league staff recently kicked off their off-season prospect coverage and is deep into the NL East. Today it was time for the Mets system with in-depth reports on what BP views as the “Top 10” in the system. As an add-on,  3 more prospects considered as “on the rise” but further away are mentioned just like 3 more “factors on the farm” that will likely have some sort of major league impact in 2015 but are ranked outside the Top 10. While BP does note that the Mets are seemingly being managed as a “small market” team in the large Metropolitan market of New York, they see a lot of promise & depth in the system plus among young major leaguers which are documented by a “Top 10 ages 25 and under” list near the end of the article.

“It’s a strong collection of both minor-league talent and young major leaguers that gives the Mets strong depth. The Mets may not have the best collection of prospects and young players in baseball, but you can make an argument for them having the most balanced farm system in the game.”

The Top Ten

  1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
  2. Steven Matz, LHP
  3. Brandon Nimmo, OF
  4. Amed Rosario, SS
  5. Kevin Plawecki, C
  6. Dilson Herrera, 2B
  7. Marcos Molina, RHP
  8. Dominic Smith, 1B
  9. Michael Conforto, OF
  10. Jhoan Urena, 3B

In their extensive reports – only available to BP premium subscribers – on these 10, the BP staff notes strengths & weaknesses of the prospects, the current “upside” and a more conservative “realistic” outcome plus assesses the “risk factor” of reaching the ceilings while also grading out tools.   Syndergaard headlines the group as arguably the Top SP prospect in the upper minors heading into 2015 with raw stuff that matches that of Matt Harvey & Zack Wheeler and only some fine-tuning needed to reach his ceiling as a true frontline SP. Even in the more conservative “real case” scenario, he should become a quality # 2/3 SP in time which is quite a bullish outlook. As a positive,  the following 9 prospects all project as  1st division regulars in terms of “upside” – with only Kevin Plawecki receiving a “high 5 solid average regular” upside but with a low risk profile. That already sets the Mets´ system apart from other systems that have been written on thus far.

It´s also apparent that BP is very much on board with the “upside” of lower level minor leaguers Amed Rosario, Marcos Molina, Dominic Smith, Michael Conforto and Jhoan Urena who are quite a bit away but do have several tools & factors working for them.

As for prospects on “the rise”, BP notes:

RHP Casey Meisner

OF Champ Stuart

RHP Gabriel Ynoa

These three are all candidates for the Top 10 list next year and received positive reports from the various BP staff members / scouts – Meisner mainly as a body projecting and growing in a positive direction, Stuart for his present-day tools and Ynoa for his pitchability profile.

As factors on the farm, BP expects 2015 contributions from:

RHP Rafael Montero

LHP Jack Leathersich

OF Cesar Puello

Montero just missed the top 10 but lacks true above average offerings to project as more than a back-end type SP for BP though he should be ready for that role right away. Leathersich could help in a setup role shortly while Puello´s loud tools are hampered by his poor approach and lingering Biogenesis doubts.

All in all, BP completes their outlook with their

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/89 or later)

  1. Zack Wheeler
  2. Noah Syndergaard
  3. Jenrry Mejia
  4. Steven Matz
  5. Jeurys Familia
  6. Brandon Nimmo
  7. Wilmer Flores
  8. Amed Rosario
  9. Kevin Plawecki
  10. Dilson Herrera

Note that Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Juan Lagares and Travis d’Arnaud all weren´t eligible and BP in general went with the major leaguer over the prospect when players were viewed on an equal level.

Overall, it appears the Mets may have one of the deepest if not the deepest collection of young talent in the majors and minors overall right now. Beyond the young pitchers, there may be no future stars in there. But even a lineup loaded of first division, average to above average regulars would be quite a feat after essentially being barren in that spot for over a decade beyond stars Wright and Reyes.  Now, if only ownership could provide the funds to help not only take this to a top level but also sustain it…


About André Dobiey 28 Articles
I'm a lawyer who hails from and lives in Germany, and have been an avid Mets fan since 1984. I enjoyed rooting for Doc Gooden & David Cone back then. Spent a long time in German Baseball as a board member for the Bonn Capitals (German 1st League team) from 1994 through 2006 and can claim that I've watched former Mets farm hand C Kai Gronauer and pretty much every other German born prospect (like Max Kepler or Donald Lutz) in live action far before they became prospects. I follow and watch the Mets and other MLB games via internet TV. Also a big soccer fan (like most Germans).