Exactly a month ago I rolled out my first pass at preseason projections for our Mets minor league rotations. We now have some more clarity and I found myself having to make several updates to my original projections.
Stocks have risen for pitchers like Rafael Montero and Jake deGrom, while others have seen their values slip a little bit. However, most pitchers stayed exactly where I originally placed them.
I didn’t bother extending this to include the GCL or Kingsport because at that stage of the game it’s a complete crapshoot. I went with six-man rotations and in some cases went seven deep so as not to leave any stones unturned.
Here you go…
Las Vegas 51’s (Triple-A)
Dylan Owen and Chris Schwinden are the odd men out here. Jeremy Hefner, Collin McHugh and Jenrry Mejia will be stretched out and ready for whenever the Mets call. Zack Wheeler won’t be rushed and Shaun Marcum will keep his eventual spot in Mets rotation warm until the Wheeler blows them away in the PCL. Jeurys Familia is looking more and more like a reliever now and even Darin Gorski is beginning to trend in that direction lately.
Binghamton Mets (Double-A)
The Mets have a real numbers problem at starting pitching in the mid to low minors. Too many worthy arms and too few spots to fit them all. I was shocked we didn’t use some of these arms to acquire an outfielder that the team desperately needed. What good is a surplus if you don’t use it to your advantage? I didn’t see a way to fit Greg Peavey in AAA or AA, he could be heading to the pen. Mazzoni will easily front this rotation, but Montero and Pill will each make the jump from St. Lucie and both are worth keeping a close eye on, especially Montero. Goeddel could also start off in Bingo simply because of the numbers crunch in St. Lucie. Huchingson and Germen both need good showings after mediocre results in Lucie where they each made over 20 starts. If they don’t show improvement, both could end up in the bullpen once the real gems in St. Lucie start making their way to Bingo.
St. Lucie Mets (High-A)
Get your tongues back in your mouth. This rotation is absolutely scintillating and the Mets have a lot riding on all of these precious arms. It’s an important year for all of them. I have Mateo skipping right past Savannah and going from Low-A to High-A. Fulmer should have been promoted to Lucie last season along with Montero, but will now get his shot against some more advanced hitters. How he responds to that challenge will tell us if he truly is the real deal. Syndergaard will make his Mets pro debut with Lucie and along with Verrett both could advance quickly to Bingo if Huchingson or Germen don’t cut it. Call it a hunch, but I predict that deGrom will be the first of this group to make it all the way to Triple-A before the season ends and even get a cup of coffee in September.
Savannah Sand Gnats (Single-A)
St. Lucie isn’t the only affiliate bursting at the seams with promising young arms. I’m really high on Robles and Ynoa, but don’t count out Panteliodis and Lara either as both are just one pitch away from becoming more complete starters. But even if that doesn’t work out, both will eventually become effective relievers and each have one plus-pitch.
Brooklyn Cyclones (Low-A SS)
- Steven Matz
- Robert Gsellman
- Miller Diaz
- John Gant
- Matthew Bowman
- Bret Mitchell (if healthy)
- Logan Taylor
This group was the most difficult to assess and has the most likelihood of being totally wrong, but if Matz is healthy I’m certain he’ll get the bump from Kingsport. Gsellman and Diaz are no-brainers to make the squad, but I’m afraid Matthew Koch, Perseo Reyes and Chris Flexen will get left behind. They’re both still young and really should have been in the GCL anyway in 2012 if only we had a GCL team. Matt Bowman didn’t get enough PT at Brooklyn last season and will most likely repeat. I like that one, good sleeper.