PECOTA and the Mets: No Home Runs For You!

Caught this on MetsBlog, it’s a chart of the Mets PECOTA projections for the 2012 season. Brace yourself because it’s not too pretty…

This was originally posted on Baseball Prospectus and my buddy, who is big on this stuff, tells me he anxiously awaits these PECOTA projections every year at this time. I tried to see if they had any other Mets players, but for some reason I kept getting an error on their spreadhseet link.

The first thing that jumps out at me more than anything else is the frightening number of strike-outs. I don’t know the science behind these projections and maybe one of our readers can tell us more about that, but if that projection holds true for Andres Torres, I don’t think he will be long for the leadoff spot. It’s a shame they didn’t capture Daniel Murphy, because ultimately he might be the best choice for leadoff man on this team right now.

I was also surprised to see that they don’t expect any hitters to have more than 20 home runs – even with the shortened dimensions at Cit Field. I found that a little odd because last season before he got hurt, Ike Davis was on pace for 33 home runs. ¬†Maybe PECOTA is like the Homer Nazi – No Home Run For You!

Like I said, I don’t know how they weigh these things and what formulas they use tio calculate this stuff. The only thing I know about Pecota is that a Bill Pecota played for the Mets one season and batted .227.

As for the pitching, they spell doom for Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese, but at least they have Johan Santana coming back to pitch decently.

Anyway, have at it…