Mets Merized Online » stats http://metsmerizedonline.com Mon, 20 Feb 2017 16:46:49 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.18 Know Your Stats: Weighted On Base Average (wOBA) http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/06/know-your-stats-weighted-on-base-average-woba.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/06/know-your-stats-weighted-on-base-average-woba.html/#comments Thu, 23 Jun 2016 20:00:28 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=124826

Yoenis Cespedes is the current team leader in wOBA with a .395 mark.

For the next few days, I will be bringing back my “Know Your Stats” series that I began a few years back to highlight some important sabermetric stats and concepts. Earlier today, we went through OPS and OPS+. Now we continue with wOBA…

Perhaps the best way of describing weighted-On Base Average (wOBA) is to describe the faults of some of the traditional hitting statistics first.

Batting average, for all its history, fails on numerous fronts. For one, it values all hits equally, from an infield single to a home run. It also doesn’t include walks, which, however unexciting, undeniably contribute to a team. On-Base Percentage does a little bit better, adding walks to batting average, but again values a walk and a home run as the same. Slugging percentage attempts to weigh certain hits as more valuable than others, but fails to include walks and doesn’t weigh hits properly. A triple, for example, is not worth three times as much to a team compared to a single. We know this because of linear weights, which show that a triple does not create a run expectancy three times greater than one created by a single. Before we get to wOBA, it’s important to understand one very important thing about linear weights, which will clear up the somewhat confusing formula. Take a look at this excerpt from Fangraphs’ library:

There is nothing arbitrary in the exact weighting we have of a home run relative to a triple, or a ground ball to a line drive. Years upon years of data allow us to convert back and forth, or up and down with ease. A common complaint with modern sabremetrics is the bewildering array of fractional coefficients that dot the scene, but if you look at a formula that’s based on linear weight, don’t see them as confusing numbers. Instead, look at them as relative values, derived through years of baseball being played.

Essentially, the coefficients in wOBA come from the decades of baseball history that show us how singles, doubles, triples, home runs, walks, and HBP affect a team’s run expectancy. When you look at the wOBA coefficients, they intuitively make sense before you even look at what the linear weights tell you. A walk is worth slightly less than a single because a single moves runners over two bases more often. Just as eras change, wOBA can slightly change from year to year, although nothing really changes that significantly. You can see the constants going back to 1871 here. Here is the current wOBA formula:

wOBA = (0.688×uBB + 0.719×HBP + 0.878×1B + 1.245×2B + 1.576×3B + 2.030×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

### More Thoughts

• wOBA is a context-independent statistic meaning a walk with the bases loaded and a walk with the bases empty are weighted the same, just like most traditional statistics we deal with.
• wOBA and its park-adjusted, indexed counterpart wRC+ are the gold standard for publicly-available offensive statistics.

### Further Reading

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Know Your Stats: OPS/OPS+ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/06/know-your-stats-opsops.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/06/know-your-stats-opsops.html/#comments Thu, 23 Jun 2016 17:00:04 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=124861

For the next few days, I will be bringing back my “Know Your Stats” series that I began a few years back to highlight some important sabermetric stats and concepts. We begin this afternoon with OPS and OPS+.

OPS, or On Base Plus Slugging was one of the first sabermetric stats to go mainstream. It is, as the name implies, On-Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage. It’s crude and simple, but it’s a good quick and dirty reference tool

OPS is expanded on even further when made into an index, OPS+. OPS+ does something very important: puts the OPS into context. The stat makes it possible to compare players from different eras, different teams, and different ballparks.

OPS+ is set on a percentage point scale. Essentially it is the percentage of league OPS. 100 (or 100% of the league average) is the league average, while a 110 mark is ten percent better than league average, and 90 is ten percent worse.

There are many issues with the crude OPS and OPS+. Is one point of OBP worth the same as one point of SLG? The math says no. In fact, the math says a point of OBP is worth 1.7 times what a point of Slugging is. Neither OPS nor OPS+ tell you the composition of OBP or Slugging and thus overvalues extra base hits.

OPS as I mentioned, is crude and the most basic sabermetric stat out there. It has its flaws, but it is a great way to get people to start thinking about sabermetrics. OPS and OPS+ are solid stats and certainly better than batting average, although not as good as wOBA or wRC+.

### More thoughts

• Anytime there is a stat with a “+” at the end, that means it is an index and adjusted for park factors. I get a lot of questions and concerns about the fact that these park factors sometimes change from year to year. However, these changes are so miniscule from year to year that they don’t really effect the stat. Here are Yankee Stadium’s park factors going back to 2009:

### Formula

OPS= ((H +BB+HBP)/PA) + (TB/AB)

OPS+=100 x (OBP/lgOBP*+SLG/lgSLG*- 1) then park adjusted

### Further Reading

Up Next: wOBA

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Terry Collins Knows Good (Expletive) Players When He Sees One http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/02/terry-collins-knows-good-expletive-players-when-he-sees-one.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/02/terry-collins-knows-good-expletive-players-when-he-sees-one.html/#comments Thu, 18 Feb 2016 12:10:08 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=206410

In an interview with Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Terry Collins said he’d like to continue managing until it stops being fun or someone tells him to hang ‘em up.

Collins, 67, views himself as part of the old guard of baseball which he calls a dying breed and then he took a shot at some of the new technology and advances in the game and in particular with all the modern statistics most major league clubs now use to analyze players.

“I’m not sure how much an old-school guy can add to the game today,’’ Collins said. “It’s become a young man’s game, especially with all of the technology stuff you’ve got to be involved in. I’m not very good at it. I don’t enjoy it like other people do.”

“I’m not going to sit there today and look at all of these (expletive) numbers and try to predict this guy is going to be a great player. OPS this. OPS that. GPS. LCSs. DSDs. You know who has good numbers? Good (expletive) players.

He goes onto explaining that he doesn’t need new stats to know that adding Yoenis Cespedes was a great move and that he improves the team significantly, and he took issue with how pitching wins have been disparaged. ”How can you discredit a 20-game winner?”

I’m sure Collins will get an earful from the saber crowd after they get wind of this.

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Matt Harvey Goes From Non-Story To Huge Story http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/09/matt-harvey-goes-from-non-story-to-huge-story.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/09/matt-harvey-goes-from-non-story-to-huge-story.html/#comments Thu, 25 Sep 2014 04:18:41 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=166476

“We’re all interested in Matt’s progress, obviously. But we don’t intend it to be a story line in 2014. The thing that maybe I should try to make clear at the very outset of this camp is that the story for 2014 is not Matt Harvey.” – Sandy Alderson, February 13, 2014

General managers say the darnedest things… Alderson’s attempt to quell the Matt Harvey story quickly disappeared five days later when a Mets VP was spotted chasing down Andy Martino in Port St. Lucie as he was attempting to interview the Mets righthander. Just another amazing backfire in a long season full of them.

That was then and this is now…

I counted three common denominators as I listened to David Wright, Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson all speak on Tuesday.

1. All three believe this team is very close and will contend for a playoff spot next season.

2. All three intimated that spending isn’t everything and high payrolls are so overrated.

3. We’re getting back Matt Harvey, a difference maker.

Given what was said about not increasing payroll and instead relying more on flexibility (Ex: If we get rid of Player X and Player Y we might be able to afford to add Player Z), there’s a very good chance that the return of Matt Harvey will be the biggest addition the Mets will have in 2015.

I was reading an article by Hardball Times that collected exhaustive data and research on recovery from Tommy John Surgery, including the major study conducted by the American Journal of Sports Medicine.

Analyzing the performance of 147 pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery in the last 10 years, they concluded that pitchers perform worse in the season they return to the majors.

“The first season back from Tommy John is by far the worst for the pitcher, with all major stats headed in the wrong direction. By the second year, most stats have stabilized, except strikeouts. It’s not surprising to see strikeouts decline, since velocity is also declining.”

This is not intended to alarm you, but only to point out the risk in relying on Matt Harvey as a difference maker in 2015.

The good news is that Harvey is young and that by the third year removed from TJS, pitchers in his age group actually had increased performance levels across the board.

Stephen Strasburg is one case where his return was phenomenal. At 21-years old, the had reconstructive surgery after blowing out his pitching elbow near the end of his rookie season in 2010. Now, three years later and despite decreased velocity, he has emerged as the ace of the Washington Nationals rotation. And more importantly, he’s had no setbacks while experiencing three years of gradual increased performance levels.

Getting back to the point of this post, is the return of Matt Harvey coupled with basically the same offense, enough for the Mets to secure a post season berth next season? Is Matt Harvey the difference maker that the Three Amigos seem to think he is? Or will it require more?

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In “Defense” Of Fan Generated Statistics http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/09/in-defense-of-fan-generated-statistics.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/09/in-defense-of-fan-generated-statistics.html/#comments Wed, 24 Sep 2014 12:00:40 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=166425 Scouts don’t have it easy. They have to sort through thousands of pages of stats and hundreds of prospect profiles every year trying to somehow find the next great talent, picking the ones that maybe have a chance along the road. A road that consists of b-list cities and cut-rate motels.

They look for shortcuts, perhaps rely on radar guns too much, recycle existing scouting reports without the opportunity to make their own revisions because, well, it isn’t always possible to be in Wichita and Fresno at the same time. Sometimes a player gets saddled with a label early in their career that may be less and less accurate as the player develops, and sometimes the label sticks … It’s a daunting task procuring the raw material of major league baseball’s talent pool, but by and large, one of the most difficult things a scout has to do is somehow rate and quantify a player’s defense.

It’s difficult not to look at defense through the lens of previous scouting reports. Even as a fan you hear that an infielder has trouble going to his backhand and you end up overly scrutinizing that very skill. Early write-ups often get picked up and spread around by countless media and the description becomes the player’s calling card whether it continues to fit or not, and the proliferation of cut-and-paste second rate outlets hasn’t helped.

Jacob deGrom for instance was picked in the 9th round, and only a year or so ago was ranked below the likes of both Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero. I think it fair to say that is no longer the case. Wilmer Flores is the latest to be pigeon-holed in this manner. The book on Flores was that he couldn’t play shortstop, but outside of the fact that he is unusually slow of foot for a player of his build, there was little else offered in support of this premise. His hands were never the problem, his instincts were adequate, his throwing arm was never really mentioned at all. Most accounts simply dismissed him as incapable of playing shortstop at the major league level and the tale grew in its telling.

Remember as kids when teachers would have us do the experiment where we’d sit in a circle and a message would be passed around and by the time it got to the last person the message would be totally altered and exaggerated? In much the same way it seems one or two initial, and perhaps hasty judgments, were mirrored with a few additional embellishments, until the notion that Flores could play shortstop became a virtual absurdity.

Then we actually got to see Flores play, and what we saw with our own eyes was an infielder without a lot of speed and with (at times) awkward footwork, but his range given his tall lanky frame wan’t that bad, and his arm was very strong and accurate.

His instincts aren’t just ok, they are a strength for a kid of his age and experience. His hands are soft and fluid and he’s got some confidence. Bottom line, he makes the plays and I for one have seen worse. Flores can indeed play major league shortstop.

Baseball America’s Prospect Handbook included this excerpt about Flores in 2012:

“As he fills out his lean frame he could develop 20-homer power, which would be special for a shortstop — but scouts give Flores no chance to stay up the middle. He’s a well below-average runner with heavy feet and substandard range.”

Carson Cistulli added this in a report for Fangraphs, reacting to Baseball America’s analysis: “Not a glowing report, that. And yet, one finds that, in nearly 50 starts at shortstop this year, that Flores has produced commendably average — or at least not disastrously below-average — defensive figures, according both to UZR (+3) and DRS (-2).“

The unfortunate consequence of this propagation of sometimes dated and sometimes less than accurate scouting reports, is that the fans start to take these assessments with a grain of salt. Misinformation weakens the medium until we determine to see for ourselves.

Some sites have recently pioneered stats based on fan perception, particularly in support of defensive metrics which can be flawed and subjective. The idea behind it is that the eyeball test for many is still the best evaluation of a player’s defense. These metrics have proven to be remarkably true indicators, provided enough fan input is garnered. Interestingly enough, Flores’ FSR (Fan Scouting Report) is a -1 overall, which is only slightly below average. I think even Flores’ biggest skeptics have to admit that he is passable as a defender.

Does the eyeball test pass muster? Tom Tango put together a nifty little survey any of us can take, asking only that we be honest and that we evaluate players we are truly familiar with. You can add your input here.

It’s an interesting experiment. Defensive metrics have always been problematic, overly subjective, and difficult to quantify because better defenders naturally take more chances. It stands to reason that fan perception, in this instance, may be at least part of the answer to scouting a player’s defense.

Consider three charts below that look at FSR (fan scouting report), DRS (defensive runs saved) and UZR (ultimate zone rating) … you can see that each line more or less mirrors the others and when you crunch the numbers sure enough UZR correlates positively to FSR at a modest .76 while DRS correlates with FSR at a strong .83.

This makes sense when you think about it as zone rating shouldn’t overlap as evenly with fan ratings (which are the product of a broad set of questions) as defensive runs saved.

All Data Combined

I wouldn’t be surprised to eventually see more fan input used in generating statistics that interpret what are ultimately subjective analyses. No matter how much math you throw at a guy tracking down a fly ball or an infielder going deep in the hole to make a play, there are elements of grace and instinct and intuition that are impossible to quantify.

Our very own Juan Lagares is a virtual personification of this almost magical ability to get to the ball. Interestingly enough Flores’ FSR, while below average, is not abysmal and does reflect an arm with good strength and accuracy. His FSR is also a bit lower than both his UZR and his DRS … His own fans were actually slightly harder on him than those two well established metrics, which in my mind only adds to the measure’s authenticity.

I know a lot of fans out there aren’t keen on sabermetrics and fancy diagrams and using stats to interpret everything from balls in play to downward tilt on a slider, but I think it’s nevertheless exciting to witness the evolution of what has become a spectacular array of analytic options … kind of makes you wish you’d paid more attention in algebra …

*Couple of brief footnotes: The FSR ratings were not complete for the current year so I used the “in progress” ratings which were on a 0 – 100 scale. Secondly I could not include catchers because of UZR … Finally one issue I have with FSR is how some teams garner a lot more input than others, such as the Red Sox with 93 entries and the Mets with 98 … one concern is this may skew the results making them more valid for the teams with more entries.

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Mets Struggles Continue at Citi Field http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/09/mets-struggles-continue-at-citi-field.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/09/mets-struggles-continue-at-citi-field.html/#comments Sat, 13 Sep 2014 19:42:02 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=165687

In last nights win against the Nationals some very interesting stats came up during the game.

The first being that in the last 18 games, Travis d’Arnaud has only struck out five times with two of those strikeouts coming last night. It is hard to undersell how impressive a turnaround it has been for the Mets young catcher. He is starting to show the big league promise the Mets saw in him, when they traded away R.A Dickey to Toronto for him.

Beside d’Arnaud’s turn around, a stat I found alarming is that with last nights win, the Mets now have five wins in the last three years against the Nationals at Citi field. If your rubbing your eyes thinking that stat is a joke, I assure you it isn’t. The Mets are now 5-31 against their N.L East rival. That’s a winning percentage of .161, these numbers are huge concerns. They are the small factors that have compounded into the Mets futility over the last few seasons. Over the six seasons the Mets have played at Citi Field, they hold a losing record at home, winning only .477 percent of their games. In comparison over the 45 years they played at Shea they had a winning percentage of 52%.

Even though Citi Field is still in its infancy, the signs are troubling for the Mets and their fans. Any Met fan can tell you that the environment is just not the same, the stadium doesn’t hold the electricity that Shea had. A lot of that is due to the poor play on the field, but Mets fans have weathered worse teams than this and Shea was always the safe haven for the team.

Citi Field is a nice stadium and holds the trappings of many modern stadiums. Shake Shack and other in-stadium attractions serve as continuing distractions from baseball. They are fun for families and children but for the true blue and orange bleeding fans, they take the emotion out of the stadium. With more and more fans standing in line for a burger than cheering on the team, the home field atmosphere gets eliminated. It is hard to stay and root for a team that isn’t producing, but its time to bring a loud, boisterous, overwhelming fans back to Citi Field and retake the stadium.

Give me your opinions about the stadium and the atmosphere by leaving a comment or tweet and follow at me @joe_pic.

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Featured Post: The Wilmer Flores Experiment http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/08/featured-post-the-wilmer-flores-experiment.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/08/featured-post-the-wilmer-flores-experiment.html/#comments Fri, 22 Aug 2014 16:59:15 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=163816

At just 23 years old, it’s hard to imagine giving up on a highly regarded prospect. Still, I believe the time has come for the Mets to move on from Wilmer Flores.

Signed at the ripe old age of 16, Flores has progressed slowly through the Mets farm system, racking up almost 3,000 minor league at bats. Over that time, he’s hit .292 with 77 home runs and 869 hits and slashed at a .292/.334/.440 clip. Unfortunately, it’s starting to feel like those numbers will never be matched in the major leagues. In his limited stint in the majors, Flores is hitting .221/.255/.294 through 73 games over the past two seasons.

I’m not ready to let Flores walk away solely based on numbers. While there are many who rely predominantly on stats, I believe that a balance must exist between the eye test and statistics. The eye test is what is really troubling. Flores looks overmatched in almost every single at bat and it doesn’t seem like he’s evolved in the time we’ve seen him.

There was a specific at-bat against Scott Kazmir on Tuesday in which Flores was swinging for the fences with two strikes. It was the top of the 4th and earlier in the inning, Travis d’Arnaud had a big home run. Seeing that, you could almost tell that Flores was trying to do the same thing. In the Mets booth, Kevin Burkhardt commented that it was a huge swing. What they failed to harp on was the situation. With two strikes, smart hitters don’t try to hit home runs. Flores was demonstrating a lack of baseball smarts.

Some will say that he’s only 23. But the Mets are close to contending. While they might not be there this year, Flores doesn’t seem like he fits into the future. He’s been in the organization for a long time and doesn’t seem to have a position. He came up as a shortstop before moving to third base and eventually second. He played every infield position at some point in his minor league career and didn’t dazzle at any of them. If he’s going to be an average (or below average) fielder, he simply must hit. He hasn’t and that’s the problem.

So what do you do with Flores? My solution is to include him in a trade in the offseason. It lets him get a fresh start with another organization and while he hasn’t been great, there’s still a chance that he can make something of his career. I just don’t believe the Mets are the team he’ll do it with and for that reason it’s time to move on.

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Gavin Cecchini Is Doing Better Than You Think http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/08/gavin-cecchini-is-doing-better-than-you-think.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/08/gavin-cecchini-is-doing-better-than-you-think.html/#comments Tue, 19 Aug 2014 20:01:30 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=163684

A year and a half ago, my first article after joining MMO was about shortstop Gavin Cecchini, saying that he wasn’t as bad as people say, I wasn’t wrong, but it didn’t exactly show until this season.

Cecchini wasn’t really a player that jumped off the page when he was selected, especially as a first round pick who was looking for an offensive threat, which quite frankly, Gavin did not seem to be. People inside the organization lauded his makeup and his willingness to work hard, but many were concerned with the lack of power. At the time, Cecchini was rated as a future 40 on the scouting scale, or in other words, 10-15 home runs annually.

After being drafted at 18 years old, he hit .240/.307/.330, with 12 extra base hits, appearing only as a designated hitter in 58 games between Kingsport and Brooklyn. The following season he hit .273/.319/.314, with 8 extra base hits (all doubles) as a 19-year-old shortstop in Brooklyn. Not exactly eye-popping.

After that performance, his stock dropped and experts moved him down their prospect lists due to the lack of one loud tool: power. He can field, he has range, his baserunning is rather raw, his arm is above average, his bat is projected to be in the .280 range as a major leaguer, but many were down on him because he seemed to be lacking power to drive in runs, including me (who dropped him to #14 on my top 25 at the end of last year, and only that because he was a first round pick).

I was very pleased by Cecchini’s performance this season as a 20-year old. To the naked eye, he still may not appear very impressive. He is having defensive lapses, and not hitting well average-wise. To this date, he is hitting .249/.330/.386 through both Class-A Savannah and Advanced-A St. Lucie. However, while his average isn’t doing his performance justice, he is hitting the ball harder and much better than most give him credit for.

In Savannah, he batted .259/.333/.408, with a big spike in percentage of extra base hits. He had 24 extra bases in 259 plate appearances or 3 times as many as he had in Brooklyn (a better hitter’s park) the previous season. And he did it at Grayson Stadium, the worst hitters park in the minor leagues.

When he was promoted to St. Lucie, Cecchini initially hit a wall, hitting .190/.256/.254 through his first 35 games. In the next 17 games however, he batted .340/.458/.566 with a 14/2 BB/K ratio. He has upped his Hi-A averages to .236/.327/.326 whit five home runs, including a two grand slams, one that went high over a green monster replica a few days ago.

I asked a Mets official about his progress and this is what he said:

“Gavin is continuing to develop. After an initial hiccup, he has made some nice adjustments at the plate in St. Lucie. The results have been there over the last few weeks. He has gotten a lot stronger from last year. Consequently the ball is jumping off his bat better than anticipated. He is still young, so you’ll still see some mistakes. That’s all part of the development process.”

Overall this season, he has totaled 24 doubles, 3 triples and 8 home runs for a total of 35 extra-base hits. Believe it or not, that would be top 10 for shortstops if he were posting the same numbers in the Major Leagues. In fact, he would be tied for 10th in extra base hits with shortstops like Yunel Escobar, Jed Lowrie, and Jose Reyes, and his OPS would rank 7th overall. His overall stats would get him ranked top 10 overall in almost every category except batting average, but even that is trending up.

His stats are more impressive than people have realized. After initially struggling at a new level, as many prospects do, he has adjusted and turned the corner. Look for an even better season in 2015, with a good chance of a breakout in batting average. I expect he’ll start showing the overall skills that will validate why he was selected in the first round by the New York Mets. He might be our future shortstop after all, and this is coming from a huge Amed Rosario fan.

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Daniel Murphy: Forget #TeamMurph, It’s Time For #SignMurph http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/08/daniel-murphy-forget-teammurph-its-time-for-signmurph.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/08/daniel-murphy-forget-teammurph-its-time-for-signmurph.html/#comments Wed, 06 Aug 2014 17:23:18 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=162699

It’s hard to believe that Daniel Murphy, the position-less utility man that broke through with the Mets in 2008 has become the toast of his position, especially in the National League. After a rough start in the outfield, Murphy was moved around the infield and finally settled in at second. Despite two horrible leg injuries sustained while playing second, he’s found a home and now leads the league in most offensive categories, among second basemen.

Murphy ranks first in runs, hits, doubles and batting average among all NL second basemen and many of those numbers stand up when you look at the entirety of major league baseball. In fact if you look at the statistics, his name appears next to guys named Robinson Cano, Ian Kinsler, Jose Altuve and Chase Utley in many categories. If you were playing “which name doesn’t belong” Murphy would be the obvious odd man out.

Still his numbers are undeniable and as he nears free agency, Sandy Alderson will have a big decision to make. Keep Murphy and sign him to a long term deal or trade him and make room for the flurry of young talent in the system.

Thinking about a contract for Murphy will be difficult. Unlike many of his counterparts at second, he has almost no power and is an average defender. He can hang with the Kinsler’s and Utley’s when it comes to many stats but home runs and defense are not among them.

Kinsler, Utley and Dustin Pedroia all make about the same amount (the three contracts will average out to \$14.5 million this year) so what is a fair number for Murphy? My guess is that Murphy will want similar years to the big guys at about \$4-\$6 million less. Murphy’s contract will look like \$48 million for 5 years (I’ll allow myself a 10% margin on this one).

So can the Mets do better at second base? The minor league system is littered with guys that could turn into excellent infielders, but it doesn’t seem like any promotions are imminent. Dilson Herrera is tearing up AA while Matt Reynolds has progressed quickly to AAA. Both could be solid major league options if Murphy is traded.

Now the question turns. If you trade Murphy it has to be a way of getting better at another position. There’s a very small chance that Herrera or Reynolds will lead the NL in hits or doubles in 2015 at second base, so trading Murphy has to be accounted for somewhere else on the roster. Trading him for a marginal upgrade just doesn’t work.

The only way a trade makes sense is as a part of a blockbuster including some of the other prospects in the system. If the Colorado Rockies are a Daniel Murphy away from sending the Mets one of their sluggers then Murphy has to go. My worry is that he gets moved in a smaller sized move and that his incredible stats get brushed under the rug because of his lack of defense and power.

Let me state this officially and on the record. I’m on #TeamMurph but beyond that, I’m on team #SignMurph. I don’t want him here just to be here. He’s a crucial part of the current Mets team and has gone from clumsy outfielder to crucial building block for a team devoid of hitters. Forget #TeamMurph. It’s time for Sandy Alderson to #SignMurph.

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MMO Game Thread: Mets vs Mariners, 10:10 PM http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/07/mmo-game-thread-mets-vs-mariners-1010-pm.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/07/mmo-game-thread-mets-vs-mariners-1010-pm.html/#comments Mon, 21 Jul 2014 22:31:35 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=161395

Today is the 10-year anniversary of David Wright‘s first game with the Mets as the team heads to Seattle for the start of a three-game series against the Mariners tonight at 10:10 PM. Jon Niese (5-4, 2.96 ERA) will return from the disabled list to face left-hander Roenis Elias (7-8, 4.54) for the M’s.

New York suffered its ninth walk-off loss of the year yesterday in a 2-1 setback at San Diego. The nine walk-off losses are the most in the majors. The Mets have 18 losses in the opponents’ final at-bat, which also leads the majors.

New York is playing in Seattle for just the second time in team history. The Mets were swept in a three-game series, June 17-19, 2005. The last time the two clubs met was in 2008 when the Mets went
1-2 vs. the Mariners. Seattle holds a 7-2 mark all-time vs. the Mets.

Jon Niese has gone 21 consecutive starts allowing three earned runs or less, the longest current streak in the majors. It is tied for the second-longest streak in team history and longest since Johan Santana also went 21 straight starts from July 22, 2009-May 11, 2009.

Daniel Murphy is eighth in the NL with a .304 road batting average. He collected his 25th double yesterday, his fifth season with 25 or more doubles. Murphy’s five years of 25 or more doubles is tied for the second-most in team history with Darryl Strawberry, Edgardo Alfonzo, Jose Reyes and Carlos BeltranDavid Wright is first with seven such seasons.

Although Bobby Abreu will sit out Monday’s game against Elias, New York manager Terry Collins said the outfielder will serve as his designated hitter on Tuesday and Wednesday. Collins has grown concerned that Abreu is losing some potency off the bench given his lack of playing time, as he is part of a four-man left-field mix that also includes Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Chris Young and Eric Young.

Starting Lineup

1. Curtis Granderson, RF
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Eric Campbell, 1B
5. Lucas Duda, DH
6. Travis d’Arnaud, C
7. Chris Young, LF
8. Juan Lagares, CF
9. Ruben Tejada, SS

After starting off strong on Friday, the Mets fell apart Saturday and then came just short of the comeback yesterday. The Padres were close a no hitter yesterday, then the Mets made a comeback in the 8th, but then tripped (maybe literally?) in the 9th. The Mets are making the rare trip to Seattle today as Jon Niese comes back from the disabled list as faces off against Elias.

Niese is 5-4 over 17 starts and 103.1 innings this year with a 2.96 ERA. Before he was injured at the start of the month he allowed 3 ER in three consecutive starts with 6.0 innings of work. It makes sense that, even though Niese is a veteran, he has never faced the Mariners. There are a few players who have seen him before:

• Morrison 3-9, 2B
• Cano 4-12, 2B
• Hart 2-8, 2B
• Bloomquist 2-3

Elias gets the start for the Mariners. He is a rookie with 19 starts this season over 113.0 innings, a 7-8 record and a 4.54 ERA. His last three starts have been a mess as he has pitched a total of 14.1 innings with 16 ER. Obviously, he has no record or stats against the Mets and Mets players.

Lets Go Mets!

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MMO Fan Shot: Keep Waving Those Towels http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/06/mmo-fan-shot-keep-waving-those-towels.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/06/mmo-fan-shot-keep-waving-those-towels.html/#comments Thu, 26 Jun 2014 13:22:13 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=159225

An MMO Fan Shot by Matt Szatkowski

Tough.

When describing the Mets, over the past 7 years, this adjective has hardly been used. As the infamous curveball buckled Carlos Beltran’s knees, it also seemed to take down the team’s mental fortitude. The 2007 season would bring more frustration ending in an epic collapse, and there would be more heartbreak in 2008. The Madoff revelations and the financial constraints that followed sent the franchise into a seemingly endless downward spiral.

Now, here we are almost halfway through the season barely escaping the doldrums of the NL East cellar. After a miserable stretch plummeted the Mets record to a season-high nine games under .500, most fans were tossing in the towel.

Curtis Granderson, who is no stranger to winning, found a better use for all these newly discarded pieces. Thus, the Mets rally towel was born. This was a simple concept that led to a newfound sense of camaraderie not seen in these parts for many years.

When Granderson was signed, he was garnering comparisons to another free-agent power hitter that once patrolled Citi Field’s spacious outfield, before he even had one at bat. Nightmares of Jason Bay once again became the leading cause of insomnia in the Tri-State area. Granderson’s slow start earned him a chorus of boos every time he stepped up to the plate. This team, and its fans, have witnessed a myriad of former stars such as Bay, Francisco Rodriguez, and Luis Castillo falter and never regain their form. Granderson’s strikeouts, and Bartolo Colon’s shaky start, cast a state of dread over a noticeably empty Citi Field. A feeling of “Here we go again…” took over.

However, as the heat of summer starts to bear down on us, we can gander at the stats sheet and be pleasantly surprised. Colon has rattled off six wins, including two back-to-back spectacular performances. Granderson, who struggled to hit the Mendoza line, has seen his average creep up to .234 with ten homers, and a league leading 47 walks, to accompany it. There’s no denying that these two have been key contributors to the teams most recent success.

But more importantly they have brought a sense of toughness to this team. Even during his worst struggles Granderson never hid from the media, and remained consistently positive. Both he and Colon realized they are professionals and have been through hardships before. Their resilience has rejuvenated their seasons and put excitement back in the clubhouse.

Travis d’Arnaud was quoted yesterday saying “I forgot how fun it was to play this game.” Baseball will humble even the greatest of players. It’s the only sport where being successful 30% of the time means you’re having a fantastic season. It’s imperative to stay tough, persevere, and good things will come.

Colon and Granderson have given this team a sense that there is still plenty of season left and that there’s still a light at the end of the tunnel for the Mets this season. Even when nothing seems to go right: those two keep fighting and are having some fun in the process. They keep the clubhouse loose. In a division that has is still up for grabs, who knows what could happen if more and more teammates take a page out of Colon and Granderson’s playbook.

Keep waving those towels. Let’s Go Mets!

### * * * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO community member Matt Szatkowski. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 30,000 Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to FanShot@MetsmerizedOnline.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

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MMO Doubleheader Thread: Diamondbacks vs Mets, 1:10 PM (SNY) http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/05/mmo-doubleheader-thread-diamondbacks-vs-mets-110-pm-sny.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/05/mmo-doubleheader-thread-diamondbacks-vs-mets-110-pm-sny.html/#comments Sun, 25 May 2014 16:16:40 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=156708

Lets play two…

The Mets play a Banner Day doubleheader today with Rafael Montero (0-2, 6.97 ERA) opposing Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Bronson Arroyo (4-3, 4.45) in the first game at 1:10 PM.

The single-admission doubleheader then continues with Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-0, 2.14) opposing right-hander Zeke Spruill (2-1, 4.72 at Triple-A Reno) in Game 2.

Daisuke Matsuzaka has a 1.71 ERA since September 8 of last season, the fourth best mark in the majors in that span (minimum 40 innings). Among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this season, Dice-K’s .130 opponent batting average is tied with Wade Davis for second best in the majors.

On the injury front, Travis d’Arnaud, who suffered a concussion on May 13 at Yankee Stadium, will begin a rehab assignment Sunday with Binghamton.

Meanwhile Dillon Gee looks like he will miss more than three turns in the rotation as he would have needed to make a rehab start today or Monday, if he were going to return next week.

David Wright has hit in seven straight games, going 13-29 (.448) with four multi-hit games, including three straight. He has 33 hits this month, the second-most in the NL, two behind Yasiel Puig of the Dodgers.

### Game 2 Lineup

1. Juan Lagares – CF
2. Daniel Murphy – 2B
3. David Wright – 3B
4. Curtis Granderson – LF
5. Bobby Abreu – RF
6. Eric Campbell – 1B
7. Wilmer Flores – SS
8. Anthony Recker – C
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka – RHP

The Mets dropped Saturday’s game against the Diamondbacks, but have the chance to take the entire series on Sunday as they play two to make up for Friday Night’s game. Both Arizona and New York are making roster changes for the day with the Diamondbacks adding Spruill to the roster in game two as a starter and Vic Black  coming in for the Mets.

The first starter for the Mets, Rafael Montero, is 0-2 in his first two starts as a major leaguer. Overall he has allowed 8 ER over 10.1 innings with his last start being a tough one allowed 4 ER over 4.1 innings, mainly due to walks. If he can come in today and get ahead of his control, he should be fine today. This will be the first time he faces hitters from Arizona’s lineup in a major league game.

The Mets bats in the first game get to face Bronson Arroyo, who is 4-3 this year over 9 starts and 54.2 innings with a 4.45 ERA. He started off May on a roll allowing one earned run, two runs total, over 23.1 innings over three games. In his last outing he allowed 5 ER over 7.0 innings. His worst start of the season by far was against the Mets were he allowed 9 ER over 10 hits and 3.1 innings. The Mets have the following stats against Bronson:

• Wright 11-41, HR
• C Young 4-21, 2 2B
• Abreu 3-14, 3B
• Murphy 8-16, 2 2B
• E Young 4-11

Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the start for the Mets in game two. He is ready to go about 100 pitches in his first start of the season. Over 14 games this year and 21.0 innings, he as a 2.14 ERA. Last year he had a 4.42 ERA over 7 starts and 38.2 innings. He did not play against the Diamondbacks earlier this year and the only three members of the Arizona club that have faced him are HIll (5-28, 2B, 2 HR), Pennington (2-7) and Chavez (2-3, HR).

In game two the Mets bats will get the first 2014 look at Zeke Spruill. He had limited time in the majors last season with a 0-2 record over 11.1 innings with a 5.56 ERA. The Mets have some stats against him:

• Flores 0-1
• Lagares 1-2
• Murphy 0-2
• Recker 1-2, 2B
• E Young 0-1
• Niese 1-1

Lets Go Mets!

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John Lannan Open To Bullpen Role http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/03/john-lannan-open-to-bullpen-role.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/03/john-lannan-open-to-bullpen-role.html/#comments Tue, 11 Mar 2014 15:17:56 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=150096

On Monday, the Mets included reliever Josh Edgin among their first wave of cuts and reassigned him to minor league camp. Edgin was not happy with the decision according to several beat reporters, however his reduced velocity has been a big concern and most likely factored into the Mets’ decision.

That leaves John Lannan as the lone contender for the role of second lefthander in the bullpen, and Terry Collins intends to start using him in relief effective immediately.

Lannan, 29, has never made a relief appearance in his eight year MLB career, but says he understood all along that it could be the plan when he signed with the Mets.

“They’ve been pretty transparent with that,” he said Tuesday morning. Obviously I’ll do anything to help the team, in any capacity.”

He admitted that he may need to adjust to the role.

“I want to see how I am when the phone rings and I don’t have any warning,” Lannan said. “You always hear about that adrenaline rush when the phone rings. If it does come to that point, I want to see how I react to that.”

When asked if he had any resignation about relieving because he will no longer get the same consideration as Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jenrry Mejia for a starter’s role, Lannan said:

“I don’t think anything right now. I’m just going to take it as it is. I think that I’m not done as a starter. I think the last few years I’ve kind of run into, I don’t want to say back luck, but some unfortunate circumstances…I don’t think I’m done [starting], but I’m looking forward to the possibility of pitching in the big leagues. Whatever capacity that is, I’m just looking forward to it.”

One of our readers pointed out Lannan’s splits over the last three years and I must admit they look impressive:

2011-2013

Vs Lefty .245/.313/.344/.657

Vs Righty .289/.365/.418/.783

There’s a lot of different things to consider between starting and relieving, but the Mets have nothing to lose and it’s not like they have any other options either.

(Updated 3/11)

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Debunking Three Myths About Sabermetrics http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/01/debunking-three-myths-about-sabermetrics.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/01/debunking-three-myths-about-sabermetrics.html/#comments Mon, 06 Jan 2014 01:27:59 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=138981

There has always been a perceived tension between pro-analytics baseball fans and anti-analytics fans. The battle is already over and done with in front offices, as both have been able to coexist, but there are still fans who disagree. Really, most of the disagreements are caused by ignorance towards the other side or just a lack of knowledge. For people to understand sabermetrics, they must get past some of the biggest myths. Here are a few of those myths, debunked.

### Myth #1: We ignore human emotion and intangibles.

Absolutely false. Intangibles, clubhouse chemistry, and more are all part of the thought process of a sabermetric front office (and the ideal sabermetric fan). Look at Paul DePodesta, known by some traditionalists as anti-intangibles, he talked non-stop after the draft about how he loved the personalities of some of the organization’s draft picks. He says it is a big part of how he drafts, even with the Mets being one of the most sabermetric teams in the game.

When you look at traditional statistics, it doesn’t incorporate intangibles or emotion either. Neither traditional nor sabermetric stats do, so it’s not just a sabermetric problem. Every organization has their own method for evaluating players, with some weighing personality, intangibles, and clubhouse chemistry more than others. That has existed much longer than sabermetrics has.

### Myth #2: It’s all about the numbers — and nothing else.

This covers a bit of the first point, but also enters another important topic: scouting. Some think that sabermetric teams (which now includes all but one or two teams in baseball) don’t emphasize scouting, or rely too much on their metrics.

I can’t tell you how a front office operates in that regard, but I can tell you that as someone who embraces sabermetrics, I value scouting.

Just as statistics can be predictive of a player’s future success, a scout can see the mechanics of a hitter’s swing and see unlimited potential, even when the numbers might say otherwise. Sometimes it’s the players that don’t succeed at first, but go on to have great careers.

While some may think statisticians don’t take anything but numbers into account (They think this because former players never become analysts, they become scouts), it’s simply untrue.

### Myth #3: The stats are subjective.

Here is where the importance of being informed comes in (if it hadn’t already). The purpose of sabermetrics is to look at the game of baseball in the least subjective way possible. The goal isn’t to take human emotion out of the game, but to take human emotion out of the way we evaluate the game.

There are often players who are “counted out” and cast aside. Take Josh Satin, for example. Satin didn’t receive any significant big league playing time until he was 28 years old, mostly due to his age. Satin played four years in college, and wasn’t aggressively promoted. That meant he eventually fell out of “prospect” status and was never promoted. He put up minor league numbers on par with David Wright‘s, yet he didn’t get a promotion until many years later. That’s what sabermetrics looks to eliminate. Players who are too fat, too old, too short, have unique/complicated mechanics, are frequently not given an opportunity. It really doesn’t matter if players have these traits if they can provide the same production as a “normal” player.

Back to the point. People tend to look at the coefficients of a statistic like wOBA (weighted On Base Average) and say it’s subjective, that the creator of the stat just chose the coefficients. But why would a group of people who strive to be as least subjective as possible arbitrarily choose coefficients to put into their equations? That answer is: they don’t.

Take my example of wOBA. The equation changes slightly every year, but here is the equation from the 2012 season:

wOBA = (0.691×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.884×1B + 1.257×2B + 1.593×3B +
2.058×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

Those numbers may seem random, but they are actually based on run expectancy, or how a particular event influence’s a team’s chances of scoring, which is what baseball is all about.

Slugging percentage tries to value events, but only does so for hits, and itself values the hits subjectively.

Is a team with a man on third three times as likely to score as a team who only has a man on first? Over one hundred years of baseball tell us no. Notice how an unintentional walk (uBB) isn’t worth the same as a single. This is because runners on base only advance one base (and only on a force) when the batter walks, while runners often advance multiple bases when the batter hits a single. This difference is statistically significant, and it is taken into account in this stat. See how this is all starting to come together?

* * * * * * * * *

There is a stigma surrounding analytics in baseball, just as there is in the rest of the non-sports world. People don’t like to believe that what they see (or how they perceive what they think) could be wrong.

It’s why people working for financial companies get frustrated when their economists put out bad projections, even when the economy is thriving. It’s really not about choosing one side or the other. It’s about acknowledging the pros and cons of each and using what you can see and what you can’t see together. That’s the best way to evaluate a baseball team.

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Mets Winter Leagues Update: Flores, Familia, Centeno Finished Strong http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/01/mets-winter-leagues-update-flores-familia-centeno-finished-strong.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/01/mets-winter-leagues-update-flores-familia-centeno-finished-strong.html/#comments Sat, 04 Jan 2014 22:46:01 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=138866 The Winter Ball regular season ended on December 30th for all Caribbean League teams in the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. The Colombian Winter League regular season will be completed on January 8, 2014.

Here are the final stats of the prospects in the various Caribbean Winter Leagues.

*all stats complete as of 12/30/2013

### Dominican Winter League

Cesar Puello - OF

2013 Winter League  – 41 games; .200/.252/.261, (23 for 115), 7 R, Double, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 5 BB, 5 SB

Notes: Last 10 games; .231/.333/.269, (6 for 26), Double, RBI, 3 BB, 2 SB

Joel Carreno - P

2013 Winter League - 17 games; 1-0, 2.08 ERA, 12 Hits, 4 ER, 2 HR, 6 BB, 20 K, 17.1 Inn, .197 AVG

Notes: Last 10 games; 1-0, 1.69 ERA, 5 Hits, 2 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 13 K, 10.2 Inn, .139 AVG

Jeurys Familia - P

2013 Winter League - 6 games; 2.70 ERA, 8 Hits, 2 ER, 3 BB, 12 K, 6.2 Inn, .276 AVG

### Mexican Winter League

Marcos Camarena - RP

2013 Winter League - 25 games; 1-3, 2.22 ERA, 21 Hits, 7 ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 23 K, 28.1 Inn, .210 AVG

Notes: Last 10 games; 1-0, 2.53 ERA, 10 Hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, 10 K, 10.2 Inn, .244 AVG

2013 Winter League - 55 games; .285/.347/.391, (51 for 179), 18 R, 10 Doubles, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 12 BB, 1 SB

Notes: Last 10 games; .290/.343/.355, (9 for 31) 4 R, 2 Doubles, 2 RBI, 1 BB

Juan Carlos Gamboa - 2B

2013 Winter League  - 27 games; .284/.379/.392, (21 for 74) 11 R, 2 Doubles, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 11 BB

Notes: last 10 games; .171/.293/.200, (6 for 35), 3 R, Double, 5 BB

### Puerto Rico Winter League

T.J. Rivera - INF

2013 Winter League - 13 games; .308/.357/.538, (4 for 13), HR, 5 RBI, BB

Randy Fontanez - P

2013 Winter League - 11 games; 1-1, 1.26 ERA, 10 Hits, 2 ER, 4 BB, 11 K, 14.1 Inn, .189 AVG

Juan Centeno - C

2013 Winter League - 28 games; .280/.337/.360, (21 for 75) 11 R, 3 Doubles, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 6 BB

Notes: Last 10 games: .296/.367/.333, (8 for 27), 4 R, Double, 4 RBI, 2 BB

Jon Velasquez - P

2013 Winter League - 24 games; 3-0, 1.73 ERA, 18 Hits, 5 ERA, HR, 8 BB, 26 K, 26 Inn, .209 AVG

Notes: Last 10 games; 2-0, 1.08 ERA, 5 Hits, 1 ER, 5 BB, 12 K, 8.1 Inn, .172 AVG

### Venezuelan Winter League

Miller Diaz- P

2013 Winter League - 15 games; 2-1, 2.57 ERA, SV, 13 Hits, 4 ER, 11 BB, 9 K, 14 Inn, .255 AVG

Notes: Last 10 games; 2-1, 3.60 ERA, 10 Hits, 4 ER, 10 BB, 7 K, 10 Inn, .278 AVG

Wilmer Flores - 3B

2013 Winter League – 23 games; .375/.434/.545, (33 for 88), 7 R, 6 Doubles, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 9 BB

Notes: Last 10 games; .357/.400/.619, (15 for 45), 5 R, 2 Doubles, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 3 BB

Hamilton Bennett  - P

2013 Winter League - 4 games; 11.57 ERA, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 2.1 Inn, .364 AVG

Chase Huchingson - P

2013 Winter League - 9 games; 0-1, 3.38 ERA, 4 Hits, 2 ER, 8 BB, 5 K, 5.1 Inn, .222 AVG

### Colombian Winter League

Regular season ends on January 8, 2014.

*all stats active as of 1/02/2014

Dilson Herrera – 2B

2013 Winter League - 34 games; .272 AVG, (31 for 114), 16 R, 9 Doubles, Triple, 2 HR, 21 RBI, 23 BB, 3 SB, .421 SLUG

Pedro Perez – OF

2013 Winter League – 26 games; .205 AVG, (15 for 75), 8 R, HR, 6 RBI, 9 BB, .247 SLUG

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Mets Winter League Update http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/12/mets-winter-league-update-2.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/12/mets-winter-league-update-2.html/#comments Sat, 14 Dec 2013 03:01:52 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=135523 Here are the updated stats of the prospects in the various Winter Baseball Leagues.

*all stats active as of 12/12/2013

Dominican Winter League

Cesar Puello - OF

2013 Winter League – 32 games; (18 for 92), .196/.237/.261, 5 R, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 3 SB

Joel Carreno - P

2013 Winter League - 14 games; 1-0, 1.84 ERA, 4 BB, 14 K, 14.2 inn, .196 AVG

Mexican Winter League

Marcos Camarena - RP

2013 Winter League - 19 games; 0-3, 1.69 ERA, 1 SV, 17 K, in 21.1 innings,  .181 AVG

2013 Winter League - 41 games; (35 for 129), .271/.345/.349, 11 R, 7 Doubles, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 11 BB

Puerto Rico Winter League

T.J. Rivera - INF

2013 Winter League - 9 games; (4 for 13), .308/.357/.538, 2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI

Venezuelan Winter League

Miller Diaz- P

2013 Winter League - 10 games; 1-1, 1.13 ERA, 1 SV, 6 K, 8 inn, .313 AVG

Colombian Winter League

Dilson Herrera – 2B

2013 Winter League: 21 games, (22 for 75), .293 AVG, .453 SLUG, 10 R, 7 Doubles, 15 RBI, 11 BB

Pedro Perez – OF

2013 Winter League: 18 games, (12 for 53), .226 AVG, .283 SLUG, 6 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 8 BB

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Mets Winter League Update http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/mets-winter-league-update.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/mets-winter-league-update.html/#comments Sat, 30 Nov 2013 11:55:59 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=134114 Here are the updated stats for Mets players and prospects currently playing in the various Winter Baseball Leagues.

All stats are updated through games of 11/29/2013

### Dominican Winter League

Juan Lagares - OF

2013 Winter League - 25 games; (36 for 101), .356/.391/.436, 14 R, 5 Doubles, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 5 SB

2013 Winter League - 28 games; (16 for 84),  .190/.346/.345, 2 Double, 1 Triple, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 16 BB

Cesar Puello - OF

2013 Winter League – 25 games; (13 for 72), .181/.213/.264, 5 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 3 SB

Gonzalez Germen – P

2013 Winter League - 9 games; 2-0, 2.08 ERA, 5 K, 8.2 Inn, .323 AVG

Joel Carreno – P

2013 Winter League – 9 games; 0-0, 2.16 ERA, 2 BB, 11 K, 8.1 inn, .258 AVG

### Mexican Winter League

Marcos Camarena - RP

2013 Winter League - 13 games; 0-3, 1.72 ERA, 1 SV, 13 K, in 15.2 innings,  .176 AVG

2013 Winter League - 33 games; (31 for 103), .301/.365/.398, 9 R, 7 Doubles, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 8 BB

Juan Carlos Gamboa – 2B

2013 Winter League – 15 games; (10 for 29), .345/.429/.586, 5 R, 1 Double, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 5 BB

### Puerto Rico Winter League

Juan Centeno – C

2013 Winter League - 12 games; (6 for 33), .182/.243/.203, 6 R, 1 Double, 3 BB, 3 RBI

Randy Fontanez – P

2013 Winter League - 2 games; 1-0, 0.00, 1 K, 2.0 inn, .333 AVG

### Venezuelan Winter League

Wilfredo Tovar - SS

2013 Winter League - 15 games; (13 for 53),  .245/.273/.396, 4 R, 3 Doubles, 1 Triple, 1 HR, 8 RBI

Miller Diaz- P

2013 Winter League – 8 games; 0-0, 1.50 ERA, 1 SV, 5 K, 6.0 IP, .250 AVG

### Colombian Winter League

Dilson Herrera – 2B

2013 Winter League: 11 games, (11 for 42), .262 AVG, .357 SLUG, 5 R, 4 Doubles, 8 RBI, 6 BB

Pedro Perez – OF

2013 Winter League: 8 games, (4 for 23), .174 AVG, .304 SLUG, 3 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB

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MMO Fan Shot: Nelson Cruz, Keep on Cruzin’ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/mmo-fan-shot-nelson-cruz-keep-on-cruzin.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/mmo-fan-shot-nelson-cruz-keep-on-cruzin.html/#comments Wed, 27 Nov 2013 16:00:03 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=133880

If we look at the methodical approach of the Mets’ front office the past few winters, and every legitimate Mets fan has, there is no conceivable scenario that Nelson Cruz ends up a New York Met for four years and \$75 million dollars. And we should be glad that’s the case.

In fact, I don’t want any part of Cruz for less.

Not simply because of PEDs, not simply because of his age, and not simply because of the money he’s demanding, but because he just isn’t a very good player.

If we’re being honest with ourselves and not wearing desperation colored glasses (who could blame us, though?) we’ll notice that, besides Cruz’s defensive shortcomings and his inability to stay on the field (missed 148 games due to suspension and injury the past four seasons), Nelson Cruz’s home and away splits are just disastrous.

Everyone knows Arlington is a launching pad, especially in comparison to Citi Field. Over the past four years here are Cruz’s splits averaged out:

### Home:

 232 AB 16 HR 47 RBI .301 AVG

### Away:

 235 AB 9.7 HR 35 RBI .253 AVG

These stats are too stark to ignore and there’s no reason to suspect his road stats would be any different at Citi—if not worsened.

I didn’t even average in his splits from five years ago, but they illustrate my point even further. I’ve left them out because I wanted to highlight 2009, which was Cruz’s most prolific power year when he hit: 33 home runs.

As a team desperately in need of a “power bat,” the Mets would covet 33 homerun output. But when I looked at the splits again, I was alarmed not encouraged.

### Home:

 234 AB 18 HR 45 RBI .286 AVG

### Away:

 228 AB 15 HR 31 RBI .232 AVG

While the power didn’t drop off much on the road, the average dipped precipitously. It’s also worth mentioning that his OBP at home was .362, while it was only .300 on the road.

If this was Cruz’s peak not only was it five years ago, but the stats consistently highlight warts in his hitting game that would only be magnified if, essentially, he plays all of his games on the road. At least that’s what his life would be like as a Metropolitan.

## * * * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader, Matt Naham. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 22,000 Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

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Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen Win Most Valuable Player Awards http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen-win-most-valuable-player-awards.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/miguel-cabrera-andrew-mccutchen-win-most-valuable-player-awards.html/#comments Fri, 15 Nov 2013 03:11:15 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=133009 Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers and Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates were named American and National League Most Valuable Players tonight by members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Cabrera finished with 385 points, while Mike Trout got five first-place votes and 282 points. Baltimore’s first baseman Chris Davis, who led the majors with 53 homers and 138 RBIs, was third.

Cabrera, 30, is the first American Leaguer to win back-to-back MVPs since Frank Thomas in 1993 and ’94 and just the sixth ever to do so in that league. Last year, Cabrera became the first hitter to win the Triple Crown in either league in 45 years. This season, he was better across the board, falling two RBIs short of his 2012 total of 139 and matching his home run output of 44 in fewer plate appearances while posting career highs in batting average (.348), slugging percentage (.636) and OPS+ (187).

McCutchen, third in MVP balloting last season, got 409 points. Arizona’s Paul Goldschmidt finished second with 242 points, while Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina received the other two first-place votes and came in third. Pittsburgh has its first NL MVP since Barry Bonds in ’92.

McCutchen, 27, batted .317/.404/.508 with 21 homers and 84 RBIs this season. Over the last two seasons he has hit .322/.402/.531 (160 OPS+) while averaging 102 runs, 190 hits, 26 home runs, 90 RBIs and 24 stolen bases, while playing a strong centerfield.

Congratulations to both Miguel and Andrew.

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Puello Is Another Met Prospect To Watch In Winter Ball http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/puello-is-just-one-met-prospect-to-watch-in-winter-ball.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/11/puello-is-just-one-met-prospect-to-watch-in-winter-ball.html/#comments Sun, 03 Nov 2013 17:08:03 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=132135 Baseball America on Friday listed the Nine Key Players To Watch In Winter Ball and #8 on their list was Mets Top Prospect Cesar Puello.

After missing the rest of the 2013 season due to being handed a 50 game suspension in early August for his involvement in the Biogenesis scandal, he is in winter ball working towards regaining the swing that helped him put up some tremendous numbers in the first half with the B- Mets where he batted .326/.403/.547 with 16 home runs and 73 RBIs.

It was a great year cut short, and now he has hopes that he can use the Dominican Winter League to refuel that fire in his swing and prove that the numbers weren’t chemically enhanced.

So far through 10 games in the Dominican Winter League with the Toros, he is hitting .265/.265/.382 with one home run.

It’s far too soon to read anything into his early performance as he shakes off months of rust, and it may take a while to regain the timing that helped become the productive player he was before the suspension.

Puello will need plenty of playing time until he has enough plate appearances and starts to form a reliable evaluation, but I feel that once he becomes more comfortable, he’ll start to be as productive as he was before.

The key for Puello is to put the suspension behind him and focus on making a case for what’s to come in 2014. It would be good to see him start to hit in the DR before heading to spring training in February, not only as a step in the right direction for his own development, but also to enhance and reestablish his status as a top prospect.

Not that playing with the Toros should be any added pressure, but all eyes are on him to see if the pre-suspension numbers are what fans could continue to look forward to.

(Photo Credit: Gordon Donovan)

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Arizona Fall League Update: Robles Bests the Best http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/10/arizona-fall-league-update-robles-bests-the-best.html/ http://metsmerizedonline.com/2013/10/arizona-fall-league-update-robles-bests-the-best.html/#comments Thu, 24 Oct 2013 02:47:22 +0000 http://metsmerizedonline.com/?p=131634

Hansel Robles pitched for the Scottsdale Scorpions today and gave up four hits while striking out one while keeping the league-best Mesa Solar Sox scoreless in four innings. Chasen Bradford pitched one scoreless inning, giving up one hit in the 8th. No other Mets played today for the Scorpions.

Stats for the Arizona Fall League Mets so far:

Cory Vaughn

9 Games 9 for 38 .237 avg 4R, 2 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 3/12 BB:K 2/1 SB/CS .310/.421/.731

Aderlin Rodriguez

8 Games, 6 for 31 .194 avg 2R, 1 2B, 0/8 BB:K .219/.226/.445

Cam Maron

7 games, 3 for 19 .158 avg 4R, 1 2B, 8/3 BB:K .407/.211/.618

Hansel Robles

0-1 3GS 3.38 era 8IP 8H, 3ER, 2/6 BB:K

Chasen Bradford

1-0 5G 0.00 era 5.1IP 2H, 1/3 BB:K 1 Save

Cody Satterwhite

5G 0.00 era 5IP 4H 3/5 BB:K 1 Save

Jeurys Familia

3G 12.00 era 3ip 3H 4ER 1HR 2/4 BB/K

My Take

As you can plainly see about our hitters: They are all struggling. Vaughn has done the best hitting 3 of his 9 hits for extra bases, but his nature to strike out has been exposed. Aderlin Rodriguez has been struggling, mostly to make contact, and hasn’t drawn a single walk. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because he shaking off the cobwebs after missing half the year while facing against elite competition. Cam Maron has proven his tool of plate discipline drawing almost three times as many walks as he has struck out. There is obviously need for improvement, which will happen as our players adjust to the league.

On the center of the diamond, pitching has been mostly thriving. Hansel Robles has been steadily improving from letting two runs in his first appearance over an inning, to letting one run in 3 innings the following start, and then pitching spectacularly in his third start. Chasen Bradford has proved why he was sent to the AFL, tossing up zeroes in all five and a third innings, as has Cody Satterwhite. Jeurys Familia has been struggling since his first appearance to get himself back together after having surgery during the season. He has the chance to turn it around however.

Look for more updates during the next few weeks, and an interesting tool to use to keep track of the Met’s players in the winter leagues by clicking here.

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