Today’s pitching matchup at Citi Field, Adam Wainwright vs. Matt Harvey, is a duel between the two best pitchers in the National League according to the Factor12 (F12) Rating. F12 compares each MLB pitcher to the current statistical league average. (Here is a more detailed description of F12)

Wainwright (33.001 F12, 1st) is having an incredible season for the Cardinals, having allowed only seven walks and two home runs in 96 innings pitched. His ERA stands at just 2.34, 6th best in the NL.

The St. Louis ace comes at hitters with an impressive mix of pitches. He starts with a combination of low-90s 2-seam fastball and 89-90 mph cutter. The right-hander will primarily use the cutter to his glove side, pounding lefties inside. Wainwright’s signature pitch is his curveball, a weapon that I rate as one of the best single pitches in the game. It’s the pitch that famously ended the 2006 NLCS and seven years later it’s still Wainwright’s strikeout pitch. Adam also owns a tight mid-80s slider that he will sweep away from free-swinging righties. Wainwright replaced his changeup with a splitter at some point post-elbow surgery, giving him another swing-and-miss offering. The Georgia-born hurler’s repertoire is excellent, but it is his uncanny control of each pitch that makes him one of the top starters in the game.

[ fastball(87-93), cutter(87-90), curve(67-78), slider(84-89), splitter(80-85) ]

No secret to Mets fans, Harvey (32.100 F12, 2nd) has exploded onto the scene in 2013, striking out hitters in bunches. Batters are hitting just .196 against Harvey as he continues to blow away NL lineups in 2013.

If you haven’t realized by now, Harvey is the ultimate power pitcher. He throws a heavy mid-90s fastball out of his strong frame. Matt appears willing and able to pitch inside, as well as up in the zone. Harvey also has two excellent breaking balls. He fires a sharp slide-piece to his glove side that gets swings-and-misses. He’ll also twirl a hard, plus curveball. Harvey can throw the curve for a strike, and the action of the pitch can get K’s even when it’s in the heart of the plate. The fourth pitch in his arsenal is the changeup, which gets good deception and movement.

[ fastball(91-98), curve(79-86), slider(87-91), changeup(85-88) ]

This matchup hasn’t received the same hype as the Strasburg/Harvey duel from earlier in the season.  However, rain permitting, we could be in for a more impressive display of pitching this afternoon.

NL Central At A Glance

Chicago Cubs: If you think it can’t get worse than where the Mets were – take a look at the Cubs. However, they are getting to a point of respectability. Jeff Samardzija went from that guy who played tight end for Notre Dame to a potential ace. He has some serious talent, but is he an ace for a good team or does he just happened to be the best pitcher on a bad team? There’s really no denying that the Cubs are relying on Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo to take them to the top in the future. Are they for real? They are still pretty young, but this year is a huge year for them. Can Castro turn the corner, and can Rizzo burst out onto the scene? The most exciting closer in baseball is Carlos Marmol. Now, remember I said “exciting.” He’s exciting because you never really know what you’re going to get, and if most Cubs fans get what they want – Marmol will be heading out of Chicago before July 31st.

Milwaukee Brewers:: When I saw the Brewers agreed with Kyle Lohse, I thought to myself, “self, will this move matter?” The answer is no. He will provide some quality innings, there’s no doubt about that but I am sensing the calm before the storm for Milwaukee. I do not think Major League Baseball is going to let this Miami-PED scandal die without exhausting every possible Ryan Braun connection. I believe Braun will get suspended during this season, and if that happens – it will solidify their 4th place finish for me. Aramis Ramirez is a player that will suffer from anything that happens to Braun if my prediction comes through. He’s not getting any younger, and I think he’s going to start declining.

Pittsburgh Pirates:: Their offseason changes really aren’t too impactful if you ask me. If Liriano stays healthy, then obviously he can make a huge difference but that is a huge “if.” The chip that was on A.J. Burnett’s shoulder could be gone, and I wonder if that will have a negative effect on his performance? I am a big James McDonald fan. In 29 starts he threw 171 innings, gave up 147 hits and struck out 151. His issue has been the long ball. He gave up 21 HR, and that has held him back. If he lessens the mistakes, and keeps the ball inside PNC – he could become an All-Star. This team really centers around Andrew McCutchen and his rising star quality. Can he take the next step to becoming an elite player in the game or will he just be a nice player on an average team? Can he take Pittsburgh to the next level?

St. Louis Cardinals:: No matter how many things go wrong for this team, they always seem to be in the mix. Recently, Jason Motte hit the DL with an elbow issue but let’s be serious, they always find a way to bounce back. They have Mitchell Boggs who will step in, but for all we know there is a kid in their system who will get a shot and be lights out. There are two players on this roster I really am excited to watch. Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter. We’ll start with Carpenter. To me, he is what we all want Daniel Murphy to be. He, along with guys like Ben Zobrist are becoming these versatile players that everybody loves to watch. Carpenter will be their second basemen after serving in the utility role last year. Allen Craig to me is amazing because he takes over for Pujols, and if he stays healthy he can be one of the elite power hitters in the game. The outfield is lead by Holliday and Beltran, and I am a tad curious to see how Beltran does this year. His second half was actually pretty terrible last year, was that just a slump or is he breaking down? Adam Wainwright just cashed in a major payday, so now the pressure is on for him to be a Cy Young contender.

Cincinnati Reds:: You’re probably not going to find a more complete team in baseball than the Reds. They aren’t as star driven as some other teams, but I think they are the most talented top to bottom. The biggest concern I have here is the potential for ruining Aroldis Chapman. I get the value of a starting pitcher, but if I had to ask the Reds management one question this is what I’d ask. After 1997, would you have tried to convert Mariano Rivera to a starter if you were the Yankees? That’s how good Chapman can be. And while I do think a closer can be overrated, they aren’t overrated when they are special. As of now, the Reds say he is back to the bullpen, but will they hit the panic button if they have an injury in the rotation? The Reds were very fortunate and very healthy in the rotation last year, are the baseball Gods that kind in consecutive years? They don’t have a Cy Young winner in the mix, but they have 4 extremely solid starters and one in Arroyo whom you never know what you’ll get. Their lineup has everything you need, they have some speed, power, and an ability to exhaust the opposition. I hate the phrase “if healthy,” because I think it applies to everybody – but seriously, if healthy they will be the number 1 seed in the National League.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs
Jessep: Reds, Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs
Joe D: Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Allen Craig, St. Louis
Jessep: Matt Carpenter , St. Louis
Joe D: Anthony Rizzo, Chicago  

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Oscar Taveras, St. Louis
Jessep: Shelby Miller, St. Louis
Joe D: Oscar Taveras, St. Louis

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
Jessep: Johnny Cueto, St. Louis
Joe D: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
Jessep: Joey Votto, Cincinnati
Joe D: Joey Votto, Cincinnati

Next up will be the NL East.

In an article by Robert Passikoff on Forbes.com, the Mets fan base ranked almost at the bottom when it comes to team loyalty.

According to their Sports Fan Loyalty Index, Mets fans ranked 26 out among all 30 MLB teams when it comes to supporting the team.

The top five loyal fan bases are:

1. New York Yankees
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. San Francisco Giants
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Atlanta Braves

The Mets ranked at the bottom with the Astros, Pirates, Royals and Mariners. That’s embarrassing.

The factors that are used to determine the Loyalty Index are not based on attendance alone or won/loss record:

Everybody loves a winner, but it’s important to note that win/loss ratios do not entirely govern fan loyalty. Losing may have little to recommend it, but it turns out there are more important things than the final score. – three other emotionally based things, in fact, that really must be taken into account when calculating the loyalty score for a team:

• Pure Entertainment: How well a team does, sure. But even more importantly than a win-loss ratio, how exciting is their play? Think St. Louis Cardinals.
• Authenticity: How well they play as a team.
• Fan Bonding: Are players particularly respected and admired?
• History and Tradition: Is the game and the team part of fans’ and community rituals, institutions and beliefs?

Look at those factors and then calculate where the Mets fit in with each one. You can easily account for why the loyalty isn’t as high as it should be, and the fault lies with the team not the fans.

Many of the players who connected with fans are long gone. It took the team a few years just to add some Mets history to Cit Field – and only after much prodding from fans. And where is the pure entertainment value?

What bugs me most is seeing the Yankees, Braves and Phillies ranked so high. I hate those teams!

With the news breaking that All-Star Shortstop Jose Reyes would run Sunday, which he did, and then fly to Brooklyn today for a rehab game with the Cyclones – it’s just what the doctor ordered for the Mets.

Right now the Mets are on thin ice, they stand 8 1/2 games behind the wild card leading Atlanta Braves, who like the Philadelphia Phillies just don’t seem to lose, making it difficult for the Mets to make up any kind of ground in the standings.

Now the Amazin’s have not helped themselves by doing what every contending team needs to do, which is win in your home ballpark. The Mets are now four games under .500 at home, but have a chance to break even at .500 for the season at home with a win tomorrow in a makeup game against the Marlins combined with a three game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals – a daunting task.

So what does this all have to do with Jose Reyes you may ask? Well, depending on how these next four games go, it could determine whether Carlos Beltran remains a Met before the Mets head out to Florida to open up a 10 game road trip… it could determine if the Metropolitans in fact become sellers sooner rather than later.

A Reyes return will do wonders for an offense that has struggled mightily of late outside of Saturday’s 11-run outburst  and today’s late rally to net the Mets five runs, most of which came when the game was already decided.

With Reyes’ return not only will you get his play, but he will bring back some excitement and energy at the top of the order, something the team has lacked since the 28-year-old went down. No knock on Angel Pagan, but he just doesn’t have the patience or ability to be a leadoff man, he’s best suited either hitting behind Reyes in the two hole, or down in the order in the fifth or six slot.

If the Mets can get hot here in the next week or so, imagine a lineup that would feature the likes of Reyes, a healthy David Wright, Carlos Beltran (if he’s not traded), Daniel Murphy, Jason Bay, and Angel Pagan. All of a sudden, the Mets could have themselves one of the NL’s stronger lineups to go along with a starting rotation that’s been better than anyone expected, considering they’ve been without their ace Johan Santana all season.

If Reyes hits the ground running on Tuesday, it could put the Mets back on track and prolong what some believe is the inevitable trade of Beltran

I was recently able to sit down with Cardinals’ Assistant General Manger Michael Girsch, Baseball Development Analyst Chris Correa, and team Arbitration Lawyer Hal Welford after they gave a presentation on statistical modeling in baseball.

The casual fan does not realize how much the front offices do to try to model any decision that they will be making. Some of these models are very accurate while others are just used to give the front office a good sense of what is going on.

One of the first things that a front office does is look to project the net annual cash flow of any player they sign. To calculate this they look the player’s production minus their salary. They use a discounted cash flow model to try to determine the player’s production value. For the Cardinals, this value is determined by the player’s Runs above Replacement value. They then discount it by using calculations of how much a win today is worth versus a win in the future.

For a team like the Royals, with their strong farm system, a win in two years is likely worth more to them then a win now, while with a team like the Yankees, a win today is worth a lot.

Each team has a different dollar amount that it plans to spend for each run above replacement level. This is generally impacted by market size.

In addition to these calculations, the teams are also looking toward calculations that they will be able to do in the future. One thing in development that will provide much more data is Field F/X. This is a system that uses hundreds of cameras to take hundreds of measurements a second. This system will be able to give front offices information about location, speed, and direction of every player and the ball at all times. In turn, this will allow teams to see things such as whether or not an outfielder consistently gets a good jump on the ball.

Even with all this data, the best analytics may only provide a slight edge. Part of this is related to the fact that there have become more teams who are taking a deeper look at the numbers. According to Correa teams with a large analytical department can still have an advantage. He stated this is because, “most teams have few guys working with data”.

However, the competitive advantage of using statistics has changed since it was revolutionized by Billy Beane and the Moneyball strategy. Now, according to Girsch, there are “fewer mispricings in the market. The quality of data available now versus the ‘90’s is so much different. On-base percentage is no longer undervalued”.

Some teams have even chosen not to have an analytical group in their front office. The Twins don’t have one and yet they are able to compete because they have very strong scouting and player development.

Another interesting topic that came up during the presentation was the arbitration process. It was noted that for relievers, their salary is driven by saves, holds, and ERA and that for starters, wins played a large role in addition to awards they have won.

When it was asked why sabermetrics are not used in this process, Welford noted “many arbiters are either economics professors or lawyers, not baseball fans. The information needs to be toned down”.

In addition, Welford said that fan appeal is a factor in the arbitration process, but more so for pitchers. He mentioned the example of Fernando Valenzuela. He said “More than 10,000 fans showed up when he pitched regardless of whether it was at home or on the road. He had a significant impact on the gates”.

From there, the conversation branched off into a conversation about how Clayton Kershaw and David Price could redefine the arbitration market. Ben Nicholson-Smith brought up this concept earlier in the week over at MLB Trade Rumors.

Welford said that the market for these two would be incredibly difficult to establish. He said that “both will be compared to Tim Lincecum and even then, it is still hard to use that as a comparison. If they go year to year, that is very different than the two your deal Lincecum got”.

The conversation then moved toward scouting. When I asked about the impact of luck and stats such as BABIP, Correa said that they are looked at very differently depending on the level. He said, “we don’t really used BABIP (for hitters and pitchers) much in the MLB because we have a lot of batted ball data. However, it is very useful when it comes to evaluating players in the minors, college, or even high school”.

This is not the only time where there is a difference between the majors and other levels when it comes to statistics. It was asked if sabermetrics, Pitch F/X, and scouting reports were used in combination to make determinations about players. Girsch noted that this is done during the draft because it is “a discreet event and we can combine data”. However, he also stated that it is much harder to do at the pro level “because your looking at that data and the information can change between April and June”.

Finally, the questions moved onto information relating to the Cardinals. A question was asked about how Adam Wainwright would be evaluated since he has already established that he has superstar potential but his future is now uncertain. Correa said that the team uses a model to project a player’s ability when they return from specific injuries.  According to Girsch, the team has also developed models that “try to pick out injuries to a pitcher based on injury history, fastball velocity, and mechanics”. However, Girsch also stated that these models are not that great but they are still useful. He also said that the team even attempted to model Matt Holliday’s return from his appendectomy but there was not even data available.

The last set of questions was related to the topic that is on everyone’s mind in St. Louis: Albert Pujols.

Pujols means so much to the city and has so much intangible value. However, it could not be modeled by the front office because according to Girsch, the team “doesn’t have analytics for that. We try to talk to ticket sales and marketing, but there are not enough examples like Pujols to actually do any analysis”.

Then, I asked the big question about Pujols’ value and future production. Girsch responded by saying, “It’s really hard. We try to develop an aging curve using all players in the past fifteen years and use that. We can try to limit it to just All-Stars.  However, every guy is unique. He could be like Frank Thomas and just drop off, or like Barry Bonds and miraculously get better with age, or he could be like Hank Aaron and stay consistent as he gets older”.

The team has also stated that it will not talk about the Pujols contract situation.

It is my belief that it is more about if the owners decide to open up their checkbook to pay Albert what he wants than anything else. The number that they guys present really doesn’t matter because Albert will be able to get what he wants out on the open market.

Thompson was to have begun serving his suspension tonight as the Cardinals opened up a series against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park.  However, Thompson chose to file an appeal, thus delaying his suspension until his case is presented.  He will be allowed to pitch for the Cardinals until the case is reviewed, at which time the suspension will be upheld or reduced.

The incident occurred during the sixth inning of Wednesday’s 9-0 Mets victory over St. Louis at Citi Field.  In the previous inning, Nelson Figueroa had hit Cardinals’ slugger Albert Pujols with a pitch near his right elbow.  This loaded the bases for Matt Holliday, who proceeded to strike out to end the rally.  Following the unwritten baseball rule of “you hit our best player, we hit yours”, Brad Thompson took it upon himself to throw a high, inside fastball near the head of David Wright.  As stated before, Figueroa’s pitch was not near the head of Pujols.

Wright’s at-bat in the bottom of the sixth inning was his first after the Pujols beaning.  The high and tight fastball seemed uncharacteristic for Thompson, who is a sinkerball pitcher.  Given the fact that this was Wright’s first plate appearance after Pujols was hit and that the high, inside heater was not part of Thompson’s repertoire, it was concluded that the pitch couldn’t be anything but intentional.

Gary Sheffield said it best when asked for his reaction to Thompson’s attempt to send a “message” to the Mets for hitting Pujols:

“That’s uncalled for because you can do serious damage to somebody with a baseball. Throwing 90 mph, you can do a lot of damage. We didn’t try to hit Pujols, and unfortunately, they probably felt we did, and that is why they retaliated.”

Of course, Thompson saw things differently when he was asked after the game for his thoughts on the ill-fated pitch to Wright.

“You throw a ball like that at somebody’s head, especially after something happened earlier, and you expect a warning.  I’m not going to try to hit David Wright in the head.  I’m not going to hit anybody in the head.”

Kudos to Major League Baseball for its swift decision to suspend Brad Thompson.  Had the ball hit Wright in the head, he might have been out for more than the three days Thompson will miss.  Throwing at a batter to protect one of your own is acceptable and expected in baseball, but throwing at one’s head is never acceptable under any circumstances.  David Wright was fortunate that he was not struck by the pitch.  He might have suffered an injury that would have required far more than just a trip to the disabled list.

To borrow a line from Keith Hernandez “You kids out there who are new to the game” may not realize that once upon at time, the Mets and Cardinals played together in the Eastern Division of the National League.

Of course old time fans remember when the Mets and Cards used to share a spring training facility at Al Lang Park in St. Petersburg. In the middle 1980′s, 1985, 1986 and 1987 in particular you couldn’t find a better rivalry.

Whitey Herzog’s 1985 Cardinals edged the Mets out for the NL East flag by three games. There was something about the way the 1985 season ended that just made me feel 1986 was going to be a special year for the Mets.

In 1987 the Cards edged the Mets by 3 games again to win the NL East flag . But oh how those Cardinal teams would make me (or most Met fans), crazy. Those were the speed demon Cardinal teams. The teams of Vince Coleman, Willie McGee, Terry Pendleton and of course Ozzie Smith. At the time it seemed the the Met pitchers never held the Cardinal base runners close, and that Gary Carter couldn’t throw anyone out. Those were just such huge games back then. Like the Philly games have been for the last few years.

In 2006 it was only fitting for the NL crown to come down to the old NL East rivals. Too bad it didn’t work out for the Mets. But I will always think of the Cardinals as one of the Mets most bitter rivals.