Bob Klapisch of The Record, mirrors my post from Monday that the Terry Collins watch has begun:

The countdown on Terry Collins began on the first day of pitchers and catchers and nothing so far has made it any easier to believe he’ll be back with the Mets in 2014. Of course, Collins has handled his lame-duck status with grace and maturity — he’s an honest guy, good with people — but that hasn’t stopped Sandy Alderson from letting his manager continue to drift away from the mother ship.

Collins, no dummy, knows he would’ve already received a vote of confidence, even in private, if Alderson and Jeff Wilpon were entirely sold on his body of work. Both men know what job security — or its absence — does to a manager’s standing in the clubhouse. Without a commitment from ownership, Collins looks like a short-timer on a bad team, a latter-day George Bamberger. The current six-game losing streak, including embarrassing back-to-back losses to the Marlins, doesn’t help his cause, either.

Collins seems to be making one bad decision after another during this current losing streak. It’s hard to ignore his bad calls and the become more glaring especially with the team losing 10 of their last 13 games.

Last night, in a critical save situation – in a game the Mets needed so desperately to win – he called upon Brandon Lyon while his regular closer Bobby Parnell was armed and ready to go.

Lets just say that it didn’t work out too well for the Mets…

Reportedly, Parnell was pissed off after the game and was angry that he didn’t get the chance to preserve the win for Jeremy Hefner who pitched the game of his life and deserved a better fate.

Tick, tick, tick, tick….

Original Post 4/29

After getting off to a 7-4 start to the season, the Mets have now lost nine of their last 12 games and aside from when Matt Harvey and Jon Niese are on the hill, you don’t get the sense that the Mets will win that day.

Part of the problem was a middle to back end of the rotation that was ill-conceived from the beginning. The ever so reliable R.A. Dickey was replaced with Shaun Marcum who has already missed nearly a month of the season. Not surprising coming off an injury plagued season in 2012.

The bullpen, which has been among league’s worst for two years in a row, is in familiar territory once again and sporting the highest ERA in the league and the second worst mark in baseball. While Bobby Parnell has made advances in the closer role, the league is batting .324 against LaTroy Hawkins, Josh Edgin and Glen Burke have already been cut, and Scott Atchison, Brandon Lyon and Robert Carson each have ERAs over 4.00.

The outfield, which many thought would be better than last year’s version, is producing at the bottom of the MLB barrel again. Collin Cowgill is batting a gritty .169, and Marlon Byrd is providing a veteran presence to go with his .235 average. Those two were announced as everyday outfielders on Opening Day and experiment that lasted all of three games. Adding to the folly is the scrappy Mike Baxter and his .229 average. After a solid start, Lucas Duda has been mired in a slump and is batting .233 in his last ten games. Jordany Valdespin is probably the Mets’ best option, but is still relegated to bench and spot duty. He didn’t even merit a start a day after a game winning grand slam.

You have a mixed bag in the infield with David Wright holding up his end of the bargain with a .309 average and a .506 slugging, and Daniel Murphy continues to defy his skeptics offensively and defensively. Ike Davis has been a sore spot all season long and as I said two weeks ago it’s time to bring up Josh Satin who leads the organization with a 1.10 OPS and platoon him at first. Ruben Tejada hasn’t cut it defensively or offensively and yet somehow he frequently finds himself batting leadoff.

This team has gaping holes everywhere. Today on MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone provided a glimmer of hope:

“A Zack Wheeler and a Travis d’Arnaud there, an Ike Davis hot streak there, and things can turn around quick.”

I don’t see that changing the climate in Flushing. The Mets were at their worst last season when Davis got hot, Wheeler can’t seem to find the strike zone in Vegas, and D’Arnaud has missed nearly the first month of the season on the DL.

Yesterday on Twitter, I posted this message:

Mets won’t do anything to draw negative attention before All Star Game. I think Collins will be chopped after that if things don’t improve.

— Mets Merized Online (@MetsMerized) April 28, 2013

I put much of the blame on yesterday’s loss on Terry Collins. His decision to remove Niese when he did was a terrible one, and the worst part was what he said afterward:

“I knew they were going to put Howard in,” Collins said. “Scott Atchison‘s breaking ball is really difficult to hit. I don’t care who it is.”

He knew Mets killer Ryan Howard would come in and yet he proceeded as Scott Atchison is the second coming of Dennis Eckersley.

He also replaced Juan Lagares with Collin Cowgill and as one reader pointed out, that Howard two-run double probably would have been caught with the speedier and more agile rookie who Collins himself said was better than Matt den Dekker defensively.

Is it too early to call for Collins’ head?

Probably, but while we can fix the bullpen, the outfield, the infield or the backend of the rotation, you can’t fix stupid. As I said, the Mets won’t do anything now with the All Star game closing in at Citi Field, but there’s a reason why Sandy Alderson opted to let Terry Collins go into this season without an extension and as a lame duck manager.

Is it time for some Wally Ball at Citi Field?

While it is conjecture Wright might have done something to aggravate his condition, the question can’t help be asked. Seriously, is winning a game in April worth losing Wright for a period of time? That’s the perception today and considering the Mets’ history in handling injuries, it is warranted.

The Mets played fast and loose with injuries to Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, Pedro Martinez, Johan Santana and Wright in the past several times only to have it come back to bite them. Perhaps I am being an alarmist, but following the Mets does that to a person.

“I would say it’s better now than it was when I woke up this morning, which is a good thing,’’ Wright told reporters in Miami after the Mets’ 15-inning loss to the Marlins. “So I think the treatment that I got on it during the day helped and was beneficial. I’ll wake up tomorrow and see how it feels. I’d like to play as soon as possible, so we’ll see.’’

That the Mets used Wright when they didn’t have to only indicates the panic mode the team – and manager Terry Collins? – must be in with their losing streak now at five.

The Mets’ heretofore lousy bullpen blew two leads last night. Sure, it is semantics to say Shaun Marcum is a reliever, but he was used in that role. First Bobby Parnell, who had been the Mets’ only reliable reliever, and then Marcum.

Blame the pen if you want, but the Mets went 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position and stranded 26 runners.

Compounding matters, the Mets not only wasted numerous opportunities to win the game, but squandered a Matt Harvey outing, one in which he threw 121 pitches to boot.

The Mets can’t afford to waste games pitched by Harvey and Jon Niese, but that’s what they’ve done the last two times through the rotation with them, winning only Harvey’s no-decision last Wednesday against the Dodgers.

While not as bad as it was for a month stretch last summer, the Mets’ offense is in tatters.

* Ike Davis struck out three more times last night and is on pace to fan 196 times this season. That’s more than once a game. He has more strikeouts (29) than walks (12) and hits (13) combined, and there are no signs of him breaking out of his funk.

* Speaking of funks, after hitting over .300 for most of April, Daniel Murphy is on a 5-for-31 slide (.161 average with only one walk in that span).

* Wright’s on-base percentage is up, but needs to produce more than two homers and 19 RBI.

* Overall, the Mets have scored just ten runs in their last five games, and on the season have scored four or fewer runs in 13 of 25 games. They are averaging 8.5 strikeouts per game.

Thoughts from Joe D.

I guess a five game losing streak is a great time to clear the air. If not now, then when? Is it too early? Sure it’s early. but what does that have to do with some of the bad decisions we’ve been getting recently from Terry Collins? Is there a stat that shows Collins is a better strategist in July than he is in April? Do managers have slumps like players? Or are they just good or God Awful? Excuse me for going with the latter in Terry’s case. Sorry, Skip…

To begin, I think the concept of of bringing in a defensive replacement is lost on him. He substituted Collin Cowgill for Juan Lagares on Sunday and then got burned when Cowgill got a late break, a bad read, and watched a Ryan Howard shot sail over his head for a two-run double. He went with Cowgill again last night against the Marlins and left the better defender Lagares on the bench. On cue, Cowgill misplayed another flyball that translated into a Marlins win come-from-behind win.

And what’s the fascination with career utility outfielder Mike Baxter who has now made defensive miscues in three consecutive games?

Does he know that that the goal of a defensive replacement is to put in the player best equipped to bump your defense and not one who does the complete opposite?

Is someone telling him he HAS to play Cowgill and Baxter? Is it a clause written into their contracts? Because I don’t quite get the fascination – especially for Cowgill. He should be the next outfielder the team cuts and has no use to this team at all - offensively and defensively.

Yesterday, I blasted Collins for how he mishandles the bullpen, is too quick with the hook on starting pitching and then has the nerve to complain about them not going deep during his press conference. Both Jon Niese and Shaun Marcum admitted they wanted to stay in the game and had plenty left in the tank.

This is what happens when you’re a lame duck manager. It’s like trying to get work done while your boss looks over your shoulder. You make more mistakes, you slip up in areas you were once good at, you lose focus. Collins used to have a defender in me, but he looks like a dead man walking to me now.

Boy, I’ll tell ya… Karma? It’s a bitch…

The Philadelphia Phillies beat the Mets 5-1 this afternoon at Citi Field to complete the sweep and send the Mets reeling to their fourth loss in a row.

Jon Niese was the hard luck loser despite a solid performance from the Mets’ southpaw. He gave the the team more than they could have hoped for, but was let down by defensive miscues, a terrible decision by Terry Collins, and a forgettable outing by reliever Scott Atchison.

Niese was cruising through 6.2 innings and locked in a 1-1 pitching duel with Phillies starter Cole Hamels. After getting two quick outs in the seventh, Laynce Nix hit a foul popup that should have been the third out. But catcher John Buck dropped it for an error and Nix responded a single to ignite a rally.

After another single, Collins decides to bring the right-hander Atchison in. That prompted the dangerous Ryan Howard to come out as pinch-hitter and he immediately drove a two-run double to the wall to put the Phillies up 3-1. Chase Utley followed with another single to score Howard and that pretty much sealed the deal for a Philadelphia win.

It was an awful decision by Collins who should have known that Charlie Manuel would send up Ryan Howard to pinch-hit with a right-hander on the mound. Niese deserved a better fate and should have been allowed to get out of the inning himself after a hard-fought, well-pitched game to that point. Brandon Lyon allowed the fifth Phillies run to score in the eighth.

Offensively, the Mets fired blanks aside from Ruben Tejada who doubled twice and had two of the Mets’ three hits on the day. Ike Davis went 0-for-3 and is now batting .169. Lucas Duda continues to slump and after another hitless game his average is now down to .250. Marlon Byrd also took the collar and saw his average fall to .235 for the season.

In addition to the Buck error, the Mets committed two other errors in the first inning, including one by David Wright who saw his record errorless streak for third baseman come to an end at 77 games.

The Mets hit the road and open a three-game series with the Miami Marlins tomorrow night at 7:10 PM. Matt Harvey will face off against rookie phenom Jose Fernandez. It should be a good one. Maybe not. Oh hell, I don’t know… Harvey’s pitching, just watch!

The New York Mets were shutout by the Philadelphia Phillies 4-0 tonight at Citi Field. Phillies starter Kyle Kendrick hurled a complete game gem, limiting the revamped Mets lineup to just three hits and a walk.

For the Mets, Dillon Gee was matching zeroes with Kendrick for five innings and actually did a nice job of keeping the Phillies off the board until the dreaded sixth inning when it all fell apart for him. Gee was torched for four runs with the big blast coming off the bat of Ryan Howard who rocketed a three-run homer into the night. Howard owns Gee who now falls to 1-4 on the season with a 5.96 ERA.

The bullpen delivered three scoreless innings, two from Jeurys Familia and a surprisingly clean 1-2-3- ninth from Josh Edgin which was very good to see.

Offensively for the Mets? There was none. Ironically, Terry Collins juggled the lineup before the game and batted David Wright clean-up believing it would lead to more runs. (Hey Terry, your team is already ranked number one in the NL in runs per game.)

But there was no beating Kendrick on this night. The Mets flailed at his pitches and were completely powerless against him.

The Mets (10-11) now fall one game under .500 for the first time this season. Tomorrow, Shaun Marcum will be activated from the DL and make his Mets debut.

Have at it…

At the start of the season, the Mets were desperate for starting pitching. R.A. Dickey was traded, which turned out good for the Mets since he is getting rocked in the American League. Johan Santana is out for the season with another injury. What else is new? So what would the Mets do now? Would the ace of their staff really be Jon Niese, who has won 37 big league games in his career or would somebody else step up?

Cue Matt Harvey.

At first, all the hype was unbearable. Tuning into WFAN 660 AM, the Mets fans were in their glory after his first start. “He’s the next Tom Seaver!” and “ By the end of the year, he will be the best pitcher in New York!” and “Cy Young contender!”

Really? After one start, come on. The media, along with the fans were building this kid up, so I had to check him out for myself.

I tuned into the game when he started against the Phillies. I figured against a good lineup, and pitching in a hitters ballpark like Citizens Bank Park, we will see what this kid is really made of. It didn’t take long for me to realize that this kid is legitimate.

With an impressive four pitch repertoire of a fastball, curveball, slider and changeup, he mowed down the Phillies hitters one by one. Recording an impressive nine strikeouts in seven innings while only surrendering three hits and one run, Harvey dominated the Phillies.

One particular pitch that opened my eyes to Harvey’s outstanding ability was a pitch he struck out Ryan Howard on. High heat. Even though Ryan Howard is a proven power hitter, Harvey was not afraid to challenge him with his fastball. In a full count, Harvey blew a 98 mph fastball straight by Howard towards the end of the game.

As Harvey was coming off the mound, it looked like he was saying something in his head, something like, “Yeah, get used to that because I’m here to stay.”

At 24 years of age, Matt Harvey, in his first three starts, has put together Cy Young numbers:

22.0 Innings, six hits, two earned runs, six walks, 25 strikeouts, 0.82 ERA, 0.55 WHIP

I don’t care if you’re a 10 year veteran or a rookie, those numbers are impressive.

But can he sustain this success throughout the season? From watching him pitch, I see no reason why he cannot continue to pitch at this level for this season and seasons to come. Barring his health of course; sorry for jinxing it Mets fans.

His mechanics are impeccable, he is not afraid to challenge hitters, his command is flawless and he certainly has the pitches to compliment all of his other intangibles. The mid 80s to low 90s tight slider, the 12-6 curve that drops off the table in an instant, the low 80s changeup that moves away from hitters and a ridiculous high 90s fastball that cuts in on and away from hitters puts this Harvey ahead of his class.

For now, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for the Mets’ future. Harvey, with his Cy Young type stuff, could easily be an ace for this organization for a very long time. Let’s just hope he does not fall into the Mets jinx like Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana and many other Mets before him.

Go visit the GrandstandGazette.com for more great sports content.

This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader, Christian Fazzini. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 12 thousand Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

KEEP YOUR FRIENDS CLOSE AND YOUR ENEMIES CLOSER!

Team News and Notes

Atlanta Braves (6-1)

The Braves currently sit in first place in the NL East, and new addition Justin Upton is a major reason why. The 25-year-old has batted .423/.448/1.192 to start the season, with six bombs and eight RBI. The other half of the Upton brothers, B.J., has struggled to hit himself out of a barn batting just .120 to date. On the mound, the wily veteran Tim Hudson is back to work with a record of 1-0, and a 3.27 ERA to start the year. Paul Maholm hasn’t given up a run in 12 2/3 innings, and Mike Minor was solid in his first start as well, while youngster Julio Teheran struggled.   

Washington Nationals (4-2)

Bryce Harper was the story during the opening week as he belted three home runs, including two on Opening Day. Stephen Strasburg fired seven shutout innings on Opening Day, but got roughed up for six earned runs in his second start. Gio Gonzalez, Ross Detwiler, and Jordan Zimmerman all went six innings in their starts and allowed just one earned run combined. 

Philadelphia Phillies (2-5)

Opening Day starter Cole Hamels got pounded over his first two starts of the season, giving up an astounding 13 earned runs over his 10 innings of work. Conversely, Cliff Lee twirled an eight inning gem, allowing just two hits and striking out eight in his first start. Ryan Howard has started out slow, batting .148 with 10 punch-outs in just 27 at-bats. Chase Utley, on the other hand has burst out of the gate on fire. The second baseman is batting .370/.400/.630, with one home run, seven RBI and two doubles. Lastly, are we seeing the beginning of the end for Roy Halladay? The righty has seen a drop in his velocity, and has an unsightly ERA of 14.73 over his first two starts of 2013. 

Miami Marlins (1-6)

The Marlins have stumbled out of the gate, and did not score a run until the second inning of their third game of the season. Giancarlo Stanton has struggled with little support around him, and is batting .174/.367/.261 with no home runs or RBI, and just one run scored. Jose Fernandez made his debut against the Mets on Sunday, and dazzled for the first five innings, striking out eight, but received a no-decision.

Injury Report

Nationals: Adam LaRoche is currently day-to-day with a stiff back. Reliever Christian Garcia is on the DL with partial tear in his forearm tendon.

Braves: Jonny Venters (elbow) was shut down for four weeks on April 2, and may be out for the first two months. Brandon Beachy (Tommy John surgery) and Brian McCann (offseason shoulder surgery) were placed on the DL on March 29, both retroactive to March 22.  McCann may start a possible rehab assignment by mid-April, and could be activated by late April, while Beachy could return by midseason. Freddie Freeman was placed on the DL with a strained oblique on April 7, and may need 2-3 weeks to recover.

Phillies: Delmon Young (ankle) played the outfield for the first time this spring on April 1, with the hope that he returns sometime in May.

Marlins: Casey Kotchman was placed on the DL, retroactive to April 4, with a strained hamstring. Logan Morrison is currently on the 60-day DL, as he recovers from a torn patella tendon that required surgery last September. Henderson Alvarez and Nathan Eovaldi are both on the DL with right shoulder inflammation. Alvarez has resumed a throwing program, and could return by early May, while Eovaldi is out indefinitely.

Upcoming Schedules (4/8-4/14) 

Nationals: (CWS, 4/9-4/11), (ATL, 4/12-4/14)

Braves: (@FLA, 4/8-4/10), (@WSH, 4/12-4/14)

Phillies: (NYM, 4/8-4/10), (@MIA, 4/12-4/14)

Marlins: (ATL, 4/8-4-10) (PHI, 4/12-4/14)

Suspensions

Carlos Ruiz: The Phillies backstop will continue to serve his 25-game suspension to start the season.

Is Justin Upton the heir apparent to Chipper “Larry” Jones?

Ryan Howard is not the player he used to be.

The Mets begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at Citizens Bank Park, their first road series of the year and their first against a decent team.

Tha Phillies are currently at a crossroads. Where health and age meet talent. The Phillies are getting older, and this may be their last year to make a run at the World Series, although it’s very unlikely. The Phillies went 81-81 last season, spending half the year without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They have both back this year, but neither is the same player they used to be. Howard struck out in a career-high 33.9% of his plate appearances, while batting just .219. 57.1% of the balls he hit last year were ground balls. That’s significantly higher than his 39.4% career average, and a bad sign for a slugger. Utley has been slowly losing his power. His Isolated Slugging Percentage (ISO) was just .173 last season, compared to a .213 career average. A healthy spring training does not necessarily mean a better year for those two either, as they are both another year older and another year slower.

The pitching staff isn’t looking much better, either. After losing Joe Blanton and Vance Worley, the Phillies’ once-great rotation is lacking depth. And although it appears Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are as good as ever, Roy Halladay is showing signs of age. He had a 4.49 ERA in 25 starts last year, and hasn’t looked much better this year.

While there is an outside chance the Phillies make the playoffs, it’s unlikely. They are only a shell of the group that dominated the division a few years ago, and they will only be getting worse from here as their expensive assets become less tradeable with age. Nonetheless, they are probably about on-par with the Mets right now, which will make this series a fun one to watch.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey (2012: 59.1 IP, 141 ERA+, 2.69 K/BB) vs. Roy Halladay (2012: 156.1 IP, 89 ERA+, 3.67 K/BB)

Halladay hasn’t been himself lately, struggling this spring and in his first start, in which he went 3.1 innings, allowing five runs and two home runs. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com talked to a scout about Hallday. Here is some of what he said:

“If you didn’t know it was Roy Halladay out there,” he said, “you would say, ‘This guy looks like a journeyman.’”

A journeyman. For more than a decade, that would have been the last word anyone ever would have attached to a description of Roy Halladay. But now he finds himself a few weeks from his 36th birthday with more than 33,000 pitches on the odometer. And all of a sudden, the same scout said, “he looks like a guy who doesn’t have a whole lot left in his tank.”

“I didn’t see anything alarming,” the scout went on. “Nothing where you’d say he’s doing this or doing that, and that’s what was wrong. I just think he’s thrown a lot of pitches over the years. He’s always kept himself in great shape, so it isn’t that. But you’ve only got so many throws in that arm.”

He may be right: this may be the end for Halladay

Game 2: Dillon Gee (2012: 109.2 IP, 94 ERA+,3.34 K/BB) vs. Cliff Lee (2012: 211 IP, 127 ERA+, 7.39 K/BB)

Lee was horribly unlucky last season. Despite posting a 3.16 ERA and 3.06 xFIP (first in baseball), the Phillies lost most of the games Lee started. His win-loss record from last year is completely misleading. He is still one of the best in the game, walking only 1.219 batters per nine while striking out 8.8. In his last outing, Lee tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits and striking out eight.

Game 3: Jeremy Hefner (2012: 93.2 IP, 76 ERA+, 3.44 K/BB) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2012: 159.1 IP, 103 ERA+, 2.37 K/BB)

Kendrick has proven himself to be a solid option at the back of the rotation with an occasional stint as a long man. With a career 4.7 K/9 rate, he doesn’t dominate, but he doesn’t walk too many hitters either, with a 2.61 BB/9 ratio. Kendrick allowed five runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings in his last start against Kansas City.

Series News & Notes

• Carlos Ruiz, who batted .325 with a career-high of 16 home runs is still serving a 25-game suspension for violation of Major League Baseball’s drug policy.
• The Mets have hit at least one home run in each of their first six games, the longest such stretch to open a season since New York hit a home run in six straight games to begin the 1987 campaign. That team went on to hit home runs in their first eight games.
• David Wright played his 61st consecutive game without an error yesterday, extending the franchise record for third basemen. Lenny Randle is second on the list with 54 consecutive errorless games.
• In his final start in 2012, Harvey allowed a leadoff home run to Jimmy Rollins on September 19…That was the only hit and run allowed by Harvey over seven innings as he racked up seven strikeouts in a no-decision…the Mets lost, 3-2.

The biggest hurdle preventing the Mets from finishing in third place are these guys.

The Major League Baseball season is almost under way, and you know what that means: prediction time! Alas, for Mets fans it seems like most predictions are not so favorable for our loveable Amazin’s, but pay no mind to those Negative Nancy’s. I’m here to give you some good news: the Mets are a decent team. Am I being subjective? Maybe a little, but that doesn’t mean I am wrong. I can very confidently say the Mets will not finish in last place, thanks to the always dependable Miami Marlins. However, I’m not going to stop there and say the Mets are destined for a fourth place finish. In fact, I think that by the time October rolls around and the season is over, the final standings showing will show the words “New York” next to the number 3 in the National League East. Not only that, but I think we will see their record being closer to the .500 mark than many are expecting. Here are a few reasons why:

1. The Phillies are old and declining

Everybody in the baseball world seems to have made it a foregone conclusion that the Phillies will finish in third place, being closer to the Braves and the Nationals than the Mets and the Marlins. I really don’t see it. I will acknowledge that Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are two of the best pitchers in baseball, and Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers of this era. However, Halladay is up there in age (he’ll be 36 in May) and dealt with injuries last year. Even when he was pitching, he wasn’t too impressive. His velocity has dropped significantly this spring and it makes me wonder if he may not be that great anymore. Behind him, the Phillies have Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan. I’m pretty sure that combination is not going to produce many W’s.

On the flip side, let’s look at the Phillies biggest offensive threats:

Chase Utley – 34 years old, 83 games played in 2012.

Ryan Howard – 33 years old, 71 games played in 2012 producing a -1 WAR. (Fangraphs)

Jimmy Rollins – 34 years old, OPS the last three years: .694 (2010), .736 (2011), .743 (2012).

Then we get into the bats surrounding them and you realize there’s not much there either. For all the talk of how horrendous the Mets outfield is, the Phillies doesn’t look much better. Dominic Brown may have potential, and he had a great spring, but until he proves he can do it throughout 162 meaningful games, he’s still a question mark. Ben Revere can catch the ball and run like the wind, but he has 0 career home runs in over 1,000 at bats. Even Rey Ordonez thinks that’s pathetic. Laugh all you want about Lucas Duda, Colin Cowgill, and Marlon Byrd, but you cannot look at both outfields and tell me one has a significant advantage over the other.

2. Matt Harvey and Jon Niese

I am very appreciative of Johan Santana and everything he did for the Mets when he was healthy. News of his latest injury was very disappointing. That being said, I was not surprised at all by the news, and I don’t think it will have as much of an impact on the team as others do. I was completely prepared to have a rotation without Santana even before the news broke last night. Even if he was going to pitch this year, he is no longer the Johan Santana of old. This team has two new pitchers that are ready to anchor the rotation in Niese and Harvey. Let’s play the always popular comparison game. Here are some 2012 stats from two pitchers:

Pitcher A: 30 starts, 188 innings pitched, 6.77 K/9, 3.75 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, 2.9 WAR (Fangraphs)

Pitcher B: 30 starts, 190.1 innings pitched, 7.33 K/9, 3.80 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 2.3 WAR (Fangraphs)

“Pitcher A” is Jered Weaver, who finished third in the AL Cy Young vote. “Pitcher B” is Jon Niese.

As we enter 2013, ZiPS projects Niese to improve on last year and finish with a WAR of 3.1, while it has Harvey finishing his first full season with a WAR of 2.5. That sounds like a pretty good 1-2 combination to me.

3. Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud

I will never understand why people will harp on an Opening Day roster as if it is the definitive way to define how your team is going to look throughout the season. At some point this year, barring any injuries, you are going to see Wheeler and d’Arnaud playing for this team. Both will make the team immediately better based on the talent they have. I don’t think it’s fair to expect them to have a Mike Trout-like impact, but with the way the Mets are handling them it’s assured that neither will come up until they are ready for the big leagues.

It’s also worth noting that, currently, the Mets are significantly better at the catching position this year. According to Fangraphs, the Josh Thole-Mike Nickeas combo produced a -0.8 WAR last season and both of them are starting 2013 in AAA. That alone makes John Buck’s measly 1.0 WAR look enticing.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you the Mets are going to win the National League East, but let’s look at two facts: the Marlins are awful and the Phillies have more bad omens than good. For those reasons, among the others I just mentioned, I think it is very feasible that the Mets will finish in third place this season. That may not be the loftiest of goals, but since the advent of two wild card teams it should be enough to keep things interesting for most of the season, since shooting for third place no longer means no chance at the playoffs.

In making the final out of the Phillies’ season for the second straight year, Ryan Howard suffered an apparent Achilles injury, falling to the ground and writhing in pain as the Cardinals celebrated their unlikely division series victory.  In a worst-case scenario (torn ACL), Howard would miss nine months or more while recovering from surgery to repair the tear.  In other words, Howard’s 2012 season would be kaput.

Although Ryan Howard batted only .253 for the Phillies in 2011, he was their main power source, providing 33 HR and 116 RBI in 152 games.  For a team that plays half of its games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Howard was the only player to hit over 20 HR.  Free-agent-to-be Raul Ibañez was second on the team with exactly 20 HR and 84 RBI.  Take out Howard and the soon-to-be 40-year-old Ibañez, and no Phillie hit more than 17 HR (Shane Victorino, of all people, hit 17 bombs) or picked up more than 63 RBI (accomplished by Jimmy Rollins, another free-agent-to-be who has already gone on the record as saying he won’t accept a hometown discount to re-sign with the Phillies).

So if Howard doesn’t play in 2012 and Ibañez leaves via free agency, the Phillies’ lineup will look an awful lot like the Mets.  Even with those two players in the everyday lineup for Philadelphia in 2011, the Mets still scored more runs (718) than the Phillies (713), produced more doubles (309 to 258), triples (39 to 38), hits (1,477 to 1,409), stolen bases (130 to 96) and even led them in walks (571 to 539).  That’s right.  The Mets, who used Daniel Murphy as their cleanup hitter for 33 games, were walked 32 more times than the Phillies, who supposedly have a more fearsome lineup.

Now take Howard and Ibañez out of that lineup and what do you have left?  A declining and oft-injured second baseman in Chase Utley, an as-yet unsigned shortstop who will be 33 in November and who has a career OBP of .329 primarily out of the leadoff spot in the batting order, and a 36-year-old third baseman who produced a .277, 5 HR, 50 RBI season in 122 games played (numbers eerily similar to Justin Turner’s 2011 season). Basically, the Phillies offense will be led by Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.  I mean, catcher Carlos Ruiz led all Phillies’ starters (minimum 100 games played as a Phillie) in batting average with a .283 mark.  When your most consistent hitter over a full season is Carlos Ruiz, that says a lot about your offense.

Does anyone really think Chase Utley is going to return to his All-Star caliber form?  Utley played in 103 games in 2011 and hit .259 with 11 HR and 44 RBI.  Think about that.  Batting in the middle of that lineup and playing in that bandbox of a ballpark, Utley managed only 44 RBI in 454 plate appearances.  To put that into perspective, Daniel Murphy drove in five more runs (49) than Utley did in 31 fewer plate appearances (423).  Even Josh Thole (40 RBI) drove in more runs per plate appearance (386 PA) than Utley did in 2011.  Since 2007, when Utley hit .332, his batting average has gone down every year.  He hit .292 in 2008, .282 in 2009, .275 in 2010 and bottomed out at .259 in 2011.  The Phillies will have to deal with his declining production for the remaining two years and $30 million of his contract.

Like the rest of his teammates, Chase Utley is literally down and out.

If Jimmy Rollins doesn’t return, who will be the Phillies’ starting shortstop?  (It better not be Jose Reyes.)  Surely, they can’t entrust the position to Wilson Valdez, he of the .294 OBP in 2011?  But maybe his defense is better than Rollins.  Uh, actually it’s not.  Rollins played in 142 games and made only seven errors, while Valdez played in 99 games and committed nine errors.

Ever since Scott Rolen showed his brotherly love for Philadelphia by leaving the city in a trade in 2002, the Phillies have been searching for his replacement.  They tried David Bell from 2003-2006 and got nothing.  They employed a trio of third sackers in 2007 (Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms, Abraham Nuñez), all of whom started at least 50 games at the hot corner.  They tried Pete Happy (Pedro Feliz) for two seasons in 2008 and 2009, before finally settling on Placido Polanco in 2010.  This is the same Placido Polanco who was acquired in the Scott Rolen trade in 2002 and replaced him at third base for the remainder of that season before moving over to second base in 2003 and 2004 to accommodate David Bell.  Once Chase Utley was called up to the team, Polanco was out of a job and was traded to Detroit in 2005, where he blossomed, hitting .311 in four seasons with the Tigers.  So of course, the Phillies re-signed him prior to the 2010 season and have seen his numbers wilt.

As of right now, Hunter Pence is the only regular position player on the Phillies who isn’t north of age 30.  The pitching staff of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt might be truncated by one in 2012, as Roy Oswalt has a $16 mutual option for the 2012 season.  However, Oswalt went 9-10 for a team that won 102 games, finished the year with his second-highest ERA over a full season in his 11-year career, and spent almost two months on the disabled list.  If the Phillies think that’s worth $16 million, who am I to stop them?

Vance Worley might be able to replace Oswalt in the rotation, but is he for real?  In parts of two seasons with the Phillies, Worley is 12-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 23 starts.  But this great start wasn’t something that could have been predicted after looking at his numbers in the minor leagues.  Worley started 76 games over parts of four seasons in the minors.  In those starts, he was barely above .500, going 25-23.  His ERA was unimpressive (3.80) and his WHIP (1.25) wasn’t exactly among the league leaders.  He also wasn’t a strikeout pitcher in the minors, averaging 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.  Then he comes to the major leagues, where hitters aren’t familiar with him and he lowers his ERA by a full run, while upping his strikeout rate to 8.1 K/9 IP.  At least Cole Hamels’ major league success followed an impressive minor league career, one in which he went 14-4 with a 1.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and registered 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

You didn’t think I’d mention Cole Hamels and not show his photo, did you?

There are too many question marks surrounding the Phillies in 2012.  Their position players are getting older and piling up more injuries.  Their main source for power might miss the entire 2012 season, a season in which his new five-year, $125 million contract kicks in.  Their left side of the infield might consist of Placido Polanco and Wilson Valdez, two players in their mid-30s, who combined for six home runs and 80 RBI in 2011.  If John Mayberry (15 HR, 49 RBI in 104 games) becomes the Phillies’ main power source in 2012, their lineup won’t look very scary at all.

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee might continue to be All-Star-caliber pitchers for years to come.  Or maybe they’ll both realize that they’re entering their mid-30s and will suffer the same setbacks the other thirty-somethings on the Phillies are.  The Phillies are in more trouble than people think.  Their seasons are ending earlier year after year (World Series losers in 2009, NLCS losers in 2010, NLDS losers in 2011), and that may be a sign of things to come.

For a team like the Mets, the gap between them and the Phillies might be as wide as it’s going to get.  The Mets might not have to shorten that gap on their own.  The Phillies might be helping them do it with their multiple albatross contracts and their inevitable meeting with Father Time.  And it all began last night, when Ryan Howard’s Achilles decided to go kaplooey.  Because of it, the Phillies’ dominance in the National League might soon be going kaplooey as well.

The Mets have 53 home runs, worst in the majors.  The Phillies have 126 and the Yankees 136.  Gary Sheffield leads the team with 10 homers, and David Wright still only has 5.  FIVE. 

Speaking of Wright, while he’s batting a respectable .322, his 5 homers and 44 RBI puts him in the company of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury (5, 29), Freddy Sanchez (6, 34) or Pat Burrell (5, 32).  Those are decent players, but Wright is supposed to be more in the company of guys like Ryan Braun (16, 58) or Albert Pujols (34, 90).  In fact, Wright has similar power numbers to teammate Daniel Murphy (5, 29).  What the hell is that?

The Mets have 814 hits and 362 RBI.  The Phillies have 804 hits and 457 RBI.  Think about that….less hits, but almost 100 more runs batted in? 

The Mets have one complete game, and it’s not by Johan…it’s by Livan.  The Giants and Royals each have 8 complete games to lead the majors.  The GIANTS and ROYALS.

Mets’ pitchers have given up 361 walks, trailing only Washington (365) for worst in the majors.  And of course, their 10 balks leads the majors by far, thanks mostly to Pelfrey’s “yips.” 

The Mets could have had Raul Ibanez, who has 24 homers, 65 RBI and is batting .316 for you-know-who.  

The Phillies’ notable rookie this year is pitcher JA Happ, who is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 65 strikeouts.  The Mets’ notable rookie is F-Mart, who is batting .176 with one homer and 8 RBI. 

Amazingly, the Mets’ hitters have only struck out 501 times, which is best in the majors.  But I guess power hitters strike out more, and the Mets have almost no power, so in that context it makes sense. 

The Phillies’ top home run hitters are Ibanez (24), Ryan Howard (23), Chase Utley (21) and Jayson Werth (20).  The Mets’ top home run hitters are Sheffield (10), Carlos Beltran (8), and Wright (5).  Oh, and Jeff Francoeur also has 5, but he hit most of those with the Braves. 

I probably just made you all sick, and I’m right there with you.  I can’t wait for this season to be over so we can move on!

Quite frankly, the next month of games is going to make or break this Mets’ team, and show us all what they are made of.  I like how it started last night, with Johan absolutely fierce despite not having his best stuff.  Wright, Beltran and Church delivered homers when there had been a power drought.  And as for Johan, he ignored a bunt sign and drove in the tying run with a double down the right field line, and he also made a stunning catch of a wicked liner off the bat of Shane Victorino, doubling Eric Bruntlett off first to end the Phillies’ half of the 7^th.  He was pissed when Jerry Manuel yanked him in the 8^th—he was saying “I’m a Man!” and I could also make this out: “I’ll give you the ball, but I don’t agree with you.”  Good for him….who would want our ace to have any other attitude?

There was also a horrible call in the bottom of the sixth when Ryan Church hit a rocket that was fielded by Ryan Howard as Fernando Tatis broke for the plate (with no outs, mind you) and Howard threw him out at the plate.  But wait…..umpire Lance Barksdale blew that call about as bad as you can blow a call.  Tatis slid under the tag of catcher Carlos Ruiz, but not only that, Ruiz was bobbling the ball!  I have no idea why Tatis, nor Jerry Manuel, didn’t get in Barksdale’s face.  Even David Wright could be seen in the dugout trying to convince Manuel to do that.  Luckily, that was the same inning Santana doubled home the tying run, so it didn’t decide the game.  But still…..I’m pissed about that call, and the Mets and their fans should be too.

So Game 1 goes to the Mets, and it brought them to within two games of the Phillies.  We need at least one more win in the series to make a statement, but wouldn’t a sweep really be nice?  I won’t get greedy, and I’m just excited for more playoff-style baseball for the next month.  Let’s go Mets!