The only decent player on Miami’s roster is Giancarlo Stanton, of course, but even he has been on-and-off this season. He didn’t hit his first home run until his 18th game of the season two nights ago against the Cubs. He went on to hit two on Sunday, but his power numbers still have left much to be desired. His walk numbers and BABIP are at normal levels for Stanton, so perhaps it’s the shoulder contusion that Stanton suffered a few weeks ago which has been bringing down his production.

Overall, the Marlins are a team the Mets should handily beat. Although some cynics predicted the Mets to compete with the Marlins for last place, that seems unlikely with the way the Marlins have started the season. Hopefully the Mets will be able to use this series to get back on track.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey, RHP (35 IP, 233 ERA+, 3.90 K/BB) vs. Jose Fernandez, RHP (20 IP, 84 ERA+, 2.38 K/BB)

The Mets saw Fernandez make his big league debut against them on April 7, when he allowed one run on three hits in five innings while striking out eight. He has had one good start and two iffy ones since then. In his last start, which came against Minnesota, he gave up four runs on six hits in five innings. In his start before that, he gave up five earned in four innings against the Reds. One thing to take note of in game one of this series will be Fernandez’s pitch count. The Marlins have coddled him thus far, keeping him around 8- pitches in each of his starts.

Game 2: Jeremy Hefner, RHP (21 IP, 70 ERA+, 1.09 K/BB) vs. Kevin Slowey, RHP (29.2 IP, 155 ERA+, 3.50 K/BB)

After spending an injury-riddled 2012 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, the once top prospect Slowey got another shot with the Marlins. Slowey has been their best pitcher so far, putting up a team-best 2.43 ERA. It’s hard to say long-term whether Slowey can hold up, but he has been very good so far and keeping his walk numbers down, which he has always been known for. In his last start against the Cubs, Slowey gave up three runs in six innings while striking out six and not walking a batter.

Game 3: Dillon Gee, RHP (25.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB) vs. Wade LeBlanc, LHP (24.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB)

LeBlanc was traded to Miami for John Baker in November 2011 after four years with the Padres. LeBlanc spent last season as a starter and reliever for the Marlins, posting a 3.67 ERA in 25 games, nine of them starts. He hasn’t been as terrible as his numbers might say. His ERA is inflated from his April 15 start in which he let up seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Nationals. He has otherwise been decent. In his last start against Chicago, he gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings.

Series News & Notes

• Adeiny Hechavarria, who you might remember from the last series these two teams played, suffered a bruised elbow on April 16 and was placed on the disabled list the next day. Hechavattia went 4-for-10 in the last series against the Mets in early April.
• New York embarks on its second road trip of the year with three games in Miami and then three contests in Atlanta…The Mets will play 13 of their next 19 away from Citi Field…New York went 3-5 on its first road trip of the season…The Mets were 38-43 on the road in 2012.
• David Wright is tied for second in the majors with 19 walks and Lucas Duda is tied for fourth in the majors with 18…The Mets have drawn 87 walks, tied for the fifth-most in the majors.
• David Wright is day-to-day with a stiff neck. He will miss the first game of the series.
• The Mets have hit at least one home run in 17 of their 23 games and 25 on the year, tied for the sixth-most in the National League…The Mets have hit three grand slams to lead the majors.
• John Buck’s eight home runs tie him for the third-most by a Met during the month of April with Dave Kingman (1982), Jeff Kent (1994), Todd Hundley (1996) and Mike Piazza(2001)…Carlos Delgado (2006) and Dave Kingman (1976) hold the club record with nine home runs in the month of April.

Jose Fernandez will make the jump from A-Ball to the majors when he makes his MLB debut against the Mets on Sunday afternoon.

The Mets begin their second series of the season against the new-look Miami Marlins today, in the first game of what will be a three-game set.

The Marlins, for the second offseason in a row, blew up what they had and started over. Last winter was a little different, as the Marlins were the team adding expensive talent. Now, it’s as if they’re begging teams to take any major league caliber player off their roster. The club that had eight players with salaries of at least $5 million now has just one. Their payroll has been sliced in half, from over a hundred million to just fifty, and that’s including the money they paid to other teams to take on highly-paid players. Take that away and their payroll is under $40 million.

The only player of much worth on the Marlins roster is Giancarlo Stanton, who may end up being traded at the deadline as well this year. The 23 year-old put up unbelievable numbers, hitting 37 home runs and putting up a 5.7 WAR rating in only 123 games. He is the one and only threat left in the lineup.

Overall, if some of the newly-acquired prospects don’t pan out immediately, the Marlins could challenge the Astros for the worst record in baseball.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Jeremy Hefner (93.2 IP, 76 ERA+, 3.44 K/BB) vs. Alex Sanabia (career: 83.1 IP, 113 ERA+, 2.89 K/BB)

Sanabia was pushed out of the rotation last year, pitching in the minors for the entire year. In 18 Triple-A starts, he posted a 3.93 ERA in 91.2 innings. The 24 year-old only pitched 11 innings in the majors in 2011, and made 12 starts in 2010. He had decent success in 2010, putting up a 3.73 ERA (112 ERA+), 5.8 K/9 rate, and a 2.0 BB.9 rate. His mediocre peripherals, however, tell us that he probably isn’t anything special. Just another future journeyman.

Game 2: Jonathon Niese (2012: 190.1 IP, 113 ERA+, 3.16 K/BB) vs. Ricky Nolasco (2012: 191 IP, 88 ERA+, 2.66 K/BB)

Nolasco is currently the highest-paid player on the Miami roster at over $11 million, but nothing he has done over the past few years indicate that he has earned that salary. Nolasco signed a three-year, $26.5 million extension after the 2010 season, but has been dreadful since. In his first start against the Nationals this week, he gave up two runs on three hits while striking out five in six innings of work.

Game 3: Aaron Laffey (100.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 1.30 K/BB) vs. Jose Fernandez (2012 A/High-A: 134 IP, 1.75 ERA, 4.51 K/BB)

The Marlins are taking a huge risk with Fernandez bringing him up this early. The 20 year-old has no experience in either Double-A or Triple-A and while he had an excellent season in the minors last year, is nowhere near ready for the majors. This has David Clyde written all over it. Fernandez, a righty, was listed as the fifth best prospect in baseball by Baseball America and 7th by MLB.com.

Series News & Notes

• Marlins outfielder Logan Morrison is recovering from knee surgery and was put on the 60-day DL on March 22. He hit .230/.308/.399 with 11 home runs and 15 doubles in 93 games last season.
• Nathan Eovaldi, acquired in the Hanley Ramirez trade last season, is on the DL with shoulder inflammation. He was a top 100 prospect before last season, when he posted a 4.30 ERA with dismal walk and strikeout rates.
• Casey Kotchman is on the disabled list as well with a hamstring injury. He batted .229/.280/.333 in 142 games with Cleveland last season.
• Just looking at fWAR, the players the Marlins lost this winter were worth 18.5 wins last year while their additions totaled just 3.6 wins. Keep in mind this was a 69-win team with those players on the roster for most of the season.

The Mets, who lost 11 of 18 games against Florida last season, are so far 4-8 against them this season, including losses in Puerto Rico the past two nights.  In the standings, the Mets are 1.5 games back of Atlanta and leading the NL wild card race, and they are 6 games ahead of the Marlins, who are 37-40 on the season.  But for some reason, we just don’t match up well against these guys.

There is talent on the Florida roster, but not the kind of talent that should be dominating our Mets.  Cody Ross, who is batting .295 this year, is batting .413 against the Mets with a .652 slugging percentage.  Against the Phillies, Ross is batting .143.  Jorge Cantu, who is hitting a mediocre .265, has feasted on Mets’ pitching for a few years now, and is batting .304 against them this year.  By comparison he’s hitting .219 against the Phillies.  Ricky Nolasco is 7-6 with a 4.84 ERA this season, but 2-0 with a 3.96 against the Mets.

I haven’t exactly dove in to figure the rest of the teams’ stats against the Mets, but it’s not pretty, at least from our side of the ledger.  And this ineptitude against the Marlins can’t keep happening if the Mets want to reach the postseason this year.

First of all, the Phillies are not exactly going to be worse…they have won the division three straight seasons and have been to the World Series twice.  They will more than likely have Cliff Lee for a full season and most of the other starters returning.

The Marlins are no slouches.  They are an exciting young team led by a trio of very good pitchers in Josh Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez.  The Marlins won almost 90 games in 2009.

The Braves, who were right there behind the Marlins with 86 wins this past season, also appear to have bolstered their team with the addition of ex-Met Billy Wagner and also of former Dodgers’ closer Takashi Saito.

Then there are the Nationals.  Yeah, I know, these guys lost 103 games in 2009.  They had a decent lineup with good pop, but a putrid pitching staff that could never hold a lead when the Nationals got one.  Still, there is hope here, starting with top draft pick Stephen Strasburg.  You know, the guy who throws 100 mph.

The Mets finished 70-92 this past season, 16 games back of the third-place Braves and only (gasp) 11 games ahead of the Nationals.  If Minaya intends to fix this team with band-aids as it appears he will, a .500 season would be about the best we could hope for.  Another 70-win season is more likely, and don’t think the Nationals won’t be in that same range in 2010.

Can Omar do something to give us more optimism?  Time will tell, but I’m not holding out much hope.