Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire of USA Today

Following star closer Edwin Díaz’s devastating patellar tendon injury at the World Baseball Classic, the Mets are in a predicament regarding their closer situation for the 2023 season. They have a couple of viable in-house options with prior closing experience in Adam Ottavino and David Robertson, but they could use a true replacement from outside the organization to fill his role and supplement the bullpen.

The free agent market has run dry at this point in the offseason, so the Mets best option is likely to pivot and explore their options via trade. With that, let’s take a look at five potential closers the Mets should target on the trade market.

Alexis Díaz, CIN

What better way for the Mets to replace Edwin Díaz then with his brother?

Alexis Díaz burst onto the scene as a rookie for the Reds last season, putting up a 1.84 ERA and 1.0 fWAR to go with 10 saves in 59 appearances. He recorded spectacular strikeout numbers along the way, finishing the season with 11.73 K/9. The flamethrowing righty did a fantastic job of limiting hard contact as well, adding to an overall profile and repertoire that is eerily similar to his big brothers’. His control is a bit of a concern as he allowed 4.66 walks per nine, but otherwise Díaz has the makings of an elite closer for years to come.

The main issue regarding Díaz as a trade target for the Mets is price. He is still in pre-arbitration and is under team control through the 2027 season, meaning the Reds have no incentive to give him up without an overpay. The Mets have been reluctant to part with their top prospects under Billy Eppler, but SNY’s Andy Martino has stated in the past that the team inquired about him at last year’s trade deadline. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll double back, but it would make all the sense in the world and would be a natural fit.

Scott Barlow, KC

Scott Barlow has quietly emerged as one of the league’s better relievers over the past two seasons. Since the start of the 2021 campaign, Barlow has appeared in 140 games for the Royals and recorded a 2.30 ERA, 3.13 FIP and 10.20 K/9 to go with a 3.0 fWAR and 40 saves. Barlow is also a master of limiting hard contact and getting hitters to chase, which is a product of a lethal one-two punch with his slider and curveball.

Barlow has two years left before he hits free agency and is one of the more logical trade candidates out there. Rumors have swirled about a potential deal this offseason, but his value may still be a bit too high and it’s likely that the Royals hold on to him until closer to the deadline. Regardless, Barlow is a good fit for the backend of the Mets bullpen and is some worth inquiring about as soon as possible.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Daniel Bard, COL

Daniel Bard’s story is one of the best in baseball, as he was a key part of the Red Sox’s bullpen in the early 2010s before battling with the yips and retiring in 2017 after bouncing around the minors with a number of organizations. He then came back in 2020 with the Rockies and has essentially held down the fort as their closer ever since.

In 2022, he appeared in 57 games and recorded 34 saves while putting up a 1.79 ERA and 1.8 fWAR. The 37-year-old is among the league’s hardest throwers and consistently induces weak contact while primarily working with his slider and sinker, both of which are plus pitches.

Bard looked likely to be moved at last year’s deadline as perhaps the best reliever available before the Rockies shockingly locked him up with a two-year, $19 million extension. That shouldn’t prevent him from being on the market this year though, and his contract situation may even work in the Mets’ favor if they were to show interest in a deal.

David Bednar, PIT

Acquired in the Joe Musgrove trade, David Bednar returned to his hometown and has been lights-out ever since. In his two years as a Pirate, Bednar has appeared in 106 games and pitched to a 2.40 ERA and 2.57 FIP all while striking out 11.7 batters per nine. The 2022 All-Star, unlike the other pitchers on the list so far, is prone to giving up hard contact but has three dependable pitches and puts hitters away at an impeccable rate while exhibiting great control.

Bednar’s name has unsurprisingly popped up in trade discussions over the last few years as the Pirates continue to rebuild. It would take a haul of epic proportions to acquire him with four years of control left, but the Mets should at least look into it as he is one of the best relievers in the game today.

Kyle Finnegan, WSH

Kyle Finnegan’s name doesn’t typically come up in discussions of the top relievers available on the trade market, but there’s little doubt that he will become a hot commodity as the season inches closer to the deadline. Finnegan became the Nationals’ full-time closer last season after Tanner Rainey went down due to Tommy John Surgery and finished the year with a 3.51 ERA, 0.6 fWAR and 11 saves in 66 games.

Finnegan heavily relies on his sinker, as he throws it 78.8% of the time while averaging 97.0 MPH on it. His velocity is both a gift and a curse, as he has good strikeout numbers but gives up a ton of quality contact and is susceptible to the long ball. He does generate a good amount of ground balls as a sinker-baller though, and his control improved immensely from his previous two seasons in 2022.

Finnegan is a rock-solid bullpen option that likely wouldn’t cost a fortune despite having three years of control left. Interdivision trades are always needlessly complicated, but Finnegan may be worth trying for regardless as an intriguing late-inning option with an encouraging track record.

The post Potential Trade Targets to Replace Edwin Díaz appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

The Mets were fully aware that their starting pitching depth was going to be tested this season. They had hoped, though, that it wouldn’t be quite this soon.

With the news about José Quintana‘s surgery for a stress fracture in his rib, the Mets will now be down a starter until at least July. While not ideal for the team, it presents a golden opportunity for one of the Mets’ younger depth starters to earn a more prominent role in the rotation. David Peterson and Tylor Megill, both contributors to the team in 2022, will use the remaining few weeks of spring training to vie for that slot.

Now, manager Buck Showalter did say that the team will likely begin the season with a six-man rotation. The primary reason is to ease Kodai Senga into pitching in the U.S., as he threw only once a week in Japan. Another reason, though, could be to get an extended look at both Peterson and Megill for if and when the team reverts back to a five-man rotation.

Both players will use spring training and whatever early starts they receive to make their case for the spot. However, each one has a prior major league resumé that can provide context for the more suitable everyday starter. There are also some changes to keep in mind which could sway the decision in one direction or the other.

Pitching Arsenal 

According to Baseball Savant, both Peterson and Megill relied on five pitches in 2022, although with different usage rates. The two share the basic four-seam fastball, slider, changeup, and curveball. Peterson throws a sinker, while Megill has a cutter.

Last season, Peterson used his four-seamer 37.9% of the time, slider 29.1%, changeup 16.3%, sinker 11.7%, and curveball 5%. Interestingly, from 2020-22, while his rates of slider, changeup, and curveball use have remained roughly stable, he made some more radical changes with his four-seamer and sinker, inverting them from 2020-21 before switching back in 2022.

In terms of Run Value, Peterson’s best pitch when he is right is his slider. He yielded -6 RV on the pitch in his rookie year, tied with his four-seamer for his best RV, and then gave up -5 in 2022, which was his best pitch result. Unsurprisingly, the slider was the pitch that went bad in Peterson’s difficult 2021 season, as he gave up 5 RV on the pitch with 24.4% usage.

Peterson’s sinker and changeup seem to be consistent minus pitches for him, as he has yielded positive RV in each of his three seasons on both of those pitches. The worst result was 6 RV on his sinker in 2022 with just 11.7% usage.

One of Peterson’s difficulties is that the spin rate on his fastball and curveball are very low by league standards. His fastball spin was in the 15th percentile among pitchers in 2022, and has been almost exactly that through his three-year career. His 2022 curveball was in the 27th percentile in spin rate.

Meanwhile, Megill uses his four-seamer a lot more often than Peterson, hurling it 56.9% of the time in 2022. He complemented the heater with 20.1% slider usage, 18.3% on his changeup, 2.8% on a curveball, and 1.9% on a cutter. His usage rates have been virtually identical in his parts of two seasons with the Mets.

Megill’s changeup has been a minus pitch for him, as thus far, he has yielded 5 and 3 RV on it in his two seasons in the league. His four-seamer and slider have been his best pitches, yielding RV between of -1 or -2 each year.

Megill also doesn’t have great fastball spin, ranking in the 30th and 33rd percentile over two seasons. (He did not throw enough curveballs to qualify for spin rate ranking.)

One very important thing to note about Megill is a dip in fastball speed this spring. He averaged 95.7 mph on his four-seamer in 2022 but it is down to 93.5 mph so far. This is a conscious effort to conserve his energy and be able to pitch deeper into games. Through nine starts in 2022, Megill made it through the sixth inning just twice. Furthermore, Megill believes that his 1.1-mph increase in average fastball velocity from 2021 to 2022 might have caused his shoulder strain last year, increasing the wisdom of slowing it down a bit.

Max Scherzer is also having an impact on Megill. The ace has proselytized far and wide about the benefits of a curveball for right-handed pitchers, dating back to last spring when he encouraged Jacob deGrom to develop the pitch. Scherzer likes throwing a curve to left-handed batters to steal a free strike, and he has also talked to Megill about saving his best pitches for later in the game.

As a result, Megill threw a curveball on 9% of his pitches in his most recent spring outing after having used it just 2.8% of the time last year. He said that he’s been working on developing it and thinks it will help him in the top of the zone. The work he put in is noticeable in his results: a 63-inch vertical break on the pitch, up from an average of 53 inches in 2022 (which was 2% more than the average break on similar pitches).

From an analytical perspective (and common sense), there is a push for pitchers to throw their best pitch more often, regardless of what type of pitch it is. It appears that Megill has gotten the memo, while Peterson could use it.

Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Sabermetrics

Based on an overall body of work in 2022, Peterson had a more successful season than Megill. The lefty put up a 3.83 ERA, 3.94 xERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, and 1.4 WAR in 105.2 innings pitched. His FIP was 6% better than pitchers when adjusted for park and batters faced, and his ERA was just about average in that context. His 27.8% strikeout rate was in the 79th percentile for pitchers, but his 10.4% walk rate was in the 13th percentile.

Megill’s sample size was smaller than Peterson’s, and a lot of it came in relief at the end of the year. In 47.1 innings pitched, Megill had a 5.13 ERA, 4.31 xERA, 3.77 FIP, 3.35 xFIP, and 0.6 WAR. Although Megill’s ERA was 36% worse than league average when adjusted for context, his FIP was 3% better than average, which is roughly in line with Peterson’s. His 25.5% strikeout rate was not quite as good as Peterson’s but still above the 22.1% average, and his walk rate was better than the 8.1% average at 6.5%.

When you dive deeper into the rate numbers, though, you find two pitchers who give up a significant amount of hard contact. Although Peterson’s xSLG was in the 61st percentile, his hard hit rate (21st), average exit velocity (18th), and barrel rate (41st) explain why his BABIP was worse than average at .313.

Megill, too, was quite a bit worse than league average in barrel rate (10.1% vs. 6.7%), launch angle (13.5% vs. 12.1%), sweet spot rate (36.3% vs. 33%), and average exit velocity (89.2 vs. 88.4). His BABIP was .305. Surprisingly, his hard-hit rate was slightly better than league average at 34.8% (vs. 35.8%).

When it comes to home runs, though, there was a large discrepancy. Peterson allowed 0.94 HR/9 last season, while Megill’s number was very high at 1.33. This is in part due to the three homers Megill allowed on just 145 changeups thrown.

Mets Defensive Fit

Right now, the Mets’ outfield is stronger defensively than their infield. Though the double-play pair of Francisco Lindor and Jeff McNeil is among the strongest in baseball, Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar (or Brett Baty) leave much to be desired defensively, combining for -14 OAA in 2022. Furthermore, the Mets were among the leaders in defensive shifts last season, making the ban possibly affect their infield defense more than other teams.

Perhaps this points to an advantage for Megill over Peterson, as the latter profiles as more of a fly ball/line drive pitcher than average, while the former leans toward groundball/line drive. In 2022, Megill’s groundball/flyball/line drive rates were 42.2%/28.1%/23.0%, compared to Peterson’s 49.8%/17.9%/27.1%; the league averages are 44.9%/23.1%/25.0%.

However, at the cavernous Citi Field, there is more room for bad things to happen on fly balls and line drives. Flyball pitchers get some help in the home run department at Citi, but they also can get hurt by barreled balls. Both of these pitchers gave up more barrels than average, but Peterson’s average launch angle was significantly lower than Megill’s (8.1 vs. 13.5).

Other Factors

As stated earlier, Megill is trying to add to his pitch arsenal and keep his velocity controlled to pitch deeper into games. Peterson has had a similar problem; he finished the sixth inning in only four of his 19 starts last season and often averaged close to or more than 20 pitches per inning. This is mainly due to his high walk rate.

However, there is one pivotal difference between the two pitchers: Peterson did not injure his arm when trying to stretch out as a starter. Megill’s lower velocity has profiled well so far this offseason, but it also may take something off his four-seamer. Peterson, meanwhile, averaged 93.7 mph on his fastball in 2022 (just about the league average) and produced his results with that speed.

If Megill can use the curveball successfully and save his best stuff for last, he may have more potential as a pitcher than Peterson. We saw some of the possibilities early in 2022 when he went 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA in April. However, there are question marks following his injuries.

Another factor to keep in mind is handedness. Quintana was set to be the lone southpaw in the Mets’ rotation, and he allowed a .219/.286/.271/.557 to lefties last season. The lefty Peterson had a line of .177/.263/.377/.640 against left-handed batters, while Megill was at .293/.343/.495/.838 against lefties (he actually faced more left-handed batters than right-handers). The Mets may want to maintain that platoon advantage in their rotation.

So far in spring training, both pitchers have performed well. Peterson pitched four scoreless innings in his latest outing and has yet to allow a run, pitching to an impressive 0.50 WHIP. Megill also hasn’t allowed a run and went four scoreless in his last performance.

Photo by Ed Delany of MetsmerizedOnline

Bottom Line

Both pitchers struggled down the stretch last season: Peterson in his final cameos as a reliever/starter, and Megill in his return from injury as a reliever. Both have questions about durability, reproducibility of positive results given the amount of hard contact made against them, and “stuff.”

I don’t know if there’s a clear right or wrong answer to who should start. Peterson strikes out somewhat more batters than Megill, but Megill keeps his walk rate lower. Both pitchers get hit hard at times, though Peterson’s contact tends to come on the ground more often than Megill’s. Megill gave up more homers than Peterson.

Ultimately, if I had to choose one, I’d go with the former first-round pick who has two solid seasons under his belt. Peterson did everything the Mets asked of him last season and did not complain even when they shuttled him back and forth between the minors, majors, and bullpen. He pitched really well for most of 2022 and held down the fort when the team’s aces were injured.

Is Peterson going to be a star? No. But he deserves the chance to show what he can do with some consistency and time to refine his craft at the major league level. Megill will undoubtedly get opportunities throughout the season, regardless.

With a lack of complete clarity in the data, the more consistent pitcher wins, and that’s Peterson.

The post Mets’ Fifth Starter Battle Is About Potential Vs. Production appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized

When the Mets signed John Curtiss last season, they took a low-risk approach to gaining cheap and effective production out of the bullpen in 2023 as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time.

Curtiss, who will turn 30 in April, is set to earn $775,000 this season as the Mets picked up his team option during the offseason. He has played for a number of teams in his career that include: the Twins, Angels, Rays, Marlins, and Brewers.

Most notably, Curtiss found success with the Rays in the shortened 2020 season, in which he posted a 1.80 ERA with 25 strikeouts in as many innings while accumulating a WHIP of 0.960. Consequently, he picked up right where he left off with Miami the following season, in which he had an ERA of 2.48 and a WHIP of 1.075 in 40 innings with 40 strikeouts.

However, things quickly went south for Curtiss when he joined the Brewers as part of a mid-season trade. He only pitched 4.1 innings for the club as he received his Tommy John surgery diagnosis shortly after.

As is the case with many athletes, the road to recovery for Curtiss was a very formative experience for his life and career. Since he had a lot of free time on his hands, he was able to pick up a new hobby and add a new pitch to his repertoire in the process. In fact, according to an article by Abbey Mastracco of New York Daily News, Curtiss became infatuated with Formula 1, which is a popular international auto-racing sport. More importantly, Curtiss learned how to throw a changeup as he was not allowed to throw any breaking balls while rehabbing. He worked meticulously with Mets rehab pitching coach Dakota Herman on developing one since he had no other options at the time. Consequently, it will be interesting to see if this new pitch will be useful for Curtiss this upcoming season.

Up to this point in spring training, Curtiss has logged a series of 1-2-3 outings in which he has struck out 3. While the sample size is small, Curtiss has looked sharp with the signs pointing in the right direction. As a result, he is certainly making a case to be a part of the bullpen on opening day.  While he has only pitched 86.2 innings in MLB, his recent trends in the right direction show that he can be a formidable middle relief option that has the potential to grow into a more meaningful role as he gains more experience.

The post Examining the Potential Impact of John Curtiss in the Mets’ Bullpen appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Note, article one of this series, published earlier today, can be read here.

It has been a busy off-season for the New York Mets who have already ensured the payroll close to $350 million in 2023. However, as mentioned in article one of this series, a vital need still remains. That being the need to address the lack of power in the lineup.

If you missed what was outlined in article one, despite finishing fifth in runs scored in 2022, the Mets tied for 15th in MLB with just 171 home runs. Further, they also ranked low in a number of important power metrics.

So, given the Mets need for power, and their already inflated payroll, what are some potentially cost-effective options the Mets can explore?

Note, coincidently enough, a report came out today explaining that the Mets are not prioritizing power this off-season. Which is interesting given their lack thereof last season. 

Brandon Belt

For teams wanting to inject a true thumper into the middle of their lineup, they should probably give Brandon Belt a call at some point this winter. The veteran slugger has built his career on hitting, as he boasts an OPS+ of 123 and a .356 OBP across his 12 seasons in the majors. All of which were spent with the San Francisco Giants.

Granted, 2022 was a rough one for Belt. The left-handed hitter was hampered by injuries all year long as he played just 78 games before seeing his season ended by knee surgery. Ultimately, Belt slashed just .213/.326/.350 with eight home runs and 23 RBI. It was the worst hitting year of the veteran’s career.

Belt will turn 35 years old not long after Opening Day in 2023 and some may worry that he’s on the decline given his tough year in 2022. However, he is just a year removed from crushing 29 home runs in 325 at-bats in 2021 and he could be a weapon for the Mets in different ways in 2023.

Specifically, potentially being a part of a platoon at designated hitter (DH), filling in at first base when Pete Alonso needs a rest, or pinch hitting late in games. Regardless, Belt could be very effective if used in the right way and there’s no reason why he can’t reach double figures in homers if he can remain healthy.

Fangraphs’ crowd-sourced projections list a one-year deal worth around $10 million for Belt. For someone who has hit 15-or-more home runs in six season, he would bring a much-needed thump to the Mets’ lineup. Further, he is a respected presence in the clubhouse and a proven winner with two World Series rings.

Nelson Cruz 

Despite being 42 years old with a sparkling 18-year career in the majors already under his belt, Nelson Cruz has made it crystal clear that he intends on playing during the 2023 MLB season. The righty bat recently had eye surgery after dealing with inflammation in his left eye for more than a year. That may have had something to do with why Cruz endured the worst season of his lengthy career in 2022, hitting just .234/.313/.337 with 10 home runs in 507 plate appearances.

However, there is no doubt that the seven-time All-Star can still play a key role for a contender in the right role. Just as Albert Pujols did with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022, Cruz could provide a decent level of production from the DH spot and just be relied upon to provide some pop from the bottom half of the lineup.

Granted, his best baseball is probably behind him but he would add a wealth of experience to the clubhouse and he did hit 32 home runs as recently as 2021. There’s no reason why he can’t hit between 15-20 homers in 2023 and act as a mentor to the likes of Francisco Álvarez, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos.

Cruz should command less than $10 million per season, as he looks for one more shot at a World Series title. This could be a very low-risk move for the Mets who are looking for some veteran pop.

Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Adam Duvall

Adam Duvall is similar to Cruz and Belt in that he has built his career as a slugger that can hit for power, but he suffered a down year in 2022 due to injury. The 34-year-old hit just .213/.276/.401 (.677 OPS) with 12 homers and 36 RBI in 2022 before left-wrist surgery cost him almost all of the second half of the season.

However, when healthy, Duvall is a highly-effective slugger and he crushed a career-high 38 homers with a league-leading 113 RBI for the Marlins and Braves in 2021. That is only a year ago which proves that the veteran can still mash at a very high level and provide some big time pop.

An excellent defender that can make flashy plays with the glove, Duvall was on pace for 20 home runs before injury cut short his season in 2022. He’s primed for a bounce-back campaign in 2023 and he would offer Mets’ manager Buck Showalter some flexibility in that he can play solid defense in the outfield if needed.

However, due to his ability to hit absolute bombs, Duvall could be a better option as a designated hitter in a platoon role with Daniel Vogelbach. He would come cheap too given he’s projected to earn just $6.9 million in 2023, per Spotrac.com. He could be the perfect answer to the Mets’ lack of power in the lineup.

Again, part one of this short two-article series that was published earlier today can be found here. 

The post Potential External Cost Effective Power-Hitting Options For 2023 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

After the news of Jacob deGrom signing a five-year deal with the Texas Rangers on Friday night, several are now curious as to how the Mets are going to address their rotation. Well, even before the deGrom news, it was no secret that the Mets had some rebuilding to do in hopes to improve their starting rotation. This all due to deGrom, Chris Bassitt, and Taijuan Walker becoming free agents, subsequently leaving at least two gaping holes.

Well, one of the names New York has seemingly been tied to most this off-season is not a pitcher in the upper echelon of names, but one that would bring nice stability to the middle of the rotation. That being former Pittsburgh Pirates’ hurler Jameson Taillon. The Mets were first rumored on Taillon a few weeks ago, and after the deGrom deal, as recently as Saturday by several in the industry.

Worth prefacing, an acquisition of a pitcher of Taillon’s level would not stop the Mets from acquiring a pitcher from the upper echelon of the market. As SNY reported on Friday night, the Mets are expected to sign/acquire two starting pitchers. One top-tier starter and one from he mid-level Taillon tier.

Why Would Taillon Be A Fit? 

Taillon is your prototypical middle-of-the-rotation pitcher. His numbers throughout his career has always resembled such. Throughout the 31-year-old’s six-year career, his ERA has been no lower than 3.20 but no higher than 4.44. Meanwhile, his FIP has no lower than 3.46 and no higher than 4.43. He has been the definition of consistency throughout his career.

Taillon’s stuff maxes out at around 94 MPH. Similar to potentially former Mets’ pitcher Chris Bassitt, he builds his game upon consistently blending six different pitches. Last season, he threw his four-seam fastball 35.7% of the time. Meanwhile, the other five pitches he threw at a rate between 8.5% and 18.8% of the time. His game is built on keeping opposing hitters guessing on what is coming. This explains why the rate at which opponents chase Taillon’s pitches has been in the league’s 60th percentile or better every season he has been in the major leagues.

Further to his style of pitching, Taillon is not exactly a strikeout inducer. His strikeout rate in his career has fluttered in the low 20% range to even the high teens. This figure has usually ranked slightly below the league’s 50th percentile. On the other sides of things, Taillon does not walk batters. His walk rate last year was the second lowest of his career and ranked all the way in the league’s 94th percentile. This has been a theme in his career.

Overall, throughout his career, Taillon has consistently shown himself to be an effective third-or-fourth starter in any rotation. He relies on a plethora of different pitches to invoke chasing and, at his best, soft contact. He does not blow hitters away, but is effective enough to turn in value equivalent to a strong middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Potential Concerns 

There are two main concerns surrounding the right-handed Florida native. These being Taillon’s struggles with injuries throughout his career, and the likelihood that the contract he receives does not exactly match up with his true value as a third-or-fourth slotted pitcher.

Taillon missed both the 2014 and 2015 seasons with surgeries, one of which was Tommy John. Then, in 2017, he had to be shut down as he was treated for testicular cancer. Thankfully, Taillon was back and fully healthy for a full 2018 season before injury unfortunately struck again in 2019. He had surgery to address a forearm issue and to make revisions on his UCL which was repaired during his Tommy John surgery back in 2014. His recovery knocked him out for the duration of the 2020 season as well.

The past two seasons with the Yankees, Taillon has been relatively healthy throwing 144 1/3 innings and 177 1/3 innings. In evaluating whether or not a long-term deal should be extended to Taillon, this should certainly be taken into consideration.

The big question surrounding Taillon is how much he is going to get paid. All of the reports have referenced that he is going to be in for a huge payday. And given how the starting pitcher market has been trending, this appears all but certain. How much, realistically, should you be paying for a middle-of-the-rotation reliever?

Fangraphs has Taillon projected at a three-year, $36-million deal. Meanwhile, MLB Trade Rumors is projecting a four-years, $56-million contract. The $14 million a season deal is more likely, and given the market, it would not be surprising to see a figure surpass that projection.

For comparison’s sake, Carlos Carrasco, one of the Mets’ projected current middle-of-the-rotation pitchers, is scheduled to make $14 million this upcoming season. This appears to be a very fair price for Carrasco, especially when you take in account a buy out worth $3 million essentially making him worth $11 million. Expect Taillon’s number to surpass this figure, comfortably.

Final Thoughts

As he been described in detail above, no doubt the 31-year-old Taillon can serve as an effective middle-of-the-rotation piece. He, when healthy, has shown to be very consistent, and given his age, would not be a one-or-two year-and-done type of player. He would be a fixture, unless due to injury, for years to come.

Though, there is some concern. The deal Taillon is bound to receive will likely automatically be perceived as an overpay due to market conditions. Though, that is the risk you take when you have to address a very desolate rotation in the off-season. Though, even at the potential price, he would still be a better option than say guys like Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Corey Kluber, Tylor Megill, etc.

Let’s say the Mets do convert on what was reported by SNY above and sign two pitchers. One in the upper-echelon tier, and one on the Taillon level. This is what New York’s rotation can look like next season:

1. Max Scherzer
2. Carlos Rodon / Justin Verlander
3. Jameson Taillon
4. Carlos Carrasco
5. David Peterson

Of course, there are several other pitchers available on the market. Regardless, it will certainly be interesting to see what direction general manager Billy Eppler and his staff take.

The post Further Examining Jameson Taillon’s Potential Fit With The Mets appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Updated Post – Nov. 17, 13:10 PM ET

Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred spoke to reporters on Thursday with one topic being the investigation into whether or not the Yankees and Mets colluded to drive down the price of free agent outfielder Aaron Judge. Manfred acknowledged that the league is conducting an investigation.

“I’m absolutely confident the clubs behaved in a way that was consistent with the (CBA) agreement. This was based on a newspaper report. We will put ourselves in a position to demonstrate credibly to the MLBPA that this is not an issue. I’m sure that’s going to be the outcome,” Manfred said.

Original Post – Nov. 17, 10:30 AM ET

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Major League Baseball is investigating whether conversations between the New York Mets and New York Yankees happened regarding free agent Aaron Judge that would be considered a violation baseball’s collective bargaining agreement.

MLB is looking into the potential issue following an article published by SNY earlier this month that the Mets wouldn’t get into a bidding war over the superstar. “Mets sources said that they did not plan to fight the Yankees this offseason for Judge”, Andy Martino wrote about the Mets not wanting to bid against the Yankees for Judge.

The report caught the attention of the MLB Players Association which led to them asking the Commissioner’s Office to investigate. “Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war”, Martino wrote later in the article.

Recent CBAs specifically prohibit the sharing of information on player contracts, saying, “Players shall not act in concert with other Players and Clubs shall not act in concert with other Clubs.”

Rosenthal goes on to report that the league is expected to request the phone, text, and email records between Cohen and Steinbrenner. If the union files a grievance over the situation with the Mets and Yankees, an arbitrator will determine whether collusion occurred.

Looking at recent instances where there were reports of collusion takes you to 2006 when the owners agreed to pay the players $12 million as part of the CBA. That came from complaints by the players that the owners engaged in collusion in 2002 and 2003. In 2007, the players raised concerns again that the owners colluded to drive down the contract for free agent Alex Rodriguez.

The Mets have been essentially linked to every big-time free agent since Steve Cohen bought the team in 2020, but they haven’t been reported to show series interest in Judge.

The post Manfred: Doesn’t Believe Mets, Yankees Are Colluding appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Needing to add production from the DH spot in the lineup at the trade deadline, the Mets acquired Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf to platoon in the position. Neither player had been overly dominant in 2022, but both players had strong numbers against pitchers of the opposite hand. The Mets saw the opportunity to possibly get the production of one big bat at a low cost by platooning the two hitters.

As we all know now, the platoon did not go how the Mets had hoped. Despite a strong start, Vogelbach cooled off in August and September. He did start hitting again over the season’s last two weeks, but it was not enough to prevent the Mets’ collective struggles down the stretch. Ruf, on the other hand, never got going in New York. He hit just .152 in 66 at-bats and failed to hit a single home run despite his track record of slugging against left-handed pitching.

With the offseason and free agency approaching, the Mets can fill that hole in the lineup for 2023 with just money instead of prospect capital. Have to note first that Darin Ruf is under contract for the 2023 season and the Mets have a cheap $1.5 million option on Vogelbach. In alphabetical order, here are some potential DH options the Mets could consider for 2023.

José Abreu

According to Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, the White Sox are expected to move on from José Abreu. The first baseman has been one of the game’s best hitters since arriving from Cuba in 2014. In nine seasons, he has hit .292/.354/.506 with 243 home runs while playing in at least 145 games in all but one season (not including all 60 in 2020.) In 2022, Abreu hit .304/.378/.446, but hit a career-low 15 home runs. Despite only hitting half of his 2021 home run total, he still had a very productive offensive season.

Abreu could be a fit for the Mets for several reasons. As a first baseman, he could fill on for Pete Alonso on days that Alonso is the DH. He also fits their offensive approach. Abreu hits for a high average and on-base percentage, which was how the Mets managed to be one of the league’s top offenses despite not hitting for much power. Abreu could add some power to the lineup while also contributing to what the team collectively does so well.

On top of his approach at the plate meshing well with the Mets’ approach, Abreu would also make sense for the Mets due to his ability to hit both right-handed and left-handed pitching. He has hit .288/.347/.494 against right-handers and .305/.377/.548 against left-handers in his career. After how 2022 played out, the Mets could certainly use a DH who they could rely on to be in the lineup every day.

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Josh Bell

The Mets were interested in trading for Josh Bell at the trade deadline, and now that the switch-hitting first baseman is entering free agency, it would be surprising if the Mets did not at least consider making a push for the former National.

Bell struggled after being traded to the San Diego Padres at the trade deadline, but he was amid a career year while playing in the National League East. In 103 games in Washington in 2022, Bell hit .301/.384/.493 with 14 home runs.

Bell is another player who fits with the Mets for several reasons. He has a career .351 on-base percentage, and he has proven to be a strong hitter from both sides of the plate. He had a .816 OPS against left-handers in 2022 despite that being his weaker side throughout his career. His career OPS against right-handers is .827, so when Bell is at his best, he can be the middle-of-the-order bat the Mets need regardless of what side of the plate he is hitting from.

Credit: Andy Marlin, USA TODAY

Brandon Drury

One option for the DH spot is a former Met who broke out in 2022. Brandon Drury had a career year this past season, and his defensive versatility would give the Mets plenty of options to keep him in the lineup when anybody needs a day off.

Drury had a productive year with the Mets in 2021, but he took his offense to another level this season with the Reds and Padres, hitting .263/.320/.492 with 28 home runs in 138 games. Drury had always profiled as more of a platoon hitter, but his added power made him a quality hitter against right-handers while still crushing left-handed pitching.

The Mets’ offense surely could use some more home run power in 2023. Pursuing a player who has already played in New York and hit more home runs than every Met not named Alonso in 2022 could help the offense take a step forward next season.

J.D. Martinez

Like Bell, the Mets were linked to J.D. Martinez at the trade deadline, so he should also be on their radar this winter.

Martinez profiles similarly to Abreu, a well-rounded veteran right-handed hitter who can be relied on to play against right-handed or left-handed pitching. He hit .274/.341/.448 with 16 home runs in 139 games in 2022. His splits are a little more skewed towards hitting left-handers than Abreu’s, but Martinez is by no means a weak hitter against right-handers. He hit .319/.401/.597 against southpaws while hitting .261/.323/.406 in same-side matchups in 2022.

While Martinez has a long track record as one of the league’s best all-around hitters, his struggles in the second half of the 2022 season could make potential suitors think again about pursuing the veteran DH. He hit just .233/.301/.400 after the All-Star break. Martinez certainly has the talent to bounce back from his tough second half, but at his age, extended slumps like that may be a bit harder to ignore.

These four provide possible fits for the Mets in 2023, but they are far from the only candidates. Trey Mancini has a mutual option with the Astros, but with his playing time limited, free agency could be on the horizon for the veteran hitter. Justin Turner is also another former Met third baseman who will be entering free agency this winter, and Mitch Haniger will be a free agent for the first time in his career.

Who would you like to see as the Mets’ DH in 2023? Comment below if you would like to see the Mets pursue one of these free-agent hitters or if you think there is another player available that would be a fit for this team.

The post Mets Potential DH Targets For 2023 appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

With just three games remaining in the regular season and the Mets trailing the Braves by 1.5 games, the Mets are all but certain to be playing in the Wild Card round (unless the Mets are able to sweep the Nationals and the Marlins beat the Braves in the next two games). Their path to a World Series is not as clear as it was when a division title looked likely, but with the talent in their rotation, the Mets are capable of making noise in the postseason no matter who they play.

Given an appearance in the Wild Card game is the most likely scenario, here’s how the Mets’ rotation could potentially line up for the postseason.

Wild Card Game 1: Jacob deGrom

Although the series didn’t go as planned, the Mets made it clear how they prefer to lineup their pitching staff with how they lined up in Atlanta. To nobody’s surprise, Jacob deGrom should be taking the mound for the Mets’ first postseason game in six years.

Wild Card Game 2: Max Scherzer

When the Mets signed Max Scherzer to the record setting three-year deal, the focus was immediately on how big it would be for the Mets to throw him and deGrom back-to-back in a postseason series. Since returning to the National League with the Nationals in 2015, Scherzer has pitched to a 2.73 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 66 postseason innings.

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Wild Card Game 3: Chris Bassitt

Should the Mets reach a decisive third game in the Wild Card round, Chris Bassitt should be the Mets’ starter. When the Mets acquired Bassitt prior to the start of the season, it gave them a trio at the top of their rotation that can compete with anyone. Bassitt has made two postseason starts in his career, allowing four runs over 11 innings in the 2020 postseason.

NLDS Game 1: Taijuan Walker

If the Mets win the first two games of the Wild Card round, Bassitt would be the first choice to start the first game of the NLDS. If that series goes three games, the best option to start the division series is Taijuan Walker. Since joining the Mets, Walker has faced the Dodgers four times and has given them a chance to win in all four games. In those starts, Walker has a 3.80 ERA and 19 strikeouts over 23 2/3 innings. The Mets could also opt to give the ball to deGrom on four days rest since the division series starts on Tuesday, but if they want to give their co-aces a full five days of rest, Walker gives them the best shot in Game 1.

NLDS Game 2: Jacob deGrom

With the Wild Card round starting on Friday and Game 2 of the NLDS being scheduled for Wednesday, deGrom would be in line to make the start for the Mets on regular rest. Getting swept in Atlanta made their path much more difficult, but the Mets are fortunate that they can still get their top arms lined up by Game 2. It has been seven years since deGrom pitched for the Mets in a postseason game, but the Mets’ ace has already proven he is capable of handling the bright lights of Dodger Stadium in October.

NLDS Game 3: Max Scherzer

With a travel day scheduled for the teams to fly to New York, Scherzer would be pitching with an extra day of rest in Game 3. Scherzer experienced a “dead arm” during his postseason run with the Dodgers last season that he believed was a result of pushing his limits after easing his way into the postseason with his pitch counts in the regular season. The added day of rest could be beneficial for the future Hall of Famer.

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

NLDS Game 4: Chris Bassitt

Depending on where the Mets stand in the series after three games, it would not be out of the question for Bassitt to start Game 4 regardless of who pitched in Game 1. With the travel day, the Game 1 starter would still be pitching on four days of rest in Game 4. If the Mets’ season was on the line, it would not come as a surprise to see them turn to Bassitt due to his stronger track record. Bassitt has faced the Dodgers twice in 2022, pitching to a 3.75 ERA over two six-inning starts. Walker could be an option to start Game 4 if he is not the Game 1 starter, but Bassitt should be the most likely choice.

NLDS Game 5: Jacob deGrom

If the Mets are faced with a do-or-die game in Los Angeles, there is nobody better prepared for it than deGrom. While the Dodgers have certainly improved since their last Game 5 match-up with deGrom in 2015, deGrom has as well. Despite being on four days of rest, there is nobody who should get the ball over the best pitcher in baseball in a winner-take-all game.

Morale for the fanbase understandably took a hit after the tough series in Atlanta, but the talent in the Mets’ rotation is more than enough to turn it around quickly once the postseason starts on Friday. It is certainly a tougher task having to get through a Wild Card series then play the Dodgers, but if there is a team with a pitching staff that can handle it, it’s the Mets.

The post Projecting the Mets’ Potential Playoff Rotation Through Two Rounds appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

Good Morning, Mets fans!

On Tuesday evening, the New York Mets fell 4-1 to the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. The Mets are now 21-26, 2.5 games back of the third-place Phillies, and 6.5 games back of the first-place Atlanta Braves. After the game, Brandon Nimmo admitted that “everyone is a little down right now, as I think is appropriate.”

On Wednesday, the Mets will be facing off against the Phillies once again at Citizens Bank Park as ace Jacob deGrom (4-1, 1.67 ERA) will take the mound against a pitcher that has yet to be announced.

The game is set to begin at 7:05 PM EST, will be televised on SNY and ESPN, and can be heard on WCBS 880 AM. Let’s go Mets!

Latest Mets News

Major League Baseball announced that superstar Pete Alonso is featured in an episode of T-Mobile’s Beyond the Bases.

Latest MLB News

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed to a bubble for the MLB playoffs. Rosenthal later added that families would be allowed to be part of the bubble.

The Texas Rangers announced that they have signed infielder Andrew Romine to a minor league contract.

According to Christ Cotillo of Masslive.com the Red Sox have released Jonathan Lucroy.

According to Brian McTaggart of MLB, Carlos Correa suffered a bone bruise but thankfully, nothing was broken.

Latest NL East News

The Phillies announced that they have designated infielder Ronald Torreyes for assignment.

Latest On MMO

Marshall Field believes that commissioner Manfred and baseball fans alike see great potential in Steve Cohen.

Thomas Hall thinks that J.D. Davis should revert back to his 2019 launch angle.

Rich Mancuso feels that time will tell for Steve Cohen.

On This Day In Mets History

Birthdays: Chris Carter turns 38, Desi Relaford turns 47 and Orel Hershiser turns 62.

2007: David Wright, homering in the seventh inning of a 10-6 loss to Philadelphia at Shea Stadium, becomes the 30th member of the 30-30 club.

Let’s go Mets!

The post Morning Briefing: Mets Starting To Lose Hope appeared first on Metsmerized Online.

The New York Mets are getting closer to being eliminated from contention with each passing day. Every loss digs the hole that much deeper, with this talented team quickly running out of time to find their way into October.

Last night, the season was quite literally hanging in the balance.

After getting another poor outing from their starting pitcher, the Amazin’s lineup clawed their way back into the game against the Baltimore Orioles. Then in the sixth inning, it seemed like another contest was about to slip through the Mets fingers as the Orioles loaded the bases for Rio Ruiz.

Ruiz turned on an inside sinker from Justin Wilson and scolded it with an exit velocity of 99.2 mph directly over the head of Michael Conforto. With desperation, Conforto closed in on the line drive that traveled 372 feet and made a leaping catch on the warning track, using every inch of his glove before gently landing against the fence.

This is was the type of momentum-changing play that can turn a season around. A play that provided a breath of fresh air for a team that was running out of oxygen. And it came from the Mets most valuable player this season.

Now a few home runs from Conforto’s young teammates ultimately sealed the 7-6 victory, but if not for his outstanding effort in right field, New York would have most definitely endured their third-straight loss and gone into their off-day on another sour note.

The 27-year-old outfielder has garnered many new nicknames with his play this year, as broadcaster Keith Hernandez has dubbed him “Iron Mike” for playing everyday, while Pete Alonso revealed him as “Silky Elk” after the game.

Whatever you want to call him, Conforto is in the midst of another career-year, living up to the potential that everyone envisioned for him when he starred on a World Series team in his rookie year back in 2015.

At that time, Conforto was considered the heir apparent to David Wright. The next perennial All-Star that could lead the Mets into the next decade. Conforto would reach that level in 2017, becoming a first-time All-Star after enduring a sophomore slump in 2016. Unfortunately his season was cut short due to a dislocated shoulder, which greatly impacted him the following year as well.

Then in 2019, Conforto quietly put together a career-year, setting new highs in hits, home runs, doubles, RBI, runs scored, and stolen bases. Yet despite his elite production, there were new young All-Stars in Queens and the right fielder to a backseat to the monster seasons of Alonso and Jeff McNeil.

But now in his sixth big league season, there is no way to ignore Conforto, as he shows the superstar potential that everyone knew was there in 2015.

Conforto is currently third in the National League in both batting average (.340) and on-base percentage (.428). His 55 hits are the second-most in the NL behind Trea Turner (60) and his .990 OPS ranks ninth in the league.

Even more impressive, Conforto has a 168 wRC+ according to Fangraphs. This makes him the seventh-most productive hitter in the MLB based on that statistic (Dominic Smith is actually sixth with a 171 wRC+).

By averaging Conforto’s statistics over a 650 plate appearances, he would be on pace to score 120 runs, with 221 hits, 32 home runs, 48 doubles and 108 RBI. With his current 1.6 fWAR, Conforto is essentially performing at the level of a 6-WAR player over a full 162-game season.

After being forced to play out of position at times in center field during his career, Conforto has finally become the Mets everyday right fielder and is showing to be an elite defender in the corner. Between the leaping catches, his cannon of an arm and his consistent offensive production, Conforto has is now a premier right fielder in this league.

While he may not match the production of a player like Mookie Betts, Conforto has certainly reached the upper-echelon at his position and should remain in that class moving forward. Now that he is only one year away from free agency, there is likely a nine-figure contract heading Conforto’s way in the near-future.

With all that being said, the first order of business for new team owner Steve Cohen should be to reach into those deep pockets and extend Conforto to remain with the Mets for a very long time.

The post Michael Conforto’s Ascent to Superstardom appeared first on Metsmerized Online.