It has since become known as the “Marshmallow Experiment.” In 1960, Stamford Professor Walter Mischel, wanted to find out whether delayed gratification, having to wait before attaining a satisfying outcome, was healthy for people. Mischel devised a study to find out.

Mischel brought together a group of young children in a test study. Each child was taken into a room where they were presented with a marshmallow. The youngsters were told they could eat the marshmallow whenever they wanted. They were also told if they waited without eating the marshmallow they would be rewarded with a second marshmallow treat.

Mischel left the room and didn’t return for 15 minutes. The children were taped. Some gobbled their marshmallow almost before Mischel could get out the door. Others waiting in agony fighting off the temptation to consume their prize wanting a second marshmallow.

In a testimony to his ability to delay gratification, Mischel, studied the youngsters for years after the experiment recording data about different facets of their lives. The results were astonishing. In almost every category, the youngsters who were capable of delaying the need to instantly consume their marshmallow outperformed those who could not. Those who showed an early ability to delay gratification had fewer behavior problems, lower stress, developed stronger friendships and social networks, and performed better academically, including SAT results.

Yale researches have also studied the topic concluding that people demonstrating delayed gratification provided more stimulation to a particular part of the brain. The Yale researchers proved a link between intelligence and delayed gratification and self-control.

This should be great news for Mets fans. Over the last three seasons, Met fans have received a more than healthy opportunity to test our delayed gratification capabilities. For many of us, that means around the corner, sometime in the future when the Mets return to respectability, we should have less of a likelihood to get into trouble, experience less stress, stop whining and complaining and maintain more friends, and, by heavens, we’re already smarter.

In his Sunday “Shooting from the LIP” column, New York Daily News sportswriter Mike Lupica signaled the days of delayed gratification for Met fans could soon be over. Lupica claims the reality for Met fans is that a three-year Sandy Alderson Cleanup, like the end of the cleanup in the Gulf of Mexico after BP, is ending. I like Lupica’s analogy but advise caution. The negative effects of the BP spill are still being felt in the Gulf.

Not to be outdone, Mark Hale of the New York Post wrote that Alderson, when meeting with season’s ticket holders, had unveiled a six-month plan. Alderson’s message to Met fans: the team will soon be adding substantial pieces to the roster and the need for patience (delayed gratification) is almost over. “I believe in the next six months or so, we’ll be in the position to make some significant acquisitions, either by free agency or trade,” Sandy told the big spending Met faithful.

There has been a lot of discussion over the last six months about Sandy Alderson’s plan to bring the Mets back to baseball respectability. I’ve always believe the Met General Manager has had a plan and that the plan would someday prove positive. I still maintain the faith.

Having said that I wish Sandy would use concise and exact language to outline the key points of his plan for Met fans. I think in some ways his meeting with the season ticket holders was a start. Still, I’m looking for an Improvement Plan Brief sent directly to fans, maybe through MetsMerized. It might be a four-point plan, a five-point plan, whatever, with each point explained simply, perhaps like this.

The Sandy Alderson Improvement Plan

Point 1 – Revamp and improve the minor league system.

Point 2 – Use the draft and an upgrade scouting and player development system to stockpile young talent, especially strong pitching arms, to build a infrastructure for future success.

Point 3 – Cleanup the roster bringing salary spending within affordable parameters while shedding unproductive salary costs.

Point 4 – Evaluate current roster and minor league prospects closest to playing in Flushing to determine the viability of a future role with the organization.

Point 5 – Strategically add substantial pieces to the roster to fill greatest priority needs.

A clear and precise list of points or indicators making up the foundation of the plan could then be evaluated more fairly. Has Alderson revamped the Mets minor league system? That would be a point of fair debate. I believe the answer is an overwhelming yes, and I feel there is good evidence to support that claim. The fact the Met minor league teams have winning records at every level this season might be one indicator. Minor league evaluations by different baseball research groups showing huge leaps in progress for the Met minor leagues might be another.

The same process can be used to evaluate each point of Alderson’s plan. Remember, this is MY summary of the points I believe are included in the Met Improvement Plan. I’m wishing the Mets would provide fans specified points and their own evaluation.

By the way, point five of my example, adding substantial roster pieces through trade or free agency was recently marketed by Sandy as something new that will occur over the next six months. For the past two years, I’ve considered it part of the plan. It only makes sense that when the Santana and Bay salary commitments concluded a cash strapped franchise desperately needing roster upgrades will seek trades and free agent acquisitions at strategic positions to improve baseball results.

The tough pill to swallow is the enormity of that task. At the conclusion of last season you could make a decent argument that Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis, and maybe Lucas Duda could be seriously considered as future roster pieces. At the moment, those assumptions would seriously challenged.

Forged and fortified by years of delayed gratification and bolstered by an Improvement Plan, Met fans are ready to rock. Even though we don’t feel smarter, are certainly not less stressed, and might be having trouble maintaining friendships, our patience is wearing thin. Come on, Front Office, how about specifying your Improvement Plan with some simple clarifying points we could then evaluate, up or down, and gauge the progress you’re making and the likelihood the Mets could be winning at least half their games next season.

This morning at Citi Field, Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins, and a few of the players, participated in a Q&A session with season ticket holders. We have John Delcos there and will file a full report later, but here’s a quick summary for you to chew on until then.

• Alderson said that he believes the team has reached the stage where he can begin to add veteran major league talent to the roster now. He expects to add some players in the next six months.
• Alderson cited that with some of the organization’s top young prospects either here already or coming soon, that now is the time to start filling in the gaps with seasoned major league talent.
• “What I’d like to be able to do is maybe acquire a player or two who will not only be with us this year but into the future,” Alderson said. “That makes sense and is consistent with what we’ve been trying to do longer term. We’re going to keep working at it and I’m sure you’ll see some different faces between now and say the end of July or the All-Star break.”
• Alderson described this new strategy as a shift in organizational planning, and they intend to seriously pursue major league talent from outside the organization within the next six months, and that fans should expect to see some new faces between now and the All Star break
• “I do believe that over the next six months or so we will be in position to make some significant acquisitions, whether it’s through free agency or trade,” Alderson said. “We’re certainly looking forward to that possibility.”
• Alderson said that while there will larger amounts of money on hand to to invest in these veterans for the short-term, and acknowledged that the team has not gotten the return they wanted on money invested in players in recent years.
• “When I got here,” Alderson said, “I always understood that I was looking at some of these contracts, from which we were either going to get production, or simply have to wait for them to expire. Now we’re in a time frame where in another half-season, because the players didn’t perform for various reasons (injury to Santana, total ineptness from Bay), those contracts will expire.
• “Listen: The reality of our situation is that we owe Bay and Johan a total of around $52 million, out of a payroll of about $107 million. One of them is hurt and one of them is gone. But we’re still paying them. When you take away that money, you are talking about a payroll that is in the bottom three or four. For now. That’s not an excuse, that’s the fact of our situation.”
• Alderson wants to build a team that fans will be happy and proud of and urges just a little bit more patience.
• “We’re working at it, The problem is, at some point, the best thing you can do is have a little patience and unfortunately I’ve been preaching that for two-and-a-half years and it’s wearing thin. But we’re almost there.”
• “All I care about is happy Mets fans,” Alderson said Saturday morning, on his way to talk to season-ticket holders, whoever they are at this point. “That is my motive in life. And I know that’s not happening right now. And if they’re unhappy, believe me, I am even more unhappy.”
• Wilmer Flores could be promoted to the Mets at any time. (Unless Valdespin turns it around quickly, he will be the player that is replaced. – Joe D.)
• Sandy has no say in whether Gary Carter’s number should be retired, but if it were up to him his number would be on the wall next to Seaver, Casey, Hodges, Shea and Robinson.

(Photo by Mets)

A little more than two & a half years ago, you took over as the GM of this rollercoaster franchise. With the team coming off back to back sub .500 seasons which had been littered with failed expectations, injuries and disappointments prior to your arrival, most of us are generally aware – and were back then too – that you inherited a challenging situation: A rather high payroll that didn´t perform like one, a farm system that wasn´t exactly loaded with high upside & major league ready talent, and a difficult financial situation influenced by various factors outside of your control, certainly didn´t give you & your assistants a great starting point.

I understand that a few difficult decisions had to be made in the meantime with the “greater good” of the franchise‘s long term in mind – both in terms of finances and roster construction. Even if they certainly hurt the quality of the team in the shorter term.

Scott Boras stated that these apparent financial restrictions forced you to go shopping in the “fruit & nuts” section of the “supermarket” instead of the expensive “meats” section. Regardless of whether it´s even a good idea to invest a lot of money in expensive meat or veteran high profile free agents, sometimes even “fruit & nuts” appeared a bit generous and actually it seemed you mostly had to plod through the waste bin behind the supermarket, searching for disposed assets beyond their date of expiration for virtually no cost.

In spite of these mostly inevitable measures, you never ever mentioned the “R”(rebuilding) word to the fan base. Maybe this happened in an effort to keep fans motivated to come to the park and / or watch games on TV and thus help to avoid the franchise losing even further revenue. Instead you decided to refuse to acknowledge that any season was going to be “punted” while stressing how much the focus supposedly is (or was in terms of 2011 and 2012) on competing in that respective season. Even if most measures – like stockpiling prospects and draft picks, holding them back a bit longer in the minors to get them better prepared for a hopefully long & productive major league career, trading or letting go quality veteran players, avoiding any sort of financial risks in free agency and spending very little on shorter term veteran replacements – clearly pointed in that “R”-word direction. Whether it came out of financial necessity or Baseball necessity or both.

While I understand that you can´t go out and say “we´re going to be terrible because we´re rebuilding – please come back in a couple of years”, I believe it´s important and the right time to get us fans back into the “boat” and make us “believers” (again ?). Maybe it´s time to share at least part of “The Plan” you apparently shared with David Wright in depth. You don´t have to lay out in detail which players you´ll target. But more in general how you expect the next Mets contender to look like and when you expect that team to be in place.

In retrospect there´s no way around it and no denying that we are currently right in the middle a major “REBUILDING” process – and already have been for a couple of years. And I believe we´re all grownup enough to hear the truth.

Especially since patience is not only wearing thin with your critics (they didn´t have it in the first place anyway) but also with those who were generally supportive of that idea but are now asking for leadership as we´re watching mediocre Baseball at best for yet another season.

However, please be more specific of your plan going forward. And please don´t try to sell intriguing pickups from the waiver wire as the supposed remedy for the Mets´ woes. Because while I´m sure you mean well and believe there´s some upside left in the Rick Ankiels, Marlon Byrds or Jeremy Hefners of the world, it does somewhat insult the intelligence of the “believers” and at the same time reinforces the skepticism of the critics who can rightfully point out that supposed “Moneyball” pickups have largely failed to make up for the loss of several star caliber players and the quality of the major league roster has gradually deteriorated. Which shouldn´t come as much of a surprise to anyone as there´s usually a good reason why such players are generally available for next to nothing in terms of Baseball economics. And while I´m sure you hoped for a better end result and are rightfully disappointed, you couldn´t seriously expect a much better outcome, or did you?

We are able to see the large number of promising young arms up & down the farm system and we are able to see that 2014 payroll obligations for 2014 – as of now – merely figure to be in the low 50 million $ range including all the arbitration eligible players, thus suggesting an enormous amount of available funds even if the payroll is to remain at the current – for a large market team rather modest – level of roughly 95 million $. However, a statement that you acknowledge that there´s a major need to add impact major league talent and that you´re not only able to but very much determined to get it and get it soon – be it via free agency or trades would certainly help us feel a bit better and remain understanding of the process. Just some more frankness and candidness about the current situation and what you plan to do in the future would be much appreciated.

I am afraid that the “honeymoon” phase will be over by the end of the 2013 season. From 2014 on, even those who have remained patient, understanding & optimistic throughout the past three years will expect results on the field. And even if that´s quite a challenge, at the very least we expect direction from the person in charge of steering this ship going forward.

Eager to hear from you and hoping our patience will be rewarded.

Best regards,

André D. (a caring & generally optimistic fan and member of the MMO team)

Jeremy Hefner lasted just four innings and dropped to 0-5 on the season as the Mets took it on the chin in an 8-2 loss to the Cubs on Saturday at Wrigley Field.

Hefner allowed four runs on five hits and three walks and quickly put his team in a hole. The right-hander now has a 5.00 ERA and the Mets are 0-8 when he starts a game.

“He just fell behind in counts,” said Terry Collins. “When he got behind, he had some three-ball counts that he didn’t have earlier. And then he had to come around the plate. When he came around the plate, they put it in play.”

The bullpen was no better as Robert Carson and Collin McHugh both pitched two innings each and allowed a pair of runs.

The Mets wouldn’t get on the board until the ninth inning when they were already down 8-0. John Buck singled and then center fielder Rick Ankiel hit a two-run homer, his second as a Met and seventh overall.

David Wright had two critical strikeouts and looks like he’s trying to do too much at the plate. Ike Davis went 0-for-4 and has about two weeks to straighten himself out or face a demotion to the minors. He is 1 for his last 30.

One bright spot came late in the game when shortstop Ruben Tejada made a spectacular diving stop and initiated an incredible 6-4-3 double-play.

The Mets were 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position and left seven runners on base. They are now 0-9 the day after Matt Harvey starts.

Another day game for the Mets tomorrow as Dillon Gee (2-5, 6.13 ERA) opposes left-hander Travis Wood (4-2, 2.03) in the 2:20 PM rubber match.

All valid in the early Duda critique.

Now, unbelievably, he’s become too selective, too patient at the plate. No matter how hard I try, I don’t get this one.

Even Keith Hernandez, who has forgotten more about hitting than most of us will ever know, has been after Duda on his patience. Hernandez believes Duda should be more aggressive with runners in scoring position. Yesterday in that position, Duda worked deep into the count. And, as the at-bat continued and the talk was for him to be more aggressive, Duda lashed a 3-and-1 pitch through the right side of the infield for a RBI single in a perfect piece of hitting.

Until that swing, the conversation was about Duda’s growing patience, as if it was a fatal, fundamental flaw  instead of a strength.

Duda has a .417 on-base percentage, in large part to 21 walks. While the season is still young, his on-base percentage and OPS are the best of his career. For much of the spring he had more walks than strikeouts, but that has reversed.

However, what people are noting most are his six homers with only 11 RBI. Surely, with that much power, he should have more RBI. It it is a plausible argument, but not an all inclusive one.

Pitchers, wary of Duda’s power, have been exceedingly cautious and try to get him to chase. However, when he might have swung earlier in his career, he’s now waiting them out. Instead of giving away at-bats, he’s learned to take the walk, but that’s not a flaw.

Do you really want to see Duda be another Ike Davis, who gives away countless at-bats by flailing a pitches he has no chance of hitting?

The best thing for Duda would be to continue being patient and taking his walks. If somebody – are you listening Davis? – provided more protection behind him, then Duda might see more pitches, fastballs to be exact, in the zone.

Trust me on this one, the last thing you want is for Duda reverting to bad habits and chasing junk. The more walks he takes, the better he’ll become at recognizing pitches. He’ll waste fewer at-bats and eventually get his pitch to drive.

The expectations for Duda to walk less and swing more have been brought on by the Mets’ overall woeful offense.  The problem isn’t in Duda is taking too many pitches, but others in the batting order are not.

As I expected, the Mets have demoted Josh Edgin to Double-A Binghamton to clear a roster spot for Shaun Marcum.

I even speculated that he should go to Binghamton which is where he ends up.

We’ll see him again, I’m sure…

Updated on 4/26

I got an interesting email from Kevin (K Maxx) this morning who asked, “if Terry Collins is so concerned about Josh Edging being overworked, why does he keep overworking him?”

I did a quick check and was shocked to see that Edgin made 75 appearances last season between the Mets and the minors. That would have placed him tenth in the NL.

The 75 appearances was the largest workload of his pro career and more than a 50% increase from his previous high of 49 appearances.

So far this season, Edgin has appeared in 10 of the first 20 games and is on pace for 81 appearances.

K Maxx may have a point.

Original Post 4/24

What happened to the Josh Edgin who came up and immediately became one of the more reliable and dominant relievers out of our bullpen last year?

As if his his 10.80 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 10 appearances wasn’t bad enough, I took a quick glance at his splits and it really showed me how bad things really have gotten for Edgin since last season.

• Versus LH Batters – 368

• Versus RH Batters – .333

Those batting averages against are just plain awful to look at and clearly a sign that something is amiss. He no longer exudes the confidence he once did and his entire demeanor on the mound has done a complete 180. This is not the same intimidating and effective force we saw in 2012. It’s as if he was replicated by one of those giant seapods from Invasion of the Body Snatchers?

Good God, what’s happened to Josh Edgin?

Edgin burst onto the scene sporting a fastball with that had great late life and came in at 93-95 mph. The velocity and the movement are just not there anymore. His slider, which was so effective last season, is now “big and sloppy and flat”, according to Bobby Ojeda.

Terry Collins had a lot to say about Edgin after the game, and to say he’s very concerned is an understatement.

“One of the things I’m a little concerned about is that last year Josh Edgin made a lot of appearances. He also warmed up in the bullpen a lot of times and then didn’t come into the game. That also puts a lot of stress on your arm. Edgin pitched a lot last season and I’m afraid his arm isn’t responding well. I’m a little concerned that’s what we’re facing right now with Edgin.”

“I’ve had pitchers in the past where after their first full season the arm doesn’t respond well. I think that’s what’s happening. We’re going to talk to him and work with him tomorrow and try to see how we can get him back to what he was.”

You’ve lost that lovin’ feeling.

Collins was visibly frustrated while talking about Edgin and it sounded to me like his patience may be running out on his young southpaw.

“Command is everything when you’re in the major leagues,” Collins said. “Right now Edgin needs to do what got him here if he wants to stay here.”

When the Mets announced that they were calling up Robert Carson, you may remember I thought Edgin was as good as gone. Instead the Mets decided to part with Greg Burke. That was surprising to me. Now I see no other solution than to send Edgin to Triple-A Vegas or even Double-A Binghamton to recharge his batteries and get some of that confidence he once had back.

Edgin has lost his edge

Updated by Joe D. on 4/20

What a game it was for Lucas Duda last night in the Mets 7-1 win against the Nationals. Duda had his best game ever as a Met going 2-for-3 with hit two home runs and a walk . The hulking Mets left fielder is now batting .308 for the season with five home runs and eight RBI in 14 games. Duda’s patience has paid off as Adam Rossi said it would in the post below three days ago.

Duda in now second in the Major Leagues with 12 walks, a .491 On-Base Percentage and a staggering 1.234 OPS. That’s absolutely incredible.

According to FanGraphs, Duda is swinging at only 12.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone so far this season, which again points out much of what Adam discussed in his analysis below. It’s definitely worth a second read…

Original Post April 17, 2012

Heading into the 2013, no Met has more pressure on him than Lucas Duda. For the past four years, Duda has shown flashes of power that could make him a good middle-of-the-order hitter. He has also provided a lot of head-scratching moments, somewhat unintentionally comical, both at the plate and in the field.

We know one thing is certain with Duda: he is not going to win ballgames with his defense. Nevertheless, if he can put up the power numbers that he’s been teasing everybody with this season, he should become a valuable player. All that teasing has caused Sandy Alderson and rest of this Mets front office to be very patient with Duda, and now he may finally be rewarding them for that patience because of…well…his patience.

Duda Doesn’t Chase

One could look at Lucas Duda’s stats through 13 games, see his .469 OBP, and easily realize Duda has been taking a lot of walks so far (11 walks in 49 plate appearances, to be exact). But that does not tell us much about whether or not he can sustain anything throughout the season. The following stat, however, is encouraging: 14.1% O-Swing % — in other words, Duda has only swung at 14.1% of pitches outside the strike zone. What’s even more encouraging is the fact that his O-Swing % has been steadily improving. In 2011, his O-Swing % was 29.8%, followed by 25.3% in 2012. I don’t expect his percentage to remain this low throughout the whole season, but if he can keep it under 25%, that would be significant. To understand how significant, let’s look at Joey Votto, who is arguably the most patient hitter in baseball. His career O-Swing % is 25.3%. Lucas Duda is not going to be Joey Votto, but he can at least provide part of what makes Votto such a valuable player.

With Patience Comes Power 

Obviously taking pitches helps a player with more than just his walk rate. The more pitches a batter sees, the more knowledge he gains about what the pitcher is throwing. More importantly, the more bad pitches a batter takes, the more he forces a pitcher to throw him strikes, which means the more opportunities he will get to hit a mistake and hit it hard. This has also benefited Duda early on in the season. Pitchers have thrown Duda a first pitch strike only 44.9% of the time this season, which means he has been starting off his at-bats in a 1-0 count 55% of the time. On top of that, pitchers have thrown him pitches in the strike zone 44.1% of the time, compared to 37.6% last year. What that tells me is that pitchers are starting to realize Duda won’t chase balls out of the zone, so they are being forced to throw him more strikes. As a result, Duda has improved his chances of getting a ball in the zone by 7% so far. And when you start throwing a lot of strikes to a player with Duda’s power, it’s going to result in a lot of hard hit balls.

Making Contact 

Of course, the only way Duda can make use of all the strikes he’s seeing is by making contact with the ball. This has been a problem with Duda throughout his young career, but there are once again early signs that show improvement. While he still has a pretty high strikeout rate this season (22.4%), it has been better than last year (26.1%). Also, his swing-and-miss percentage has improved by nearly 2% (7% this season, compared to 9.1% in 2012). Some of that may have to do with the fact that he isn’t swinging as much as he has in the past. Along with not swinging at pitches out of the zone, Duda also has not been swinging at as many pitches in the zone. After swinging at 64.2% of strikes in 2011 and 62.5% last year, Duda has only swung at 50% of strikes that have been thrown to him this year. That may not be a terrible thing though, since many times pitchers make good pitches that a hitter can’t do much with, even if it is a strike, and they are better off letting it go. On top of that, by not swinging as much, Duda has improved his chances of making contact when he does swing. And improving your chances can only help bring success.

It is still way too early to claim somebody a breakout player or a bust, but it is not too early to look at early season trends and try to figure out what could happen. If the Mets are going to have any success this season, there’s a good chance Lucas Duda will be a part of that. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence  then, that both he and the Mets are off to a good start.

(Note: All stats mentioned in this post are courtesy of Fangraphs)

This was the same player that had a .298 avg. a .908 OPS and a .403 OBP in AAA as a 23 year old, but major league pitchers figured him out. They’d pour in a couple of early strikes, some breaking pitches to mess up his line of sight, and would finish him off with a fastball up and in.

Early on Kirk was swinging at everything — including that first strike or two. With a 0 – 0 count, Kirk hit .364. He was clobbering get-me-over strikes. With an 0 – 1 count his average dropped to .250, still, not bad. Now all hitters do poorly with 2 strikes, but not quite as poorly as Kirk. With an 0 – 2 count Kirk hit .172, with a 1 – 2 count he hit .175, with a 2 – 2 count he hit .145 (!). Given a relatively neutral “start from scratch” 3 – 2 count, Kirk hit .129!  Why would Kirk hit worse with a 3 – 2 or a 2 – 2 count than he would with a 0 – 2 count? Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe he was trying too hard to work walks on those counts. The take away here is that the more pitches Kirk sees the more his average drops.

The drop-off from the first part of his season (his first 6 weeks) to his 2nd half was unbelievable (he ended the season on a 9 for 73 skid), and while he did strike out a lot in the minors, he also put up some pretty decent numbers — especially in 2011 at AAA with a .408 obp. Sure the league adjusted to him, but 9 for 73?

Strangely, Kirk’s K-rates month to month don’t really tell us much – they’re fairly flat, but Kirk sure did make out more as the year progressed. He went from a 26.7% K-rate in AAA in 2011 (he was actually at 21.5% in 94 games in 2010 at AA) to a 31.2% rate in the majors which is a hefty jump, but lets chalk that up to the higher level of competition. 63 of Kirks K’s came after a first pitch strike and my sense is than an inordinate number of them were called strikes (Kirk needs to be swinging at that first pitch).

But here’s the kicker — again, forget about K-rates for a moment — Kirk hit .125 after working the count to 3 – 2 (for the season), he hit .138 on 2 – 2 counts, and on the ultimate hitter’s count, 3 – 1, he hit a measly .231. On the other hand, he hit .417 on 0 – 0 counts, .611 on 1 – 0 counts, and .522 on 1 – 1 counts. This is a kid who does not do well deep in counts.

Here’s another tidbit, of his 3 full months, his highest drop in avg (from .323 down to .263) coincided with his highest walk total (10) for a single month. Obviously after a torrid April it was impressed upon Kirk to try and walk more. This sent his avg into a tailspin from which it never recovered. In what universe would you preach patience to a player who seems to be at his best when he is most aggressive? A good development program tailors adjustments to talented players even when they aren’t perfect fits … this obviously did not happen for Kirk, in fact they defied convention and tried to make a high OBP lead-off type hitter out of him. Naturally, his performance tanked because his particular skill-set was disinclined to that particular role.

Did Kirk strike out more as he took more pitches? Not really, but he did make out more — his BABIP went from .453 in April, to .396 in May, to .283 in June, to .200 in July. Kirk, while not necessarily striking out more, had a ton of soft grounders mixed in with a healthy dose of pop ups and fly balls because he was too tentative and had completely lost his confidence.
Here’s the breakdown again:

HIGH pitch count

3 – 2  .125
2 – 2  .138
3 – 1  .231

LOW pitch count

0 – 0  .417
1 – 0  .611
1 – 1 . 522

Kirk hit .231 on 3 – 1 counts and .200 on 3 – 0 counts. These are hitters counts for crying out loud! David Wright hit .333 on 3 – 2 counts and .413 on 3 – 1 counts! Ruben Tejada hit .444 on 3 – 1 counts. Good lord even Mike Nickeas hit .333 on 3 – 1 counts!  I think Kirk might simply be prone to getting his line of sight messed up when he see’s a lot of pitches and he swings at pitches out of the zone resulting in weak contact.

Another thing to consider with Kirk is that while batting eye rarely improves very much, power almost always does for young players. So here we have this kid who strikes out 31% of the time (Ryan Howard struck out over 30% of the time too), maybe he improves to 26% or 27% (closer to what he was in the minors). I’ll take that any day from a solid fielding Center fielder if it comes with an 800 ops and 20 – 25 homers … sort of a Mark Reynolds / Mark Cameron hybrid, but a lead-off hitter? No.

The premise is essentially pedagogical. I think there was a conflict of program and skill set that confounded Kirk’s progress. Teachers who tailor their instruction to their students’ strengths rather than focusing exclusively on the remediation of weaknesses tend see more improvement. You don’t try and teach a 350 lb. lineman how to play Safety. Nelson Cruz had a .319. OBP last year, did the Rangers bat him in the lead-off spot? Of course not, the vast majority of Cruz’ at bats were in the #5 and #6 spots. Sure, maybe Cruz has a lot more redeeming traits than Kirk, but Kirk was a pretty good player in the minors, who is to say he might not have shown a less gradual drop-off in his production in 2012 if he hadn’t been overwhelmed by having to bat lead-off?

Would Kirk benefit from being more patient in the here and now? I’m willing to entertain that (especially as his BB rate was almost twice what it was in AAA than it was in 2012), but putting him in the lead-off spot can not possibly help him in that regard — he wasn’t ready for it. What happens when you overburden learners before they are ready? Well, not only do they almost always fail, but you destroy their confidence, which is perhaps the worst thing that can happen to a young player.

If you’re going to make a more patient hitter out of Kirk Nieuwenhuis, you don’t do it by moving him from pre-algebra to particle physics in the same quarter. You do it gradually, and in the meantime, you’d hope there is room on the Mets for players who don’t fit organizational tenets but provide value in other ways. Kirk was a success story who’d shown improvement at every level and was coming off a stint in AAA where he’d put up a +15% walk rate and a +.400 OBP. He has the tools (speed, some gap power, good defense) to become a valuable player. The Mets need to recognize his strengths and talents and build a player based on them rather than trying to reinvent a Kirk Nieuwenhuis that bears no resemblance to the one who was brought up from AAA last year.

Did Kirk try to be more patient when he was put in the lead-off spot? Who knows, maybe he didn’t, maybe he thought screw you Collins you ancient white haired little gremlin, I’m going to do what got me here, I’m going to swing at every frigging thing they throw at me. That’s possible. Or, more likely, he was a good soldier, did what he and every baseball player and coach knows a lead-off hitter is supposed to do and tried to get on base at a higher clip.

Initially he was successful walking 10 times in May, but at what price? He sacrificed the aggressiveness that was at the core of his success, he became tentative and uncertain, his attempts to make contact resulted in an extraordinary number of soft grounders to go along with his already high strike outs and dwindling walks. Things went from bad to worse as he became ever more desperate to make contact and pitchers more and more pitched him outside the zone.

Putting Nieuwinhuis in the lead-off role is asking for trouble given his history. Will he fail? Well, if Collins is determined to bat him lead-off I would still root for him hoping against the odds that the succeeds, and if he does I’ll be the fist to acknowledge that perhaps he’s a better student of the game than I’d given him credit for, but it’s asking an awful lot from a rookie whose got some valuable redeeming qualities independent of his ability to work walks.

We have all heard the phrase good things come to those that wait, but the phrase really only works if you seem to have a plan for the future that you intend to wait for.

Patience works if you have a plan. But I see no plan at work with this organization.

Many have tried to tell me the plan was to rebuild the “AWFUL” minor league system. But that plan was usurped the second we failed to sign half the guys we selected in the draft. If half a draft class was not good enough to try and push the guys we had then the only thing you could take from that is that the guys we had are pretty damn good because half a draft class wasn’t worth replacing the ones that existed.

In two years the only addition of any significance has been pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, and that cost us a player who is among the top five in the National League in a dozen different categories and having an MVP-caliber season. He would have cost us only $13 million to bring back which leads to the next excuse people run to…

Others have said that the plan was to “get the budget in order”. Well, we did cut $55 million from the budget and yet “we are still too poor” is the mantra.

Lets assume we could make Bay’s contract disappear. Will we be able to afford the team then? Just Barely? Can we buy anything with that $16MM? Well if the folks who think we are broke are actually right, then the answer is NO. We just don’t spend that money and we move on with no more than a $75 million dollar payroll for next season. Is that something worth waiting for and looking forward to?

Patience is a gift that is freely given to someone provided that they have showed us they have a plan, and that the plan is sound, and that there is a some sort of reward at the end of the rainbow to reward our patience.

But I see no plan. I see no rainbow. Hell I don’t even see a light at the end of the tunnel. We’re in a dark cave and we are walking deeper and deeper into it with no exit in sight.

If the plan was to rebuild then there would be some evidence of it by signing most of our draft selections and including paying slot price for our second rounder who was unsigned over a difference on $60 thousand dollars.
To the folks who said the farm is still in shambles, apparently in the last two years we could have replaced the bottom 34 players with 34 new players that we drafted, but opted not to sign them. The only assumption was that none of them were seen as upgrades to what we had already. By the way, the unsigned players by the Mets in this year’s draft was the most among all 30 MLB teams.

Also if we were really building for the future, the few Free Agent signings we HAVE SIGNED, would not be one year or two year deals for players from the scrap heap and still hanging around in January due to a lack of interest from other teams. Rebuilding teams would have targeted players and signed contracts that would solve a position of need for a much longer time period to provide a stability until the kids are ready. Then you could trade them for even more kids to keep the minor league train a rollin’.

If the plan was to get the budget in order, well then why did they announce the end of the season two July’s in a row?

The best way to solve budgetary problems is to MAKE more money not save more money. We saved money this year and yet we are still reportedly $23 million in the red this season instead of $70 million. The difference? The $55 million in payroll that Alderson has shed since he took over the reins. Looks like he still has some slashing to do.

There is no plan and it’s easy to see… Look no further than the moves that have been made just this year alone. We did well in the draft the optimists say, just not good enough to keep half the players we selected.

We are Buyers was the message from April through July, and of course the Mets collapsed right on cue in the days leading up to the 31st. Of course they did, after all they lost their ace, their closer, and their number four starter with none of those casualties being addressed. Well that’s not totally accurate, they did initially replace Santana and Gee with Miguel Batista and Chris Schwinden until they were each designated for assignment two weeks later.

I’m sorry, but what we’ve witnessed this season is not a plan and there is no underlying logic here to make our patience pay off. All they are doing is reacting to events as they occur… Sometimes. There’s nothing proactive going on here right now.

There is no plan, unless you consider waiting for a miracle to rain down upon us as a plan. Waiting is neither a plan nor a strategy.

This Fan Shot was submitted by MMO reader, Metsie. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 12 thousand Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask about being a regular contributor, and share your opinions with an engaging community that loves to debate

Mack from Mack’s Mets spoke to Steven Matz who will be shutdown for the rest of the 2011 season.

Matz:  -  Hey Mack, yeah, my season is definitely going to be over. I was back in simulated games in May, and I seemed to be fine. My velocity on all my pitches was back and even a little higher, but it started to hurt again.  I got a second opinion from Dr Andrews and he said its just not 100% healed yet.  I got a prp injection and have to rest six weeks.  It’s beyond frustrating, but there’s really nothing else I can do.

Unfortunate, to say the least. We hope he returns strong next season and that the pain goes away soon. Here is an interview we did with him last month.

Interview With Mets 2009 Top Draft Pick, RHP Steven Matz

Back in 2009, the name “Steven Matz” was a popular topic amongst Mets fans. The second-round pick was dominant at Ward-Melville High School on Long Island and appeared to be a candidate to shoot through the minor leagues and contribute for the big club.

However, an elbow injury delayed the start of his career, so much so that he underwent Tommy John Surgery in May 2010.

I caught up with Matz, who is a terrific young man, to see how his rehab was going and to gauge his thoughts on what it was like being a Mets fans growing up who was then drafted by the Mets.

In his senior year of high school, more and more scouts began showing up at his starts after good showings at summer showcases. Matz only gave up two earned runs that entire season, which propelled his draft status. He was notified before the draft that the Mets were prepared to select him with the 72nd overall pick.

“It was pretty exciting because a lot of my family members are big fans too,” Matz said. “It’s pretty much every kid’s dream, especially getting picked by your own team.”

Growing up, Matz was a huge fan of lefty starting pitchers but mainly Johan Santana. Santana was playing with the Twins, but Matz emulated the crafty lefty, especially in developing a nasty changeup.

When the Mets acquired Santana via trade in 2008, Matz was super excited. Little did he know that he would be learning from Santana just one year later. Matz has absorbed Santana’s knowledge and will continue learning from the veteran hurler.

Matz fondly remembers that 2000 Subway Series World Series. However, we both agreed that we wish it could’ve ended differently.

As for his rehab, Matz has experienced a few setbacks that may prolong his minor league debut. He was facing hitters several weeks ago, but a scar tissue breakup has forced him to refrain from throwing.

“It’s been a little bit of a rocky road,” said Matz. “It [his arm] was finally feeling really good, and I guess I had a little bit more scar tissue, so hopefully I can get past that again.”

Still, Matz is only 20 years old, and the Mets brass has preached patience to him. He’s itching to see live game action, but he realizes that his patience will pay off.

“That’s the key really because I started when I was 18 and now I’m 20 and I still haven’t even thrown a professional pitch,” Matz said.

During his rehab, Matz has confided in former Met pitcher and current minor league pitching coordinator Randy Niemann. Niemann has been very supportive of Matz and has encouraged him to stay the course and good things will happen.

“He’s [Niemann] been real helpful to me along the way in reiterating that that you have to be very patient, and it will come,” said Matz.

Niemann has assisted Matz in developing a curveball. In high school, Matz was a fastball-changeup pitcher since he merely overpowered opposing hitters. However, He has realized that at this level, he needs a more diverse. When the pitch is properly developed, Matz will use his curveball as his strikeout pitch.

Though his 2011 debut remains uncertain, the next step for Matz is to get healthy. The little bumps in the road have been a nuisance, but Matz is willing to remain patient if it means returning at full-strength.

“I’ve done everything I possibly could, and if it’s not going to work out then that’s what it’s meant to be,” Matz said. “At the end of the day, you know you tried as hard as you possibly could to get back, and hopefully it will pay off.”

It’s this attitude that will allow Matz to recover from injury and embark on his professional career. His goal for the end of this season is to be fully healthy, whether or not that includes some live game action at one of the Mets short season Single-A affiliates.

“I’d like to end the season off on a good note, hopefully 100 percent,” said Matz.

If he continues along the path to recovery, Matz will be ready to compete in spring training next year to show he is ready. Just like he has been these last two years, we Met fans need to be patient with Matz.

After speaking with him, I can tell he’ll do whatever it takes to have a successful career. Good luck to Steven as he continues his rehab and prepares for his first professional start, which will hopefully be sometime this summer.

Follow me on Twitter @JMMancari.

That is of course unless the organization is content with the pieces they have. No offense to Sandy Alderson, but he should be spending more time exploring ways to help the team than making lame season ticket advertisement videos. No one will be buying season tickets anyway if the team looks like it does now.

As David Wright said at last week’s Holiday party, the Mets still have good players. Barring any major health issues, this is definitely true. Johan Santana is already on the shelf though so the Mets cannot incur anymore injuries.

Part of me likes Alderson’s thinking. Why break the bank for free agent starting pitching that has a history of injury and only sign them for one year? Why not wait until you have some money to work with next year and either bring in someone who can help in the long-term or see if your prospects have developed at the major league level?

We already know Ike Davis and Josh Thole will be given every opportunity to succeed at the highest level. Terry Collins already said that he expects Jenrry Mejia to contribute at some point this season. As of now at least, Lucas Duda and Nick Evans appear to be front-runners for bench spots, but I’d rather see them (especially Duda) play everyday in AAA.

We know Ruben Tejada will start in the minors as well. Dillon Gee is penciled into the fourth spot of the Mets rotation so even he will be asked to elevate his game.

The Rule 5 picks (Brad Emaus and Pedro Beato) may also be thrown into major league duty this year.

So if Alderson is content with allowing these young players to develop on the highest stage in hopes of a better future, I agree with him. That being said, if the Mets somehow find themselves competing for a divisional or wild card berth when Santana returns, I would like to see the team acquire a piece or two near the trade deadline to make that final push.

Mets teams with less talent than this one have done quite well, so there’s no reason for fans to be giving up hope in late December.