The 2-spot as in the #2 pitcher, the Set Up man, and the 2-spot in the batting order.  Before you rip my head off about worrying about the second spot in the order, trust me when I say I’ll explain later, and let’s start with the pitching.

We know the Mets won’t have Top Dollar to spend this offseason, so let’s be hopefully-realistic.  Brandon Webb announced on Wednesday (Rotowire.com) that he would not accept an incentive-laden deal from Arizona, and would test free agency if his option is not picked up.  Now, I said hopefully-realistic, so Brandon Webb would appear out, right?  Not necessarily.  His option that he wants the D-Backs to pick up is worth $8.5 million.  That doesn’t mean we’d get him at $8.5 million, but it does make the day brighter.  Would I want Brandon Webb pitching behind Johan in the Mets rotation next season and beyond, even WITH the injury this year?  Absolutely.  Do I think the Mets could sign him considering their likely budget?  That remains to be seen (and I wouldn’t think the Wilpons would be willing to sign his paycheck, too, next year), but it brings up two interesting scenarios involving two free agent starting pitchers who missed the 2009 season.  Yes, I’m talking about Ben Sheets.

I know, I know, he’s a risk, but it is high-risk, high-reward.  Playing it safe doesn’t get you anywhere but the golf course in October.  I’m not suggesting throwing cash after either of them, I’m suggesting (if I can play GM for a moment) making them bid against each other.  Now, obviously, Webb is worth more than Sheets, but they are both in similar situations.  In 2008, Sheets had the better ERA (3.03 to 3.30), and Webb edged Sheets in K/9 (7.3-7.2) and WHIP (1.20-1.24).  As injury-prone as he is, Sheets has only pitched under 140 innings in a season once before 2009 and had NEVER pitched fewer than 100 in his career…not Webb’s 220 IP/year average (before 2009), but not as bad as you’d think.  I say put them in a bidding war of sorts, but sign Sheets to the contract and save the money for other spots.

Now let’s get to the Pen.  We moved Billy Wagner to Boston, so any hopes and dreams of him taking the role of setup man in 2010 are out the window.  JJ Putz was damaged goods when we got him, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid that he’s a total bust…if we can keep him.  After missing significant time, and with JJ no longer being a premier closer or even setup option, a one-year deal to keep him on again so he can try out for a closer’s job in 2011 may not be too far-fetched.  Plus, with guys like Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde likely on the market, he wouldn’t even have the benefit of being the best option of a weak field.  I’m not suggesting the Mets pick up the option, but try to negotiate a different deal that has some incentives.  Offer him $3 million and $3 million more in incentives ($1 million for ERA, $1 million for WHIP, and $1 million for the Playoffs, all with a minimum amount of IP).  He won’t make $5 million in this free agent market (we’d pay him the other $1 million in a buyout), and if he has another bad/injury-plagued season, we pay him only $2 million extra for it.

Now for the 2-spot in the order.  This is where we make the money back.  By keeping Angel Pagan in the 2-spot (behind a hopefully-healthy Jose) and in LF and deciding on it sooner rather than later, it allows us to do a few more things.  First, we can build his confidence and work with him on the things that he needs to work on (not going down that road right now).  Also, Dan Murphy gets another season (or 2) of experience in the Minors, and, most importantly, we save the money by not needing a new left fielder to sign Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock, Adam LaRoche, or another 1st Baseman.  On the flipside, keeping Murphy at first base and replacing Pagan with a slugger in LF bat takes that extra speed option out of the picture.  As much as I like Murphy, the team is better off signing a first baseman and keeping Pagan in the lineup rather than vice versa.

I do agree with Joe that Pagan needs work on the fundamentals and everything else, but let’s get hopefully-realistic…  We will not be able to afford to sign both a LF and 1B replacement this offseason, so it’s one or the other.  Murphy’s looked somewhat sharp at 1B at times, but let’s not say that he’s suddenly a Gold Glover.  And, no, Angel Pagan has not been perfect either, but as Joe pointed out, blunders aside, he’s been VERY good at the dish, and he, too, has had his moments of defensive glory.  One of these guys (at least) will be in the Mets 2010 Opening Day lineup plans, and I feel more comfortable with Pagan than with Murphy at this point.

Now for everyone’s favorite part: the math.  The Mets, in just Billy Wagner, Brian Schneider, and Carlos Delgado’s salaries, cut $27.4 million dollars from the books.  Let’s say the Wilpons decide to cut $7.4 million from the budget (for ease of numbers’ sake…it’s about 5% of the total 2009 salary).  That leaves us $20 million.  Sheets and Putz total to around $10 million ($7 million for Sheets seems reasonable to me considering his injury history and lack of Scott Boras as an agent), and our first base solution could come for about $6-8 million, leaving some more money for a rainy day, like November 14, 2139 (when Uncle Bernie is released from prison).  Jokes aside, adding these 2 players (and keeping JJ) for 2010 would greatly improve our team.  Just as a projection (assuming no other signings):

Lineup:
SS-Reyes
LF-Pagan
3B-Wright
CF-Beltran
1B-Johnson/Blalock
RF-Francoeur
C-Santos/Thole
2B-Castillo (only because I prefer placing speed and contact ability in the 8-hole instead of in the 7-hole)

Rotation:
Santana
Sheets
Pelfrey
Maine
Perez/Niese

Bullpen (Big 3):
F. Rodriguez
Putz
Feliciano

I’m not saying this offseason is as easy as 1-2-3 (SP-1B-RP) to go from 2009′s team to a pennant-contender, but it’s certainly a jump-start in the right direction and an instant and vast improvement.  There are other holes to fill (like the one between the ears of certain people within the Mets organization), but you’ve got to start somewhere, so I say start by looking out for #2.

Assume for a second that everybody’s fantasy of acquiring Prince Fielder or Adrian Gonzalez is not going to happen. Even if it does happen, the price tag for both of them will be astronomical. To me that leaves the Mets with the following options at 1B in 2010. 

They can either re-sign Carlos Delgado on a wing and a prayer that he’s healthy enough to return to his 2008 form at the age of 38. I just can’t sign off on this. I’m sorry but the Mets need to do something to change the culture of this team, and the first thing they need to do is let Delgado play somewhere else. If he hits 40 bombs in San Francisco next year, fine by me. The definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over, and expecting different results. 

They can keep Daniel Murphy at 1B all season long and hope that at age 25 Murphy has learned enough about playing in the big leagues that he can be an adequate first baseman. The thing with Murphy to me is, he could be a valuable player, but he was asked to do too much, too soon. Not everybody is a superstar at age 24, and Murphy was basically asked to live up to that type of potential. He’s a good ball player, but he needs to take a step back. Murphy could be more valuable to the Mets as a 26 year old player who backed up a legit starting 1B for 2 years. 

The third option to me is signing Nick Johnson to be the first baseman for the NY Mets. This option not only brings a lot to the current makeup of this team, but it also allows them to keep Murphy and work with him to get him to be the player they know he can be. The only, and I mean the ONLY reason not to bring Johnson into this organization is his injury past. 

To be fair, some of his injuries were just a case of bad luck. You can’t label a guy injury prone when he collides with an outfielder at Shea Stadium and breaks his femur. You can’t call a guy injury prone when a ball takes an absolute wicked hop and breaks his cheekbone. Back injuries, sure I’ll buy those. Remind me again, when Vlad Guerrero had his back problems and the Mets avoided him, how’d that work out? Vlad won which award the following year? Oh right! Most Valuable Player. 

Here’s the problem I have with that though. When people argue he is too injury prone, they are implying that the Mets, Nick Johnson, and his agent don’t know that. I don’t think Johnson is going to hit the market and demand an insanely huge contract. Take a look at last year’s market, there is nothing that says a 1 year contract isn’t an option when it comes to Johnson. 

If Nick Johnson does get injured, the Mets still would have Daniel Murphy and possibly Ike Davis available to come up for a replacement. 

It’s a gamble, I admit that. It is however a gamble that will cost the Mets the least amount of sacrifice at the end of the day. 

Here’s why Nick Johnson is a great fit for the Mets in 2010. 

Let’s keep in mind also that Johnson has over 400 AB’s this year. Johnson is THIRD in the Major Leagues in OBP. Some devalue OBP, but you can’t score runs unless you have players on base. The impact of Johnson batting third in front of the likes of Carlos Beltran and David Wright would be amazing. You want somebody to teach Daniel Murphy how to play 1B and be a patient hitter at the same time? Johnson’s your guy. 

Among qualified hitters, Johnson sees the third most pitches per at bat. He’s a grinder. He makes pitchers work, and 42% of the time he ends up on base due to it. You simply cannot find that kind of player without paying an enormous contract. If Johnson takes a decent financial deal at let’s just say two years, it’s a no brainer to me to take that chance!

Johnson also has played in NY before, and if you read Joe Torre’s book, you read that Torre wanted to keep Johnson rather than acquire Jason Giambi. You know he can handle it in NY, which is always a big question mark for any high priced free agent coming to play here for the first time.  

If Johnson’s negotiations go as I expect them to, he will not cost the Mets an arm and a leg, and will allow the Mets to keep their much needed minor league prospects, while also allowing them to work the free agent market for a left fielder and a pitcher. He is the most talented and most cost effective 1B option the Mets have for 2010 without unloading the farm system. 

Finally, I’ll make you a deal. If the Mets do sign Johnson, and he ends up not earning his paycheck due to injury, I’ll write up a story about how you were right and I was wrong. However, if Johnson has a season where he gets over 400 AB’s, and is on base over 40% of the time hitting in front of David Wright and Carlos Beltran, you better expect to read an I told you so column!

And while most baseball analysts agree that each will be made available, I believe each of them bring something different to the table.

Lets take a look at their numbers and at the same time I’ll give you what I believe are the pros and cons for each player.

Aubrey Huff – Age 32 – Bats Left – $8.0 million – Free Agent 2010

Pros – Huff is the pure slugger in the group and has the most homerun power, a factor that sits in his favor. His average and OBP percentage are not bad and just slightly above average. Last season he batted .304 with 32 homers and 108 RBIs. Finished in top ten in doubles, homers, total bases, SLG and OPS in 2009.

Cons – He is not a great defender at 1B and but has slightly better than average range and fielding percentage. The Orioles split his time at DH. The Orioles want a lot and he’s a free agent after the season.

Mark De Rosa – Age 34 – Bats Right – $5.5 million – Free Agent 2010

Pros – He’s enjoying a power spike in the last two seasons and is in the midst of another solid season. After a career high 87 RBIs in ’08, he is on pace to surpass 100 this season. Has a solid reputation as clubhouse guy and can play all four infield positions as well as corner outfield.  He would look great batting second or fifth in the Mets lineup.

Cons – There really are no cons with DeRosa outside of the Indians asking price, and this fear I have that after the season the Mets may hand him a 4-year deal at age 35.

Nick Johnson – Age 30 – Bats Left – $5.5 million – Free Agent 2010

Pros – He is having a solid season at the plate and has always been a solid OBP guy with a .398 career mark. His career OPS is better than either Huff or DeRosa, but his slugging has been erratic throughout his career. Makes solid contact. He is younger than the other two and the Mets could keep him if he pans out, but don’t expect big homerun numbers.

Cons – After hitting .220 last season, he’s batting .308 and is about to cash in on free agency at season’s end. I always wonder about guys who have career years at this stage of the game. Although he has good range at 1B, his fielding is below average. He is also one of the most injury prone players in the league and has only had over 400 at-bats twice in a seven year career. He has little speed and it’s mostly station to station with NJ.

All three players are in the final year of their contracts, so unless any of them resign with the Mets, they are all to be viewed as three month rentals.