The real issue when considering competitive balance is revenue.  Some teams make a lot more of it than others by nature of their location, their fan base, and access to media outlets. I’ve always been puzzled by the notion of competitive balance at the micro-economic level. Isn’t the nature of competition such that the better organization and the better team should win? I understand that parity is good for the game, but if we really wanted it to be fair wouldn’t we have to rig a system where every team wins the World Series in a set order once every thirty years? How do measures that “level the playing field” not detract from inherent competitive advantages that are earned and deserved? Isn’t survival of the fittest a free market principle? Big markets should have an advantage, they have more people in them, and they pay higher prices.

If on the other hand you look at Baseball on the macro-economic level, as a single sprawling coast to coast business, then things begin to look a little different. You could argue that the scarcity of a brand in multiple smaller markets offers room for growth that makes up for whatever an already profit maximized big market may bring to the table. Competitive balance also makes for more interesting games which makes it essentially a quality control measure. No one enjoys watching the Yankees perennially steamroll the rest of the league (except Yankee fans of course).

Revenue sharing was first instituted in 1996 to help combat growing revenue disparities among MLB franchises. Based on 2012 revenues, $400 million will change hands from the big MLB markets to the small in order to level the playing field. The money is distributed on a sliding scale, which means that teams near the bottom of revenue generated, will receive significantly more than the $27 million average that would be distributed if that money were spread evenly across the bottom 15 teams. Ideally revenue sharing allows small market teams more flexibility in retaining home grown stars that they’ve poured development dollars into.

But revenue sharing hasn’t always worked the way it was intended to. Back in 2009 Maury Brown published an eye opening look at just how much money revenue sharing brought to small markets. He showed, for instance, that the Marlins received $20,946,573 and $21,030,000 in 2002 and 2003, while the Mets paid out -17,366,067 and -21,473,000 on those same years respectively. In 2008 and 2009 the Marlins received $47,982,000 and $43,973,000 respectively. Now consider this for a moment, the Marlins in 2008 had a team payroll of $27,003,450.00 which means the Marlins in 2008 pocketed over 20 million in revenue sharing dollars after payroll expenses. Doesn’t seem fair does it?

The new CBA will change revenue sharing in the coming years to address this very issue. The union requested a new rule that connects revenue-sharing money to big league payroll. In a report by Jason Stark of ESPN in November of 2011, he explained that teams receiving revenue-sharing money are now required to reflect a 40-man roster payroll 25 percent larger than the amount they’re receiving. So, if a team’s revenue-sharing check is for $40 million, their big league payroll needs to be at least $50 million. Also, by the end of this labor deal (2016), teams in the 15 largest markets will no longer receive revenue-sharing money, no matter how low their revenue may be. The 15 teams that will be ineligible for revenue sharing by 2016 are the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Blue Jays, Astros, Giants and A’s.

The problem for many, particularly those on the Player’s Association end, is that MLB continues to register record profits while payrolls have failed to keep pace. Between local network outlets and national media contracts (a deal with Fox was recently valued at $12.4 billion over eight years to be divided across all 30 MLB teams) the sport is seeing unprecedented growth. Maury Brown reported in April of 2011 that gross MLB revenues have jumped from $1.4 billion in 1995 to $7 billion in 2010, a 400% increase. When accounting for inflation, the league still sees a phenomenal 254% increase, and yet many teams have failed to invest these profits proportionately into added payroll. Revenue sharing was supposed to address that problem but it clearly has not.

Scott Boras isn’t happy about it. According to Boras, most teams have lower payrolls heading into the 2013 season than the highest payroll those teams had from 2000-2012. “Only five teams have higher payrolls,” Boras told Murray Chass in a Jan 2013 article. “Everybody else is below even though revenue is up 200 percent and franchise values are up 300, 400 percent. What we’re seeing is not many teams are spending on payrolls despite the fact that their profits are extraordinary. You’d expect teams to have their highest payrolls, but they don’t.” Boras offered these examples:

In spite of revenue sharing, record profits, and media deals sprouting up left and right, Major League teams have failed to invest in players, according to Scott Boras. Is this in fact the case?

Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs recently did a nice analysis of payroll fluctuations. Below are two graphics that she employed.

In the first graph you can see that revenue has indeed outpaced payroll, however, the second graphic is interesting because the year to year percentage changes in both MLB revenue and payrolls do not always reflect a similar trajectory. From 2003 to 2005 revenue rose steadily then remained relatively high while payroll dropped precipitously. Then from 2005 to 2006 payroll showed a 20% spike. From 2007 to 2008 payroll and revenue were both declining on a parallel course reflecting the economic downturn, but from about 2009 on, payroll and revenue deviate, crisscross, then begin to slowly rise in unison from about 2011 to the present. In her well articulated piece, Thurm makes the argument that while many teams have cut back (even in the wake of record profits), others have used this money to dramatically increase their payrolls. She cites teams like the Nationals and Detroit as examples. Personally I don’t see it so much. While I can see the argument derived from the second graph where payroll and revenue seem to follow parallel trajectories, there are two major deviations on that graph where payroll was far below revenue, and there are also teams like the Marlins that continually appear to invest a far smaller percentage relative to revenue growth.

Teams like the Mets on the other hand, which were one of Boras’ culprits, have cut back repeatedly over the past 4 years while media proceeds have risen. The Mets received an estimated 60 million last year for their share of MLB’s national media dollars, their SNY network continues to appreciate and continues to generate revenue, they play in NY, and yet the team’s payroll ranked 19th out of 30 teams.

The odd conclusion here is that for some teams, the market dynamic isn’t responding the way it’s supposed to. Many small market teams are making out like bandits while teams like the Mets aren’t faring well at all. The Mets should not be losing money, they should not have had trouble managing their debt and they should be awash in cash as they reside in the biggest baseball market in the world, but the Wilpons were so damaged by losses through their association with Madoff and the depreciation of their real estate holdings, and they accumulated such a massive debt load from their new stadium, they reached a point where they were unable to invest in payroll on a level commensurate with the rest of Major League baseball. In retrospect, the lack of any semblance of prudent economic foresight demonstrated by Met ownership is truly astonishing. To add to their problems the Mets’ massive market wasn’t (still isn’t) helping them at the gate, as fans simply stopped showing up. Revenue continued to spiral down and here we are looking at a crappy on-field product, empty stands and a seemingly perpetual limited budget.

Eventually the Wilpons may be pressed into boosting payroll if they are to get themselves off of Boras’ list. No matter how much media money they manage to procur, if they keep losing money at the gate my guess is they’ll eventually have to sell the team. Sure, maybe the small marketers will herald a Met turnaround generated via their resurgent farm system, but barring that, the Wilpons are going to have to splurge. The striking thing about Boras’ list is that with the exception of the Rays and the Braves, every team on it has had a losing record over the period of time referenced on the chart. Clearly, teams that cut salary don’t fare well. The Mets simply can not keep pace with the rest of the league if during a time of plenty they continue to impose restrictions. At some point they’re going to have to invest if they’re to bring the fans back, even if it means betting the house.

Two teams that are undergoing a rebuilding process, the Mets and Marlins, hooked up for a three game series in Miami with Fish winning two and the Mets salvaging the finale. Most Met fans realize (I think) we’re looking at 2015 and beyond. While Marlins fans remain shellshocked by the stripping down of their team in only their second season in a new ballpark, Mets fans may need seven years or more before we can begin to talk about things like championships and pennants. Here are the 3 & 3 from this series, with a unique 3 Down, all occurring in a single inning.

Jordany Juices One: Jordany Valdespin gets the top slot with his pinch-hit three-run homer on Wednesday afternoon. JV1l is an exciting ballplayer who brings both speed and power to the plate. You have to wonder, with the Mets offense struggling the way it is, why Valdy isn’t getting more playing time.

A Gem By Jeremy: On Tuesday night, Jeremy Hefner took a shutout into the ninth inning before being undone by poor umpiring and poor catching (more on that below). Big question here is why did Terry even take Hefner out in the ninth inning?

Harvey Hangs In: Matt Harvey did not look sharp in Monday night’s series opener. Much to Matt’s credit though, he hung in there, bore down, and gave the Mets a quality start. That’s what front of the rotation pitchers do.

Where Was Bobby: Going back to the Hefner start on Tuesday night, if I’m the manager Bobby Parnell pitches in that ninth inning. I don’t care what he did the night before, he’s my closer. He’s a young guy who doesn’t need to be babied and he needed to be out there. End of story.

Time To Retire Tim: In the ninth inning Tuesday night, third base umpire Tim McClelland clearly missed the call. The base runner’s foot was clearly off the bag and Wright tagged him out. The SNY replay even went so far to show that McClelland was out of position to make the call. Let’s also give a thumbs down to Keith & Gary who at first thought McClelland got the call right and quickly reversed themselves. McClelland has been an ump for 30 years, and it may be time to say good bye.

What A Reck: The ninth inning yet again on Tuesday night!! Recker was charged with a passed ball, then was unable to block the game winning wild pitch. Recker hasn’t had too much playing time this season, so it’s somewhat understandable. Here’s what I don’t understand… Why didn’t Terry change the battery in the ninth? According to Josh Lewin on WFAN, John Buck wanted to play, and was doing leg exercises in the clubhouse before the game. Maybe it’s me, but when the team is struggling and taking a lead into the ninth inning, I want my best guys out there.

Well, the fun is just starting as the Mets head to the house of horrors known as Turner Field on Friday, and a smoking hot Atlanta Braves team. Lets hope for the best, but expect the worse, and oh yeah, Let’s Go Mets!!

Despite the incredible effort by Jeremy Hefner on Tuesday night, the Mets were unable to get just three more outs as a ninth inning meltdown capped off by a Brandon Lyon wild pitch handed the Marlins their second straight walk-off victory against the Amazin’s and their first series win of the season.

Surprisingly enough, the Mets have become quite used to the demoralizing oddity known as the walk-off wild pitch. In fact, last night was the third time in four seasons that Flushing’s Finest have allowed the game-winning run to score on a pitch to the backstop.

On May 14 of the 2010 season, Johan Santana was on the mound in a premiere matchup with then-Marlins ace Josh Johnson. Santana went seven innings allowing just one unearned run on six hits and seven strikeouts. He left for a pinch-hitter with the game tied at one. After pitching a scoreless eighth, reliever Fernando Nieve took the hill to pitch a perfect ninth to send the game into extra innings. After getting Jorge Cantu to fly to left for the first out of the tenth, Nieve walked Cody Ross and quickly allowed a Ronny Paulino single to put Ross at third. Then on the first pitch to Dan Uggla, Nieve bounced it to the plate past Rod Barajas as Ross raced home to win it for the Marlins. The walk-off wild pitch would be the first victory for the Fish in what would be a four game sweep of the Mets.

Fast forward two years to July of 2012… Jon Niese is having a heck of a game against the Nationals Ross Detwiler. They both exit after seven, Niese surrendering one run and punching out eight, Detwiler spotless, giving the Nats a 1-0 advantage. They would go up 2-0 after a Steve Lombardozzi RBI double. Comes the top of the ninth, the Mets put up a three spot to go ahead 3-2. However the lead would be short lived as Bobby Parnell would blow the save, allowing the Nats to tie it and send it to extra innings. Josh Thole doubled to drive in Daniel Murphy and give the Amazin’s their second lead in as many innings. Tim Byrdak came on to close out the tenth and after a game tying, RBI triple to the rookie sensation Bryce Harper, he walked the bases loaded and was lifted for Pedro Beato. Beato, on a 1-2 pitch to Tyler Moore, threw a breaking ball that went right past Josh Thole, allowing Ryan Zimmerman to slide home and win it for the Nats by a score of 5-4.

Then we have last night. A suddenly hot Jeremy Hefner came in to finish off a shutout, and came away with a loss as both the tying and go-ahead runs were charged to the 27-year old despite a meltdown by Brandon Lyon capped off by a wild pitch of his own that bounced off the glove of Anthony Recker and ricocheted towards the home dugout.

Before this recent stretch, the last time the Mets lost a ballgame on a walk-off wild pitch dates back all the way to 1981 when Mike Marshall let one fly at Houston. You have to go all the way back to the beginning of the Reagan administration for that one! Meanwhile all three of these most recent “wild” endings have occurred under the same commander in chief. 

Not a theme the Mets would like to continue, however with the quality–or lack there of–of arms they continue to acquire for the ‘pen, what can you expect? Sure Brandon Lyon is supposed to be a solid set-up man, however that hasn’t been the case up to this point. You get what you pay for; you get out of it what you put in. When you don’t go and add significant arms for innings seven through nine and beyond, losses such as those mentioned above are going to happen.

Just call him Mr. Clutch or as our own Daniel Nelson likes to refer to him, “El Dramatico”. Yes, of course we’re talking about the incredible Jordany Valdespin who came off the bench once again and delivered another dramatic pinch-hit home run to help the Mets beat the Marlins 7-6 and salvage the final game of the series.

Valdespin continues to display an uncanny ability for rising to the occasion whenever the Mets need a big hit, and in the last two seasons, no player in baseball has delivered more pinch-hit home runs than El Dramatico.

His five pinch-hit homers last season set a franchise record, and only one month into the season he’s already launched his second big knock of the year.

The Mets were trailing by three when David Wright opened the sixth with a leadoff double. Marlon Byrd followed with an RBI single and after another Ike Davis single, Valdespin took reliever A.J. Ramos deep with three-run homer. It was incredible and even more so was watching Spin pumping his fist as he rounded the bases. It put the Mets up 5-4.

An inning later, the Mets would tack on two more runs thanks to a two-run double by John Buck who begins the month of May the much in the same way he ended April. Buck now leads the league with 27 RBI.

David Wright had a great game with a dazzling play at third base and he homered, singled, and doubled at the plate.

Dillon Gee started the game and delivered a very rocky performance in which he was tagged for four runs on nine hits and two walks. It could have been worse if not for some nifty plays in the field.

Things got dicey in the bottom of the seventh when Lucas Duda misplayed a fly ball by Justin Ruggiano off reliever Scott Atchison allowing two more Marlins run to score and make the score 7-6. But the bullpen held down the fort the rest of the way, and Bobby Parnell pitched a 1-2-3 ninth inning to seal the victory and end the Mets’ six game losing streak. For Parnell it was his third save of the season.

This wasn’t a picture perfect win, but after a week of grim and disheartening losses, I’ll take it. After a day off on Thursday, the Mets will head to Atlanta to begin a weekend series with the Braves on Friday night at Turner Field. Shaun Marcum will make his second start of the season and will oppose the Braves’ Mike Minor at 7:05 pm.

KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSER!

Team News and Notes

Atlanta Braves (17-9)

Justin Upton launched his major league leading 12th home run of the season this week. He hit just 17 a year ago, and is currently on pace to shatter his career high of 31 back in 2011. The same can’t be said for his brother B.J. Upton, who has just three home runs, and is hitting a paltry .143 on the season. Freddie Freeman has not made much of an impact since returning from the DL eight games ago, as the first baseman has just one extra base hit during that span. The great start to the season by Paul Maholm came to an abrupt end in his last start. The lefty took his minuscule 1.03 ERA into Detroit, and was battered around to the tune of eight earned runs, and left with a 3.30 ERA. Tim Hudson earned the 200th win of his career on Tuesday, as he pitched a gem against the Nationals. Hudson continues to pitch well despite being 37-years of age, and owns a career record of 200-105.

Washington Nationals (13-14)

How scary is Bryce Harper? Harper hit 22 home runs in his rookie season, and is already almost half way there with nine, and we are only one month into the season. The 20-year-old has been on a tear of late, hitting .353, with four home runs, seven RBI, four doubles, and a triple over his last 11 games. Harper leads the team with a .344 batting average. The Nationals had an injury scare with Stephen Strasburg, and pulled him early from his last start due to forearm tightness. The big guy says he will make his next start, but the Nats might take precautions and skip a start. The Nationals who were expected to be a powerhouse team, continue to struggle, and are under .500 after one month of the season.

Philadelphia Phillies (12-15)

The Phillies starting catcher Carlos Ruiz returned to the lineup on Sunday after missing 25 games due to an amphetamine suspension. The Phillies backstop had a great year in 2012, hitting .325 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI. Delmon Young was activated from the DL on Tuesday, and had two hits including a home run in his season debut. Ryan Howard has been heating up of late, and is showing flashes of his old self. Over his last eight games, the lefty slugger has a .300/.290/.633 slash, with two home runs, 10 RBI, and four doubles. Kyle Kendrick is quietly having one of the best seasons on the Phillies pitching staff. He recently completed a three-hit shut out against the Mets, and owns a tidy 2.41 ERA through five starts to begin the year. Roy Halladay was rolling until he ran into Cleveland on Tuesday, and lasted just 3.2 innings, giving up eight earned runs. I was going to say that he was almost all the way back this week, but apparently he’s not.

Miami Marlins (8-19)

Marlins stud outfielder Giancarlo Stanton was beginning to come around, as he finally tallied his first home run of the season this past week. Stanton was red hot before he strained his hamstring on Monday, as he finally turned the power on hitting three jacks, while also driving in eight runs.  The rest of the Marlins remain in a coma offensively, ranking at the bottom of the majors in home runs, runs, and RBI. Jose Fernandez hasn’t made it into the fifth inning in two of his last three starts, while Kevin Slowey leads the team with a 2.15 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

Injury Report

Nationals: Stephen Strasburg might miss his next start, after being pulled from his most recent outing with forearm tightness. Ryan Zimmerman is ready to play in rehab games, and after a few tune ups this week, he should be activated from the DL on Friday. Jayson Werth was out of the lineup on Tuesday, as he is dealing with hamstring and ankle ailments. Wilson Ramos was activated from the DL on April 29. Reliever Christian Garcia remains on the DL with partial tear in his forearm.

Braves: Jason Heyward who was placed on the DL after having an appendectomy on last Monda, is hoping for a late-May return. Brian McCann (offseason shoulder surgery) began a rehab assignment on Friday, and is all goes well will be activated on May 6.. Jonny Venters (elbow) will begin throwing on Tuesday. Brandon Beachy (Tommy John surgery) is still recovering and could return by midseason.

Phillies: Delmon Young made his return to the lineup a little earlier than expected, as he was activated on April 30. John Lanna remains on the DL, and could miss 6-8 weeks due to a strained quad.

Marlins:  Giancarlo Stanton was placed on the DL with a grade 2 strain of his hamstring, which should sideline him a minimum of three weeks. Joe Mahoney was also placed on the DL with a hamstring injury. Adeiny Hechavarria was placed on the DL with a bruised elbow, is ready to begin rehab games. Casey Kotchman who is on the DL with a strained hamstring may return by mid-May. Logan Morrison is recovering from a torn patella tendon that required surgery last September, is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment on May 10. Henderson Alvarez is throwing and could return by early May, while Nathan Eovaldi remains out indefinitely, and was transferred to the 60-day DL.

Upcoming Schedules (4/29-5/5) 

Nationals: (ATL, 4/29-5/2), (@PIT, 5/3-5/5)

Braves: (WSH, 4/29-5/2), (NYM, 5/3-5/5)

Phillies: (@CLE, 4/30-5/31), (MIA, 5/2-5/5)

Marlins: (@MIN, 4/29-5/1) (@PHI, 5/2-5/5)

 Starting Lineups

Game Notes

• The Mets’ losing streak has reached six games after the club failed to protect a one-run lead with three outs remaining for a second straight day at Marlins Park. It matches their longest losing streak of the 2012 season. They are now in fourth place in the NL East, just two games ahead of the last place Marlins.They are 1-6 in one-run decisions this season and have dropped five straight one-run games.
• Adam Rubin reports that Collins is giving serious consideration to getting Justin Turner into the lineup as an outfielder. Collins opted to leave Turner out of the lineup today rather than have his first taste of the outfield come in a spacious ballpark with tricky outfield walls. Wow… Looks like this might happen.
• Terry Collins is pissed. ”I’m pissed off. I’m extremely pissed off,” the Mets manager said after last night’s game. “They’re playing as hard as they can. Everyone’s is struggling with the way things are going. We have to fight through it. This is what the game is about. You have to act like a man, you have to act like a pro and get out here and get ready to play tomorrow.”
• Rubin also says that Collins may be toeing the party line when he said that he is pleased with the Mets’ approach at the plate, despite the recent futility. The Mets have scored three or fewer runs in eight of their past 12 games.

Game Preview

The Mets try to put this Marlins series out of its misery this afternoon as they play the get away game / salvage game today. Even though there was a terrible call last night at third base in 9th inning that cost Hefner his gem of a game, the real blame of the game falls on offense. The bats have fallen completely silent to the point that during this losing streak everyone in the lineup is under-performing. Here’s hoping last night was enough of a fire to spark this offense, which is as spark-able as wet wood right now. Dillon Gee gets the start today vs Wade LeBlanc.

Dillon Gee is 1-4 this season over 5 starts with a 5.96 ERA over 25.2 innings. He is starting to look like a better pitcher. He had a scoreless outing two starts ago and last time out he was cruising with the exception of one inning. He hasn’t faced the Marlins since 2011, back then he was 1-0 over 2 games while allowing 4 ER over 11.0 innings. The Marlins have the following numbers against Gee:

Polanco 2-12
Pierre 2-6
Dobbs 1-3, HR
Stanton 1-5, HR

Wade LeBlanc looks to keep the Mets bats depressed. On the season, Wade is 0-4 over 5 games with a 6.20 ERA over 24.2 innings of work. In his last three games, he’s allowed 13 ER over 13.2 innings. Last year he was pretty good against the Mets allowing 3 runs, 2 earned over 11 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Wade:

Wright 6-10, HR
Tejada 1-7
Murphy 4-8, HR
Davis 3-7, HR
Buck 0-3
Duda 2-3

Lets Go Mets! (Please, just win)

Starting Lineups

Game Notes

Last night’s 15-inning game was the longest in Mets-Marlins history. The two teams had played two 12-inning contests, last on September 6, 2011 when the Mets won 7-4 in Miami. Last night’s game was the longest in club history since a 2-1 win over the Cardinals in a 20-inning affair on April 17, 2010 in St. Louis. New York is 1-2 in extra frames this year after going 3-7 last year.

John Buck hit his ninth home run of the year last night, tying a major league record for home runs by a catcher before the end of April. Johnny Bench (1971 Reds) and Charles Johnson (2001 Marlins) also clocked nine home runs before May 1. Buck’s nine home runs tie him for the most by a Met during the month of April with Carlos Delgado (2006) and Dave Kingman (1976).

Met catchers combined to hit five home runs last year after hitting six home runs in 2011. New York catchers combined had 17 home runs in 2010, led by Rod Barajas, who had 12. John Buck had 12 home runs and 41 RBI last year for the Marlins in 106 games.

Collin Cowgill said he misread Rob Brantley’s swing in the ninth inning and initially stepped backward on a ninth-inning fly ball that dropped in front of him. The critical miscue put the tying run on third base and ultimately played a large part in Bobby Parnell suffering a blown save in the ultimate 4-3, 15-inning loss to the the Miami Marlins.

New York has scored three or fewer runs in seven of its last 11 games and is hitting .193 (72-373) over that span. Overall, the Mets are sixth in the majors scoring 4.92 runs per game.

New York went 1-18 with runners in scoring position last night. Over the five-game losing streak, the club is batting .105 (4-38) with RISP. Overall, the Mets are fifth in the NL and 10th in the majors with a .269 (54-201) batting average with runners in scoring position. The club has eight home runs in such situations, tied for the fourth-most in the majors.

The Mets left 14 runners on base last night and over their last five games have stranded 38 runners. New York ranks 16th in the majors with 170 runners left on base.

Game Preview

Last night’s game was terrible. No way around it. The Mets got a good start from Harvey who didn’t have his best stuff, but left the game with the lead. The bullpen only faltered twice from that point, which was amazing because they had to go from the 6th inning until the 15th inning. The Mets bats just went cold, silent and it was just bad. Anyway Hefner gets the start today as he goes against Kevin Slowey.

Jeremy Hefner is coming off of a good start where he pitched 7 innings allowing 1 ER while walking 3 batters and striking out 4. He has now pitched 21.0 innings over 5 starts with a 5.14 ERA. His first start of the season, his second best start, was against the Marlins where he pitched 6.0 innings allowing one earned run while walking 2 and striking out 3. The Marlins have the following numbers against Hefner:

Stanton 1-10
Solano 2-6
Pierre 3-6
Polanco 3-7
Ruggiano 0-5
Dobbs 1-6, HR

The Mets bats will try to find their bats against Kevin Slowey who has been pitching well this season. Over his first five games, he’s 0-2 over 29.2 innings with a 2.43 ERA. He’s coming off of his worst start of the season where he allowed 3 ER over 6 innings of work. He has made one start against the Mets in his career where he allowed 5 ER over 6 innings who have the following numbers against him:

Buck 3-11, 2B
Byrd 1-3
Davis 1-3
Wright 2-3, 2B, HR
Tejada 1-2, 2B

Lets Go Mets!

Starting Lineups

New York Mets

1. Mike Baxter RF
2. Justin Turner 3B
3. Daniel Murphy 2B
4. Lucas Duda LF
5. John Buck C
6. Ike Davis 1B
7. Ruben Tejada SS
8. Jordany Valdespin CF
9. Matt Harvey RHP

Miami Marlins

1. Juan Pierre LF
2. Donovan Solano 2B
3. Giancarlo Stanton RF
4. Placido Polanco 3B
5. Greg Dobbs 1B
6. Justin Ruggiano CF
7. Rob Brantly C
8. Nick Green SS
9. Jose Fernandez RHP

Game Alert!

David Wright is out of the game nursing a stiff neck. He told the team’s training staff about during yesterday’s game, but opted to stay in the game and tough it out. Manager Terry Collins said he didn’t want to push it and make things worse so he decided to have Wright have it checked out and get examined by a doctor, according to Marc Carig of Newsday.

Game Notes

• Catcher John Buck’s 23 RBIs are three shy of Jeff Kent’s team record for RBIs in April, set in 1994.
• Ruben Tejada is hitting .353 over his current five-game hitting streak.
• Wright snapped a 77-game errorless streak — the longest in franchise history for a third baseman and the longest current stretch at the position by a big leaguer — on a ground ball in Sunday’s first inning.
• David Wright ranks fourth in the National League with a .436 on-base percentage and Lucas Duda is fifth with a .429 on-base percentage. New York is tied for fifth in the NL as a team with a .317 on-base percentage.
• Over the weekend Frank Francisco threw 25 pitches in a throwing session and admitted he did not feel great after his outing. Francisco has made two rehab appearances with Single-A St. Lucie since being shutdown early in Spring Training after experiencing discomfort in his elbow.
• Pedro Feliciano had been hospitalized with a severe case of food poisoning, but the Mets hope to have him back on a mound this week. “He’s all good,” agent Melvin Roman told ESPN New York on Sunday about Feliciano’s current status.
• New York is fifth in the majors with a .290 (53-183) batting average with runners in scoring position. The club has eight home runs in such situations, tied for the second-most in the majors. Over the last six games, the Mets are hitting .211 (8-38) with RISP.
• Outfielder Juan Pierre is a .324 career hitter with 74 runs scored against the Mets. His 150 hits against New York are the second-most among active players, trailing only Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins (244).
• Matt Harvey takes the mound in the 7:10 p.m. series opener in Miami against rookie right-hander Jose Fernandez. Harvey is bidding to become the third Mets pitcher to go 5-0 in April, joining Pedro Martinez (2006) and Dwight Gooden (1988).

Game Preview

The Mets try to put last week way, way behind them as they travel south for a road trip to Miami. In the Mets last home stand the Mets started off on a good note take 2 of 3 from the Nationals and then dropping 5 of 6 to the Dodgers and the Phillies. Currently, the Mets are hoping to snap a 4 game losing streak. Luckily, it is Harvey day today as he takes on Jose Fernandez in another stellar young pitcher match up.

Harvey is coming off of his worst start of the season where he still was quality allowing 3 ER over 6 innings and the Mets still ended up winning the game thanks to a walk off grand slam from Valdespin. It also was the also the last time the Mets won a game. On the season, Harvey is 4-0 over 5 starts and 35.0 innings with a 1.54 ERA while he walked 10 BB with 39 strikeouts. This will be Harvey’s first start against the Marlins and the only Marlins who have faced Harvey are Pierre (2-6) and Polanco (0-1). The Mets booth added yesterday that Harvey’s most difficult task tonight will be Stanton (not a surprise) but Stanton has slider power, so if Harvey powers him with fastballs, he should be fine.

The Mets will be meeting Jose Fernandez for the second time this season. Fernandez is 0-2 this season with a 4.50 ERA over 4 games and 20.0 innings. In that stretch he walked 8 batters and struck out 19 batters. In his debut against the Mets he allowed 1 ER over 5.0 innings. In his first two starts he allowed only 1 ER over 11.0 IP. In his last two starts he has allowed 9 ER. The Mets have the following numbers against Fernandez:

Cowgill 0-3
Baxter 0-2
Davis 0-1
Duda 0-2
Murphy 1-2
Recker 1-2, 2B
Tejada 1-2

Lets go Mets!

In last weekend’s edition of 3&3, I cautioned to watch out for a Dodger’s team that was struggling. That warning should have been extended to this weekend’s series with the Phillies as well. Against two teams that have been struggling, our Mets finished 1-5. Looks like our team is fast becoming a cure to another team’s slump.

3 UP

• Kyle’s Complete Game: We don’t like giving and “Ups” to the opposition, especially the Phillies, but let’s be fair, Kyle Kendrick pitched a heck of a game on Friday night (complete game, three hitter). Kendrick was so good, every Met at-bat looked as if the Mets had 10PM dinner reservations.
• Jon & Gee Deserved Better: Dillon Gee looked pretty good on Friday until he hit a bump in the road in the sixth inning. Aside from that he pitched well. That’s two consecutive good outings for Gee. On Sunday, Jon Niese also deserved a better fate, but sloppy play and a lack of offense did him in. That’s too bad, both Niese and Gee pitched good enough to win.
• We Lost Our Edge: Josh Edgin, who in my opinion needed to go, was sent to Binghamton. Mets’ brass say they wanted to keep him close, but I’m betting they wanted him to avoid the heavy hitting in the PCL. Terry Collins was quoted as saying he wants Edgin to be able to get here fast. Okay. I can’t think of a good reason the Mets would need a pitcher so quickly that they couldn’t wait for him to fly in from Vegas. Then again, it’s kind of messed up to have your AAA team on the other side of the country.

3 Down

• Diddley From Davis: Seems like a series doesn’t go by that we don’t mention the lack of productivity from Ike Davis. We gave him a break last year, what with the broken ankle, and the Rocky Mountain Fever, but come on, through the first month of the season Davis has done nothing. The Mets tell us 2014 err 2015 is supposed to be the year, but will, or should Davis still be here? The Mets may not be saying anything in public, but privately, they have to be worried. You can’t have your first baseman sleepwalking through April and May year after year.
• Busted Bullpen: In Metland they talk about how the Mets lead the league in runs scored. Then they say how bad the bullpen has been, which is why we are now three games under .500. Is it expecting too much for a guy to come into the game for one inning, or one batter, and be effective?! This bullpen is beyond a joke, and a complete disaster. It’s a reality horror show.
• Two Games, Six Hits: This weekend series featured two games in which the Mets mustered only three hits. In all fairness, the Phillies have some good pitching, but come on already. The Mets need to amp it up and stop relying on John Buck every night. Ike has been horrible, Murph’s bat has cooled off, Wright has just two home runs, and there has been terrible production from the outfield save Jordany Valdespin. The Mets need to produce every day, and everyone needs to start contributing.

The Mets now head south to visit fellow doormats, the Miami Marlins. Matt Harvey will pitch the opener tonight, but after that who know’s what to expect.

KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSER!

Team News and Notes

Atlanta Braves (13-5)

After starting the season 12-1, the Braves have dropped four of their last five games, including three in a row to the Pittsburgh Pirates. On Monday, the Braves joined the Mets as the next team to have their games in Colorado postponed due to snow, and will play a doubleheader on Tuesday. Freddie Freeman returns to the lineup after missing time with an oblique injury. Jason Heyward was hitting just .121 before his appendectomy last night, and B.J. Upton is still batting .167. The pitching staff has three starters with ERA’s of 2.16 or lower starting with Kris Medlen, Paul Maholm at 1.03, and Mike Minor leads the club at 0.95. The Braves lead the majors in home runs with 29, mainly due to their new stud outfielder Justin Upton, who has nine. The Braves also lead the majors with a WHIP of 1.09 and a team ERA of 2.36.

Washington Nationals (10-9)

The Nationals promoted top prospect Anthony Rendon after learning that they would have to place Ryan Zimmerman on the DL. Stephen Strasburg‘s numbers look good, but he has a record of 1-3 to start the season, including being out-dueled by Matt Harvey on Friday night.  Gio Gonzalez has pitched poorly to start the year with a 5.85 ERA, while Ross Detwiler leads the team at 0.90. Bryce Harper continues to lead the charge offensively, leading the team in home runs with seven, and RBI with 14.

Philadelphia Phillies (9-11)

The Phillies continue to struggle as they remain under .500 after 20 games to start the season. Chase Utley is the only player producing right now, and he leads the team with three home runs and 15 RBI. Ryan Howard has struggled, and has just one home run in 18 games, while Michael Young has been a nice addition leading the team with a .333 batting average. On the mound, the Phils called up their fourth overall prospect, RHP Jonathan Pettibone, to replace the injured John Lannan in the rotation. After giving up 13 earned runs in his first two starts on the year, Cole Hamels has allowed just four earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts. Roy Halladay appears to have gotten back on track, allowing just three earned runs in 17 innings over his last two outings.

Miami Marlins (4-15)

Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton returned to the Marlins lineup last Thursday after missing a week with a shoulder injury. He is just 4-for-18 since returning and remains homerless, but did get his first RBI of the season on Monday. Stanton is batting an unsightly .188/.316/.229 with no home runs, one RBI, two doubles, and has struck out 20 times in 38 at-bats. Jose Fernandez got his first real taste of the majors in his last start, when he lasted just four innings, giving up five runs on six hits, while walking three and striking out four. The Marlins offense continues to sputter, as they have just six home runs and only 41 RBI as a team, which are the lowest totals in the majors. Miami also had their game against the Minnesota Twins postponed Monday, and will play a doubleheader on Tuesday.

Injury Report

Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman was placed on the DL with a strain of his left hamstring. Wilson Ramos, who is also dealing with a strain of his left hamstring, is improving after being placed on the DL on April 14. He is expected to return when he is eligible to come off at the end of the month. Reliever Christian Garcia remains on the DL with partial tear in his forearm.

Braves: Jason Heyward is out indefinitely after having an appendectomy on Monday. Brian McCann (offseason shoulder surgery) remains on the DL, and the veteran backstop felt some tenderness in his wrist last week right before he was set to begin a rehab assignment. Jonny Venters (elbow) remains shut down for four weeks as of April 2, and may be out for the first two months. Brandon Beachy (Tommy John surgery) is still recovering and could return by midseason.

Phillies: Delmon Young (ankle) is progressing nicely and may be able to start a rehab stint as early as next week. His May return still remains on target. John Lannan was placed on the DL, could miss 6-8 weeks due to a strained quad.

Marlins:  Adeiny Hechavarria was placed on the DL with a bruised elbow, and should return in two weeks. Casey Kotchman who was placed on the DL, retroactive to April 4, with a strained hamstring is nearing his return. Logan Morrison is currently on the 60-day DL, as he recovers from a torn patella tendon that required surgery last September. Henderson Alvarez is throwing and could return by early May, while Nathan Eovaldi remains out indefinitely, and was transferred to the 60-day DL.

Upcoming Schedules (4/12-4/28) 

Nationals: (STL, 4/22-4/24), (CIN, 4/25-4/28)

Braves: (@COL, 4/22-4/24), (@DET, 4/26-4/28)

Phillies: (PIT, 4/22-4/25), (@NYM, 4/26-4/28)

Marlins: (@MIN, 4/22-4-23) (@CHC, 4/25-4/28)

Suspensions

Carlos Ruiz: The Phillies backstop is due to return from his 25-game amphetamine suspension this coming Sunday.

KEEP YOUR ENEMIES CLOSER!

Team News and Notes

Atlanta Braves (12-1)

The Braves continue to plow over any team in their way, as they are thoroughly dominating their opponents and remain in first place in the NL East. The Braves tomahawked the reigning NL East champs in Washington this past weekend, with a clean sweep of their three game series, while outscoring them to the tune of 18-4. Justin Upton continues to lead the club in many of the major offensive categories, batting .340/.404/.900 with eight homers, 12 RBI, and 13 runs scored. On the mound, Paul Maholm has surprised everyone with his incredible start to the season, as he now has run his scoreless streak to 20.1 innings with a record of 3-0. Atlanta was 7-0 this past week, and is currently riding a 10-game winning streak. .

Washington Nationals (8-6)

With a team of budding young stars, such as Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman usually flies under the radar. So far Zimmerman has been the Nats best pitcher, with a record of 3-0, a 2.45 ERA, and one complete game. Rafael Soriano may be a lock for 40 saves this year, as he already has nailed down five just two weeks into the season. Jayson Werth is hot to start the year batting .309/.333/.491 with three home runs and eight RBI. Harper holds the team lead in home runs with five.

Philadelphia Phillies (6-7)

Roy Halladay rebounded from two awful outings to start the year, and tossed eight innings of one-run ball in Sunday’s 2-1 win over the Marlins. It was a step in the right direction, but it was still the Marlins, and they did not have Giancarlo Stanton in the lineup. Cliff Lee stayed hot to start to the year holding a current ERA of 1.52 through three starts. Cole Hamels fared much better in his third start, going six innings and giving up just one earned run. On offense, Chase Utley is batting .294/.339/.588 as he continues his resurgence. He leads the Phillies in home runs with three and RBI with 12.

Miami Marlins (3-11)

Marlins young prodigy Jose Fernandez remains the lone bright spot in an otherwise dismal start the 2013 season. Fernandez followed up his five inning nine strikeout debut with a six scoreless innings in his second outing, and currently owns a 0.82 ERA. The Marlins offense has sputtered to begin the season, and to date, only have two home runs as a team. The injury to Giancarlo Stanton‘s left shoulder has kept him out of the lineup since last Wednesday, although batting .167/.342/.233 before the injury wasn’t helping matters much.

Injury Report

Nationals: Wilson Ramos landed on the DL on April 14 due to a let hamstring strain. He is expected to return when he is eligible to come off at the end of the month. Reliever Christian Garcia is on the DL with partial tear in his forearm tendon.

Braves: Brian McCann (offseason shoulder surgery) was supposed to begin catching in extended spring training games on Wednesday or Thursday, and possibly start a rehab stint next week. However, the veteran backstop felt some tenderness in his wrist and will now be having an MRI instead. Jonny Venters (elbow) remains shut down for four weeks as of April 2, and may be out for the first two months. Brandon Beachy (Tommy John surgery) is still recovering and could return by midseason. Freddie Freeman who was placed on the DL with a strained oblique on April 7, recently took pain free 30 swings and could possibly be due back when he is eligible.

Phillies: Delmon Young (ankle) is progressing nicely and may be able to start a rehab stint as early as next week. His May return remains on target.

Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton has been out since last Wednesday because of a left shoulder contusion. An MRI showed no structural damage, but he is still feeling discomfort, and remains day-to-day and will test his shoulder on Tuesday. Casey Kotchman was placed on the DL, retroactive to April 4, with a strained hamstring. Logan Morrison is currently on the 60-day DL, as he recovers from a torn patella tendon that required surgery last September. Henderson Alvarez and Nathan Eovaldi are both on the DL with right shoulder inflammation. Alvarez threw a 15-pitch bullpen session on April 13, and could return by early May, while Eovaldi remains out indefinitely.

Upcoming Schedules (4/8-4/14) 

Nationals: (@MIA, 4/6-4/17), (@NYM, 4/19-4/21)

Braves: (KC, 4/16-4/117), (@PIT, 4/18-4/21)

Phillies: (@CIN, 4/15-4/17), (STL, 4/18-4/21)

Marlins: (WSH, 4/16-4-17) (@CIN, 4/18-4/21)

Suspensions

Carlos Ruiz: The Phillies backstop has 12 games remaining to serve his 25-game suspension.

After discussing my earlier post with me on Twitter, Mike Newman of FanGraphs conducted his own polling to one of the largest trafficked sports sites on the web. There are the results.

My conclusion?

Too many Mets fans are prospect drunk…

I would speculate that a similar poll on MMO would be somewhere in the middle with the majority of them pulling the trigger on such a deal without hesitation.

Original Post 9:00 AM

I am well aware of how every Mets’ site has their own readership of Mets fans, especially so when it comes to their commenting community, for those few sites like ours fortunate to have a steady commenting community. The differences are stark.

I was very surprised this morning when I saw the results on a poll Mets Blog took yesterday on if they would swap prospects d’Arnaud and Wheeler in exchange for Giancarlo Stanton. Actually, the word “surprised” might be a bit too mild, I think “stunned” would be a better choice.

Wow, almost two thirds would say NO to the younger and more established Stanton who is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

“In a heartbeat,” said one Mets official, who is not in general manager Sandy Alderson’s inner-circle of decision makers but has a voice in discussions. “Nothing against those kids, but it’s Giancarlo.”

Stanton put up those gaudy numbers at ages 20-22. He just turned 23 and is still four years away from his prime 5-6 years of peak production.

I asked no less than – I don’t know – 10-12 different media types from Rosenthal to Callis to Heyman and not one said they wouldn’t pull the trigger. I asked three Mets players who requested to remain anonymous and one said, “Do you really have to ask?”

That is the majority sentiment on MMO as well. That poll up there just showed me the difference between MetsBlog regulars and Mets Merized Online regulars. The two couldn’t be more different.

Almost 75% of MetsBlog readers would rather keep the two unknown quantities rather than adding a proven 23-year old superstar even under the current Mets outfield situation… Wow!

To all of our MMO daily readers… All 16,000 of you… Well 17,000 if you just go by Monday… Have I ever told you how much I love you? :-)

I think it’s cool that when hot button issues come up like this one, that we have two megalithic sites for Mets fans that offer a nice contrast and together comprise the whole of the entire fan base.

Original Post 3/11

The Mets “retain an unfilled craving for a marquee outfielder,” writes Andy Martino of the Daily News.

Martino says that the team is monitoring star outfielders such as Giancarlo Stanton of the Marlins and Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies.

One Mets person told Martino “there is heat there,” in regard to the team having a preliminary discussion with the Marlins about Stanton, suggesting serious interest.

There is no evidence that GMs Sandy Alderson and Larry Beinfest have discussed a Stanton deal, only speculation. But it does sound like there’s some serious interest on both sides.

This adds to what Ken Davidoff of the New York Post said in a different report yesterday, where he said Stanton, Gonzalez and Andre Ethier are among seven outfielders the Mets might consider acquiring this season or next winter. I didn’t much care for the other four outfielders on his list. Soriano? No thanks.

If the Mets are truly serious and this isn’t just them blowing some smoke up our behinds, they must know it would cost them likely two of their top prospects, namely starting pitcher Zack Wheeler and catcher Travis D’Arnaud.

Surprisingly, someone close to Alderson’s told Martino the the Mets GM does not have any particular attachment to either of those players, simply because he traded for them.

The Mets had already considered, but then declined on trading Wheeler to get Justin Upton or Wil Myers, during the Winter Meetings.

There’s nothing  close here so don’t get the wrong idea. But usually where there’s smoke there’s fire so let’s keep an eye on this.

That said, the Mets obviously need a marquee outfielder and they have to stop playing pretend with this current group of flawed outfielders, many of whom wouldn’t be starting on a lot of teams not named the Mets.

Amazing Matt: Matt Harvey pitched the series opener on Monday night, and was spectacular once again. Harvey went seven innings giving up only one run. So far this season Matt is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 19 (yes 19), strikeouts. Truth be told, I missed Monday night’s game in favor of a Fleetwood Mac concert, but it’s becoming pretty apparent that any Matt Harvey start has got to be Must See TV for Met fans.

What The Buck? The John Buck home run parade continued this week, with Buck going yard in all three games. Who would have expected it? It’s the great thing about baseball, expect the unexpected.

What Up Dude? Lucas Duda hit two home runs on Wednesday night, and although Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox, it looked like Duda clobbered the ball both times. This is supposed to be the make it or break season for Duda. Let’s hope he makes it.

Gee Gets an F: Dillon Gee took the mound Tuesday night. Watching him pitch reminded me of the old Bugs Bunny cartoon with the Gas House Gorillas. Gee couldn’t get anyone out, going only three innings and giving up seven runs. It looked even worse than that… Not a good outing at all.

What The Heff? According to our guys on SNY, in his last outing against the Phillies last season, Jeremy Hefner gave up seven runs without retiring a better. In that context, last night’s outing was an improvement. Hefner, like Gee went three innings giving up five runs. The first inning was a horror, but things did get slightly better for Hefner.

Reality Check: After winning two series against the Padres and Marlins, Met fans were riding high. But when the level of competition increased, we got a nasty reality check. Looking at the National League, the “elite” teams are the Nationals, Braves, Reds, Giants, and Dodgers. The weakest teams are our Mets (sorry), the Marlins, Cubs, Padres and Rockies. For the Mets to turn the corner, they have to start winning series from the better teams. As Met fans, this is what we have signed up for. We have to be patient and watch this team evolve. A big thing to watch for is how both Hefner and Gee do in their next outings (Colorado?). Stay tuned.

Off to Minnesota with an 8:00 PM start on Friday, 4:00 PM on Saturday, and 2:00 PM on Sunday.

BUY METS TICKETS!

KEEP YOUR FRIENDS CLOSE AND YOUR ENEMIES CLOSER!

Team News and Notes

Atlanta Braves (6-1)

The Braves currently sit in first place in the NL East, and new addition Justin Upton is a major reason why. The 25-year-old has batted .423/.448/1.192 to start the season, with six bombs and eight RBI. The other half of the Upton brothers, B.J., has struggled to hit himself out of a barn batting just .120 to date. On the mound, the wily veteran Tim Hudson is back to work with a record of 1-0, and a 3.27 ERA to start the year. Paul Maholm hasn’t given up a run in 12 2/3 innings, and Mike Minor was solid in his first start as well, while youngster Julio Teheran struggled.   

Washington Nationals (4-2)

Bryce Harper was the story during the opening week as he belted three home runs, including two on Opening Day. Stephen Strasburg fired seven shutout innings on Opening Day, but got roughed up for six earned runs in his second start. Gio Gonzalez, Ross Detwiler, and Jordan Zimmerman all went six innings in their starts and allowed just one earned run combined. 

Philadelphia Phillies (2-5)

Opening Day starter Cole Hamels got pounded over his first two starts of the season, giving up an astounding 13 earned runs over his 10 innings of work. Conversely, Cliff Lee twirled an eight inning gem, allowing just two hits and striking out eight in his first start. Ryan Howard has started out slow, batting .148 with 10 punch-outs in just 27 at-bats. Chase Utley, on the other hand has burst out of the gate on fire. The second baseman is batting .370/.400/.630, with one home run, seven RBI and two doubles. Lastly, are we seeing the beginning of the end for Roy Halladay? The righty has seen a drop in his velocity, and has an unsightly ERA of 14.73 over his first two starts of 2013. 

Miami Marlins (1-6)

The Marlins have stumbled out of the gate, and did not score a run until the second inning of their third game of the season. Giancarlo Stanton has struggled with little support around him, and is batting .174/.367/.261 with no home runs or RBI, and just one run scored. Jose Fernandez made his debut against the Mets on Sunday, and dazzled for the first five innings, striking out eight, but received a no-decision.

Injury Report

Nationals: Adam LaRoche is currently day-to-day with a stiff back. Reliever Christian Garcia is on the DL with partial tear in his forearm tendon.

Braves: Jonny Venters (elbow) was shut down for four weeks on April 2, and may be out for the first two months. Brandon Beachy (Tommy John surgery) and Brian McCann (offseason shoulder surgery) were placed on the DL on March 29, both retroactive to March 22.  McCann may start a possible rehab assignment by mid-April, and could be activated by late April, while Beachy could return by midseason. Freddie Freeman was placed on the DL with a strained oblique on April 7, and may need 2-3 weeks to recover.

Phillies: Delmon Young (ankle) played the outfield for the first time this spring on April 1, with the hope that he returns sometime in May.

Marlins: Casey Kotchman was placed on the DL, retroactive to April 4, with a strained hamstring. Logan Morrison is currently on the 60-day DL, as he recovers from a torn patella tendon that required surgery last September. Henderson Alvarez and Nathan Eovaldi are both on the DL with right shoulder inflammation. Alvarez has resumed a throwing program, and could return by early May, while Eovaldi is out indefinitely.

Upcoming Schedules (4/8-4/14) 

Nationals: (CWS, 4/9-4/11), (ATL, 4/12-4/14)

Braves: (@FLA, 4/8-4/10), (@WSH, 4/12-4/14)

Phillies: (NYM, 4/8-4/10), (@MIA, 4/12-4/14)

Marlins: (ATL, 4/8-4-10) (PHI, 4/12-4/14)

Suspensions

Carlos Ruiz: The Phillies backstop will continue to serve his 25-game suspension to start the season.

Is Justin Upton the heir apparent to Chipper “Larry” Jones?

When the Blue Jays forced Sandy Alderson to take John Buck‘s $6 million dollar contract as a condition of making the deal for Travis d’Arnaud, many people including me groaned. I loved the fact that Buck could actually catch (unlike Josh Thole) and would be an asset overall, but six million samoans for Buck was simply too much for me to swallow.

Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and Alderson sure lucked out on this one despite holding his nose and agreed to take Buck in that Dickey deal.

Fast forward to April 9, 2013…

Through seven games, Buck is now batting .375 to lead the Mets and throw in three homers (tops on the team) and 12 RBIs (tops in the NL). Somebody get me a shot of Chivas…

Are there still a lot of skeptics out there? Of course and rightfully so, but that doesn’t faze the Mets catcher one bit.

“I don’t really care,” he said. “I figure if I just keep doing what I’m doing, they can be surprised at the end of the year.”

Before joining the Mets, Buck was merely a career .236 hitter over his nine years in the majors. He has bounced around from team to team and has logged time with Kansas City, Toronto and Miami before hitting the streets of Flushing.

The power however, shouldn’t come as surprise to anyone as Buck has belted 15 or more homers three times in his career. But what’s happening right now? This is a first…

Last night, he blasted a three-run shot off of the once great Roy Halladay and clinched the win for the Mets. But it’s not just his bat that has been impressive. Mets starters have the second best ERA in the majors when he’s behind the dish and calling the game. He’s been the complete package for the Amazins.

I have always said that Omar Minaya struck gold when he picked up R.A. Dickey off the scrap heap. John Buck could end up becoming Sandy Alderson’s first real nugget and ironically, he didn’t even want him in the first place.

As I said, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Essentially, the team will be using the off-day on Thursday to skip the fifth spot in the rotation this week.

“Laffey is going to be the guy until we figure out when Shaun’s going to be back, or if he’s going to be back, or where we stand,” Collins told Rubin. “There’s no number in mind of how many starts. It could be three. It could be seven. I don’t know.”

Until his next start, Laffey will be available out of the bullpen.

Laffey allowed three runs and ten hits and a walk in 4 1/3 innings on Sunday and looked very hittable against a very weakened Marlins offense. In seven MLB seasons, the southpaw has a 4.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 149 appearances.

The Mets don’t owe Laffey anything beyond one last start to prove he belongs. He’ll have a tough go of it in Coors Field.

Mets Lineup

1. Collin Cowgill CF
2. Daniel Murphy 2B
3. David Wright 3B
4. Ike Davis 1B
5. Mike Baxter RF
6. Lucas Duda LF
7. Ruben Tejada SS
8. Anthony Recker C
9. Aaron Laffey LHP

Game Notes

The Mets optioned RHP Jeurys Familia to Triple-A Las Vegas. They also moved Johan Santana to the 60-day disabled list and removed him from the 40-man roster. The Mets will make a corresponding move tomorrow.

David Wright has now played 60 consecutive games without an error after Saturday’s win against the Marlins. He continues to extend the franchise record which was once held by Lenny Randle who played in 54 consecutive games without an error during the 1978 season.

John Buck contributed four RBIs and Daniel Murphy produced a tiebreaking triple in the seventh that plated Mike Baxter as the Mets beat the Marlins, 7-3, Saturday. He will get his first day off today and a well deserved rest. He has an NL-leading nine RBI’s through his first five games.

Terry Collins said the outfield won’t be as consistent as predicted only a week earlier. Baxter, who reached base three times and scored twice while batting in the leadoff spot, should start again Monday against Halladay in Philly, according to the manager. The outfield will be in flux most of this season and you can call it an outfield by committee.

Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton tallied a pair of singles in Saturday’s loss to the Mets. The base knocks boosted his batting average to .222 (4-for-18), though the right fielder is still in search of his first homer of the year.

Game Preview

The Mets find themselves in a rubber game situation today as they bounced back from a two game slide yesterday. In their last game, the Mets and Marlins traded runs until it was a 3-3 game. After that, the Mets scored 4 unanswered run, 3 in a rally. The difference for the Mets in yesterday’s game was timely hitting and being aggressive on the base paths. Twice in one inning, a Mets runner stole second, forced a bad throw/reception and was able to move ahead to third base. Both of those runners would score. Today at Citi-Field, Aaron Laffey will be making his Mets debut as he faces Marlins phenom Jose Fernandez.

Fernandez, 20, will make his big league debut on Sunday, despite having never pitched at a level above Class A. The right-hander, ranked No. 7 on MLB.com’s Top 100 Prospect List, was the Marlins’ first-round Draft selection in 2011 and was selected after the Mets took Brandon Nimmo with the previous pick. He’ll be the youngest hurler in team history to appear in a game.

Aaron Laffey was with the Blue Jays last year where he had a 4.56 ERA over 20 games, 16 starts and 100.2 innings. In that stretch he walked 37 batters and struck out 48. For the Mets in Spring Training, he allowed 12 runs over 4 games. This is his first time in his career being on a National League team, thus it is also his first time facing the Marlins. The has faced a few batters on the Marlins roster:

Kotchman 9-12, 4 2B
Polanco 4-12, 2B
Olivo 2-10, 2B
Pierre 0-5

The Mets will be facing one of the prized prospects in the Marlins organization, Jose Fernandez. Baseball America ranks him as the #5 prospect in baseball and MLB.com ranks him as #7 (between d’Arnaud and Wheeler). Most people, basically everyone, expected to see Fernandez in the major leagues some time next year, maybe at the end of this year. However, the Marlins are going to do what the Marlins do and promoted the 20 year old phenom to the majors without reaching AA. Over 25 starts last year between low A and high A (or A and A Advanced, whatever it’s called now), Fernandez was 14-1 with a 1.75 ERA over 133.0 innings. In that time, he walked only 35 batters and struck out 155. He only pitched 2 innings in official spring training games this spring, allowing 1 hit, no runs and striking out 2. Today will be an interesting day.

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Mets Lineup

1. Mike Baxter – RF
2. Daniel Murphy – 2B
3. David Wright – 3B
4. Ike Davis – 1B
5. John Buck – C
6. Kirk Nieuwenhuis – CF
7. Lucas Duda – LF
8. Ruben Tejada – SS
9. Jonathon Niese – LHP

Game Notes

Terry Collins is backpedalling on his pre-opening day statement that Collin Cowgill and Marlon Byrd would pay everyday in his outfield. Today, he told reporters he now intends to mix-and-match in the outfield based on matchups and that his outfield is not set right now.

John Buck is off to a great start with the Mets. He is the only catcher in the majors allowed to have personalized art on his catcher’s mask. Wilson, which supplies the catcher’s masks for MLB, now bans artwork, but Buck is grandfathered in and is permitted to have the personal touch according to Newsday.

After being swept by the Nationals to open the season, the Marlins finally broke into the win column Friday with a win over the Mets. The victory marked the first of its kind for the club after its roster underwent a total makeover in the offseason.

The Mets have hit at least one home run in each of their first four games for the first time since 2006.

Game Preview

The Mets dropped their second game in a row last night as the Marlins beat the Mets by the score of 7-5. In the first two games of the season, the Mets had excellent starting pitching and timely hitting. In the second two games of the season, the Mets still had excellent starting pitching, but the hitting fell apart. Earlier on yesterday’s game the Mets had a ton of chances to score earlier in the game and couldn’t get it done. When the Mets started to score, the Mets bullpen simultaneously fell apart. This afternoon Jon Niese will be making his second start of the season as he goes up against Ricky Nolasco.

Jon Niese picked up a win in his first start of the season pitching 6.2 innings allowing 2 ER and 4 hits while walking 2 and striking out 4. Terry attempted to pull Niese out of the game after 6, but Niese insisted to stay in the game. Last season Niese had a 13-9 record over 190.1 innings while posting a 3.40 ERA. Against the Marlins he totaled 25.1 innings over 4 starts with a 1-1 record allowing 9 ER, which would be a 3.20 ERA. The Marlins have the following numbers against Niese:

Polanco 11-32, 5 2B
Kearns 5-15, 2B
Stanton 3-12
Coghlan 2-10, 2B
Nolasco 0-4
Ruggiano 2-5
Brantly 0-3

Nolasco was the hard luck loser in his first start of the season against the Nationals. He allowed only 3 hits over 6 innings of work. Sadly for Ricky, two of those hits were solo homers to Bryce Harper. Last season Nolasco was 12-13 over 31 starts and 191.0 innings while posting a 4.48 ERA. He picked up one loss in three starts over 18.1 innings against the Marlins. Rickey allowed 9 earned runs and 19 hits during that stretch, which is a 4.34 ERA. The Mets have the following numbers against Nolasco:

Wright 25-63, 6 2B, 6 HR (.397 BA)
Murphy 8-25, 3 2B
Davis 3-20, 2 2B
Duda 2-14
Tejada 2-12, 3B
Kirk 3-5, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!   Check 213 Miles From Shea!

Tonight’s Mets Lineup

1. Jordany Valdespin, CF
2. Daniel Murphy, 2B
3. David Wright, 3B
4. Ike Davis, 1B
5. Marlon Byrd, RF
6. Lucas Duda, LF
7. John Buck, C
8. Ruben Tejada, SS
9. Jeremy Hefner, RHP

Game Notes

• Mets catcher John Buck hit his second homer in three games on Thursday, taking Padres closer Huston Street deep to left field in the ninth inning. It was the 50th home run for Buck since the start of the 2010 season. The 32-year-old spent last season with the Marlins.
• The Mets have hit at least one home run in each of their first three games, the longest such stretch to open a season since New York hit a home run in four straight games to begin the 2006 campaign.
• Marlins third baseman Placido Polanco, who batted cleanup the first two games this season for the first time in his career, hit second on Thursday. The Marlins were 6-12 against the Mets last season, including a 2-7 record at Citi Field, where they’ve lost their last four games.
• Jose Fernandez, the 14th overall pick in the 2011 draft out of high school in Tampa, will make his major league debut Sunday. The 20-year-old right-hander went a combined 14-1 with a 1.75 ERA in 25 Class A starts last season between Greensboro and Jupiter.
• Ex-Met John Maine made Miami’s Opening Day roster as a reliever. He did not appear during the season-opening series at D.C., so his first major league action since his Mets days may come this weekend at Citi Field.
• This season, Mets starters have combined to post a 1.35 ERA (three earned runs/20.0 innings pitched), ranking fourth in the majors behind San Francisco (0.00), Washington (0.47) and Chicago-NL (0.95)…The trio of starters (Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey and Dillon Gee) have combined for 18 strikeouts in the club’s first three contests.

Game Preview

The Mets and Marlins play their first game together at Citi Field tonight as Jeremy Hefner gets the start against Alex Sanabia. Yesterday the Mets dropped the final game of a three game set vs. the Padres by the score of 2-1. Dillon Gee gave the Mets their third straight game of excellent starting pitching but the bats just couldn’t do anything – except for Turner who surprisingly collected a bunch of hits and John Buck who smacked his second homer in as many days. The Marlins are coming off of a sweep by the Nationals. The Marlins managed to score 1 run over that three game stretch.

Hefner gets the nod for the Mets today. Last season he was 4-7 with a 5.09 ERA over 93.2 innings. On the positive side he walked only 18 batters during that stretch (and struck out 62). Last year he totaled 14.1 innings of work over 3 games and 2 starts against the Marlins where he allowed only 4 ER walking 4 batters and striking out 11. The Marlins have the following numbers against Hefner:

Stanton 1-7
Solano 2-5
Pierre 2-3
Polanco 2-4
Ruggiano 0-2
Dobbs 0-3

The Mets bats look to bounce back against Alex Sanabia tonight who is making his 2013 debut. Last season Sanabia did not pitch in the majors at all. In 2011, he had a limited stint with the Marlins pitching in 3 games, 2 starts totaling 11.0 innings allowing 4 ER. The year before he pitched in 15 games, 12 starts where he logged 72.1 innings with a 3.71 ERA. During Spring Training this year, he pitched 7.0 innings allowing 4 ER. He has pitched 13.1 innings against the Mets allowing 8 runs, 6 earned. The Mets have the following numbers against Alex:

Davis 2-6, 3B
Wright 2-6, 2B
Tejada 1-4
Byrd 0-3
Duda 0-1

These blue beauties are making their Citi Field debut tonight #Mets twitter.com/Mets/status/32…

— New York Mets (@Mets) April 5, 2013

Let’s Go Mets!

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Now that we are just about a week out from Opening Day, let’s take a more detailed look at what the Mets will be up against this season. With the new league format in which there are 15 teams in each league, the Mets will have interleague play spread out throughout the year, starting with the Twins the second week in April. In total, the Mets play 20 interleague games, 19 games against each team in the division, and 66 other games within the National League.

To gauge how difficult the Mets’ schedule is, I compiled the 2012 winning percentages and pythagorean winning percentages (what their record should be based on their runs scored and runs allowed) from the 2012 season, and broke down the results month-by-month.

The Mets will start off the season with a very easy schedule, probably their easiest month of the season. With all the injuries right now, they may not be able to capitalize on the easy opponents early, which would make it very difficult to get above .500 for the first time since 2008. Their April opponents had a .476 winning percentage and .479 pythagorean winning percentage, both significantly worse than any month the rest of the season.

Once May starts, the schedule gets a whole lot tougher. During the month of May, the Mets play some tough teams like the Reds, Cardinals, and White Sox. From then on, with the exception of August, the schedule is very, very tough. August is a bit different, as the Mets get to play the Padres, Royals, and Rockies.

There’s more going on here than just 2012 win-loss record, however. Every season, there are teams that see big changes over the offseason, including some on the Mets schedule. Their 2012 records won’t tell the whole story, so the Mets may have some tougher and some easier stretches than last year’s data predicts:

• St. Louis Cardinals- 7 games: The Cardinals hit their way into the postseason last year with a very short-handed roster compared to their 2011 team, which won the World Series. After losing Albert Pujols and Edwin Jackson to free agency along with Chris Carpenter to injury, the rest of the roster stepped up. After losing a few more guys this past winter, however, it looks like it won’t be possible for the Cardinals to repeat what they did last year. They failed to re-sign Kyle Lohse and lost Rafael Furcal to Tommy John Surgery. Those two alone are worth about 5 fWAR between them. Now their closer Jason Motte is hurt as well, possibly seriously. Now a .500 record seem more likely than playoff baseball.
• Cleveland Indians- 3 games: The Indians were extremely aggressive this winter, spending over $120 million in the free agent market. As Mets fans know, they snatched up Michael Bourn on a four-year deal along with Nick Swisher, Brett Myers, and Mark Reynolds. They also made a big move via the trade market, dealing Shin-Soo Choo and three others in a three-team deal, acquiring Drew Stubbs to complete the outfield, as well as top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. The Mets only have three games for the Indians this season but what previously looked like a possible three-game sweep for the Mets could now be a sweep for Cleveland.
• New York Yankees- 4 games: The Mets meet the Yankees in late-May with a four-game series split between Citi Field and Yankee Stadium. It seems like for years, Mets fans have been saying hopefully that it would be the year the Yankees are finally too old. Well, this may be the year. Alex Rodriguez looks like he could miss the majority of the season. Mark Teixeira could miss much of it as well. For the first time in a while, they stodd pat for the offseason, which will end up really hurting them this year. They are depleted and the guys they have remaining are injury-prone.
• Miami Marlins- 19 games: The Marlins are a completely different team from a year ago. Going into last year, they had a roster with some very big names. Now, the cupboard is completely bare and the team looks terrible. Just looking at fWAR, the players the Marlins lost this winter were worth 18.5 wins last year while their additions totaled just 3.6 wins. The Marlins lost 93 games last season, but they could be well over 100 losses by the time 2013 is over.
• Philadelphia Phillies- 19 games: This is really a tough one. I could really see the Phillies going either way. They could get healthy and make a run at the playoffs, or they could slip into mediocrity and win less than 75. They are the biggest wild card right now in the NL East. The keys for them will by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Both haven’t been themselves the past few seasons and as they’ve grown older, their power numbers have dissipated along with their health. It also remains to be seen how much their once-great rotation has left with Vance Worley gone and Roy Halladay not pitching like himself.
  

Even with some opponents looking much worse than last season, the Mets will still have to deal with the Nationals and Braves 19 times each, which will be very tough with the improved rosters those two organizations put together. We’ll see how it all plays out. If there’s one thing the Mets have to do, however, if they want any shot at making noise in the Wild Card race, it’s play well early on.