Left field has always been used as a kind of defensive dumping ground for many teams trying to find a way to get a bat in the lineup.  Not requiring the arm strength considered de rigueur for Right, and less daunting in the presence of a fleet centerfielder, it is often a place for players whose offense demands playing time, but are not “natural” outfielders and have been blocked from a preferred position by a regular or superior defender.

Even good glovemen have been known to regard the territory with disdain: following his trade to the Texas Rangers, Lee Mazzilli reacted to being shifted from center to left to accommodate Rangers’ rookie George Wright by referring to his new spot in the outfield as “an idiot’s position.” Surely an overly harsh judgment, but objectively, it is accepted baseball wisdom that players with less speed, weaker throwing arms, and generally questionable glove skills are best relegated to the “low glamor” pasture to best hide their defensive shortcomings. All of this is assuming, of course, that their bats will provide sufficient thump to offset the inevitable consequences of their less-than-stellar glove work.

The Mets have certainly tried their fair share of square pegs in that particular round hole. After acquiring Mike Piazza, an attempt was made to shift the suddenly superfluous Todd Hundley to left. It didn’t end well. And we all still have the memories of Daniel Murphy’s adventures there fresh in our minds. Hopefully, his apparently successful adaptation to second base will help them fade soon.

Now we have the Dude. After appearing primarily in RF last season, Lucas has been shifted across the field to replace the departed Jason Bay, a player whose offensive woes notwithstanding, provided average to, at times, above average defense. But Bay’s glove could not carry his bat, and the Mets clearly expect much more in terms of offense from Duda.

Interestingly, it is not as if Duda is playing an unfamiliar position (even though it might appear that way), having logged 296 games in LF while in the minors. He spent considerable time in the outfield during his collegiate career as well although he seems to have been primarily a first-sacker during his early days at USC. Regardless, it has been his power potential as reflected by his imposing stature as well as the occasionally notable outburst of big flies in his minor league career (e.g. a run of 5 consecutive games with a homer during his 2010 campaign with Buffalo) that have led Mets management to install him in LF and hope for the best.

The tutelage of Mets outfield coach Tom Goodwin and careful positioning may combine to neutralize some of the more glaring holes in the Dude’s game, although if the play involving Rob Brantley’s drive to the left-field corner during the Marlin game on April 7 is any indication, there is plenty more work to be done. He does have a good arm, having pitched and served as the closer on his high school team.

So, the question remains as to what course of action would be best for Mets management to follow given the various scenarios that could develop with Duda’s career. On the one hand, he is a relatively young (27) controllable player (2 years from arbitration eligibility and 5 from free agency) that has shown flashes of power, probably the scarcest resource in the Met system. On the other hand, with his size and relative lack of foot speed, he profiles more closely as a first baseman, a spot likely currently occupied by Ike Davis. Accordingly, I foresee one of four possible scenarios developing:

1. His bat develops as the team hopes, and he becomes a consistent 25-30 HR and 100 RBI threat whose game-breaking ability outweighs his mediocre defensive metrics. He remains in LF as long as feasible.
2. His bat develops as the team hopes, etc., and he becomes a valuable trade chip, perhaps to a team in the AL where he can DH or to a team in either league with a vacancy at 1B. The resultant return being either a “true” outfielder with comparable offensive skills, a “true” outfielder with complimentary offensive skills (i.e. speed, high OBP), or a package of high minor level talent to help plug various positions (e.g. outfield, bullpen).
3. His bat develops as the team hopes, etc. and the team finds a better trade match for Ike Davis who is dealt for the resources described previously and Duda is installed at 1B.
4. His bat continues to tease but he does not take the next step to that of a consistent power threat fast enough, at which point his defense becomes truly problematic.  Team management is then left with a choice of using him as a role player or getting what they can for him in the trade market.

I can envision his development taking the favorable path. He has shown a good eye at the plate, although his patience has at times been criticized as a lack of properly channeled aggression by some. He has exhibited a reasonable ability to hit left handers in his career, albeit with somewhat reduced power. He is at the age where many players enter their time of greatest production.

What sets great lineups apart from merely good ones are what follow the four hole and gives the batting order “length.” When Travis d’Arnaud arrives, he likely projects as a number five hitter, keeping the preferred left/right alternation in place behind Davis, assuming Davis gets his act together. If Duda can fill the slot of the sixth place hitter consistently (there’s that word again), the Mets should have excellent run production.

As the first six weeks of the season wraps up, Duda has seen his stats across the board decline sharply. In April he was among the league leaders with a .436 OBP and .978 OPS while batting mostly sixth or seventh in the lineup.

However, when May rolled around, Terry Collins began batting Duda in the cleanup and five spot and the results so far have been disastrous. In 13 games this month, Duda has a .119/.191/.357 batting line in 49 at-bats which have all but erased the gains he made in April. He does have eight home runs and a very respectable .355 on-base, but somehow he leaves you wanting more. He’s become quite the enigma. It’s still early in the season, and it’s not like the Mets have any better options at the ready, but he needs to start showing some aggression and start swinging and making contact with some of those strikes that just seem to pass him by.

The early season struggles of Ike Davis have been well-documented. Following his second four-strikeout game of the season yesterday against the St. Louis Cardinals, he’s now hitting an awful .157/.245/.268 in 127 at-bats. That line is hard to look at, but it gets even harder when you realize it only includes four home runs, nine RBIs, and 45 strikeouts.

I’ve been in favor of sending Ike down to the minors for a couple weeks now because it’s been painful to watch how lost he is at the plate. I understand that in order for him to bust out of this slump, he has to play. While some think the best solution is for him to figure it out in the big leagues, I just can’t watch it anymore.

I’ve been watching a handful of Las Vegas 51s games these last two weeks, and I’ve been impressed with the performance of Josh Satin and Zach Lutz at the plate. The PCL may favor the hitters (as we’ve seen with the call-ups of Juan Lagares and Andrew Brown), but the approach throughout their at-bats has been sound. Satin is currently hitting .297/.412/.478 with five homers and 20 RBIs. More importantly, he’s collected 10 doubles in 37 games. I would love to see Satin get a chance instead of Ike right now, but it’s would be difficult since he’s not currently on the 40-man roster.

A guy who is on the 40-man that is hitting right now is Zach Lutz. The corner infielder is hitting .260/.340/.407 with four homers and 20 RBIs. Those numbers aren’t exactly eye-popping, but he’s currently riding a seven-game hitting streak. Over the last week, he’s hitting .444 with three homers, seven RBIs, and two doubles.

If the Mets were to make a move with Ike and actually send him down, Lutz should be the one getting a call. I really liked the call-up of Lagares, but was frustrated when he wasn’t inserted into the lineup consistently when he arrived. He was hitting .346/.378/.551 in Las Vegas prior to making his MLB debut, and I thought Terry Collins would try to ride that hot streak. If Lutz gets promoted, it would make sense for Collins to immediately insert him into the lineup to try and reap the benefits of his hot streak.

Collins said he’s committed to having Davis bat cleanup this weekend in Wrigley against the Chicago Cubs. If he doesn’t show any signs of life in his bat, a move needs to be made. Honestly, I don’t think the Mets will actually send Ike to the minors, but when he looks as lost as he has (especially yesterday), it’s tough getting excited when he walks to the plate in the middle of a rally.

An enthusiastic high-five and an ecstatic dugout after Valdespin homers. (Gordon Donovan)

This is getting utterly ridiculous…

According to Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, Mets Manager Terry Collins said that he could see the Pirates retaliating against Jordany Valdespin for his admiration of his ninth-inning homer on Friday night, but added that he doesn’t think Pittsburgh would go after David Wright.

“I think every situation is different. I don’t think you retaliate on David Wright,” Collins said.

“You don’t take it out on David Wright. Now will they throw at Valdespin? I have no idea. Fifteen years ago the answer would have been yes. I can’t say that’s going to happen in today’s game. They won the game. I’m sure it’s over with. But, you know, a lot of teams have long memories.”

What is the matter with this guy? Is his brain going soft?

Why even raise the spectre of Wright being beaned in retaliation for Valdespin’s dramatics in the first place?

Still don’t think there’s some kind of agenda here? Every day they only add another log onto the bonfire…

Let’s get the fans to turn on Valdespin by projecting the image of fan favorite David Wright getting beaned because of him…

Great idea…

Of course we all remember how often Gary Carter got beaned when Darryl Strawberry and Lenny Dykstra would do the same thing. Remember all those life-threatening beanballs?

As I wrote in last night’s recap, Valdespin clouted a ninth-inning homer into the second deck in right center and then stared defiantly into the dugout, flipped his bat, and took a quick glance at his blast before trotting around the bases. Good for him…

“When you hit the ball, you got to enjoy your hit,” he said. “Every time I hit the ball, homer or something, I enjoy that. Every hit, I’m enjoying, my family’s enjoying, my friends enjoying.”

During the post-game last night, Collins sighed, grimaced and paused for 30 seconds when asked about Jordany’s home run.

“I know he’s trying to make a statement because he hasn’t been in the lineup. I know he’s trying to make a statement to everybody of what he can do. If he keeps homers, he can stand at home plate all he wants, I guess, as long as they keep coming at the right time.”

Regarding his flair, Collins added, “Do I like it? I don’t know if it really matters. I can’t change the game.”

We don’t need to change the game, because this has been going on for over a hundred years. But we do need to change the manager.

Jordany Valdespin

That’s irrelevant now that Sale was moved up to pitch on Monday and will not pitch against the Mets after all.

Michael Baron of MetsBlog pointed out that against left-handed pitching, Valdespin is hitting just .182 with a .545 OPS. But what he failed to mention was that he only has 11 at-bats against left-handed pitching this season and an average fan will just look at those numbers and say he can’t hit LHP and nothing could be further from the truth.

Ike Davis, who has three times as much playing time against LHP this season is batting .138 with a .435 OPS.

I just wanted to throw that in to be fair to Valdespin while providing some actual context.

You don’t get better at something until you get more opportunities to learn and improve. Davis has gotten those opportunities and done nothing with them.

Valdespin, on the other hand, hasn’t been given enough time to make a judgement on him or write him off against left-handed pitching. In Spring Training, Valdespin batted .429 against LHP and led the team overall with a .883 OPS. Valdespin batted .276 against LHP from 2010-2012 in the minors.

 Starting Lineups

Game Notes

• The Mets’ losing streak has reached six games after the club failed to protect a one-run lead with three outs remaining for a second straight day at Marlins Park. It matches their longest losing streak of the 2012 season. They are now in fourth place in the NL East, just two games ahead of the last place Marlins.They are 1-6 in one-run decisions this season and have dropped five straight one-run games.
• Adam Rubin reports that Collins is giving serious consideration to getting Justin Turner into the lineup as an outfielder. Collins opted to leave Turner out of the lineup today rather than have his first taste of the outfield come in a spacious ballpark with tricky outfield walls. Wow… Looks like this might happen.
• Terry Collins is pissed. ”I’m pissed off. I’m extremely pissed off,” the Mets manager said after last night’s game. “They’re playing as hard as they can. Everyone’s is struggling with the way things are going. We have to fight through it. This is what the game is about. You have to act like a man, you have to act like a pro and get out here and get ready to play tomorrow.”
• Rubin also says that Collins may be toeing the party line when he said that he is pleased with the Mets’ approach at the plate, despite the recent futility. The Mets have scored three or fewer runs in eight of their past 12 games.

Game Preview

The Mets try to put this Marlins series out of its misery this afternoon as they play the get away game / salvage game today. Even though there was a terrible call last night at third base in 9th inning that cost Hefner his gem of a game, the real blame of the game falls on offense. The bats have fallen completely silent to the point that during this losing streak everyone in the lineup is under-performing. Here’s hoping last night was enough of a fire to spark this offense, which is as spark-able as wet wood right now. Dillon Gee gets the start today vs Wade LeBlanc.

Dillon Gee is 1-4 this season over 5 starts with a 5.96 ERA over 25.2 innings. He is starting to look like a better pitcher. He had a scoreless outing two starts ago and last time out he was cruising with the exception of one inning. He hasn’t faced the Marlins since 2011, back then he was 1-0 over 2 games while allowing 4 ER over 11.0 innings. The Marlins have the following numbers against Gee:

Polanco 2-12
Pierre 2-6
Dobbs 1-3, HR
Stanton 1-5, HR

Wade LeBlanc looks to keep the Mets bats depressed. On the season, Wade is 0-4 over 5 games with a 6.20 ERA over 24.2 innings of work. In his last three games, he’s allowed 13 ER over 13.2 innings. Last year he was pretty good against the Mets allowing 3 runs, 2 earned over 11 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Wade:

Wright 6-10, HR
Tejada 1-7
Murphy 4-8, HR
Davis 3-7, HR
Buck 0-3
Duda 2-3

Lets Go Mets! (Please, just win)

Most baseball pundits cast off the Mets’ outfield as being the worst in the league heading into the season.

On paper, maybe that is correct, but based on performance, the Mets outfield hasn’t been all that bad.

Lucas Duda has looked good offensively, Marlon Byrd has had some big hits, Mike Baxter gives all-out effort every time he’s on the field, and Jordany Valdespin proved last night what a great asset he is to the ball club.

Of the group, Collin Cowgill has struggled since his Opening Day grand slam, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis really didn’t have a place on this roster.

So Juan Lagares was called up to replace Kirk. But the timing of it all is somewhat strange.

Lagares was hitting .346 in Las Vegas so a call-up was certainly warranted. But where does he fit on the big league roster at this point?

Duda is entrenched in left field. That’s a given. In right, Byrd hasn’t exactly played himself out of the batting order, and again Baxter – as exhibited by his key hustle double last night – produces when given the chance.

Center field has been the revolving door, but Valdespin has shown that he could be productive if given the chance. Cowgill might be in a cold spell, but he could very well regain his hot form from spring training.

The thing that confuses me is that Lagares should not be in the Majors unless he’s playing every day. He’s said to be a great defensive center fielder – which is of course important – but he needs to consistently be put up against top-notch pitching.

If Terry Collins is insistent on trying to get Cowgill regular at-bats, then Lagares should still be in Vegas. And throw Valdespin in the mix, and who knows what’s going on in center?

Even a platoon situation with Lagares and Valdespin would not do the kid much good. If he ever plans on being a regular, he’ll need to face both righties and lefties.

Here’s a potential scenario, that I hope does not play, out but could be an option. If Ike Davis continues his abysmal stretch, the Mets may consider sending him down to Vegas to find himself. Duda then moves to first, and Valdespin can play left with Lagares in center.

We learned last season that even after a slow start, Davis can turn it on in a big way. His second half last year has basically earned him a free pass to struggle early on this year. But if he doesn’t find his stroke like he did last season, maybe a change would do him good.

Again though, let’s hope Davis finds his stroke.

Right now, let Valdespin play; he’s an electric talent. Everyone keeps saying that he’s so raw, but the only way to get more refined is to constantly be in the lineup.

Not many players can say they are not in the starting lineup the day after hitting a walk-off grand slam. Sure, the Mets are facing a lefty, but again, you have to give Valdespin the exposure.

Same goes for Lagares. If Collins can find him regular at-bats, that’s one thing. But if Cowgill is getting the start over him, then he should be playing every day in Vegas.

Maybe I haven’t given this enough time to properly play out, but there’s no point in having a prospect sit on the bench in the Majors when he could be refining his game every day in the minors.

Baseball is a game of adjustments. The Mets under Dave Hudgens’ tutelage have adopted a doctrine of selectivity that emphasizes seeing lots of pitches, running up pitch-counts, zoning in on your pitch, and ultimately getting on base one way or another. There has been a lot of discussion on MMO about whether this approach is effective. The consensus, bolstered by a pile of data, seems to be that it is. Teams that take lots of pitches get on base more, teams that get on base score more runs … but if we’ve learned anything from following baseball over the years, it’s that successful trends tend to be attacked from every angle until a weakness is isolated and exploited.

The pitching side will adjust sooner or later, if they haven’t already. We saw the Giants, Nationals and Phillies come through Flushing late last summer pounding the zone, and it seemed like just about every one of our hitters were behind in the count before you could blink. Quality pitchers will do that to you … we have one of our own in Matt Harvey who has been doing that to opposing lineups routinely. Keith Hernandez noted on several occasions last year that when facing top-tier pitchers like Lee and Gonzales, the Mets struggled to adjust.

One problem that I’ve had with the Mets high OBP philosophy has been the blanket application of this approach system wide, with little regard to individual skill sets. You get the sense that they’re trying to squeeze more than a few round pegs into square holes … Not only does this fail with players who simply don’t have the aptitude to adjust (Kirk maybe?), but, there may actually be a place for the unpredictable aggressive hitter in a good lineup, if only to keep opposing pitchers honest.

First pitch strikes are up all over the league as a result of teams trying to be more selective and early indications are that hitters are taking these pitches. Most hitters that is … John Buck, hasn’t been one of them. John Buck, who has never been a very patient hitter, has been even less patient in 2013.

Watching the Met lineup this year has been entertaining. Any combination of lead-off hitters will take take take, swing … Murphy will take swing take take swing,  Wright will take a bunch of pitches then hit a triple, Ike will sometimes swing at the first pitch then take a bunch of borderline called strikes then he’ll whine and fuss and grimace, Duda seems like he walks every other at bat, then Buck will come up and launch a first pitch fastball 460 feet. He’s taking pitchers off guard. They get locked into this pattern of trying to get ahead with fastballs (because the rest of the lineup is so gosh darned selective), by the time Buck comes up it’s easy pickings.

Buck’s first pitch strike percentage has jumped from 61.1% last season, to 69.4% this year. His walk rate? After two seasons where he set career highs in BB% (which could very well be why the Mets were interested in him in the first place), this season he has seen his walk rate drop from 12.3% last year to 3.0% in 66 plate appearances so far in 2013. Go ahead, try and make sense of that.

When you look at other plate discipline metrics they’re all fairly comparable to his career norms with a few exceptions, his contact rates. Buck has a surprising 69% contact rate on pitches thrown outside the strike zone (o-contact %) and a whopping 85.1% contact rate on pitches thrown inside the zone (z-contact %). He’s not really being more selective, he’s just not missing pitches when he swings.

Buck’s contact metrics are up across the board, and at 9.9% his swinging strike percentage is at a career low. He’s not swinging any less either, he’s as aggressive (both in and out of the zone) as he’s ever been and he’s walking way less even though he is playing for a team that preaches being selective (!) … and, he’s been wildly successful. Why? Because his contact rates are up. Well, why are his contact rates up? Because he’s been dropped into this very patient lineup and he’s reaping all the benefits of clobbering fastballs off pitchers who come in pounding the zone … to the tune of  7 home runs and 22 RBI while hitting .290/.303/.661.

John Buck’s contact rates over the past 4 seasons:

The lesson here? Variety … the spice of life as they say. I like the selective/patient approach as much as anyone, I like the idea of running pitch counts up and long at bats — they annoy pitchers and tire them out at the very least, but you have to mix in a few free radicals to keep pitchers off balance. As a pitcher it’s a lot more difficult to prepare for a lineup reflecting a bunch of diverse skill sets than a homogenous always-patient top to bottom bunch. It’s really what made the 86 Mets so devastating.

It’s hard for a pitcher who gets accustomed to pounding the zone to suddenly alter his approach here, and there, and again there … they are less likely to get into a groove. This is why I advocated from the beginning for letting Kirk play to his aggressive tendencies in the 6 or 7 spot rather than forcing him into the lead-off role, but noooo, Terry Collins had to try him in the lead-off role … Exploiting pitchers who get into the habit of grooving early strikes is also probably why Ike hit so many first pitch home runs last year.

Again, not a knock on “selective aggression” or whatever Hudgens calls it, but there were times last year when I felt like the lineup stagnated because there were too many predictable hitters who seemed to have identical approaches. They were vulnerable to pitchers who worked inside the strike-zone. Carefully embedding a few aggressive hackers in a patient lineup may result in more of what we’re seeing with Buck.

Eventually the league will adjust and stop throwing Buck these fat first pitch fastballs, at that point we may see an up-tick in walks and we’ll see if he in turn can adjust … but the premise should still hold. There is a benefit to carefully placing a few aggressive hitters in an otherwise selective lineup because they stand a good chance of capitalizing on pitchers who adjust by pounding the strike zone early in the count.

Call Washington, I think we just made Contact.

I thought about the first three spots in the Mets lineup. While the two and three holes seem locked by Daniel Murphy and David Wright respectively, the leadoff spot has been somewhat of a revolving door. Here is the list of starts in the leadoff spot with Murphy and Wright at No. 2 and 3:

• Collin Cowgill – 6
• Jordany Valdespin – 6
• Mike Baxter – 1
• Kirk Nieuwenhuis – 1
• Justin Turner – 1

*One of Cowgill’s starts had Justin Turner subbing into the two hole for Murphy

Statistics tell us that Cowgill and El Dramático are the frontrunners to bat at the top of lineup. Here are their lines this season:

• Cowgill: .205/.205/.385 – 6 Runs – 8  RBI – 2 HR – 0 SB – 0  BB – 10 K
• Valdespin: .306/.359/.389  - 8 Runs – 2 RBI – 0 HR – 2 SB – 2 BB – 6 K

These are the combined stats of the first three batters when each player bats leadoff with Murphy and Wright behind them:

• Cowgill: .243/.300/.378 – 14 Runs – 10 RBI – 2 HR – 6 BB – 11 K
• Valdespin: .375/.444/.597 – 19 Runs – 17 RBI – 3 HR – 9 BB – 9 K

Conventional wisdom suggests that the Mets should start Valdespin more at the top of the lineup. The Mets’ record with each player would suggest otherwise:

• Cowgill – 4-3
• Valdespin – 2-4

It’s worth noting that the one game Baxter batted leadoff in, which resulted in a 7-3 win against Miami, Cowgill hit his second home run of the season. He also went 3-6 in the last game he started, which was an 8-9, extra-inning loss to Colorado.

What do all these stats mean? It’s hard to tell since they’re so counterintuitive. Valdespin has obviously been the better player so far, but the Mets win more often when Cowgill is in the lineup. This could just be coincidence, but it adds credence to my theory that these two should be starting together every day.

I’ve been a Valdespin guy since the first intrasquad game. I don’t think there’s any surprise there, but I’m willing to admit that the Mets have played better so far overall with Cowgill. I still think Valdespin is a better leadoff candidate because of his speed, but there should be a way to get Cowgill into the lineup too.

Valdespin would make a better centerfielder with his superior speed and improved defensive skills, but I’m convinced he can play any of the outfield positions given enough reps. Cowgill is more of a centerfielder so I would put him there for a majority of games. Valdespin can shift to center when Cowgill has the day off if need be. Marlon Byrd can be the backup rightfielder, Nieuwenhuis can be the backup centerfielder and either Lucas Duda or Baxter can start in left field with the other as backup.

What do you think about the outfield so far?

Juan Centeno (Photo by Gordon Donovan)

Update by Joe D. at 2:20 PM

Well that didn’t take long… The Mets announced that Juan Centeno has been promoted to Triple-A Las Vegas to replace Travis d’Arnaud who was officially placed on the DL moments ago. Centeno will get the majority of the starts while Landon Powell will continue to remain the backup.

Now read about how Mitch just speculated that would likely happen about 30 minutes ago, as well as his other thoughts on the domino effect…

Original Post by Mitch at 1:45 PM

Unless you have been away from your computer, smart phone, or tablet for the past hour or so, you probably have already heard that Travis d’Arnaud will probably miss up to two months with a fracture in his foot.

This is crushing news, as Mets fans were started to get really excited about seeing the top catching prospect make his Flushing debut, especially with the talk of late where Terry Collins stated he would be willing to play both John Buck (1B) and d’Arnaud in the lineup at the same time.

Looks like we will have to wait a few more months before that becomes a reality. The reality is that our best position player prospect is now on the shelf, and someone will have to step up and replace him in Las Vegas for the time being.

The most likely candidate is Juan Centeno. Centeno does enough offensively, and more than enough defensively to make him the prime candidate to be promoted to Triple-A. Centeno also spent the entire 2012 season with Binghamton where he hit .285 on the season, showing that he can make the offensive jump to Triple-A. Blake Forsythe has had an excellent year for Binghamton so far offensively, but seeing as he has logged only five games at the Double-A level, he is probably going to remain in Binghamton. This will allow Forsythe to get more innings, as the B-Mets will only have two catchers on the roster now.

The question is, does this injury also open the door for other catchers to be promoted, like, let’s say, Kevin Plawecki? Could the Mets bump Plawecki up to Binghamton now? It’s not out of the realm of possibilities. He is a polished college hitter who is absolutely dominating Low-A ball. In fact, I thought it was a shocking that Plawecki started where he did and should have started with St. Lucie because of his hitting ability and his age. To make the jump to St. Lucie now wouldn’t be much of a challenge for Plawecki. The added bonus is that Binghamton could use a bat like his in that lineup to give some run support to pitchers like Rafael Montero, Tyler Pill, Logan Verrett and Jacob deGrom.

* * * * * * * *

By the way, interesting exchange between Joe D. and Will Carroll just now on Twitter:

By the way, when did Carroll leave Baseball Prospectus to join Bleacher Report? Sounds like an odd switch, but also explains his over the top “Second Lost Season.” Sensational titles are Bleacher Report staples as I was a former writer there before joining MMO. They would send us crazy titles and ask us to build stories around them and drilled it into our heads. I couldn’t work that way.

While history has taught us that the job security of a typical manager is often tenuous, I am genuinely puzzled with respect to this particular case. If the team’s consecutive 4th place finishes under Collins’ guidance are the primary focus of one’s judgment, it would be reasonable to point out that even Joe McCarthy would have had difficulty making trying to make Chicken Marsala out of the chicken feathers that comprised much of the Met roster over that period. When Alderson was brought aboard to reconstruct what had become a dysfunctional franchise, his choice of manager clearly signaled his recognition that a developmentally minded person would best serve his purpose. TC was a natural choice given his position as minor-league field coordinator for the organization as well as his wealth of experience.

Ah, but here lies the point of contention for some: as the organization seems poised to focus more intently on the immediate fortunes of the big league club, some would suggest that Collins’ skills might best be re-deployed. Let him focus on the farm again, and bring in an individual with a greater apparent “win now” approach to give the team the extra nudge it could have used during last year’s mediocre second half. Just how effective any particular managerial ploy would have proven for a team with the myriad weaknesses of last year’s squad is questionable, at best. For all the noise made this off-season regarding the team’s uncertain outfield, one has only to review the numbers of the 2012 corps to realize that outside of Scott Hairston, there was precious little evidence of quality. The same could be said of much of the bullpen and the catching corps, the latter evoking the old comparison to a box of Kleenex – they pop up one at a time, get it?

Yes, there was the shining glory that was R.A. Dickey’s season, David Wright’s tremendous first half and Ike Davis’ big second half, Bobby Parnell’s emergence as a consistent reliever, the remarkable debut of Matt Harvey and the pinch hitting heroics of Mike Baxter and Jordany Valdespin. Alas, these were but isolated positive parts in a generally mediocre whole.  But if one follows the logic of the Alderson plan, such seasons are necessary parts of an organizational transition. Place holders must be used while long term solutions are developed, and the results aren’t always pretty.  Couple this with the observation that the Mets as team played over their heads during the surprising first half and you need to give credit to the manager. No one has ever accused Collins of lacking intensity, but translating it into an effective battle plan on the field requires a broader range of skills. The fact that the team’s level of success fell off significantly after the All Star break should really be viewed as regression to the mean.  With four spots in the lineup taken up by Jason Bay, Andres Torres, one of last year’s catchers and a pitcher, this was never going to be an offense that would score consistently, and with a porous bullpen seemingly springing new leaks by the day, any lead was in constant jeopardy.

The criteria used in judging a manager’s performance goes beyond the team’s won/lost record, of course, but at some point, the focus ultimately comes down to that stat. What has tempered expectations in the past few seasons is the realistic view that a rebuild was necessitated by a confluence of events well beyond the scope of who was writing out the lineup card. Now that the Met organization appears to be emerging from its 4 year malaise, it would stand to reason that fans would begin to get itchy for any move that might hasten the progress toward full-fledged competitiveness.

However, rest assured, when the first stretch of losing play comes in 2013, there will be those who will label the team as “uninspired” or “underperforming” and begin clamoring for the installation of Wally Backman at the helm. While I have no doubt as to the scrappy pedigree of the current Las Vegas manager and sincerely hope he gets his shot at another big league position, I think that Collins is deserving of a chance to help bring the present Mets team he has helped nurture to the next level.

An extension is in order, in my opinion, and the sooner, the better. The fact that the Mets’ brass has chosen to allow TC to enter the season with lame duck status is somewhat understandable due to Sandy Alderson’s admitted concerns regarding last year’s second half fall-off, but as previously mentioned, any review of team statistics during that period could just as well point to culpability on the GM’s part.

I am looking forward to the season, as I do every Met season, but with real expectation of there being a “surprise” team in Flushing that steps up their game in the second half rather than fading.  Realistically, can we assert at this point that the Mets are poised to topple the Nats from their newly won perch atop the division? Probably not, but would an actual flirtation with the Wild Card be completely far-fetched? I don’t think so, at least for a good part of the season.

Given the horses, so to speak, I believe that Terry Collins can guide the ever-developing Mets to success. He has spoken of his own learning curve and development as a leader, and I believe that it is evident in the way he has conducted himself during the past two seasons. So, give him the horses, Sandy, and give him the opportunity to race them. He has earned it.

He said that the best lineup will have length, and I agree. The team isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse, so it will have to create ways to get the maximum production.

The potential lineup would be the following:

1. Jordany Valdespin, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Collin Cowgill, CF
2. Ruben Tejada, SS
3. Daniel Murphy, 2B
4. David Wright, 3B
5. Ike Davis, 1B
6. Marlon Byrd, RF
7. Lucas Duda, LF
8. John Buck, C

Let’s start with spots No. 2-8. I like Tejada in the No. 2 hole better than the No. 8 hole. Based on his spring training (though that shouldn’t be the primary indicator), he’s more suited as a guy who can move runners over rather than hit for a high average.

Moving a runner over in the No. 8 hole is useless since the pitcher follows. But in the No. 2 hole, at least Tejada can give Murphy, Wright, Davis, etc. a chance to drive in runs.

Murphy, Wright, Davis, Byrd, Duda and Buck would then create a nice lefty/righty split throughout the lineup. I can’t say that I’m totally sold on lefty/righty matchups, but teams that do set up these matchups will have fits with the Mets’ order.

I would like to see someone (in this case Byrd) bat between Davis and Duda. Both have shown they can strikeout often, and it would be extremely frustrating to see them both strikeout in a row to kill a rally.

Of course, Byrd can potentially strikeout as well, but at least this spring, his contact has been terrific.

Wright is the focal point of the offense, and having him in the cleanup position allows more guys to be on base when he steps to the plate. That of course is dependent on the players in front of him getting on base, but if they do, opposing teams will not be able to pitch around Wright as easily.

The major question mark right now with this lineup is the leadoff spot (and center field for that matter). The Mets don’t have a bona fide candidate to fill both these roles, so they will try to piece together the leadoff man/center fielder position with what they have.

Valdespin has hit well this spring and has good speed, but he definitely does not fit the mold as a leadoff hitter. And his defense in center field is extremely suspect.

Captain Kirk plays a mean center field, but his hitting still leaves much to be questioned.

Cowgill had a nice spring, isn’t a defensive liability and could be the guy who steps up when called upon. A Valdespin/Cowgill platoon – with Cowgill as also a defensive replacement for Spin late in games – could be the optimal solution.

The overall goal with a lineup should be to extend a rally as long as possible. Keeping this potential middle of the order together can do that, even if it’s a little suspect at the very top.

In a perfect world, all three leadoff guys burst out of the gate, giving Terry Collins a tough decision on who to start. Let’s hope it’s not the other way around in that Collins is forced to struggle with the choice since all three are slumping.

Expectations are clearly low for the Mets this year. However, they were also low last year, and the team gave fans at least three months of a season before falling off a cliff. Yes, on paper this team doesn’t look good, and they have been hampered by an astonishing number of injuries this Spring. However, this is baseball, and anything can happen. Certainly, a LOT of things will have to fall into place for the Mets to remain competitive. All I’m saying is it’s a possibility.

One of those key factors is that this team must survive April. A week out from Opening Day, the lineup is very much uncertain, and there are too many injuries to count.

Not only are the Mets going to battle injuries, they are going to battle the schedule. In terms of the opposition, it’s not spectacular but it’s not bad either. The challenge will be the combination of solid opposition, as well as a 10-game road trip early in the season, all while potentially being at less than full strength.

Pitchers Johan Santana, Shaun Marcum and Frank Francisco all will, or could, miss time. And on a side note, the reality is you may not be able to expect very much at all from Santana this year. And if that’s the case, the Mets may find they get very little in return for him if they look to move him around the deadline. Then, in the lineup and on the field, David Wright and Daniel Murphy may be unavailable for part of April. The bad news on Matt den Dekker and his broken wrist strikes a blow to the Mets’ outfield depth, so let’s hope the five that make the cut all stay healthy and productive.

Now, this morning, the Mets announced the encouraging news that Wright had taken batting practice and felt no pain. He appears on track for Opening Day at this point, but still, nothing is a certainty, particularly considering the unseasonably cold weather in the Northeast this year. You can bet there is no way the Mets will rush Santana, or Wright, particularly if the latter has the slightest setback.

Even if Wright is back, the Mets will still be shorthanded and face a less than easy slate of games.

The schedule opens with home series against the woeful Padres and Marlins, followed by that 10-game road trip to Philadelphia, Minnesota and Colorado. Many prognosticators believe much of the Phillies’ success this year will hinge on the ability of a talented, albeit aged-roster, to remain healthy. Still, this is a team that loves to beat the Mets.

The Rockies and Twins figure to struggle, but the Mets will be away from home. A challenging nine-game homestand follows, which will feature the reigning National League East Champion Nationals, who are frequently predicted to repeat, the high-spending Dodgers and the rival Phillies again. The month closes with the first two games of a six game road swing against the Marlins. In May, New York’s first visit to Atlanta will follow that three-game set in Miami.

The 10-game road is going to be a very interesting early barometer. One key will be how the Mets set themselves up for that road swing against the Padres and Marlins. A 5-1 homestand would sure help take the pressure off away from home. During the Terry Collins‘ era, the Mets have been better on the road than at home, so that could help as well. But there are no guarantees that trend will continue.

No one, including me, wants to overreact to the results in the first few weeks of April, and all the Mets need to worry about early this season is staying at or near .500. While doing that, the hope is to get healthy. And then as the season rolls on bring up the likes of Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud.

If the Mets can get to the Miami series on April 29th no worse than 12-13, they will have done well, all things considered. Hopefully, by that point, the team will be healthier and looking ahead to the summer months and the prospect of Wheeler and d’Arnaud. Doing this will be key to the Mets remaining relevant into the second half of the season.

You know what’s scarier than an alien invasion? I think the Borg have taken over statistical analysis in Major League Baseball. There is a collectivism in the approach to team statistics that would make a Borg Queen blush. The famous Billy Beane paradigm where they try to build Jason Giambi by incorporating the sum of his parts into several cheaper players, a Frankenstat-Giambi if you will, has resulted in a tendency to look at team offense in the aggregate more so today than at any other time in the history of the game. The extent to which front offices have applied these attempts to build statistical by-products into their offensive attacks would make Mary Shelly proud.

On a more theoretical plain, when looking at an aggregate (the macro-level) you invariably dilute the significance of the exceptional (the micro-level). Would you miss the significance of a Vladimir Guererro in your lineup as a result? I should hope not, but by focusing on collective stats such as OBP (because they run up pitch counts and wear out opposing starters), you may miss the individual contributions of exceptional performers. For instance, if you look at a Mariner’s mediocre at best offensive performance as a whole you might miss the remarkable achievements of Ichiro Suzuki. Does it matter if in the end the team reaches the same statistical milestones? Well, that’s what I’d like to try and answer.

What if you took two teams with comparable statistical outcomes, but one reflected a more balanced performance across all members of the lineup while the other had a few players who performed poorly and a few who were truly exceptional “superstar” types. Which is better? The end result, the aggregate, is more or less equal, in terms of runs scored, OBP, slugging, but the two differ in how they got there.

Lets look at two teams with some comparable aggregate statistics.

With a few exceptions these two teams are fairly similar, in fact they are ranked in succession offensively on fangraphs. Team 2 has a slightly higher OBP and walk rate while team 1 has a slightly higher AVG  and a few more runs. One major difference, however, is payroll. Team 1 has a payroll of $82,203,616 with an average salary of $2,935,843, while team 2 has a payroll of  $55,244,700 with an average salary of $1,973,025. Team 2 ended up with some remarkably comparable aggregate statistics for 27 million less in annual salary.

Some of you may have already guessed at the identity of team 2 by their payroll, they are of course Alderson’s old team the San Diego Padres, and they reflect the kind of on-base presence we’re used to with Alderson’s teams.

Team 1 is a playoff team that packs a whole lot more star power, they are the Cincinnati Reds. They sport a perennial MVP hitter at the center of their lineup not to mention some major power threats. The aggregate effect of their talent is more concentrated in a few truly exceptional players and is less the blanket product of a trickled down organizational principle.

Teams historically have attempted to piece-meal collective benchmarks into their lineups that they could not otherwise afford were these accomplishments a product of individual players.Teams like the Twins, the A’s, and the Braves have spent modestly, drafted wisely, and have developed consistently serviceable major league players, but there’s no such thing as a free lunch. These three teams have made the post season a whopping 33 times since 1975, but for all these appearances they have only 4 World titles between them. Seems like a statistical anomaly when for much of that time they were competing in a 4 team tournament doesn’t it? Good but not good enough in the post season — lacking those exceptional (and expensive) talents that might have pushed them over the top.

The problem is that lots of guys in the minors have a good eye but there aren’t that many Miguel Cabreras. Sure you can draft and develop with an eye on clogging the bases, and this approach might even get you to the playoffs, but once there who would you rather have come up in a tight spot against Matt Cain, Yonder Alonso and his .348 OBP or Joey Votto? Yonder might carry you during the regular season when you’re going up against league average more often than not, but I think you want Votto in there if you’re facing Roy Halladay in a deciding game. Institutionalized directives such as Alderson’s OBP bias and Beane’s desire to spread around dismembered Jason Giambis are all fine and dandy until the poop hits the fan and you end up staring down a Justin Verlander fastball. When the aggregate is equal, exceptional talent is the tiebreaker … the player who can actually hit a Verlander fastball out of the park or who can actually strike out Cabrera.

Exceptional talent must be met with exceptional talent if you want to win the big prize. There is simply no way around that. The Padres played “Alderson-ball” right up there with the Reds, they walked, they got on base, they hit, they even scored a similar number of runs, but in the end they sure didn’t win as many games. Why? While the Padres were able to perform according to many of the tenets of Alderson’s offensive philosophy, they didn’t have the exceptional abilities that the Reds have in other offensive domains, namely slugging and power skill sets that are considerably more expensive to procure. 

What does all this mean for the Mets? Building from the farm is great, being more selective and improving plate discipline system wide is terrific and may win lots of games. During the regular season an aggregate effect spread across a given lineup may wear down lesser opponents more often then not, but if you want to win big you have to augment with free agents possessing those harder to come by skill sets. If we ever wish to reach the promised land again our owners are going to have to open their wallets and spend big on the exceptional, those select few who can put you over the top.

Murphy has been complaining of stiffness since playing some second base in simulated game for five innings on Friday. He did not swing a bat. Since then, he has been complaining of stiffness and it appears his intercostal injury will keep him off the playing field indefinitely.

He was originally scheduled to participate in Minor League games this past weekend and then join the team in some actual Grapefruit League games at some point this week. Now that plan has been scratched.

“He’s pretty stiff again today,” said Mets head trainer Ray Ramirez on Sunday. The Mets plan to rest Murphy until at least Wednesday according to manager Terry Collins.

DiComo speculates that if Murphy is not ready to play by next weekend, there’s a good chance he will begin the year on the disabled list.

“If he’s not back in a game, we’re down to seven days,” Collins said. “That’s not a lot of time to get somebody that hasn’t done anything all spring ready.”

The backup option would be none other than Jordany Valdespin, who many thought would have no spot on the roster after working his way into Collins’ doghouse. But his hot play this spring changed everything and now guarantees ‘Spin not only a bench spot, but regular playing time somewhere in the lineup.

In 37 at-bats during Grapefruit League play, Valdespin is batting .378/.425/.703/1.128 with a team leading four home runs and eight RBIs.

As I said last week, I don’t really care how brash or how cocky a player is as long as he produces on the field. To me, performance always comes first and all the other stuff is just background noise.

There’s a catalyst-type quality about Valdespin that I love and he has a little bit of Jose Reyes in him. He brings a certain kind of electricity to the lineup when he’s in it and I always get the feeling that something good could happen at any moment when he’s in the game. I don’t get that with many of the other players on this team.

I heard through the grapevine that the lot of you are looking to Xtreem and I for fantasy advice. Yes, like thirsty wanderers in the desert of fantasy baseball who have found the well of knowledge, rest assured that the knowledge water… yeah, this analogy is not going anywhere.

So I was tasked with putting together the top 15 outfielders for the 2013 Fantasy Season to continue with our series – after Xtreem threw out an awesome analysis on the third base position yesterday. I followed his lead and grabbed the ESPN and Yahoo rankings as baselines, and then I went ahead from there.

Since most fantasy leagues use the standard fantasy categories of runs scored, home runs, RBI, stolen bases and batting average, I went with those categories in my rankings, as well. True, fantasy leagues can be set up to include any number of offensive categories, but the vast majority of leagues just stick with standard scoring, so I will as well. Two items to keep in mind: fantasy is offense only, so defense isn’t factored in the rankings, and because we’re using the standard fantasy categories, these rankings won’t represent the players’ real offensive value. (Xtreem mentioned this yesterday, but it was worded well, so I left it in for clarification.)

Gather the pitchforks, there was no Colin Cowgill! Now jokes aside, I am not an expert, but here goes…

15. Adrian Gonzalez (95/25/110/1/.302) – Many leagues will allow Adrian Gonzalez OF eligibility because he played 18 games in RF during the 2012 season, and this is a great draft to grab him. Gonzalez was once one of the most feared hitters in the entire MLB, hitting nearly 40 HRs every year with an average that hovered around .300. Although he hit a career-low in HRs with 18 in 2012, Gonzalez was still able to post a .299 average and drive in 108 runs. He also slammed 47 doubles, which is an overlooked stat. Gonzalez will never provide anything in the stolen base department that is worth mentioning, but I honestly think he is in line for a return to form with solid numbers across the board. The Dodgers look solid going ahead and Gonzalez should be a big part of that offensive unit.

14. Yoenis Cespedes (75/25/91/22/.280) – Quickly, name the three players that had double digit home runs and steals with a .300 average in the second half of 2012. Give up? Ryan Braun, Mike Trout, and Mr. Cespedes. Speaking as one of the owners who rolled the dice on Cespedes last year, I was rewarded with a solid season from a player that actually looked to improve as the season went along. He cut down on his swing-and-miss rate by 7% in the second half, and stole 12/16 bases after July 1st. I figure that his average will drop a little bit, but Cespedes played liked a seasoned athlete in the second half of last year and could actually improve on his numbers… However, I will not get ahead of myself just yet.

13. Jay Bruce (90/39/104/8/.260) – There is no mystery about Jay Bruce. Draft Jay Bruce, and you draft a guy that will immediately boost the power numbers for your team – but at the cost of a weaker average. Bruce, however, resides in a strong lineup and this provides him not only the opportunity to score runs, but to drive them in as well. If you can stomach the average, which is definitely not as bad as it gets, Bruce is a bonafide power threat and definitely worth an early draft pick.

12. Jacoby Ellsbury (88/19/60/35/.280) – Drafting Jacoby Ellsbury could be the biggest risk you take all year – but it could definitely turn out to be the difference between a championship or barely missing the playoffs. When healthy, Ellsbury is the type of player that every owner salivates over because he is passable in all five major categories, and is not too far removed from a ridiculous 2011 campaign where his fantasy line was 119/32/105/39/.321. Of course, it is impossible to ignore all the time he has spent on the DL over the past four years, so where exactly does that leave Ellsbury? It is all left up to you, of course, but if you asked me, I’d take the risk.

11. Justin Upton (100/22/75/18/.281) – I feel like Justin Upton is always on the brink of breaking out, yet he can never put all the pieces together for too long at one time. I have always avoided him during drafts myself, but this is the year where it is likely he could put it all together. He is surrounded by a ridiculously strong supporting cast and no longer has to deal with the cloud of trade rumors hanging above his head. Coming off a strong second half, the younger of the Upton brothers may finally have found himself in a good position to shatter old expectations…but for now, I think I will stay conservative.

10. Adam Jones (90/30/84/15/.280) – The consensus on Adam Jones is that he is a top-15 outfielder, and what reason is there to argue against at all? Jones was able to succeed as part of that amazing Orioles run in 2012, and he just happens to be going into that magic age-27 season in 2013. If Adam Jones posted the stat line I projected in 2013, I doubt many people would be surprised nor would they be complaining. The only knock I think I can understand against Jones is that he has basically reached his peak – but fantasy owners would still welcome him onto their teams if he could consistently post the numbers he did last year. He is a solid choice across the board, but keep an eye on his runs scored this year.

9. Jason Heyward (96/30/91/24/.265) – I had some trouble deciding between Heyward and Jones – and as you can see, I gave J-Hey the edge here. Heyward will no doubt post a lower average in comparison, but he bats in a lineup that is noticably more potent. This will not only lead to more RBI chances, but more runs scored as well, because I think the Braves will be outscoring the Orioles in 2013. Heyward will also likely steal a handful more bases than Jones and demonstrate the star potential that had scouts drooling over him when he made his debut a couple years ago. I hate to heap such praise on the product of a division rival, but Heyward has a lot of things going right for him moving forward and should contribute to any fantasy team in 2013.

8. Giancarlo Stanton (84/45/93/5/.270)  – Stanton could be the MLB HR King in 2013 – and the only reason that it comes into question is because the Marlins had yet another fire sale last offseason and have left Stanton with very little to work with. He will likely have to deal with being pitched around more often than anyone in the league moving forward, and although his power numbers should not suffer that much, the other fantasy stats likely will. Don’t worry too much about his home ball park being an embarrassment spacious place, because he was able to bat over .300 with 16 HRs there. This could be a dangerous year in terms of people overpaying for Stanton while he suffers based on pure circumstances, so tread carefully.

7. Josh Hamilton (100/35/117/6/.293) – Maybe I just like Josh Hamilton more than most, but I always find a silver lining in drafting or trading for the guy. Hamilton might be making the transition from Texas to Anaheim, but man, that lineup is stacked. He comes with some injury risk and some years behind him – and you probably will not see him crack the high .300 level for his batting average anymore. However, Hamilton has legendary power and can hit home runs wherever in the world his home ball park is. He does show some red flags, considering his increasing strikeout rate during the second half of 2012, but at least one more all-star caliber season lies in reserve for Josh Hamilton.

6. Carlos Gonzalez (95/25/87/25/.303) – We all know the drill with Carlos Gonzalez – he is a talented player who jumps even further into the spotlight because of Coors Field. Minor injuries here and there have derailed overall solid campaigns for Gonzalez, who pushes the envelope on touching a 30/30 season eventually. A healthy 2013 could mean he finally reaches that plateau. Nothing much has changed for CarGo – he can get you 25 home runs, 25 steals, a .300 average with some higher end runs scored and RBI numbers. Just be careful with how you play him on road trips. I never really drafted the guy because of his severe road/home splits, but his overall numbers obviously merit a high pick.

5. Andrew McCutchen (102/26/90/24/.301) – Did somebody ask for Carlos Gonzalez without the awful home/road split? Well, you got your wish. I think MC is one of the better all-around hitters in the game today, as he excels as making solid contact when he does hit the ball, resulting in a high line drive rate and enough home runs to satisfy most fantasy owners. His average from last year is definitely in line to drop due to a high BABIP, but there’s a ton to love about MC and there is reason to believe he can still hover around a .300 average. The Pirates lineup could use a little boost, but McCutchen can still be a potent addition to fantasy teams this year.

4. Matt Kemp (99/35/100/20/.300) – The hamstring injuries that Kemp dealt with last year might be enough to scare off enough even the most loyal Dodger fan, but Kemp can still produce at a high level. He was always considered a desirable player in fantasy, with the basic speed/power combo but with 40/40 potential at times – and a .300 average to boot. I am not as down on Kemp’s legs as most people are, so I’m giving him a little hope here with a 20-SB projection. Kemp could be a risky pick considering he is also coming off shoulder surgery, so keep tabs on the way he performs this Spring. A healthy Matt Kemp is a no-doubt first-rounder, and even though in a down year he can still provide pretty good numbers, you do not want to overpay.

3. Jose Bautista (101/43/120/5/.260) – It feels unnatural to doubt Jose Bautista at this point, even coming off an injury shortened season. His wrist injury slowed him down and eventually led to surgery last year, yet he still managed to hit 27 home runs in 332 ABs. If not Giancarlo Stanton, it could very well be Jose Bautista taking the title of MLB’s HR King in 2013 if he returns to form. Bautista was on a ridiculous tear in the last few years and the frequency at which he was launching home runs was unmatched in the post-steroid era. So far this March, he is showing no ill effects from his wrist surgery, so the general conclusion seems to be that Jose Bautista will remain a first-round pick.

2. Mike Trout (120/27/65/43/.290) – If not for the numbers tailing off towards the end of the 2012 season, not only might Mike Trout be your top fantasy outfielder and player, some people might actually have built shrines to him. However, it is not inconceivable to think that we saw Trout’s best season as a pro athlete last year. Trout, going in to next year, will be pressured to meet the standards of his rookie year – which might have been the best one in MLB history. That being said, a bad year for Mike Trout will likely amount to something among the top-5 of all outfielders and a repeat of last year is still not out of the question. By the time you blink, Trout’s name will be off the board – and in a few leagues, he will go first as well.

1. Ryan Braun (106/34/112/30/.314) – PED accusations aside, Ryan Braun is a fantasy stud and there is literally nothing else to say on the matter.

So a few things to note before you try to hurt me:

• The notable omissions were BJ Upton, Bryce Harper, and Matt Holliday. Harper is ranked fairly high by most experts – and this is key to why I dropped him out of the top 15. Cespedes has the potential to produce at the same level or even better than Harper does this year – while Adrian Gonzalez could be undervalued. On the flip side, Harper is going to fly off the boards due to the hype machine that permanently surrounds him and I would not recommend getting caught up in that. If he falls to you, feel free to jump on him – and if you’re in a keeper league, by all means, stretch for him. He will eventually breakout into a perennial MVP caliber player…but I just do not think it is in the stars for this year.
• Matt Holliday is a safer type of pick who can still get you great production, but be careful with his lingering back injuries. BJ Upton will likely produce at a high level, but his average is always unsightly and he is streaky as all hell. Ben Zobrist and Allen Craig might also be lower-end players to target who can get you top-15 production in one way or another with position flexibility, and you might be able to survive with some names like Josh Willingham, Nelson Cruz, Austin Jackson, or Hunter Pence who all have later ADPs.
• Michael Bourn and Brett Gardner are solid for SBs but will not help with power or average, while Chris Davis and Josh Reddick can provide some extra pop – but beware their averages as well.

If all goes well, you all will see some work on the top starting pitchers soon enough.

Welcome to the first installment of a yet to be determined number of installments Satish and I will be putting together on fantasy rankings for the upcoming season. This piece, about the top ten third basemen, will be followed by Satish’s rankings of outfielders and starting pitching, while I will subsequently add relief pitchers, as well.

Since most fantasy leagues use the standard fantasy categories of runs scored, home runs, RBI, stolen bases and batting average, I went with those categories in my rankings, as well. True, fantasy leagues can be set up to include any number of offensive categories, but the vast majority of leagues just stick with standard scoring, so I will as well. Two items to keep in mind: fantasy is offense only, so defense isn’t factored in the rankings, and because we’re using the standard fantasy categories, these rankings won’t represent the players’ real offensive value.

To begin, I wanted to see how Yahoo and ESPN ranked third basemen. Take a look. The numbers in parenthesis read as follows: RS/HR/RBI/SB/AVG.

The first thing that caught my attention was how optimistic ESPN is about the performances at the top of the list. That chasm-sized difference was a little surprising. The systems project entirely different seasons for both David Wright and Hanley Ramirez. What was not surprising is that both systems had the same ten players, even though there a general difference of opinion of placement.

My projections tend to fall somewhere in the middle, though I probably lean towards the optimistic side. My projections start with how the players have been trending the past few seasons and then are mixed with various ancillary factors pertaining to the individual player.

Here goes.

1. Miguel Cabrera (105/34/129/3/.322) – Cabrera should be the consensus first third basemen drafted, and in most leagues he’s the #1 overall pick. The return of Victor Martinez certainly lengthens the lineup behind Cabrera (who I assume will bat third in 2013), so that could mean an increase in runs scored. However, even for a hitter of Cabrera’s stature, his 2012 season was a peak and he’ll likely regress some. He out-homered his previous career high by six and surpassed his previous RBI high by twelve. What I see benefitting Cabrera in that regard is Austin Jackson finally being a mature enough hitter to put together a consistent season. Jackson had a tremendous first half of 2012, but fell off mightily in the second half and Cabrera’s RBI total suffered as a result, despite hitting eight more home runs in the second half. Something else to consider is that Cabrera was only intentionally walked 17 times in 2012. True, an equally fearsome hitter was on deck, but Cabrera was so punishing offensively, I think there will be a handful of instances where the opposing manager would rather just give Cabrera one base instead of risking extra bases, thus lowering his RBI total and his run scored, because he won’t be in scoring position quite as much for the next two hitters. That’s not a significant point to consider, but three or four RBI and runs scored can be a big difference in fantasy baseball.
2. Evan Longoria (98/36/111/4/.291) – My most optimistic projection, I see this year as the year Longoria stays healthy, which is why I see an MVP-type season for the Rays third baseman. I like the addition of Yunel Escobar and James Loney to the lineup, replacing Elliot Johnson and Carlos Peña, respectively. It affords Longoria better pitches to hit and also a better chance of being driven in with both those guys likely hitting behind him. Desmond Jennings should re-emerge after a 2012 sophomore slump and add Kelly Johnson and his .340-.350 OBP and some pop hitting second and Longo will have plenty of RBI opportunities. I really like Longoria as a steal in the late-second round.
3. David Wright (101/26/103/17/.310) – There is two main factors involved in my somewhat optimistic projection for Wright. The obvious one is a healthy Ike Davis hitting behind him. The second is the return of his K% to around 17% in 2012, down from the roughly 22% it was at from 2009-2011. Wright seemed to use the whole field more and stopped trying to pull pitches on the outer half. The result was better contact, a line drive percentage more towards his career average and the best offensive season he had since 2008. I don’t think he’ll quite regain that form, but he’ll continue to build on last year’s success.
4. Ryan Zimmerman (95/27/98/2/.289) – The addition of Denard Span and a full season of a more experienced Bryce Harper will do wonders for Zimmerman’s season. Jayson Werth is healthy now and showed that his patience at the plate that went missing in 2011 had returned after he recovered from a broken wrist towards the end of 2012. So if he’s back on track as a significant middle-of-the-order threat along with Adam LaRoche, that puts Zimmerman right smack in the middle of Span/Harper and LaRoche/Werth. I like that for fantasy owners.
5. Adrian Beltre (85/27/91/2/.289) – My advice to fantasy players is to stay away from Beltre this season. I think he’ll have a nice season, but he’s probably a mid-second round pick based on recent history and I feel his production is a wasted pick in that spot. I don’t think it can be overstated what the loss of Josh Hamilton and Michael Young in that lineup will do to Beltre’s numbers. Besides fewer RBI chances and fewer boppers behind him to drive him in, he won’t see as many fastballs and will be pitched around far more often than he was. He’s still a real good hitter and still plays in a bandbox and will therefore be productive, but I’m certain come October, there will be a significant difference between what his average draft position (ADP) says his numbers should have been and what his numbers actually were.
6. Hanley Ramirez (90/26/71/29/.270) – The fact is, there were only ten 20-20 guys in baseball in 2012 and he was the only third baseman. There’s intrinsic value in being comparable to your peers in most categories, but able to compete in a category none of your other peers can at the same time, and no other third baseman will steal even 20 bases this season. Ramirez will finish with a pedestrian batting average, modest runs scored and RBI totals, a competitive home run total, but stolen bases is where his value lies. My projection is based on Ramirez leading off. Until Carl Crawford is actually playing, I don’t factor him in the lineup. Something to keep in mind is that if and when Crawford does return and the surgically repaired elbow zaps him of the modest pop he used to have, Crawford could move into the leadoff role and move Ramirez down in the order to a place he’d see more RBI chances. That could also come at the expense of his runs scored total, however. It’s something you should keep your eye on.
7. Brett Lawrie (78/18/81/20/.277) – This is where it got tough for me. You can probably argue that any of the next four guys could rank anywhere from 7-10. I went with Lawrie based on his youth and his lineup. Lawrie will only get better from this point forward, and he’ll have a ton of RBI opportunities in 2013. He’s got solid pop in a hitter-friendly park. The only thing that’s holding him back is the weak bottom of the order for the Jays. They have one of the best top-fives, but nothing to protect Lawrie when he hits, likely in that 5^th spot. The Catch-22 here is that Lawrie, as of right now, isn’t disciplined or mature enough as a hitter to bat second, which would change his season stats-wise. Lawrie owners should also monitor Melky Cabrera’s season. If the PEDs really did play a big role in his recent production and he returns to the fringe player he once was, Lawrie will likely move to that second spot whether he’s ready or not and that’ll spike his numbers considerably. I don’t expect that to happen right away, so for now, I see a him remaining in that 5th spot, driving in runs, but not scoring a considerable amount.
8. Chase Headley (77/19/82/19/.271) – Headley’s coming out party last season was a huge boon to those who drafted him at an ADP of 224. One of the best bargains all of last season. Unfortunately for Headley owners, the book is out. Headley is still a viable fantasy option, but he’s going to need breakout seasons by both Everth Cabrera and Yonder Alonso, along with 550 healthy plate appearances from Carlos Quentin if he’s going to see any fastballs. The rest of the league knows what he’s capable of. He’s the star and biggest threat in that lineup and teams won’t let him beat them. He, like Beltre, won’t be worth the pick at his ADP (51^st overall).
9. Pablo Sandoval (83/20/82/4/.291) – Panda will be hitting behind Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, so I don’t love his chances at significant RBIs. While Hunter Pence won’t put up Philadelphia-type numbers in San Francisco, I think this is the year Brandon Belt puts it all together, so that’s a wash as far as his protection in the lineup. I think Panda is a good hitter with good power, but he plays in a pitcher’s park and doesn’t have a great lineup around him, so his numbers will be a little deflated because of those two factors. Third base is pretty deep this year, and I don’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of difference between Panda and his ADP around 76 and, say Mike Moustakas (ADP of 160) in the four counting stats, but Pablo gets his kudos for his batting average. It wouldn’t surprise me if he hits .300, but I think he’d need a big second half to reach it.
10. Aramis Ramirez (80/23/87/3/.285) – I remember drafting Ramirez in 2002 after his monster year in 2001, only to see him fall off the face of the earth. I stayed away in 2003, only to see him rebound, then move on to Chicago where he became the kind of hitter that would likely be 3^rd or 4^th on this list. My biggest knock on Ramirez is that he’s 34 years old and hasn’t played 150 games since 2006, just missing the mark the last two seasons. The hitters behind him don’t impress me much, although Jonathan Lucroy was on his way to a breakout season before it was derailed by injury in 2012. Much will depend on him because if he poses no threat as Ramirez’s protection, there’s not going to be much setting Ramirez apart from the aforementioned Moustakas. I’ll even go as far as bumping Ramirez off this list in favor of David Freese if you happen to be playing in a keeper league. I can easily see Freese with the same numbers, but he’ll only get better, whereas Ramirez career is in its twilight.

A couple more notes on third basemen this year:

• Long-term for those in keeper leagues, I think Manny Machado has a higher upside than Will Middlebrooks, but I think Middlebrooks has the better 2013 and 2014 seasons. Machado is still so young and it’ll be a couple of years before he begins to really exploit the potential he has.
• A lot of people are disrespecting Kevin Youkilis this season. I think he’s playing for an organization that plays to his strengths and that surrounds him with a very good lineup. His ADP is all the way at 196, but I see his fantasy numbers looking somewhat like 90/22/90/2/.275 if he’s healthy. That hasn’t been the case recently, which I expect is why he’s getting drafted around the 17^th round, but if you’re strong in enough other positions, don’t be afraid to “reach” for Youk in the 13^th or 14^th and nab him as your starter.
• Keeper league folks, pay close attention to Rockies stud Nolan Arenado. He’s tearing it up in spring training and could actually come north with the Rockies and begin immediately. He isn’t even getting drafted in a very large majority of the leagues, and even if he’s rushed, could still produce as well as any backup you could find outside the top 20, and you’d have him as a keeper forever. His potential is widely known and he may be asked to reach it sooner rather than later.

Stay tuned for Satish’s outlook on the top fantasy outfielders for 2013.

Duda left camp briefly to be examined for a non-baseball-related health issue, reports Marc Carig of Newsday.

General manager Sandy Alderson categorized the issue as minor and Duda refused to elaborate.

“Everything’s good,” he said.

Manager Terry Collins told reporters that Duda might also be out of the lineup for this afternoon’s  game against the Marlins.

Since coming off the disabled list, Angel Pagan has been a hitting machine.

With his hot return, it begs the question of whether Terry Collins should re-insert Pagan into the No. 2 spot in the lineup.

As Pagan regains his stroke, Justin Turner continues handling the bat well, which is ideal for a No. 2 hole hitter.

Daniel Murphy has also been hitting well as of late and may see time in the second spot once Ike Davis and David Wright return, though the timetable for that is very uncertain.

Pagan back in the two hole might be just what the Mets need to maintain a consistent offensive attack atop the order. Jose Reyes has been getting on base at an incredible rate and needs someone behind him that will constantly drive him in or move him over so someone else can drive him in.

Pagan can do both of these tasks very well. However, Turner has shown a similar prowess.

If the Mets decide to keep Turner in the No. 2 spot, Pagan would continue hitting in the sixth position as more of a run producer. He has the tools to fill this role, but it is not as suited for his game.

Pagan is a better two hole hitter for this team based on the one major advantage he has over Turner: speed. Turner is by no means slow, but he is a double-play candidate if he hits a hard ground ball. Avoiding an instant double-play whenever Reyes gets on base is key for the Mets in scoring runs.

Turner has also shown a little pop, which makes him a good fit for the sixth or seventh position in the batting order.

Collins will experiment with Pagan in leadoff position in the second game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, since Reyes has been placed on the bereavement list for the death of his grandmother.

Depending on how this works out, Pagan may settle into the top of the order, but in the second spot instead of the first.

This would be the possible batting order: Reyes, Pagan, Beltran, Bay (which I don’t like but does create a balance), Murphy, Turner, Catcher, Tejada. It’s not exactly Murderer’s Row, but it’s a lineup that can rely on speed and timely hitting to manufacture runs.

We’ll see what Collins decides to do for the long haul. Though I’d like to see Pagan in the two hole, I’d love to hear other opinions on why or why not this is a good fit.

Follow me on Twitter @ JMMancari.

Moneyball

Michael Lewis’ masterpiece begins with five high school kids performing  multiple drills for scouts with the hope of being drafted. One of them stands out significantly over the other four; his name is Billy Beane. Beane was so unbelievably talented in the eyes of baseball’s scouts that the hype for him to make it to the majors was comparable to what we experienced with Stephen Strasburg. Beane was the poster child of a five-tool player. His fatal flaw though, was himself. Beane could not learn plate discipline, but even more importantly, his anger destroyed his playing ability. Beane would have been the first overall pick if he had not been torn on whether to go to college or to sign on with the team that drafts him, making him a risky draft choice. After being picked first round, 23rd overall, Beane ultimately decided to take the money and sign with the Mets, commencing his career in professional baseball. Unfortunately, Beane could not find any success in the majors; his numbers, especially sabermetric stats, were terrible. As a result,  nine years after being drafted in the 1st round, at the age of 27, Beane was no longer a player, but beginning instead his new career in the Oakland A’s front office.

Beane began working under Oakland’s GM Sandy Alderson, who turns him onto the idea of sabermetrics. Alderson, a military man and an ivy league graduate, got into baseball because of a man by the name of Bill James, the founder of sabermetrics. Alderson kept a stack of his books on his desk and when Beane came to Alderson, he gave him those books to read and learn from. Needless to say, Beane was hooked.

Fast forwarding to Beane as the GM of the A’s, Moneyball sheds light on his secret weapon behind his genius methods, Paul DePodesta. DePodesta, now scouting director of the Mets under new GM Sandy Alderson, used OBP and whatever other statistics his computer could generate in order to find the players most likely to have success in the majors, the A’s were not looking to “sell jeans”.

In one excerpt, DePodesta tries to get a word in to the scouts, who could care less what he had to say. They probably should have listened:

“Paul said the scouts ought to go have a look at a college kid named Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis was a fat third baseman who couldn’t run, throw or field. What was the point of going to see that? (Because, Paul would be able to say three months later, Kevin Youkilis has the second highest on-base percentage in all of professional baseball, after Barry Bonds.)”

As clearly shown in Moneyball, Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s were not just a few signings that he got lucky on, but carefully orchestrated acquisitions that not only benefited the current ballclub, but the A’s of the future. The idea of drafting carefully to produce star players, retaining them until the end of their contracts and then getting more high draft picks to produce even more stars has kept Oakland in contention while retaining their small market status. Any player the A’s lost to free agency could be easily replaced with a no-names like Scott Hatteberg, Chad Bradford or John Mabry and have the same measure of success, in most cases even more success, than with a marquee name like Barry Zito or Jason Isringhausen.

Even when the A’s lost Jason Isringhausen, Johnny Damon and Jason Giambi following their 102-win season in 2001 and were written off as a guaranteed last place team by any and every baseball analyst out there, they managed to outdo themselves the following season, winning 103 games, just as many as the Yankees had won, except the A’s did it with one fourth of the payroll the Yankees had. He proved they weren’t just some miracle fluke team, but that they were a team that could show perennial success without spending hand over fist.

Bud Selig was trying to get support for the idea of revenue sharing to help poorer, smaller market teams compete with the rich, successful teams. Selig’s biggest argument was that small market teams simply could not have the same year-after-year dominance that teams like the Yankees had. Beane blew his theory out of the water with the Oakland A’s. The second smallest budget in the big leagues had won 100+ games two straight seasons with a no-name lineup and a few starting pitchers. Beane made the baseball world stop and re-think everything that they thought they already about the game. He shattered many of the old ideas.

Beane’s method of Moneyball, very similar but somewhat different than sabermetrics, was to eliminate the concepts of ERA, RBIs, runs, etc, and to build the A’s around who were the best run producers and the best out-makers. As it turns out, these ballplayers tended to be very affordable and extremely undervalued. Beane was looking to eliminate from his club the free swingers and the players without plate discipline. He was looking to get rid of the exact type of ballplayer he once was.

 Not only did he succeed in creating his lineup of eight OBP-centered players, but he overcame the disbelief from other clubs and reporters to show that he had something, something big, something that could change the way the rest of the league and its fans looked at baseball.

Moneyball is one of the greatest baseball books ever written, if not the greatest. It is Michael Lewis’ crowning achievement, hands down. Combining not only baseball stats and analysis, but the stories and reasoning behind it. Perfectly blending the facts, his and others’ opinions, stats, and even some humor thrown in Lewis has created a genuine timeless masterpiece.

Moneyball is more than just sabermetrics, the Oakland A’s or even baseball. Moneyball is the story of one man with an amazing, astounding new way that comes face-to-face with an entire social order, unchanged for over 150 years, facing countless critics and doubters along the way, and ultimately emerges on top. Whether you are a Moneyball supporter or the opposition, we can all appreciate someone who stands up for what they truly believe and continue to work at it, and emerge victorious.

The best way to sum up this book in one sentence is from a review done by Nat Newell:

“Open this book…and your mind.”

Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

I feel compelled to pen something before the end of this year, although it is a year that we would all like to forget as Mets fans.  We have had almost nothing to brag about during the off-season as fans of the Metropolitans except that we have returning players that may help us before the All Star break and that is not even a guarantee, i.e. Johan Santana.  We did sign Ronny Paulino, no disrespect meant to Mr. Paulino.

When you look at the money spent on this team, they have guaranteed contracts of $121.67 million for the 2011 season so far and in comparison, our rivals to the south of us in Philadelphia have $138.178 million in committed money and have a stud lineup and pitching staff.  What went wrong?

Spending money in a haphazard way has done nothing to make our team better; we signed Jason Bay for a ballpark that requires speed and pitching.  We signed Luis Castillo, who on a good Sunday afternoon in August is playing on one leg, and I don’t even want to mention Ollie Perez.

Maybe it is time to trade some of the “cornerstones”.  I frankly would trade Wright and re-sign Reyes to a long term deal, you can always get a hard hitting third baseman, but a game changer like Reyes, in Citifield? Who’s better?

Just take a look at this link and you will see that we signed guys who are simply disjointed pieces and that there was probably no plan. The plan may have had something to do with appeasing a fan base, because the Yankees always appear to spend big.

In business when you have problems like this, you fire the CEO and start over, that is what is going on in Flushing and we have to give Sandy Alderson some time and we are all looking forward to the 2012 season.  Oh, I will watch the games this upcoming season, I always do, maybe some of the youngsters will help us through the season with hope for the future, but at this point it is all about the money and there is no more to spend.

I don’t know if the plight of the Mets has anything to do with Bernie Madoff, but it is sad that we as Mets fans support our team and the owners have decided to support an incompetent front office too long without a plan.  It would appear that the owners current  plan is to turn the team over to another steward, who I hope knows what he is doing.  We do have an All Star team in the front office for sure and we have spent more money on front office personnel than we have on our rotation and bullpen.

I look forward to the future; let’s hope that the front office has some great New Year’s resolutions, because the future is so bright you have to wear shades.  Remember when someone tells you it’s not about the money, it’s always about the money.

Let’s Go Mets.

Written and contributed by Dennis Savitsky.