Blue chip pitching prospects are professional sports’ most delicate flower. Except, unlike a flower, no scientifically proven method has been established regarding proper cultivation.

There’s no “right” way to bring a teenager up through an organization’s system while still absolutely maximizing his production at the major league level. And in the back of everyone’s mind lingers the possibility to a debilitating injury that is always one pitch away.

For every David Price or Matt Moore who’s appeared to have bloomed with relative ease, a dozen Mark Prior or Joba Chamberlain clones lay crumpled on muddy soil.

Coddling a prospect by hawk-eyeing his pitches and innings hasn’t proven to do more bad than good, but it hasn’t proven to do more good than bad either. Once a prospect is inside the system, fertilization can be a high stakes game of roulette.

Should he start? Should he come out of the pen? Should more pitches be added to his arsenal? Should he focus on developing a curve? Is he throwing too much heat?

But the lure of what a young blue chip pitching prospect brings to an organization is enough to make all the stress worth it. Even though they only contribute once every five days, a sturdy starting pitcher is any good baseball team’s foundation.

Momentum will never be strong enough to overcome ace starters like Justin Verlander or C.C. Sabathia once they take the mound. The fear they instill in the opposing team is unmatched.

The New York Mets are lucky enough to be holding two aces in their hand right now: Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey. The former is currently sporting an ERA of 4.80 in Pacific Coast League Triple-A, while the latter is making major league hitters look like kids on a sandlot, and through the season’s opening month is arguably the National League’s best starting pitcher.

Harvey is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA, and, well, despite averaging 10.62 strikeouts per nine innings in 10 starts last season (a number that would place him in the top 10 so far this season, where he happens to be anyway, with 10.2 strikeouts per nine), those numbers are still a little shocking.

In 2012 he averaged nearly four walks per nine innings. This season his control has been even better, as he’s down to 2.68.

That’s not all he’s shown.

So far this season, Harvey ranks fourth throughout baseball in Wins Above Replacement (second behind only Clay Buchholz among pitchers), fifth in ERA, third in WHIP, second in hits per nine innings, and eighth in strikeouts.

He’s throwing an impractical 90 mile per hour slider about once every five pitches, and is dominating with his high heat, which averages 95 mph and tops off at about 98 mph.

Before the year began, most projections had him as a solid starter in New York’s rotation—after all, the process of bringing along a prospect with Harvey’s skill is supposed to be slow and careful—but through the first month he’s blowing by everything anyone thought he could accomplish so soon.

Wheeler is two years younger than Harvey, and has yet to throw one pitch at the Major League level. But he’s striking out 10.8 hitters per nine innings through 30 minor league innings this season (six starts), despite having trouble gripping the ball.

Harvey appears to have already come along, and Wheeler should be following soon enough. If the Mets can successfully oversee both of them reaching their full potential for years to come, it’ll be viewed as a serious job well done. Two flowers are always better than none.

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This Fan Shot was contributed by Michael Pina who is also a writer for ESPN’s TrueHoop Network. His work has been published on The Classical and ScoreBig. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelVPina.

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Matt Harvey has been compared to some of the biggest names of the game both past and present. Whether it’s because of his lethal arsenal, his no-nonsense demeanor on the mound, or just his determination to keep getting better. In 14 starts he is breaking down long-standing records with such ease.

While expectations and pressure like that would crush most young players, Matt Harvey thrives on it. I was especially taken by his reaction on Friday night when fans at Citi Field roared with the chants of “Har-Vey’s Better! Har-Vey’s Better” with every pitch Stephen Strasburg threw.

It was amazing to watch both pitcher’s reactions as the SNY camera crew went to a split screen. There was Harvey sitting on the bench – looking all business and wiping his face with a towel. He was immune to what was happening on the field and didn’t allow himself to be captured by the moment. On the mound however, you could tell Strasburg was being rattled.

Pressure and expectations is a crazy thing. For many players it’s their death knell, but not for Harvey. This kid has ice running through his veins.

There’s more to Harvey than meets the eye and it may take years until we figure out what makes him tick. Baseball has always been a game of comparisons, but most often the comparisons are unfounded and the expectations are never met. So far, it looks like Harvey will be the exception to that rule. Gregg Jefferies never did become the next Ty Cobb, and the teenage hitting machine Fernando Martinez never did become the next Roberto Clemente.

“A lot of guys can throw 98,’’ manager Terry Collins said. “I like his competitive make-up. … Fear of failure is not in Matt Harvey’s make-up.’’

You know what else stood out from Friday night? Harvey’s comments after the game.

“I’ve got a long way to go,’’ Harvey said. “I appreciate the fans and the support and all that. But we’re here to win. We’re the New York Mets. It’s not just one guy out there. Every time I take the ball I’m trying to win for the team.”

Spoken like a true leader…

And for those of you who keep saying you want to see how Harvey would react in a tough situation, how does the the bases loaded with nobody out against the team who won more games than any other team last season sound? Is that challenging enough for you?

Harvey worked out of the jam with ease. “That’s a tough lineup, he said. “At any point it felt like it could unravel and things could have gone the other way.’’

However it didn’t unravel. Harvey bore down like a warrior and slammed the door on their offense. ”That’s the mark of an ace right there,’’ Collins said. “That’s why we can’t say enough things about him. Games like this can lead to a great season.”

Can you believe that there are still some Mets fan who haven’t bought into Harvey yet? It’s true. I’ve seen the doubts and speculation right here on our comment threads. They remain cautiously optimistic waiting for the bubble to burst. It’s hard to believe that 14 starts or basically a half season, and non-believers still abound.

I’m seeing some of the best raves and optimism about Harvey from non-Mets and rival fans. One Yankee fan told Me, “I can’t believe you got, Harvey. You’re so freaking lucky.”

David Price and Curt Schilling are also on the Matt Harvey bandwagon. So are Michael Kay and Mike Francesa. So are Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. So are R.A. Dickey, Jon Lester and Justin Verlander.

So am I and most of MMO. I actually have been since day one.

I’ve seen a meteoric rise like one this twice before as Met fan. The first time was with with “The Franchise” Tom Seaver, and then two decades later I saw it again with “Doctor K’ Dwight Gooden. I became emotionally invested from day with those two Mets icons too, just like I am now with Harvey. As a Met fan, I always did take “Ya Gotta Believe” very seriously. Times have changed, but I’m still old-fashioned that way.

Its always interesting when you hear the opposing press rave about a player. Patrick Reusse, legendary Twin Cities sportswriter, and a few others peppered me with questions about Harvey as I was one of the first members of the Mets press to arrive last Saturday before Harvey’s start.

“How hard does he throw?” “How’s his command?  “How’s his breaking ball?” “Is he as good as he was last year?”

They were clearly intrigued by our phenomenal young starter.

“He reminds me of Tom Seaver,” I said, “Big righthander, late life up in the zone with his fastball. His strikeout rates are actually comparable, maybe a little better.”

Funny thing, don’t mention Tom Seaver to Patrick Reusse. While Tom Terrific is revered in Met circles like no one else, I quickly realized following a remarkably colorful string of expletives (that all but made me spit my coffee out laughing), this isn’t necessarily the case in other circles.

“Harvey seems like a nice kid,” I interjected. “Soft spoken, low key.”

Reusse raised his eyebrows and laughed, “He sure isn’t like that on the mound.”

I had to concur there, Mr. Harvey is all business when he takes the hill.

“I think he’s actually been better than he was last year, his command is better.” I said, as Mr. Reusse did a double take.

Harvey’s biggest goal in the off-season and during the spring, by his own admission, was to improve his command so that he could work deeper into games. So far so good.

His changeup and slider have been working well, he’s been able to mix his pitches and change speeds both with his fastball and his changeup  He’s worked his slider inside to left-handed batters, using it almost like a cut fastball with marvelous effectiveness (one notable exception), while spotting his fastball with pinpoint accuracy.

Harvey’s also been able to dial up his velocity in key spots late in games, causing you to overhear things like “reminds me of Justin Verlander that way.”

Harvey mentioned during the press briefing that his curveball needs some work, that it’s been up at times. Difficult to imagine what he’ll be like if he can get his breaking pitch working right.

Below are a collection of quotes by his teammates from the post game press conference following his last start:

Kevin Burkhardt: Asks Marlon Byrd, “After 13 starts does he wow you a little bit with the way he pitched tonight?”

Marlon Byrd: “He looks like he’s pitched 1,300. He’s one of those guys, certain guys, you know he’s bringing it to the table, that bulldog mentality.”

“To be young and throw 97 and be able to use his other pitches like he does. He hits his spots. You know he’s going to work hard and we’re going to work hard for him. It”s nice, it’s nice when he’s out there, you try to get a run or two and you know you have a chance to win.”

Burkhardt: Asks John Buck, “What has it been like catching his first 3 starts?”

Buck: “Yeah it”s a lot of fun, gives you a lot of weapons to work with. The most exciting part about it is right after, he wants to evaluate his starts, to say, ‘hey, what could we have done better here and here,’ he’s not satisfied. He knows there’s room to improve. He also liked to go over some of the good sequences as well , he’ definitely looking to get better.”

Burkhardt: ”When he asks you what can he do to get better, what do you tell him?”

Buck: “Usually it’s like a sequence I know, like a certain particular sequence, or a hitter, or when he’s had a long inning, being ready for the first hitter, little things like that, he pays attention to detail, those are the little things he wants to get better at and repeat better. That’s exciting for me.”

On whether Buck was worried about how the home run would affect his mindset:

Buck: “Yeah, no, that’s one of his pluses. To be able to stay focused. I don’t think we’ll ever see Harv back off. If anything I have to ask him to, especially in that situation. I think David went out there to see but he quickly turned away. I think he saw he (Harvey) was pretty locked in.”

* * * * * * * * * * * *

For Met fans, the excitement in the air every time Harvey starts is palpable. We find ourselves throwing out “not since … ” comments with every batter he blows away, with every overpowering high fastball.

You don’t want to miss a pitch, you hurry and grab a sandwich before his next inning. But what continues to impresses me like nothing else after these first three starts of his season is his demeanor, his understated intensity and his desire to improve.

This kid is the definition of “special.”

We’ve got a good one on our hands Mets fans.

Clayton – Jordany Valdespin, I see Cowgill getting a hot start then hitting a wall. Valdespin however I could see being the best run producer in the outfield in 2013.

Adam – Collin Cowgill because he’s a better defender and has better plate discipline/selection at the plate. Valdespin will hit for more power and be a question mark on defense, while Cowgill will produce better on-base numbers to go along with decent defense.

XtreemIcon – Jordany has the higher ceiling and more talent. Given equal playing time, he should outperform Cowgill. But the key phrase is “equal playing time.” We’ve seen how Valdy has not endeared himself to management, for a variety of reasons. However, production makes everything better.

Joe S. - JV1 as long as he protects himself from his own over-inflated ego and Justin Verlander fastballs.

Satish – Valdespin, but I have to admit, I am really starting to like what I see out of Cowgill. Something about Valdespin’s approach at the plate, in a small sample size of course, seems a little more mature so far and I would like to hope he worked out some of the kinks in his free-swinging ways. My only experience watching Cowgill has been his time here in Spring Training, and while I do like it, I am hesitant to completely jump on the bandwagon yet. I always thought Valdespin could work out to be a poor man’s Brandon Phillips – lite.

Craig L. – I think ‘Spin is a flash in the pan having a great spring. Cowgill will be more consistent have his coming out party in 2013.

Jessica – I think Cowgill will because he’ll get more of a chance than Valdespin. Cowgill has pretty much locked his spot on the Opening Day roster and Terry Collins will keep him around, not only because he’s an outfielder, but he’s an outfielder that hits the ball.

Dan V. – Jordany Valdespin hands down. Attitude aside, Valdespin is probably the most talented overall player on the Mets roster right now. If he keeps his mind right, he will steal a starting job, possibly in center, and lead the team in stolen bases and triples.

Paul Z. - If Valdespin, has his head on straight, and it seems he does, he has all the potential.

Daniel N. – ‘Spin, ‘Spin, ‘Spin! That’s no slight to Cowgill whose been having a great spring, but I think Valdespin can be used in more situations, which will give him better numbers. ‘Spin has quickness and power. He can hit almost anywhere in the lineup and can platoon in more positions.

Gregg – Tough choice between Valdespin & Cowgill, but Cowgill could become an icon here, if he plays well. After all who couldn’t use some more Cowgill?

Elliot – Jordany Valdespin. He worked a lot on plate patience in the off-season and it will pay off big time.

AL West At A Glance

Los Angeles Angels: What’s there to say about the Angels? They have the best lineup in baseball and one of the game’s top pitchers in Jered Weaver. C.J. Wilson is solid, though there are some concerns after that. Joe Blanton, Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson are all back end starters and there’s a huge bridge between the top two and bottom three. They should score a ton of runs, though. Their bullpen is very deep. They also probably sport the best defense around the diamond, as well. The division is deeper than the AL Central, otherwise I’d peg them as 100-game winners along with the Tigers.

Oakland Athletics: I went back and forth between the Rangers and Athletics for second place and ultimately settled on Oakland because of their loaded pitching staff. Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin are as talented a young rotation as there is in baseball. There’s a health issue with Anderson, clearly the team’s ace talent-wise, and rookie Dan Straily will be the fifth starter and all he did was lead all of the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2012, despite only starting 25 games prior to his callup. The A’s scored the second most runs in the league after the All Star Break and Yoenis Cespedes will be better after getting acclimated to the bigs. Josh Reddick emerged, but needs to be more consistent at the plate. First baseman Brandon Moss had a second half to remember, hitting .291/.358/.596 with 21 home runs and 18 doubles in only 296 plate appearances.

Texas Rangers: Jurickson Profar is going to infuse a lot of good karma into the Rangers, and they need it, especially after they lost their last four games of the season (three regular season games and the one-game playoff against Baltimore) and went from winning their division to watching the playoffs on TV. Compounding matters, the team let megastar Josh Hamilton leave via free agency to their bitter rivals in Anaheim and spent free agency locking up a pair of 37-year-olds in Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski. They can’t afford anything less than big years from just about everyone in their lineup. They do have a strong rotation, led by ace Yu Darvish, followed by Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando, a 2011 All Star. Colby Lewis should return from surgery in June. Joe Nathan really needs to keep his head on a swivel. The Rangers are shorthanded in the pen, but if Nathan can keep the ninth inning under wraps, he’ll get some much needed help from Joakim Soria and Neftali Feliz, both due back from Tommy John surgery in May and August respectively.

Seattle Mariners: I really like what the Mariners did this offseason. Unlike the Indians who made win-now moves when they are clearly not ready to win now, the Mariners signed older veterans to short term deals and added Michael Morse who’s playing out his final arbitration year and is ready to be locked up. They added Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez as their righty and lefty bats off the bench, both of whom should have significant clubhouse influence, as well. Jesus Montero should be ready to break out and start flashing the potential he showed in the Yankees minor league system, making him one of baseball’s top prospects for several years. Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley need to join Montero and hold their own coming out party and Franklin Gutierrez needs to stay healthy. And I can’t say enough about Michael Saunders in right field. He showed last season he has “star” written all over him. Oh. They also have Felix Hernandez. Much like the Royals, they are a year or two away, provided they continue to make these savvy acquisitions.

Houston Astros: The Astros are the only reason the Twins aren’t the worst team in the league. Houston lost 213 games the last two seasons in a division in which they played the Pirates and the Cubs 36 times. Now they move to a division with three legitimate playoff caliber teams and the Mariners, a far better team than the Pirates or Cubs. It could get ugly. There are some bright spots on the team. Ace Lucas Harrell is a promising arm, but needs to get the walks down. Second baseman Jose Altuve was an All Star last season but actually deserved it, not because the Astros had to have one by rule. Matt Dominguez at third base is a top prospect, acquired from the Marlins as part their attempt to make fools of baseball fans in Miami. Justin Maxwell has all the tools (and I mean all of them), but he just hasn’t figured out how to use them yet. He’s too old to be a prospect anymore, but he’s young enough to still be able to put it together. If he finally does, he could join Altuve for All Star weekend on his own merit. They do have five players in Baseball America’s Top 100, but only two of them even saw AA action in 2012. On second thought, it will get ugly.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners, Astros

Jessep: Angels, Mariners, Athletics, Rangers, Astros

Joe D: Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Astros

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Jesus Montero

Jessep: Jason Bay

Joe D: Jarrod Parker

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Jurickson Profar

Jessep: Brandon Maurer

Joe D: Jurickson Profar

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: Jered Weaver

Jessep: Felix Hernandez

Joe D: Felix Hernandez

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Mike Trout

Jessep: Albert Pujols

Joe D: Mike Trout

Up Next: National League West

However, last night’s USA-Puerto Rico elimination match was compelling, far more interesting than your average Mets-Marlins spring training game. That interest was generated by the passion in the stands. The WBC means more in terms of national pride to the teams and fans in Asia and Latin America than to the United States.

Puerto Rico is now in the international sports spotlight. The American players who are always in the spotlight can now return to their major league teams and big contracts.Nationalism represented some of the motivational fuel for Nelson Figueroa, a journeyman pitcher who has toiled for six teams in parts of nine years – including the Mets – but pitched like a star last night in sending the United States home for the third straight time.

Figueroa was special, doing what he used to do at times with the Mets, which was burn innings. But, last nigh he gave Puerto Rico six shutout innings in his 80-pitch allotment. Working both sides of the plate effectively with everything but an electric fastball, he gave US hitters nothing to hit.

Putting on a show was the rest of his motivational fuel.

“We were supreme underdogs against that lineup,’’ Figueroa told reporters. “It was motivation to show them what kind of pitcher I was.’’

Maybe he showed what kind of pitcher he can be to somebody with the power to make a decision on his career as so many other have done.

Figueroa was signed by Arizona to a minor league contract as organizational depth in December. If Figueroa were higher on the pitching food chain, but not good enough to be a given, he might have been better off in spring training.

However, in this case, showing what he could do against major league hitters should count for more points than a couple of innings against the Dodgers minor leaguers.

Sometime this year, the Diamondbacks or somebody else, will have a sudden need for an arm and think back at how Figueroa toyed with the US lineup.

Figueroa is not flashy. He does not have a great fastball or singular dominant pitch. What he has is command of the corners and guile. When both are on he’s tough to beat.

“I don’t throw very hard, but I pitch inside,’’ Figueroa said, giving us his personal scouting report. “It was a great exhibition of what can be done without a plus fastball. It was an opportunity to demonstrate that good pitching beats good hitting.’’

That’s the way it always has been and always will be. From a fundamental perspective, that’s baseball’s essence. From a human perspective, Figueroa is also the essence of the sport.

History has given us far more Figueroas in the game than Matt Harveys or Stephen Strasburgs. Harvey and Strasburg have power potential and will always get a shot. Things must break right for Figueroa to get his.

Figueroa has bounced around the globe in search of a job, last pitching in the major leagues with Houston in 2011. He’s been with the Phillies. Toronto and the Yankees released him without his cup of coffee. He has pitched in the winter leagues, for Mexico, for just about anybody who would give him the ball and a few dollars.

Figueroa pitches because that’s what he does. The sport is in his blood, rushing through his veins and consuming his soul. Until he’s physically unable, or run out of teams, Figueroa will pitch. It is players like him, perhaps even more than players like Justin Verlander, as the reason we watch.

Verlander is elite. Figueroa is more like us, who once dreamed of the big leagues. However, unlike us, he persevered through rough times, rejection and defeat to get the taste we will never.

Harvey gave up a three-run homer to Washington’s Bryce Harper in the first inning, but rebounded to throw three scoreless innings and strike out six in an 8-5 loss.

Harvey settled down to retire 11 of the final 12 hitters against him; a very good sign for any pitcher let alone a young one after a rough start.

“I struggled there in the first inning, obviously. I think I came out a little too excited and needed to tone that down a little bit,’’ Harvey told reporters. “I made one bad pitch and it cost me three runs.’’

Harvey said he came out pumped in trying to atone for a three-homer rocking by the Nationals last year in spring training.

Bobby Parnell had a rough outing, giving up four runs in the seventh inning, which included a run-producing error by left fielderLucas Duda and RBI single by Harper.

Bright spots for the Mets included Collin Cowgill’s homer and scoreless relief innings from Robert Carson and LaTroy Hawkins. As of now, Cowgill seems to have the inside track in center field. Hawkins is expected to earn one of the bullpen spots. Carson, who was effective last year out of the pen in spots, could be the second lefty behind Josh Edgin.

METS MUSINGS: The Mets are expected to option catching prospect Travis d’Arnaud and infielder Wilmer Flores to the minor league camp by Friday. If a player on the 40-man roster is injured within 15 days of Opening Day they qualify for major league service time and pay, and must be placed on the disabled list until they are healed. It’s a financial risk the Mets will not take, especially since neither is expected to make the team. … The Mets are expected to name David Wright captain by the start of the season, joining Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter and John Franco. Wright is having a mammoth WBC with ten RBI in four games, including a grand slam. Hope he doesn’t get used to hitting with the bases loaded when he returns. If the USA goes the distance, Wright will be out of camp for another week. …Daniel Murphy is expected to get into a minor league game this weekend. He took live batting practice today. … It his hoped Kirk Nieuwenhuis will begin baseball activities Thursday. He’s been out with a bruised left knee sustained 10 days ago. … Jordany Valdespin, who was hit in the groin by a Justin Verlander pitcher yesterday, now vows to wear a cup. Smart guy.

Jordany Valdespin is not an easy person to like, and especially hard to cheer for, but he’s become a leading candidate. Ask him a question and he’ll often mumble an indifferent and inaudible answer.

He exudes confidence on the field, but crosses the line with a brash attitude, tendency to showboat and not always hustle. Off the field he wears a bright red baseball cap reading “JV 1.’’ He often carries himself  with an “I own the world,” persona that goes beyond confidence, so much that manager Terry Collins has warned him to tone it down a notch.

Last year, Valdespin fell out of favor with the Mets despite hitting five pinch-hit homers. He didn’t help himself in the offseason when he was suspended in winter ball. Even so, with Kirk Nieuwenhuis out with a bruised left knee and Daniel Murphy sidelined with a strained right side, Valdespin is being given every opportunity to make the roster in the outfield or as a second baseman.

Valdespin has produced, but with a caveat: He plays to his own soundtrack.

“He plays with enthusiasm,’’ manager Terry Collins said. “He plays with a flair and, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.’’

It can be a painful thing, as over-the-top behavior, or shall we say, “showmanship,’’ angers the opposition. Collins warned Valdespin teams might retaliate against him. However, that wasn’t the case this afternoon when Justin Verlander plunked him in his following at-bat in which he homered in the 11-0 victory over Detroit.

Valdespin is outplaying both Nieuwenhuis and Mike Baxter, both of whom were the projected starters in center and right, respectively, at the start of spring training. Today he was at second as Murphy continues on the mend from a strained rib cage muscle.

“If they give me a chance to play, I can do the job,’’ Valdespin said. “That’s what I’m waiting for — a chance to play every day and then show everything I can do.’’

With all else being equal, Valdespin’s ability to play second base gives him the edge.

“If you’re going to be an extra player, the fact you can play a lot of positions means a lot,’’ Collins said. “But, we saw last year the fact he can come off the bench and be dangerous also.’’

Regardless of what happened last year, if he continues to produce and play hard – there has been no hustle issues this spring – it is hard to see Valdespin not landing a back-up spot in the outfield, presumably now as the reserve to Collin Cowgill in center if Nieuwenhuis doesn’t make it.

Thoughts from Joe D.

I don’t really care how brash or how cocky a player is as long as he produces on the field. To me, performance always comes first and all the other stuff is just background noise. Heck if we had worried ourselves with stuff like that back in the eighties, I doubt we would have won our last World Series in 1986. Maybe that’s what our problem has been the last ten years, too many choir boys and not enough players with brass balls…

I’ve said this before and I will say it again, there’s a catalyst-type quality about Valdespin that I love. He has a little bit of Jose Reyes in him. He brings a certain kind of electricity to the lineup when he’s in it and I get the feeling something good could happen at any moment when he’s in the game. I don’t get that with Lucas Duda or Mike Baxter or Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

If it’s true, as Adam Rubin reported, that this battle for a spot in the outfield will come down to between Valdespin and Nieuwenhuis, it’s clear to me right now who the winner of that battle is.

I’m not one of those know-it-alls who spout off every March about how spring stats don’t matter. What are they nuts? Of course they mater, and right now Valdespin is earning his place on the Opening Day roster because his performance has been off the charts and that does matter.

However, I don’t want to look at this as just a battle between Spin and Kirk. We have ten outfielders in camp and I just want to be sure that we go up North with the top five producers in camp this Spring – no matter who they are.

Nobody should have a leg up or be considered a lock at this point, especially after that embarrassing production we got from our outfield last season. That was a disgrace…

Like Terry Collins said today, “a lot things are going to happen in the next three weeks.” He’s right. So let’s just see how this plays out, and lets not make the mistake of ignoring a player who batted .375  and showing up on April 1 with a left fielder who batted .220 because he helped a little old lady cross the street this morning.

It’s time to man up, look at the numbers, and go with the hot hand. I’m not looking for five feel-good stories to fill some airtime on SNY in April. I’m looking for some big-time production, lots of attitude and plenty of moxie. If it means Lucas Duda and Kirk Nieuwenhuis end up in Sin City – so be it.

The Mets had an absolute field-day this afternoon with an 11-0 romp over against the Detroit Tigers in Lakeland, Fla.

Jonathon Niese got the start against Detroit and continues to roll, tossing four and two thirds innings of scoreless ball and allowing just one hit while walking four. Niese has yet to allow a run this Spring. It won’t be long until he ‘s officially tapped as the Opening Day starter. I sense a big season in 2013 for the southpaw.

Matt den Dekker played a big part in preventing any damage with yet another spectacular grab in centerfield. His solid effort on that play did not go unnoticed by his teammate Niese. “Oh, it was amazing. He plays a great outfield. It’s great to have that defense behind you.”

If Den Dekker can find a way to show Terry Collins that he could hit better than Mike Baxter, Kirk Nieuwenhuis (still nursing an injury), Marlon Byrd or Collin Cowgill, the lefthanded human highlight reel would stand a good chance to make the team. But after two more strikeouts today, he now has ten in his last 27 at-bats and for a team starving for outfield offense, his chances are slim to none.

SPIN THE THROTTLE: Jordany Valdespin wasted no time making news today after leading off today’s game with home run off Tigers ace Justin Verlander. Later in the game during the fifth inning, Verlander drilled Valdespin with a 95 mph fastball right in the groin (ouch!). But the kid just laughed it off and then created some comic relief on Twitter when Mike Puma of the NY Post asked him where the pitch hit him. “On my d*ck,” replied Valdespin, who could probably star in his own reality show at this point. He leads the team with three homers and is batting .370 this spring.

HEFNER IS THE MAN: If you haven’t figured it out already, Terry Collins made it crystal clear when he said that Jeremy Hefner will be the replacement for Johan Santana if he ends up on the DL to start the season. ”We’re getting Jeremy Hefner ready,” Collins said. The Mets will now focus on stretching Hefner out so that they can get 6-7 innings out of him when he gets the nod. So far, the righty has 2.61 ERA in 10.1 innings pitched and has held opposing batters to a .189 average.

NO NO-HAN: There is nobody in camp that believes Johan Santana will avoid the DL to start the season. Even though there has been no official announcement yet, it looks like Sandy Alderson is the only one holding out any hope, while Collins is planning to start the season without him.

SWELTERING HOT: Ike Davis smacked a two-run single to right in the fifth and is now batting .364 in Grapefruit League play. Catcher John Buck went 2-for-3 and scored twice while notching a pair of doubles. After Valdespin was removed from the game, he was replaced at second base by Brian Bixler who had two hits, two runs scored and two RBIs, including an eighth-inning solo homer. Three deuces beats aces and kings all the time.

THE WRIGHT STUFF: If you’re concerned that David Wright isn’t getting enough work in while competing for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, put your mind at ease. Wright is batting .455 with five RBIs through three games and carried his team through their last two victories. Team USA has advanced to the Semi-Finals and faces the very tough Puerto Rican team on Tuesday at 8:00 PM.

ON DECK: The Mets are off tomorrow, but RHP Matt Harvey looks to continue his hot start against the Washington Nationals squad at 1:05 PM on Wednesday. Harvey is coming off a four and a third hitless innings in his last appearance. Word has it that Harvey won’t ever win a Cy Young Award so temper those expectations.

CONGRATULATIONS: The Mets, SNY and the local papers are stealing all our talent on MMO so far in 2013. Just kidding, I think it’s a credit to all of us at Metsmerized. Our latest congratulations go out to Elliot Chester who recently wrote this post on Collin McHugh last week for MMO. Elliot was chosen to intern for the Mets Media Relations Department this Summer. We wish him all the best and look forward to seeing him at the park this season. Say hello to Jay, Shannon, Danielle and Ethan for us.

It is too soon to say much definitive about Terry Collins’ 2013 Mets other than it has the makings of a long year. Twice yesterday afternoon, the frustrated Mets’ manager answered seemingly innocuous questions about his roster with a curt, “It is March 8.’’

PARNELL CLOSING IN:

One silver thread out of Friday’s 3-2 loss to Detroit was reliever Bobby Parnell, who pitched a 1-2-3 sixth as he’s settling in to the closer job with Frank Francisco destined to open the season on the disabled list with a sore right elbow.

Parnell could always throw hard – sometimes in triple digits – but had trouble with command of his secondary pitches. That wasn’t the case against the Tigers.

“My curveball is working really well,’’ said Parnell. “Last year, I was inconsistent with my curveball. Today I was able to able to throw it for strikes early in the count.’’

Parnell was aggressive and attacked the hitters, and perhaps most importantly threw his curveball in counts where the hitter would normally be expecting a fastball.

“His breaking ball has really improved,’’ Collins said. “I loved his demeanor. He’s going after hitters like he knows he’s going to get them out.’’

Parnell will face another test when he goes back-to-back tomorrow.

“You want to build up your arm strength in spring training,’’ Parnell said. “It is just a mild test to tell you where you are.’’

It isn’t as mild for 40-year-old LaTroy Hawkins, who is trying to hook on in the bullpen. Hawkins said he threw 25 pitches to the five batters he faced. He gave up two hits and struck out one.

Hawkins wouldn’t say he was happy, or even satisfied, for that matter.

“I got a lot of work in today,’’ Hawkins said. “It wasn’t bad.’’

Convincing.

GEE FEELING IT:

Dillon Gee wanted to fine-tune his mechanics and was only partially satisfied with the results, giving up a run on one hit is four innings.

Not to his liking were three walks.

“Other than the walks, I felt better than (my last start, March 3 against Miami at) Jupiter,’’ Gee said. “I feel close to clicking. Maybe it’s a sixth sense, but I feel pretty close.’’

Gee was bailed out by a double play in the second, something Collins liked because he didn’t let the moment get away from him.

“He couldn’t locate all his pitches,’’ Collins said. “But, he kept his composure.’’

VALDESPIN MAKES IMPRESSION:

Jordany Valdespin hurried out of the Mets’ clubhouse with two cheeseburgers on a paper plate. He didn’t stop to talk about his homer that gave the Mets a brief 2-1 lead in the seventh.

Valdespin, who is hitting .333 this spring, started in left and batted second. The previous game he hit leadoff.

Valdespin is nothing if not supremely confident, perhaps overly so. He left the clubhouse wearing a bright red cap backwards with the lettering JV1.

Not hard to figure out what it means.

“He likes to play. He likes to be on the stage,’’ Collins said. “He plays with some flair.’’ Then, after a pause, Collins added: “There’s nothing wrong with that.’’

SIGHTS OF SPRING:

One of my favorite things about spring training is seeing players I enjoyed watching as a kid.

Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling were at Tradition Field Thursday calling the game on television. At lunch Friday was Jim Fregosi – whom Mets remember as the player acquired for Nolan Ryan – and Hall of Famer Al Kaline.

It’s the same in every camp as the alumni visit, many as guest instructors. The Yankees and Dodgers especially like to boast their tradition.

CLASSIC LOOK:

I’ve always thought the Tigers’ home whites are one of the best uniforms in sports. White with dark navy numbering with the old English “D’’ a stunningly simple, but elegant look.

Along with the Tigers there are the home uniforms of the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox. I do like the Mets’ pinstripes with the team name in script.

The simpler the better when it comes to uniforms and caps. That often makes the most powerful statement.

METS NOTEBOOK:

Travis d’Arnaud was one of three Mets hit by Luke Putkonen. He had his right elbow wrapped with an ice back but said he was all right. … The Mets’ offense continued to flounder with five hits. The Mets left 11 and went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. They also struck out 14 times. … Tigers manager Jim Leyland told Detroit reporters he doesn’t intend to retire. … Jeremy Hefner, Brandon Lyon and Parnell are among those scheduled to pitch Saturday against Houston. Shaun Marcum, Hawkins and Pedro Feliciano will work Sunday. The Mets are back in Lakeland Monday with Jonathan Niese starting against Justin Verlander.

COMING SOON:

Me and Joe D. will be combining our efforts beginning Monday as we decide what our Opening Day Mets roster will look like. We don’t agree on many of the decisions, but we spend a great deal of time arguing our points everyday and think it would be a great dynamic for the site. He’s talked me into doing a week by week retelling of the 1973 Mets season which we both feel gets very little playtime considering it went all the way down to Game 7 of the World Series. For those of you who weren’t around back then, get ready to relive the all the excitement of one of the most underrated great Mets seasons of all time. Joe will chime in as well as he calls that season his Mets baptism and the start of his Agony and Ecstasy. It should be fun.

For the most part, Mets fans were pleasantly surprised with the production of the Mets pitching staff in 2012. The bullpen kept us on the edge of  our seats the majority of the season, but the starters were one of the bright spots for the Mets. None shone brighter than the ace of the staff, RA Dickey. Some injuries prevented the Mets starting rotation from reaching its full potential, but when all the starters are healthy, it is easily the strongest aspect of the New York Mets. But what will we find out about the Mets Pitchers if we break them down statistically? Statistically speaking, the Mets pitchers may not be as strong as we thought.

The best statistical measure I have come across when evaluating pitchers is the Factor12 (F12) rating. The majority of readers out there are asking, what’s the Factor12 rating? Well, it’s probably best if I let one of the co-creators of the F12 rating explain it to you in his own words:

The Factor12 Rating uses the league average performance to calculate the value of MLB pitchers in a given season. The theoretical average pitcher will have a F12 Rating of 24.000. Elite pitchers will post a 30.000+ seasonal rating. F12 is calculated by comparing each pitcher to the league average in ten ratio statistics, and two counting statistics. – Sven Jenkins

I know. Some of the readers are still scratching their heads. Many are still questioning why this rating is so great. Still not convinced? I will include the entire description of the F12 rating below, so you can get a better feel for why this rating is the best way to analyze a pitcher’s success. You can also find this information on their website:

The Factor12 Rating (F12) is an analytic measurement utilizing league average performance to compare the value of all MLB pitchers.

F12 consists of the following twelve statistics incorporating every aspect of pitching.

Innings Pitched (IP); Strikeouts Minus Walks (SO-BB); Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP); Earned Run Average (ERA); Walks plus Hits per Innings Pitched (WHIP); Home Runs per 9 innings (HR/9); Walks per 9 innings (BB/9); Strikeouts per 9 innings (SO/9); Opponents Batting Average (OBA); Opponents On-Base Average (OOBA); Opponents Slugging Average (OSLG); Modified Base-Out Percentage (MBOP) has been adjusted to include wild pitches and balks.

F12 produces a numeric total value using the percentage difference equation for the ten pre-defined ratio categories. Each pitcher is ranked according to league average performance using 2.000 as the baseline. Categories have a maximum value of 4.000 and a minimum of 0.001.

Percentage difference equals the absolute value of the change in value, divided by the average of the 2 numbers, all multiplied by 100. To illustrate, the average MLB pitcher compiled a 3.94 ERA in 2011. Clayton Kershaw finished his Cy Young campaign with a 2.28 ERA: =((3.94-2.28)/((2.28+3.94)/2))*100. The Factor12 Method adds: /100+2 to utilize an easy number less than, greater than, or equal to 2.000. As a result, Kershaw received a 2.536 F12 value for ERA last season.

The Innings Pitched (IP) and Strikeout Minus Walks (SO-BB) categories utilize a percentage change formula, which does not contain a fixed range. Percentage change represents the relative change between the old value and the new one. For example, the average MLB pitcher totaled 65.75 innings pitched in 2011. Clayton Kershaw compiled 233.33 innings pitched: =((233.33-65.75)/65.75)*100. The Factor12 Method adds: /100+2 and Kershaw earned a 4.549 value for IP last season.

A pitcher’s F12 is the sum of the percentage difference/change value of the twelve statistical categories. The league average performance is 24.000 and the  minimum is 0.001. Pitchers recording zero innings pitched will receive a 0.000 F12 Rating. Elite pitchers will accumulate a 30.000+ seasonal rating.

Pitchers completing less than the average yearly innings (i.e. 65.75 in 2011) will have their F12 Rating weighed by the percentage of innings completed in relation to the league average (i.e. Sergio Romo 48 IP/65.75). This adjustment enables starting pitchers and relievers to be compared together based on different workloads for the season.

Factor12 rates yearly performance, with the potential for future projections. Weekly updates were available during the 2012 season to quantify every pitcher in Major League Baseball using F12.

Sounds simple enough right? I think a good way of explaining the F12 rating is by saying that it gives us a better idea of which pitchers actually control the strike zone the best. That’s why I prefer to use the F12 when analyzing pitchers statistically. We can sometimes get caught up in strikeouts, and ERA, but those aren’t always the best ways to analyze how well a pitcher is actually picthing. The F12 rating gives a better overall picture of how a pitcher is performing.

Now that you understand a little more about the rating, and how it works, we can look at how some of the Mets pitchers performed in 2012 by using this rating system. I asked the guys at 60ft6in.com if they could create a spreadsheet of all the pitchers that pitched in a game for the Mets this year. I asked them to provide us with their F12 rating, as well as how it ranked up against every other pitcher in the MLB. Aside from Dickey, you may be surprised about how the other Mets pitchers stacked up against the rest of the league.

I don’t think anyone is surprised that Dickey is at the top of the list for the Mets. Dickey is ranked fourth in the MLB using the F12 rating – only Justin Verlander (31.422), Clayton Kershaw (31.219), and Felix Hernandez (30.914) were ranked higher. Even F12 agrees that Dickey has a great chance at being the 2012 National League Cy Young winner. Something that was surprising to me when looking at the spreadsheet, was that only two Mets pitchers ranked in the top 100. I figured to see more than two pitchers in the top 100. I was also surprised to see that Bobby Parnell, every Met fan’s nightmare, was actually the third best Mets pitcher according to the F12. That kind of leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but I will let it slide.

I can’t be the only person who thought the Mets pitching was pretty good this year (not taking the bullpen into consideration). But according to the F12 rating, they actually weren’t too good at all. The theoretical average F12 rating for pitchers in 24. That being said, the Mets had three average pitchers in 2012 (Parnell, Gee, Santana), one slightly better than average pitcher (Niese), and one elite pitcher (Dickey). The rest of the pitchers were considered below average. It makes you realize how bad the rest of the team must have been in 2012 to make the pitching staff look so good to the fans. However, after a little elbow grease by the guys at 60ft6in.com, and some analysis, we see that the Mets pitching staff is not as strong as it seems.

Regardless of F12, we had some memorable moments from the pitching staff in 2012. Dickey became the first twenty game winner in a Mets uniform since 1990, and is up for the Cy Young award (hopefully some voters check out his F12 rating). Johan Santana maybe injury prone, and average according to his F12 rating, but he pitched the first no-hitter in New York Mets history. When it’s all said and done, the Factor12 can’t measure those things…and those are the things the Mets fans will remember about the 2012 baseball season.

I would like to give a special thanks to Sven Jenkins for taking the time to help out with this article. If any readers want to learn more about the Factor12 rating, or get pitching scouting reports, check out 60ft6in.com. As always, please share any thoughts in the comment section below – was anything surprising to you when looking at the F12 ratings? Do you buy into the F12 rating? Let’s hear it…