Pitchers

John Lackey – A very rough start to the season, but Lackey has rebounded somewhat. Lackey is 7-3 but has allowed 93 hits in 81 innings, walking 35 and striking out 44 putting up a 4.54 ERA. Lackey has only has one walk-free outing, and that was on June 11th. He has only K’d more then 3 in a game 5 times, with 6 being his season high. If Lackey would’ve been signed, then LF would’ve been filled from within or with a much cheaper player then Jason Bay.

Randy Wolf – Although Wolf has had some tough luck, he is 4-6 with a 5.31 ERA. He has struck out 49, but walked 39 and  allowed 88 hits. Essentially, he’s a bend-not-break pitcher, and he’s spent most of his season bending, with only 4 QS in his 13 outings.

Joel Pineiro – After walking 27 all of last year in 214 innings, Pineiro already has 21 walks in 84 innings. He’s been striking out more batters, but his 4.56 ERA says that when contact is being made, its being sent far. 11 HR allowed all last year, 9 up to this point. Also has given up 9 runs in 2 starts this year.

Jason Marquis – Currently on the DL, but that is probably a good thing. Jason went 8.1 innings, giving up 20 runs and allowing him to hold his 0-3 record and his 20.52 ERA closely. Signing him would’ve just been more money the Mets couldn’t have spent to replace him.

Hitters

Bengie Molina – After a torrid start where he was hitting well over .400, Molina has calmed down, hitting .261 with 3 home runs and 16 RBI. Uncharacteristically, however Bengie has walked 12 times to his 16 strikeouts. He also had a DL stint so far, and has only thrown out 19% of runners. Looking like a good idea to not sign him in retrospect.

Matt Holliday – The 120 Million Dollar Man is putting up decent numbers, but nothing near his worth hitting .295 with 6 HR and 25 RBI with 6 steals. With Albert Pujols hitting in front of Holliday, one would expect those numbers to be much higher but Holliday isn’t putting up the numbers

Garrett Atkins – .216/1/9 is his BA/HR/RBI slash line. He has since lost his starting position as the Orioles 1B to a combination of Rhyne Hughes/Ty Wigginton.

Johnny Damon – .280/3/18/4 is his BA/HR/RBI/SB slash, and nothing here says he is worth more then his 1 yr/8 million dollar deal, but it was to be expected once he was moved out of Yankee Stadium and that short RF porch his home run production would plummet.

Adam LaRoche – .250/7/36 is his BA/HR/RBI slash line. A notoriously slow starter, his average to above-average defense makes these stats tolerable until he decides its the 2nd half of the year and goes bonkers.

Chone Figgins – .228/0/16/13 is his BA/HR/RBI/SB line. Chone is a usually strong BA producer, but has been used at 2B and has not been able to consistently hit. He is still walking at a healthy pace, but it can’t offset the fact that he isn’t hitting the ball well.

It is always easier to look back on a situation and say the best decisions were made as an organization, but the Mets did not bite on any of these players who were grossly overpaid and have reaped the benefits of having some financial freedom going into next year to fill key positions that may be opening, or to cut ties with other positions that may be financially prudent (Castillo-release, anyone?). By not making snap-decisions, the Mets have produced an over .500 team without adding a plethora of marquee-type free agents.

In related news, the Mets have announced the signing of Jack Squat.  Squat hasn’t done much in the past and might go unnoticed in the Mets clubhouse, but that is due to the fact that no one ever knows he’s there.  Since he wasn’t a Type A or Type B free agent, the Mets pounced on Squat since they knew he would sign for next to nothing.

I have to joke about this because if I didn’t, I’d be crying.  The Mets are just twiddling their thumbs watching players they should have acquired not only sign with other teams, but get traded to teams that will have a great impact on where the Mets will finish in 2010 and beyond.

Not only are the top pitchers being signed and/or traded to other teams, but now the Mets might have to overpay for pitchers such as Jason Marquis and Joel Piñeiro so that they don’t sign with other teams.  I have nothing against either pitcher, but what if Santana gets hurt again like he did at the end of the 2009 season?  Neither Marquis nor Piñeiro is good enough to be the ace of a staff the way Halladay and Lackey were with the Blue Jays and Angels, respectively.

The 2010 Mets with a staff of Santana, Marquis/Piñeiro, Pelfrey, Maine and some $36 million pitcher looks a lot like the 2009 staff, meaning mediocre at best.  Of course, on the bright side, the Red Sox might not be able to afford Jason Bay now that Lackey will be getting a couple of bucks from them.  Unfortunately, Jason Bay can’t pitch and now that Halladay and Lackey appear to be off the radar, there is a dearth of ace-type starters for the Mets to consider.

The Citi Field press conference room is resembling a ghost town.

Let’s just put it this way.  The way the Mets have gone about this offseason, it looks like they’re taking the “let’s take our time and see how this all plays out” approach.  What might have worked in the past is not working this time around.  Omar Minaya can’t let other teams, especially his main rivals, scoop up player after player while he waits intently in the Citi Field press conference room for the player introduction that’s not going to happen.

While teams like the Phillies and Red Sox are giving their fans awesome stocking stuffers, Mets fans are just getting lumps of coal in their stockings.  At least we’ll be able to use that coal to heat up our stoves because it sure looks like the Mets’ hot stove isn’t using it.

Free-agent right-hander John Lackey underwent a physical Monday with the Red Sox, an indication that he is close to an agreement with the team, according to a major-league source.

Rosenthal also speculates that the deal is expected to be similar to the five-year, $82.5 million contract that the Yankees awarded free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett last winter.

Obviously this is a big blow to any chance that Lackey would end up signing with the Mets, who failed to even make an offer because as a team source said, “we are focused on Jason Bay right now.”

In my opinion if the Red Sox do indeed sign Lackey, and it sure looks that way, it makes signing Jason Bay all the more important. It also now puts Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro squarely in the Mets’ sights, like it or not.

That said, it pisses me off that no offer was tendered to Lackey who would have been a more valuable acquisition for a team that desperately needs a compliment to Johan Santana.

I didn’t realize that the Mets front office has become so inept that it is only capable of focusing on one free agent player at a time.

Based on additional reporting from Adam Rubin of the Daily News, one of those offers will most likely be to free-agent catcher Bengie Molina. Earlier reports yesterday that the Mets had already made an offer turned out to be inaccurate.

Also, there is some buzz around Twitter that the second offer could be for starting pitcher John Lackey. However, this has not been confirmed by any reliable source so please take it with a grain of salt.

The Mets did meet with the agents for John Lackey last night, so it wouldn’t be far fetched to think that an offer could be forthcoming.

Of course it’s a 2-way street as well. Making an offer is only half the battle and the easy part. It’s accepting the offer that usually proves to be more elusive.

Stay tuned for more updates on this…

Mets taking a little closer look at Lackey after getting sticker shock on middle-rung starters. Might rather pay for ace.

I guess when the Mets learned that the Milwaukee  Brewers’ offer to starting pitcher Randy Wolf was around three years for $30 million, they freaked.

I surmise that when the agent for Joel Pineiro mentioned the words “four-year deal” the Mets went absolutely cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs.

Hey, whatever it takes right?

If sticker shock was all it was gonna take to stir the Mets into action, all that matters in the end is that they sign the best players and John Lackey is clearly at the head of the class.

There hasn’t been much to rave about for us Mets fans so far this off season, but I think it’s a good sign that the Mets are now shopping at Best Buy instead of Family Dollar.

Edwin Jackson yesterday was also rumored to be joining the Mets, but that rumor was also shot down less than 20 minutes later.  Unfortunately, we live in an age where the quest to break the news, outweighs the responsibility to accurately report the news, and it frequently leads to the kind of inaccurate reporting we saw on Day 1 of the 2009 Baseball Winter Meetings.

Regardless, those rumors did get me to think about what I would like to see happen at the winter meetings for the Mets this year. 

My wish list for the winter meetings begins with a starting catcher. I’m hoping that the Mets are done signing every backup catcher on the market, and will now focus on acquiring a starting catcher for the 2010 season.  As we all know, the team is very high on Bengie Molina and would prefer to sign him, but the problem is that Molina is said to be wanting a 3 year deal.  There’s no way that the Mets can give into him.  Omar cannot cave into any of the pressure that Molina and his agent are putting on him regardless of how much he wants him.  It’s very unlikely that any other team would give Molina a 3 year deal, and Omar cannot give in to the players demands as he did last year when he agreed to give Oliver Perez a 3 year deal.

It’s important to remember that the 2010 starting catcher would be a one year stop gap, and that Josh Thole, barring a major setback, will be the everyday catcher for the Mets in 2011.  The Mets did sign a very good defensive catcher last week in Henry Blanco, and they also have Omir Santos and Chris Coste. Rod Barajas is still available and would be a good alternative to Molina, and Dioner Navarro could possibly be non-tendered and become available as well. The bottom line is that the Mets have options and are the ones sitting in the driver’s seat, not Molina.

The second item on my wish list is to get a starting pitcher.  The Blue Jays are reportedly taking offers for their ace Roy Halladay, and besides the huge cash outlay that Halladay would require in an extension. it’s going to require a bunch of top prospects be sent to Toronto in exchange for Halladay’s arm.  The Mets farm system is not very deep at all, and trading away our best prospects will set this organization back so far it could take years to recover.

It’s imperative that the Mets focus all of their attention toward signing free agent John Lackey.  He will not cost as much per year as Halladay, and of course he won’t cost the Mets any of the prospects that Halladay will.  The  Mets need to sign Lackey and then go after a second tier pitcher like Joel Pineiro, Randy Wolf, and Staten Island’s own Jason Marquis, who wants desperately to be a Met.

Finally I want Matt Holliday.  He will cost a ton of money, but his bat and power is much needed for this team next season and beyond.  He is not exactly the best defensive player, but he is still an upgrade over what we had last season. Holliday would be a force in the lineup and provide much needed protection for David Wright.

I know my list is long and costly, but this is what I believe the Mets need to do for them to be competitive next season.

We hope you brought your checkbooks.  We will have many registers open to help speed up your free agent shopping and numerous player agents will be on hand to assist you.  If you have any questions, please direct them to our manager, Mr. Boras.  Now let’s take you on a tour of our store.

First, we have our electronics department.  Here is where you will find all the gamers, such as John Lackey.  His tenacity, determination and consistency will help your team fill a very important spot in the starting rotation.  If you do not find John Lackey on the shelves, perhaps we can interest you in a different pitcher.  We always have Joel Piñeiro and Jason Marquis in stock.  They’re not the hot item of the week, but they can provide a cheaper alternative to John Lackey.  For those inquiring about when Roy Halladay will be in stock, we were told that he will not be available at the Free Agent Warehouse for another year.  If you are here for Halladay and only Halladay, please report to the corner pawn shop, where trading is encouraged.

You will also find batteries in our electronics department.  A good battery consists of a pitcher who can throw any pitch and spot it exactly where his catcher wants.   We just received a new shipment of Bengie Molina for any team who needs a replacement battery.  Brian Schneider is somewhere on the battery wall, but he’s in need of some recharging.

From here, we take you to our lighting department.  Without proper lighting, your home stadium will suffer from a lack of power.  We have multiple items that may be to your liking.  We have received many requests for Matt Holliday and Jason Bay.  As you all know, without our customers we have nothing.  Therefore, we are proud to announce that both Holliday and Bay are available.  Power is not cheap, so we hope you came prepared to spend if you choose to brighten your stadium with those bulbs.  If you have dark corners in your home stadium, we have Adam LaRoche, Russell Branyan and Hank Blalock, all of which can provide temporary power help.  Of course, we still have our older models like Carlos Delgado, but we cannot guarantee that he will be bright for an entire season.

Over here, we have our hardware section.  These players have the tools to bring a team together.  They might not light up the scoreboard, but they provide the glue that solidifies the team.  Orlando Hudson and Chone Figgins are our most requested items.  Another item that may intrigue you is Mark DeRosa.  He is one of our most versatile tools, providing assistance in your infield and outfield.

Our toddler section is under renovation, so you will not find any players there at the moment.  We hope to reopen it by next year at the earliest, or perhaps in two seasons.  By then, we’ll have Manny Ramirez and Milton Bradley as the toddler section’s main attractions.

Although you have all winter to buy the free agents we have in stock, please remember that all purchases are final.  Also, we are not responsible for damaged goods.  We are not forcing you to buy anything in our store.  You’re making that decision on your own.  If you make a poor purchase, it’s on your hands.  However, if you find free agent gold, your fans will be dancing in the streets.

That’ll end the tour of the Free Agent Warehouse.  We hope you found something of interest for your team.  For those of you who need to use the rest room before leaving, please be careful when you flush so that your wallets don’t accidentally fall in.  Yes, Mr. Minaya.  I’m talking to you.  We don’t want you to come up with a convenient excuse if someone else comes in and scoops up one of the players on your shopping list.

Don’t forget to come again soon.  We’ll be open 24 hours a day, 7 days a week throughout the winter to serve all of your shopping needs.  We’re the Free Agent Warehouse, where no one has to go home empty-handed.

Toronto’s newest GM made it very clear that Halladay could be traded if he is blown away by an offer. Ahh, interesting choice of words. Exactly what does “blown away” mean?

Did the Mets blow the Twins away when they sent Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey for Johan Santana? By the looks of those names, certainly not, but the Mets did make the best offer and that was good enough for the Twins, the Mets, and me.

Readers of this blog know it’s no secret how much I cover Halladay. I wanted the Mets to get him when they were just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot and it was no secret he was available before the trade deadline.

Halladay has already stated that he has no problem waiving his no-trade clause in exchange for a fat extension. So in that regard, he’s not a rental. If you make the trade, you get the negotiating window and Halladay is yours for at least five years and most likely six.

Based on recent contracts for pitchers of his caliber, a 6-year deal could easily average $23 million dollars per season or more. Damn, that’s a lot of cash…

Are you willing to blow the Blue Jays away with a package of major leaguers and your best prospects just for the privilege of dishing out $140 million dollars to a bona-fide ace who will turn 32 next May?

There’s an old saying that comes to mind, and it seems somewhat appropriate right now; Don’t Keep All You Eggs In One Basket.

Imagine the Mets having to pay two of their starting pitchers nearly $50 million dollars a season. Great starting pitchers? No doubt, but what a stranglehold on the rest of the teams payroll, especially with Reyes and Beltran soon to become free agents barring an extension. I haven’t even raised the specter of God forbid one of them suffers an arm injury and requires surgery. How do you manipulate a payroll when almost one third of it is tied up in two players?

The more I ponder the situation, the more I look at John Lackey.

To begin, he would cost the Mets nothing in terms of players. Heck the Mets don’t even have to give up a first round pick to sign him. Plus, from a contractual standpoint, most are speculating a deal that could top what A.J. Burnett got last season, but not by much. We’re talking 5 years at $18 million per, tops.

I didn’t even get into who the Mets would have to give up to get Halladay, but you could expect Mike Pelfrey, Ike Davis, Josh Thole and Jenrry Mejia to all be bandied about and ultimately packaged. That caviar sounds a little bit too rich for my taste.

After careful consideration, it’s now my belief that signing John Lackey (and making sure that the Mets win any bidding war) would be the best way for the Mets to go.

As Joe D stated in a blog earlier today, John Lackey might be the wiser choice because he would be a less expensive option than Halladay, is 1½ years younger and wouldn’t cost the Mets all the players they’d have to give up in exchange for Halladay.  I agree with all of Joe D’s points but I’ve looked into it a little deeper and found another reason why the Mets would be better off with Lackey instead of Halladay.   It’s something that has been overlooked by many but is quite relevant considering that whoever they acquire would be switching leagues.

Roy Halladay has a phenomenal career record.  Since making his debut for the Blue Jays in 1998, his career record is 148-76 (.661 winning percentage), with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP.  If Halladay was traded to the Mets, he’s be facing primarily National League teams.  His career numbers against NL teams are fairly similar to his overall career numbers.  Against the senior circuit, Halladay owns a .680 winning percentage (17-8) with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

If the Mets were to trade for Halladay instead of signing Lackey, it would make sense that Halladay should be far better than Lackey against National League teams.  After all, how would Halladay’s 20-4 career record against the Baltimore Orioles be relevant as a member of the New York Mets?  When looking at Lackey’s career numbers against National League teams, it might come as a surprise that not only is Lackey on par with Halladay, he’s actually better than him.

Lackey has been in the majors for less time than Halladay, as his major league debut didn’t come until 2002.  However, against the teams that the Mets would facing in the National League, Lackey is 12-4 (.750 winning perecentage) with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.  By comparison, Johan Santana was 16-4 with a 2.26 ERA against National League teams while he was a member of the Minnesota Twins.  In his first year in the National League with the Mets, he led the league in ERA with his 2.53 mark.

Roy Halladay’s career numbers make him seem like a better pick over John Lackey.  But when looking at career records, the only relevant numbers to consider are the ones against foes the Mets would be facing.  If Lackey has been more effective against National League teams than Halladay has, when you combine that with his age, the less expensive price tag, the lack of players given up to acquire him and (lest we forget) the postseason experience he has that Halladay doesn’t have, it should be clear that Lackey’s the man.

They also made it clear that money was not an object and that Omar Minaya was free to pursue any of the top free agents without fear of a cut in payroll. In fact, Wilpon himself said that payroll may very well increase. That was then, and this is now…

Jon Heyman of SI.com, reported on Monday that the Mets are very leery of committing to starting pitcher John Lackey because of concerns about a potential arm injury. Really?

This is the first time that anything regarding Lackey and his potential for injury has been reported.

Apparently, the Mets’ crack medical staff, who were the absolute worst in diagnosing the myriad of their own injuries, have raised the alert in the Mets front office regarding Lackey. Or is this more of the same old Wilpon shenanigans?  I smell a rat…

The Mets have played this card before.

Remember back when Vladimir Guerrero first became a free agent?

At the time, the Mets were worried about a potential back injury. Of course Vlad went on to win the MVP that season and compile a Hall of Fame caliber resume since that infamous Mets prognosis. During the span of the six year deal he signed with the Angels, Guerrero averaged 604 at-bats, 30 homeruns, and 103 RBI’s per season. Oh and one more important thing to note…

The Angels went to the post season five times during Guerrero’s six year deal.

If the Mets don’t have the stomach for a bidding war on John Lackey, why don’t they just admit it?

Do they really think that their fan base is so ignorant that they can con us the way Madoff conned them?

How do you think John Lackey and his agent feel today after learning that the Mets made their fears of a Lackey injury public?

I would have loved to be a fly on the wall when that dung hit the fan.

What the Mets did was ensure that John Lackey will never wear the Mets uniform.

They did it in a way that would soften the blow for Mets fans by raising the fear level and sounding the alert at a time when the word ”injury” would make most Mets fans shudder.

From a devious point of view, their plan is brilliant.

Unfortunately, that farce may actually work on many Mets fans, and that’s what Minaya and Wilpon are banking on.

If enough Mets fans fall for it, then they can go ahead and bank the $90 million dollars that they would have had to pay John Lackey.

Instead, Lackey will most likely join Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte in the Bronx next season.

Of the 20 executives who were polled, the majority believe his new area code will be 718.  However, will that be in the Bronx or in Queens?

Only three executives believe he will return to the Angels, while four think the Mets will sign him and eight believe the Yankees will buy him at wholesale price.

Lackey is originally from Abilene, TX.  That makes it quite surprising that the Rangers and Astros weren’t seen as potential suitors for his services.

As for the years and dollars being bandied about, the executives believe that it could take as little as three years and $36 million (although this was an anonymous poll, I’ll bet you Oliver Perez’s sombrero that I know which GM thought Lackey would find that deal to be reasonable.  Ollie’s Money Ain’t Reasonable!)

Other GMs thought it would take as much as six years and $100 million to sign Lackey.  I don’t think the Mets would go that high for Lackey as far as years go.  I do believe they would sign him for that average annual value. They’d probably have to offer a minimum of four years and quite possibly five to get Lackey to come to Flushing.

It may take an A.J. Burnett-type deal (five years, $82 million), but Lackey is worth it.  He is as consistent as they come and he will be coming to the National League, where he will not have to face a DH.  Although he has begun each of the past two seasons on the DL, he has recovered well from each injury.

Of course, his intangibles also make him an attractive commodity.  He is a fierce competitor and his tenacity on the mound is matched by few.  One pitcher who could match his grit and determination is Johan Santana.  Imagine if Santana and Lackey were able to start 40% of the games in 2010.  The Phillies would have to pray for more three-run homers because they surely wouldn’t be able to match that one-two punch on the mound.

If executives think John Lackey will be a New Yorker next year, Omar has to go all out for him the way he went all out for Johan Santana.  He can’t let the Yankees scoop him up.  They added an ace and a solid #2 pitcher last year in CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and they helped lead the team to a World Championship.

If Sabathia could be swayed to sign with the Yankees instead of with a team in his home state of California, then why can’t the Mets do the same with Lackey?  He is a native Texan, but if Omar can pony up the cash for this stud, he must rope him in.

Lackey would have to change his uniform number (his #41 is kind of reserved for a wine connoisseur.  I think his initials are GTS.), but perhaps with a few extra numbers on his contract, he can put a new one on his back.

Now pitching for the New York Mets, John Lackey!  I expect to hear that at Citi Field in 2010 and in the years following next season.  Are you listening, Omar?  You better be if you want to be at Citi Field in the years following 2010 as well.

The Yankees just won the World Series after they went hard after free agents CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Mark Teixeira.  They filled two voids by signing those three players.  By adding Sabathia and Burnett, they replaced the retired Mike Mussina and did not have to depend on the likes of Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner anymore.  Teixeira replaced Jason Giambi at first base and instantly brought a fearsome bat to the hot corner that Giambi stopped being a few years ago.

Coincidentally, the Mets are now looking for a few starting pitchers and a first baseman.  Of course, they might also be shopping for a left fielder as well.  Unfortunately, this year the free agent class isn’t as deep in the starting pitching and first base department as it was last year when the Steinbrenners maxed out their credit cards in order to buy their championship.

There is no under-30 superstar first baseman to be had, a la Mark Teixeira.  The best available players at the position include Adam LaRoche and Hank Blalock, neither of which can produce the across the board numbers Teixeira did even if they played half of their games in a Little League field as opposed to Citi Field.

Recently, I suggested that the Mets should go hard after Adrian Gonzalez if the Padres decide to trade him.  However, with the emergence of Ike Davis, I’m not so sure about Gonzalez anymore.  Sure, Gonzalez would give the Mets the power they got when they traded for Carlos Delgado in 2006 at a much younger age than Delgado was, but Davis would keep the payroll lower for a longer period of time, enabling the Mets to go after pricier free agents in the future, especially starting pitchers.  If the Mets don’t feel that Davis will be ready for the majors until 2011, then they’d be better off signing a stopgap first baseman to a one-year deal, like a Russell Branyan.  LaRoche and Blalock would be good one-year signings, but it is unlikely either player would accept a one-year deal at this stage of their careers, as they’re both younger than Branyan.

As far as starting pitchers go, I think I’ve made it clear in past blogs that I want John Lackey on the Mets.  He is a fierce competitor who would complement Johan Santana perfectly.  Imagine a lefty-righty combo of Santana and Lackey.  They would be firing up the team on and off the field with their win-at-all-costs attitude and determination.  Obviously, the 2009 Mets lacked good health.  But one other thing they lacked was the fire good teams need to succeed.  Lackey would add a few logs to that fire.

There has been talk around the hot stove that Lackey would prefer pitching in his home state of Texas.  Isn’t that the same talk that was revolving around CC Sabathia last year?  Wasn’t he supposed to go to a California team so he could be back home?  Instead, he left Milwaukee and went in the opposite direction and found himself a World Series ring under his pillow.  Why can’t the Mets do the same for Lackey?

Having Santana and Lackey ahead of John Maine and Mike Pelfrey (I’m intentionally leaving Oliver Perez out of the mix) would allay fears of who the Mets can count on after every fifth day that Santana trots out to the mound.  With only Santana, the Mets would have to rely on Oliver Perez too much.  Even Maine and Pelfrey are question marks for the 2010 season, with Maine’s injury concerns and Pelfrey’s regression to his pre-2008 form.  These question marks might require the Mets to look for another starting pitcher even if they do sign Lackey.

What about left field?  I personally love Angel Pagan, but I know he might be best suited as a fourth outfielder.  His bat is without question his strength, but his fundamentals still need a little work.  If he hadn’t confused aggressive baserunning with reckless baserunning so much in 2009, perhaps a Pagan/Beltran/Francoeur outfield would have been the ideal situation for the Mets.  However, because he did not prove that he can be a heady ballpayer just yet, the Mets might need a different player to patrol left field.

Ideally, the Mets would need to have a power hitter at first base so that the need for power in left field would not be as great.  Outfielders, especially in spacious Citi Field, need more speed than a first baseman requires.  Therefore, if the power at first is addressed quickly, then the Mets can turn their attention to someone like Carl Crawford.  There’s no question he has the speed, as he’s an annual threat to win the stolen base title.  His defense is another facet of his game that is above average.  I would trust him chasing after fly balls more than I would trust Angel Pagan.  If the Rays feel that they cannot afford to keep Crawford, then the Mets should do what it takes to bring him to Citi Field.

Some of the moves I have suggested are free agent acquisitions while some would involve trades.  It’s much easier for me to write about these moves than it is to actually make them.  That’s where Omar Minaya has to come in.  He is very much in danger of losing his job if the Mets can’t compete in 2010.  He has to make this hot stove season burn brightly.  I’m sure he noticed what the Yankees did last year during the winter and look what it did for them this season.  If the Wilpons want to make sure there aren’t as many empty seats at Citi Field as there were during the last month of 2009, they have to supply Omar with the funds to put together the best possible team he can.  Otherwise, the hot stove will only serve to burn the fans instead of lighting the way to the promised land.

Rewind back to the off season and the quality of pitchers that were available on the free agent market.  Sure there was C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett but I was realistic enough to know that the Mets wouldn’t sign either of those guys, just think what the payroll would be with Sabathia and Santana alone.  The Yankees I still believed overpaid for both Sabathia and Burnett, however there were other free agent pitchers that were available and were settling for less than C.C. and Burnett.  The Mets passed on free agent pitchers Randy Wolf, Derek Lowe, Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez and they turned down a trade for Jason Marquis to sign Oliver Perez.

This year the free agent market is a lot smaller than last year.  The best free agent pitcher on the market this year will be John Lackey.  He showed this post season that he is a big game pitcher, he will work his butt off for his team and he’s got the stuff to back his warrior mentality up.  Now he is not going to come cheap.  He will get more than A.J. Burnett, rightly so in my opinion as he is a better pitcher.  The estimates are that he will get a 5 year, 100 mill contract.  I think Lackey is perfect for Citi Field and more importantly he is perfect for the Mets.  He could be a great number 2 guy in the rotation.  Johan Santana followed by Lackey would be a very hard 1-2 punch for any team’s lineup.

The Mets have a pitchers ballpark but you need good pitchers to utilize it properly.  We saw that after Johan in 2009 the Mets don’t have a number 2 pitcher as Pelfrey took a giant step backwards.  There was not one pitcher in the rotation for 2009 behind Santana that is anything more than a number 3 guy in the rotation.  A pitchers ballpark doesn’t make mediocre pitchers better, just protects them a little more.  If the Mets aren’t going to utilize the ballpark what was the point of building it that way?

The Mets need a proven #2 starter to follow Johan Santana in the rotation. Mike Pelfrey and his 5.00-plus ERA just isn’t cutting it. Lackey’s consistency and bulldog mentality would form a great lefty-righty tandem with Santana.

Let’s see just how consistent Lackey has been over his career. He started out slowly for the Angels from 2002-2004. Over his first three seasons, Lackey was just a .500 pitcher, going 33-33 with a 4.44 ERA. However, as he gained experience, he also became one of the best pitchers in baseball. Witness his 2005-2009 seasons:

• 2005: 14-5, 3.44 ERA
• 2006: 13-11, 3.56 ERA
• 2007: 19-9, 3.01 ERA
• 2008: 12-5, 3.75 ERA
• 2009: 11-8, 3.83 ERA

That’s five consecutive seasons facing a DH in every game (other than interleague games in National League parks) with ERAs under 4.00. His 3.01 ERA in 2007 led the American League. He is also one of only six pitchers in baseball to win at least 11 games in each of the last six seasons, with the other five being potential teammate Johan Santana, CC Sabathia, Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez and Jason Marquis.

For the five-year stretch mentioned above, Lackey is a combined 69-38 with a 3.49 ERA. He has also walked only 282 batters in 150 starts made over those five years, an average of less than two walks per start.

The Mets struggled with their control all year in 2009. Lackey’s impeccable control would surely help the pitching staff. He walked 52 batters or less in each of the past three seasons. Compare that to the 58 walks surrendered by Oliver Perez in only 14 starts this season.

In addition to his excellent work in the regular season, Lackey has plenty of playoff experience, making 12 starts over five different postseasons. His ERA in those 12 starts is 3.12, which is even better than his regular season ERA. Also, opposing hitters have only hit 4 HR off Lackey in 78 career postseason innings.

Lackey has proven that he can step up his game when his team needs it the most, unlike certain members of the current Mets staff. When the Angels needed him in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series, he was the winning pitcher as a rookie. With their backs against the wall in Game 5 of this year’s ALCS, Lackey pitched beautifully, giving up three runs in 6.2 innings, although those runs did not score while he was in the game (no thanks to former Met Darren Oliver). He wants the ball at all times and is not afraid to speak his mind when he feels that he’s still the best option to get a hitter out (as seen by his “this game is mine” comment that lip readers could recognize when Mike Scioscia removed him from Game 5 against the Yankees).

Who wouldn’t want him on the Mets? Probably the people whose names would appear on the bottom of his paycheck. Lackey will not come cheap. More than likely, it will take at least five years and an average annual value of $16-$18 million to sign him. He has definitely earned those dollars with his consistency over the past five years. However, if Lackey agrees to a five-year deal, he would be almost 36 when the contract expires in 2014. $18 million might be a lot to give to a pitcher on the statistical downside of his career.

As with all pitchers, the Mets must be careful not to overpay for a pitcher who might give them great performances over the first part of the contract, followed by a dropoff afterwards (see Pedro Martinez). However, Lackey might give them a good reason to make an exception. After all, he began both the 2008 and 2009 seasons on the disabled list but came back both times to pitch as well as he did before each injury occurred.

If Lackey doesn’t re-sign with Los Angeles/Anaheim/California/Disneyland/Wallyworld, then the Wilpons should open up their wallets to bring him to Citi Field. The Mets haven’t had a potential dominant 1-2 punch since…heck, I have no idea! That’s how long it’s been.

If the power outage suffered by the Mets in 2009 continues in 2010, then they will have to outpitch their opponents. Having Santana and Lackey on the mound for 40% of their games will surely help them improve from their dismal 2009 season.  Let’s get it done and make John Lackey a Met in 2010!

Both Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya specifically said that the Mets needed another starting pitcher when asked about the teams most pressing need.

As most readers of this site know, the Angel’s John Lackey could be the best available starting pitcher on the market. The addition of Scott Kazmir coupled with some of the whispers from the front office, make it increasingly likely that the Angels have no intention of retaining Lackey after their season ends.

Lackey is a solid pitcher who would easily fit right into the number two slot for the New York Mets behind their ace Johan Santana. I don’t think any Mets fan will have a problem with adding John Lackey, however it is important to note that Lackey does come with some baggage.

To begin, the 31-year old Lackey isn’t your prototypical ace, but he may very well get paid like one this winter. After spending a month and a half on the disabled list with a strained elbow, Lackey finished with an 11-8 record and a 3.83 ERA.

He has failed to make 30 starts or pitch more than 180 innings in the last two seasons, and his ERA has gradually increased as well. His career ERA is 3.81 and his WHIP stands at 1.31. Good, but not great.

I do love his bulldog mentality, but he may be a lot like Billy Wagner in that “he likes to speak his mind, even if it means taking swipes at teammates”, according to a story in the Daily News.

How much money Lackey will command this winter is tough to determine at this point. Realistically, he could be looking at five year deal worth about $80 million dollars. But when you consider the lack of other quality free agent options, coupled with the number of teams who will be in the market for a top of the rotation starter, it could make for a wide scale bidding war which could mean a sixth year for Lackey and an annual average close to $17-$18 million dollars.

Last year, the Mets didn’t have the stomach for a bidding war and they passed on Derek Lowe and signed Oliver Perez instead.

Honestly, given Lackey’s age and health risks, a 5 year/$80 MM contract would come with a lot of risk. Going beyond that gives me chills down my spine. That said, I certainly do believe that the winner of the John Lackey sweepstakes will end up seriously overpaying for his services and end up getting saddled with a potentially bad contract that would make the Yankees Carl Pavano deal look like a drop in the bucket.

I’d rather trade for a healthier Roy Halladay who actually is a bona fide ace and wouldn’t pose nearly the risk that Lackey does. I’m sure teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels are thinking the same thing. Trading for Halladay and giving him a fat extension ala Johan Santana, might be the best move of the off season if you’re looking for a quality pitcher this winter.