One of the more frustrating things so far about the 2013 season for the Mets, has to be the ongoing struggles of first baseman Ike Davis. Many of us including myself, were simply salivating of the thought of a breakout season for Davis this year, especially after the way he ended the 2013 season leading the National League in home runs and RBIs.

With the exodus of Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols to the American League, some even envisioned a possible All Star berth along side Joey Votto at Citi Field for the Mid-Summer Classic.

All those glossy expectations are now out the window and instead of celebrating a great season for our first baseman of the future, we are left wondering if Ike Davis will be a part of the solution or the future at all. Trade rumors and speculation are already abounding.

Manager Terry Collins can’t make up his mind what to do with his struggling power hitter and after vowing to leave him in the cleanup spot for as long as it takes, he was dropped to the seven spot of the order two days later.

Andrew Kahn, who has written for the Wall Street Journal, Newsday and ESPN, sheds some light on the matter in a comprehensive article today which you can read here.

Using Baseball-Reference’s “Similarity Scores,” he gathers a list of players who compared with David through their age 25 seasons. Among them you will find Carlos Delgado, Mo Vaughn, Eric Karros and David Ortiz to name a few.

However, the key difference between Davis and the other players in the chart, he writes, is that they had a breakout season. “A year in which they performed close to how they’d perform over the rest of their career at age 25 or 26.”

He tackles the question I posed in the title, and does a good job of concluding that if Ike Davis is ever going to be the player we all thought he would be and thus save his career, then this is the year to prove it. Read Andrew’s full article here.

Updated by Joe D. on 4/20

What a game it was for Lucas Duda last night in the Mets 7-1 win against the Nationals. Duda had his best game ever as a Met going 2-for-3 with hit two home runs and a walk . The hulking Mets left fielder is now batting .308 for the season with five home runs and eight RBI in 14 games. Duda’s patience has paid off as Adam Rossi said it would in the post below three days ago.

Duda in now second in the Major Leagues with 12 walks, a .491 On-Base Percentage and a staggering 1.234 OPS. That’s absolutely incredible.

According to FanGraphs, Duda is swinging at only 12.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone so far this season, which again points out much of what Adam discussed in his analysis below. It’s definitely worth a second read…

Original Post April 17, 2012

Heading into the 2013, no Met has more pressure on him than Lucas Duda. For the past four years, Duda has shown flashes of power that could make him a good middle-of-the-order hitter. He has also provided a lot of head-scratching moments, somewhat unintentionally comical, both at the plate and in the field.

We know one thing is certain with Duda: he is not going to win ballgames with his defense. Nevertheless, if he can put up the power numbers that he’s been teasing everybody with this season, he should become a valuable player. All that teasing has caused Sandy Alderson and rest of this Mets front office to be very patient with Duda, and now he may finally be rewarding them for that patience because of…well…his patience.

Duda Doesn’t Chase

One could look at Lucas Duda’s stats through 13 games, see his .469 OBP, and easily realize Duda has been taking a lot of walks so far (11 walks in 49 plate appearances, to be exact). But that does not tell us much about whether or not he can sustain anything throughout the season. The following stat, however, is encouraging: 14.1% O-Swing % — in other words, Duda has only swung at 14.1% of pitches outside the strike zone. What’s even more encouraging is the fact that his O-Swing % has been steadily improving. In 2011, his O-Swing % was 29.8%, followed by 25.3% in 2012. I don’t expect his percentage to remain this low throughout the whole season, but if he can keep it under 25%, that would be significant. To understand how significant, let’s look at Joey Votto, who is arguably the most patient hitter in baseball. His career O-Swing % is 25.3%. Lucas Duda is not going to be Joey Votto, but he can at least provide part of what makes Votto such a valuable player.

With Patience Comes Power 

Obviously taking pitches helps a player with more than just his walk rate. The more pitches a batter sees, the more knowledge he gains about what the pitcher is throwing. More importantly, the more bad pitches a batter takes, the more he forces a pitcher to throw him strikes, which means the more opportunities he will get to hit a mistake and hit it hard. This has also benefited Duda early on in the season. Pitchers have thrown Duda a first pitch strike only 44.9% of the time this season, which means he has been starting off his at-bats in a 1-0 count 55% of the time. On top of that, pitchers have thrown him pitches in the strike zone 44.1% of the time, compared to 37.6% last year. What that tells me is that pitchers are starting to realize Duda won’t chase balls out of the zone, so they are being forced to throw him more strikes. As a result, Duda has improved his chances of getting a ball in the zone by 7% so far. And when you start throwing a lot of strikes to a player with Duda’s power, it’s going to result in a lot of hard hit balls.

Making Contact 

Of course, the only way Duda can make use of all the strikes he’s seeing is by making contact with the ball. This has been a problem with Duda throughout his young career, but there are once again early signs that show improvement. While he still has a pretty high strikeout rate this season (22.4%), it has been better than last year (26.1%). Also, his swing-and-miss percentage has improved by nearly 2% (7% this season, compared to 9.1% in 2012). Some of that may have to do with the fact that he isn’t swinging as much as he has in the past. Along with not swinging at pitches out of the zone, Duda also has not been swinging at as many pitches in the zone. After swinging at 64.2% of strikes in 2011 and 62.5% last year, Duda has only swung at 50% of strikes that have been thrown to him this year. That may not be a terrible thing though, since many times pitchers make good pitches that a hitter can’t do much with, even if it is a strike, and they are better off letting it go. On top of that, by not swinging as much, Duda has improved his chances of making contact when he does swing. And improving your chances can only help bring success.

It is still way too early to claim somebody a breakout player or a bust, but it is not too early to look at early season trends and try to figure out what could happen. If the Mets are going to have any success this season, there’s a good chance Lucas Duda will be a part of that. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence  then, that both he and the Mets are off to a good start.

(Note: All stats mentioned in this post are courtesy of Fangraphs)

His overall line left a lot to be desired, as he allowed four earned runs off three hits and the aforementioned six walks, while striking out four in 4.1 innings.

Wheeler is under a lot of pressure as the Mets’ top prospect right now and he seems to be running into the same issues he’s always had – walking too many batters. If you break down his start a little further, you can see that he threw 108 pitches. His strike to ball ratio was 61:47, which was rough, and nowhere near the level of efficiency we need to see from him.

He blew a 4-1 lead in the fifth inning, where he was eventually lifted in favor of Greg Peavey. To be fair, Wheeler left with the bases loaded and Peavey allowed all three inherited runners to score, but he was still wild overall and they were his runners.

This was Zack’s second start since the blister problem that was causing him discomfort in his first two starts. This was also one of Wheeler’s worst starts since joining the New York Mets organization after being acquired for Carlos Beltran.

As Mr. North Jersey mentioned in the comments, we can only hope there is no injury issue at play here, and that this is all a part of his growing pains. The potential still remains for Wheeler to become a dominant ace-like pitcher in the near future, so remember that this is all part of the process.

Thoughts from Joe D.

As I said after Wheeler’s last start, was his no-walk performance a sign of things to come, or just a fluke and a blip on the radar given the control problems that have plagued him throughout his pro career?

This is now fourth straight start in which he failed to deliver six innings. It was another start where his pitch count was remarkably bad. 108 pitches and only 61 strikes in 4.1 innings is not going to get anyone promoted to the majors no matter how high you rank on Baseball America’s Top Prospect. You still have to execute.

So far this season, Wheeler has pitched a total of 18.1 innings, averaging only 4.5 innings per start. That’s not going to cut it. He’s walked 12 and allowed 17 hits and his ERA now stands at an unsightly 4.91 his WHIP is now north of 2.00. The thing of it is that you can’t blame all those walks on the PCL or park factors. This has been a chronic problem for Wheeler throughout his career.

Collin McHugh, who I bring up all the time and am very high on, has walked just four batters in 18 innings and has 0.49 ERA to lead the team if you’re looking for a comparison.

And yet despite all of this data, day in and day out Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins are constantly bombarded with questions asking when Wheeler will be promoted.

Wheeler simply has not shown any signs that he is ready to take on the likes of Joey Votto, Bryce Harper and a host of other National League sluggers. He is not ready to mow down a major league lineup.

As one scout told Kevin Kernan yesterday, there’s dozens of pitchers who can throw 98 mph. Until Wheeler can consistently string together at least a half dozen quality starts (6.0 IP, 3 ER) calling him up shouldn’t be an option. How does promoting him now help him from a development standpoint, or more importantly how does he help the backend of our rotation?

When your pitch count is consistently around 90 pitches after four innings, how can you possibly provide any relief to an already very taxed Mets bullpen?

You can disagree with me all you want, but this is not a slight mechanical kink he needs to work out. The problem is much deeper than that. Zack Wheeler is simply not ready for major league duty and needs to show he can handle a full season in Triple-A. Currently, there are 30 qualified starting pitchers in the PCL who have a better ERA and WHIP than Zack Wheeler.

Terry Collins said back in March that if Wheeler wanted to make it to the Mets he needed to go to Las Vegas and lead the league in pitching. Wheeler isn’t even close.

One of the misconceptions about Omar Minaya’s tenure as GM is that he ignored the minor leagues, and did a bad job of developing players. But the Mets do have a solid group of young players from Minaya. We have quality players in both the majors, and minors from him.

 Lucas Duda who was drafted in the 7^th round in the 2007 MLB draft, last year did a great job filling in for Carlos Beltran, hitting .304 with 9HR’s and 36 RBI in 181 AB’s. He led all NL Rookies in OBP and SLUG%, and was 3^rd in batting average.  Duda has tremendous power and could easily hit 30HR’s in a full season. And current Mets GM, Sandy Alderson has compared Duda to Joey Votto and Jason Giambi.

Ike Davis was the Mets 1^st round pick in 2008. Davis was having a breakout season last year until he collided with David Wright trying to catch a pop up. Davis was hitting .302 with 7 HR’s and 25 RBI. If you translate that into a full season, that’s 32HR’s and 113 RBI. Davis like Duda, has tremendous power. He’s hit some really long distance HR’s, and I think there’s no doubt he can hit 30+ HR’s in a full season. And not only is he a great power hitter, but he plays gold glove caliber defense at 1^st base.

Daniel Murphy was the Mets 13^th round pick in 2006. The problem with Murphy has always been his defense, but he’s a great hitter.  He’s a career .292 hitter, and last year his average was .320. Before his injury last year, Murphy was top five in the league in hitting and in doubles. Murphy was on fire when the Mets started playing him full time, hitting .338 to the end of the year.  Now with the walls being moved in, I can see Murphy hitting 15-20HR’s.

Jon Niese was the Mets 7^th round pick in the 2005 MLB draft. Niese is a big lefthander with a nasty curveball.  I think Niese has the potential to be a number 2 or 3 starter. Last year, Niese showed flashes where he looked really good; his curveball looked almost unhittable some games.  His biggest problem has been his stamina.  His career ERA for the month of September is 7.09. He had offseason nose surgery to help with his breathing, so hopefully that will help his stamina. At age 25 I think 2012 will be a breakout year for Niese.

Ruben Tejada was signed by the Mets as an amateur free agent in 2006. Tejada is a solid middle infielder. He plays good defense, he has a good average, and OBP. What’s not to like about this guy?  The best part about him is that he’s still only 22 years old, so we likely haven’t seen him at his best yet.  Tejada  has also added  a lot muscle in the offseason, and is much stronger than he was last year, so he should hit for more power than last year.

The Mets selected Dillon Gee in the 21^st round of the 2007 draft.  Gee started off the season great, going 8-1 with a 3.32 ERA. There was even some talk of him possibly making the all-star team. But the final three months of the year were awful for Gee.  His ERA was for the last three months was 5.42. According to Gee, his problems in the 2^nd half of last season were because of fatigue. So, if Gee can work on his stamina, the Mets have a solid back of the rotation starter in Dillon Gee.

The Mets also have some good prospects in minors from Minaya like Matt Harvey. Harvey was picked 7^th overall in the 2010 draft. He was 13-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 154 K’s in 135 IP in A and AA last year. He was rated 54^th best prospect by Baseball America. Harvey’s fastball  is usually around 94-96 MPH. We might see Harvey in the majors by the end of the season, and he has the potential to be a number 1 starter.

Other players we have in the minors from Minaya are Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia. Both are hard throwers, and have the potential to be successful big league starters. Familia had a 2.90 ERA with 132 K’s in 124 IP last season in A and AA.  Mejia missed most of last year because of TJ surgery, but he’s expected to rebound from the injury, and start pitching in games again in May.

There’s also Kirik Nieuwenhuis, who was hitting .300 in AAA last season, and would have been called up to the majors  if he didn’t get injured. One of the Mets outfield prospects,  Juan Lagares, hit .350 in A and AA last season. And Darin Gorski, dominated A ball last year going 11-3 with an 2.08 ERA. The Mets also have some high upside pitchers in the low minors with  Morris, Tapia, and Urbina.

So, even though many people don’t give Minaya credit for the minor leagues, and developing players, he did leave the Mets with a solid group of young players that have a bright future.

This Fan Shot was submitted by MMO reader, Vinny B. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over ten-thousand Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask about being a regular contributor, and share your opinions with an engaging community that loves to debate.