Updated Post 1:44 PM

MLB Trade Rumors just posted something that would add to the debate on Choo as a potential acquisition for the Mets in 2014. I also updated the original post to indicate that Choo’s best position is right-field.

Of course, as with most free agents, Choo’s next contract will cover post-prime years, perhaps age 31-35.  With Boras doing the negotiating, we can’t rule out a sixth year or a salary in the $18-20MM range, plus the loss of a draft pick.

Are you guys ready for another Winter of debating the loss of a pick, even if in the Mets case it’s a second round pick based on where this season is heading?

Original Post 12:44

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, had an article this morning suggesting the Mets should make a strong attempt at signing Reds center fielder Shin-Soo Choo if they are serious about contending in 2014. Choo is a free agent at the end of this season.

Choo, 30, was acquired by the Reds in the offseason for highly regarded shortstop prospect Didi Gregorious and outfielder Drew Stubbs. According to Kepner, Cincinnati Choo was charged targeted Choo to fix their problems in the leadoff spot, which produced a .254 on-base percentage last season. So far, Choo has delivered in a big way, ranking second in the National League with a .455 on-base percentage.

The Scott Boras client has always been able to hit for average and get on base as his career .386 OBP would attest. Going into this season, he has averaged 38 doubles and 90 runs per season in his career. He also can give the Mets power and speed while providing solid range and defense in center field, though right field is his best position. The left-handed batter has averaged 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases in a typical season for him and is on a pace to smash both of those marks in his walk year with the Reds.

“He’s the big reason why we are where we are right now,” said Brandon Phillips of the Reds, who hold the second-best record in the National League. “Playing against him when he was with the Indians, I always told everybody he’s one of the best all-around players in baseball — underrated. Right now he’s just being himself. It’s a blessing to have him over here.”

Kepner also adds that the South Korean native, might be a sensation in New York, whose metropolitan area has the second-largest Korean population in the United States, behind Los Angeles.

Obviously, I love Choo and had wanted the Mets to go after him last offseason, and even though he’ll be a year older I would still have no problem bringing him on board for the 2014 season and beyond. I’m assuming it would require at least a four-year commitment and the bidding from other teams will be aggressive. That’s the part that frightens me – or should I say frightens Sandy Alderson. You see, I’ll maintain what I’ve been saying all along about him and that is that he doesn’t have the stomach for these types of negotiations. To quote myself from last October, “Alderson doesn’t have the ability to go after a desirable and marketable free-agent, it sin’t in his DNA.”

There will be other outfield options out there next offseason, assuming they are not re-signed. Jacoby Ellsbury and  Carlos Beltran are among them.

The problem is will Alderson be willing to spend and come out strong?

Or will it be another Winter of waiting for the market to settle to his liking, which of course never happens leaving him to scamper and pick the bones of whatever carcass he can find on the scrap heap?

I enjoy researching starting pitching for any reason whatsoever, so looking into them for fantasy purposes was more fun than anything else. Today brings about a top ten list for the starting pitchers out there – and unfortunately, will not feature many surprises. The best starting pitchers out there are fairly well defined at this point, but I still dove into ESPN and Yahoo! rankings just to make sure I was not off base here. I had to check in with Xtreem on this one, but the five fantasy categories for pitchers were Wins / ERA / K / WHIP / Saves …and obviously, saves don’t apply here.

I think ESPN and I were basically sharing a brain here – but Yahoo wasn’t far off since the only major difference was their pick of Wainwright over Jered Weaver, really. I’ve got the same top 10 down as ESPN, but I differ slightly in the order I chose.

10. Zack Greinke (16 / 3.44 / 220 / 1.14) – Greinke is definitely one of the top pitchers in the game right now, but his stats always come with a little bit of confusion and disappointment. Although some saber stats have shown that Greinke could be the victim of some severe bad luck, his ERA will likely always be a little higher than you hope from a fantasy ace. He might be on the back-end of the “fantasy ace” category, but Greinke moves back to the NL this year after getting a huge pay-day, which should help his numbers overall, especially his strikeouts. If all goes well, he could easily surpass the amount of wins projected, as everyone decided to go a little conservative here.

9. Cole Hamels (13 / 3.05 / 210 / 1.12 )  – I hate to admit it, but Cole Hamels has been consistent and he has been a pretty solid pitcher across all categories. I think Weaver is going to edge him out in wins and ERA so I have him ranked slightly above him here, but do not get down on Hamels. See, outside of the wins category, Hamels comes with less risk than those who are scared away by Weaver’s declining strikeout rate and as strong a track record as anybody here. Just be careful not to start him against the Mets…

8. Jered Weaver (19 / 3.02 / 175 / 1.12) – I like Jered Weaver, and I think you should too. The Angels are stacked this year and look like they could really win a lot of games – and Weaver has to be a huge part of that. People worry about his declining strikeout rate, and honestly, it is a perfectly valid criticism. You could very well be rolling the dice with Weaver, but even in a “down” year last year, he won 20 games to the tun of a 2.81 ERA.

7. Cliff Lee (14 / 2.98 / 212 / 1.04) – Cliff Lee is an outstanding pitcher and the fact that he won only 6 games last year is enough to confuse the greatest minds. Of course, if you look deep, it becomes as simple as Lee not getting much run support – although he was superb across the board yet again. A year older, a year wiser for Lee…he might decline just a little, but his unique combination of stuff, poise, and experience position him to bounce back from an anomaly in the win column to post another excellent year.

6. Matt Cain (18 / 2.94 / 195 / 1.10 ) – Consistency is a common theme for the pitchers on this list, and Matt Cain is quite obviously no different. It is really hard to find a knock against Matt Cain…in fact, the only thing you can hold against him is perhaps his inability to break that 20-win plateau, and it really isn’t his fault. Cain may not seem flashy at times, but he is definitely a smart pick. He gets it done across the board in every category and can be counted on for a solid start almost every single time out there.

5. David Price (20 / 3.01 / 220 / 1.14) – Some people worry about David Price because of the division that he pitches in and they claim that he will be hard pressed to win games. My counter argument is simple – watch this man pitch. He is a monster on the mound, and his stats in the second half of last year back that up more than any colorful adjectives that I could pull out of thin air here. In 15 starts, he won 9 games and 14 of them were quality starts – all to the tune of a 2.20 ERA / 0.98 WHIP / 108 strikeouts. The craziest thing about all of it? David Price might actually not be done improving yet.

4. Stephen Strasburg (15 / 3.00 / 230 / 1.10) – This is a conservative projection for one reason only, and it has been discussed – Strasburg may be on another type of innings limit going into this year. As ESPN notes, if they follow the Zimmermann model, Strasburg would be scheduled for a little over 190 innings this year – which is great, but you have to temper your expectations. That being said, once he is off the leash, Strasburg may just lead the MLB in strikeouts for years to come so his potential in limited innings can still make a fantasy owner’s mouth water. Just tread carefully here and do your research.

3. Felix Hernandez (15 / 2.98 / 225 / 1.07) – Oh Felix, if only you played for a better team, you might have been one of the fantasy favorites for years. Do not get me wrong – Felix Hernandez is arguably one of the best pitchers in baseball today, but fantasy wise, it does not always translate over. A lack of run support, not so perfect defense behind him, bad luck…yeah, Hernandez has seen it all and still continues to offer a desirable stat line. Drafting King Felix puts you in an area where you join the rest of his owners and do the same thing each year…just hope that Seattle at least puts it together for his starts.

2. Clayton Kershaw (17 / 2.74 / 228 / 1.06) – Do I really need to convince you to go out and pick up Clayton Kershaw? I thought not. With RA Dickey gone and Strasburg still on a potential innings limit, the National League belongs to Kersh. He can just do what comes natural and perhaps waltz his way to a Cy Young. Mind you, what comes natural to Clayton Kershaw is a miniscule ERA and a ton of strikeouts, along with one of the best WHIPs in the game. There is no stat for dominance, but man, I am sure he leads the league in it.

1. Justin Verlander (21 / 2.70 / 241 / 1.09) – If you manage to snag Justin Verlander for your fantasy team, thank your lucky stars and whatever god you pray to, because you struck fantasy gold. Any format that isn’t NL-only will find Verlander at the top of their overall boards as most likely the first pitcher to go. ESPN said it best – “Workhorse, thy name is Verlander.” Outside of success in the standard categories for starting pitching, he will also rack up a considerable amount of innings pitched. I honestly do not think there is anything I could say here that you have not already heard about Justin Verlander.

So a few things to note:

• Yahoo is higher on Adam Wainwright than I am, and so is ESPN for that matter, where he was ranked #12. I do think he has a quality year ahead of him, but I think I’m going to pass on him for now.
• 75% of experts rank RA Dickey at his ADP or higher (63). All I can say is that there is a lot to think about when drafting RA Dickey for the 2013 season, and I do not think I am equipped to provide an unbiased opinion on him. Another player who’s ADP is worth watching is Aroldis Chapman…he could start or he could pitch the later innings out of the bullpen – and he has undeniably filthy stuff.
• Yu Darvish and Matt Moore are both being ranked outside of the top 10 for starting pitchers, but could provide top-5 strikeout potential without hurting you in any other stat significantly. Tim Hudson still rocks as a cheap source for wins.
• As for some sleepers, the Mets have two bonafide ones in Jon Niese and Matt Harvey. Jon Niese is getting some respect this year, but he could be in for an even better season than projected. Josh Johnson, Jon Lester, and Dan Haren could all be in line for excellent years as well.

I hear that Xtreem has prepared his piece on the closers for later this week, so you all can look forward to that.

Rickey Henderson said it the only way Rickey would on the day he stole his 939^th base, passing Lou Brock for first on the All-time list: “Today, I’m the greatest of all time.” Mind you, Lou Brock was standing right next to Henderson when he proclaimed that over the PA system, but that’s besides the point. That statement showed the amount of confidence that Rickey had in his baseball abilities. He was the only player that could turn a base on balls into a triple. When Henderson reached first base, everyone in the stadium knew he was stealing, he went anyways, and more often than not, was safe with a career stolen base percentage of 81%. The top-ten list for career stolen bases looks like this:

1. Rickey Henderson: 1406
2. Lou Brock: 938
3. Billy Hamilton: 912
4. Ty Cobb: 892
5. Tim Raines: 808
6. Vince Coleman: 752
7. Eddie Collins: 745
8. Max Carey: 738
9. Honus Wagner: 722
10. Arlie Latham: 707

The gap between the top base stealer and the 10^th best base stealer is quite appalling; the 699 difference is half of Henderson’s total, which shows you how often he was stealing bases. For a player to match this mark in a 25-year career, they would have to average about 56 stolen bases per year.

The highest ranked active player on this list is Carl Crawford, sitting in 58^th place with 427 career stolen bases. In order to reach Rickey Henderson’s record, he needs to swipe 979 more bases. Crawford is currently 30 years old, so let’s say for argument’s sake that he plays ten more years. He would need to average about 97 stolen bases per season. That ain’t happening.

When thinking of elite base stealers today, three names come to mind: Jose Reyes, Michael Bourn, and Jacoby Ellsbury. Reyes currently has 367 stolen bases at the age of 28; if he plays until he is 40, he would need to average 87 stolen bases per season for the next 12 years. With his hamstring issues, I doubt that will happen. Michael Bourn has been at the top of the list of base stealers over the last three years. At the age of 28, he has 229 stolen bases and would need to average 98 swipes per year until he turned 40 to approach the record. Ellsbury is 27 years old and currently has 173 steals, meaning he would need to average 95 steals a year until he is 40 to approach Henderson’s record.

The morale of the story is that this record is not getting broken any time soon, mostly because no player was able to swipe a bag when everybody knew he was going to like Rickey Henderson. The only way Henderson was able to do that was because of his self-confidence. Nowadays, managers handcuff a lot of base stealers and throw up a red light in certain situations. The game has changed since Rickey was running all over the place, and since the game has changed, his record will be safe for a while.

The Mets have 53 home runs, worst in the majors.  The Phillies have 126 and the Yankees 136.  Gary Sheffield leads the team with 10 homers, and David Wright still only has 5.  FIVE. 

Speaking of Wright, while he’s batting a respectable .322, his 5 homers and 44 RBI puts him in the company of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury (5, 29), Freddy Sanchez (6, 34) or Pat Burrell (5, 32).  Those are decent players, but Wright is supposed to be more in the company of guys like Ryan Braun (16, 58) or Albert Pujols (34, 90).  In fact, Wright has similar power numbers to teammate Daniel Murphy (5, 29).  What the hell is that?

The Mets have 814 hits and 362 RBI.  The Phillies have 804 hits and 457 RBI.  Think about that….less hits, but almost 100 more runs batted in? 

The Mets have one complete game, and it’s not by Johan…it’s by Livan.  The Giants and Royals each have 8 complete games to lead the majors.  The GIANTS and ROYALS.

Mets’ pitchers have given up 361 walks, trailing only Washington (365) for worst in the majors.  And of course, their 10 balks leads the majors by far, thanks mostly to Pelfrey’s “yips.” 

The Mets could have had Raul Ibanez, who has 24 homers, 65 RBI and is batting .316 for you-know-who.  

The Phillies’ notable rookie this year is pitcher JA Happ, who is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 65 strikeouts.  The Mets’ notable rookie is F-Mart, who is batting .176 with one homer and 8 RBI. 

Amazingly, the Mets’ hitters have only struck out 501 times, which is best in the majors.  But I guess power hitters strike out more, and the Mets have almost no power, so in that context it makes sense. 

The Phillies’ top home run hitters are Ibanez (24), Ryan Howard (23), Chase Utley (21) and Jayson Werth (20).  The Mets’ top home run hitters are Sheffield (10), Carlos Beltran (8), and Wright (5).  Oh, and Jeff Francoeur also has 5, but he hit most of those with the Braves. 

I probably just made you all sick, and I’m right there with you.  I can’t wait for this season to be over so we can move on!