This contribution was borne out of several discussion this offseason in our MMO chat room in which many have heaped praise on Paul DePodesta and J.P. Ricciardi for their player evaluation skills and success in the draft, while knocking the Mets farm system and the player evaluation skills of Omar Minaya.

I wanted to compare the three as fairly as I possibly could, and I thought the best way to do that would be to start at 2000 and look at the the top ten draft picks for all three GM’s or Assistant GM’s up until 2008. I chose to stop at 2008 because it’s still too early to evaluate the last two Amateur Drafts of 2009 and 2010.

I’m not happy with how some are choosing to portray Minaya in a poor light when it comes to player evaluation. You want to say he was a bad GM, that’s your prerogative, but in my opinion he was on his way to being a great GM until 2006 happened. That one post season took him off course and he steered the Mets right off the map of his original well conceived master plan for the franchise. He should have stayed true to himself and his five year plan.

Minaya has always been and still is a great evaluator of talent. Too many have forgotten that one of the reasons Minaya was hired in the first place was because of his eye for talent — he scouted and signed several star players including Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzalez and Jose Reyes. He was also the Assistant GM when the Mets drafted David Wright, a fact too many forget.

I gave Ricciardi and DePodesta credit for their time as Assistant GM’s with Oakland just so we could look at a good long body of work

I also decided to leave out the glory years for Minaya where he was responsible for the success stories I already mentioned. Basically, I wanted to keep it fair, but also as current as possible.

So let’s see how all three of these executives fared in nine years worth of draft data. Keep in mind that I will also point out instances where a player who was selected may have been flipped or traded for another player because that’s all part of the game too. Click the following image for the full version of their draft records from 2000-2008 or click here.

 Year By Year Draft Summary

2000

DePodesta and Ricciardi can’t boast much success with this draft. Only two players even made it to the Major Leagues; Freddie Bynum .234 BA, and Marcus Gwyn 11.81 ERA. Omar Minaya on the other hand, netted six major leaguers in the first ten rounds, none however were star caliber players, but in this analysis there is strength in numbers.

Edge: Omar Minaya

2001

The Dynamic Duo fared much better in 2001 with seven players reaching the majors, three of them stuck around for more than a couple of years. Bobby Crosby won the Rookie of the Year with a .239 AVG and 141 K’s, but never reached such lofty numbers again because he was rendered a part time player the rest of his career. Jeremy Bonderman was also drafted in the first round, but was traded after as the player to be named later in a deal to acquire pitcher Ted Lilly. Lilly would only play one full season for the A’s before hitting free agency. Other guys who made it to the majors included Neal Cotts and Dan Johnson. Nobody from this 2001 haul is currently an active major leaguer.

Omar Minaya hit the jackpot in 2001 when the Mets selected perennial all star third baseman David Wright, and relief pitcher Aaron Heilman. Both are still gainfully employed. Third rounder Lenny DiNardo also made it to the majors and actually ended up pitching three seasons for, you guessed it, the Oakland A’s.

Edge: Omar Minaya by a landslide.

2002

Ricciardi is now running the show for the Blue Jays and four of his ten picks made it to The Show, the best of them being pitcher Dave Bush. However Bush was traded to the Brewers for Lyle Overbay before he got his feet wet as a Blue Jay. Ironically, the only other player he selected who had a few years in the Bigs was Russ Adams. Yes the same Russ Adams who officially retired as a Mets minor leaguer yesterday.

Depo had seven first round picks! Of those seven, notables included Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton and Mark Teahen. Swisher and Blanton are solid and have had some good seasons, Teahen not so much, but he was a part of the deal that sent Carlos Beltran to the Astros. The other eight rounds weren’t as fruitful.

Omar is now in Montreal working for MLB and being a caretaker for the cash-strapped Expos. Not being able to go over slot really hurt, and only Mike O’Connor is still around and was recently called up by the Mets.

Edge: Paul DePodesta

2003

Two years ago I would have told you I loved Aaron Hill, but he’s looking more and more like a one-year wonder for Ricciardi who selected him in the first round. However, Shawn Marcum was a nice find for J.P. in the third, but is now having a stellar start to the season for the Brewers. This was Depo’s last hurrah with Oakland and the one and only  player from this draft class to crack the major leagues for good was Andre Ethier, who would be traded 18 months later for Milton Bradley before he ever got at-bat with the A’s. Meanwhile, 2005 All Star and saves leader Chad Cordero racked up 20 wins, 128 saves, a 2.18 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP for Omar and his Expos before disaster struck and Cordero was felled by arm injuries.

Edge: Tied between Paul DePodesta and Omar Minaya 

2004

J.P. Ricciardi found himself a decent power hitting first baseman in the third round in Adam Lind, but that’s about all that came out of it for the Jays. The Dodgers were able to get utility infielder Blake Dewitt in this draft, but again nothing else to get excited about. Depo’s best pick was in the 19th round when he selected a 17 year old left-hander from Tennessee, but the kid decided he wanted to go to college. He resurfaced 4 years later when the Rays selected him with the number one overall pick. His name? David Price. Sorry Paul, you only get credit for those you sign. Omar probably couldn’t wait to get out of dodge in Montreal and his draft produced a few major leaguers in Ian Desmond, Collin Balester and Billy Bray, or in other words a whole lot of nothing.

Edge: J.P. Ricciardi

2005

I love Rickey Romero, who Ricciardi took in the first round. He’s a solid left-hander who had a good season last year and seems to be building on it this season. He’s racked up 67 starts for the Jays with a 3.90 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. So far, none of the other top ten rounds have yielded any major leaguers. DePodesta drafted Luke Hochevar with his first pick, but alas he snubbed the Dodgers for the second time and didn’t sign. But have hope Dodger fans, his second pick that year was Ivan DeJesus who is getting his cup of coffee as we speak and is batting a non robust .179 with a .320 OPS. Third baseman Josh Bell also got a cup of coffee in 2010, but the Dodgers decided they saw enough and he wasn’t invited back for the 2011 season after an ugly .214 AVG and .525 OPS. The Mets didn’t strike gold in 2006, but they did fare better than the Dodgers and Blue Jays garnering two-fifths of their starting rotation with Mike Pelfrey and Jon Niese, a hard throwing reliever in Bobby Parnell, their starting catcher Josh Thole, and even Pedro Beato was selected, but didn’t sign.

Edge: Omar Minaya

2006

The Blue Jays selected Travis Snyder with their top pick in 2006, the only player from their draft to make it to the majors. Snyder is still getting regular time as the Blue Jays left-fielder, but if he don’t improve on his .184 BA and .540 OPS, he may soon find himself back in the thin air of Las Vegas where numbers tend to be bloated as we saw with Brad Emaus. DePodesta didn’t draft in 2006, having been curbed by the Dodgers before the start of the season. As for Omar and the Mets, it’s a little complicated… You see, the Mets didn’t have a first round pick this year, but they did select Kevin Mulvey in the second round. So what right? Wrong, Mulvey was the jewel to the package that landed the Mets Johan Santana. The Mets also reaped an Irish lad by the name of Murphy who now lays claim to the second base job. Joe Smith who was the Mets second pick is carving out a nice career as a reliever for the Cleveland Indians.

Edge: Omar Minaya

2007

The Blue Jays did very well in selecting Brett Cecil who has become one of the key starters in their rotation and won 15 games in 2009, had a solid season in 2010, and is on his way to a good season this year. They also got a starting catcher out of the deal as well. Not much to brag about for Minaya or DePodesta in this draft, neither have anyone worth mentioning.

Edge: J.P. Ricciardi

2008

Depo is still waiting for someone to get to the majors from this draft class. His first pick was Allan Dykstra who was still struggling in Single-A when the Padres finally gave up on him and traded him to the Mets last month for Eddie Kunz. Dykstra has a 30% strikeout rate and a .234 professional batting average. The Mets front office, where Depo now resides, decided that Dykstra was worthy of a promotion so he now flails in Binghamton, where they could use a stiff breeze this time of the year. Ricciardi hasn’t had any major leaguers come out of this draft class either. In 2008, the Blue Jays had the #17 pick in the draft and they selected David Cooper. You know him right? He’s the player that was selected right before the Mets took… Ike Davis. Oh yeah, Omar Minaya hit pay-dirt in 2008 and the Mets have been reaping the benefits of this draft for well over a year now and may have even found themselves a core player who may supplant the chosen one, David Wright. In addition to Ike Davis, the Mets have a few other highly regarded prospects on the way in Reese Havens, Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Brad Holt.

Edge: Omar Minaya

The Tale Of The Tape

Omar Minaya: 5 W – 3 L – 1 T

J.P. Ricciardi: 2 W – 6 L – 0 T

Paul DePodesta: 1 W – 7 L – 1 T

Final Thoughts

According to my scorecard, Omar Minaya blew away the field. In the final analysis, Omar Minaya drafted more Major League players than J.P. Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta combined since 2000. Omar Minaya has netted twice as many All Star players as Depo and J.P. combined. The mythology that prevails in the MMO Chat Room is just that, mythology. The new guys are not better talent evaluators than Omar Minaya and never have been. Maybe some day they may match the accomplishments of Omar Minaya, but we won’t know that until they first have at least 4-5 successful drafts. The Draft Record is there for you to see for yourself.

This Fan Post was written by and contributed by Met Maniac.

But being a huge Pelfrey supporter does not make me one of those apologists. I call myself jokingly a “homer” but I am a realistic optimist when it comes to him. Of course I have a soft spot in my heart for home grown talent and especially for home grown pitchers, but I am realistic in acknowledging that Mike Pelfrey’s start this season is a cause for concern.

What I don’t appreciate is when Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo were let go by the Mets organization that most people were looking to find their next scapegoat. I was surprised when I heard most people wanting to go after Mike Pelfrey, a guy who just won 15 games the year prior. But it was an easy target: after all, we knew he was a head case and here was Mets manager Terry Collins putting the label “ace” on him with the absence of Johan Santana. Now, I know Mike Pelfrey isn’t the “ace” of a rotation with or without Johan Santana, and probably will never be…But outside of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee (of course those two are bad examples since they are on the same team), Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia and Felix Hernandez, are there truly “aces” like the way we were schooled on them (like the Tom Seavers, Nolan Ryans, Dwight Goodens, Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, Juan Marichal, etc) left in baseball today?

But that’s not even the question here. What I want to know is the following about starting Mike Pelfrey or keeping him around at all…when he’s playing for an NL East team and he pitches HORRIBLY against NL East teams???

Here’s a newsflash folks: It’s not about his head, it’s not about whether he’s good or not, whether he’s a fly ball pitcher or strikeout pitcher or whatever, it’s the fact that he can’t perform well against any NL East team on the road.

Against NL East teams, here is a sampling of Mike Pelfrey’s career numbers against NL East teams. 

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Source: Baseball Reference

These are teams he’s going to face the most over a given time season. He has GOT to bring it better than what the numbers show above.

But to add insult to injury, he seems to only perform decently against these teams while at CitiField. Did you know he’s never won a game at Nationals Park in four starts? And he’s got an over NINE ERA against the Phillies in Citizens Bank Park! No wonder Ryan Howard can tee off him there!

                                                                  .

Source: Baseball Reference

Needless to say, those numbers are pretty atrocious, barring any start against any other team. While Pelfrey has been consistently inconsistent at times in his career, the fact is he’s been abysmal against the very teams that he has to absolutely step up his game.

Why are we discussing this now? Clearly, I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Sandy Alderson and the crew backing him up in JP Ricciardi and Paul DePodesta. After all, they didn’t make any rash decisions until they were able to see the team perform; they didn’t go wild and crazy with the free agency market and setting the team back even further; they were able to cut ties with those who needed to (Pedro Feliciano ,Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo) and round out the rest of the team and bullpen with some high-reward low-risk types (Chris Young, Chris Capuano, and Jason Isringhausen to name a few).

If I can be pleased that they didn’t jump the gun simply for jumping it, I have to say that I am dismayed at a few things. One is that I’ve been thrown under the bus for suggesting Angel Pagan should have been traded in the offseason. I still believe they could have gotten better value for him then. Two is that for a front office team that is so heavily reliant on stats, the decision should have been a no-brainer: the 20/20 hindsight of trading Mike Pelfrey at his high value.

It’s not even trading him at his high value. Mike Pelfrey, while he has shown some glimmers of hope and talent there over the years, is maddeningly inconsistent against NL East teams. If a schmoe blogger like myself can easily look up some stats on Baseball Reference, chances are they dropped the ball on this. Now, Pelfrey has shown that he’s got issues again, and unless he has a bounceback month (which I won’t totally rule out), the fact is the Mets aren’t going to get any value for Mike Pelfrey whatsoever. At least, to the extent of what they’ve invested in him already.

Look, don’t get me wrong. I love Mike Pelfrey. No one wants to see him succeed more than me (well, maybe I know a few others over at Brooklyn Met Fan who do). I am also of the frame of mind that if he can succeed elsewhere I can put my homerism aside and let him be the best he can be someplace else. His stats suggest that he’s been successful against AL East teams (of all things) and against NL Central teams. Some team wouldn’t have wanted to take a gander at him?

Most of all, I believe that when Mike Pelfrey leaves, he’ll come back to bite us in the ass, Nolan Ryan-style. I can see Big Pelf being a force on another team. To me, sad as I am to admit to it, his time may have come and gone here in New York. I just wish that it didn’t take a month into the season for everyone to realize this.

If the latter thought tags me as an optimist, then consider my glass half-full (but bartender, please keep the refills comin’).  Yet, the dialogue has continued into the organization’s past, present and future.  Present times it’s easy: the Mets are going on hungrier talent from within, plus a few reclamation projects with some upside and an intact core of talent that’s getting older (but on good days we can see why they were once the Children of our Future).  The future we see in fuzzier terms.  The new brass has a plan and while able to listen to the rumblings of fans in the current construct, they are willing to take a more patient approach in internal growing.  As for the past, well, it’s evident in seeing David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, among others.  But we know after this season, one of those three will still certainly be a Met…

This brings me to a cycle of abuse that the Mets have had historically, not just in the free-spending Omar Minaya administration, but even dating back to the M. Donald Grant days.  Couple that with since basically the Joe McIlvaine days (which in baseball parlance, lasted about 15 minutes), there hasn’t been a steady draft or even a drafting plan.  It’s a double-edged sword, building one’s team.  If one chooses to do the free agent route, one has to part with many first round draft picks and harbor questions about future performance.  If you go the prospect route, some of them might not pan out, but can be used as bargaining chips to solidify teams that are one or two pieces away from it all.

If you’ve read the Maple Street Press Mets Annual 2011, two pieces addressed these very issues.  Jon Springer, of Mets by the Numbers fame, wrote a piece on the Mets history of free agency dealings titled “I’ll Buy That For A Dollar,” while Toby Hyde of Mets Minor League blog wrote a piece on the last draft that Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta and JP Ricciardi are working around called “Back Draft: Same Old Song in the Last Minaya Draft.”  By the way, if you haven’t read the MSP Mets Annual, well…why haven’t you?

Springer lays the foundation for the Mets history of free agency, starting mostly in the M. Donald Grant era, which famously lost two superstars in Tom Seaver and Dave Kingman to begin with, then set off a chain of events that kept the Mets from not only being uncompetitive, but being basically rock bottom in anything.  The idea, Grant suggested, is that “we’re sportsmen — we’re not in it for the money,” until, Springer relates, money got involved.  Grant went on to say that by not going after high-profile free agents that he was keeping costs low and visiting the ballpark as a cost that was within reach.  This in and of itself was a double-edged sword.  If he wasn’t putting money into the team, why should the fans?  We see some of that now, except prices are high for free-spending at CitiField these days, but with absolutely nothing to show for it except for some guys who are still being paid to potentially play for other teams.

However, it wasn’t for lack of trying.  In a twist of fate, they showed interest in Gary Matthews, Sr. (you may remember his son, who had a bloated free agent contract himself with the Angels), but was about $750K less than what he eventually signed for.  You see, we did show interest, we felt we gave him a fair offer but it was trumped.  However, how much of it was a low-balling-let’s-hope-he-really-doesn’t-take-it offer?

Even Frank Cashen’s days weren’t without free agent drama.  For a General Manager who was revered as a visionary in his time, and is even a charter member of the Mets Hall of Fame, his luck with free agents wasn’t all that great.  Take for instance losing out on the Dave Winfield sweepstakes, who went to cross-town rivals the Yankees, and settling for George Foster instead.  This appears to be a common thread in Mets lore.  Even though Minaya didn’t show interest or visibly anyway, settling for Jason Bay who was the “second best guy” in the free agent pool in the going-into-2010-season, after Matt Holliday.  It’s tough to judge who might have been the better signing, but that’s neither here nor there.  The point is, the Mets have had to settle for “sloppy seconds” in the free agency pools.  How much of it was perception of playing with the Mets (did anyone truly prefer playing in Queens as opposed to the Bronx or anywhere else for that matter?) or was it that they truly felt they were giving what they thought was fair market value and allowed FAs to walk out?

Springer even relates how the Mets lost out on Darryl Strawberry going into 1991 as a free agent.  After negotiations went south with a contract extension, Cashen panicked and had to instead give extra money to Vince Coleman.  A few firecrackers later, we know how that one turned out.  Here’s the thing though: if Cashen maybe was a little more serious about keeping Strawberry, perhaps not lowball him (even though Straw made it clear he’d wanted to play for his hometown team, the Dodgers).  Overall, this attitude seems to be one that pervades even more recent teams.  Let’s overpay the guy we didn’t really want just to say we got him.

Like I said, a cycle of crash and burn that ended with the release of Castillo and Perez.

Springer did a good job of intermingling the drafts in between those times.  Cashen was gifted in that he was able to trade off some valuable pieces he inherited for value (take for instance his deal that sent fan favorite Lee Mazzilli to the Texas Rangers for Walt Terrell – who in turn ended up into Howard Johnson — and Ronnie Darling, whom we still hear today).  Creativity is something that had to come into play, but if a General Manager lacked that acumen, it meant trouble.  Not saying that only happens to the Mets, but we follow them so closely, it does hit close to home.

The idea is that in the last few years, the farm system is a little middle-of-the-road, too MOTR for Alderson’s liking as he’s said, which is how Toby Hyde starts his discussion with “Development is Job One.”   It’s a misnomer that big market teams should spend big; they should also develop big to use as bargaining chips or to have them become superstars after development.  It’s clear after reading Hyde’s piece that the Mets system isn’t neglected nor barren: it just needs some structure.

Which leads into the “Back Draft” piece.  An issue that seems to pervade the front office thinking is that there is a strict adherence to the slotting guidelines set forth by the Commisioner.  I think this is something that needs to change, personally, and perhaps we will see these changes with this so-called executive dream team.  However, the last draft was indicative of previous Minaya drafts: “parallels continued into specific picks” according to Hyde.  Minaya liked to collect arms; I guess one could argue there is no such thing as too much pitching, but on the other hand, it doesn’t give a lot of diversification in building around a core unit.  The good news is that there is some bona fide talent in the system such as Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Cory Vaughn and Matt den Denker.  The bad news, if you can even call it that, it will take a few years before they are truly “ready.”  Perhaps Nieuwenhuis is the closest, according to Hyde’s estimates.

These two, actually three, articles jumped out at me because we’ve discussed this ad nauseum on the boards here at Metsmerized Online, and even in person when I get together to discuss Mets baseball with other fans.  The free agency cycle for the Mets has caused horrific crashing and burning that we’ve had to sit through and deal with, while the farm system lays barren that was mostly done to keep progress of winning teams going.

It backfired.  We’ve seen more bad than good come out of that.  I think it’s high time to try another route, one that won’t cause these dramatic peaks and valleys that make me write 1500 word posts.  In any event, ESPN came out with a piece on how the Mets are paying their dumped players the most.  Along with all the other poor contracts they got out of in the early 2000s, it’s evident that the cycle needs to end.  Period.

In the meantime, I highly suggest reading the Maple Street Press.  If I can get this much out of it, imagine what you can!