A year ago Davis was coming off the valley fever scare and ankle injury. His .156/.212/.290 slash line could be intellectualized. Similar numbers (.149/.229/.248) this year are reason for concern. There are many players that are slow starters, but are the Mets’ doomed to Davis not showing up the first ten weeks of the season? Has reality set in that he might be a 4-A hitter with flawed mechanics at the plate?

Davis and Jacobs are not exactly apples to apples comparison. Ike was a highly touted first round pick in 2008. His struggles in Brooklyn during his rookie year in pro ball were well documented. Jacobs was a 38th round pick that nobody talked about when he had a breakout 2005 season in Binghamton. He was supposed to be an injury replacement at the big league level, but If not for Pedro Martinez‘s lobbying after a Sunday afternoon home run, we never would have been treated to Jacobs’ September to remember. It’s also possible that Carlos Delgado would never have been acquired that offseason.

As a full-time first baseman from 2006-2008, Mike Jacobs averaged 23 homers, 75 RBI and a .258 batting average. In his two full seasons of work (2010, 2012) Davis has produced 25 homers and 75 RBI with a similar average. Both produce about the same level of strikeouts, although Davis has the penchant to walk a bit more- although probably not enough for the organization’s liking. Both struggle against left handers. Defensively, there is no comparison. Even when he’s struggled Davis has gold glove potential. Jacobs was only plugged-in at first after failing behind the plate. Still, a first baseman needs to hit at an elite level to be considered valuable. If Jacobs is the best that Davis has to offer, then it’s probably time to question if the Mets have a cornerstone at first base for years to come. Should they package Davis if and when he heats up again? Will a trip to the minors help? Is Lucas Duda the answer? Can they afford to pay for a first baseman on the free agent market?

Many scouts have expressed concern over Davis’ mechanics at the plate. It’s complicated, awkward looking and appears difficult to replicate. The more “noise” a player has in the box the harder it will be to hit a baseball, an already difficult task. Can this be fixed? That is hard to predict, but Davis wouldn’t be the first hot-shot hitting prospect to fizzle at the big league level. At the very least a trip to Triple-A Las Vegas should be on the table.

The Mets got lucky when both Jose Reyes and David Wright developed best case scenarios upon their call-up a decade ago. Prospects are an inexact science and, to date, none of the current group of homegrown players has shown to be consistent everyday big leaguers, much less stars.

WFAN callers rarely provide for intelligent or even interesting commentary. Comedy is more how I would describe my experience. Ironically, a caller to the midday show just might have uncovered a hard reality: Ike Davis is no better than a former flash in the pan prospect. I doubt even a productive final four months of 2013 will net a player any close to Delgado’s capabilities. Remember, lightening doesn’t strike twice.

Despite a major league pedigree and respect for his tools (Baseball America Top 15 organizational prospect three years running), Binghamton Mets outfielder Cory Vaughn had yet to put all his tools together. His power and speed didn’t show up until 2012, but he hit .243. In St. Lucie in 2011, Vaughn hit .286 before his promotion, but only four home runs. After the promotion, he more than doubled his home run total, but the batting average dipped to .219.

That’s all changed, however. Vaughn’s tearing it up to the tune of .307/.392/.500 with five home runs in 130 plate appearances and is fresh off an Eastern League Player of the Week award. He’s got five stolen bases in six chances, and this is all in his first season at AA Binghamton. One would expect an adjustment period after the jump from High A, and even though you couldn’t tell by the numbers, Vaughn has had a lot to adjust to.

“There’s been a lot of adjustments going on, from the weather to this past off season to working with our hitting coach Luis [Natera],” explained Vaughn. “Basically just go out there and play the game hard and never stop working and never stop grinding, you know? So it’s been paying off, but you still have to work hard no matter what.”

Binghamton Manager Pedro Lopez agrees. “I would say that he’s been making adjustments as he goes along. I think he’s got the right mindset right now in order for him to get better. You’re looking at somebody who’s on a mission right now. Every chance that he gets, he’s making the best out of it. The thing is, especially when you get to this level, is to make sure that you got your ears open for any suggestions.”

Vaughn also made an adjustment to his batting stance. He attributes a mechanical adjustment he made to the placement of his hands to his success. The bat used to stand straight up with his hands by his ear, but keeping the bat flatter and lower has helped him stay through the ball.

“I really just kind of sit the bat on my shoulder so my hands would be more in the slot. You know, A to B,” explains Vaughn. “The quickest way to one point is a straight line. So I just try to “A to B” it and it’s been working out pretty well.”

Hitting Coach Luis Natera explains that with the longer swing, he was in an out of the zone too quickly and tended to hook everything. “Now he’s working to stay through the zone a little longer and his lower half is working much better. He was landing with his front foot on his heel. It made him pull off everything. Now he made that transition to landing on his toes and it leaves the front heel up that keeps him through the zone a little longer. Now those balls that he hooked foul are in the left-center gap.”

Both Lopez and Natera also commend his approach at the plate. “One thing he’s doing well to this point is trying to get a good pitch to hit and when he gets it, he’s not missing many,” said Lopez. “That goes with our whole hitting philosophy. Try to get a good pitch to hit and right now he’s doing a good job at it.”

Coach Natera has also been impressed with his new student. “He’s got a lot of confidence. What I hear from other coaches is that he was afraid to hit with two strikes. Now he’s not afraid to take a borderline strike to get to his pitch.”

When asked directly if looking to take borderline strikes detract from Vaughn’s natural aggressiveness, Natera refutes the idea. “Any hitter, if he’s afraid of hitting with two strikes, is going to swing at a pitcher’s pitch [early in the count] and that’s tough to hit. And now he’s not afraid to take those pitches on the corner and wait for that pitcher to make a mistake.”

And despite the fact that Vaughn has improved his slugging percentage steadily over the last three seasons, Coach Natera is still being patient on that front. “Power in young hitters is the last to come,” he explains. “Now he has to work on being a hitter. The power is there. He just has to work the strike zone like he’s been working and keep his hands back through the zone. He’ll hit for power on pitcher’s mistakes and I think everything now is coming together.”

Lopez agrees. “It’s paying off for him to this point and I hope he continues to do what he’s doing.”

The Mets’ struggling first baseman is hitting .156 with four homers and nine RBI.  His on-base percentage is an unhealthy .238 and his .259 slugging percentage is lower than what his batting average should be.  His 2013 numbers through 40 games are very similar to what he put up last year at the same juncture (.160/.220/.298, five homers, 14 RBI).

Clearly, Ike Davis needs a change of scenery to have any hope of salvaging his season.  A demotion to AAA-Las Vegas might not be the answer, as the altitude at Cashman Field and other Pacific Coast League ballparks might give him a false sense of confidence if he hits well there like most other hitters do.  After all, hitting a few thousand feet above sea level is not the same as hitting a few thousand millimeters above Flushing Bay.

Sending Davis to AA-Binghamton might be the medicine needed to cure his ills at the plate, since his offensive numbers would not be inflated there as they would be in Las Vegas.  And if the Mets need an example to prove to them that sending a struggling first baseman to the minors could be just what the doctor ordered, they can flip through the pages of their own history books and find a similar case that occurred over forty years ago.

Ladies and gentle-Mets, I give to you the case of one Edward Emil Kranepool.

A little minor league action made Eddie steady at the plate.

In 1970, veteran first baseman Ed Kranepool got off to a start that would even have Ike Davis shaking his head.  Through his first 26 games, Kranepool was hitting .118 with no homers and one RBI.  The New York native was barely getting any playing time and as a result, his offensive production was suffering.  In late June, the Mets sent Kranepool down to AAA-Tidewater, where the 25-year-old flourished.

Playing in 47 games with the Tides, Kranepool hit .310 with eight doubles, three triples, seven homers and 45 RBI.  By mid-August, the Mets were convinced that Kranepool’s time in the minors was going to help him produce at the major league level, so they promoted him back to the big club.  However, the platoon of Donn Clendenon and Art Shamsky at first base relegated Kranepool to pinch-hitting duties, but when he did get a chance to hit, he performed well, batting .308 with a .357 on-base percentage in 14 plate appearances.

By the start of the 1971 campaign, Kranepool had won back his job as the lefty-hitting component of the first base platoon with Donn Clendenon.  Kranepool responded by putting up career highs in many offensive categories.  Although he only had 467 plate appearances in 1971 – he had already completed three seasons in which he reached 500 plate appearances – Kranepool set new career marks in RBI (58), runs scored (61), batting average (.280), on-base percentage (.340) and slugging percentage (.447).  He also recorded his second 20-double campaign and launched 14 home runs, while becoming one of the toughest hitters to strike out in the National League (33 strikeouts in 467 plate appearances).

Kranepool’s success was not limited to the 1971 season.  In 1972, the first baseman and part-time outfielder batted .269 and contributed 24 extra-base hits in 327 at-bats.  After a subpar 1973 campaign, Kranepool rebounded to hit .300 in 1974 and a career-high .323 in 1975.

Although Kranepool was now in his 30s and a veteran of 14 seasons in the big leagues, he continued to hit in 1976 and 1977, combining to hit .287 with 34 doubles, 20 homers and 89 RBI in 696 at-bats over the two seasons, all while maintaining his excellent ability to make contact (58 strikeouts in 764 plate appearances).

From the time he made his major league debut in 1962 to his career-changing demotion in 1970, Kranepool hit .246 with a .300 on-base percentage, .358 slugging percentage and a .658 OPS (on-base plus slugging).  He produced 188 extra-base hits in 2,917 at-bats (an average of 15.5 AB/XBH) and walked 227 times while striking out on 361 occasions.  After he was promoted back to the Mets in August 1970, Kranepool was a changed man.

Beginning with his first game back on August 14, 1970 and lasting through the end of the 1977 season, Kranepool hit .284 with a .340 on-base percentage, .407 slugging percentage and a .747 OPS.  Kranepool collected 168 extra-base hits in 2,270 at-bats (an average of 13.5 AB/XBH) and drew 205 walks while striking only 189 times.

Kranepool’s demotion turned him into a hitter who drove the ball more often – on average, it took him two fewer at-bats to collect an extra-base hit – and forced pitchers to throw him strikes, as evidenced by his 16 more walks than strikeouts following his demotion after striking out nearly twice per every free pass prior to his time at Tidewater.

So what’s the point of this Ed Kranepool history lesson?  Simply stated, if at first you don’t succeed, try again in the minors.  It worked for the 25-year-old Kranepool when he was shipped off to Tidewater.  It can work for the 26-year-old Ike Davis as well, but only if he is sent to Binghamton instead of Las Vegas.

Ike Davis has never been a good contact hitter, striking out 356 times in 1,306 career at-bats.  But he did hit for a decent batting average prior to the 2012 season (Davis hit a combined .271 in 2010 and 2011) and his .357 on-base percentage and .817 OPS were better than average in his first two seasons with the Mets.

If Ike Davis closes his eyes, does he see his lofty strikeout totals?

The Mets have a history of getting good performances from their veteran players after sending them on an unexpected trip to the minors.  Steve Trachsel was a completely different pitcher after his demotion in 2001.  Trachsel was 1-6 with an 8.24 ERA before being sent down to AAA-Norfolk.  He was 10-7 with a 3.35 ERA after he was recalled from the minors.  Trachsel’s resurgence came just one year after the Mets sent veteran right-hander Bobby Jones to Norfolk after he posted a 16.20 ERA in his first three starts of the 2000 campaign.  Upon his return to the major leagues, Jones posted an 11-5 record with a more respectable 4.56 ERA.  He also threw a complete-game one-hit shutout to clinch the National League Division Series for the Mets against the Giants.

Of course, those were pitchers who fared well after their time in the minors.  But the Mets have also seen hitters do well after a short stint in the minors.  And one particular hitter who learned greatly from his time away from the parent club was Ed Kranepool.

All the Mets have to do is dust off the team’s history books and look at what happened when they sent Kranepool to the minors in 1970.  The first baseman came back from his minor league stint and turned into one of the steadiest hitters in the lineup for years following his demotion.  The same thing can happen to the Mets’ current first baseman if the team isn’t afraid to send Ike Davis to Binghamton.

Ed Kranepool wasn’t succeeding at first in 1970, so the Mets gave him a little minor league seasoning to inject some life back into his career.  The Mets must try that formula again in 2013 to help Ike Davis get back to the level he fell from after suffering a season-ending injury in 2011.  The recipe for success is right there.  The Mets just have to be willing to try it again.

Starting Lineup

1. Daniel Murphy – 2B
2. Justin Turner – 1B
3. David Wright – 3B
4. Marlon Byrd – RF
5. Lucas Duda – LF
6. Anthony Recker – C
7. Ruben Tejada – SS
8. Juan Lagares – CF
9. Dillon Gee – RHP

Game Notes

The Mets have scored three or fewer runs in 10 of their last 12 games and in 15 of their last 21 games. Overall, New York is averaging 4.25 runs per game, the seventh-most in the NL. New York ranks 28th with a .231 team batting average.

The Mets are hitting .216 (16-74) with runners in scoring position over its last 12 games. They are fifth in the NL and 12th in the majors with a .259 (77-297) batting average with RISP. The club has 11 home runs in such situations, tied for the seventh-most in the majors. David Wright is hitting .429 (15-35) with RiSP, the seventh-best mark in the National League.

Daniel Murphy went 2-4 yesterday. Murphy is hitting .368 (14-38) with three doubles and eight RBI in 10 career games at Wrigley. He is 13-for-his-last-24 (.542) over his last six games and currently has a seven-game hitting streak (14-28, .500). Murphy is batting .392 on the road this season, the third-best mark in the NL.

David Wright extended his hitting streak to six games going 1-4 yesterday…Wright is batting .417 (10-24) with four RBI during this span. Wright is hitting .357 (20-56) with three doubles, four home runs and eight RBI in May. He ranks second in the NL and fourth in the majors with a .409 mark during day games.

Justin Turner is hitting .319 (15-47) in his 12 starts this year. He has multi-hits in four of those starts. Overall, Turner is batting .305 (18-59) with three doubles and five RBI in 24 games this year.

Game Preview

The Mets look to bounce back from yesterday’s loss this afternoon as Dillon Gee takes on Travis Wood in the rubber game in Chicago. Yesterday the Mets just could not get it done on all fronts, but Rick Ankiel still hit a homer. Anyway, let’s hope for the the best today!

Dillon Gee is 2-5 on the season over 8 games with 39.2 innings of work while posting an ERA of 6.13. In the month of May he has made two poor starts sandwiched around a good start thus making 1-1 over 14.0 innings of work with a 6.43 ERA while walking 7 and striking out 9. Last year he was 1-1 over 13.0 innings with a 3.46 ERA. The Cubs have the following numbers against Gee:

Castro 3-9
Barney 2-9
Soriano 1-8, 2B
DeJesus 3-7
Rizzo 3-6, 2B

The Mets bats will get a crack at Travis Wood today who is 4-2 over 8 games and 53.1 innings of work with a 2.03 ERA. He’s 2-1 over 3 games over 21.1 innings with a 1.69 ERA while walking 6 batters and striking out 13 batters. Last year he was 2-0 against the Mets over 13.0 innings with a 1.38 ERA. The Mets have the following numbers against Wood:

Byrd 2-9, 2B
Tejada 0-8
Wright 3-9, 3B
Davis 1-5
Duda 1-6, HR
Buck 1-4, HR
Turner 3-4, 2B
Valdespin 0-1

Lets Go Mets!

The early season struggles of Ike Davis have been well-documented. Following his second four-strikeout game of the season yesterday against the St. Louis Cardinals, he’s now hitting an awful .157/.245/.268 in 127 at-bats. That line is hard to look at, but it gets even harder when you realize it only includes four home runs, nine RBIs, and 45 strikeouts.

I’ve been in favor of sending Ike down to the minors for a couple weeks now because it’s been painful to watch how lost he is at the plate. I understand that in order for him to bust out of this slump, he has to play. While some think the best solution is for him to figure it out in the big leagues, I just can’t watch it anymore.

I’ve been watching a handful of Las Vegas 51s games these last two weeks, and I’ve been impressed with the performance of Josh Satin and Zach Lutz at the plate. The PCL may favor the hitters (as we’ve seen with the call-ups of Juan Lagares and Andrew Brown), but the approach throughout their at-bats has been sound. Satin is currently hitting .297/.412/.478 with five homers and 20 RBIs. More importantly, he’s collected 10 doubles in 37 games. I would love to see Satin get a chance instead of Ike right now, but it’s would be difficult since he’s not currently on the 40-man roster.

A guy who is on the 40-man that is hitting right now is Zach Lutz. The corner infielder is hitting .260/.340/.407 with four homers and 20 RBIs. Those numbers aren’t exactly eye-popping, but he’s currently riding a seven-game hitting streak. Over the last week, he’s hitting .444 with three homers, seven RBIs, and two doubles.

If the Mets were to make a move with Ike and actually send him down, Lutz should be the one getting a call. I really liked the call-up of Lagares, but was frustrated when he wasn’t inserted into the lineup consistently when he arrived. He was hitting .346/.378/.551 in Las Vegas prior to making his MLB debut, and I thought Terry Collins would try to ride that hot streak. If Lutz gets promoted, it would make sense for Collins to immediately insert him into the lineup to try and reap the benefits of his hot streak.

Collins said he’s committed to having Davis bat cleanup this weekend in Wrigley against the Chicago Cubs. If he doesn’t show any signs of life in his bat, a move needs to be made. Honestly, I don’t think the Mets will actually send Ike to the minors, but when he looks as lost as he has (especially yesterday), it’s tough getting excited when he walks to the plate in the middle of a rally.

Ankiel is a good outfielder, even though during his debut with the Mets, he dropped a ball. But, I will give it to him for going all out and diving for the ball, and the fact that he didn’t have his own glove because he had to have it shipped, so it wasn’t available for him to play with. So far he is hitless in two games with two strikeouts.

I know we don’t have anyone on the team that can be the power boost that we need right now, but it feels like Terry Collins hasn’t even given most of the guys like Lagares and Valdespin real time to audition.  Will Ankiel be the player that we need?  Will he turn his mediocre season around and turn back the clock to 2008 when he batted .285 with 25 HR and 71 RBI?

Even anything near those numbers will be what the doctor ordered for the Mets.  But his 37 strikeouts in 65 at bats will not help the Mets. Was there a better option for the Mets out there? Should they have given him a guaranteed major league deal off the bat?  I am not stating Ankiel won’t play hard for his new team, but just wondering if there might have been a better option. Of course, I hope Ankiel proves me wrong and plays a high a level.

I begin to wonder what this will mean for players like Mike Baxter and Jordany Valdespin. If they’ll end up relegated to pinch hitting duty, you can only have so many bench players related to left-handed pinch hitting on a team. Furthermore, if Baxter continues to share right field with Marlon Byrd, where does that leave JV1 specfically? Now I don’t have any inside information on that, but if Ankiel can put up the numbers that the Mets expect and play decent defense, then someone may just be expendable.

The offense has been struggling mightily as of late, not scoring more than five runs in a game since May 3rd, and a change in personnel with some fresh blood might shake a few things up. Unfortunately, it could just be a ruse where we will end up seeing more of the same. I don’t have a solution to our problem, and I’m not sure if Ankiel is the answer, but I definitely hope things don’t get any worse.

They criticize me to lower my self esteem but I’m going straight to the top. I was not born to lose.

Original Post 1:00 PM

“Valdespin knew that was coming. I don’t think it’s fair to say that since we didn’t hit one of the Pittsburgh hitters that he doesn’t have a friend. The notion that he was hung out to dry I think is a mistake. I’m not telling you he’s the most popular guy in the clubhouse, but I don’t think he was hung out to dry.”

That was the quote we heard from Mets GM Sandy Alderson when asked about the continuing Jordany Valdespin issue on Mike Francesa’s radio show yesterday.

Today, another new development has come to light according to Andy Martino of The Daily News.

Martino reported that Valdespin tried to “wiggle his way” out of pinch-hitting on Saturday against the Pirates. Valdespin allegedly sent word to trainer Ray Ramirez that he was “unavailable” to pinch-hit in Saturday’s blowout loss, according to Martino’s source who witnessed the dugout incident.

Much to the chagrin of Valdespin’s teammates, Ramirez sent word to Collins. Collins overruled the decision and sent Valdespin up anyway with body armor and an elbow protector.

Half of Alderson’s quote above now makes sense. Valdespin knew the inevitable plunking would occur if he stepped into the box so he tried to escape his fate. To say he wasn’t left out to dry seems like a stretch now with these new elements to the story.

This coverage is beginning to feel like the Casey Anthony trial, but the issue continues to be that Valdespin’s teammates and coaches decided to discipline him vicariously through the Pirates and not internally.

Valdespin has quirks, to put it mildly. He doesn’t play the game to the standards of conventional baseball in America, but this is clearly something he didn’t deserve given the circumstances.

We will be updating you with more information as it pertains to this story as it unfolds.

Thoughts from Joe D.

What have I been saying about this since day one?

Hung out to dry?

You betcha…

Big day on WFAN for the Mets – or at least during Mike Francesa’s time slot. After a 10 minute rant against the Mets to open the show, he had Sandy Alderson on for 15 minutes a few hours after that. There was a lot said by both of them – good and bad. Tonight you’ll get the rant, tomorrow you’ll get the interview along with my thoughts and summary.

This wasn’t easy to transcribe so I apologize now for any typos. Buckle up…

How bad must it be for the kid Matt Harvey? I mean they can’t score any runs for this kid. If the Mets could score just four rotten runs in a game this kid would be 8-0. When Harvey doesn’t pitch now, the Mets are so bad that it is embarrassing. They are so listless. They are so unwatchable. This is as bad as I have ever seen it. This is Craig Swan bad for these Mets.

I have a different take on the Valdespin thing. To me, the Valdespin thing speaks volumes about what the Mets have become. I don’t care if you don’t like Valdespin. He’s on your team. I don’t care if you detest Valdespin. He’s still wearing your uniform. And when the other team does that to him, and you guys act like you condoned it, and want to go out there and applaud it, that speaks volumes about what a bunch of losers you are.

To have a lowly team like the Pirates, who have sucked for 20 years, you’re telling me you’re gonna worry about how they feel about Valdespin hitting a homerun in a blowout game? How about worrying about winning a game instead of the Pirates’ feelings? How about not worrying about getting your nose rubbed in it everyday?

Valdespin – you don’t like him, it’s been very clear. I know Valdespin acts like a jerk sometimes. But you know what, he goes up to the plate with some gumption. He’s not an everyday player, but the Mets don’t have any everyday players in the outfield. I know Valdespin is different. And I know none of the other players like him. But that’s no excuse for a big guy like Buck to take his nose off when he hits him in the face with a pie after hitting a game winning grand slam. And if that wasn’t embarrassing enough now you treat your own guy as if he’s a leper on your own team and don’t even stand up for a guy wearing your uniform? Shame on the Mets.

I’m not sticking up for Valdespin, I know he’s half a jerk, but he goes up there and he tries. He goes up there and he tries to turn on a fastball late in games. He goes up there and comes up big sometimes and at least puts a little life into your stinking team. You want to jettison him, fine. Cut him. That way he can come back and hit a grand slam in a pinch hitting role against you guys and you can count on it.

You know what, he brings a little moxie to the team. But for the Mets to just stand there and say “oh my, what are the Pirates gonna think”, what the hell do you care what they think!

And then you watch him get hit by a pitcher wearing another uniform? Awful. To me that doesn’t say anything about Valdespin, that says all you need to know about the rest of these Mets. That just shows you what a sorry club the Mets have become. They are not just a joke – they are a bad joke. I thought they were trying to change the culture of this team around?

And another thing, I’ve been the biggest Ike Davis fan in the world, but enough is enough. That at-bat in the eighth inning last night after they pitched around and walked Wright – that at-bat was cryingly painful. It wasn’t even major league worthy. And the Mets crying and saying the ball hit the bag – oh gimme a break. What a joke.

Keep Wright, keep Harvey, keep 2-3 other guys, but other than that back up the truck and get rid of the other 20 guys because they are awful and we’ve seen enough of of them to last us a lifetime. They should be paying fans to watch this team because this is unbelievable and it has to change NOW. Except for the days that Harvey is on the mound, they are absolutely unwatchable.

I think Sandy Alderson is a smart guy and other than getting Wheeler and getting stuff for Dickey, all the other moves he’s made have been from hunger and I bet he has to admit that.

Another bullpen revamp and already half of them are gone, he signs this guy Marcum and the guy can’t even pitch five innings. He pushed and couldn’t stop talking about Cowgill and look at him now in the minor leagues. And who thought it was a good idea to have every hitter go to two strike counts every time  For what? They are going to end up leading the world in strikeouts? This team started out 7-4, but since then they are 7-16. Seven wins and sixteen losses… But worse than that, there’s no heart, there’s no life. there’s fire, there’s no toughness. It is really sad, and you know what? Enough’s enough!

* * * * * * * *

Now if you think that was hard to read, imagine how I felt having to write all of that for you?

Is he wrong about feeling bad for Harvey? Is he far off the mark on how bad this team is playing? Can you really say he was wrong about the Mets having a pity party for the Pirates because Valdespin rubbed their nose in it a little? You go ahead and discuss all of that in the comments. I’d love to read your thoughts.

I’ll have the Sandy Alderson interview up in the morning along with my thoughts.

Usually, it isn’t until after the All Star break, when we need to combine series to come up with 3 Ups and 3 Downs. This week was an exception with the Mets winning 2 out of 6 games against the Chicago White Sox & the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unless the Met offense wakes up real soon, we’re going to be in for a long season. Sorry to say, a first baseman batting .190 in the middle of May does not belong on the big club. Anyway here are this week’s 3 & 3.

Harvey Winless Twice: On Tuesday night Matt Harvey pitched a gem. It’s pretty safe to say we will probably never again see another nine inning, one-hit shutout, with the starter leaving the game getting a no decision. It was a darn shame the Met offense couldn’t squeeze out a run for Matt on Tuesday. On Sunday, Matt was once again very masterful. At this point it appears that young Mr. Harvey may be lone Met to make the All Star Game at Citi Field.

Robin Returned: One of my all time favorite Mets, Robin Ventura returned to Flushing. It was great to see Robin, who was one of the great Met leaders from 1999-2000. All the best to Ventura and the White Sox.

Baxter’s Big Hit: Mike Baxter is starting to remind me of Rusty Staub, with his pitch-hitting skills. It was Baxter who had the game-winning hit in Tuesday night’s game, driving in Marlon Byrd in the bottom of the tenth inning, and not totally wasting Harvey’s one hitter.

Offense Is AWOL: Where was the Mets offense this week? 28 strikeouts in the last two games alone? Outscored 21-7 in their last three losses to the Bucs? This team is in huge trouble here. Other than Wright, who are the established hitters? Buck and Murphy are in horrendous slumps, Ike Davis should be in Area 51, and not Flushing… I could give a rat’s behind what he did last season, he’s done squat this year and his team is losing. I don’t even want to get into the “who will replace him argument.”

Niese Not Nice: For the second start in a row Jon Niese looked horrible. Niese’s role this season is to be a front of the rotation pitcher and the Mets were banking on that. It hasn’t been happening so far in May. Niese needs to get his act together. They tell me the Met’s farm is ripe with good, young arms (I’ve heard this before). If the hype is to be believed, Niese may find himself as a back end guy.

Talk Of Change: Naturally, as the team struggles, people want to see Terry Collins replaced. In my 40 years of watching baseball, other than a handful of player-managers, I’ve never seen a manger, swing the bat in a game. I like Terry Collins, but this disaster isn’t on Terry. Does the GM even go to the games? Does he see the garbage he’s assembled? First base is a black hole. The outfield is a disaster, the bullpen has been better, but still stinks. I’ve said it before, Sandy needs to get some bats in here. He needs to stop the skid, and stop it now. Firing Terry isn’t the answer, whoever the new guy is will still be stuck with the same awful hand.

Old NL East rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, will be hosting the Mets for a four game set beginning tonight. The Cardinals are a true example of how an MLB franchise should be run. Sandy and the Wilpons should take notes. As usual, Lets Go Mets!!

All valid in the early Duda critique.

Now, unbelievably, he’s become too selective, too patient at the plate. No matter how hard I try, I don’t get this one.

Even Keith Hernandez, who has forgotten more about hitting than most of us will ever know, has been after Duda on his patience. Hernandez believes Duda should be more aggressive with runners in scoring position. Yesterday in that position, Duda worked deep into the count. And, as the at-bat continued and the talk was for him to be more aggressive, Duda lashed a 3-and-1 pitch through the right side of the infield for a RBI single in a perfect piece of hitting.

Until that swing, the conversation was about Duda’s growing patience, as if it was a fatal, fundamental flaw  instead of a strength.

Duda has a .417 on-base percentage, in large part to 21 walks. While the season is still young, his on-base percentage and OPS are the best of his career. For much of the spring he had more walks than strikeouts, but that has reversed.

However, what people are noting most are his six homers with only 11 RBI. Surely, with that much power, he should have more RBI. It it is a plausible argument, but not an all inclusive one.

Pitchers, wary of Duda’s power, have been exceedingly cautious and try to get him to chase. However, when he might have swung earlier in his career, he’s now waiting them out. Instead of giving away at-bats, he’s learned to take the walk, but that’s not a flaw.

Do you really want to see Duda be another Ike Davis, who gives away countless at-bats by flailing a pitches he has no chance of hitting?

The best thing for Duda would be to continue being patient and taking his walks. If somebody – are you listening Davis? – provided more protection behind him, then Duda might see more pitches, fastballs to be exact, in the zone.

Trust me on this one, the last thing you want is for Duda reverting to bad habits and chasing junk. The more walks he takes, the better he’ll become at recognizing pitches. He’ll waste fewer at-bats and eventually get his pitch to drive.

The expectations for Duda to walk less and swing more have been brought on by the Mets’ overall woeful offense.  The problem isn’t in Duda is taking too many pitches, but others in the batting order are not.

Updated on May 7

Zack Wheeler turned in his second straight strong outing with Triple-A Las Vegas, limiting Sacramento to three hits and a walk in six scoreless innings Sunday. Sandy Alderson has suggested Wheeler needs to turn in a string of positive starts before promotion consideration is made.

That said, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York speculates that Wheeler could make his MLB debut when the team will need an extra starter during a June 17-20 series at Turner Field. Because of Saturday’s postponement, the addition of the make-up date on June 18 will now that a five-game series.

“That likely would come after the Super 2 deadline, meaning Wheeler would miss an extra year of arbitration eligibility,” writes Rubin. “It probably would be a sweet moment for him, too, since he grew up in Dallas, Ga., outside Atlanta. Of course, this is all speculation.”

Original Post May 6, 2013

Top Mets pitching prospect Zack Wheeler followed up a solid start last week with an even better one today as the Las Vegas 51s beat the Sacramento River Cats 6-2.

Wheeler tossed six scoreless innings and allowed just three hits and a walk while striking out four. What stood out was that he tossed 91 pitches (55 strikes, 36 balls) and left the game looking he had plenty left in the tank.

He picks up his second win of the season and while he had command issues through the first two innings (15 strikes, 11 balls, walk), he got into a groove and dominated the rest of the way.

That’s two good starts in a row for Wheeler who made an adjustment to his delivery before his last start and so far things have turned around since a rocky start to the season.

Thoughts From Satish R. 

Wow! This is exactly what I wanted to see from Zack. The minor leagues are a place where you work on the kinks in your game – including things like mechanics. If the adjustment Wheeler made to his rotation before last week’s start was the big difference between a great performance and a bad one, then superb catch by the staff. He probably had another inning in him if they wanted to push it, but I’m alright with Backman pulling him so the young Wheeler stays in high confidence mode.

I was a little worried with how he started this game and thought we were headed towards a shaky performance, but Wheeler turned it around quickly and stood his ground. He was the aggressor on the mound and looked like a pitcher who finally trusted his pitches – at least his dominant fastball. The Wheeler watch is definitely on now… As everyone has been saying all season long, if Zack Wheeler strings together a couple of good starts in a row, it will be really interesting to see what the Mets brass does with him.

I still want to see more from the young man, but I have been very impressed with these last two starts.

Thoughts From Mitch Petanick

I will probably be in the minority when saying I wasn’t blown away by Wheeler’s start. On paper, the start was fantastic — no runs allowed while giving up three hits and one walk. It’s exactly what you want to hear about your prized prospect. However, I saw some things in the game that caused me to raise an eyebrow.

Let me preface what I am about to say with letting you know I only watched the first four innings of the game today. With that being said, I felt that Wheeler was not really throwing his off speed pitches for strikes, especially his breaking balls. The batters seemed to figure out that he was not throwing them for strikes, so they didn’t chase them out of the zone very often, and were sitting on the fastball (this is probably why Wheeler only had four strikeouts instead his usual seven or eight). That usually spells trouble for a pitcher, unless you are throwing 97 mph. Wheeler’s fastball was good enough to get the hitters out today, but that won’t always be the case.

The 97 mph fastball will not be enough to get hitters out at the major league level alone. He will have to throw the off speed pitches for strikes consistently. I didn’t see that enough today, although it was definitely another step in the right direction for Wheeler.

Updating Adam Rubin’s report this past weekend, which you can read about below, Mets GM Sandy Alderson spoke to the Daily News and said the following:

“It’s no secret Jordany has had a slightly different approach to some things, there is a certain level of tolerance that we have. I hope he doesn’t exceed that level.”

As I’ve been alluding to for months now, my conspiracy theories and pursuit of this so-called “non-story” wages on.

Alderson is hoping that Valdespin continues to mature, but clearly he is as close to “persona non grata” as you can get despite his enormous potential and upside.

“I am hoping he will continue to mature,” Alderson said. “He has, I think, made progress. Hope he continues to do so on that front.”

I just call them the way I see them.

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, just someone who is very good at reading between the lines.

So let’s talk about this non-story some more, shall we?

Well actually, now it is a story… Which negates about three-quarters of the comments telling me I was barking up the wrong tree …

Insights > Willful Blindness

Wipon = Front Office = SNY = Wilpon

It’s the Circle of Life, baby…

Original Post May 4, 2013

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York reported that Jordany Valdespin was asked to attend early batting practice at Turner Field yesterday, but opted to not participate.

Rubin said that Valdespin was told by a coach he did not have to participate in the batting practice session, so he simply didn’t show up which in turn annoyed the team and coaching staff.

“Valdespin is exciting,” Terry Collins said after last night’s game. “He plays with a lot of excitement, a lot of enthusiasm, especially when it’s crunch time. You know you’re going to get things that you don’t expect sometimes.”

Last night, Valdespin came in as a pinch-hitter and ignited the rally that would win the game and he scored the winning run.

Of course, we don’t know how many other players didn’t show up for the “voluntary” early batting practice, but this is Valdespin and for some reason any chance they get to make him look bad always finds its way out somehow.

Maybe they should try hitting him in the face with a sledgehammer next time instead of a pie. Maybe that will fix him.

The folks at MetsBlog assess the situation as follows:

I understand the team’s frustration with Valdespin’s quirks and behavior as well – in the end, this is a workplace for the players, not a summer camp, and he has created a perception of immaturity for himself which he has to work hard to shed. If Valdespin’s superiors request he attend a batting practice session to get some extra work in, he should take the hint and just go. In the end, this isn’t a huge deal so much as it’s another reminder of who Valdespin is. Perhaps if he conformed to the culture and practices of the team consistently, he would reap the rewards of his performances and talents and be respected a little more as well.

I have a problem with that. Valdespin shouldn’t have to conform to any cultural guidelines to gain his respect. His play alone is worthy of respect. In that regard he should be getting more respect than anyone else on the team with four of the team’s wins directly attributed to him.

If the Mets coaches wanted him at early batting practice, then they should have simply told him that. Running to the press and calling him out? Typical Mets under this current regime and ownership.

How about the Mets conform to the US Constitution and afford Valdespin his rights to live his life the way he sees fit as long as he’s not breaking any laws? Voluntary means just that, voluntary.

Voluntary visits to Walter Reed Hospital, voluntarily not reporting early enough to Spring Training, not participating in a voluntary batting practice… Honestly, who created those dramas, the players or the Mets?

The sad part here is that many fans draw their conclusions from the messages and vibes that the Wilpon owned SNY cable and blog network communicate.

It led to a comment like this from one prominent blogger who wrote last week:

Happy that the Mets had won, although it a homer was by my 25th favorite Met, I rolled over, hit off and drifted off to dreams of updating this post in the morning.

What kind of message is that?

Or how about this one from Mack (I’m not a Met fan) from Mack’s Mets:

I stopped following him (Jordany Valdespin) both on Twitter and Facebook a while back because I just got sick and tired of all the pictures of himself that he kept posting. This is one sick conceited dude…The dude is just a thug and a jerk. Dump him.

Needs to conform to culture? My 25th favorite Met? A thug? A jerk? A sick, conceited dude?

Who do you think is creating these misconceptions? The player, the team or their paid messengers?

Maybe it’s a combination of all three, but is this the kind of PR a team who needs an emergency image transplant needs right now?

They call me negative because I bitch whenever the team that I love loses, and yet you see comments like this flying under, over, and through the damn radar screen and nobody says a word.

I’m pretty certain that I’ll get called out for speaking my piece on this for sure… There goes Joe D. again – getting all negative and spouting truths… The nerve of that guy…

Kevin Plawecki is leading the South Atlantic League in hitting.

Welcome to the second edition of Who’s Hot, Who’s Not. This week was a very intriguing one for followers of the Mets minor league system. We saw the rise of two top pitching prospects, and the fall of one who had been absolutely dominant. We also saw Kevin Plawecki continue to show why the Mets made him a first-round pick last year. He leads off our Hot List…

Who’s Hot

•   Kevin Plawecki, C (SAV): Plawecki continues to rake and prove that he is too advanced for the South Atlantic League. In a stadium  in which hits are hard to come by, Plawecki has hit the cover off the ball, and put up very good power numbers. This week, he hit .438 with a .500 On-Base Percentage and slugged .750. He is currently leading the league in average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging, doubles, and total bases.
• Noah Syndergaard, RHP (STL): After giving up seven runs against Fort Myers on April 18, Syndergaard has been lights out, tossing three straight terrific outings. In his two starts this week, he allowed just two runs (one earned) on 13 hits in 13 innings. Even more impressive, he struck out 12 and walked just three.
• Zack Wheeler, RHP (LAV): Wheeler, after some awful early-season struggles, has bounced back well. This week, he allowed one run on eight hits over 12.2 innings, while walking just two batters. He has also been throwing more strikes, which is the key to him reaching the majors. Wheeler has started using his breaking ball again, which may be the reason he has been able to put it back together on the mound.

Honorable Mention: Travis Taijeron, OF (STL): Taijeron was on fire this week, hitting six doubles an batting .500 and getting on base in well over 50% of his plate appearances. Taijeron struggled in the second half, so it’s great to see him be able to put it back together again.

Who’s Not

• Rafael Montero, RHP (BIN): Montero was on fire last week, making last week’s Hot List. This week, however, was a completely different story for Montero. In one start, he tossed 6.2 innings but allowed ten runs (seven of them earned) on ten hits against Erie. That came after five straight starts of alloweing two runs or less to start the season.
• Jacob deGrom, RHP (BIN): DeGrom had one so-so start and one bad start this week for Binghamton. In his first against Akron, he allowed five runs on seven hits (including two home runs) against Akron. In the second, he gave up three in six innings. However, for the entire week, he was only able to strike out three batters in 11.1 innings. It’s only two starts, but deGrom averaged almost eight strikeouts per nine innings last season.
• Brian Bixler, SS (LAV): Bixler, who signed as a minor league free agent this offseason, had a very tough week at the plate, batting .150/.190/.150 with no extra-base hits and five strikeouts in 20 at-bats.

Mets Starting Lineup

1. SS: Ruben Tejada
2. 2B: Daniel Murphy
3. 3B: David Wright
4. C: John Buck
5. 1B: Justin Turner
6. LF: Lucas Duda
7. CF: Marlon Byrd
8. RF: Andrew Brown
9. SP: Shaun Marcum

Game Notes

Collin Cowgill was demoted to Triple-A Las Vegas to clear the roster spot for the promotion of fellow outfielder Andrew Brown. Cowgill, 26, hit .157 (8-for-51) with two homers and eight RBIs with the Mets and was hitless in his final 13 at-bats.

Andrew Brown, 28, is now with the team after a solid month in Las vegas where he hit .367 (36-for-98) with two homers and 27 RBIs in 25 games with the 51s. Brown had an 11-game hitting streak and was leading the Pacific Coast League with 13 doubles.

Pedro Feliciano is nearing a return to the Mets bullpen. Last night in Ft. Myers, he allowed a walk and a hit in a scoreless inning of relief in St. Lucie’s 3-2 loss to the Miracle. Feliciano has allowed three hits and two walks, with four strikeouts, in four innings of work over four games with Advanced-A St. Lucie.

Game Preview

It’s May and the Mets will finally meet the Braves for the first time in 2013. The Mets are fresh off of a win in Miami where they snapped a 6 game losing streak thanks to some offense and a bullpen that didn’t completely implode. The Mets will also be joined up with Andrew Brown who is hitting well in Vegas and could fill in at the OF and occasionally at first base. Anyway, tonight’s game features Shaun Marcum pitted against Mike Minor.

Marcum had a rocky start in his 2013 debut allowing 3 ER in 4.0 innings of work (right before the bullpen just fell apart). Then, the baseball gods decided to turn on Shaun as 1.2 innings against the Marlins and would give up the winning run in the 15th inning. And just like that, 5.2 innings into the season, he is 0-2. He pitched one game against Atlanta last year and he allowed only 3 hits and 2 runs over 7 innings of work. He will be facing a much different Atlanta lineup that now boasts BJ Upton (although currently struggling) and Justin Upton (who is hitting the ball way out of the park). The Braves have the following numbers on Marcum:

BJ Upton 6-21, 2 2B
Johnson 1-12
Schafer 3-9, 2B
Uggla 1-8
Justin Upton 2-8
Freeman 1-5

The Mets bats hope to replicate their last game and not their previous 6 before that tonight against Mike Minor who is 2-2 on the season over 31.2 innings and 5 starts with a 3.13 ERA. He has went from spectacular, allowing 2 runs over his first 19 innings to not so good allowing 9 ER over 12.2 innings (with his last start being the real dagger at 6.2 IP, 6 ER). In two starts against the Mets last year he allowed 9 hits and 6 ER over 11.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Wright 2-11, 2 2B
Tejada 4-13, 2B
Buck 0-8, 3 BB
Turner 3-7
Byrd 4-8, 2B
Duda 3-8, 2B
Davis 0-4, 3 K
Murphy 2-5, 2 2B
Gee 2-2 (I know he’s a starter and he’s not starting tonight but whatever sorry not sorry)

Let’s Go Mets!

Updated on May 3 at 2:40 PM

The Mets have selected the contract of OF Andrew Brown from Triple-A Las Vegas and added him to the 40 man roster, the team announced.

The 28-year old was batting a sizzling .367/.440/.622 to go along with 13 doubles, three triples, and two home runs. He was leading the team in several different offensive categories including 27 RBI and 61 total bases.

To make room for him, the team optioned Collin Cowgill to Triple-A which is exactly what I figured would happen.

Cowgill batted just .157 with a .467 OPS in 51 at-bats after being named the Mets everyday center fielder on Opening Day. Maybe he’ll have better luck at the Black Jack tables.

Original Post May 2, 2013

According to what a source told Adam Rubin, the Mets will be promoting right-handed hitting outfielder Andrew Brown from Triple-A Las Vegas, where Brown was tearing it up at the plate.

Rubin says that Brown will be on hand for tonight’s game against the Braves in Atlanta.

Ironically, in our Mets Minors Report yesterday morning we wrote:

Andrew Brown went 3-for-5 last night with a home run, double and 3 RBI as he continued his “Seriously, call me up to the MLB team” tour.

The 28-year old was batting a sizzling .367/.440/.622 to go along with 13 doubles, three triples, and two home runs. He was leading the team in several different offensive categories including 27 RBI and 61 total bases.

They will have to make room for him on the 40 man roster and I’m betting Collin Cowgill will get the boot as I’ve been suggesting the past week and a half.

Brown probably won’t set the world on fire, but he’ll certainly be an upgrade over Cowgill and Mike Baxter. As one of our readers wrote yesterday, he has a chance to do what Scott Hairston did for us last season.

One thing to note is that Josh Satin took over for Andrew Brown in the outfield during last night’s game for the Las Vegas 51s. He’s another player the Mets could use right now and his ability to play first base, third base and outfield could pave the way for another roster move in the very near future.

Few do it well, but the Mets’ Jordany Valdespin has a knack for coming through with power. His three-run homer Wednesday was his sixth in two years with the Mets. He is indeed, a unique weapon.

“That’s what he does,’’ manager Terry Collins said, conveniently forgetting that’s what Valdespin does because he’s rarely given opportunity to do anything else. “For some reason he loves to come off the bench. Everybody likes to play, but he loves to come off the bench when the pressure is on, the heat is on.’’Sure, Valdespin might relish batting in the clutch, but it’s a misnomer to think that’s all he wants to do. However, as tempting as it is for Collins to want to save him for that spot, one that might not present itself for days.

Given the dismal state of the Mets’ offense, and futility of using six leadoff hitters in 25 games, Valdespin must stay at the top of the order playing center field until he proves he can’t handle the role. His temperament and demeanor sometimes more represent a NBA diva, but that’s peripheral stuff that should be back-burnered until it proves to be a detriment to the team.

Collins tried to create the ideal image for Valdespin yesterday, but came woefully short in selling his position.

“One of those things with those bench players like that, you create the scene for them,’’ Collins said. “If he’s hitting third, he doesn’t come up in that situation. If he’s hitting first, he doesn’t come up there. All of a sudden, here comes the eighth hitter in a big situation. Here he is. Now you can put him in.’’

Is that a load of garbage, or what? That’s manager-speak for what, I really don’t know.

While the clutch spot of the order might not surface until late in the game, had Valdespin started he might have had two or three chances to produce, and perhaps break open the game to where there is no clutch spot. Ever think of that, Terry?

Collins did say Valdespin sometimes changes his approach to where he’s too aggressive and goes outside himself when he plays as a starter. If that is the case, then spare us the other excuses and have him work on that part of his approach.

Collins wants it both ways and that can’t be. The problem is the Mets aren’t talented enough to where they can afford the luxury of a designated pinch-hitter. They have too many holes in their order and outfield to keep Valdespin in that role.

He needs to play, if for no other reason, to find out he can’t.

Please follow me on Twitter @jdelcos

The study took a considerable sampling of data and integrated a comprehensive review of previous research. It focussed on whether or not replacement managers were able to generate increased output from individual players.

I’d read some reviews of the study prior to actually reading the study itself (waiting for adobe to update), and most of the secondary commentary seemed to take the study’s abstract conclusions and run with them without bothering to look into the text, which appeared, (at least to this reader) to be speckled with disclaimers and reservations. To be fair, numerous readers took issue with the fact that by looking strictly at individual performance the study neglected the ultimate benchmark — winning — which is potentially problematic because winning and individual performance don’t always correlate. By looking strictly at performance, however, you eliminate strength of schedule as a factor, not to mention the impact of injuries, trades, changes in batting order and so on.

The author estimated the impact of managers on player performance using a sample of major-league baseball players from 1980 to 2009, available from Baseball-Databank.org. He estimated Equation 1 using the Baltagi and Wu (1999) random-effects method, which corrects for detected first-order serial correlation.

(1) Performanceiy = γ Manageriy+ β1 League Performancey + β2 Career Performancei + β3 Ageiy + β4 Ageiy2 + θ Parkiy + νi+ εiy

Performance is the individual performance of player i in year y. Manager is a vector of individual manager dummy variables. For hitters, performance is measured using on-base-plus-slugging (OPS), which is a simple metric for measuring how effective a hitter is at producing runs. For pitchers, performance is measured using earned run average (ERA). The coefficients for the dummy variables in vector γ should reflect the impact that individual managers have on player output. League Performance is the league average OPS for hitters and league average ERA for pitchers. The league average controls for fluctuations in run scoring in the leagues may cause deviations in performance across leagues and over time. Career Performance measures the quality of the observed players by averaging the performance of each player over his entire career, which normally spans several managers.

Of the 134 managers in the sample, the estimates for 25 managers are statistically significant at the ten-percent level for hitters. 21 managers are associated with improvement and four managers are associated with a decline. For pitchers, the estimates for 24 managers are statistically significant at the ten-percent level. 15 managers are associated with player improvement and nine managers are associated with a performance decline. Five managers are associated with improvement and decline for both groups; however, in all cases, the managers are associated with the opposite effect for the two groups of players. Thus, no manager is associated with improving performance for both offense and defense.
The results indicate that if managers have some influence on player performance, the impact is small and difficult to identify.

Baseball Between the Numbers, analyst James Click also tried to tease some signs of managerial impact out of statistical record but came up empty. After examining the measurable effect of in-game strategies (bunting, stolen bases, intentional walks), wins and losses relative to run differential, playing time distribution, in-game substitutions (pinch-hitters, relief pitchers, and defensive replacements), and direct impact on player performance (coaching), Click was unable to find evidence of a repeatable skill in any one of those five areas for any of the 456 managers he studied. That is to say that, much like clutch hitting, individual performances varied so much from season to season that the results appeared to be as much the result of chance as anything else.

There was also the 2006 study by James Cliff in which he stated:

“Only six times in thirty-three years has any manager used sacrifice attempts, stolen base attempts, and intentional walks to increase his team’s win expectation over an entire season. Even the best managers cost their team more than a game per season by employing these tactics. At worst they can cost a team three games per season.”

Finally, Chris Jaffe wrote a definitive and comprehensive analysis of Manager competency and effect in his book, Evaluating Baseball’s Managers. A History and Analysis of Performance in the Major Leagues, 1876-2008. (highly recommended). In it he more or less shows that good managers don’t have much of an effect, and even bad managers don’t do as much harm as you might think.

Independent of whatever considerable support the argument that managers don’t matter may have, I still have my reservations. In the first study above, OPS doesn’t correlate with winning as much as several other statistics, namely runs scored, but even more troublesome is one very problematic variable – the unearned run.

Unearned runs are not like other runs, they are the neglected stepchildren of baseball, they are the runt of the litter that nobody wants, they are the ugly babies that the Spartans would throw off a cliff. The problem with unearned runs is that outside of an error here or there, no one is truly accountable for them. Defensive metrics being what they are, a study that looks at changes in offensive output and ERA doesn’t control for runs that cross the plate that are unearned. The unearned run can be a death knell in the late innings. It can also be an indication that defensive alignment isn’t what it should be, fundamental defensive practices may not be in place, and players may simply not be well coached.

Defense appeared to be lumped together as one of many variables affecting ERA. Compounding this problem is the fact that the unearned run may be a direct result of poor defense. This omission renders  an entire competitive dimension (team defense) inconsequential, when any fan can tell you it is not.

You can make a strong argument that while a player can rise to the major leagues on a given set of abilities such as hitting and throwing, defense, perhaps more so than any other aspect of the game, may be a reflection of focus, preparation, and most importantly (for purposes of this argument), effort … These traits are inexorably linked to good coaching. Bear in mind it was defense (among other things) that let the Mets down in the late innings of the series vs. the Marlins. Defense may in fact be the greatest litmus for a manager’s overall effectiveness, but in the end how do you measure a leader’s ability to get his players to “run through walls” for him?

There are countless anecdotal narratives that run contrary to the claim that managers don’t matter — there have been numerous cases where a change has resulted in a dramatic turn-around. Buck Schowalter of the Orioles as recently as 2011 changed his team’s fortunes almost upon his arrival. Could it be that given a manager’s already marginal impact on the field of play (as shown in multiple studies) it takes a really tremendous manager to actually effect a turn-around? Well, if this is true, and it may be, it would undermine the broader argument that manager’s don’t make much of a difference no matter how good (or bad) they may be because it would imply that while most managers are mediocre (which is why broad based studies show a negligible effect) the exceptional ones do make a difference.

In the end we are left with the possibility that a manager’s effect may not be measurable by any conventional analysis. How do you measure inspiration? How do you quantify cohesion? How do you control for that little bit of effort that could be the difference between a run saved and another loss?

As much as Bill James and Nate Silver and others have tried to quantify managerial performance, it is an elusive and ethereal component of the game that is far too complex to pin down with metrics.

I’ve always gotten the sense that Sandy Alderson ascribes to the premise that managers don’t really make much of a difference. Even great managers after all make about as much as a middle reliever. In a baseball landscape where value in wins has become a catchphrase, the numbers people will tell you that the difference between a truly extraordinary manager like a Herzog or a Cox or a Hodges, and an Art Howe is maybe 3 to 5 wins over the course of a season, if that …

My contention nevertheless resides primarily in all those intangible inspirational and interpersonal aspects of the game that numbers can’t speak to, warm fuzzies such as determination, camaraderie, and above all, hope. There is nothing like giving a band of dejected players immersed in patterns of learned helplessness the gift of believing in themselves and in each other. How do you measure that? And yes, that sounds like something only a select few exceptional leaders would be able to pull off.

It’s always been a glaring paradox to me how an organization that in practice may marginalize the role of the manager, will, with the same breath trumpet the importunate significance of a good development program. Your manager, and your development program, are in practice part of the same operational system. In the end, having seen exceptional coaches take rag tag assemblages of high school kids and transform them into champions, I can’t in good conscience ascribe to the notion that coaches, managers, and leaders, don’t play a role in that effort. They matter, but they matter in ways that relate more to the spirit than they do to numbers on the field.

As Vince Lombardi once said:

“The spirit, the will to win and the will to excel – these are the things that endure and these are the qualities that are so much more important than any of the events that occasion them.”

It was just three measly years ago that a budding young power-hitting first basemen looked nervously into the camera as Chris Carlin interviewed him live before millions of viewers late one Spring Training evening in a local pub. As they concluded, Carlin refers to him as “The future of the New York Mets, Ike Davis.”, which gets a rousing cheer from the Mets fans in the restaurant. He smiles–uncomfortably–at the applause as they cut back to studio.

It was just three years ago that the Jacobs-Tatis platoon at first was failing, and that same budding young power-hitting first baseman was making some noise down  in Buffalo, ultimately leading to a phone call and a subsequent plane ride into LaGuardia Airport.

It was barely three years ago that fans laid witness to the next great Met blossoming before their eyes. It was three years ago he dove into dugouts, cranked walk-off homers into the Pepsi Porch and excited a downtrodden fanbase in a way not seen since the pennant race of 2006.

Now three years later, Davis has brought a whole new meaning to “Pure Chaos”, and not in a good way.  He is completely lost at the plate, has made solid contact on only a fraction of his mere 13 hits this season (the majority of which went over the fence), and at this point is playing himself out of a job.

Ike has stated that he has a tendency to start off the year slow and it takes time for him to warm up, however if his batting doesn’t come to a boil soon, the Mets have a ready-made first baseman waiting in the wings–or at least in left field–.

Duda taking over first is not out of the realm of possibilities. Prior to d’Arnaud’s injury Terry Collins already proposed the idea of sliding John Buck over to first when the Mets top-hitting prospect eventually got the call. If someone who has yet to play first in their professional career had been on the table to at least split time at first with Davis, why wouldn’t Duda, someone who played more first base than left field in the minors, be in the fold as well?

Collins said last week that there are no plans to us Duda at first, however if Davis continued to swing-and-miss, things could change in a hurry.

Lucas Duda is not an outfielder, no matter how hard the Mets try to force it on him. He is a first base/ designated hitter type of player. Sure he doesn’t have the defensive prowess of Davis, however Davis hasn’t exactly been the same out on the diamond since his rookie campaign.

This is not to say Duda or anyone else is going to take Ike’s job in 2013, however when this offseason comes and goes, I am not confident that Ike Davis will be a New York Met come Opening Day 2014. He is set to make $7-8 million in arbitration next year, and that could be too rich for the shallow pockets of the Alderson regime.

He has been through major slumps in the minors, his first season and in 2012 and was able to turn himself around. When it comes down to it however, the Amazin’s can’t afford to have their first baseman bat under the Mendoza line through one half of the season, then go on a tear post-All Star Break in the next.

That will not be seen as worth the money for Sandy Alderson and the Mets. This has become a make-or-break year for Isaac Benjamin Davis, and if he doesn’t turn it around soon, things might get a whole lot more “chaotic” for the former-budding young star.

Wright celebrates after one of his two home runs

DAVID WRIGHT, 3B

MMO PLAYER OF THE WEEK

David Wright finally took flight for the 2013 season this past week, as he lifted off with two home runs in Colorado. The Mets captain had been hitting well to start the year, but was not producing much in the way of power until he entered the thin Colorado air.

Wright batted .350/.519/.850, with two triples, two home runs, and five RBI as he helped lead the Mets offensive attack. He didn’t just drive in runs, as he scored five runs himself, accounting for a total of 10 runs during the week.

Wright got on base a total of 14 times in his 27 plate appearances, with seven hits and seven walks, which equated to his .519 OBP. Another promising sign that jumped out at me the most, was the fact that he did not have one strikeout all week. When David is locked in, he makes steady contact. With some of the strikeout issues he has had in recent years, it was nice to see him square the ball up and have such a good eye at the plate.

I am excited to see Wright get off to a good start this season. Sometimes players sign a big contract and struggle to live up to it, but that does not appear to be the case with the Mets third baseman.

The 30-year-old has just 10 strikeouts in 76 at-bats, and has walked 15 times in 17 games. Wright already has 14 RBI, and may be on his way to his sixth 100 RBI season. As the Mets team captain, Wright will look to be a rock in the three-hole and lead by example for his young teammates.

Honorable Mentions

Matt Harvey

Harvey matched up against Stephen Strasburg on Friday, and was the better pitcher in the highly anticipated pitching duel. The big righty went seven innings, gave up just four hits and one earned run, while striking out seven in his victory over the Nationals and Strasburg. Harvey was so impressive, chants of “Harvey’s better!” from the Mets faithful filled the air at Citi Field. Harvey has won all four of his starts as he continues his domination to begin the 2013 season.

Lucas Duda

Duda flexed his muscles this week cranking two more home runs, giving him five on the season. Duda continued to get on base at a high rate, walking six more times, and now owns a 1:1 (15 K, 15 BB) strikeout-to-walk ratio for the year. Duda batted .308/.526/.769 for the week.

Player Of The Week Scoreboard

W1. John Buck - 1

W2. Matt Harvey - 1

W3. David Wright – 1

Hours after being named MMO Player of the Week, Mets right-hander Matt Harvey was named the National League Player of the Week this afternoon by MLB.

Harvey fashioned a 2-0 record and 1.20 ERA last week, and took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Twins on Saturday. Through three starts this season, the 24-year-old has yielded only six hits in 22 innings, while striking out 25 and walking only six. He is the first pitcher since 1900 to win each of his first three starts of a season with at least that many strikeouts and that few hits allowed, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

In his first outing last week, Harvey outdueled Phillies veteran Roy Halladay, as the youngster limited Philadelphia to one run on three hits in seven innings. Five days later, Harvey held Minnesota to one run on two hits in eight frames.

Harvey is the first Mets pitcher to earn NL Player of the Week honors since Johan Santana accomplished the feat on June 3, 2012, two days after the southpaw tossed the first no-hitter in franchise history.

Original Post at 12:00 PM

MATT HARVEY, RHP

MMO PLAYER OF THE WEEK

Is anybody else beginning to think we might have something really special in Matt Harvey? I think Dwight Gooden put it best, when he said in a tweet that the hurler’s nickname should be Matt “The Real Deal” Harvey. I think that is an awesome nickname, and I hope it sticks. Gooden wasn’t the only one to praise the big righty recently. Tampa Bay Rays ace David Price recently tweeted that “Matt Harvey is my new favorite pitcher outside of current and former teammates!! He’s nasty.”

The 24-year-old made my choice for MMO POTW an easy one, as he had one of the most dominating weeks for a Mets pitcher in recent memory. Harvey fired 15 innings over his two starts, including taking a no-hit bid into the seventh inning against the Minnesota Twins on Saturday. Over his 15 innings of work, he mowed down 15 batters, gave up just four hits, and had an ERA of 1.20 with a record of 2-0.

With Harvey dominating his opponents the way he has through his first three starts, here are some interesting stats.

• Harvey is the first Mets pitcher to begin a season allowing no more than one run in any of his first three starts since Al Leiter in 2004.
• According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Harvey is the first pitcher in modern major league history (since 1900) to win each of his first three starts of a season, with at least 25 strikeouts and six or fewer hits allowed over those three games.
• Joe D. noted on Saturday, that he is only the third pitcher since the end of World War II to open a season with three straight starts of seven-plus innings and three or fewer hits allowed, joining Nolan Ryan and Jim Rooker as the only other pitchers to perform that feat, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Prior to Gooden’s tweet anointing Harvey “The Real Deal, I had been using the same words to describe his performances, and obviously I wasn’t alone. I even asked a couple of fellow MMO writers if they were getting goose bumps watching this kid pitch as I was. The last time I remember being this excited about a player the Mets brought up, was when Jose Reyes and David Wright made their debuts.

It’s been a long time coming for Mets fans to feast their eyes on a pitcher of Matt Harvey‘s potential and skill set. He has shown himself to be a dominating power pitcher, who is not afraid to pitch inside. The kid is a homegrown player who has all the makings of being the next Mets ace, something Mets fans have long been asking for.

Honorable Mention

The legend of John Buck continues to grow in Flushing, and if it wasn’t for the dominating performance of Harvey, would have been selected for a second consecutive MMO Player Of The Week honor. The Mets backstop has virtually carried the Mets on his back offensively for the first two weeks of the season. The pitchers love throwing to him, the hitters love getting on in front of him and the fans are getting to watch a performance of historic proportions.

Buck batted just .238/.238/.810 during his second week as a Met, but when he made contact, he crushed the ball.  The veteran hit a home run in four consecutive games (April 8-12), a feat that had not been done since David Wright did it in 2007. Richard Hidalgo holds the Mets franchise record with a home run in five consecutive games in July of 2004. Buck ended the week with four home runs, drove in 10 runs and scored five, but failed to draw a walk.

As Joe D. pointed out in his post on Saturday, Buck has entered rarefied air with his staggering RBI totals to start the season.

Buck hit six home runs through the first 10 games of the season, which is the second-most in team history behind Dave Kingman‘s seven home runs through 10 games in 1976. He did not hit his sixth home run of the season last year until June 24 (52 games) and did not drive in his 19th run of the season until June 27 (55 games). The veterans six home runs are more than all of the Mets catchers combined during the 2012 season.

Other Noteworthy Players

Daniel Murphy

David Wright

Murphy had a great week batting .500/.522/.750 with five RBI and five doubles. He seems to have settled nicely into the two hole, and should continue to see good pitches in front of David Wright. The captain had a .286/.348/.476 slash line, with six RBI, two doubles and a triple. It was a nice improvement in the run production department, as he had only had one extra base hit and three RBI during the first week. The Mets have been getting great production from Buck, but they need Wright to start to drive the ball, as he has yet to hit a home run yet this season.

Player Of The Week Scoreboard

T1. John Buck – 1

T1. Matt Harvey – 1