Update: According to Scott Merkin of MLB.com, if the White Sox cut payroll as expected, it’s likely that either John Danks or Mark Buehrle will not return in 2012.

Looking at the free agent market for starting pitchers can be quite depressing. As of this writing it’s not known whether C.C. Sabathia will be a free agent. The next best free agent pitcher after C.C. assuming he opts-out is C.J. Wilson of the Texas Rangers and it’s widely believed Wilson will command a hefty price. Wilson is a good pitcher, but I don’t think he’s worth the money he’s going to command on the open market. I also think his big mouth and his troubles in high pressure situations make him a pitcher the Mets need to avoid. I also think that Nolan Ryan who reportedly loves Wilson will spend the money to keep him.

So with that in mind I looked at the free agent pool and one pitcher I like that will be available is Mark Buehrle.  Now the Mets need a true ace but we’re not getting that this off season so we have to look elsewhere and Buehrle would be a nice pickup. Looking at Buehrle’s numbers they don’t set the world particularly on fire but they still do impress. Buehrle since 2000 has averaged 223 innings pitched per year. Since 2001 Buehrle has averaged 15 wins per season. Buehrle has pitched a no hitter and a perfect game in his career not to mention winning two gold gloves later in his career. Most importantly Buehrle does not have much of an injury history and I believe in the National League he can win 15-18 games.

Adding Buehrle also adds a much needed veteran arm for this rotation. We all know Santana expects only the best from himself and coming back from an injury that cost him the entire 2011 season he will be putting more pressure than usual on himself to perform like the Santana of old. I think having a veteran who is a proven winner throughout his career in the rotation can only help lessen some of the pressure that will be placed on Johan by himself. This can only help strengthen the rotation.

Buehrle will be a smart option for this team. He has big market experience as he has pitched in Chicago his entire career. Buehrle doesn’t have the greatest post season numbers but does have a World Series ring. I believe a 3 year deal would be wise to offer Buehrle. Perhaps you throw in a team option for a 4th year, though I think that is a bad idea, I rather give him some incentives to make him more money throughout the 3 years. A rotation of Santana, Niese, Buehrle, Dickey and Pelfrey and/or Gee is not the prettiest and obviously can’t compete with the Phillies, but it’s much better than what the Mets put out this past season.

This is not a post bashing Johan Santana.  I know early on in the 2010 season I wrote that Santana was done and I admit I was wrong.  Santana rebounded nicely and was having a great 2nd half until being sidelined with another injury that would for the 3rd consecutive year require surgery.  This surgery is now the 3rd surgery Santana has had on his pitching arm.  Santana is expected to miss most if not all of next year which means that he won’t return until 2012.  In 2012 Santana will be 33 years old. It’s time to start looking for a new Ace of the staff.  Also with this type of injury to a pitcher the pitcher has not returned to pitch again.  Look at Mark Prior and Wang as examples.  Prior hasn’t pitched since having this surgery in 2006 and Wang hasn’t pitched since having surgery last year.

Now hopefully Santana will be able to recover and be a good number 2 pitcher to our ACE. Unfortunately the Mets do not have an ACE on the staff.  As much as I like Pelfrey and Pelf has improved he just does not have what it takes to be an ACE, at least not mentally.  Physically I believe Pelf has the stuff to be a number 1 pitcher but I just cannot rely on him, he’s too much in his own head.  Jon Niese is at best a number 3 pitcher.  R.A. Dickey is a number 5 pitcher.  As much as Gee impressed me the final weeks I think we can all agree that he doesn’t have the stuff to be an ACE.  Now I know we have Jenrry Mejia but the verdict is still out on whether or not he can be a major league starter.  Also keep in mind that Mejia has had several injuries in his young career, all when he was starting.

Now the obvious is to say the Mets should go after Cliff Lee this off season. There’s no denying that Cliff Lee is one of the best pitchers in baseball.  As we’ve seen the last 2 years he’s a big game pitcher and can pitch in high pressure situations. Is it widely known that Lee wants a contract very similar to the one that C.C. Sabathia got from the Yankees.  Just to remind everyone C.C. got a 7 year deal worth 161 million dollars!  Cliff Lee next August will turn 33 years old.  That means his contract would expire after he turns 40.  Lee has also had several injuries including a groin injury back in 2008.  This year Lee suffered an oblique injury.  Also it’s been reported that Lee has been having back trouble.  Like I said Lee is a great pitcher but I think for this new front office it would be a mistake to take a chance on him. In fact if their first move was a big bust it would be a disaster.  Look at what happened with Pedro Martinez.  He was on the back end of his career, had several surgeries but the Mets signed him to a 4 year deal, something the Red Sox didn’t because they felt he wouldn’t hold up.  Unfortunately they were right. Pedro was injured for most of his contract and the Mets lost a lot of money on him.  You can say the same has happened with Santana though he has a few more years left before we can really pass judgement.

The new administration needs to learn from the past administrations mistakes. They will need to go after younger pitchers.  I for one would hope whoever gets the GM job (hopefully Alderson) tries to trade for Zack Greinke from Kansas City. It’s well known that Greinke wants a trade.  I know a lot of people would say to trade Pelf but keep in mind Pelf only has 1 more season to free agency and he’s a Boras client also.  Without a doubt we’ll have to give them Mejia and I’m OK with that. Niese is under team control for several more seasons and we’ll have to part with him as well since he’s major league ready.  You might have throw in Dudda and another prospect but If that’s what it takes then the new GM needs to make that deal.

The new GM cannot wait and see how Santana’s surgery works out.  If Santana can come back from this surgery the best case scenario is that we have 2 aces and there is nothing wrong with that.