Updated Post 7:40 PM

Straight from the files of Believe It Or Not, Mike Puma of the New York Post reported via Twitter that Ike Davis is unlikely to be demoted before the end of the weekend.

“Was told Ike is on double, secret probation, but likely still be a Met on Friday. Mets will use weekend to get a “better understanding.”

If the Mets still need more time to get a better understanding of Davis, they’re not as smart as I thought they were. Obviously I’ve been giving them far too much credit…

Original Post 5:30 PM

Ike Davis has lost his way. Not just at the plate, but in the field too. Terry Collins said after the game today, that the first baseman’s slump at the plate has not affected his play on the field. I beg to differ.

Maybe Terry feels a desperate need to defend his players, but to say that his last few miscues on the field are unrelated to what Davis is going through at the plate doesn’t ring true.

We’ve all seen Ike Davis at his best and have all marveled as fans over his gold glove caliber defense. But that was then and this is now. His instincts at first base are deteriorating and I believe it’s because he has something else eating at his mind. Davis is so unfocused and frequently looks like he’s in a daze.

During the 2010 through 2012 seasons, Ike Davis makes that play today down the first base line rather than just staring at it. The same can be said about his faux pas two days earlier when he stood in front of the runner on the basepath like a zombie and got called for obstruction.

Why can’t Terry Collins see what is so apparent to the few thousand fans who still go to the game? There’s a good reason why Davis is absorbing all the boos at the plate and now in the field. This isn’t the same player we grew to love almost from the first moment he made his debut three years ago. Remember how excited we were? Who didn’t think Ike Davis was a core player right from the start?

We want that Ike Davis back again. The only way that happens is by doing the right thing and sending him to Triple-A where he can sort out his problems and rediscover his stroke, his glove, and more importantly his confidence that is evidently shattered.

I’m not mad at Davis, I’m really not. But I am angry at Terry Collins who constantly makes excuses for bad baseball. There seems to be no more accountability on this team, only a boatload of excuses after each game. I guess that’s what I’m most concerned about. I want a manager who gets pissed off when he sees a breakdown in baseball fundamentals and not cover for his players.

Maybe Ike Davis’ biggest problem is Terry Collins who seems to have become his enabler… I don’t know, I’m not a psychologist, but it sure looks that way…

Davis is a very likable guy and I still believe he has a world of talent. But it’s time for the Mets to save him… It’s time for the Mets to try and get Davis back on track and that’s not going to happen in the major leagues. Don’t let this situation reach the point of no return because if that happens, we all lose. Just do the right thing.

Ike Davis’ troubles at the plate and in the field continued as he botched two plays at first, one in which opened the door to the Reds’ three-run ninth inning in Wednesday’s 7-4 loss. With the Mets being swept, they fell to a season-high ten games below .500. Matt Harvey did not have a great start, but came away with another no-decision.

ON THE MOUND: Harvey gave up four runs on nine hits in 6.1 innings. …. Bobby Parnell gave up three runs on three hits in the ninth inning.

AT THE PLATE: Davis walked twice, and in a comment that says it all about the kind of season he is having, Terry Collins said it might be a good sign. … Daniel Murphy had three hits and Rick Ankiel doubled twice and tripled. All other Mets combined for three hits.

IN THE FIELD: Davis hesitated on a ground ball up the line in the seventh and a run scored. He let another get by him in the ninth to let another run score and opened the door for two more. Unbelievably, Collins said Davis isn’t carrying his slump to the field.

THEY SAID IT: “It just typifies everything that’s happened.’’  Collins on Davis’ fielding adventures in the ninth inning.

BY THE NUMBERS: 17-27 record to fall season-high ten games below .500.

ON DECK: Mets off Thursday, then begin a three-run series against Atlanta Friday at Citi Field.

Thoughts from Joe D.

Well obviously Matt Harvey didn’t have his best stuff, but let’s not kid ourselves either – the Cincinnati Reds are a great team. He’s a gamer, he’ll come roaring back next time out. What sucks more to me is that for the next four games our chance of winning are less than half of when Harvey is on the mound. Yeah…

Ruben Tejada looked really good out there today and could be on the verge of getting back into a hitting groove. His play in the field has been spectacular in this homestand.

Murphy being Murphy… He’s just awesome…

Boy does this team need a day off….

A year ago Davis was coming off the valley fever scare and ankle injury. His .156/.212/.290 slash line could be intellectualized. Similar numbers (.149/.229/.248) this year are reason for concern. There are many players that are slow starters, but are the Mets’ doomed to Davis not showing up the first ten weeks of the season? Has reality set in that he might be a 4-A hitter with flawed mechanics at the plate?

Davis and Jacobs are not exactly apples to apples comparison. Ike was a highly touted first round pick in 2008. His struggles in Brooklyn during his rookie year in pro ball were well documented. Jacobs was a 38th round pick that nobody talked about when he had a breakout 2005 season in Binghamton. He was supposed to be an injury replacement at the big league level, but If not for Pedro Martinez‘s lobbying after a Sunday afternoon home run, we never would have been treated to Jacobs’ September to remember. It’s also possible that Carlos Delgado would never have been acquired that offseason.

As a full-time first baseman from 2006-2008, Mike Jacobs averaged 23 homers, 75 RBI and a .258 batting average. In his two full seasons of work (2010, 2012) Davis has produced 25 homers and 75 RBI with a similar average. Both produce about the same level of strikeouts, although Davis has the penchant to walk a bit more- although probably not enough for the organization’s liking. Both struggle against left handers. Defensively, there is no comparison. Even when he’s struggled Davis has gold glove potential. Jacobs was only plugged-in at first after failing behind the plate. Still, a first baseman needs to hit at an elite level to be considered valuable. If Jacobs is the best that Davis has to offer, then it’s probably time to question if the Mets have a cornerstone at first base for years to come. Should they package Davis if and when he heats up again? Will a trip to the minors help? Is Lucas Duda the answer? Can they afford to pay for a first baseman on the free agent market?

Many scouts have expressed concern over Davis’ mechanics at the plate. It’s complicated, awkward looking and appears difficult to replicate. The more “noise” a player has in the box the harder it will be to hit a baseball, an already difficult task. Can this be fixed? That is hard to predict, but Davis wouldn’t be the first hot-shot hitting prospect to fizzle at the big league level. At the very least a trip to Triple-A Las Vegas should be on the table.

The Mets got lucky when both Jose Reyes and David Wright developed best case scenarios upon their call-up a decade ago. Prospects are an inexact science and, to date, none of the current group of homegrown players has shown to be consistent everyday big leaguers, much less stars.

WFAN callers rarely provide for intelligent or even interesting commentary. Comedy is more how I would describe my experience. Ironically, a caller to the midday show just might have uncovered a hard reality: Ike Davis is no better than a former flash in the pan prospect. I doubt even a productive final four months of 2013 will net a player any close to Delgado’s capabilities. Remember, lightening doesn’t strike twice.

Alderson is disappointed with the team’s performance this season, particularly with some of the players he acquired for this transition year who did not perform to his expectation.

He no doubt was referring to Collin Cowgill, who he expected to become the team’s leadoff hitter and regular center fielder. Cowgill batted .157/.173/.294 before being demoted to Triple-A after only 19 games.

Andrew Brown failed to make the opening day roster and batted .200 during a brief call-up.

Shaun Marcum, who was signed to a guaranteed $4 million dollar deal, was supposed to replace R.A. Dickey. But the right-hander started the season on the DL, missed nearly a month, and has a 6.59 ERA in five starts since being activated.

Left-hander Aaron Laffey was released after posting a 7.20 ERA in four appearances including two spot starts, and relievers Greg Burke and Scott Atchison have struggled, each with 4.50 ERAs on the season.

Sandy is also concerned with some of the players whom he considered to be part of the future core. When asked to explain who he was talking about, he declined to comment saying only, “I think Met fans know who I’m talking about.”

He left off saying that it’s very tough to watch the team play and not be able to do something to help. However, he will remain patient, but not too patient. Alderson said he would look to some of the younger players in their system to improve the major league roster and named Rafael Montero, Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud as those who could help.

After the game, SNY analyst Bobby Ojeda pointed out that Alderson looked like a man who is very dejected and very disappointed with some of the moves he’s made in putting this team together. He certainly was different than what we’re used to seeing. There were no jokes this time. I think Sandy realizes that it’s time for him to stop talking about the future and deliver on it already. It’s time to produce something tangible. I believe a lot will be riding on how Wheeler and d’Arnaud produce once they are promoted – especially Wheeler.

It will be interesting to see how this drama unfolds… My gut tells me that by the end of this season, Sandy Alderson will either be on very solid footing or a very slippery slope and I’m leaning toward the latter. His fate will be tied to Wheeler’s immediate performance. Stay tuned…

Updated Post 5/22

During Tuesday night’s Mets broadcast, general manager Sandy Alderson said he intends to stick with slumping first baseman Ike Davis for a little while longer, but added that there’s a chance that he might be better off going to Triple-A Las Vegas for some period of time.

Alderson said it’s hard to ignore what Davis did in the second half of last season, but the big difference is that the team is not playing well at this time and he needs production.

Davis went 0-for-3 during the Mets’ 4-0 loss to the Reds on Tuesday night and is 1-for-his-last-36.

The fans let him have it as they loudly booed him during each plate appearance. ”What are you going to do?” Davis said afterward.

He is now batting .149 with 48 strikeouts and a .478 OPS in 42 games this season.

Original Post 5/21

Perhaps Sandy Alderson knew of Andrew Brown’s strained oblique when he said there was nothing imminent about sending Ike Davis to the minor leagues. Assuming he did not, it is puzzling as to why he’s in no hurry to ship out his struggling first baseman.

Eventually, Alderson said, “everything comes to a head at some point,’’ but evidently it is not hitting .156 two months into the season. Either are Davis’ other miserable numbers.

Alderson said he’s interested not in results, but good at-bats. Sounds good in theory, but that won’t happen if Davis’ thinking doesn’t change, and there’s no indication of it happening soon.

About the minor leagues, Davis said that would not help because he needs to learn to hit at this level. Davis insists he’s a home run hitter, that he likes to hit home runs and strikeouts are part of the equation.

I can’t scream “that’s crap,’’ loud enough. Davis is so married to his pull-everything approach that improvement is almost impossible to attain.

Davis’ extraordinary wide stance offers no alternatives but to lunge, and he doesn’t have the discipline to lay off breaking balls down and away and fastballs up in the zone. Davis’ mechanics and approach must be torn down and built back up. It could take a month for that to happen, and it shouldn’t be a month up here.

Incredibly, Davis said he’s having positive at-bats, that in Chicago he just missed driving a few balls. But, the fact is he missed those pitches so they can’t be considered good at-bats. It isn’t as if he’s hit a lot of balls on the screws or driven them to the warning track.

Davis was 1-for-24 on the trip to St. Louis and Chicago; is hitting .103 (4-for-39) with runners in scoring position; and is on pace for 177 strikeouts.

When he first came up, Davis showed a willingness to go to the opposite field. There’s none of that now.

Davis said he’s still playing good defense, but he’s delusional there, too. He should have been given an error when he short-armed Ruben Tejada’s wild throw in the dirt in Chicago. The ball did not take a short hop and was something he should have snared.

He was also flat out lazy Monday night on a obstruction call that opened the door to a big inning for Cincinnati in the first inning.

Davis’ head isn’t screwed on straight and he’s fallen into a myriad of bad habits that preclude good at-bats. Davis anticipates getting a month to work out of his funk, but how much lower will the Mets sink in that time?

For the past three years, the Mets had to settle for lousy at-bats and performance from Jason Bay because of his salary. Currently, Alderson plans to have the Mets settling from horrid performance from Davis despite a manageable contract.

OK, Brown is out, but what about Zach Lutz? What about making a move and adding Josh Satin to the 40-man roster?

It doesn’t matter what they do, except for standing pat, and Alderson hasn’t given a good reason for choosing that route. That decision is doing a disservice to the Mets and not helping Davis any, either.

Thoughts from Joe D.

What a waste of a month it’s been for Ike Davis. Had Davis been sent down to the minors at the end of April when I first called for such a move, he could of been back by now and contributing to the team again. But instead he continues to deteriorate statistically and it’s dragging the team down offensively AND defensively.

Check out this screenshot of his last ten games:

This is further evidence that Davis is still in a downslide and not making any progress at all. He has struck out in more than a third of his at-bats in his last ten games. His average has sunk from an already woeful .190 to .152 after batting just .080 in his last ten games.

What’s worse is how negatively this has affected him defensively. He’s stabbing at balls, lost much of his range, and mishandling throws to him.

He looked completely out of it yesterday when he was called for obstruction. His instincts are shot. His head is not in the game.

Send him down already before the situation becomes completely unsalvageable.

Terry Collins

It won’t be fair, but we know few things in baseball aren’t fair.Collins doesn’t have a contract beyond this season, and his lame duck status rises to the surface when the Mets go into a tailspin, as they did last week when they lost a season-high six straight games, and he later blasted the fans over the Jordany Valdespin episode.

I ripped him over Valdespin with no regrets, but Collins does deserve some points for his clarification the next day. He didn’t retract, which is fine, didn’t say he was misquoted, which is commendable, but said there was room for interpretation.

Sometimes, I don’t get where Collins is coming from when he waffles – for example, I don’t think he gaveCollin Cowgill a long enough opportunity in center/leadoff at the start of the season – but for the most part realize he’s dealing with a lack of depth and talent.

Assuming there’s no turnaround, this will be Collins’ third straight losing season, enough to get most managers sacked, but there is a unique scenario in Flushing.

Collins was not hired to take the Mets to the playoffs. He was hired as a caretaker and to change the culture. He is being asked to win a poker hand with five cards worth of mismatched talent. When it comes to discarding cards, Collins might keep David Wright and Matt Harvey, but that’s about it.

Sandy Alderson – also hired as a caretaker – and ownership, which is trying to stabilize its financial ship, have not given Collins a genuine opportunity to win.

Collins has not changed the culture, but he’s not had total support from Alderson in that regard. How else can you explain Valdespin’s presence on the roster? Also, Alderson’s comments yesterday about it not being imminent Ike Davis will be optioned shows a lack of changing the culture.

And, not for a second do I buy there’s no other alternative. The issue isn’t who will play first base for a month in a lost season, but why won’t they make the decision to do something to help Davis?

That falls on Alderson, not Collins.

A way you determine whether a manager is reaching his players is if they’ll still hustle for him and if he loses his clubhouse, and there’s not enough evidence of either. The captain, Wright, plays hard and is the proper example.

However, keeping Valdespin’s toxic attitude and Davis’ dysfunctional bat could gradually eat away at this team’s psyche. Collins’ lame duck status can also do the same.

If the Mets are to be financially whole after this season and show a willingness to spend to add talent, then Collins should get the opportunity to manage that team. He should get the chance to manage with some degree of talent in his dugout.

In looking at the Mets’ 25-man roster, I only see a handful of players I can say with certainty will be back next year: Wright, Harvey, Jon Niese and Bobby Parnell. I can see Daniel Murphy back, but also dealt in July. I can see somebody else playing shortstop next year. Everybody else I can see gone.

That indicates no core or organizational depth, and that’s not Collins’ fault. Give Collins time with a full deck and then make a decision. It’s not fair to do so otherwise.

As the Knicks were getting pasted in Indianapolis, the Mets did their part to put New York sports fans in a gloomy mood in tonight’s 10-4 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals. It was the Mets’ fifth straight loss to drop them to eight games under .500. Since Jordany Valdespin’s tenth-inning grand slam, April 24, beat the Dodgers to go to 10-9, the Mets have gone 4-13.

ON THE MOUND: The Mets needed innings from Dillon Gee, or more to the point, effective innings. Instead, the Cardinals got to him for six runs through three innings. … Robert Carson gave up a three-run homer to Carlos Beltran. He also gave up a homer to John Jay.AT THE PLATE: So much for the decision to go with Ike Davis and Lucas Duda back-to-back in the batting order. Terry Collins attributed his move to the match-up against John Gast, who was making his first start. Didn’t he know Gast would be pitching tonight? More importantly, this juggling of Davis – because of an unproven pitcher such as Gast – speaks loudly of Collins’ confidence in Davis. … John Buck prevented total embarrassment with a RBI single. … Marlon Byrd hit a two-run homer.

OLD ACQUAINTANCES: Carlos Beltran was a one-man wrecking drew offensively and defensively for the Cardinals. In addition to a couple of nice plays in right field, the former Met Gold Glove All Star went 3-for-5 at the plate incuding the back-breaking three-run homer, four RBI and two runs scored.

WHEELER INJURED: Zack Wheeler will come to New York to have his right clavicle examined. After three straight strong starts, Wheeler complained of soreness in the area. He’s expected to miss at least one start.

BY THE NUMBERS: 6: Homers given up by Carson in 8.1 innings.

THEY SAID IT: “We’ve gone through a bad streak and it’s two weeks long. … We have to play better. We have to coach better. We have to manage better.’’ – Collins on this miserable stretch.

ON DECK: Shaun Marcum (0-3) will start against Shelby Miller (5-2) on Wednesday.

Even the 195-strikeout pace Davis is on wouldn’t be as excruciating if the 26-year-old would demonstrate a hint of humility after getting punched out time after time.

But that’s the issue. He hasn’t. Through his four MLB campaigns, Davis seems to believe he’s entitled to borderline calls at the plate, which—for better or worse—are not given to players in their early 20s all that often. Although there is a way to eradicate that unwritten rule: to get on the umpiring crew’s good side. MLB Etiquette 101.

Either Ike isn’t aware of that, or believes he can complain his way to the benefit of the doubt. Four seasons, 364 games, and nearly 1,500 plate appearances into his Major League career, and Davis still can’t grasp the very simple concept of taking his lumps and sitting down quietly. This, unfortunately, is what deserves an entire post.

Davis has been prone to strikeouts over his career—that cat was let out the bag years ago. But it’s never been more apparent than in 2013. His strikeout percentage is up around 30 percent (chart via Fangraphs), which is more than five percent higher than in any prior season.

Through April 28, eight of Of Davis’ 26 Ks in 2013 have been punchouts. That equates to 31 percent of his strikeouts coming with the bat on his shoulder, which is a five percent increase from 2012 and seven percent higher than the league average.

I broke down the tape of those eight backwards-Ks, and found that Ike did his very best to show up the home plate ump on six of the eight strike-three calls. That comes out to a 75 percent Ike-Davis-Being-Immature rating—yeah, you can call me a sabermagician.

Note: One GIF from 4/10 vs. PHI was lost in the heat of battle . Davis has also struck out looking twice since 4/28 that I haven’t been able to retrieve video from. With or without the missing clips, the point still stands. Ike won’t be getting the close ones any time soon.

Included are strikezone plots for corresponding at-bats from Brooks Baseball.

Example 1: April 4, Inning 1

Example 2: April 4, Inning 8

Example 3: April 7, Inning 8

Example 4: April 16, Inning 1

Example 5: April 20, Inning 2

I hate to exert this much energy ranting against Ike, because I’ve been on his side of the Keep-Davis-or-Keep-Duda argument all along. His second-half numbers from 2012 are downright scary, and I didn’t think it was outrageous to expect the ball to continue rolling in that direction in 2013. Perhaps I was wrong.

The point here is that sometimes Davis has a legit gripe with the home plate ump. But acting out like a spoiled child leaving the toy store empty handed isn’t exactly the way to present an argument to an umpire (a grown man).

It’s an issue that Davis was approached about as early as 2010 as a rookie. Nearly three years later, it’s still an issue.

Ike’s struggles during his ABs are one issue—and don’t be mistaken, they’re plentiful—but its the lack of judgement after them that are especially concerning as he transitions from a precocious neophyte to a whiny veteran.

Follow me on Twitter at @JSDorn6.

Stats and graphics obtained from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Brooks Baseball.

Over in left field, Lucas Duda is getting on base and hitting with some serious power. He’s moving up in the order and Davis is moving down.

Assuming Sandy Alderson fulfills his promise and nabs a decent outfielder before the deadline and during the offseason, it’s a safe bet that the front office is going to have to make a decision as to which player is the first baseman of the future.

I think it’s reasonable to say that Ike isn’t going to finish the season with a sub-200 batting average. On the other hand, Duda’s going to come down to Earth at some point. These are two very streaky hitters we’re talking about here, and Ike is having his slump in April for the second season in a row.

But who’s the better player? Who’s the best fit at first if we get a legit outfield bat?

Small sample sizes tend to lead to knee-jerk reactions, and Lucas and Ike haven’t had equal seasons in terms of at-bats and playing time. I went over to Baseball Reference and grouped both Davis and Duda’s plate appearances in batches of 500, spaced out over intervals of 100. In other words, I looked at the stats from plate appearances 1-500, 101-600, 201-700, and down the line for each players career to date. I took four key stats – K%, BB%, HR% and BABIP (batting average on balls in play) – and graphed them to see if there were any trends.

Lets look at Ike’s chart:

The most alarming thing is that Ike’s BABIP has been plummeting. He’s making weak contact and popping up more and more each month. Basically, he’s becoming Adam Dunn without the walks. If his BABIP keeps trending down then we’re going to be seeing a lot of .220 seasons in the future. Lots of home runs are nice, but out of all the players who hit 30 or more homers in 2012, Ike had the second-worst OPS behind Josh Reddick.

Looking over at Duda’s chart, we see that he’s a little more consistent:

His strikeouts and walks are going up, and home run power has remained pretty consistent since he was called up in 2010. For all the talk about his explosive power potential, it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever hit more than 20-25 in a season.

All of these revelations shine a light on the fact that the Mets are stuck between a rock and a hard place at first base. You don’t even need charts or stats to see the Ike is lost at the plate. Every time he faces the pitcher he blinks his eyes like he’s been driving cross-country for thirty-six hours and the Red Bull is wearing off. If I had to choose one, I’d probably pick Duda just to be able to put someone with some range out in left field. At least Duda has a chance to get on base at a respectable pace.

In the meantime, Sandy should add “first base” to his shopping list.

* * * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Eli Brazell. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 16,000 Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

As it often has been with the Mets over the years, what was once good quickly and dramatically turned sour as 5-2 fell to 10-15.

The Mets rode Matt Harvey’s blistering start – they won five of his six starts – but have to be alarmed he was responsible for half their victories. Once again, the Mets fell victim to the same old vices that have crippled them for years.

The bullpen collapsed, the team went cold hitting with runners in scoring position, and they couldn’t overcome the gaping hole in the backend of their rotation. They ended the month with a six-game losing streak and finished at 10-14.

PITCHER OF THE MONTH: Harvey was everything as advertised and yesterday was named the National League’s Pitcher of the Month, going 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA. In 40.1 innings, Harvey struck out 46 while walking just 12.

PLAYER OF THE MONTH: The Mets’ biggest bat belonged to John Buck, who hit nine homers with 25 RBI. The Mets insist he wasn’t a throw-in in the R.A. Dickey trade, but with Travis d’Arnaud out for two months with a fractured foot, Buck will not be dangled soon. The pitchers swear by him.

DISAPPOINTMENT OF THE MONTH: It can’t be anybody else but Ike Davis, who is on pace to strike out 196 times. Last year the Mets did not option Davis and let him work his way back to where he hit 32 homers. If this year’s start continues much longer, will they make the same decision?

BEST SERIES OF THE MONTH: Playing in unbearable conditions, the Mets outscored the Twins in Minnesota by a combined 20-7 in winning two of three games. Harvey flirted with a no-hitter in the second game and the third was snowed out.

WORST SERIES OF THE MONTH: It would be easy to say their three losses in snowy and freezing Colorado, but that would be too easy. And, they deserve a break because of the weather. So, let’s make it the three games they were swept in Citi Field by the Phillies, April 26-28. The losses to Philadelphia comprised half their six-game losing streak. From there, the Mets lost consecutive one-run games in Miami, coughing up the lead in the ninth inning both times.

BEST GAME OF THE MONTH: April 24, at Citi Field. The Mets couldn’t win a Harvey start, but sent the game into extra innings on David Wright’s two-out single in the ninth and Jordany Valdespin’s grand slam homer in the tenth.

WORST GAME OF THE MONTH: There were several to choose from, but let’s take Monday’s heartbreaker in Miami. Not only did they waste a Harvey start, but went 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position and blew two save opportunities in losing 4-3 in 15 innings.

APRIL BY THE NUMBERS: Buck’s nine homers and 25 RBI. … Davis’ .159 average with 29 strikeouts, which outnumbered his walks and hits combined. … Lucas Duda is second in the NL with 20 walks. … Daniel Murphy hit .350 (7-for-20) with RISP. … Wright hit .462 (12-for-26) with RISP. … The bullpen blew three save opportunities and has a 5.09 ERA. The Mets are 3-13 when the pen gives up a run. … Seven times the pen worked at least five innings, a direct reflection on the back end of the rotation. … Longest winning streak was three games and the longest losing streak was six games. … The Mets were 1-6 in one-run games. … Longest hitting streak: Eight games by Murphy. … The Mets used 22 different batting orders in 25 games for the month. … The Mets have used six different leadoff hitters. … Seven different pitchers started games, including Aaron Laffey, who started two and is no longer with the team. … The Mets hit three grand slams for the month.

QUESTIONS COMING OUT OF THE MONTH

Q: Is Matt Harvey for real?

A: Who really knows, but all indications are he is. Harvey’s numbers are impressive, but not as much as is composure and tenacity on the mound.

Q: How long will the Mets stay with Ike Davis?

A: Working in Davis’ favor is the Mets’ reluctance to move Lucas Duda to first base. Davis’ struggling also indicates how thin the Mets are in the minor leagues.

Q: Will they quit fooling around with Jordany Valdespin?

A: The Mets have used six different leadoff hitters. Also, Valdespin won two games with homers, but still languishes in a non-starting role.

Q: Is bullpen and outfield help on the way?

A: There has been some juggling and movement on the Vegas shuttle, but nothing of any substance.

Q: Zack Wheeler, how soon?

A: Wheeler is coming off his best start, but that’s not enough for the Mets to promote him. Should he have two or three like the last one, perhaps the end of the month?

THE MONTH AHEAD: The Mets snapped their losing streak May 1 with Valdespin’s homer Wednesday. The Mets are in Atlanta this weekend, a place where they have not fared well. There are few easy putts this month, as their schedule includes four games in St. Louis, three against Cincinnati and three more with the Braves at Citi Field, and four interleague games with the Yankees.

METS vs ATLANTA PROBABLES

Friday: RHP Shaun Marcum (0-2, 7.94) vs. LHP Mike Minor (3-2, 3.13), 7:30 p.m. ET.

Saturday: LHP Jonathan Niese (2-2, 3.31) vs. RHP Julio Teheran (1-0, 5.08), 7:10 p.m. ET.

Sunday: RHP Matt Harvey (4-0, 1.56) vs. RHP Tim Hudson (3-1, 3.86), 1:35 p.m. ET.

My first reason is Ike Davis’ ceiling is far greater than any alternative in the Mets system. The Mets don’t have a player right now who has the potential to be an impact player. The Mets do have Josh Satin, but he has a limited upside. He doesn’t have a lot of power potential, and he is an average at best defender. His numbers also seem less impressive when you take into account that he’s a 28 year old in AAA hitting in Las Vegas, which is a notorious hitter’s paradise.

Who else do the Mets have? Zach Lutz is hitting .218 in Las Vegas and has very limited experience playing first base in the minors. Justin Turner is a nice bench player, but he’s not good enough to be an everyday starter. The Mets could also move Duda to first and call up an outfielder, but with the organization’s lack of quality players at the position, it is unlikely that they have an outfielder that could come up and make a significant impact.
The reality of the situation is that the Mets have no one else who can legitimately be an impact player at first base. While Davis has been inconsistent throughout his young career, he’s had many stretches where he has been an impact player. Davis had a solid season in 2010. He was great in the early part of the 2011 season before he suffered a season ending injury, and last year he had an outstanding 2nd half. If Ike Davis makes the right adjustments, he has a far greater upside than any other alternative the Mets have.

My second point is if Davis could rebound and have a solid second half last year, then why can’t he have a similar rebound this season? In the 2nd half last season, Ike was one of the best power hitters in the league. Davis hit .269/.351/.562 with 27HR and 68 RBI after June 10th of last season. Davis’ problems at the plate are eerily similar to last season, so Davis has proven he is capable of making the necessary adjustments to turn his season around.

My third point is that it’s too early to panic. While it’ certainly not too soon to be concerned about Davis, it’s way too soon to make a drastic decision like sending him down. It would not be a wise decision to send down a player because of one bad month. Many good players have bad months during the course of a 162 game season. Davis’ early season struggles are more pronounced because his slump is happening in April. If Davis is batting sub .200 in August for example, many people would not notice.

The Mets need to exhibit patience with Ike Davis. The Mets should not make a shortsighted decision by sending him down. He has the ability to turn his season around, and he has a higher upside than any alternative in the system. If his problems continue to persist later on during the season, then sending him down will be an option. But as for now, he should continue to be the Mets everyday first baseman.

After another three-strikeout performance, Davis now has 29 Ks in 82 at-bats and is on pace for over 195 strikeouts.

Back on April 17, I stated that Davis has shown himself to be nothing more than a platoon player at best throughout his major league career. I suggested that the Mets promote Josh Satin from Triple-A at the time and looking at each of their numbers now, almost two weeks later anevat the end of April, everything I wrote back then has been completely validated.

The right-handed hitting Satin can give the Mets what they need desperately right now as his .333/.429/.550 batting line would attest. A product of the PCL? Not on your life. Satin has always been a great and disciplined hitter and one look at his career .397 on-base in six minor league seasons should have the suits in the front office with their tongues hanging out of their mouths, as would his .466 slugging percentage.

Collins is playing favorites. You see, Ike Davis is gritty so he gets to play and avoids the same kind of treatment that Lucas Duda got when he was sent to Triple-A last season. After all. we wouldn’t want to piss Ike off… Him and Wright are besties…

I’ve now gone from clamoring for a platoon at first base to now sending Davis back to the Minors. Yes, Ike, that’s where hackers like you belong.

We’ll miss your occasional bomb that you sandwich in between a dozen or so strikeouts, but we won’t miss you .159 batting average which has sucked the life out of our offense. I know many a Met fan who wasn’t this patient with Jeff Francoeur despite his gaudy defense. So what’s the big holdup here?

Right now Davis is a negative impact player.

It’s time to release the Kraken.

It was just three measly years ago that a budding young power-hitting first basemen looked nervously into the camera as Chris Carlin interviewed him live before millions of viewers late one Spring Training evening in a local pub. As they concluded, Carlin refers to him as “The future of the New York Mets, Ike Davis.”, which gets a rousing cheer from the Mets fans in the restaurant. He smiles–uncomfortably–at the applause as they cut back to studio.

It was just three years ago that the Jacobs-Tatis platoon at first was failing, and that same budding young power-hitting first baseman was making some noise down  in Buffalo, ultimately leading to a phone call and a subsequent plane ride into LaGuardia Airport.

It was barely three years ago that fans laid witness to the next great Met blossoming before their eyes. It was three years ago he dove into dugouts, cranked walk-off homers into the Pepsi Porch and excited a downtrodden fanbase in a way not seen since the pennant race of 2006.

Now three years later, Davis has brought a whole new meaning to “Pure Chaos”, and not in a good way.  He is completely lost at the plate, has made solid contact on only a fraction of his mere 13 hits this season (the majority of which went over the fence), and at this point is playing himself out of a job.

Ike has stated that he has a tendency to start off the year slow and it takes time for him to warm up, however if his batting doesn’t come to a boil soon, the Mets have a ready-made first baseman waiting in the wings–or at least in left field–.

Duda taking over first is not out of the realm of possibilities. Prior to d’Arnaud’s injury Terry Collins already proposed the idea of sliding John Buck over to first when the Mets top-hitting prospect eventually got the call. If someone who has yet to play first in their professional career had been on the table to at least split time at first with Davis, why wouldn’t Duda, someone who played more first base than left field in the minors, be in the fold as well?

Collins said last week that there are no plans to us Duda at first, however if Davis continued to swing-and-miss, things could change in a hurry.

Lucas Duda is not an outfielder, no matter how hard the Mets try to force it on him. He is a first base/ designated hitter type of player. Sure he doesn’t have the defensive prowess of Davis, however Davis hasn’t exactly been the same out on the diamond since his rookie campaign.

This is not to say Duda or anyone else is going to take Ike’s job in 2013, however when this offseason comes and goes, I am not confident that Ike Davis will be a New York Met come Opening Day 2014. He is set to make $7-8 million in arbitration next year, and that could be too rich for the shallow pockets of the Alderson regime.

He has been through major slumps in the minors, his first season and in 2012 and was able to turn himself around. When it comes down to it however, the Amazin’s can’t afford to have their first baseman bat under the Mendoza line through one half of the season, then go on a tear post-All Star Break in the next.

That will not be seen as worth the money for Sandy Alderson and the Mets. This has become a make-or-break year for Isaac Benjamin Davis, and if he doesn’t turn it around soon, things might get a whole lot more “chaotic” for the former-budding young star.

In last weekend’s edition of 3&3, I cautioned to watch out for a Dodger’s team that was struggling. That warning should have been extended to this weekend’s series with the Phillies as well. Against two teams that have been struggling, our Mets finished 1-5. Looks like our team is fast becoming a cure to another team’s slump.

3 UP

• Kyle’s Complete Game: We don’t like giving and “Ups” to the opposition, especially the Phillies, but let’s be fair, Kyle Kendrick pitched a heck of a game on Friday night (complete game, three hitter). Kendrick was so good, every Met at-bat looked as if the Mets had 10PM dinner reservations.
• Jon & Gee Deserved Better: Dillon Gee looked pretty good on Friday until he hit a bump in the road in the sixth inning. Aside from that he pitched well. That’s two consecutive good outings for Gee. On Sunday, Jon Niese also deserved a better fate, but sloppy play and a lack of offense did him in. That’s too bad, both Niese and Gee pitched good enough to win.
• We Lost Our Edge: Josh Edgin, who in my opinion needed to go, was sent to Binghamton. Mets’ brass say they wanted to keep him close, but I’m betting they wanted him to avoid the heavy hitting in the PCL. Terry Collins was quoted as saying he wants Edgin to be able to get here fast. Okay. I can’t think of a good reason the Mets would need a pitcher so quickly that they couldn’t wait for him to fly in from Vegas. Then again, it’s kind of messed up to have your AAA team on the other side of the country.

3 Down

• Diddley From Davis: Seems like a series doesn’t go by that we don’t mention the lack of productivity from Ike Davis. We gave him a break last year, what with the broken ankle, and the Rocky Mountain Fever, but come on, through the first month of the season Davis has done nothing. The Mets tell us 2014 err 2015 is supposed to be the year, but will, or should Davis still be here? The Mets may not be saying anything in public, but privately, they have to be worried. You can’t have your first baseman sleepwalking through April and May year after year.
• Busted Bullpen: In Metland they talk about how the Mets lead the league in runs scored. Then they say how bad the bullpen has been, which is why we are now three games under .500. Is it expecting too much for a guy to come into the game for one inning, or one batter, and be effective?! This bullpen is beyond a joke, and a complete disaster. It’s a reality horror show.
• Two Games, Six Hits: This weekend series featured two games in which the Mets mustered only three hits. In all fairness, the Phillies have some good pitching, but come on already. The Mets need to amp it up and stop relying on John Buck every night. Ike has been horrible, Murph’s bat has cooled off, Wright has just two home runs, and there has been terrible production from the outfield save Jordany Valdespin. The Mets need to produce every day, and everyone needs to start contributing.

The Mets now head south to visit fellow doormats, the Miami Marlins. Matt Harvey will pitch the opener tonight, but after that who know’s what to expect.

According to Terry Collins, it’s too early to worry about Ike Davis and his prolonged slump.

“There is no need to panic about Ike Davis, or talk about sending him to the minor leagues,” Collins told reporters.

Would the Mets consider sending Ike to minors?

“If that discussion is going to be had, it’s not going to be had for a long time. You have to have patience.”

Ike Davis is batting seventh in the order in tonight’s game against the Phillies.

Original Post 9:30 AM

Ike Davis should log on to his computer, Google the book, “Ted Williams: The Science of Hitting,’’ and order a copy.

Maybe it is time both he and the Mets realize Davis isn’t just struggling, but that perhaps he doesn’t know too much about hitting. Davis homered yesterday, but for my money I would rather he slapped a single to left in the sixth with runners on second and third and two outs.

Instead, he struck out. Again. For those scoring at home, it was the 24^thtime he has walked back to the dugout in disgust, compared to just 12 hits. Old stats, new stats, it doesn’t matter, Davis is not producing.Davis has four homers and seven RBI. He’s hitting .174 with a .260 on-base percentage, .348 slugging percentage and .608 OPS. However, the number that kills me is he’s on pace for 194 strikeouts.

I spoke with Davis about strikeouts and using the whole field and he told me he’s a home run hitter, he likes to hit home runs, and strikeouts are part of the equation. He’s missing the boat with that reasoning, much like he’s missing the breaking ball away.

Suppose Davis cut his strikeouts in half to 97, which is still a lot. That would be 97 times he would be putting the ball in play instead of throwing his bat. Think how many more homers he’d produce in those 97 at-bats, not to mention productive at-bats when he’ll drive in a run with a hit, sacrifice fly or ground out.

“It’s about contact,’’ manager Terry Collins said. “These big home run hitters, they’re going to strike out. That’s part of the program. Ike, when he’s going good, he gets hits. He just doesn’t get home runs.

“You go back two years ago in the first half where he drove in everybody who was standing at second base. They were base hits. They weren’t always home runs. I think if he again starts using the field more – especially the opposite field – it also takes that shift away from them, which a lot of teams play on him. And I think it’ll make a difference.’’

That’s what Williams preached in his book. Teams used the shift against Williams, and this is when he didn’t use his own advice. However, Williams was so good he produced over his own stubbornness. In his wildest dreams, Davis isn’t half as good as Williams.

Williams might have been the greatest hitter ever, even considering Babe Ruth. Williams’ average year was .344 with 37 homers and 130 RBI. When you factor in he lost five prime years of his career serving in World War II and the Korean War, his lifetime numbers would have been through the roof.

When you boil it down, Williams’ fundamental advice about hitting was get a good pitch to hit. Williams was so precise he broke down the strike zone into baseball-size segments to where he had each area had its own batting average.

“As we’ve studied his at-bats, they’re just killing him away,’’ Collins told reporters after Thursday’s loss.

Williams calculated the low-and-away pitch at best would produce a .230 average. Davis isn’t even giving the Mets that much. That average would increase, Williams said, if the hitter went that way instead of trying to pull. Instead, Davis is chasing everything, which means the pitch doesn’t have to be that good.

Collins sees that: “If he starts going that way to where he’s going to use more of the field to hit, he’s got some better opportunities to drive some runs in.’’

Unfortunately, Davis does not: “Sometimes they’re helpful. Sometimes they’re not. Me slapping the ball the other way early in the count is probably not helpful.’’

Rebuttal: How would Davis know if he hasn’t tried it routinely? He did when he first came up, but rarely since.

Either Davis doesn’t know the fundamentals of hitting, or refuses to listen to his coaches and manager. And, Collins and GM Sandy Alderson are wrong for accepting this kind of performance.

Listen, I don’t know how to build a watch, but I know how to tell time, and the time has come for Davis to change. Either him, or the Mets should.

Please follow me on Twitter @jdelcos

Most baseball pundits cast off the Mets’ outfield as being the worst in the league heading into the season.

On paper, maybe that is correct, but based on performance, the Mets outfield hasn’t been all that bad.

Lucas Duda has looked good offensively, Marlon Byrd has had some big hits, Mike Baxter gives all-out effort every time he’s on the field, and Jordany Valdespin proved last night what a great asset he is to the ball club.

Of the group, Collin Cowgill has struggled since his Opening Day grand slam, and Kirk Nieuwenhuis really didn’t have a place on this roster.

So Juan Lagares was called up to replace Kirk. But the timing of it all is somewhat strange.

Lagares was hitting .346 in Las Vegas so a call-up was certainly warranted. But where does he fit on the big league roster at this point?

Duda is entrenched in left field. That’s a given. In right, Byrd hasn’t exactly played himself out of the batting order, and again Baxter – as exhibited by his key hustle double last night – produces when given the chance.

Center field has been the revolving door, but Valdespin has shown that he could be productive if given the chance. Cowgill might be in a cold spell, but he could very well regain his hot form from spring training.

The thing that confuses me is that Lagares should not be in the Majors unless he’s playing every day. He’s said to be a great defensive center fielder – which is of course important – but he needs to consistently be put up against top-notch pitching.

If Terry Collins is insistent on trying to get Cowgill regular at-bats, then Lagares should still be in Vegas. And throw Valdespin in the mix, and who knows what’s going on in center?

Even a platoon situation with Lagares and Valdespin would not do the kid much good. If he ever plans on being a regular, he’ll need to face both righties and lefties.

Here’s a potential scenario, that I hope does not play, out but could be an option. If Ike Davis continues his abysmal stretch, the Mets may consider sending him down to Vegas to find himself. Duda then moves to first, and Valdespin can play left with Lagares in center.

We learned last season that even after a slow start, Davis can turn it on in a big way. His second half last year has basically earned him a free pass to struggle early on this year. But if he doesn’t find his stroke like he did last season, maybe a change would do him good.

Again though, let’s hope Davis finds his stroke.

Right now, let Valdespin play; he’s an electric talent. Everyone keeps saying that he’s so raw, but the only way to get more refined is to constantly be in the lineup.

Not many players can say they are not in the starting lineup the day after hitting a walk-off grand slam. Sure, the Mets are facing a lefty, but again, you have to give Valdespin the exposure.

Same goes for Lagares. If Collins can find him regular at-bats, that’s one thing. But if Cowgill is getting the start over him, then he should be playing every day in Vegas.

Maybe I haven’t given this enough time to properly play out, but there’s no point in having a prospect sit on the bench in the Majors when he could be refining his game every day in the minors.

Mets Starting Lineup

1. Ruben Tejada – SS
2. Daniel Murphy – 2B
3. David Wright – 3B
4. John Buck – C
5. Marlon Byrd – RF
6. Lucas Duda – LF
7. Justin Turner – 1B
8. Collin Cowgill – CF
9. Jonathon Niese – LHP

Game Notes

The Mets lead the National League, averaging 5.82 runs per game, narrowly ahead of the Colorado Rockies (5.78). Imagine if we had a legitimate backend of the rotation? We’d have at least 11-12 wins with that kind of run support. (Joe D.)

Juan Lagares, who was promoted to the Mets from Triple-A Las Vegas today, will be available and wear Uniform No. 12 which was last worn by Scott Hairston. Wally Backman has always spoken highly of Juan Lagares who has a .282 minor league average. (Joe D.)

The Aaron Laffey era is officially over as he was claimed by the Toronto Blue Jays on waivers this afternoon. Laffey had a 7.20 ERA, allowing eight earned runs on 16 hits with four walks and nine strikeouts in 10 innings for the Mets. And so it goes… (Joe D.)

Left-hander on the mound and Ike Davis on the bench. Does Terry Collins read MMO too? It’s about time Terry… (Joe D.)

Mets minor leaguer Christian Montgomery has been suspended 50 games for a second positive test of a drug of abuse, according to Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.

Game Preview

The Mets and Dodgers start a series tomorrow night as the Mets look to build off of a series win against the Nationals. The Mets are catching the Dodgers at a good time as several players are struggling and moral is low. The Dodgers catch the Mets at an interesting time as they just beat two of the better pitchers in baseball (Strasburg, Zimmermann) and the Mets will get another challenge tonight in Clayton Kershaw.

Jon Niese had two rough starts in a row in two cold weather environments. In his first two starts, he was 2-0 over 12.2 innings with 9 strikeouts and a 2.13 ERA. In his next starts he was 1-1 after pitching 11.0 innings allowing 8 runs with 7 earned. Tonight he looks to channel the first two starts. He had a no decision in one start last year against the Dodgers allowing 3 ER over 7 innings. The Dodgers have the following against Niese:

Uribe 0-11
Hairston 1-10
Kemp 4-9
Ethier 4-9
Cruz 1-5
Punto 0-5

The Mets batters will try to rough Kershaw tonight who is 2-2 with a 1.88 ERA in his first four starts on the season. He started off the season with 16.2 scoreless innings which he followed up with 6 ER over 12.2 innings. He had one start against the Mets last year and he allowed 3 runs, 1 earned over 7 innings of work. The Mets have the following numbers against Clayton:

Wright 2-12, 2B
Buck 1-8
Turner 1-10
Byrd 6-9
Tejada 3-5
Davis 1-6, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

It was May of 2011 when Davis was hitting .302 with a .383 on-base percentage and resembling the slugger the Mets had trumpeted he could be when he ran into David Wright and hurt his left ankle and missed the rest of the season.

Then came last year, the virus and a miserable first half where he was almost sent back to the minors. He salvaged 2012 with a strong second half and 32 homers appeared to give him a pass going into this season, but he’s flailing again. How long before this season-opening slump becomes a first-half swoon?

Davis gave me an answer indicating what could be his problem this spring when I asked him about striking out, and whether he should concentrate on going to the opposite field and being more patient.

“I like to hit home runs,’’ Davis said in much the same tone a kid would say he likes to eat candy. Then, in what could be defined as defiance, added, “I’m a home run hitter; I’m going to strike out.’’

All that was missing was him sticking his tongue out and muttering, “so there.’’

Statistics can be interpreted any way you want, but Davis’ – both this year and his career – scream he might not be as good as he’s cracked up to be, and despite his manageable contract, is currently an offensive liability.

What else can you take out of a .129 batting average, .229 on-base percentage, .226 slugging percentage, one homer, two RBI and 11 strikeouts compared to four hits and four walks? Whether you are a traditionalist and believe in the basic stats, or are into the new math of baseball, it still adds up to a big hole in the middle of the order.

Go ahead, convince me those are good numbers.

Go ahead, convince me a 162-game average of .249 with 150 strikeouts to 72 walks, is somebody you build a team around.

General manager Sandy Alderson said strikeouts are acceptable if there’s a reasonable expectation of run production in return. He has driven in two this season.

These numbers, as is his .214 average against left-handers, are the result of poor plate habits. He lacks patience or pitch recognition; he either refuses or can’t shorten a swing that begins with a terrible hitch that gives him a long loop; and he doesn’t use the entire field. Either he doesn’t listen to the hitting coach or the hitting coach isn’t reaching him.

Davis can’t handle the low-and-away breaking pitches to the point where it is a mystery why pitchers would ever throw him a fastball. A manager should fine his pitchers if they threw Davis anything other than breaking stuff away. They should keep throwing him curveballs low-and-away until he proves capable of handling them.

Davis is rapidly becoming an all-or-nothing slugger in the mold of Dave Kingman, Rob Deer, Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. These are guys who are thrilling when they connect, but usually don’t.

If Davis continues on his current course, it will get to the point whether he changes his style and approach, or the Mets should change their first baseman.

It’s not difficult.

2005 was a pivotal year because at it’s conclusion the focus of management shifted to obtaining those perceived few pieces that they needed to become a championship team, but the 2005 team was already showing the effects of a broader organizational depth problem. Willie Randolph, then manager, said of that team:

“We’ve matured and grown, and we’ve learned a lot of things about ourselves as a team, and the bottom line is we played hard all year. We didn’t stop playing, and that’s something I’m most proud of. When you have young players who are some of the core of your team, you can look to the future. When you add some pieces, that can be really special.”

The 2005 Mets were by most accounts contenders and stayed in the thick of the playoff picture until a second half stretch from August  27^th to September 17^th when they lost 16 of 20. In spite of a wealth of talent, the bullpen wore down, lacking the depth to sustain a playoff drive. 2006 saw the addition of Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner instantly bolstering expectations, but even that team slumped in September, having lost a key bullpen cog to a taxi-cab accident, and then saw both it’s ace and his replacement go down to calf injuries in the run-up to the playoffs. While they were able to steamroll the Dodgers in the opening round, they were beaten in the NLCS by a Cardinal team that came in with a bullpen that hadn’t allowed a run in 13 1/3 post-season innings and which featured a young Adam Wainwright.

The pattern of the late season fade was already in place by 2007 when it became clear that the penny-wise pound-foolish approach to building a contender created a top heavy roster that neglected to address the dearth of quality replacements. To be fair, the 2006 Mets were a different team, a team that was tantalizingly close, so the temptation to focus on select free agent acquisitions rather than fortifying the minor leagues was not without precedent, it is the standard approach when you are on the brink of the post season. What went unnoticed however was that like a great boulder eroding at it’s foundation from the repeated crashing of waves, the  2006 and 2007 Mets were aging and eventually crumbled not just from the weight of their veteran presence, but from the organization’s failure to develop supplemental, even league average replacements, particularly in the bullpen.

As recently as 2012 the Mets were still featuring a version of their late season collapse with their second half record looking about as gruesome as day-old roadkill on a desert highway. Remarkably they were still in the pennant race leading up to the All-Star break, which is half a season of good baseball, so you can’t really argue sample size … no, the Mets in actuality were pretty darned competitive up until that point. The popular perception was that they stopped scoring runs, but initially in July this was not the case at all — it was the pitching that went south with a whopping 5.25 team ERA for the month, and as in every previous collapse, it was the bullpen that shouldered a hefty portion of the blame. The failure to stock and restock an effective bullpen has plagued this organization for almost a decade now.

Fast forward to 2013 with the Mets trouncing the Padres on opening day. The Mets look like the better team, but the 2012 Padres didn’t suffer a second half collapse. Quite the contrary they were 2 wins better on the season and enjoyed something of a second half surge going 42 and 33. Now there are two things that come to mind when you think Padres, their farm system and their bullpen. The Braves? Again, terrific farm, excellent bullpen. Oakland? Tampa Bay? Arizona? Do we see a pattern? Below is a chart detailing bullpen ranking by ERA, Minor League System Rankings, and win totals.

In looking at the above, the positive correlation between bullpen era and minor league system rankings (MLSR) stands out — 6 of the top 11 teams in bullpen ERA also feature minor league systems ranked in the top third. Clearly teams with strong farm systems seem to have a better shot at building strong bullpens. There also appears to be a broader correlation between MLSR and bullpen performance in general. Lower quadrant teams (the Cubs, Rockies and Astros) more or less track a parallel trajectory across bullpen ERA and MLSR (and win totals for that matter).

There are a few exceptions, the Orioles had a relatively depleted farm system yet were able to construct an upper echelon bullpen, while the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, with relatively strong farm systems, featured ineffective relief pitching in 2012. But notably, no team that placed in the top ten for wins appeared in the bottom third for either bullpen ERA or MLSR. The takeaway?  There is indeed a correlation between a good farm system and an effective bullpen, and there is a very strong negative correlation between placing in the bottom third for bullpen ERA or MLSR and a winning record. In simpler terms, if you want to win you need a good bullpen, and if you want a good bullpen you need a good farm.

The positive slope of the spread in the above graph demonstrates the aforementioned correlation between MLSR and Bullpen ERA. The data points are the intersections of bullpen ERA and MLSR for all 30 MLB teams. Of the outliers, Toronto (the lone data point in the bottom left corner) was perhaps the biggest with the second best farm system in baseball for 2012 and one of the worst Bullpen ERA’s. The Mets themselves were an outlier, next to last in bullpen ERA with a farm system ranked 16th … based on the above, the Mets should have had a better bullpen in 2012. Nevertheless it is clear that as your farm system improves, your bullpen’s ERA declines.

If there was one constant in the “collapse” years, it was the propensity to focus on the 25 man roster without making provisions for the naturally occurring attrition that unfolds over a 162 game schedule. Below are three organizational depth charts for the 2013 Mets showing position players, bullpen, and starting rotation. There is some solid infield depth with Justin Turner, Jordany Valdespin, Zach Lutz, and Omar Quintanilla  and passable outfield depth — largely the result of a somewhat successful cattle-call of outfield candidates during spring training. Mike Baxter, Valdespin, Nieuwenhuis,  Den Dekker, and Brown, can certainly step up in a pinch. I particularly like Lutz and Brown who look like they can hold their own with the bat. The bullpen looks improved as well with three home grown relievers (four when Mejia returns) which is an encouraging indicator in light of  the notable correlation above.

Depth on the other hand, for both the Met bullpen the rotation is worrisome. Outside of Carson and a (hopefully) healthy Mejia there isn’t much else in reserve. The Met rotation, already down to four starters with Santana gone and Marcum suffering another setback, is also thin. After Wheeler, the Mets are looking at Laffey, McHugh and Schwinden. Granted, by mid season Wheeler, Harvey, and Niese may be enough to keep the ship afloat, but bullpen depth is another story — one that has historically been far more horrific.

This lack of depth may be the unfortunate artifact of a minor league farm that is not yet up to the task of acting as a true feeder system. The 2013 Mets will need some luck, and a good dose of health. They are better to be sure, they are generally deeper and more balanced than they’ve been in a while, and they are poised to bolster their roster with two prospects that have the look of impact players in D’Arnaud and Wheeler, but the Mets have yet to establish the sort of organizational pitching depth that a top 5 farm system might provide.

It is a tall and expensive order to rebuild a bullpen from free agency alone. Relievers are notoriously fickle and good ones are increasingly more scarce. The bulk of Met pitching talent — the capybara moving through the python — will begin reaching AA Binghampton sometime this season. That perk is at least another year away. The Mets may surprise if things break right, but until the critical mass of pitching talent they’ve been carefully accumulating reaches maturity they will continue to be vulnerable to the second half fade.

*Players in bold are on the 40 man roster.

There was lots of good will to go around Citi Field on Opening Day. And with good reason, as the Mets opened their season superbly. Just about everyone that saw the field contributed.

However, there were two large figures that were mostly missing – Ike Davis, and to a lesser extent, Lucas Duda. Davis went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts, while Duda was 0-for-2 with two walks and a strikeout. Both were the only two starters to go hitless, and although just one game, Davis’ four strikeouts were all too reminiscent of his start to the 2012 season.

But this isn’t in any way to pick on Davis and Duda. This was just one game, and is in no way indicative of how their 2013 numbers will look at season’s end. Instead, this is about how important they are going to be to this team, and how their success will go a long way toward determining the Mets success this year.

The Mets certainly do not look like an offensive powerhouse on paper. After David Wright, Daniel Murphy and hopefully Davis, there aren’t a whole lot of established offensive numbers. And the pitching staff is extraordinarily young. Extraordinarily exciting, yes, but also young.

The Mets are going to need the likes of Jon Niese, Matt Harvey and Dillon Gee to take the next step. And how’s this for unnecessary pressure. I think most Mets’ fans are already talking like Zach Wheeler is an established, successful part of the rotation when in fact he isn’t even on the team yet.

In other words, the Mets aren’t going to win a lot of 1-0 and 2-1 games. This pitching staff and bullpen are going to need offense.

That’s where Davis and Duda come in. Much of the Mets’ lineup is also unestablished   You don’t know what you are going to get out of the likes of Colin Cowgill and John Buck. Really, David Wright is the only Met with established credentials.  No one knows if Murphy will be able to stay healthy  the team is riding a hot bat in Marlon Byrd, and Ruben Tejada is coming off an awful spring.

I like Murphy and Tejada, and I also think Byrd was a great addition, you just can’t expect them to carry the team. It’s asking too much. Which is why Davis and Duda need to take the next step. A big season out of both would do so much toward solidifying the middle of the order. In addition, it would take the pressure off a young rotation and not force this team to ask the likes of Colin Cowgill to do too much.

Cowgill is a great find and has potential. But the Mets can’t expect four RBIs out of him nightly. This team isn’t good enough to have any gaping holes in its lineup.

Davis showed great promise in 2010, battled an injury-riddled 2011, and then started absurdly slowly in 2012 before finishing at .227-32-90. Ike needs to put together a complete season, batting average and all.

It was in 2011 that Duda showed great promise (.301-10-50) in only 100 games before falling off to .239-15-57 in 121 games last year.

This year needs to be their year. It’s time.