Mets at Cubs Series Preview

The Mets are playing terribly, and they need a team to beat up on. They have played three out of their last four series against teams above .500 and have suffered badly, losing six of their last seven games. Luckily, they play the Cubs this weekend, who, even though they might be better than the Mets, they are certainly easier to beat than the Pirates and Braves.

The Cubs are rebuilding. That’s very, very clear. Theo Epstein and the rest of Chicago’s front office is trying to build a team from the talented young core they have in place. So far, their plan seems to be working out well. Anthony Rizzo looks like he is a future star and Starlin Castro is shaping up to be a cornerstone piece at shortstop.

The Cubbie pitching staff is getting younger and with Jeff Samardzjia and Jackson to build their rotation around, they have a solid foundation for a playoff team. However, while the Cubs are building, they are still far off from being a playoff contender. They are currently 22nd in runs scored, and don’t have too many offensive threats. They have been carried almost exclusively by Rizzo and David DeJesus this season, rak=nking 24th in On-Base Percentage as a club. If it weren’t for those two, the offense would be one of, if not the worst in baseball. On the pitching side, their starting rotation has been solid, even without Matt Garza, but the bullpen has been awful. Aside from Kevin Gregg, who has been fantastic as Chicago’s closer as of late, they have received almost no consistent production out of the bullpen. Carlos Marmol has been himself (and therefore awful) and Kyuji Fujikawa has been unable to take his place. The Cubs as a team rank 22nd in baseball in bullpen ERA, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to get any better.

Long-term, while the Cubs are on the rise, they are still a very weak offensive team and have a long way to go before they become contenders. While two of the three pitching matchups this series don’t look great for the Mets, the series should be rather close.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey, RHP (56.1 IP, 256 ERA+, 4.43 K/BB) vs. Edwin Jackson, RHP (43.1 IP, 66 ERA+, 2.10 K/BB)

Jackson has failed to live up to expectations after signing a four-year, $52 million deal with the Cubs this winter. His 6.02 ERA is the worst on the Cubs among starters. He has been uncharacteristically wild, walking 4.2 batters per nine innings. Although some of his walk numbers from early on in his career are ugly, he has kept them largely under control the past few seasons. At least until now. He has failed to go more than six innings in a start this season. In his last start on May 11, he gave up two runs on four hits in 5.1 innings against the Nationals, walking two and striking out three.

Game 2:  Jeremy Hefner, RHP (41 IP, 80 ERA+, 1.69 K/BB) vs. Scott Feldman RHP (42.2 IP, 156 ERA+, 1.94 K/BB)

Feldman, 30, is your typical journey man starting pitcher. He pitched with Texas for eight years, in which he had a 4.81 ERA in 204 appearances. He has been much better since coming to the Cubs. He has put together a string of four outstanding starts, including his outing on April 26 against the Padres in which he gave up only two runs on three hits in nine innings, striking out 12 and walking a single batter. In his last start on May 12, he allowed one run on three hits in five innings against the Nationals.

Game 3: Dillon Gee, RHP (39.2 IP, 60 ERA+, 1.69 K/BB) vs. Travis Wood, LHP (53.1 IP, 195 ERA+, 2.12 K/BB)

Despite posting mediocre numbers from 2010 through 2012, Wood has been incredible this season. He leads the team with a 2.03 ERA in eight starts and has given up only 5.4 hits per nine innings. What has been the key to his success? Most likely luck. Wood hasn’t changed anything significant in terms of his approach and none of his pitches have gotten significantly better. However, his .193 BABIP makes it seem like he might come down to Earth soon. Wood shut out the Rockies over seven innings in his last start, allowing just two hits.

Series Notes

The Mets snapped their six-game losing streak with a 5-2 win at St. Louis yesterday…New York is 3-7 in its last 10 games…The Mets are 6-11 on the road this year.

In addition to this three-game series vs. the Cubs, the Mets will return to Chicago later this year to play the White Sox in a two-game series (June 25-26).

The Mets will play four straight day games (yesterday in St. Louis and three in Chicago) for the first time since September 3-6, 2010 (three in Chicago and one in Washington)…New York is 7-10 in day games…David Wright is batting .379 during day games, the fourth-highest average in the National League.

Daniel Murphy went 4-4 with two doubles and a walk on Thursday…The four hits tied his career-high…It was the eighth time he’s collected four hits in a game, last on April 12 at Minnesota…Murphy is 10-for-his-last-16 (.625) over his last four games and currently has a five-game hitting streak (11-20, .550) …Murphy is batting .394 on the road this season, the best mark in the NL and is second in the majors.

The Mets scored five runs yesterday but have scored three or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games and in 13 of their last 19 games…New York is averaging 4.34 runs per game, the fifth-most in the NL and the 14th-most in the majors.

New York is hitting .238 (15-63) with runners in scoring position over its last 10 games…The Mets are fifth in the NL and 12th in the majors with a .266 (76-286) batting average with RISP…The club has 11 home runs in such situations, tied for the fifth most in the majors…John Buck has four of those home runs, tied for second in the majors…

David Wright is hitting .441 (15-34) with RISP, the fifth-best mark in the National League…As a team the Mets have stranded 256 runners, including eight yesterday, tied for 25th in the majors.

John Buck had one RBI yesterday and is tied for third in the NL with 31 RBI…Buck’s 31 RBI lead all catchers…San Francisco’s Buster Posey is second with 22 RBI.

Marlon Byrd is 4-for-his-last 8 (.500)…He is seven hits shy of 1,100 for his career…Byrd has at least one hit in seven of eight games this month (10-27, .370) with two home runs and six RBI.

Bobby Parnell has three wins and two saves this month…Parnell has hurled 6.0 scoreless frames in May…He leads all relievers with four wins and is eighth in the NL with a 1.04 ERA (min. 17.0 innings).

I’m sure many of us are excited to see the Mets’ catcher of the future, Travis d’Arnaud, take the field this spring.

Sure, he likely won’t head north with the big club right away, but all reports indicate that he is the real deal.

I don’t know about you, but I am definitely seeking the reassurance that d’Arnaud has what it takes to be a Major League catcher. Luckily, I received that reassurance a few days ago.

I had a conversation with Anthony Iapoce, an Astoria native and the new special assistant to the general manager of the Chicago Cubs.

He spent the last few seasons as the roving minor league hitting coordinator for the Toronto Blue Jays, and that’s where he was able to provide expert analysis on d’Arnaud.

“Travis is a gamer and a great teammate,” Iapoce said. “He can handle the bat and knows how to play the game.”

These are certainly encouraging words from someone that has seen him play. Many of the reports we’ve all read on d’Arnaud were from the Mets’ beat reporters, who likely will be seeing him play live for the first time this spring.

Iapoce went on to say that the young catcher is a leader and a rare talent as an offensive-minded catcher. He said the Mets are very lucky, and fans will be excited to see this kid develop.

One concern that Iapoce mentioned, however, is that d’Arnaud has spent time on the disabled list in each of the past few seasons, with his major injury – a torn posterior cruciate ligament last summer – shutting him down for several months.

If d’Arnaud can stay healthy, he’s going to be fun to watch and will hopefully contribute to some competitive Mets’ teams in the near future.

Certainly, Iapoce’s words have me really excited to see the 23-year-old stud in action.

Travis d’Arnaud jumped to the top of the Mets prospect list.

Until the trade that sent RA Dickey to the Blue Jays for prominent prospects Travis d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard, it sure didn’t look like a team that was rebuilding. The Dickey trade was the first action taken by general manager Sandy Alderson that signaled that the team may be undergoing a rebuilding phase.

Unfortunately, due to circumstances, the Dickey trade was not really so much a part of the rebuilding process as it was picking the pocket of a team (the Blue Jays) that is putting all of their eggs in one basket in 2013.Trading a prominent major league commodity for minor league prospects is generally the tell-tale sign that a team is entering a rebuilding phase. The question is, should the Mets be rebuilding from the ground up?

Rebuilding is a term that we generally hear coming from places like Kansas City and Pittsburgh. They always seem like they are rebuilding, don’t they? That’s because once a team takes on a rebuilding project, unless everything clicks, meaning the prospects all gel and hit their stride at the same time, there will be setbacks. Baseball prospects are about as unpredictable as lightning strikes. There is no such thing as a sure thing. Because of that, a rebuilding phase can sometimes take years to complete.

Another reason why these rebuilding teams always seem to be rebuilding is because they are generally from small markets. With little money to spend on free-agents, they have no choice but to rebuild year after year and hope that prospects pan out. The problem is, when they finally do pan out, they often lose the players due to the inability to pay them once they hit free-agency for the first time.

What ends up happening? Large market teams have no reason to build their minor league systems because they know that the prospects that are developed by the small market teams will eventually be out of their price range. They just sit back and wait to write them out a fat check. It makes you wonder if the small market team decided to start spending some money and keeping their prospects, how the power would shift in the major leagues if the large market teams could no longer subsidize these prospects.

Now the question is: Are the Mets truly rebuilding?

Let’s get one thing out in the open – large market teams don’t rebuild, they replenish. There is a major difference. Replenishing entails filling in gaps in the organization; rebuilding entails starting from scratch. The Mets should not be rebuilding, they should be replenishing.

They want to make everyone think they are rebuilding because if a team claims to be rebuilding, they think it gives them a free pass for stinking up the joint. Well that may fly in Pittsburgh. It may have flown in Kansas City. But in New York, that just isn’t going to fly.

Not to mention, this has to be the absolute worst rebuilding in the history of rebuilding. Rebuilding teams don’t sign players to $138 million contracts; they trade them. Rebuilding teams don’t let 23 of their draft picks to go unsigned; they sign them.

Unless this is some new hybrid type of rebuilding process where you don’t trade your biggest trade chip and you don’t sign draft picks, it is not rebuilding. Do you want to know what it is? It’s an excuse for not spending money. Period.

The Chicago Cubs are another team that is said to be in a rebuilding process. However, the difference between the Cubs and the Mets is that their front office has been busy all off-season signing players in an attempt to improve in 2013. They’re rebuilding and yet spending money to improve in the interim. Who would’ve thought it was possible?

What have the Mets done this winter? They have accomplished the impossible feat of being the only team to not sign a major league free-agent.

The Mets are not rebuilding, they are stalling. They were hoping the Mayans were right. But now we are in 2013 and they don’t know what to do.

So I was thrilled in 1997 when interleague play was officially introduced, with 15 or so games on the schedule.  It hasn’t varied much since then, though some natural rivalries like Mets/Yankees or Cubs/White Sox or Giants/A’s play a home and home series and otherwise the teams rotate each year.  And I’m not sure why, but I look forward to interleague play each year like a kid looking forward to Christmas.  No joke.  I love seeing teams that don’t normally play each other, play each other.

But here’s the thing.  I think at this point, they should add more interleague games to the schedule.  Do we really have to play the teams in our division 18 times each?  That’s almost half the schedule, and there’s something about watching the Mets play in Miami three times a year to 5,000 people that makes me want to poke my eyes out.

I say, cut those in-division games to 12 each, and you’re saving 24 games to play other opponents, which means you can just about play every American League team at least once a year.  Would any of you really rather see all those divisional games instead of that?  You’d have the chance to see, either at Citi Field or on TV (or of course, a road trip), almost every player in the majors at one point or another.

Of course, we all know too well that the suits in baseball move at the speed of a turtle that stepped in molasses.  If they won’t add instant replay on ground balls, they surely won’t add more interleague games.  But many of us thought we’d never see interleague play, so there you have it.  Who knows?

Meanwhile, it sure is nice watching the Mets these days against any team.  First place is now within reach.  Let’s go Mets!

Had the deal of went through here is how things would have panned out:

New York Mets Trade: Luis Castillo
Tampa Bay Rays Trade: Pat Burrell
Chicago Cubs Trade: Milton Bradley
Los Angeles Angels Trade: Gary Matthews Jr.

New York Mets Receive: Gary Matthews Jr.
Tampa Bay Rays Receive: Milton Bradley
Chicago Cubs Receive: Luis Castillo
Los Angeles Angels Receive (Presumably): Pat Burrell

However, as Stark points out the deal fell threw for an unknown reason. I’m merely speculating here, but when dealing with such large and huge contracts it probably came down to money.

Last season with the Angels, Matthews hit .250 with only four home runs and 50 RBIs in 316 at-bats. Those numbers are rather unimpressive to say the least and to be honest I think the Mets are better off holding onto Castillo.

But of course, the Mets never make things easy.  Four straight wins later, two against a team they are chasing for the wild card, Colorado, and there is an air of optimism again.  We’re still 5.5 games behind Colorado and San Francisco, with Florida, Atlanta, Chicago, Houston and Milwaukee all there to climb over.  But this thing is far from over, and who knows what the likes of Roy Halladay could do for this team?  Heck, if the Mets did somehow manage to win the wild card, they would have to have a guy like Halladay to pair with Johan Santana in a short series with the Phillies, who now have Cliff Lee behind Cole Hamels.  But it’s hard to imagine the Mets even having the goods on the farm to land a Halladay. 

So what does Omar do now?  As crazy as this sounds, the games tonight and tomorrow afternoon are probably going to determine if something happens before Friday’s trade deadline.  Lose both games, and we might be selling.  Win both and we could be buyers.  Split the games and it could go either way. 

What do you all think?