Daniel Murphy had four hits and Jon Niese pitched a gem as the New York Mets beat the St. Louis Cardinals 5-2 to salvage the final game of the series and avoid the four-game sweep.

The Mets got on the board in the third when Jordany Valdespin ignited a two-run rally with a perfect drag bunt in the third and then scored when the red-hot Murphy lined double to score Spin and then came around to put the Mets up 2-1 after David Wright drove him home with a single to right.

After another double by Murphy in the sixth, the Mets would score two more runs on an RBI-double by Wright and a sac-fly by Lucas Duda. Catcher John Buck broke out of slump with an RBI-single in the eighth for the Mets’ fifth run.

Meanwhile on the mound, the Niese we used to know was back and he was dealing. After allowing 15 runs in his last two starts, Niese worked on his mechanics and rediscovered his fastball and curve, using both pitches to great effect to silence the Cardinals offense. The southpaw tossed 7.1 innings, allowing just two runs on six hits while walking two and striking out three. It was great to see him bounce back and hopefully this is the beginning of something good for Niese.

Niese gave way with two on and one out in the eighth inning, but in came Brandon Lyon, who induced an inning-ending double play to escape any damage. Bobby Parnell closed it out in the ninth to earn his fourth save of the season.

Ike Davis continues to struggle and went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts to earn the golden sombrero. Davis is hitless in his last 22 at-bats and his batting average is at a four-week low of .157 for the season. Terry Collins says he’s sticking with him.

The Mets now head to Chicago for a weekend series with the Cubs. Matt Harvey will oppose Edwin Jackson in a 2:20 PM matinee. Lets Go Mets!

The legend of Mike Baxter continues to grow as he came through in the clutch for the Mets yet again on Thursday night, with his second walk-off hit in three games!

This was a low scoring affair for the Mets due to Dillon Gee dancing out of trouble in each of his first five innings on the mound tonight, without allowing a run through them. He started the sixth for the Mets and allowed two singles and hit a batter to load the bases before he was removed in favor of Brandon Lyon, who allowed a game-tying sacrifice fly.

The only run support the Mets were able to provide Gee while he was on the mound was a sacrifice fly via Marlon Byrd in the second. They would rally to score in the seventh, via a smoked RBI double by Ike Davis, but LaTroy Hawkins gave up a solo shot to Pedro Alvarez in the top of the eighth, which tied the game up…again.

But fear not, Mets fans, as Mike Baxter, heroic wings and all, drilled an RBI single off Pirates closer Jason Grilli to win the game in exciting fashion for the Mets.

Say what you want about Baxter, but when you think about all the work he has put in for us, he has definitely become a fan favorite.

Lets Go Mets!

When you glance at this morning’s Mets pitching leaders, you see two names that belong in Matt Harvey and Bobby Parnell. Each of them have been nothing short of phenomenal in their roles of closer and staff ace. But just below them is a name nobody expected much from this season – that is unless you read my preseason feature on Scott Rice – the 31-year old rookie who has become a cult figure here on MMO.

The left-handed reliever has performed at a level unseen by a southpaw since Perpetual Pedro was in his prime during the Omar Minaya legacy.

Rice has been a Godsend in the bullpen both for his effectiveness and reliability, but more than that he’s been the bullpen’s most durable reliever, leading the team with 16 appearances and 14.2 innings pitched. For a Mets bullpen that is ranked 29th in the majors with a 5.09 ERA, Rice along with Parnell have given the team their all and have been the most steadfast performers in an otherwise ill-performing bullpen.

Gone already are Greg Burke, Josh Edgin and Aaron Laffey. Brandon Lyon and Robert Carson may soon be the next to go. Jeurys Familia who I felt earned a job out of Spring Training, is finally here and so far the early results have been encouraging.

But getting back to Rice, Mike Kerwick of The Record had a great profile of him this morning on NJ.com. He goes back to his formative years and gives some more backstory to what has already been one of the better storylines to this Mets season.

“He’s been terrific,” said Mets manager Terry Collins. “Extremely durable. When you talk to him, this is what he’s been waiting for his whole life, this opportunity.”

Kerwick shares a fascinating story about Rice that only furthers my respect for this unique player who toiled in the minors for 14 years before finally making his major league debut this season with the Mets. Most players would have quit and hung up their spikes after eight or nine years, but Rice remained determined and set on making it to the majors against all odds.

Rice bounced around – five major league organizations, 18 minor league teams – before he finally caught on with the Mets last month. He threw his first major league pitch on April 1, almost 14 years after he was drafted.

In the darkest moments of those 14 years, Rice would place calls to his father. Dennis knew a thing or two about watching a baseball dream implode. Rice’s father blew out his shoulder years ago, back when he was a middle infielder for the University of Southern California.

“He’s the main reason why I kept playing,” Rice said. “At times I hated it. But he kept pushing me, telling me, ‘Hey, you’ve got to get out there, you’ve got to keep doing this, you’ve got to keep doing that. You’ve got to make these phone calls to teams.’

Rice was very instrumental in the 7-6 win against the Marlins that put an end to the team’s six-game losing streak, the longest such streak in two seasons.

With the Mets barely holding on to their one-run lead, Collins turned to Rice to get a critical out with the tying run on third in the eighth inning. Rice came in and induced an inning-ending grounder from the pesky leadoff hitter, Juan Pierre. Once again, Rice rose to the occasion without breaking a sweat.

“He’s been very, very good,” Collins said. “He realizes when he keeps the ball down and throws strikes, he gets ground balls. So far we’ve caught them.”

There haven’t been too many great bright spots to the Mets’ season thus far, but Scott Rice is certainly one of them, and it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.

Despite the incredible effort by Jeremy Hefner on Tuesday night, the Mets were unable to get just three more outs as a ninth inning meltdown capped off by a Brandon Lyon wild pitch handed the Marlins their second straight walk-off victory against the Amazin’s and their first series win of the season.

Surprisingly enough, the Mets have become quite used to the demoralizing oddity known as the walk-off wild pitch. In fact, last night was the third time in four seasons that Flushing’s Finest have allowed the game-winning run to score on a pitch to the backstop.

On May 14 of the 2010 season, Johan Santana was on the mound in a premiere matchup with then-Marlins ace Josh Johnson. Santana went seven innings allowing just one unearned run on six hits and seven strikeouts. He left for a pinch-hitter with the game tied at one. After pitching a scoreless eighth, reliever Fernando Nieve took the hill to pitch a perfect ninth to send the game into extra innings. After getting Jorge Cantu to fly to left for the first out of the tenth, Nieve walked Cody Ross and quickly allowed a Ronny Paulino single to put Ross at third. Then on the first pitch to Dan Uggla, Nieve bounced it to the plate past Rod Barajas as Ross raced home to win it for the Marlins. The walk-off wild pitch would be the first victory for the Fish in what would be a four game sweep of the Mets.

Fast forward two years to July of 2012… Jon Niese is having a heck of a game against the Nationals Ross Detwiler. They both exit after seven, Niese surrendering one run and punching out eight, Detwiler spotless, giving the Nats a 1-0 advantage. They would go up 2-0 after a Steve Lombardozzi RBI double. Comes the top of the ninth, the Mets put up a three spot to go ahead 3-2. However the lead would be short lived as Bobby Parnell would blow the save, allowing the Nats to tie it and send it to extra innings. Josh Thole doubled to drive in Daniel Murphy and give the Amazin’s their second lead in as many innings. Tim Byrdak came on to close out the tenth and after a game tying, RBI triple to the rookie sensation Bryce Harper, he walked the bases loaded and was lifted for Pedro Beato. Beato, on a 1-2 pitch to Tyler Moore, threw a breaking ball that went right past Josh Thole, allowing Ryan Zimmerman to slide home and win it for the Nats by a score of 5-4.

Then we have last night. A suddenly hot Jeremy Hefner came in to finish off a shutout, and came away with a loss as both the tying and go-ahead runs were charged to the 27-year old despite a meltdown by Brandon Lyon capped off by a wild pitch of his own that bounced off the glove of Anthony Recker and ricocheted towards the home dugout.

Before this recent stretch, the last time the Mets lost a ballgame on a walk-off wild pitch dates back all the way to 1981 when Mike Marshall let one fly at Houston. You have to go all the way back to the beginning of the Reagan administration for that one! Meanwhile all three of these most recent “wild” endings have occurred under the same commander in chief. 

Not a theme the Mets would like to continue, however with the quality–or lack there of–of arms they continue to acquire for the ‘pen, what can you expect? Sure Brandon Lyon is supposed to be a solid set-up man, however that hasn’t been the case up to this point. You get what you pay for; you get out of it what you put in. When you don’t go and add significant arms for innings seven through nine and beyond, losses such as those mentioned above are going to happen.

Bob Klapisch of The Record, mirrors my post from Monday that the Terry Collins watch has begun:

The countdown on Terry Collins began on the first day of pitchers and catchers and nothing so far has made it any easier to believe he’ll be back with the Mets in 2014. Of course, Collins has handled his lame-duck status with grace and maturity — he’s an honest guy, good with people — but that hasn’t stopped Sandy Alderson from letting his manager continue to drift away from the mother ship.

Collins, no dummy, knows he would’ve already received a vote of confidence, even in private, if Alderson and Jeff Wilpon were entirely sold on his body of work. Both men know what job security — or its absence — does to a manager’s standing in the clubhouse. Without a commitment from ownership, Collins looks like a short-timer on a bad team, a latter-day George Bamberger. The current six-game losing streak, including embarrassing back-to-back losses to the Marlins, doesn’t help his cause, either.

Collins seems to be making one bad decision after another during this current losing streak. It’s hard to ignore his bad calls and the become more glaring especially with the team losing 10 of their last 13 games.

Last night, in a critical save situation – in a game the Mets needed so desperately to win – he called upon Brandon Lyon while his regular closer Bobby Parnell was armed and ready to go.

Lets just say that it didn’t work out too well for the Mets…

Reportedly, Parnell was pissed off after the game and was angry that he didn’t get the chance to preserve the win for Jeremy Hefner who pitched the game of his life and deserved a better fate.

Tick, tick, tick, tick….

Original Post 4/29

After getting off to a 7-4 start to the season, the Mets have now lost nine of their last 12 games and aside from when Matt Harvey and Jon Niese are on the hill, you don’t get the sense that the Mets will win that day.

Part of the problem was a middle to back end of the rotation that was ill-conceived from the beginning. The ever so reliable R.A. Dickey was replaced with Shaun Marcum who has already missed nearly a month of the season. Not surprising coming off an injury plagued season in 2012.

The bullpen, which has been among league’s worst for two years in a row, is in familiar territory once again and sporting the highest ERA in the league and the second worst mark in baseball. While Bobby Parnell has made advances in the closer role, the league is batting .324 against LaTroy Hawkins, Josh Edgin and Glen Burke have already been cut, and Scott Atchison, Brandon Lyon and Robert Carson each have ERAs over 4.00.

The outfield, which many thought would be better than last year’s version, is producing at the bottom of the MLB barrel again. Collin Cowgill is batting a gritty .169, and Marlon Byrd is providing a veteran presence to go with his .235 average. Those two were announced as everyday outfielders on Opening Day and experiment that lasted all of three games. Adding to the folly is the scrappy Mike Baxter and his .229 average. After a solid start, Lucas Duda has been mired in a slump and is batting .233 in his last ten games. Jordany Valdespin is probably the Mets’ best option, but is still relegated to bench and spot duty. He didn’t even merit a start a day after a game winning grand slam.

You have a mixed bag in the infield with David Wright holding up his end of the bargain with a .309 average and a .506 slugging, and Daniel Murphy continues to defy his skeptics offensively and defensively. Ike Davis has been a sore spot all season long and as I said two weeks ago it’s time to bring up Josh Satin who leads the organization with a 1.10 OPS and platoon him at first. Ruben Tejada hasn’t cut it defensively or offensively and yet somehow he frequently finds himself batting leadoff.

This team has gaping holes everywhere. Today on MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone provided a glimmer of hope:

“A Zack Wheeler and a Travis d’Arnaud there, an Ike Davis hot streak there, and things can turn around quick.”

I don’t see that changing the climate in Flushing. The Mets were at their worst last season when Davis got hot, Wheeler can’t seem to find the strike zone in Vegas, and D’Arnaud has missed nearly the first month of the season on the DL.

Yesterday on Twitter, I posted this message:

Mets won’t do anything to draw negative attention before All Star Game. I think Collins will be chopped after that if things don’t improve.

— Mets Merized Online (@MetsMerized) April 28, 2013

I put much of the blame on yesterday’s loss on Terry Collins. His decision to remove Niese when he did was a terrible one, and the worst part was what he said afterward:

“I knew they were going to put Howard in,” Collins said. “Scott Atchison‘s breaking ball is really difficult to hit. I don’t care who it is.”

He knew Mets killer Ryan Howard would come in and yet he proceeded as Scott Atchison is the second coming of Dennis Eckersley.

He also replaced Juan Lagares with Collin Cowgill and as one reader pointed out, that Howard two-run double probably would have been caught with the speedier and more agile rookie who Collins himself said was better than Matt den Dekker defensively.

Is it too early to call for Collins’ head?

Probably, but while we can fix the bullpen, the outfield, the infield or the backend of the rotation, you can’t fix stupid. As I said, the Mets won’t do anything now with the All Star game closing in at Citi Field, but there’s a reason why Sandy Alderson opted to let Terry Collins go into this season without an extension and as a lame duck manager.

Is it time for some Wally Ball at Citi Field?

After yesterday’s 2-1 ninth inning loss, David Wright didn’t blame the bad call at third base and instead pointed the finger of blame for the loss on himself and the rest of the offense.

“Sometimes the calls go your way. Sometimes they don’t. What we need to do a better job of is offensively going out there and scoring more runs. We can’t expect to win games 1-0. Offensively we need to do a better job … It seems like the better teams, they go through a rut like this and it only lasts a series or two. We can’t allow it to kind of consume us and take over for a week, two weeks. We’ve got to snap out of it. That starts offensively and going out there and having good at-bats.”

As I wrote in my recap last night, Anthony Recker should have fired the ball to first base to get the easy out and keep the winning run from getting on base. Seems like Recker understands now that he screwed up:

“He dropped it pretty much right in front of the plate for me,” Recker said. “I knew we needed to get an out. I just tried to make a play I probably shouldn’t have tried to make. We talked about it before the bunt — ‘get an out.’ But he laid it in front of the plate. My instincts told me to go to third. Obviously the throw was a little bit high. If it was a good throw we might have had him. I probably don’t need to make that play. I just need to get an out.”

Recker’s passed ball before the play at third base also had a lot to do with how things unravelled as that was what got Chris Coghlan to third base in the first place. Maybe subconsciously the Mets catcher was thinking he could erase that ply by getting him out, but regardless it set up the chain of events that eventually led to the loss.

As for Wright, what he says is true, The team needs to score more runs. By my count they’ve scored 11 runs in their last six games. That’s not going to translate into many wins no matter how good your starting pitching is.

But beside the lack of runs, the Mets bullpen must shoulder much of the blame. They can’t seem to hold a lead of any kind including a recent four-run lead. Reportedly, Bobby Parnell was pissed that he wasn’t called upon for the save opportunity last night. He of course had the blown save the night before and has registered just two saves on the season thus far. He has a good beef. Brandon Lyon was just plain awful and as I wrote yesterday, he has been for the last two weeks. Hope he treated Jeremy Hefner to a great meal after the game as he cashed in his $100K bonus check he picked up before the game.

Wow, that one hurt. What a punch in the gut…

The Miami Marlins came back in the bottom of the ninth to beat the Mets 2-1 in stunning fashion as the winning run scored on a Brandon Lyon wild pitch. The loss is the sixth straight defeat for the Mets, matching their longest losing streak of the 2012 season and it’s only April 30.

I feel more worse about Jeremy Hefner being denied the win, than for the incredible way we lost this game. The kid pitched his heart out.

For eight scoreless innings, Hefner was pitching the game of his life. He held the Marlins to just three hits and no walks while striking out eight and was three outs away from a complete game shutout. But then it all came crashing down in the ninth.

It all started to unravel after a leadoff single by pinch-hitter Chris Coghlan in the ninth. Coghlan advanced to second on a passed ball by catcher Anthony Recker. Juan Pierre then lays down a perfect bunt, but rather than taking the easy out at first base, Recker fielded the ball, rolled the dice, and fired to third. Safe!

It was a bad call according to the stop-action video, but the ump wasn’t buying David Wright‘s argument that Coghlan’s foot came off the bag. However, lets not pretend that the runner didn’t beat the throw by a mile. For a split second his foot did come off the bag, but unfortunately it was Wright’s own leg that blocked that view from the umpire. Also, the throw by Recker was way too high. A better throw could have made a bigger difference and produced a more favorable outcome for the Mets.

So now instead of a runner at third and one out, you now have the tying run at third and the winning run on first with nobody out.

A call to the bullpen… Enter reliever Brandon Lyon. The next batter, Donovan Solano, quickly greeted Lyon with an RBI single to tie the game. Following an intentional walk to Placido Polanco to load them up, Lyon uncorks a wild pitch to send Pierre scampering home on with the game-winning run. Game over.

Ouch…

Look… The fact of the matter is that the Mets scored only one run and had only four hits. How are you going to win with offensive numbers like that?

The lone Mets run came on a sac fly by Recker to drive home Daniel Murphy who had gotten on with a double and advanced to third. That was all the fireworks the Mets could conjure up against the equally as brilliant Marlins starter Kevin Slowey.

Wow… The New York Mets – Always discovering new and shocking ways to lose a game. For the second straight night, the Mets were three outs away from victory and blew the game to the last place Marlins.

What a terrible loss and one that now has them five games under .500 and already 6.5 games back and just two games away from last place in the NL East.

What else can we do? Everybody’s struggling right now – the bullpen, the offense, the whole damn team. Nothing will be worse than getting swept by an awful Marlins team who don’t even have their best player Giancarlo Stanton.

Somehow they will have to pick themselves up after another gut-wrenching defeat and try to salvage the final game of the series tomorrow afternoon. Dillon Gee (1-4, 5.96 ERA) opposes left-hander Wade LeBlanc (0-4, 6.20) in an early 12:40 PM start.

His contract stipulates that Lyon is to receive roster bonuses of $100,000-$125,000 roughly once a month.

The 34-year-old righty who signed a  a guaranteed $750,000 deal with the Mets before the season, received his first $100K bonus check by making the Opening Day roster. But then this morning, Lyon took in his second check, also worth $100,000.

In his last ten appearances, Lyon has allowed five earned runs in 9.0 innings pitched with a 5.00 ERA during that span.

Lyon’s ERA for the season has risen to 4.35 in 12 appearances after a rough two weeks. That ranks last in the Mets bullpen among relievers with five or more appearances.

Overall, the Mets bullpen has a 5.29 ERA which ranks 29th out of all 30 MLB teams.

Updated 3/22

I wanted to share Adam Rubin’s projected Opening Day roster which is not too dissimilar to what I projected.

Rotation: Jon Niese, Shaun Marcum, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee and Jeremy Hefner.

Bullpen: Bobby Parnell, Brandon Lyon, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison, Josh Edgin, Pedro Feliciano and Greg Burke.

Infield: Ike Davis, Justin Turner, David Wright, Ruben Tejada and John Buck.

Outfield: Lucas Duda, Collin Cowgill and Jordany Valdespin.

Bench: Marlon Byrd, Mike Baxter, Anthony Recker, Omar Quintanilla and Zach Lutz.

I’m not sure about Lutz, but I do hope he makes the cut….

Original Post 3/18

Beat writers took to Twitter after today’s game and began posting their projected Opening Day lineups. With the reality now setting in that Johan Santana and David Wright could start the season on the DL, here is my projection for our opening day lineup as well as our 25 man roster. My notes follow.

Opening Day Lineup

1. Jordany Valdespin, 2B
2. Collin Cowgill, CF
3. Marlon Byrd, RF
4. Ike Davis, 1B
5. Lucas Duda, LF
6. John Buck, C
7. Justin Turner, 3B
8. Ruben Tejada, SS
9. Jonathon Niese, P

Opening Day Roster

C : John Buck
1B: Ike Davis
2B: Jordany Valdespin
SS: Ruben Tejada
3B: Justin Turner
OF: Lucas Duda
OF: Collin Cowgill
OF: Marlon Byrd

Bench: Zach Lutz
Bench: Mike Baxter
Bench: Omar Quintanilla
Bench: Brandon Hicks
Bench: Anthony Recker

SP: Jonathon Niese
SP: Shaun Marcum
SP: Matt Harvey
SP: Dillon Gee
SP: Jeremy Hefner

RP: Bobby Parnell 
RP: Brandon Lyon
RP: Scott Atchison
RP: LaTroy Hawkins
RP: Josh Edgin
RP: Greg Burke
RP: Pedro Feliciano or Robert Carson

DL: Frank Francisco, Johan Santana, David Wright, Daniel Murphy

Notes:

It looks like any shot that Kirk Nieuwenhuis had of making the team is now gone. It was my hunch all along. Matt den Dekker is another one who won’t be on the OD roster and as I’ve said before, until he can increase his contact rate we won’t see him unless the injury bug hits an already shaky outfield.

I have Mike Baxter making the team, but not because he earned the spot, the Mets have no depth and other options are hitting even worse than he is. Zach Lutz will see some time in the outfield in addition to third base. I don’t think Justin Turner is long for an everyday job and when Daniel Murphy and David Wright come back, I wonder if Turner gets waived.

As I’ve maintained, Travis d’Arnaud will not be on the roster come April 1 despite some scuttlebutt about that yesterday. Like I told another Met blogger yesterday, sandy Alderson does not make player moves based on the whims of fans. There is a methodology to everything that he does.

My sleeper to make the team was Jeremy Hefner back in early February and now he’s not only on the roster, but in the actual starting rotation itself. Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia will start the season in Triple-A they just don’t look like they are ready for the challenge. Not yet.

Still not sold that Alderson will go with just one lefty in the bullpen. The last two years haven’t worked out for the Mets when they went that route and I’d be shocked if they did it now with even worse right-handed crossover relievers than before.

We’ll see how close I came in 13 days when the Mets open the season against the San Diego Padres. You can get tickets to the game at Seat Crunch for the best seats and lowest prices.

It is too soon to say much definitive about Terry Collins’ 2013 Mets other than it has the makings of a long year. Twice yesterday afternoon, the frustrated Mets’ manager answered seemingly innocuous questions about his roster with a curt, “It is March 8.’’

PARNELL CLOSING IN:

One silver thread out of Friday’s 3-2 loss to Detroit was reliever Bobby Parnell, who pitched a 1-2-3 sixth as he’s settling in to the closer job with Frank Francisco destined to open the season on the disabled list with a sore right elbow.

Parnell could always throw hard – sometimes in triple digits – but had trouble with command of his secondary pitches. That wasn’t the case against the Tigers.

“My curveball is working really well,’’ said Parnell. “Last year, I was inconsistent with my curveball. Today I was able to able to throw it for strikes early in the count.’’

Parnell was aggressive and attacked the hitters, and perhaps most importantly threw his curveball in counts where the hitter would normally be expecting a fastball.

“His breaking ball has really improved,’’ Collins said. “I loved his demeanor. He’s going after hitters like he knows he’s going to get them out.’’

Parnell will face another test when he goes back-to-back tomorrow.

“You want to build up your arm strength in spring training,’’ Parnell said. “It is just a mild test to tell you where you are.’’

It isn’t as mild for 40-year-old LaTroy Hawkins, who is trying to hook on in the bullpen. Hawkins said he threw 25 pitches to the five batters he faced. He gave up two hits and struck out one.

Hawkins wouldn’t say he was happy, or even satisfied, for that matter.

“I got a lot of work in today,’’ Hawkins said. “It wasn’t bad.’’

Convincing.

GEE FEELING IT:

Dillon Gee wanted to fine-tune his mechanics and was only partially satisfied with the results, giving up a run on one hit is four innings.

Not to his liking were three walks.

“Other than the walks, I felt better than (my last start, March 3 against Miami at) Jupiter,’’ Gee said. “I feel close to clicking. Maybe it’s a sixth sense, but I feel pretty close.’’

Gee was bailed out by a double play in the second, something Collins liked because he didn’t let the moment get away from him.

“He couldn’t locate all his pitches,’’ Collins said. “But, he kept his composure.’’

VALDESPIN MAKES IMPRESSION:

Jordany Valdespin hurried out of the Mets’ clubhouse with two cheeseburgers on a paper plate. He didn’t stop to talk about his homer that gave the Mets a brief 2-1 lead in the seventh.

Valdespin, who is hitting .333 this spring, started in left and batted second. The previous game he hit leadoff.

Valdespin is nothing if not supremely confident, perhaps overly so. He left the clubhouse wearing a bright red cap backwards with the lettering JV1.

Not hard to figure out what it means.

“He likes to play. He likes to be on the stage,’’ Collins said. “He plays with some flair.’’ Then, after a pause, Collins added: “There’s nothing wrong with that.’’

SIGHTS OF SPRING:

One of my favorite things about spring training is seeing players I enjoyed watching as a kid.

Keith Hernandez and Ron Darling were at Tradition Field Thursday calling the game on television. At lunch Friday was Jim Fregosi – whom Mets remember as the player acquired for Nolan Ryan – and Hall of Famer Al Kaline.

It’s the same in every camp as the alumni visit, many as guest instructors. The Yankees and Dodgers especially like to boast their tradition.

CLASSIC LOOK:

I’ve always thought the Tigers’ home whites are one of the best uniforms in sports. White with dark navy numbering with the old English “D’’ a stunningly simple, but elegant look.

Along with the Tigers there are the home uniforms of the Dodgers, Yankees and Red Sox. I do like the Mets’ pinstripes with the team name in script.

The simpler the better when it comes to uniforms and caps. That often makes the most powerful statement.

METS NOTEBOOK:

Travis d’Arnaud was one of three Mets hit by Luke Putkonen. He had his right elbow wrapped with an ice back but said he was all right. … The Mets’ offense continued to flounder with five hits. The Mets left 11 and went 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. They also struck out 14 times. … Tigers manager Jim Leyland told Detroit reporters he doesn’t intend to retire. … Jeremy Hefner, Brandon Lyon and Parnell are among those scheduled to pitch Saturday against Houston. Shaun Marcum, Hawkins and Pedro Feliciano will work Sunday. The Mets are back in Lakeland Monday with Jonathan Niese starting against Justin Verlander.

COMING SOON:

Me and Joe D. will be combining our efforts beginning Monday as we decide what our Opening Day Mets roster will look like. We don’t agree on many of the decisions, but we spend a great deal of time arguing our points everyday and think it would be a great dynamic for the site. He’s talked me into doing a week by week retelling of the 1973 Mets season which we both feel gets very little playtime considering it went all the way down to Game 7 of the World Series. For those of you who weren’t around back then, get ready to relive the all the excitement of one of the most underrated great Mets seasons of all time. Joe will chime in as well as he calls that season his Mets baptism and the start of his Agony and Ecstasy. It should be fun.

After mugging with several friends on the Venezuelan WBC team, Santana long-tossed in the outfield, and followed that with several pitches off the mound from where he fielded bunts.

The timetable is a bullpen session, then batting practice and possibly pitching in a game, March 14. That would leave three starts before the start to the season.“We’re not worried about April 1,” Collins said. “We’re worried about 30 starts. … This is about protecting him.’’

Collins and Santana didn’t appear on the same page Sunday when the latter threw off the mound and the manager questioning his reasoning later, saying he had nothing to prove.

MUPRHY UPDATE: Daniel Murphy, sidelined with a strained right side muscle, played catch, took grounders and hit in the cage. He followed that up by saying he didn’t have a timetable for when he’d take live batting practice and appear in a game. “I want to play,’’ Murphy said. “But, I want to be smart. There’s three weeks left. There’s time.’’

THE GAME: Jon Niese gave up four runs on six hits in 2.1 innings, and Carlos Torres was hit for seven runs on eight hits in 1.2 innings as the Mets were beaten, 14-10, by the Venezuelan WBC team. Collin Cowgill continues to impress, going 3-for-4 with two RBI as the DH. … Marlon Byrd hit a three-run homer and Lucas Duda was hitless in two at-bats.

K-ROD SEEKS REDEMPTION: Former Mets reliever Francisco Rodriguez did not distinguish himself during his tenure with the Mets. It wouldn’t be a reach to say the highlight of his stay was general manager Sandy Alderson’s ability to trade him the summer after his fight with his former father-in-law outside the family lounge at Citi Field. The punch cost Rodriguez an injured hand and night in jail.

Yesterday, he visited with Collins as a member of Venezuela’s WBC team. He told reporters after the game he would like a chance to make amends with the Mets.

“I would love to,” Rodriguez said. “They’ve got a great coaching staff over there. To come back and redeem myself would be great, because I’ve got to be realistic and honest. You would have to be real blind to not see that I fell when I was there. That’s not even a question. To be able to get one more shot and get it done would be great.”

JUST WONDERING: With Mark Teixeira out eight to ten weeks, and to open the season on the disabled list along with Curtis Granderson and Alex Rodriguez, nobody is projecting a hot start from the Yankees. The media is expected to crush the Yankees assuming a slow start, which could take some of the negative attention away from the Mets.

METS NOTEBOOK: Despite the Mets scoring ten runs, Collins said he’s concerned about the offense. “We’re not swinging the bats very good,’’ he said. “But, we still have around 40 at-bats (per starter) to go.’’ … Kirk Nieuwenhuis is getting treatment on his bruised left knee and said there’s no timetable for his return. I’ll have something with Nieuwenhuis in the morning. … The Mets are in their 25th spring in Port St. Lucie, the seventh longest tenure in the majors. … Matt Harvey will start Thursday against Miami, followed by Greg Burke and Brandon Lyon. … Dillon Gee, Bobby Parnell and Josh Edgin will pitch Friday against Detroit at Lakeland. … Former Mets bullpen coach Guy Conti lives in nearby Vero Beach and is a guest instructor.

The farm system may be in much better shape, and their projected 2014 payroll will be in the bottom of the majors for now – potentially opening a lot of financial flexibility going forward. However, is doom and gloom in store for the 2013 edition of the Mets? Or can they win the WAR?

While I´ll acknowledge that Wins Above Replacement is a somewhat flawed method of measuring talent – especially considering the flaws of defensive stats in this metric – it is still a sound way to judge a team overall.

So, the question is, what kind of an impact have this offseason’s transactions had on the team’s WAR compared to 2012? And how will it evolve in 2013?

Let’s examine the situation, and for those of you wondering, I’ll be using Baseball Reference’s version of WAR to conduct my analysis.

2013 Rotation: Net Gain 0.5 WAR

RA Dickey and his 5.6 WAR is gone, as are Chris Young (0.7 WAR) and Mike Pelfrey (0.9 WAR). In all likelihood, Chris Schwinden and his -0.6 WAR won´t return either. So, overall, 6.6 in WAR have to be made up and accounted for – a daunting task indeed.

Newly acquired Shaun Marcum posted a 1.3 WAR in 2012 and a 2.9 WAR in 2011. Splitting the difference, let´s assume his 2013 WAR will  2.1 as one member of this rotation.

The rest will have to be made up in-house.

Matt Harvey posted a strong 1.6 WAR in one third of a season. Since I very much believe in him, let´s assume he doubles his 2012 totals (tripling it would seem a bit outlandish). So, there´s a 3.2 WAR and thus a gain of 1.6.

Jonathon Niese had a 3.2 WAR in 2012. Let´s assume he matches that again this season and doesn´t take a step forward. Thus,.no change.

Dillon Gee posted a 0.8 WAR in 2012 while missing almost half the season. Let´s say he´s 100% back and almost doubles his previous total to a 1.5 WAR in 2013.

That leaves Johan Santana and his 0.1 WAR for 2012.

Santana’s WAR through June would was closer to 2.0 prior to his collapse over his final ten outings of the season. Let´s assume, he pitches to a modest 1.0 WAR for half the season and then gets replaced by Zack Wheeler for the other half who does half as well as Matt Harvey did in his debut. Overall, we can expect a 1.8 WAR from both of them combined.

Finally, we have Collin McHugh who made a few starts and posted a -0.9 WAR in 2012, thanks to a couple of atrocious outings late in the year while due to fatigue. Let´s assume he performs at a 0.0 replacement level.

Taking all of that conservatively projected data into consideration along with the historical data leads us to this conclusion.

The Mets needed to make up for the loss of 6.6 in Wins Above replacement.

When you calculate Marcum’s 2.1 WAR, plus the net gains of Harvey (1.6 WAR), Gee (0.8 WAR), the 1.7 WAR we could get from the Santana and Wheeler combination, and McHugh (0.9 WAR), it results in a total net gain of 7.1 in WAR.

So, overall, the rotation gains half a win vs. 2012.

2013 Bullpen: Net Gain 4.5 WAR

The Mets had one of the worst bullpens in the league in 2012.

Frank Francisco – in an injury riddled season posted a – 0.7 WAR and now seems DL bound for an extended period of time. Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez and Tim Byrdak (due to injury) are all gone from the 2012 cast and overall they combined for a 0.0 WAR last season. Manny Acosta and his -1.2 WAR is headed to Japan. Miguel Batista and his -0.2 WAR will write his poems for the Braves in 2013.

Meanwhile, the Mets have brought in Brandon Lyon (1.2 WAR in 2012), RH Scott Atchison (1.7 WAR in 2012), Pedro Feliciano (0.0 due to missing the season), Aaron Laffey ( 0.2 WAR) and LaTroy Hawkins (- 0.1 WAR). I´ll assume only Lyon, Atchison and Feliciano land a spot and replace Rauch – Ramirez – Byrdak. Conservative as I am, I´ll pencil in Lyon & Atchison for half as good a season and Feliciano as neutral. Gain: 1.5

Acosta is replaced in-house by either Jeurys Familia or Greg Burke. Since I like the latter ones quite a bit, I´ll project them as a +0.8 WAR reliever combined. Gain: 2.0

Finally, Josh Edgin posted a – 0.1 WAR in 2012 in his brief debut. Blessed with a power arm, he does modestly decent and finishes with a 0.4 WAR overall. Gain: 0.5

FF returns at some point and remains a disappointment. But instead of – 0.7, only is a – 0.2 reliever in 2013. Gain: 0.5

Parnell repeats his 2012 season as the new Mets closer.

Adding everything up, the bullpen turns from atrocious to a solid average. Yet, an overall gain of 4.5 Wins.

2013 Infield: Net Gain 3.5 Wins

Most of the 2012 Infield is back. David Wright – Ruben Tejada – Daniel Murphy – Ike Davis combined for a 10.5 WAR in 2012 – in spite of Murphy learning a new position,  Ike being limited by valley fewer, Tejada missing an extended stretch of time, and Wright being almost unprotected in the lineup most of the season.

The average age of the four regular infielders entering 2013 is 26.5 and thus pretty close to the prime years for a baseball player. Let´s assume Wright regresses slightly from 6.7 to 4.5, however Tejada improves from 1.9 to 2.5 over a full season, Murphy´s defensive improvements over the 2nd half of the season last to bring his WAR up from 1.2 to 2.0 while Ike finally has the break-out we´ve all been expecting and plays defense like in 2011 and 2010 to post a 3.0 WAR vs. 0.7 in 2012. Overall, that´s a gain of 1.5 Wins from these 4 players.

The backup infielder Cedeno (+ 0.3) is replaced by Hicks (-0.1) or Quintanilla (+0.5). Splitting the difference, this remains unchanged.

At Catcher, Josh Thole (- 0.1) gets replaced by John Buck (0.4 WAR in 2012) for a gain of half a win.

Backups Mike Nickeas (-0.7) and Rob Johnson (-0.2) are replaced by Anthony Recker (0 WAR in 2012) and Rookie Travis D´Arnaud. Being very conservative, I´ll give the latter two a combined 2013 WAR of merely + 0.6. Still, overall, that´s a 1.5 WIN gain vs. the terrible 2012 backup combo.

Adding things up, the catching improves by 2 Wins, the Infield by 1.5 wins for a total of + 3.5 wins.

 2013 Outfield: Net Gain 3.0 Wins

Ah, the outfield. A collection of rejects and suspects that has lost Scott Hairston (+ 1.5) and Andres Torres (+ 1.2) and Jason Bay (- 1.3 WAR in 2012). Total loss: 1.4 WAR.

Among newcomers, Collin Cowgill (+ 0.3 in limited action in 2012) figures to double his AB for a total WAR of + 0.6. Marlon Byrd (- 0.5 in 2012 but 1.7 in 2011) and Andrew Brown (-0.1) are competing for a spot. Let´s assume, overall they post a 0.4 WAR, so the new guys combine for 1.0 WAR.

That leaves things up to returnees.

Lucas Duda combined disappointing offense and horrible defense in RF for a – 1.4 WAR in 2012. With an easier assignment in LF and a better offensive approach, he emerges as a modestly solid player to post a 0.6 WAR – for a 2 WAR gain overall.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis had his ups & downs and finished with a 0 WAR in 2012. At age 25, he´s poised for modest improvements and an expected WAR of a conservative 1.4 – which is still below average for a CF but certainly realistic.

Finally, Mike Baxter and his 0.3 returns to RF. He probably is what he is and remains unchanged.

Still doing the math, the outfield gains 3.0 Wins overall and “improves” from atrocious to well below average in 2013.

Overall Net Gain 11.5 Wins

Now of course, it only February 26 and a couple of the players here may change for a myriad of reasons as Spring Training battles are waged in St. Lucie, but we have a good case here to believe the Mets as currently constructed can out produce what they did in 2012. Even with the key losses of R.A. Dickey and Scott Hairston.

All included, the 2013 Mets gain 11.5 wins vs. their 2012 counterparts. Please note that these projections do not include monster-breakouts for anyone. Just gradual improvements which you´d expect for generally young players and no crippling injuries.

Adding 11.5 wins to a total of 74 wins in 2012, you get to 85.5 wins. Not good enough to beat the Nationals for the division and probably behind the Braves as well. But certainly good enough to challenge the Phillies for 3rd place in the NL East and thus compete for the second Wild Card in the NL. And if players such as D´Arnaud, Wheeler, Ike or Duda really happen to break out in a big way, there´s upside for an even higher total. But let´s stop dreaming and “only” look at a glass that could be a lot closer to “half full” than people realize.

Updated by Joe D.

According to Mike Puma of the NY Post, after telling reporters that Frank Francisco has been shut down due to inflammation in his right elbow, Mets manager Terry Collins told Puma that “he wants Bobby Parnell to take over as the team’s closer.”

“We keep talking about 2014 … why not get a head start?” Collins said. “I’m not panicking, but you’ve got to get somebody ready, and Bobby to me is that guy.”

Adam Rubin of ESPN New York quotes pitching coach Dan Warthen, who says:

“His last 11 outings, he didn’t give up anything. I thought his maturity changed. I thought he and [Jon] Niese both had breakout years last year. And I think he’s there. I think he’s ready to close.”

Not surprising news, but big news nonetheless.

The Mets developing their own homegrown closer? This is unheard of, somebody pinch me!

I would love to see Parnell grab this opportunity and run with it.

I want to see him succeed and earn a big, huge paycheck next season as a top shelf closer – hopefully, still with the Mets of course.

Take the bull by the horns, Bobby… This your time to shine…

Original Post 2/8

Frank Francisco told the New York Post yesterday that he is the Mets’ closer.

Sure, he might have been signed last offseason to be the Mets’ closer, but it’s not like he went out last year and was stellar on the mound.

In fact, his numbers (5.53 ERA and 23 saves) were pretty poor for a closer.

So while he “thinks” he is this team’s closer, nothing is set in stone.

The Mets today agreed to a contract with another veteran reliever, Brandon Lyon. He’s been mostly a setup man in his career, but he does have experience closing. He may push Francisco for save opportunities.

In a perfect world, Francisco, who will earn closer’s money at $6.5 million in 2013, will have a great season and cement his role as the closer early on. Meanwhile, the veteran bullpen options like Lyon, Scott Atchison and LaTroy Hawkins will push youngsters Bobby Parnell, Jeurys Familia and Josh Edgin in spring training to pitch at a high level.

But nothing in this world is perfect.

With the expectations low for the Mets this season, the organization needs to have a short leash with overpriced veterans. If Francisco tanks, get him out of there. He’s not part of this team’s future, so the Mets should just bite the bullet on his salary if necessary.

I’d rather see Parnell, Familia and Edgin, as well as a few others, get the chance late in games rather than run a struggling Francisco out there. Leads will be precious for the 2013 Mets, so the most qualified relievers – not the highest paid – should get the first crack at saving games.

Again, maybe the most qualified relievers this season will in fact be Francisco and Lyon. They’ve shown in their careers that they can be effective late in games, so it’s certainly possible that they can be productive.

But as far as Francisco claiming that he is the Mets’ closer before spring training has even started, that’s a little much.

I’m glad that he’s confident in his abilities, but he should have said that he’s willing to work super hard to rebound from a poor year last year in order to re-earn his spot.

He could have said, “I am this team’s closer, and I am going to prove that right from the start of spring training.”

The key word here is “prove.” It’s not like Francisco is Mariano Rivera. Even with Rivera coming off an injury, his track record suggests he’ll be just fine.

Francisco’s career has been middling at best, and with Parnell waiting in the wings, Francisco’s job should be far from safe.

Brandon Lyon had a great season out of the bullpen for the Detroit Tigers in 2009.  He finished the season with a 6-5 record and a 2.86 ERA.  He also finished with a sparkling 1.11 WHIP.  The thing I found most impressive about Lyon’s season was how he fared against righties and lefties.  He held righties to a .205 average and held lefties to the same .205 average.  Plus, despite the fact that he is a right-handed pitcher, he gave up only one home run to a left-handed batter in 112 at-bats.

Lyon’s effectiveness against lefties would help the Mets in two ways.  First, he wouldn’t have to be taken out of the game whenever the opposing lineup alternated between lefties and righties.  In 65 games for the Tigers, he pitched 78.2 innings, meaning he could go more than one inning when needed, which would save the bullpen from being overused.  Second, he would give Perpetual Pedro a much needed break.  In 2009, Pedro Feliciano set the all-time franchise record for appearances by a reliever.  Since he was the only pitcher who was consistently effective against lefties (they hit .215 against Feliciano in 2009), Jerry Manuel was constantly going to him, eventually pitching him in 88 games after he was used 86 times in 2008.  Brandon Lyon would allow Manuel to give Feliciano more breaks in 2010, allowing him to remain sharp for the entire season.

Also, Brandon Lyon is a much cheaper alternative to J.J. Putz.  The Tigers paid Lyon $4.25 million to pitch for them in 2009.  Although Lyon’s good season has him in line for a raise, it should still be less than the money the Mets would have to give Putz to keep his injury-prone self around.  Lyon’s age (30) should also attract the Mets, as Putz will be 33 before Opening Day.

Lyon is projected to be a Type B free agent, but that should not factor into the decision, as Lyon’s positives far outweigh his negatives, which as of now, is just his Type B free agent status.  Let’s not forget that one of the things Omar Minaya was being praised for last season when he traded for Putz.  He made a big deal about Putz being able to close games should something happen to Francisco Rodriguez.  Well, Brandon Lyon also has closer experience, saving 54 games over his career when pressed into the closer’s role.

There might be other options the Mets could consider for the eighth inning role, but if the Tigers choose not to re-sign Brandon Lyon for the 2010 season, the Mets should take a long look at him.  He could be the set-up man they’ve been looking for.