This week Cincinnati came to town. Now, imagine for a moment, if as you walked into Citi Field you were handed a ballot where you could choose which Reds you would want playing that day. Safe to say, we Mets fans would probably decide that Brandon Phillips, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce deserve a day off. We could have Jack Hannahan bat clean-up. Johnny Cueto? Are you kidding me? Of course not.

Why would we do this? The answer is obvious. We want our Mets to win.

Now, of course that would never happen. When do fans get to pick their opponent’s team? Unless, it’s the All-Star Game.

Growing up and becoming a fan in the 1970’s, the Mid-Summer Classic was a highlight of the season for me. It gave me a chance to see my baseball cards come to life. The game was steeped in tradition. It showcased the top talent in the game. It was an opportunity for America to see the best and brightest from each league battle for ‘bragging rights.’

We had the opportunity to see dream match-ups that only existed in Strat-O-Matic. We could watch our own Tom Seaver try to fan Rod Carew, a young cocky Roger Clemens trying to sneak a fast ball by Tony Gwynn, Charlie Hustle digging in against Catfish or Rickey Henderson challenging the arm of Dave Parker. Yes, this is what the All-Star Game was. And what it is meant to be.

As we all know the game regrettably has changed. League loyalty is gone. Not only do players not stay with one team for most of their career, but they have no qualms about switching leagues. Guys like George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Reggie Jackson, Jim Palmer, Willie Mays and countless others never would have dreamed about ‘crossing over.’ Nowadays, however, one doesn’t have to look far. Pujols, Cabrera, Fielder, Beckett, A-Gon have all switched.

And that’s fine. But in the midst of this, league loyalty fades away.

Yet, in 2003, Bud Selig elected to add a disturbing nuance to the ASG when he decided that the winner of a ‘meaningless’ game in July determines who has home field advantage for the World Series.

Obviously, thanks to the commissioner, the contest is no longer a simple platform to display the top stars. The game now has major significance, huge importance. The All-Star Game has a direct outcome on who may become World Champions. Since the inception of this rule a decade ago, the league that won the All-Star Game has gone on to win the World Series 7 out of 10 times. And the last four in a row. (The only exceptions were the 03 Marlins, 06 Cardinals and 08 Phillies.)

Now, being a NL fan, I obviously want the NL to win. And since this is the case, explain to me why I should vote for the top stars from the AL. Are you joking? I’m rooting for the NL—But yet I am supposed to vote for Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols and Dustin Pedroia and Torii Hunter??? The heck with that! I’m going to vote for the worst hitters I can find, some guy from Seattle or Kansas City I never heard of. I’m supposed to vote for Ian Kinsler or Howie Kendrick when Cleveland’s Jason Kipnis is on the ballot? Come on people. Get real.

And since Commissioner Selig has turned this exhibition game into something of great significance, I, as a NL fan, want the best NL-ers out there. Since the point is to win, why does every need need to be represented? Why does every player need to get one at-bat? Why are the managers equally concerned with making sure every player gets in the game as they are with winning the game? Since the purpose is to win, I better see Buster Posey and Bryce Harper out there the entire night. I want to see Kershaw for 8 and Romo to close it out.

When Giants manager Bruce Bochy set his line-up for game 4 of the World Series last year, he didn’t decide that perhaps Pablo Sandoval needed a day off. He didn’t elect to give Posey a rest and put Hector Sanchez behind the plate. He put his best team on the field. Why? Because it was a must-win game…just like the All-Star Game has become.

Now, of course, this would never happen. Dodger fans would be up in arms (and rightfully so) if their ace “wasted” a start in the “meaningless” All-Star Game. But really, how meaningless is it?

So, as a Baseball fan, I will vote for the 2013 All-Star Game. But as a Mets fan, and as a fan of the National League, I will be voting for the worst the American League has to offer. And I will continue to do so until Selig reinstates the Mid-Summer Classic to what it was and what it should be: A traditional setting where fans could sit back and enjoy the best our National Pastime has to offer.

One of the more frustrating things so far about the 2013 season for the Mets, has to be the ongoing struggles of first baseman Ike Davis. Many of us including myself, were simply salivating of the thought of a breakout season for Davis this year, especially after the way he ended the 2013 season leading the National League in home runs and RBIs.

With the exodus of Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols to the American League, some even envisioned a possible All Star berth along side Joey Votto at Citi Field for the Mid-Summer Classic.

All those glossy expectations are now out the window and instead of celebrating a great season for our first baseman of the future, we are left wondering if Ike Davis will be a part of the solution or the future at all. Trade rumors and speculation are already abounding.

Manager Terry Collins can’t make up his mind what to do with his struggling power hitter and after vowing to leave him in the cleanup spot for as long as it takes, he was dropped to the seven spot of the order two days later.

Andrew Kahn, who has written for the Wall Street Journal, Newsday and ESPN, sheds some light on the matter in a comprehensive article today which you can read here.

Using Baseball-Reference’s “Similarity Scores,” he gathers a list of players who compared with David through their age 25 seasons. Among them you will find Carlos Delgado, Mo Vaughn, Eric Karros and David Ortiz to name a few.

However, the key difference between Davis and the other players in the chart, he writes, is that they had a breakout season. “A year in which they performed close to how they’d perform over the rest of their career at age 25 or 26.”

He tackles the question I posed in the title, and does a good job of concluding that if Ike Davis is ever going to be the player we all thought he would be and thus save his career, then this is the year to prove it. Read Andrew’s full article here.

He was later diagnosed with a contusion, which for the Mets sake is good news. At the moment of impact on his right leg, I thought to myself that something needs to be done to protect the pitchers.

The mound to home plate is 60 feet 6 inches away and without any protection the pitchers are sitting ducks. There isn’t anything that can truly protect them other than their glove and their ability to react when a ball is headed right towards them. They are even lucky if they can see the ball as it is coming towards them probably faster than it was thrown to the batter.

Last night on Twitter I tweeted:

I think pitchers need some sort of padding like the catchers have, balls come back faster than they are thrown. #Mets @mlbinjurynews

— David Conde (@MetsFanatic24) April 24, 2013

Now it can be argued that there is no way a pitcher will be able to pitch with gear on, that it will be uncomfortable, but what else can be done. If they had a hat that was more like a helmet, it may protect them from getting hit in the head, but their face is still exposed, so what about a face mask. Football players who are running all over the field and moving more so than a baseball pitcher wear face masks, now they are not dodging a baseball, but they are still protected from most head injuries. Now obviously a pitcher wouldn’t have a hug helmet on but a small hat(helmet) with a face mask could be constructed to help protect the pitchers. It would be awkward at first and probably even be uncomfortable, but it would protect the pitchers and give them peace of mind while on the mound.

John Olerud used to wear a helmet when he played the field to protect his head because of a brain aneurysm he had in college. Now Olerud’s reasoning may be a bit more severe then just protecting pitchers, but it makes sense that a team would want to make sure that their pitching staff has a chance to protect themselves. Which organization would be the first to implement the idea, and do whatever is necessary to protect their players? It isn’t something that happens every game, but when it does, it can mean the difference between life threatening or career ending injury.

Now helmets may not be the only protection that can be created for a pitcher, they can also wear padding that maybe is fitted inside their uniform pants, or even padding on their arms. Once again, we are messing with something that may hurt the pitchers mechanics, but it can be something they can implement into their routine where it becomes a part of it. I thought this all sounded foolish to think about until I looked it up and found a quote by Tim McCarver during the 2012 World Series game between the San Francisco Giants and the Detroit Tigers when Tigers Pitcher Doug Fister was struck in the top of the head by a ball off the bat of Giants batter Gregor Blanco. As reported on an ESPN article back on Feb 17, 2013, Tim McCarver stated:

“I never thought this before this year, but I think baseball is going to have to resort to helmets for pitchers like catchers wear.”

This kind of thinking may be to the extreme, but how else can the pitchers be protected. The incident during the 2012 World Series was not the first time a pitcher has been struck by a line drive to the head. There was a game in 1957, as also noted by the same ESPN article on Feb 17, 2013:

Pitching prodigy Herb Score of the Cleveland Indians took a shot off the bat of the New York Yankees’ Gil McDougald to his right eye. His blurred vision would eventually improve, but Score’s budding career was effectively derailed.

The accidents don’t just affect the pitchers that are hit; it can also affect the batter and stay in their minds for a long time. There isn’t anything different that a batter can do to prevent it from happening, but the end results of the injuries can affect the way a player approaches the game in the future.

One of the most horrific accidents to happen on the baseball diamond was when Oakland’s Brandon McCarthy suffered life-threatening injuries when a line drive hit by the Los Angeles Angels’ Erick Aybar struck him in the head. McCarthy had to undergo emergency brain surgery because he suffered a brain contusion, epidural hemorrhage and skull fracture. McCarthy was very lucky to even be able to come back to pitch, which is totally a miracle.

I read online that some have thought that putting padding in the caps would be the fix, but once again, that would only protect the head, what about the face. On May 21, 2008, Albert Pujols hit a line drive that struck Padre Pitcher Chris Young right between the eyes. It was noted that Young suffered a skull fracture and broken nose, so just adding padding to the hat would not have helped Young at that time. But doesn’t mean it isn’t an idea worth looking at.

When a pitcher is on the mound, not only is he the center of attention during the game, but he is also at the wrong place when a ball is headed right up the middle of the diamond. Based on the way a pitcher finishes his delivery which depends on which hand he pitches with, he may fall to the left or right side of the mound, but at that moment that he is falling, and unaware of it, a ball may be quickly cruising right towards him and the only reaction he may have is to put his glove or bare hands in front of his head and face. There is no guarantee that he will be quick enough to prevent the impact, but if he had something on for protection, he may have a better chance of avoiding major injury, which would be a great boost for his confidence to help get him back on the mound. It only takes one major hit on the head to end a career, so the proper protection may be worth looking into.

March is fantasy baseball draft month, and with only a week left, leagues are beginning to finalize and finish their drafts. The fantasy baseball season officially kicks off on Opening Day, which is a little over a week away. Over the past week or two, a number of high caliber players have gone down. Here is some injury news to be aware of as you head into the final week of drafting, as some of the injured players may start the season on the disabled list.

Hanley Ramirez
Ramirez needs surgery to repair a torn ligament in his right thumb and will be out for eight weeks. He injured himself in the World Baseball Classic championship game against Puerto Rico. The eight week timetable puts him at a possible mid-to-late May return, but more likely early June.

Advice: Hanley’s fantasy value obviously takes a massive hit. Luis Cruz appears to be the leading candidate at shortstop, with Dee Gordon still a possibility as well.

Chase Headley
The Padres’ third baseman is out with a small fracture on the tip of his left thumb. The estimated time for his return to action is 4-6 weeks, which could mean a possible, early May return.

Advice: Headley will likely slip in drafts, and if he is still sitting there in round five you may want to consider scooping him up. Headley finally hit on his potential in 2012; I would grab him and stash him on your DL until he is ready.

Mark Teixeira
The first baseman has an to the tendon sheath in his right wrist, which is the same ailment Jose Bautista dealt with last year, which required surgery.  GM Brian Cashman recently estimated that Teixeira has about a 70 percent chance of avoiding surgery. If he has an operation, it would end his season.

Advice: Teixeira will likely not return until June at the earliest.  Keep in mind if you draft him, you are taking a chance, because if he ends up needing surgery, he will likely be done for the season. Kevin Youkilis has seen time at first base this spring, as well as Juan Rivera.

Zack Greinke
The righty threw 43 pitches over four scoreless innings in a minor league game Wednesday, and following the outing stated that his arm “felt really good… It felt strong.” With only two more exhibition outings scheduled, on March 25 and 30, he could potentially line up to make his Dodgers’ regular season debut on April 5.

Advice: I would draft Greinke as you had originally planned. He is on a powerhouse team, and appears to be healthy enough to start the season. Worst-case scenario is that the Dodgers take a cautious approach with their hefty investment, and he misses a couple starts to begin the season.

Albert Pujols
Prince Albert is recovering from offseason surgery on his right knee, as well as dealing with plantar fasciitis. He said he felt “great” during his first spring start at first base on Tuesday, and at this point it appears he should be firing on all cylinders come Opening Day.

Advice: The Angels would rest Pujols for the remainder of the spring, if it meant he would be ready to go on Opening Day. Right now, he is easing back into action, which is a good sign. As long as the knee is healthy, he will be good to go. He has dealt with the plantar fasciitis for the last 6-7 years.

David Ortiz
The lefty slugger is still dealing with a heel issue and is slated to begin the season on the disabled list. Right now, there is no clear timetable on when he will be ready to go.

Advice: Big Papi cancelled a scheduled batting practice on Wednesday, and it appears that once he comes off the disabled list, he will need a rehab stint. Anticipate him coming off the DL by mid-April, at the earliest, followed by a week or two rehab, which puts Ortiz at a possible late April, or early May return.

Derek Jeter
The Yankees captain will not appear in another Grapefruit League game this spring due to his balky ankle. The Bronx Bombers want to have the ability to backdate a disabled list stint if he is not ready to go on Opening Day. In the meantime, Jeter is expected to play in games on the minor league side of camp at some point next week. Not playing in major league games gives the Yankees the ability to backdate his DL stint if need be.

Advice: Anticipate a 15-day DL stint to start the season. The Yankees will not rush their captain, and risk losing him for a longer period, especially with all the injuries they currently have to key players.

Carl Crawford
Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said earlier in the week that he believes Carl Crawford will be ready for Opening Day. The speedy outfielder has finally progressed to live game action, and picked up a pair of hits and an RBI in Monday’s tilt with the Diamondbacks.

Advice: At this point, he has yet to play in the field, which is a hurdle that will need to be climbed before he’s cleared for Opening Day. I’m not so sure I share the same optimism as Colletti. I believe this is a rushed attempt to return for Opening Day, and I expect some DL time for Crawford this season.

Post any questions you may have regarding injuries or possible replacement players, and I will respond throughout the day. Check back on Monday as I will be posting about possible sleepers, closer battles, and some prospects to keep an eye on.

Each year, Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings are the best time for teams, executives, and agents to make deals, whether they’re free agent signings or player trades. After the busy week finishes amongst some of the most powerful figures in professional baseball, a lot of the most sought after free agents have either been re-signed to their original team, or find a new home for the next few years. This year at the Hilton Anatole in Dallas, Texas, two teams made bigger splashes than the others: the Miami Marlins and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

I think that the biggest shock for not only the Winter Meetings, but for the entire off-season thus far is the willingness of the Miami Marlins front office to open their pockets and court the biggest free agents of the winter. The organization made three major signings, agreeing to terms with closer Heath Bell (3-years/$27 million), shortstop Jose Reyes (6-years/ $106 million), and starting pitcher Mark Buehrle (4-years/ $58 million). In a span of about a week, the Marlins spent $191 million. That’s a heck of a lot of money, considering the organization has never been known to be a big spender and sells off most of their old talent once they’ve become too expensive.

The payroll in Miami will be jumping to over $100 million for the first time in the team’s history, quite a large increase from the 2011 payroll of $57 million. So, how in the world can the Marlins afford these top tier free agents all of a sudden? Well, as most of you know, they will be opening up a brand new, state-of-the-art stadium right in downtown Miami. Tim Kurkjian reported on ESPN this week that the Marlins are not only getting out of one of the worst leases in the MLB with the opening of their new stadium, but they are projecting to sell a lot of tickets this year and beyond, creating a new revenue level they’ve never been able to achieve before. So, instead of waiting until they reach that point to spend money on free agents, they have decided to do so now, creating more excitement to the team. The one thing that makes me suspicious is that none of these contracts includes no trade clauses, and when they were courting Albert Pujols, they wouldn’t bend on their stance. In my eyes, it is because of their past fire sales once they won their two World Series titles in 1997 and 2003. They have successfully created more excitement; now it will be a question as to whether it puts people in the seats and if these big time free agents stay in Miami for the length of their contract.

The other team that made a big splash at the end of the Winter Meetings was the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, by singing first baseman Albert Pujols (10-years/ $254 million) and starting pitcher C.J. Wilson (5-years/$77.5 million). LA was rumored to be linked with Wilson for most of the winter, mostly because he is originally from Southern California. Before Angels GM Jerry DiPoto swooped in and signed Wilson, his agent proclaimed that his pitcher was less than an hour away from signing with the Marlins…imagine if they signed him too?

Overall, I think that Wilson fits in nicely with the Angels, and partnering up with Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, and Ervin Santana, they form one of the scariest pitching rotations in the league. The bigger surprise was the organization’s ability to steal Albert Pujols from re-signing with the St. Louis Cardinals. There were some whispers going on around the league that Pujols wasn’t too happy with St. Louis for a number of reasons, and it seemed to be enough of a problem not to re-sign with the team that he won three MVPs, two World Series titles, and spent 11 seasons with. So, the new Angels first baseman will be in SoCal for the next decade, signing the second most lucrative contract in MLB history. LA’s payroll will be projected at $140 million for 2012, much higher than the front office anticipated, but owner Arte Moreno felt that signing these players and spending $331.5 million this off-season would pay dividends.

The next step is to actually play…these signings are great, but like the Red Sox learned last year, you don’t win championships on paper, but on the field. It will be an interesting 2012, that’s for sure!

Though the Mets will have to deal with Jose Reyes within the division for the next six years (or at least until the Marlins trade him away like they do all their star talent), no Pujols in the division is a big plus.

Granted, the current Marlins first baseman, Gaby Sanchez, is becoming synonymous with Pat Burrell in being an ultimate Met-killer. But then again, Pujols is Pujols.

The Marlins order is already going to be difficult to pitch to with Mike Stanton, Logan Morrison, Hanley Ramirez (if he stays) and now Reyes. Just imagine if “The Machine” was placed right in the middle.

Since many Mets fans have already given up 2012 and possible 2013 (I haven’t just yet), the non-Pujols signing may not be felt until the Mets are competitive once more, whenever that may be.

Pujols to the AL makes the most sense since he’ll have the option to DH in the latter stages of his career. It will be weird when the Mets play the St. Louis Cardinals to not see Pujols in the middle of the order.

The Marlins have been the talk of the league, bringing in Reyes, former Met Heath Bell and lefty Mark Buehrle. However, adding Pujols would have made them the hands-down favorites in the NL East.

While the Mets may not have much of a shot at the division title this year, not having to deal with Pujols in the division when the team does become relevant again is a big win.

Indirectly, Pujols signing with the Angels could be the move that most affects the Mets this offseason, except of course for the Reyes deal.

In Alderson we trust? You be the judge.

Being labeled as being the most valuable in any aspect of life is a pretty special occurrence. It’s not every day that you or I get an honor like that, and the same goes for professional sports. There have been plenty of players in Major League Baseball that have extraordinary careers and get elected to the Hall of Fame, yet either fail to win an MVP award or possibly just win one. When a player has the honor given to him more than once, then we have a special athlete on our hands.

There have only been 29 players in Major League history that have won multiple league MVP awards, with only 10 of those 29 winning the award three or more times. Barry Bonds is in a club by himself since he won the NL MVP award an astonishing seven times. The three-time winners include: Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella, Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx, Mickey Mantle, Stan Musial, Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Mike Schmidt.

Even though I’m from the school of thought that Barry Bonds took performance enhancing drugs during the later part of his career, being named the best player in your respective league for 31% of your entire career is pretty amazing, especially since the last four times he won the award, he did so consecutively.

I can only imagine what it would be like if Bonds accomplished all that he did in his career without using performance enhancing drugs. He is the all-time and single-season home run leader, with 762 and 73 home runs, respectively. He finished with a .298 career average, 1,996 RBI, 514 stolen bases, 2,935 hits, 2,227 runs scored, and 2,558 walks (another record). Along with his seven MVP awards, he holds 12 silver slugger awards, eight gold gloves, and was selected to the All-Star game 14 times.

If I look at these statistics without knowing the name of the player and I was asked whether this player is a Hall of Famer, I would say yes without a hesitation. However, with the PED cloud following him for the rest of his days on this Earth, I’m quite positive that he won’t even come close to getting the necessary 75% vote needed to be inducted into the Hall- and I don’t want him in there.

Being in the Hall of Fame is an honor and those who cheated to get ahead of their competition (McGuire, Sosa, and Clemens also come to mind) don’t deserve to be honored with the best players in the history of the game. It’s too bad because before Bonds started putting up these ridiculous power numbers, I would have considered him a Hall of Famer anyways. Do you think he should be inducted in Cooperstown?

The last question I ask every week is a simple one: can this record be broken? I actually think there is a small chance. I don’t think A-Rod will be winning anymore of these as he’s entering his late-30s and is already showing signs of slowing down. However, Albert Pujols has the opportunity to challenge this record because he’s such an amazing player that he is somehow involved in MVP discussions on a year-in-year-out basis. Who do you think has a chance to challenge this record?

His bunt single didn’t bother me in the slightest as it did to some fans. In fact for a leadoff hitter, it’s almost fitting for Reyes to go for the drag bunt single. However I was one of the many fans, including the SNY broadcast booth, who sat stunned as Reyes left the game right after his bunt single.

I think it’s safe to say that every Met fan would have loved to have seen Reyes at least take the field the next inning. Terry Collins, calling time, could have sent Justin Turner in a slow deliberate jog out to relieve Reyes – providing the fans and Reyes a chance for some mutual appreciation.

Cue the theme music from the movie The Natural and the crowd would have eaten it up.

Ok I admit it’s a bit cheesy and maybe we’ve been conditioned by Hollywood to expect and believe in these melodramatic moments. Maybe it’s just because as a franchise we haven’t had a whole lot to cheer for the last few years. Maybe it’s just splitting hairs when unfortunately it’s all that we have left to do.

Either way and for whatever reason or whoever is at fault, I think like many situations involving this team, this too could have been handled a lot better. But what’s done is done and it’s time to once again move on.

Will Jose Reyes get his chance for that roaring standing ovation in 2012….as a Met? All season we’ve speculated what Reyes’ agent will demand for his now 2011 NL Batting Champ. Let’s assume that Reyes and the Mets cannot come to an agreement; where does that leave the organization? Alderson isn’t the type to allow negotiations to go on ad-naseum so if a deal isn’t likely to happen soon it probably won’t happen at all.

If the team simply isn’t willing to entertain the idea of signing a player to a multi-year, close to one-hundred million dollar contract, then this is moot. But if they are then it begs a question, what about the real 800 pound gorilla in room, Albert Pujols?

Here’s is my reasoning on this, and I know I’m assuming a lot but hey, that’s what the Hot Stove is all about. If the Cardinals cannot for whatever reason sign Pujols, and the Mets pass on Reyes, should the Mets throw their hat in the ring and try to land Pujols?

Pujols is a player that any GM would salivate over having. He absolutely fits Alderson’s criteria. He’s a power bat with the ability to drive in runs and get on base and yes, an absolute marquee name that will undoubtedly fill the seats. He’s not young but he’s not necessarily over the hill either at 30.

The last marquee 30 year old the Mets acquired will most likely enter the Hall with a Mets hat and the title of being the greatest hitting catcher of all time. And perhaps more importantly, unlike the uber-fragile Reyes, Pujols has been healthy the majority of his career and is clearly a Hall of Famer if he were to hang up his cleats today.

If the Mets are willing to give Reyes at least 18 million a year for 5 years would they be willing to go to 22 to 25 a year for Pujols, with the question being how long? Does it make sense signing Pujols who can alter this team in ways that Reyes can’t?

Would coming to New York entice Pujols or are both free agents more likely to simply return to their familiar settings in the end? Perhaps Reyes’ quick exit on the last game of the year shouldn’t be worried over as much as it has?

So many questions and so many possibilities it’s going to make for an exciting Hot Stove this Winter. One thing is sure at least from my perspective, if we do lose Reyes and not replace him with someone of substantial substance; it’s going to be a long road ahead. What say you?

I was recently able to sit down with Cardinals’ Assistant General Manger Michael Girsch, Baseball Development Analyst Chris Correa, and team Arbitration Lawyer Hal Welford after they gave a presentation on statistical modeling in baseball.

The casual fan does not realize how much the front offices do to try to model any decision that they will be making. Some of these models are very accurate while others are just used to give the front office a good sense of what is going on.

One of the first things that a front office does is look to project the net annual cash flow of any player they sign. To calculate this they look the player’s production minus their salary. They use a discounted cash flow model to try to determine the player’s production value. For the Cardinals, this value is determined by the player’s Runs above Replacement value. They then discount it by using calculations of how much a win today is worth versus a win in the future.

For a team like the Royals, with their strong farm system, a win in two years is likely worth more to them then a win now, while with a team like the Yankees, a win today is worth a lot.

Each team has a different dollar amount that it plans to spend for each run above replacement level. This is generally impacted by market size.

In addition to these calculations, the teams are also looking toward calculations that they will be able to do in the future. One thing in development that will provide much more data is Field F/X. This is a system that uses hundreds of cameras to take hundreds of measurements a second. This system will be able to give front offices information about location, speed, and direction of every player and the ball at all times. In turn, this will allow teams to see things such as whether or not an outfielder consistently gets a good jump on the ball.

Even with all this data, the best analytics may only provide a slight edge. Part of this is related to the fact that there have become more teams who are taking a deeper look at the numbers. According to Correa teams with a large analytical department can still have an advantage. He stated this is because, “most teams have few guys working with data”.

However, the competitive advantage of using statistics has changed since it was revolutionized by Billy Beane and the Moneyball strategy. Now, according to Girsch, there are “fewer mispricings in the market. The quality of data available now versus the ‘90’s is so much different. On-base percentage is no longer undervalued”.

Some teams have even chosen not to have an analytical group in their front office. The Twins don’t have one and yet they are able to compete because they have very strong scouting and player development.

Another interesting topic that came up during the presentation was the arbitration process. It was noted that for relievers, their salary is driven by saves, holds, and ERA and that for starters, wins played a large role in addition to awards they have won.

When it was asked why sabermetrics are not used in this process, Welford noted “many arbiters are either economics professors or lawyers, not baseball fans. The information needs to be toned down”.

In addition, Welford said that fan appeal is a factor in the arbitration process, but more so for pitchers. He mentioned the example of Fernando Valenzuela. He said “More than 10,000 fans showed up when he pitched regardless of whether it was at home or on the road. He had a significant impact on the gates”.

From there, the conversation branched off into a conversation about how Clayton Kershaw and David Price could redefine the arbitration market. Ben Nicholson-Smith brought up this concept earlier in the week over at MLB Trade Rumors.

Welford said that the market for these two would be incredibly difficult to establish. He said that “both will be compared to Tim Lincecum and even then, it is still hard to use that as a comparison. If they go year to year, that is very different than the two your deal Lincecum got”.

The conversation then moved toward scouting. When I asked about the impact of luck and stats such as BABIP, Correa said that they are looked at very differently depending on the level. He said, “we don’t really used BABIP (for hitters and pitchers) much in the MLB because we have a lot of batted ball data. However, it is very useful when it comes to evaluating players in the minors, college, or even high school”.

This is not the only time where there is a difference between the majors and other levels when it comes to statistics. It was asked if sabermetrics, Pitch F/X, and scouting reports were used in combination to make determinations about players. Girsch noted that this is done during the draft because it is “a discreet event and we can combine data”. However, he also stated that it is much harder to do at the pro level “because your looking at that data and the information can change between April and June”.

Finally, the questions moved onto information relating to the Cardinals. A question was asked about how Adam Wainwright would be evaluated since he has already established that he has superstar potential but his future is now uncertain. Correa said that the team uses a model to project a player’s ability when they return from specific injuries.  According to Girsch, the team has also developed models that “try to pick out injuries to a pitcher based on injury history, fastball velocity, and mechanics”. However, Girsch also stated that these models are not that great but they are still useful. He also said that the team even attempted to model Matt Holliday’s return from his appendectomy but there was not even data available.

The last set of questions was related to the topic that is on everyone’s mind in St. Louis: Albert Pujols.

Pujols means so much to the city and has so much intangible value. However, it could not be modeled by the front office because according to Girsch, the team “doesn’t have analytics for that. We try to talk to ticket sales and marketing, but there are not enough examples like Pujols to actually do any analysis”.

Then, I asked the big question about Pujols’ value and future production. Girsch responded by saying, “It’s really hard. We try to develop an aging curve using all players in the past fifteen years and use that. We can try to limit it to just All-Stars.  However, every guy is unique. He could be like Frank Thomas and just drop off, or like Barry Bonds and miraculously get better with age, or he could be like Hank Aaron and stay consistent as he gets older”.

The team has also stated that it will not talk about the Pujols contract situation.

It is my belief that it is more about if the owners decide to open up their checkbook to pay Albert what he wants than anything else. The number that they guys present really doesn’t matter because Albert will be able to get what he wants out on the open market.

Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins, coaches, and all 25 Mets players will be in attendance.

Pitcher R.A. Dickey will receive the Ya Gotta Believe award, named for former Mets pitcher Tug McGraw. After being the first player cut during spring training in 2010, Dickey finished the season with an 11-9 record and a 2.84 ERA, seventh-best in the National League.

“It’s been a long journey for me,” said Dickey, Sunday’s winning pitcher who is scheduled to start the Mets’ 4:10 p.m. home opener against the Washington Nationals this Friday, April 8. “My wife Anne always wanted me to continue to play. She didn’t want me to have any regrets.”

The Ya Gotta Believe award is given annually to a Met who has shown an exceptional commitment to the community, fortitude in overcoming adversity, and the spirit to believe that anything is possible.

Original Post 3/3 8:00 PM

R A Dickey 20 game winner? Okay, I’ll calm down now. I know it was only one game and after 6 IP it’s way too soon to claim Dickey will become the Mets first 20 game winner since Frank Viola in 1990. But how can one not be impressed by his performance today?

Pitching in the middle of our rotation, Dickey will usually face mid-line starters from other teams, avoiding the Cliff Lee’s and Tim Lincecum’s of the world. This could work in his favor.

Although 5 of the 9 runs we scored today were unearned, Dickey quieted the Marlins bats, allowing just 5 hits and fanning 7 while allowing 0 earned runs. 69 of his 106 pitches were strikes.

One thing we all love about the Mets is that it’s always the little guys, the ones you don’t expect, who seem to emerge from the shadows. In 2006, it was utility outfielder Endy Chavez who defined an entire season with one catch. In 1986, in spite of having guys like Gary and Keith and Darryl, it was an outfielder who had less than 400 AB’s that hit the most famous ‘slow roller’ in baseball history. It was not rookie phenom Doc Gooden who dominated in 86, but rather a crafty lefty acquired from Boston named Bobby Ojeda. Ojeda, who at age 29 was the oldest starter on the team, was 18-5 and team leader in ERA. In 1973, we had ‘The Big Three.’ Seaver, Koosman and Matlack were perhaps the most feared trio in Baseball at the time. But it was George Stone (who???), a career 500 pitcher, who went 12-3 to post the best winning percentage on the team. As the Mets prevailed in one of the closest pennant races ever and won just 82 games, Stone won his last 8 decisions.

Could Dickey be the next unsuspecting star to rise to the occasion?

In 1906, Lew Hicks became the first pitcher to throw a baseball by gripping it with his knuckles. It was 2 years later when a rookie named Eddie Cicotte mastered the pitch. And for over 100 years the knuckleball has baffled and bewildered hitters. From Babe Ruth to Hank Aaron to Albert Pujols, the knuckler has sent batters walking back to the dugout shaking their head. Of approximately 300 pitchers in the majors today, only two are classified as knuckleballers.

Hitting guru Charlie Lau, the man who taught George Brett to hit and one of the greatest minds in baseball history, stated, ‘There are two theories on hitting a knuckleball. Unfortunately neither of them works.’

After floundering in both the majors and minors for well over a decade, in January 2010 the Mets signed the aging star with a career 5.43 ERA. The transaction received very little attention. What followed was Dickey becoming the Mets top pitcher last season. His 2.84 ERA was 7^th lowest in the NL, 10^th overall in Baseball.

It was Dickey himself who once said, ‘Charlie Hough told me he learned to throw the pitch in one day and spent a lifetime learning to throw it for strikes.’

Congratulations to R A for giving the Mets our first series win of the new season and on his first victory of the year. Here’s to 19 more…and a summer of surprises in Flushing.

The terms of the deal, at least according to the tight lipped Cardinal hierarchy of General Manager John Mozeliak and Chairman Bill DeWitt Jr., will stay a closely guarded state secret. Speculation has it that Pujols’ agent was looking for a deal in the range of 10 years at 30 million per. I honestly wouldn’t be shocked if it was even higher – somewhere around 40 million per.

The move by Pujols agent, to set the first day of Spring Training as the self imposed deadline to negotiate a new contract, was absolute genius. Pujols is firmly cemented in the drivers seat and if there is anyone who will have this looming over them, it most certainly will be the St. Louis executives who most likely, have set in motion Albert Pujols’ slow and deliberate exit from the St. Louis stage.

Enter the Wilpons. Or Mark Cuban. Or The Donald. Or whoever else will be the last man or men standing when the wake of Madoff makes it final slice into American history and into the wallets of the Wilpons. If by sheer foolishness, the Cardinals can’t meet Pujols demands, what better marquee player could the Mets have than Albert Pujols?

What better player to rehabilitate a franchise? He would be a game changer the same way Steve Phillips who at the behest of Nelson Doubleday, made Mike Piazza the face of the franchise in the latter half of the 90’s and into the 2000’s.

Of course that was then, and this is now and unless there is a major cosmic alignment on multiple fronts, starting with ownership, the possibility of this happening is utter fantasy.

Just think of this. How incredible would it be as a fan? Could ownership ( whoever it may be ) afford whatever Pujols is asking? Who would wear number 5?

Thoughts?

Today Ken Rosenthal reported that the Brewers would listen to offers regarding several players, one of those players is Rickie Weeks.  Weeks has one year left on his contract.  In 2010 Rickie Weeks will be making $2.75 million dollars.  The Mets we know need someone at second base as it’s highly likely that Castillo won’t be playing full time if at all for the Mets in 2010.  Also I believe that Ruben Tejada would benefit another year in Triple A.

2010 was a great year for Rickie Weeks.  In Weeks hitting out of the leadoff spot hit 29 home-runs, he had 83 RBI’s and scored 112 runs.  The 112 runs scored were second in the league to Albert Pujols.  Weeks played in 160 Games, a career high for the 2nd baseman.  Weeks also had an OBP of .355.  Weeks walked 76 times last season but he did strikeout a lot, in fact it was 184 times, just missing a Brewers club record. His stolen bases were the lowest of his career, except in 2009 but he only played in 37 games that season.  Weeks would upgrade the lineup immediately.  Imagine top 3 in the lineup consisting of Jose Reyes, Rickie Weeks and Angel Pagan?  Weeks is also not bad defensively.  Weeks posted a fielding percentage of .980 playing 159 games at second base.  He has excellent range and would make a great double play partner with Jose Reyes.

The problem with trading for Weeks is what the Brewers want in return.  Rosenthal reports that the Brewers would want a top of the rotation stater and they don’t want the 4th or 5th pitcher in the rotation.  As good as Weeks is and would help the Mets I don’t see the Mets being able to pull it off and I’m not sure I want them to trade a top of the rotation starter.  Also I’m sure Weeks is going to want to test free agency in 2012 so he would theoretically be a rental.  I’m guessing if the Mets would be willing to trade say Jon Niese that would help get the deal done but that I think would be wrong.  Niese had a great year last year and I don’t want to lose him for a possible rental.  Also the Mets in 2012 have a lot of money coming off the payroll, they’re going to need a second baseman and might just decide to wait until then to sign Weeks.

Of course we know the Mets have a couple of good pitching prospects such as Jenrry Mejia and Dillion Gee but I doubt the Brewers would want to trade Weeks for Mejia who has had control issues not to mention minor injury problems.  Dillion Gee looked good in his cup of coffee but with a player the caliber of Weeks I don’t think he would do for the Brewers.

Right now the Brewers want a 1, 2 or 3 pitcher and if they do want to trade Weeks bad enough those demands could come down a bit as the Hot Stove season heats up.  The Mets should keep their ears and eyes open for a possible trade with the Brewers.

This past Monday I watched Kevin Burkhardt’s candid interview with Fred Wilpon. It was insightful and refreshing to see our owner’s human side mixed with his business approach to running a baseball team. However, the one thing that disturbed me was his willingness to put everyone on the table. When Burkhardt mentioned specific players (Santana, Reyes and Wright), Wilpon’s response was less then reassuring. ‘If a dramatic move like that would get us five pieces,’ Wilpon said, ‘maybe that’s the thing to do.’

To us fans, the Mets are a passion, a lifetime commitment. But we also realize it’s a business. Just like CEO’s of General Motors, FedEx or Microsoft are concerned with the bottom line, so is Fred Wilpon.

Jose Reyes is my favorite player on the Mets and to see him playing elsewhere would be heartbreaking. But from a business point of view I can understand it. I wouldn’t like it, but I can understand it. He has battled injuries for 2 straight seasons and people are starting to wonder. Carlos Beltran has been unjustly crucified since arriving in New York. I’d hate to see Beltran go, but I can see that decision—from a business point of view. The same can be said of Johan who has spent a decent amount of time on the DL and wears down late every season.

But David Wright???

Although I completely disagree one can argue that Reyes, Beltran and Santana have not earned their money. However, David Wright has done everything we’ve asked of him. And more.

Without a doubt he is the best hitter to ever wear a Mets uniform. He’s our all-time leader in doubles, 2^nd in career batting average, 3^rd slugging and hits, 4^th in HR’s and OBP. Next year he will become our all-time leader in Runs and RBI’s. And lets throw in a couple of gold gloves and 5 All-Star games for good measure. Opening Day next year David will only be 29.

Whereas Reyes and Beltran unfairly have their ‘toughness’ called into question, David Wright is reliable. Since becoming our every day 3b-man in 2005, he has averaged 156 games. Again I say, he’s done everything we’ve asked.

Many fans and fellow bloggers, myself included, have attacked David for his lack of leadership. We keep waiting for him to assume that role a la Keith Hernandez. It’s becoming pretty evident, however, that it is not in his makeup. And that’s fine. Not every great player was a team leader. David’s also been criticized for striking out way too much. True. But so did guys named Reggie and Mickey and Babe.

Filling 4 or 5 holes in exhange for Wright may seem good on the surface. But I disagree. I recall a time when the Mets made a trade and got back 2 young OFers with lots of upside, a solid defensive 2^nd baseman and a tall, lanky RHP. However, I don’t think many would consider the Seaver trade a high point in our history.

After we traded The Franchise this entire organization went into a nosedive that lasted nearly a decade. Attendance dropped and Shea became nicknamed Grant’s Tomb. Lets not make that same mistake again.

Not since the likes of Darryl Strawberry have the Mets had a player with the ability and talent I see in David Wright. A player with these gifts comes along once in a generation. I really don’t feel like waiting another two decades to see it again. I’d like to be able to cheer for David NOW–and not in 20 years when we welcome him back for Old-Timers Day.

It appears to be a forgone conclusion we will do some major overhauling this winter. We all expect the Mets to embark on a campaign of rebuilding. But when Fred Wilpon claims that he will listen to offers, I ask him to put in ear plugs and don’t listen.

You don’t build a winner by getting rid of David Wright; you build a winner around David Wright.

Since July 21, 2004, David has moved up in the batting order and 0-fers have given way to some great numbers.

In 6 years David Wright has already assumed his position amongst the elite hitters in our history. Through August 3rd David is 5^th all-time in Runs (609), 4^th in HR’s (157), 3^rd in SLG and OBP (517 and 387 respectively). His 308 career BA is 2^nd in team history. He has 1101 hits and may move up to 2^nd by the end of this season. At just 27 years old, 3000 hits is not out of the question. He has already become our team leader in doubles with 250. And by next summer, David will be our all-time leader in RBI’s.

When you think of the Yankees you think Jeter. When you think of the Cardinals you think Pujols. And when you think of the Mets you think David Wright.

As the Mets steamrolled over the NLE in 06, David signed a contract extension. “I have wanted to be a lifelong Met,” he said, “And this is the first step in that direction.” But he also said, “To know I’m going to be a Met for the next 6 or 7 years is special.” 6 or 7 years, David? Not any more?

We hate to admit it but Baseball is a business. But it’s a business of winning. Players sign long term contracts worth tens, sometimes hundreds of millions of dollars. In addition to the financial reward, they also seek something money cant buy: A World Series ring. Even our own players such as Beltran and Santana came to NY not only due to the contract, but to play for a winner. At that time, the Mets were heading in the right direction.

However things have changed. Since Beltran and Johan were brought in–and since David signed his extension–we seem to be heading in the wrong direction. A devastating Game 7 loss, two historical late-season collapses, an abysmal 2009 and a 2010 season where we are at 500.

This is all hypothetical, of course. No one knows what the rest of this season will bring, much less 2011 or 2012. And of course, no one has any idea what David’s mindset is–or will be.

But unless we change direction and start winning, it’s difficult to imagine anyone wanting to stay here long term. This past winter Giants catcher Bengie Molina accepted less money to stay away, knowing full well that Buster Posey would soon be taking his job. Molina’s refusal to play for the Mets may just be the first sign of things to come.

Before we realize it the 2012 season will be here and we will be talking about locking up Wright with a long-term deal. But if the Mets continue down this woeful path it’s hard to picture David wanting to remain a Met.

He will be 30 years old Opening Day 2013. If this club continues to flounder, if we are continuing to struggle with dissension, if we are still second guessing managers, general managers and ownership, if we are falling out of pennant races in July, why would David want to spend what remains of his most productive years on a team such as this?

Maybe by 2013, David will grow tired of being pressured to assume a ‘leadership’ role he is clearly not comfortable with. Maybe by 2013, he will grow tired of post-game interviews where reporters run to him for the latest in a long line of excuses. Maybe, just maybe, unless things change, he wont want to grow old in a Mets uniform and be the cornerstone of a team that is rebuilding around him.

For several seasons, we have questioned when Wright will ‘take charge’ and assume the leadership role? But he probably never will. Some athletes have that ability. Some do not. But that doesn’t matter. Leadership is not a pre-requisite for a Hall of Fame career

The clock is ticking. With each game we come closer to the end of his contract. And come closer to his possible departure. David Wright vacating New York and leaving this organization would have just as negative an impact as the discarding of Tom Seaver. It was over three decades ago when our beloved Seaver grew tired of the direction–or lack thereof–this team was taking.

To Mets ownership, I plead with you. Do something. Do something now. Give us a winner. Don’t let history repeat itself. Lets not bid farewell to another ‘Franchise’ player.

The Cardinals have been struggling to score runs this season and until last night’s win, they have spent most of the season looking up at the first place Reds who have played surprisingly well this year.

We’ve all heard the word chemistry thrown around a lot this season, but I’ve always believed that winning breeds chemistry and that losing will lead to a lack of it. Did the Reds, who made few changes this offseason suddenly get good chemistry, and have the Cardinals whose biggest move was re-signing Matt Holliday suddenly lose the clubhouse magic?

Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, reports on what could be a developing rift between Cardinals slugger and MVP Albert Pujols and longtime manager Tony LaRussa, both of whom are locks for the Hall of Fame.

As the story goes, La Russa signaled for Ryan Ludwick, who was on first base, to steal second with two outs in the eighth inning. Albert Pujols, who was moved out of the third spot a few days earlier for the first time in over five years, was at the plate and batting cleanup. Unfortunately for Prince Albert, Ludwick was gunned down to end the inning. 

A very irate Pujols walked back to the dugout flipped his bat, then his helmet, and then smacked two trays of gum from a bench against the Cardinals dugout wall.

La Russa then sneers at Pujols and yells “that’s enough.”

Pujols barks right back and, according to eyewitnesses, the exchange escalated with La Russa telling Pujols at one point, “I (expletive) know how to manage.”

According to Strauss, the outburst was the second involving Pujols in as many days.  

The reigning National League MVP is eligible for free agency after the 2011 season, and moments like these will not exactly move him toward signing an extension any time soon. He is expected to demand $30 million dollars a year, and the Cardinals signed Matt Holliday mostly as a backup plan in case Pujols decides to bolt.

Getting back to La Russa though, what in the world was he thinking by letting Ludwick attempt a steal with his team’s best hitter at the plate?

Even if Ludwick had not been caught stealing, it would have opened up first base to walk Pujols, thus taking the bat out of his hands.

If Jerry Manuel ever did anything that stupid, there would be hell to pay. But for some reason whenever La Russa makes moves like this it’s looked upon as good old-fashioned aggressive managing or thinking out of the box. Umm, whatever…

I don’t know what Pujols said after La Russa’s remark, but I hope it went something like this,

“I (expletive) know how to drive in runs” or “I (expletive) know how to make you gone with the snap of my finger”.

Oh and by the way, I have never been convinced that batting the pitcher number eight is supposed to be some stroke of genius either.

The questions remain, though, about the starting staff behind ace Johan Santana, and also whether Santana and other injured players who missed significant time in 2009 will be back, and/or back to form.  That list is led by Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, John Maine and David Wright.  It also includes Carlos Delgado, who is a free agent but still may be re-signed by the Mets.

That said, you have to like this lineup with Bay in it, because he’s still young (31), he’s a very adequate defensive outfielder, and he’s something that we’ve been lacking on this team for a while—a tough out.  Last season with Boston, Bay had a .676 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position, second in the majors only to NL MVP Albert Pujols.  So this is a guy we had to have, and while many of us doubted Minaya, he really came through this time.

Of course, we’re still bitter about 2009, so we’re all hoping for a few more tweaks and some better luck in 2010.  But we sure do welcome Jason Bay with open arms.

Today we will take a look at the award races across Major League Baseball and my picks.

National League MVP: Albert Pujols has had this award sealed since June, and there is no other player as all-around offensively accomplished. Could have had a shot at the triple crown if Hanley didn’t run away with Avg.

Verdict : Albert Pujols

American League MVP: The two best offensive players in the American League have been Mark Teixiera and Joe Mauer. Teixiera is tied for the lead in HR (with Carlos Pena who hasn’t played since August) and leads RBI’s. Mauer finally found his power as unleashed 28 HR’s and 95 RBI, but he decisively leads the league in Avg., OBP, SLG, and OPS.  Mauer leads Tex by 71 points in Avg., while Tex leads Mauer by 11 HR and 26 RBI. The month of April was a wash for both of them, but Tex’s team is the best in the AL, and Mauer’s is fighting for the playoffs.

Verdict: Mark Teixiera

National League Cy Young: Adam Wainwright’s Wins/K/ERA (rank in parenthesis) line looks like 19(1^st)/204(4^th)/2.58(3^rd). Fellow Cardinal and former winner Chris Carpenter has 17(2^nd)/144(25^th)/2.24(1^st). Defending winner Tim Lincecum has 15(4^th)/261(1^st)/2.48(2^nd). This really could go any way. If it were Game Seven of the World Series, I’d be confident in any of them. Lincecum is hurt because his wins are less than the two Cards, but he’s actually had a better season this year than his Cy Young year last year.

Verdict: Tim Lincecum

American League Cy Young: CC Sabathia is the only one with a chance at 20 wins, as he has 19 with one start left. However his peripherals don’t match up to the Greinke, King Felix, or Roy Halladay. Verlander leads K’s by 20+ over Greinke(237), but his ERA is considerably worse. The two all around best pitchers are Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke. Greinke has 17 wins with one start left and leads the Majors with a 2.06 ERA. Felix has 18 wins with one start left with 211 K’s(4^th) and a 2.48 ERA(2^nd).

Verdict: Zach Greinke.

National League Rookie of the Year: Let’s start with hitters. Chris Coghlan (FLA) leads Runs, Avg., OBP, and OPS. Everth Cabrera (SD) and Dexter Fowler (COL) have 20+ Steals, and Andrew McCutchen (PIT) has double digit HR’s and SB’s. Among pitchers, Tommy Hanson (ATL) and JA Happ (PHI) have both had great seasons and similar numbers, though Hanson had 36 fewer innings than Happ.

Verdict: Chris Coghlan

American League Rookie of the Year: Ricky Romero (TOR), Rick Porcello (DET), and Jeff Niemann (TB) had the best seasons among starters. Gordon Beckham (CHI) had the best all around year among hitters, though Matt Wieters (BAL) lead batting avg., and Elvis Andrus (TEX) and Chris Getz (CHI) both finished with 20+ SB’s.

Verdict: Gordon Beckham

NL Manager of the Year: Jim Tracy took over a Colorado team that was headed for a high draft pick at the end of May. Now, they’re heading to the playoffs, and have a chance at stealing the division.

Verdict: Jim Tracy

AL Manager of the Year: Joe Girardi does have the highest paid team, but they have the best record by 8 games over anyone else.

Verdict: Joe Girardi

Till Next Time

The Mets have 53 home runs, worst in the majors.  The Phillies have 126 and the Yankees 136.  Gary Sheffield leads the team with 10 homers, and David Wright still only has 5.  FIVE. 

Speaking of Wright, while he’s batting a respectable .322, his 5 homers and 44 RBI puts him in the company of guys like Jacoby Ellsbury (5, 29), Freddy Sanchez (6, 34) or Pat Burrell (5, 32).  Those are decent players, but Wright is supposed to be more in the company of guys like Ryan Braun (16, 58) or Albert Pujols (34, 90).  In fact, Wright has similar power numbers to teammate Daniel Murphy (5, 29).  What the hell is that?

The Mets have 814 hits and 362 RBI.  The Phillies have 804 hits and 457 RBI.  Think about that….less hits, but almost 100 more runs batted in? 

The Mets have one complete game, and it’s not by Johan…it’s by Livan.  The Giants and Royals each have 8 complete games to lead the majors.  The GIANTS and ROYALS.

Mets’ pitchers have given up 361 walks, trailing only Washington (365) for worst in the majors.  And of course, their 10 balks leads the majors by far, thanks mostly to Pelfrey’s “yips.” 

The Mets could have had Raul Ibanez, who has 24 homers, 65 RBI and is batting .316 for you-know-who.  

The Phillies’ notable rookie this year is pitcher JA Happ, who is 7-0 with a 2.68 ERA and 65 strikeouts.  The Mets’ notable rookie is F-Mart, who is batting .176 with one homer and 8 RBI. 

Amazingly, the Mets’ hitters have only struck out 501 times, which is best in the majors.  But I guess power hitters strike out more, and the Mets have almost no power, so in that context it makes sense. 

The Phillies’ top home run hitters are Ibanez (24), Ryan Howard (23), Chase Utley (21) and Jayson Werth (20).  The Mets’ top home run hitters are Sheffield (10), Carlos Beltran (8), and Wright (5).  Oh, and Jeff Francoeur also has 5, but he hit most of those with the Braves. 

I probably just made you all sick, and I’m right there with you.  I can’t wait for this season to be over so we can move on!

Consider that the current leaders, Carlos Beltran and Gary Sheffield, have 8 home runs each so far.  Beltran has three at home, five on the road.  Sheff is split four and four.  Meanwhile, David Wright, who has just 4 homers, has three at home and only one away from Citi Field.  So how do you explain it?  And what does it project out to?  Well, Sheffield has played 58 games but can’t play every day because of creaky knees, and Beltran is on the DL.  Either way, their current pace projects to 18 homers for the season.  Wright’s pace is a paltry 9.  NINE.  We kind of cut the guy slack because he’s been leading the league in batting, but still — I expect nine homers from David Eckstein, not David Wright. 

Fascinating, isn’t it?  Well here is more to ponder.  The last time a Mets player hit less than 20 home runs was Bobby Bonilla in 1992, with 19.  Before that it was Lee Mazzilli’s 16 homers in 1980.  The team’s lowest-ever output was a three-way tie of 12 homers in 1977—between Steve Henderson, John Milner, and John Stearns.  It’s fathomable that if Sheffield and Beltran miss extensive time the rest of the way, the ’77 record could be broken, but it’s highly doubtful.  Even Carlos Delgado, who has 4 homers, could return from the DL in August and reach 20 by the end of September. 

So okay, it’s not necessarily Citi Field, though we’ve seen many potential home runs stay in the park there.  This is a more interesting issue, and maybe one that no one is discussing—the possibility that some of our Mets were using performance enhancers the last few seasons and didn’t get caught.  I’m not accusing, I’m just saying, the numbers just border on staggering, especially when Albert Pujols has 26 homers, 18 more than Sheffield or Beltran.

I’m curious to see what you all think of this.  I don’t believe any Met will reach 20 this season, do you?