One of the most revealing things about the Mets’ 7-6 loss to the Nationals today, is that they are 7-1 this season when Jon Niese and Matt Harvey start, and 1-7 when they turn to Dillon Gee, Jeremy Hefner and Aaron Laffey. That says a lot, doesn’t it?

Today’s sacrificial lamb was 26-year old Jeremy Hefner who made a quick exit lasting only four innings and allowing four earned runs on four hits, three walks and a pair of homeruns to Ian Desmond and Bryce Harper. It might be time to consider bringing up Collin McHugh who seems to be having no problems pitching in the hitter-friendly PCL and owns a league leading 0.59 ERA. As for Heff, his 7.07 ERA tells the story.

Fifth starter Aaron Laffey came out of the bullpen for this one, but offered little relief and quickly served up a three-run homer to first baseman Adam LaRoche and couldn’t even finish his one inning of work. Laffey has a 7.20 ERA this season and there’s really no reason to keep him around even as a longman.

The backbreaking blow came when Bryce Harper nailed southpaw Josh Edgin with his second homer of the game in the eighth inning. The blast was proved to be the game winner. I like Edgin, but he’s been throwing batting practice this season and his velocity has tanked. This is not the same reliever we saw last season, and it may be time to cut bait with Edgin and his 9.00 ERA.

Offensively, the Mets were able to muster up six runs including five off of Nats starter Gio Gonzalez. The five runs all came in a big fourth inning, with Collin Cowgill and Daniel Murphy each driving in a pair. David Wright nearly got a hold of one, but had to settle for a triple. Ike Davis, who had two home runs yesterday off right-handed pitching, did what he usually does when a southpaw is on the mound and struck out three times. Sooner or later they’ll figure out they need to platoon him. Davis stranded three runners in scoring position in the process.

The Mets didn’t homer for the first time in eight home games at Citi Field this season.

The Mets obviously have two hug immediate concerns; a backend of the rotation which has totally sucked, and a bullpen that already needs some revamping.

Joe D.’s Crystal Ball:  Expect Shaun Marcum to be activated from the DL and Collin McHugh to get promoted from Las Vegas. Say goodbye to Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Hefner. In the bullpen, I expect that both Greg Burke and Josh Edgin are as good as gone. We could see Robert Carson get promoted and one of either Frank Francisco or Pedro Feliciano get activated after the weekend. I’m betting it’s Frank-Frank.

This game was underwhelming and a big letdown after Friday night’s prime time spectacle. If they don’t fix the backend of the rotation, the Mets will be 15 games out by the end of May. And so far, Zack Wheeler is not looking like a solution, let alone an option.

Sheets has put up ace-quality numbers when he is healthy, although he makes an annual visit to the DL in most seasons of his career. He has a career ERA of 3.72, career WHIP of 1.20, and career K/9 of 7.6. His best statistical season was 2004, even though the W-L record may be deceiving, he posted an astounding 8.25 K/BB ratio, and recorded a 20 strikeout game against the Atlanta Braves.

The Chicago Cubs have had discussions with Sheets lately, though they do not have the money that Sheets is looking for. The Rangers would have signed Sheets last offseason, had he not needed surgery. The Rangers have, however, signed Rich Harden, so they may have reached their quota of injury prone pitchers. The Mariners, Orioles, Yankees, and Mets are believed to have some interest.

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Free agent 1B Adam LaRoche has agreed to a deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks worth $5.5 million over 1 year. This comes after the well for LaRoche dried up after he turned down a 2-year $17.5 million deal from the San Francisco Giants. The Giants signed Aubrey Huff and moved on. The Atlanta Braves do not get a compensation pick, because they did not offer LaRoche (Type B) arbitration.

Remaining 1B available include Hank Blalock, Carlos Delgado, Mike Jacobs, Ryan Garko, and Russell Branyan.

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A name that has been thrown around as possible moving to 1B is Jermaine Dye. Dye has had terrible outfield defense, and at age 35, teams are wary of putting him out there full time. He was in discussions with the Texas Rangers before they signed Vladimir Guerrero. Dye has shown interest in moving to 1B if it would improve his contract offers. The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs have shown lukewarm interest. An ideal fit for Dye would be as DH in the American League, though if a National League team put him at 1B, they would get middle of the order power numbers. From 2004-09, Dye averaged 31 HR per season, only A-Rod has averaged more per year in the AL in that span. Signing Dye (Type A) would not cost a pick, as the White Sox did not offer arbitration.

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Yesterday, the New York Mets began construction on a Mets Hall of Fame outside the Jackie Robinson Rotunda. The Mets Hall of Fame will be adjacent to the Team Store. The move was announced during the season in response to criticism about a lack of Mets history.

Till Next Time

The Mets need a power hitter who can play left field or first base.  Hideki Matsui hit 28 HR for the Yankees in only 456 at-bats, but almost every one of his at-bats came as a designated hitter, as his balky knees prevented him from playing his customary left field position.  The guy’s knees are so fragile that he can hurt them just by swinging too hard, as the picture to the left suggests.

Matsui has had both of his knees repaired surgically and he is 35 years old.  Citi Field has far more room to cover in left field and higher walls to contend with.  There is no way Matsui could handle it at this stage of his career without looking foolish or getting hurt.

First base is another story.  His knees might be able to handle it, but will his glove?  He has no experience playing first base, but then again, Daniel Murphy wasn’t a first baseman either and he filled in quite nicely at the position from a defensive standpoint.  However, Murphy’s club-leading 12 HR were far less than the team would like at a position where power hitters normally play.

Matsui is coming off a 4-year, $52 million contract.  Although he will surely have to settle for far less money and years, he will still probably get a contract with an average annual value of $8 million or so.  Adam LaRoche is younger, does not have the injury history Matsui has and won’t be that much more expensive than Matsui (LaRoche made slightly over $7 million in 2009 and will probably be looking for a contract that averages about $10 million annually).

If the Mets don’t mind signing an older player with an injury history, they might as well re-sign Carlos Delgado for a year.  If they want a hitter with good power but don’t want to make a trade (such as for Prince Fielder), then Adam LaRoche is the way to go.  However, what about the incumbent first baseman, Daniel Murphy?

He started swinging a more powerful bat after the calendar flipped to September.  Over the team’s last 30 games, Murphy hit .293 with 5 HR and 17 RBI.  He also added 10 doubles and two triples over the same time period.  His .586 slugging percentage and .897 OPS over the last month of the season were comparable to the stats expected from a power-hitting first baseman.  It would be foolish to project a full season for Murphy based on 30 games worth of data, but it also isn’t unreasonable to suggest that he can turn into a 20 HR, 80-90 RBI player next season, especially if he has Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran getting on base in front of him for the entire season.

The best part about Murphy is that he’ll only be 25 by Opening Day and his salary is well under $1 million.  I say keep Murphy at first base to see if the power develops and if it doesn’t develop in 2010, then the Mets should consider acquiring a power-hitting first baseman for the 2011 season.  That year’s free agent class is far more attractive and includes more legitimate power hitters such as Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee and Carlos Peña, to name a few.  Of course, it’s also possible Ike Davis might be ready for the majors in 2011, assuming he’s not traded by then.

If Murphy stays at first base next season, then the Mets can use the money they saved by not signing a free-agent first baseman and use it on a power hitter to fill the left field position.  As much as I like Angel Pagan, I do understand the need for an extra home run threat in the lineup.  Angel Pagan cannot fill that role.  If the National League had a DH rule, Hideki Matsui would be fine.  However, since he’d have to play the field, he should have a big red “X” over his name.  I don’t really have a clear-cut favorite for the position, but I definitely have a “do not sign” card over one of the options.

To the front office, I beg you.  Please do not even consider signing Hideki Matsui unless if you’re secretly trying to reenact the movie “Major League” by signing players who you think will make this team worse.  The Mets still have fans who care about the product you’re putting on the field and would like you to use some common sense every once in a while.  Thank you.

The 2-spot as in the #2 pitcher, the Set Up man, and the 2-spot in the batting order.  Before you rip my head off about worrying about the second spot in the order, trust me when I say I’ll explain later, and let’s start with the pitching.

We know the Mets won’t have Top Dollar to spend this offseason, so let’s be hopefully-realistic.  Brandon Webb announced on Wednesday (Rotowire.com) that he would not accept an incentive-laden deal from Arizona, and would test free agency if his option is not picked up.  Now, I said hopefully-realistic, so Brandon Webb would appear out, right?  Not necessarily.  His option that he wants the D-Backs to pick up is worth $8.5 million.  That doesn’t mean we’d get him at $8.5 million, but it does make the day brighter.  Would I want Brandon Webb pitching behind Johan in the Mets rotation next season and beyond, even WITH the injury this year?  Absolutely.  Do I think the Mets could sign him considering their likely budget?  That remains to be seen (and I wouldn’t think the Wilpons would be willing to sign his paycheck, too, next year), but it brings up two interesting scenarios involving two free agent starting pitchers who missed the 2009 season.  Yes, I’m talking about Ben Sheets.

I know, I know, he’s a risk, but it is high-risk, high-reward.  Playing it safe doesn’t get you anywhere but the golf course in October.  I’m not suggesting throwing cash after either of them, I’m suggesting (if I can play GM for a moment) making them bid against each other.  Now, obviously, Webb is worth more than Sheets, but they are both in similar situations.  In 2008, Sheets had the better ERA (3.03 to 3.30), and Webb edged Sheets in K/9 (7.3-7.2) and WHIP (1.20-1.24).  As injury-prone as he is, Sheets has only pitched under 140 innings in a season once before 2009 and had NEVER pitched fewer than 100 in his career…not Webb’s 220 IP/year average (before 2009), but not as bad as you’d think.  I say put them in a bidding war of sorts, but sign Sheets to the contract and save the money for other spots.

Now let’s get to the Pen.  We moved Billy Wagner to Boston, so any hopes and dreams of him taking the role of setup man in 2010 are out the window.  JJ Putz was damaged goods when we got him, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid that he’s a total bust…if we can keep him.  After missing significant time, and with JJ no longer being a premier closer or even setup option, a one-year deal to keep him on again so he can try out for a closer’s job in 2011 may not be too far-fetched.  Plus, with guys like Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde likely on the market, he wouldn’t even have the benefit of being the best option of a weak field.  I’m not suggesting the Mets pick up the option, but try to negotiate a different deal that has some incentives.  Offer him $3 million and $3 million more in incentives ($1 million for ERA, $1 million for WHIP, and $1 million for the Playoffs, all with a minimum amount of IP).  He won’t make $5 million in this free agent market (we’d pay him the other $1 million in a buyout), and if he has another bad/injury-plagued season, we pay him only $2 million extra for it.

Now for the 2-spot in the order.  This is where we make the money back.  By keeping Angel Pagan in the 2-spot (behind a hopefully-healthy Jose) and in LF and deciding on it sooner rather than later, it allows us to do a few more things.  First, we can build his confidence and work with him on the things that he needs to work on (not going down that road right now).  Also, Dan Murphy gets another season (or 2) of experience in the Minors, and, most importantly, we save the money by not needing a new left fielder to sign Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock, Adam LaRoche, or another 1st Baseman.  On the flipside, keeping Murphy at first base and replacing Pagan with a slugger in LF bat takes that extra speed option out of the picture.  As much as I like Murphy, the team is better off signing a first baseman and keeping Pagan in the lineup rather than vice versa.

I do agree with Joe that Pagan needs work on the fundamentals and everything else, but let’s get hopefully-realistic…  We will not be able to afford to sign both a LF and 1B replacement this offseason, so it’s one or the other.  Murphy’s looked somewhat sharp at 1B at times, but let’s not say that he’s suddenly a Gold Glover.  And, no, Angel Pagan has not been perfect either, but as Joe pointed out, blunders aside, he’s been VERY good at the dish, and he, too, has had his moments of defensive glory.  One of these guys (at least) will be in the Mets 2010 Opening Day lineup plans, and I feel more comfortable with Pagan than with Murphy at this point.

Now for everyone’s favorite part: the math.  The Mets, in just Billy Wagner, Brian Schneider, and Carlos Delgado’s salaries, cut $27.4 million dollars from the books.  Let’s say the Wilpons decide to cut $7.4 million from the budget (for ease of numbers’ sake…it’s about 5% of the total 2009 salary).  That leaves us $20 million.  Sheets and Putz total to around $10 million ($7 million for Sheets seems reasonable to me considering his injury history and lack of Scott Boras as an agent), and our first base solution could come for about $6-8 million, leaving some more money for a rainy day, like November 14, 2139 (when Uncle Bernie is released from prison).  Jokes aside, adding these 2 players (and keeping JJ) for 2010 would greatly improve our team.  Just as a projection (assuming no other signings):

Lineup:
SS-Reyes
LF-Pagan
3B-Wright
CF-Beltran
1B-Johnson/Blalock
RF-Francoeur
C-Santos/Thole
2B-Castillo (only because I prefer placing speed and contact ability in the 8-hole instead of in the 7-hole)

Rotation:
Santana
Sheets
Pelfrey
Maine
Perez/Niese

Bullpen (Big 3):
F. Rodriguez
Putz
Feliciano

I’m not saying this offseason is as easy as 1-2-3 (SP-1B-RP) to go from 2009′s team to a pennant-contender, but it’s certainly a jump-start in the right direction and an instant and vast improvement.  There are other holes to fill (like the one between the ears of certain people within the Mets organization), but you’ve got to start somewhere, so I say start by looking out for #2.