Over in left field, Lucas Duda is getting on base and hitting with some serious power. He’s moving up in the order and Davis is moving down.

Assuming Sandy Alderson fulfills his promise and nabs a decent outfielder before the deadline and during the offseason, it’s a safe bet that the front office is going to have to make a decision as to which player is the first baseman of the future.

I think it’s reasonable to say that Ike isn’t going to finish the season with a sub-200 batting average. On the other hand, Duda’s going to come down to Earth at some point. These are two very streaky hitters we’re talking about here, and Ike is having his slump in April for the second season in a row.

But who’s the better player? Who’s the best fit at first if we get a legit outfield bat?

Small sample sizes tend to lead to knee-jerk reactions, and Lucas and Ike haven’t had equal seasons in terms of at-bats and playing time. I went over to Baseball Reference and grouped both Davis and Duda’s plate appearances in batches of 500, spaced out over intervals of 100. In other words, I looked at the stats from plate appearances 1-500, 101-600, 201-700, and down the line for each players career to date. I took four key stats – K%, BB%, HR% and BABIP (batting average on balls in play) – and graphed them to see if there were any trends.

Lets look at Ike’s chart:

The most alarming thing is that Ike’s BABIP has been plummeting. He’s making weak contact and popping up more and more each month. Basically, he’s becoming Adam Dunn without the walks. If his BABIP keeps trending down then we’re going to be seeing a lot of .220 seasons in the future. Lots of home runs are nice, but out of all the players who hit 30 or more homers in 2012, Ike had the second-worst OPS behind Josh Reddick.

Looking over at Duda’s chart, we see that he’s a little more consistent:

His strikeouts and walks are going up, and home run power has remained pretty consistent since he was called up in 2010. For all the talk about his explosive power potential, it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever hit more than 20-25 in a season.

All of these revelations shine a light on the fact that the Mets are stuck between a rock and a hard place at first base. You don’t even need charts or stats to see the Ike is lost at the plate. Every time he faces the pitcher he blinks his eyes like he’s been driving cross-country for thirty-six hours and the Red Bull is wearing off. If I had to choose one, I’d probably pick Duda just to be able to put someone with some range out in left field. At least Duda has a chance to get on base at a respectable pace.

In the meantime, Sandy should add “first base” to his shopping list.

* * * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Eli Brazell. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 16,000 Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

It was May of 2011 when Davis was hitting .302 with a .383 on-base percentage and resembling the slugger the Mets had trumpeted he could be when he ran into David Wright and hurt his left ankle and missed the rest of the season.

Then came last year, the virus and a miserable first half where he was almost sent back to the minors. He salvaged 2012 with a strong second half and 32 homers appeared to give him a pass going into this season, but he’s flailing again. How long before this season-opening slump becomes a first-half swoon?

Davis gave me an answer indicating what could be his problem this spring when I asked him about striking out, and whether he should concentrate on going to the opposite field and being more patient.

“I like to hit home runs,’’ Davis said in much the same tone a kid would say he likes to eat candy. Then, in what could be defined as defiance, added, “I’m a home run hitter; I’m going to strike out.’’

All that was missing was him sticking his tongue out and muttering, “so there.’’

Statistics can be interpreted any way you want, but Davis’ – both this year and his career – scream he might not be as good as he’s cracked up to be, and despite his manageable contract, is currently an offensive liability.

What else can you take out of a .129 batting average, .229 on-base percentage, .226 slugging percentage, one homer, two RBI and 11 strikeouts compared to four hits and four walks? Whether you are a traditionalist and believe in the basic stats, or are into the new math of baseball, it still adds up to a big hole in the middle of the order.

Go ahead, convince me those are good numbers.

Go ahead, convince me a 162-game average of .249 with 150 strikeouts to 72 walks, is somebody you build a team around.

General manager Sandy Alderson said strikeouts are acceptable if there’s a reasonable expectation of run production in return. He has driven in two this season.

These numbers, as is his .214 average against left-handers, are the result of poor plate habits. He lacks patience or pitch recognition; he either refuses or can’t shorten a swing that begins with a terrible hitch that gives him a long loop; and he doesn’t use the entire field. Either he doesn’t listen to the hitting coach or the hitting coach isn’t reaching him.

Davis can’t handle the low-and-away breaking pitches to the point where it is a mystery why pitchers would ever throw him a fastball. A manager should fine his pitchers if they threw Davis anything other than breaking stuff away. They should keep throwing him curveballs low-and-away until he proves capable of handling them.

Davis is rapidly becoming an all-or-nothing slugger in the mold of Dave Kingman, Rob Deer, Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. These are guys who are thrilling when they connect, but usually don’t.

If Davis continues on his current course, it will get to the point whether he changes his style and approach, or the Mets should change their first baseman.

It’s not difficult.

Bruney had a so-so season with the Yankees, but had clearly fallen out of favor as the season drew to an end.

Last season he went 5–0 with a 3.92 ERA in 44 relief appearances.

I think the Nationals may be one of the more active teams in the NL this off season.

Rumors are swirling that both Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn could be traded. The Mets definitely like Willingham, but they should also take a look at Adam Dunn who can play first base.

Dunn is one of a handful of players that could hit the ball out of any park including Citi Field where he hit the longest homerun in it’s short history.

When Jon Heyman and Ken Rosenthal confirmed that Adam Dunn could change teams again, I held out hope that the Mets would finally get Adam Dunn before the trade deadline. Especially when they had Cory Sullivan holding down the fort in leftfield while Sheffield was on the DL. But of course, even that scenario wasn’t enough to get Omar Minaya to react.

Last October, I devoted my very first blog to Adam Dunn (the first of many). One of the things I mentioned was that at age 28, he was about to enter his prime years and that he still could improve offensively. That has proven to be the case as Dunn enjoys his best season ever at the plate with a .280 batting average, the highest in his career, along with a .407 OBP, .563 SLG and an astonishing .907 OPS.

He is on pace for his sixth straight 40+ homerun season, and his sixth straight 100+ walks season. Both are incredible achievements. Given his age and his homerun pace, he may hit his 500th homerun before his 33rd birthday. Wow…

The Mets will try and have you believe that Citi Field is responsible for the power outage of the 2009 Mets. Don’t you believe it for one second. Just ask Mark Reynolds or Chase Utley or even our own Daniel Murphy. The Mets futility in homeruns is 100% attributable to the lack of legit power hitters in their lineup.

The Mets do not have a true power hitter who can muscle one out of the park with one mighty swing of the bat. Wright and Beltran are not your prototypical power hitters. Carlos Delgado was the Mets’ one true slugger, but he won’t be back in 2010 which begs the question; who will carry the load for the Mets in 2010?

A better question is, who will play leftfield and first base for the Mets in 2010?

Here is a look at just how prodigious a power hitter Adam Dunn is.

The Mets are beginning to show signs of parading Angel Pagan to us as our new everyday left fielder. Nothing official yet, but remember that you heard it here first. Pagan of course, hit his first homer in two years just a few days ago; a grand slam to beat the D-backs. The same GM who convinced us that Dan Murphy would be the everyday leftfielder in 2009, has his sights set on proclaiming the same about Pagan for 2010, just wait and see. Of course, observant Mets fans know all to well that Pagan is just a solid fourth outfielder at best.

The Mets may have another opportunity to erase their egregious error in judgment this past off season. They can make amends by taking action and pursuing Adam Dunn with haste if he is placed on waivers by the Nats as is expected. Considering where the Mets stand, they may be in a good position to make a deal for him if the Nats truly want to get what prospects they can for him.

I thought it was pretty ironic that Baseball Reference has Darryl Strawberry listed as the number one ranked similar batter to Dunn from ages 25 through 28. Or maybe it’s just a good omen?

Lets not forget that Dunn is also one of the most durable players in the game, having averaged 158 games played in his last five seasons. He has played in 105 of the Nat’s 106 games this season. That’s something that should be very appealing to the Mets these days.

Does Dunn have his faults? Of course he does, who doesn’t? But I can assure you that he’d be a better defender in leftfield than Daniel Murphy ever was, and that he’ll strike out a tad bit more than David Wright, but with a heck of a lot more homers (29-7) that would have resulted in a dozen less one-run losses, if not more, had he been here from the start.

He won’t win you any gold gloves out there, but he gives the Mets a better chance of hoisting another World Series flag over Citi Field, than Fernando Tatis, Angel Pagan and Cory Sullivan ever would.

Look, it may be too late to salvage the 2009 season. But adding Dunn now would be a good first step toward putting out a much more improved offense in 2010, especially in the power department.

With a 44-49 record, the Mets are in fourth place in the National League East, a full 10 games behind the first place Phillies and within striking distance of the Braves and Marlins.  While they are closer to the Wild Card lead than the division lead, trailing the Rockies by 6½ games, the Mets have to pass eight teams to wrest the lead away from Colorado.  This puts them in a precarious situation, where they’re not officially out of it, but they also know the road to the 2009 playoffs is covered with plenty of potholes and detours that could very well cause the Mets to miss the boat, regardless of what they do.

There appeared to be some discussion about Roy Halladay, although no names were actually bandied about.  I don’t think acquiring Halladay would make much sense for the 2009 season.  Halladay will probably make no more than 13 or 14 starts between now and the end of the season.  He is an excellent pitcher, but no one would expect him to go 13-0 or 14-0 in those starts.  Assuming two or three no-decisions, at best he’d go 10-2.  By himself, he would not be enough to push the Mets past the Phillies, meaning they’d also have to get more players in the deal or in a separate deal.  That would surely deplete the farm system of all its talent.  The Mets would be better off showcasing Jon Niese in the majors for the rest of the season and hope he continues his strong pitching with the big club.  Then, if Halladay hasn’t signed a long-term deal with whichever team he winds up with, Niese would become more attractive in a deal and the Mets might not need to part with four or five prospects to get him before the start of the 2010 season.

The list of pitchers who can file for free agency after the 2009 season does not have many top starters.  Some pitchers, like Josh Beckett and Cliff Lee, have reasonable club options for 2010.  Cliff Lee is an intriguing pitcher.  He is currently pitching for the underachieving Cleveland Indians.  As with Halladay, the Mets might have to part with a number of prospects to acquire him.  The Mets would be better off waiting until the offseason if they want to become serious players for Cliff Lee.

If the Mets think they have any chance of making one last run in 2009, they should focus more on hitters than pitchers.  With the way the Phillies are playing, it is clear that the Mets cannot wait for their hitters to return from the disabled list.  Although they are good players, the Angel Pagans and the Daniel Murphys and the Alex Coras are not going to lead any team into the postseason alone.  They need players who can drive the ball for extra base hits.  It’s clear the Mets are not a home run hitting team, but the team they’re putting on the field now isn’t even an extra base hitting team.  The Mets might hit for average, but when that average is boosted by a string of singles, it’s going to take three hits per inning to score just one run.  That’s not going to help any team contend.  Just to throw some names out there, perhaps an Adam Dunn or an Alex Rios could be acquired.  They won’t cost the Mets the farm system and can help the team beyond 2009.

Some people might not like Dunn because of his high strikeout total.  He does strike out quite a bit, but doesn’t it seem like more Met rallies have been killed by double plays than strikeouts?  All year, the Mets have been at or near the top of the league in fewest strikeouts, even with David Wright racking up all those frequent whiffer miles.  Dunn is much more of a fly ball hitter than ground ball hitter, so there’s less of a chance for him to end a rally with a double play ball.  Although I never want to see a Mets player strike out, I’ll always take a strikeout over an inning-ending double play.

Alex Rios is another player who can drive the ball into gaps, as evidenced by his 22 doubles, two triples and 10 HR this season.  As a bonus, he has been gifted with excellent speed and can beat out more than his share of potential double play grounders.

Both Dunn and Rios are playing for teams that are no longer in contention.  They will not be dealt for a bag of marbles, but the Mets won’t have to empty out their farm system for them either.  As each day passes and the Mets continue to watch the Phillies and Rockies put up Ws, their playoff hopes are becoming more bleak.  Even if the Mets continue to lose ground before the trade deadline, they don’t have to be sellers.  However, if they are going to be buyers, it’ll have to be for players who will help them for more than just the remainder of the 2009 season.  Otherwise, there’s no point in being either a buyer or a seller.  Class dismissed!

Today’s Quote

“I just want to make sure that everything is going to be fine and it’s not going to get worse,” Beltran said. “Mentally I know something is wrong.” (Beltran talking about having an MRI on his knee Tuesday)

Pitching

First run: 7th inning, Dunn homered to left.

Hitting

First run: 2nd inning, R-Martinez doubled to right center, Santos scored.
Second run: 3rd inning, Tatis singled to shallow center, Pagan scored, Castillo to third, Sheffield to second.
Third run: 3rd inning, Martinez grounded into fielder’s choice to first, Castillo scored, Tatis out at second, Sheffield to third.
Fourth, fifth, sixth run: 7th inning, Sheffield homered to left, Castillo and Wright scored

1. Pagan: 2-4   .296
2. Castillo: 1-3   .283
3. Wright: 2-4   .349
4. Sheffield: 2-3   .291
   a- Reed: 0-0   .304
5. Tatis: 1-3   .278
6. F-Martinez: 0-3   .000
7. Santos: 1-4   .268
8. R-Martinez: 1-4   .100
9. Hernandez: 0-4   .111

a- Reed came in for defense in ninth inning.

HR: Sheffield (5)
RBI: R-Martinez (2), Tatis (10), F-Martinez (1), Sheffield 3 (15,16,17)
R: Santos (10), Pagan (4), Castillo 2 (24,25), Wright (30), Sheffield (22) 
2B: Santos (4), R-Martinez (1)
K: F-Martinez 2 (1,2), Wright 2 (45,46), Pagan (8)
BB: Castillo 2 (18,19), Sheffield (20), Pagan (5)
HBP: F-Martinez, Tatis

Baserunning/Fielding

SB: Wright (11), Pagan (4)
DP: 3 (Castillo-Martinez-Tatis), (2 Martinez-Castillo-Tatis)

Additional Info

Jose Reyes and Ryan Church were sent to the 15-day DL.

Mets brought up top prospect Fernando Martinez who Made his major league debut.

Mets purchased 31-year-old shortstop Wilson Valdez from the Indians.

John Franco will represent the Mets in the 2009 Amateur draft.

Center fielder Carlos Beltran (tibia) is already expected to miss the next two games.

Alex Cora will delay surgery until after the season, he will be back next week.

Livan Hernandez is the first Mets starting pitcher to go into the 8th or 9th inning.

He tossed the first complete game of 2009 for the Mets.

1,000 career hit for Adam Dunn.

Oliver Perez‘s start in AAA-Buffalo: 4.1 innings, 1 run, 3 hits, 5 walks, 5 strikeouts, 2.08 ERA.

Aflac trivia question: Who is the only player to win 3 batting titles and retire batting under .300?
Aflac trivia answer: Carl Yastrzemski (.286)

Game Ball

Livan Hernandez (complete game victory)

Game ends: 9:51 P.M.

Up Next

Johan Santana (6-2, 1.50) will go up against rookie pitcher Jordan Zimmerman (2-1, 5.71) for the sweep at CitiField.

The Nationals were in negotiations with Mark Teixiera before falling short. They did, however, sign perennial 40 HR outfielder Adam Dunn to a 2-year, $20 million contract. They traded for power hitting outfielder Josh Willingham and starter Scott Olsen. They lost Tim Redding to the Mets, but essentially replaced him with Daniel Cabrera formerly of the Orioles.

The Nationals have a logjam in the outfield, with 5 OF’s after 3 spots. Adam Dunn will start every day, the only question is where. Dunn would typically play LF, but he could also play 1B if current 1B Nick Johnson gets injured. If they move Dunn to 1B full-time, then they can get Willingham’s bat into the lineup. Expect Dunn to play 1B against lefthanders so that they can get the right-handed Willingham in. Lastings Milledge is the starting CF, and that probably will not change. Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns are after the RF spot, but it is likely to be Kearns to start the season.

Ryan Zimmerman will start at 3B, and he is the cornerstone of the Nationals organization. However, they hope that his shoulder tear is behind him after it cost him 56 games last season. Zimmerman will likely bat 3^rd in front of Dunn. Johnson/Dunn will cover the other corner. Anderson Hernandez was in-line to start at 2B, but injury forces either Willie Harris or Ronnie Belliard to hold that position down at the beginning of the season. Christian Guzman, Washington’s lone all-star last season, seeks to improve upon his surprising season last season, batting .316. Jesus Flores is the catcher.

The rotation will consist of lefties John Lannan and Scott Olsen, and righties Daniel Cabrera, Shairon Martis, and top prospect Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman shows a ton of potential, but the Nationals would rather have him in AAA to start the season. The problem is that there is no one else proved capable of being a major league starter, and Zimmerman had a great spring. Keep an eye on him in the next few years, he could be good. Joel Hanahan will be the closer.

Notes: The Nationals, as a result of failing to sign last year’s 9^th pick Aaron Crow, will have the 10^th overall pick in this year’s draft, in addition to the number 1 overall…The Nationals are in-line to select super-prospect Steven Strasburg, the Lerner family can afford his signing bonus, but not $50 million… The Nationals attendance was middle-of-the-pack last year in the stadium’s first full year, although at times, the attendance was higher than their radio audience… The highest attendance at Nationals Park last year was not for a game, but for Pope Benedict XVI’s visit… The Nationals have 4 HR and 10 RBI to show for a 2-year $10 million deal that they gave to Dimitri young last year, Young starts the year on the DL.

The Nationals are a team in progress, but the highlight of their season will be the June draft.

***

The answer to yesterday’s Movie Star to Met 6 Degrees of Separation:

Brad Pitt was in Troy with Orlando Bloom, who was in Pirates of the Caribbean with Johnny Depp, who will co-star in Public Enemies with Christian Bale, who was in Batman: The Dark Knight with Michael Caine, who was in Miss Congeniality with Sandra Bullock, who was in 2 Weeks Notice with Mike Piazza.

The next Movie Star to Met 6 Degrees of Separation will appear in the Atlanta Braves preview.

Till Next TimeNL East