Well, sort of.

This past Friday the Miami Marlins designated former-Met Jon Rauch for assignment and in the past 24 hours there have been conflicting reports regarding his potential release. If talk of his release is accurate, the Mets should be biting.

As my colleague Ed Leyro pointed out back in February, this Mets ballclub doesn’t quite measure up in comparison to last year.

With the non-tendering of the 6’7″ Mike Pelfrey, and the non-signings of the 6’10″ Chris Young and the burly 6’11″ Rauch, the Amazin’s lost their three tallest players. At the time of Ed’s article, not a single Met on the active roster was listed at over 6″4″, however both LaTroy Hawkins (6’5″) and Scott Rice (6’6″) have since trumped that mark.

Rauch has had an unfortunate start to the year, going 1-2 with an ugly 7.56 ERA in just 15 outings with Miami. His stats across the board are pretty unsightly, however given that he was one of the more dependable arms out of the ‘pen last season, Rauch is worth taking a chance on.

The now 34-year old has a career 3.80 ERA–discounting this year–and pitched effectively in 2012 with the Mets to the tune of a 3.59 ERA and 0.988 WHIP. Given the lowly state of the Mets’ bullpen that has somehow found a way to be even worse than last year, he is at least worth taking a look at.

If Alderson and company were to choose to take a flyer on him, Rauch could once again stand tall as a go-to arm of out of the mess known as the bullpen. What is there to lose?

What does everyone think? Anyone up for a Rauch reunion?

That 2012 team lost 88 games, how many will this year’s version lose? Shockingly, this team, now in the third year of the Sandy Alderson era, is on pace to lose 101 games.

I used ESPN’s Attendance Tracker and the team is bleeding not only money – but fans…

Average Attendance

2010 – 32,401

2011 – 30,108

2012 – 28,035

2013 – 25,895

The Mets are down an average of 6,905 fans per game since the 2010 season. That equates to over a half-million fans that are unwilling to buy tickets to see the current product on the field.

Remember how hot Subway Series tickets used to be?

In a recent article by Mark LaMonica of Newsday, he reported that the Mets are so bad and unwatchable, even Subway Series ticket sales, which at one time were sold-out in hours – are very available and selling for less than the exorbitant prices they used to go for.

The combined average price for the four-game Subway Series (May 27-30) this year is $133 as of Monday, according to TiqIQ.com, a ticket reseller that aggregates ticket prices across multiple secondary markets. That’s down 13 percent from 2012, 19 percent from 2011 and 34 percent from 2010.

Don’t think it’s the on-field performance alone. This team suffers from a severe lack of star power, and I would hate to think how much worse things would be if not for a holdover by the name of Matt Harvey. He alone is hauling in over 5,000 more fans per game than when anyone else starts.

Think those fans who opted out of buying tickets are staying home and watching instead?

Think again…

According to this Daily News article, the SNY viewership numbers are even worse and almost double the percentage of decline in attendance from last season.

The Mets on SNY are averaging a household rating of 1.91, down 22% from the same point in 2012. Among men 25-54, the key demographic, the Mets are averaging a 1.05 rating, down 15% from 2012.

Things have gotten so bad that most games are now a two-man booth. It’s no longer Gary, Keith and Ron and more like Gary, Keith or Ron.

Every minute of each telecast is a non-stop barrage of Cholula Hot Sauce and MetsBlog promos. Even the score bug has drop down ads every half inning.

It’s not just the team on the field that is sinking (and stinking)  - it’s everything on down including ticket sales and worst of all, SNY viewership.

Everything is being sponsored by someone whether it’s the game broadcast and even the posts on MetsBlog themselves. The Wilpons are trying to squeeze every penny they can and in anyway they can to stay above water. The SNY broadcast and editorial content on their blog network are both working in step with ownership on everything.

I think most Met fans are just sick of everything being done on the cheap – so they don’t pay to watch the team play, and many more don’t even bother to tune in and watch either. Except when Matt Harvey is pitching.

I don’t know how much longer they can stay in this, ummm, whatever you want to call this mode… But I do know this… It’s starting to feel a lot like 1978 around here.

GRANT’S TOMB

Updated Post 1:44 PM

MLB Trade Rumors just posted something that would add to the debate on Choo as a potential acquisition for the Mets in 2014. I also updated the original post to indicate that Choo’s best position is right-field.

Of course, as with most free agents, Choo’s next contract will cover post-prime years, perhaps age 31-35.  With Boras doing the negotiating, we can’t rule out a sixth year or a salary in the $18-20MM range, plus the loss of a draft pick.

Are you guys ready for another Winter of debating the loss of a pick, even if in the Mets case it’s a second round pick based on where this season is heading?

Original Post 12:44

Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, had an article this morning suggesting the Mets should make a strong attempt at signing Reds center fielder Shin-Soo Choo if they are serious about contending in 2014. Choo is a free agent at the end of this season.

Choo, 30, was acquired by the Reds in the offseason for highly regarded shortstop prospect Didi Gregorious and outfielder Drew Stubbs. According to Kepner, Cincinnati Choo was charged targeted Choo to fix their problems in the leadoff spot, which produced a .254 on-base percentage last season. So far, Choo has delivered in a big way, ranking second in the National League with a .455 on-base percentage.

The Scott Boras client has always been able to hit for average and get on base as his career .386 OBP would attest. Going into this season, he has averaged 38 doubles and 90 runs per season in his career. He also can give the Mets power and speed while providing solid range and defense in center field, though right field is his best position. The left-handed batter has averaged 15 home runs and 20 stolen bases in a typical season for him and is on a pace to smash both of those marks in his walk year with the Reds.

“He’s the big reason why we are where we are right now,” said Brandon Phillips of the Reds, who hold the second-best record in the National League. “Playing against him when he was with the Indians, I always told everybody he’s one of the best all-around players in baseball — underrated. Right now he’s just being himself. It’s a blessing to have him over here.”

Kepner also adds that the South Korean native, might be a sensation in New York, whose metropolitan area has the second-largest Korean population in the United States, behind Los Angeles.

Obviously, I love Choo and had wanted the Mets to go after him last offseason, and even though he’ll be a year older I would still have no problem bringing him on board for the 2014 season and beyond. I’m assuming it would require at least a four-year commitment and the bidding from other teams will be aggressive. That’s the part that frightens me – or should I say frightens Sandy Alderson. You see, I’ll maintain what I’ve been saying all along about him and that is that he doesn’t have the stomach for these types of negotiations. To quote myself from last October, “Alderson doesn’t have the ability to go after a desirable and marketable free-agent, it sin’t in his DNA.”

There will be other outfield options out there next offseason, assuming they are not re-signed. Jacoby Ellsbury and  Carlos Beltran are among them.

The problem is will Alderson be willing to spend and come out strong?

Or will it be another Winter of waiting for the market to settle to his liking, which of course never happens leaving him to scamper and pick the bones of whatever carcass he can find on the scrap heap?

Aardsma was originally drafted by the San Francisco in the first round of the 2003 amateur draft.

He has spent parts of seven seasons in the major leagues with five different teams. most recently with the Yankees in 2012.

Aardsma owns a career 4.22 ERA in 255 appearances all in relief. After the Yankees released him early last month, he signed with the Miami Marlins on April 13 and then was released again on May 15.

He will report to Triple-A Las Vegas. This might get ugly…

1B/3B COLIN MORAN, NORTH CAROLINA 

Player Profile:

Position:  3B/1B
Height:  6-3
Weight:  215
Bats/Throws:  L-R
Birthdate:  Jan. 28, 1992
College:  North Carolina
Projected Draft Round:  1

Scouting Grades:

Hitting: Present 55 – Future 55
Power: Present 55 – Future 60
Speed: Present 40 – Future 50
Fielding: Present 50 – Future 50
Arm Strength: Present 60 – Future 60

2013 Season

Colin Moran had a collegiate slash line of .347/.439/.522 heading into the 2013 season. Through the first 51 games of this season, the left-handed slugger is batting .385/.516/.646 with nine doubles, one triple, and 13 home runs.

Colin Moran is bet to go among the top ten picks, but his bonus demands could see him drop and the Mets might get lucky at No. 11. That’s assuming they are prepared to go over slot. Moran has grown from the top freshman in the country to one of the nation’s most dangerous hitters and a top draft prospect for No. 1 North Carolina. The junior has the chance to become the fourth player in NCAA history to lead the nation in runs scored and RBIs. He entered the week first in RBIs and tied for the lead in runs scored. If he keeps it up, he could join Robin Ventura of Oklahoma State (1986), Marshall McDougall of Florida State (1999) and Jake Lowery of James Madison (2011) as the only players in NCAA history to lead the country in both categories for a season.

John Sickels Says:

Moran has a lot going for him. He is a tall, lean player similar to his former #1 overall pick uncle, B.J. Surhoff. While Moran has played quite a bit of third base at North Carolina, I think his future is likely across the diamond at first. At the plate, he is quite the talent. When he is in the lineup of any team, they are better. He has a very good approach. He has a pretty swing and has above average power potential though I wouldn’t expect it early in his career. He is the type of player I could see hitting .300 in the majors. He is one of the safer picks in the draft and I would have a hard time seeing him not reach the majors and be a useful major leaguer. While the ceiling isn’t a future star, more of a solid regular, he I expect him to go off the board early.

Keith Law Says:

Moran is the most advanced bat in the class this year, including an absurd 39 BB/8 K ratio as of April 28, but faces questions about whether he can stay at third base and how well the swing will play in pro ball. At the plate, Moran has a great eye and generates good bat speed, with solid extension through the zone for average power or a tick above. He takes a long stride forward in the box but keeps his weight back, also keeping his hands very deep, with good hip rotation as well. It’s not a pretty swing, and it’s not that consistent — his hands come set in a different spot from swing to swing, and on some swings his front side goes soft (where he rolls over his front foot). He must have extremely strong wrists as well, because he’s a little late getting the barrel of the bat into the zone but still manages to make a lot of hard contact.

At third, he has outstanding hands and an easy throwing motion, along with great arm strength, so anything he gets to at third, he handles well, getting rid of the ball quickly. He’s a fringy runner and his feet are not quick — he tends to run a little flat-footed and often has trouble getting his feet started in the field because he’s set up on his heels. However once he gets moving, he’s fine, and should end up with average range at the position, or maybe a touch below, making up for it with sure-handedness and a plus arm.

If third doesn’t work — MLB teams do seem to emphasize third base defense today more than in the past — he’d have to move to first. He’s almost certainly a top five pick, but I am just concerned enough about the unorthodox swing to rate him slightly lower than that.

Colin Moran says:

Regarding his success at the plate:

“I’ve just felt comfortable and I’ve gotten into a groove. I have to give a lot of credit to the guys around me for getting on base a lot. I like to hit with guys on base. There’s been a lot of situations where guys have to come at me with strikes because the bases are loaded and the guys ahead of me have such good on-base percentages.”

Lets Go To The Videotape

Frank Francisco

Francisco hasn’t pitched since he last appeared in an inning of relief for Single-A St. Lucie. He hasn’t allowed a run five innings over five relief appearances with them.

yesterday, Adam Rubin reported that Francisco would head to Double-A Binghamton to continue his rehab, but obviously that probably won’t happen now.

Francisco had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow in December and was shutdown early in Spring Training after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. He started the season on the disabled list.

After a woeful season in 2012, the Mets were hoping for a rebound from their closer who was signed to a $12 million dollar, two year deal by Sandy Alderson before the 2012 season. He is still owed $6.5 million for 2013.

Even the 195-strikeout pace Davis is on wouldn’t be as excruciating if the 26-year-old would demonstrate a hint of humility after getting punched out time after time.

But that’s the issue. He hasn’t. Through his four MLB campaigns, Davis seems to believe he’s entitled to borderline calls at the plate, which—for better or worse—are not given to players in their early 20s all that often. Although there is a way to eradicate that unwritten rule: to get on the umpiring crew’s good side. MLB Etiquette 101.

Either Ike isn’t aware of that, or believes he can complain his way to the benefit of the doubt. Four seasons, 364 games, and nearly 1,500 plate appearances into his Major League career, and Davis still can’t grasp the very simple concept of taking his lumps and sitting down quietly. This, unfortunately, is what deserves an entire post.

Davis has been prone to strikeouts over his career—that cat was let out the bag years ago. But it’s never been more apparent than in 2013. His strikeout percentage is up around 30 percent (chart via Fangraphs), which is more than five percent higher than in any prior season.

Through April 28, eight of Of Davis’ 26 Ks in 2013 have been punchouts. That equates to 31 percent of his strikeouts coming with the bat on his shoulder, which is a five percent increase from 2012 and seven percent higher than the league average.

I broke down the tape of those eight backwards-Ks, and found that Ike did his very best to show up the home plate ump on six of the eight strike-three calls. That comes out to a 75 percent Ike-Davis-Being-Immature rating—yeah, you can call me a sabermagician.

Note: One GIF from 4/10 vs. PHI was lost in the heat of battle . Davis has also struck out looking twice since 4/28 that I haven’t been able to retrieve video from. With or without the missing clips, the point still stands. Ike won’t be getting the close ones any time soon.

Included are strikezone plots for corresponding at-bats from Brooks Baseball.

Example 1: April 4, Inning 1

Example 2: April 4, Inning 8

Example 3: April 7, Inning 8

Example 4: April 16, Inning 1

Example 5: April 20, Inning 2

I hate to exert this much energy ranting against Ike, because I’ve been on his side of the Keep-Davis-or-Keep-Duda argument all along. His second-half numbers from 2012 are downright scary, and I didn’t think it was outrageous to expect the ball to continue rolling in that direction in 2013. Perhaps I was wrong.

The point here is that sometimes Davis has a legit gripe with the home plate ump. But acting out like a spoiled child leaving the toy store empty handed isn’t exactly the way to present an argument to an umpire (a grown man).

It’s an issue that Davis was approached about as early as 2010 as a rookie. Nearly three years later, it’s still an issue.

Ike’s struggles during his ABs are one issue—and don’t be mistaken, they’re plentiful—but its the lack of judgement after them that are especially concerning as he transitions from a precocious neophyte to a whiny veteran.

Follow me on Twitter at @JSDorn6.

Stats and graphics obtained from Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, and Brooks Baseball.

Over in left field, Lucas Duda is getting on base and hitting with some serious power. He’s moving up in the order and Davis is moving down.

Assuming Sandy Alderson fulfills his promise and nabs a decent outfielder before the deadline and during the offseason, it’s a safe bet that the front office is going to have to make a decision as to which player is the first baseman of the future.

I think it’s reasonable to say that Ike isn’t going to finish the season with a sub-200 batting average. On the other hand, Duda’s going to come down to Earth at some point. These are two very streaky hitters we’re talking about here, and Ike is having his slump in April for the second season in a row.

But who’s the better player? Who’s the best fit at first if we get a legit outfield bat?

Small sample sizes tend to lead to knee-jerk reactions, and Lucas and Ike haven’t had equal seasons in terms of at-bats and playing time. I went over to Baseball Reference and grouped both Davis and Duda’s plate appearances in batches of 500, spaced out over intervals of 100. In other words, I looked at the stats from plate appearances 1-500, 101-600, 201-700, and down the line for each players career to date. I took four key stats – K%, BB%, HR% and BABIP (batting average on balls in play) – and graphed them to see if there were any trends.

Lets look at Ike’s chart:

The most alarming thing is that Ike’s BABIP has been plummeting. He’s making weak contact and popping up more and more each month. Basically, he’s becoming Adam Dunn without the walks. If his BABIP keeps trending down then we’re going to be seeing a lot of .220 seasons in the future. Lots of home runs are nice, but out of all the players who hit 30 or more homers in 2012, Ike had the second-worst OPS behind Josh Reddick.

Looking over at Duda’s chart, we see that he’s a little more consistent:

His strikeouts and walks are going up, and home run power has remained pretty consistent since he was called up in 2010. For all the talk about his explosive power potential, it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever hit more than 20-25 in a season.

All of these revelations shine a light on the fact that the Mets are stuck between a rock and a hard place at first base. You don’t even need charts or stats to see the Ike is lost at the plate. Every time he faces the pitcher he blinks his eyes like he’s been driving cross-country for thirty-six hours and the Red Bull is wearing off. If I had to choose one, I’d probably pick Duda just to be able to put someone with some range out in left field. At least Duda has a chance to get on base at a respectable pace.

In the meantime, Sandy should add “first base” to his shopping list.

* * * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader Eli Brazell. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 16,000 Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

Matt Harvey was named the Pitcher of the Month for April, the first Met to win the honor since R.A. Dickey last did so in June, 2012.

Harvey, 24, went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 46 strikeouts in six April starts. His four wins tied for the National League lead, while his 1.56 ERA is third in the league for the month. His 46 strikeouts are tied for fourth in the league.

Harvey became the first pitcher in since 1900 to win his first four starts of the season, while allowing no more than 10 hits combined in those four starts.

This the second honor for Harvey this season as he was named National League Player of the Week during April 8-14. That was the week when he flirted with a no-hitter through 6.2 innings against the Twins in a frigid Minnesota.

Harvey now stands at 7-5 with a 2.26 ERA in 16 career starts, having given up only 63 hits in 99 2/3 innings.

It’s the first career monthly award for Harvey, who was selected ahead of pitchers such as Pittsburgh’s Jason Grilli, who logged 10 saves and a 0.82 ERA; San Francisco’s Madison Bumgarner, who posted a 3-0 mark and 1.55 ERA; and Adam Wainwright, who went 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA.

In what has been a month full of questions, concerns and a losing record to start the season, seeing Harvey win this award is certainly one of the bright spots.

Congrats Matt, may you win many more. Hey, if he keeps this up he may even win a Cy Young.

Despite the incredible effort by Jeremy Hefner on Tuesday night, the Mets were unable to get just three more outs as a ninth inning meltdown capped off by a Brandon Lyon wild pitch handed the Marlins their second straight walk-off victory against the Amazin’s and their first series win of the season.

Surprisingly enough, the Mets have become quite used to the demoralizing oddity known as the walk-off wild pitch. In fact, last night was the third time in four seasons that Flushing’s Finest have allowed the game-winning run to score on a pitch to the backstop.

On May 14 of the 2010 season, Johan Santana was on the mound in a premiere matchup with then-Marlins ace Josh Johnson. Santana went seven innings allowing just one unearned run on six hits and seven strikeouts. He left for a pinch-hitter with the game tied at one. After pitching a scoreless eighth, reliever Fernando Nieve took the hill to pitch a perfect ninth to send the game into extra innings. After getting Jorge Cantu to fly to left for the first out of the tenth, Nieve walked Cody Ross and quickly allowed a Ronny Paulino single to put Ross at third. Then on the first pitch to Dan Uggla, Nieve bounced it to the plate past Rod Barajas as Ross raced home to win it for the Marlins. The walk-off wild pitch would be the first victory for the Fish in what would be a four game sweep of the Mets.

Fast forward two years to July of 2012… Jon Niese is having a heck of a game against the Nationals Ross Detwiler. They both exit after seven, Niese surrendering one run and punching out eight, Detwiler spotless, giving the Nats a 1-0 advantage. They would go up 2-0 after a Steve Lombardozzi RBI double. Comes the top of the ninth, the Mets put up a three spot to go ahead 3-2. However the lead would be short lived as Bobby Parnell would blow the save, allowing the Nats to tie it and send it to extra innings. Josh Thole doubled to drive in Daniel Murphy and give the Amazin’s their second lead in as many innings. Tim Byrdak came on to close out the tenth and after a game tying, RBI triple to the rookie sensation Bryce Harper, he walked the bases loaded and was lifted for Pedro Beato. Beato, on a 1-2 pitch to Tyler Moore, threw a breaking ball that went right past Josh Thole, allowing Ryan Zimmerman to slide home and win it for the Nats by a score of 5-4.

Then we have last night. A suddenly hot Jeremy Hefner came in to finish off a shutout, and came away with a loss as both the tying and go-ahead runs were charged to the 27-year old despite a meltdown by Brandon Lyon capped off by a wild pitch of his own that bounced off the glove of Anthony Recker and ricocheted towards the home dugout.

Before this recent stretch, the last time the Mets lost a ballgame on a walk-off wild pitch dates back all the way to 1981 when Mike Marshall let one fly at Houston. You have to go all the way back to the beginning of the Reagan administration for that one! Meanwhile all three of these most recent “wild” endings have occurred under the same commander in chief. 

Not a theme the Mets would like to continue, however with the quality–or lack there of–of arms they continue to acquire for the ‘pen, what can you expect? Sure Brandon Lyon is supposed to be a solid set-up man, however that hasn’t been the case up to this point. You get what you pay for; you get out of it what you put in. When you don’t go and add significant arms for innings seven through nine and beyond, losses such as those mentioned above are going to happen.

As I expected, the Mets have demoted Josh Edgin to Double-A Binghamton to clear a roster spot for Shaun Marcum.

I even speculated that he should go to Binghamton which is where he ends up.

We’ll see him again, I’m sure…

Updated on 4/26

I got an interesting email from Kevin (K Maxx) this morning who asked, “if Terry Collins is so concerned about Josh Edging being overworked, why does he keep overworking him?”

I did a quick check and was shocked to see that Edgin made 75 appearances last season between the Mets and the minors. That would have placed him tenth in the NL.

The 75 appearances was the largest workload of his pro career and more than a 50% increase from his previous high of 49 appearances.

So far this season, Edgin has appeared in 10 of the first 20 games and is on pace for 81 appearances.

K Maxx may have a point.

Original Post 4/24

What happened to the Josh Edgin who came up and immediately became one of the more reliable and dominant relievers out of our bullpen last year?

As if his his 10.80 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in 10 appearances wasn’t bad enough, I took a quick glance at his splits and it really showed me how bad things really have gotten for Edgin since last season.

• Versus LH Batters – 368

• Versus RH Batters – .333

Those batting averages against are just plain awful to look at and clearly a sign that something is amiss. He no longer exudes the confidence he once did and his entire demeanor on the mound has done a complete 180. This is not the same intimidating and effective force we saw in 2012. It’s as if he was replicated by one of those giant seapods from Invasion of the Body Snatchers?

Good God, what’s happened to Josh Edgin?

Edgin burst onto the scene sporting a fastball with that had great late life and came in at 93-95 mph. The velocity and the movement are just not there anymore. His slider, which was so effective last season, is now “big and sloppy and flat”, according to Bobby Ojeda.

Terry Collins had a lot to say about Edgin after the game, and to say he’s very concerned is an understatement.

“One of the things I’m a little concerned about is that last year Josh Edgin made a lot of appearances. He also warmed up in the bullpen a lot of times and then didn’t come into the game. That also puts a lot of stress on your arm. Edgin pitched a lot last season and I’m afraid his arm isn’t responding well. I’m a little concerned that’s what we’re facing right now with Edgin.”

“I’ve had pitchers in the past where after their first full season the arm doesn’t respond well. I think that’s what’s happening. We’re going to talk to him and work with him tomorrow and try to see how we can get him back to what he was.”

You’ve lost that lovin’ feeling.

Collins was visibly frustrated while talking about Edgin and it sounded to me like his patience may be running out on his young southpaw.

“Command is everything when you’re in the major leagues,” Collins said. “Right now Edgin needs to do what got him here if he wants to stay here.”

When the Mets announced that they were calling up Robert Carson, you may remember I thought Edgin was as good as gone. Instead the Mets decided to part with Greg Burke. That was surprising to me. Now I see no other solution than to send Edgin to Triple-A Vegas or even Double-A Binghamton to recharge his batteries and get some of that confidence he once had back.

Edgin has lost his edge

For those of you that missed it, there was a strange play that took place during the Detroit Tigers’ 7-5 win over the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday night. Quite frankly, I’ve never seen anything like it before. Here’s what happened along with the accompanying video from MLB.com.

During the third inning with the Tigers trailing 4-2 and base runners Prince Fielder on third and Victor Martinez at second, Jhonny Peralta lined a single to right field to score Prince Fielder. It should have ended there, but Martinez rounded third and started chugging to third, opting to test the powerful arm of Jeff Francoeur.

The former Met fired a bullet to home that essentially made Martinez a dead duck. But instead of trying to barrel over Royals catcher Salvador Perez who had the plate blocked and was waiting for the slow-footed Tigers DH to make contact. Only a few feet from home plate, Martinez suddenly decides to make a hard right turn and proceeds to head to the dugout. The home plate umpire ruled Martinez out for running outside the baseline and there was never a play at the plate.

There’s something seriously wrong here. I get that the oft-injured Victor Martinez was probably thinking of trying to avoid another stint on the DL, but still… There’s something wrong here. Seems like fans were denied a good old-fashioned baseball staple – the play at the plate.

It’s now been over seven years since that promising Opening Day in 2006, which was only day one of a season that took the Mets just a big swing away from the National League Championship trophy, and a visit to the World Series. With the exception of a few R.A. Dickey masterpieces, and a special no-hitter, there hasn’t been much cheering in Flushing since that magical run in 2006.

The Metropolitans are a team that has always been known for its pitching, with ace Cy Young winners like Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden leading the pack, career years from David Cone, and the aforementioned Dickey, are just compliments to the team’s rich pitching history. All of those Mets aces brought with them to the stadium every fifth day, great stuff, a great baseball mind, and of course big crowds.

With an ace, comes a crowd. With Matt Harvey, come the masses. He is in a word, phenomenal, and perhaps even more important to Flushing than the wins he brings, is the spirit he brings to the ballpark.

Matt began his pro career as a first round draft pick for the Mets in 2010, but hasn’t always been looked at as the ace type he has recently shown to be. Just last season before he arrived in Queens to play with the big boys, scouts as well as others around the organization, and around the league, had doubted Matt’s ability to be a front end pitcher.

Unlike his early success this season, Matt, although he performed well, did not dazzle as he has thus far in 2013. He finished the 2012 season at 3-5, with a 2.73 ERA; impressive, yet not startling.

Any bit of doubt that had yet to evaporate going into this baseball season, was gone after Harvey’s very first start of the year. If the season were to end today, the Cy Young Award would most definitely be spending a second consecutive year in the Big Apple, and it would say Harvey all over it.

The good doctor, Mr. Dwight Gooden has already given the Mets 24 year old ace his blessing. Gooden tweeted to his 35,000+ followers on twitter Saturday, that the Mets now have “The Real Deal” in town, and Gooden likes what he sees.

Citi Field has a very different aroma on “The Real Deal” days, instead of Amazin’ fans chowing down on some delectable delights during innings, Mets fans are paying close attention to each and every time Harvey serves up one of his out pitch – that devastating high fastball.

The fans rise on each two strike count, and they get behind their, so far, 4-0 ace every time he needs that extra bit of adrenaline from the Citi Field faithful. He is certainly a special player to say the least, and there is absolutely no doubt from anyone in baseball that there is much more from Matt “The Real Deal” Harvey, yet to come.

* * * * * * * *

This Fan Shot was contributed by MMO reader, Michael Feldman. Follow him on Twitter at @michael4ny. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 16,000 Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

JAYSON WERTH WHIFFS: Sit your ass down, sucker!

You know that feeling when Scott Rice walked the first two batters in the 8th inning yesterday with the Mets clinging to a 2 run lead? Kind of a helpless sense of doom and despair where you can’t bear to watch? With a little help from Jayson Werth the result didn’t turn out like so many other late-inning debacles have, but as I exhaled and wiped the sweat from my forehead it got me thinking about the psychological effects of these recurring meltdowns.

Lets consider for a moment a couple of researchers who tortured some dogs for the sake of behavioral science. Like Pavlov only more twisted … they conditioned these animals to expect an electric shock after they heard a tone. Initially the dogs would leap and jerk and look for escape in an attempt to avoid the shock, but after a while the dogs became conditioned to the stimulus and quit trying to avoid it. Once the animals were thus acclimated, the researchers observed that even when the animals were presented with a lowered wall in their boxes they made no attempt to jump over it. Even with a clear avenue of escape, they did nothing to avoid the shock. The researchers were Martin Seligman and Steven F. Maier, who went on to develop a theory they called “Learned Helplessness.”

Now lets look at an unpleasant set of random shocks that the Mets have experienced over the past six seasons:

September 27, 2007

After a 3-0 loss to the Saint Louis Cardinals the Mets are tied with the Phillies atop their division. Between the beginning of their September 14th series against the Phillies and the start of last night’s game against Saint Louis, Mets relievers have given up 30 earned runs for a 6.54 ERA. The Mets are 4 and 10 in their last 14 games.

September 21. 2008

With 7 games to go and the Mets clinging to a shot at the post season, Aaron Heilman gives up a two-run double to Martin Prado that gave the Braves a 7-4 lead rendering Carlos Delgado‘s two-run home run in the ninth inning irrelevant. It was the 16^th blown save since the All-Star break.

August 21, 2011

After another masterful performance by R.A. Dickey, Manny Acosta walks Nyjer Morgan to start the inning. With runners on first and third and two runs in, Tim Byrdak is brought in to pitch to Prince Fielder who hits a routine double play ball to second base. Justin Turner makes a wide throw on the double play attempt as the winning run crosses the plate. The Mets fall to 6 games under .500.

July 18, 2012

With the Mets only 5 games out of the wild card, Miguel Batista in relief of Chris Young comes in and gets two quick outs. He then allows two singles to Jesus Flores and Roger Bernadina before allowing a 2-run double to Steve Lombardozzi putting the Nationals ahead 4-1. Riding a 6 game losing streak the Mets bullpen ranks last in the Majors with a 5.03 ERA.

April 18, 2013

The Mets are swept in a weather-shortened three game set in Denver as Met relievers give up 18 runs to the Rockies.

April 20, 2013

After coming back from three runs down in the 4^th inning to take a 5 – 3 lead, the Mets bullpen gives up 4 runs as the Nationals win 7 – 6 on a Saturday game following an inspiring win by Matt Harvey.  The Met bullpen has given up 28 earned runs so far this season. As of this writing the Mets have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball.

No escape … Learned Helplessness.

The “D” adjectives keep coming … disheartening, demoralizing, deflating … Met fans have been stuck in a perpetual electro-shock holding pattern for the greater part of a decade owing primarily to this organization’s persistent inability to construct even a league average bullpen. We know this, we’ve been over this ad nauseam … the above list is just a sampling, there were other grueling losses, too many to list.

In May of 1978, Diener and Dweck published a fascinating analysis of Learned Helplessness in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in which they concluded that helpless children showed marked decrements in performance when put in situations where they failed, whereas children who were oriented to mastery focused more on self-monitoring and self-instruction. The study looked specifically at the attribution of failure in these learners. It was posited that for helpless children (their “helplessness” was based on how they perceived the tasks), failure was internalized and attributed to a lack of ability (even when that wasn’t necessarily the case), while mastery oriented children tended to engage in more positive behaviors following a failed attempt.

Learners who are conditioned to fail, show performance decrements with each failure. They give up, they stop trying, even when subsequently presented with tasks that are well within their ability, they stumble. Like the dogs in the electrified pens, they neglect to look for a solution, they acquiesce to their condition.

Baseball players are only human and they reflect the same patterns of response to failure that any of us might, but bullpen meltdowns are unlike other kinds of failures in some very important ways. They tend to be games that were “in the bag” at some point – which is to say many other aspects of the team’s play (namely starting pitching and offense) were successful for the greater part of the contest. The team played well, the team should have won, but the game unraveled somehow at the very end. These losses are gut punches to morale, exasperating in that they reinforce a sense of helplessness … no matter how well you play, no matter how many runs you drive in or how well your starting pitcher performs, you become conditioned to believing that the bullpen will find a way to give it up.

Players can only suffer through so many games of this sort before they stop investing their heart and soul into a game’s outcome – if only to preserve their sanity. You might call it developing a thick skin, letting failure bounce off of you, turning the page — there are lots of clichés to describe moving past failure — but, in the end, acclimating to failure increases the likelihood that it will recur. As shown in the study above, failure itself can be toxic — individuals conditioned to fail show decrements in performance relative to individuals oriented towards success even when their ability levels are commensurate.

This should not be confused with the notion that a good reliever has to have the temerity to ignore the occasional bad performance … that trait is advanced by the innate confidence that the reliever will return to his successful norm. The above has more to do with players who experience repeated failure, and thus begin to expect it.

Take two kids of equal ability who are learning to play shortstop. With player one you hit 20 hard smashes always just out of his reach. Then you bounce 20 routine grounders to player two. Follow that up by giving both players an identical set of grounders at a variety of difficulty levels and you will find that the player conditioned to failure is likely to make more errors than the player who handled the easy grounders. This is why coaches like to end sessions with a few successful reps.

Over the past few seasons the Mets have been conditioned to the late inning (and the late season) collapse. Beyond the hard work and talent unquestionably necessary to reverse this malaise of the spirit, this team needs individuals who refuse to turn the page, individuals who do not accept the loss. Sometimes all it takes is one guy. In 1967 it was Tom Seaver, perhaps Matt Harvey can act as this sort of catalyst in 2013. We need more Matt Harveys, we need players who refuse to acquiesce to failure.

But you absolutely have to have a bullpen that will hold it’s own and prevent these recurring gut-wrenching morale-killing failure-conditioning losses, because one thing is certain, you can only take so many late inning meltdowns before the dog decides to just stay in the box.

Updated by Joe D. on 4/20

What a game it was for Lucas Duda last night in the Mets 7-1 win against the Nationals. Duda had his best game ever as a Met going 2-for-3 with hit two home runs and a walk . The hulking Mets left fielder is now batting .308 for the season with five home runs and eight RBI in 14 games. Duda’s patience has paid off as Adam Rossi said it would in the post below three days ago.

Duda in now second in the Major Leagues with 12 walks, a .491 On-Base Percentage and a staggering 1.234 OPS. That’s absolutely incredible.

According to FanGraphs, Duda is swinging at only 12.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone so far this season, which again points out much of what Adam discussed in his analysis below. It’s definitely worth a second read…

Original Post April 17, 2012

Heading into the 2013, no Met has more pressure on him than Lucas Duda. For the past four years, Duda has shown flashes of power that could make him a good middle-of-the-order hitter. He has also provided a lot of head-scratching moments, somewhat unintentionally comical, both at the plate and in the field.

We know one thing is certain with Duda: he is not going to win ballgames with his defense. Nevertheless, if he can put up the power numbers that he’s been teasing everybody with this season, he should become a valuable player. All that teasing has caused Sandy Alderson and rest of this Mets front office to be very patient with Duda, and now he may finally be rewarding them for that patience because of…well…his patience.

Duda Doesn’t Chase

One could look at Lucas Duda’s stats through 13 games, see his .469 OBP, and easily realize Duda has been taking a lot of walks so far (11 walks in 49 plate appearances, to be exact). But that does not tell us much about whether or not he can sustain anything throughout the season. The following stat, however, is encouraging: 14.1% O-Swing % — in other words, Duda has only swung at 14.1% of pitches outside the strike zone. What’s even more encouraging is the fact that his O-Swing % has been steadily improving. In 2011, his O-Swing % was 29.8%, followed by 25.3% in 2012. I don’t expect his percentage to remain this low throughout the whole season, but if he can keep it under 25%, that would be significant. To understand how significant, let’s look at Joey Votto, who is arguably the most patient hitter in baseball. His career O-Swing % is 25.3%. Lucas Duda is not going to be Joey Votto, but he can at least provide part of what makes Votto such a valuable player.

With Patience Comes Power 

Obviously taking pitches helps a player with more than just his walk rate. The more pitches a batter sees, the more knowledge he gains about what the pitcher is throwing. More importantly, the more bad pitches a batter takes, the more he forces a pitcher to throw him strikes, which means the more opportunities he will get to hit a mistake and hit it hard. This has also benefited Duda early on in the season. Pitchers have thrown Duda a first pitch strike only 44.9% of the time this season, which means he has been starting off his at-bats in a 1-0 count 55% of the time. On top of that, pitchers have thrown him pitches in the strike zone 44.1% of the time, compared to 37.6% last year. What that tells me is that pitchers are starting to realize Duda won’t chase balls out of the zone, so they are being forced to throw him more strikes. As a result, Duda has improved his chances of getting a ball in the zone by 7% so far. And when you start throwing a lot of strikes to a player with Duda’s power, it’s going to result in a lot of hard hit balls.

Making Contact 

Of course, the only way Duda can make use of all the strikes he’s seeing is by making contact with the ball. This has been a problem with Duda throughout his young career, but there are once again early signs that show improvement. While he still has a pretty high strikeout rate this season (22.4%), it has been better than last year (26.1%). Also, his swing-and-miss percentage has improved by nearly 2% (7% this season, compared to 9.1% in 2012). Some of that may have to do with the fact that he isn’t swinging as much as he has in the past. Along with not swinging at pitches out of the zone, Duda also has not been swinging at as many pitches in the zone. After swinging at 64.2% of strikes in 2011 and 62.5% last year, Duda has only swung at 50% of strikes that have been thrown to him this year. That may not be a terrible thing though, since many times pitchers make good pitches that a hitter can’t do much with, even if it is a strike, and they are better off letting it go. On top of that, by not swinging as much, Duda has improved his chances of making contact when he does swing. And improving your chances can only help bring success.

It is still way too early to claim somebody a breakout player or a bust, but it is not too early to look at early season trends and try to figure out what could happen. If the Mets are going to have any success this season, there’s a good chance Lucas Duda will be a part of that. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence  then, that both he and the Mets are off to a good start.

(Note: All stats mentioned in this post are courtesy of Fangraphs)

Updated by Joe D. at 10:00 PM

Lynn Worthy just broke the news on Twitter, that Jake DeGrom will remain with the Binghamton Mets even when Cory Mazzoni comes off the disabled list next week.

Worthy adds that the B-Mets will go with a six-man rotation which is something they did last season as well.

Great news, and DeGrom is exactly where he should have been to start the season.

Good stuff…

Original Post by Satish at 9:30 PM

Wow…  Talk about an impressive splash into AA! Jacob DeGrom was recently promoted to Binghamton to replace Luis Mateo‘s spot in the rotation, and there was some talk about the fact that he got the call before Noah Syndergaard. So what did Mr. DeGrom do about it?

He went out and dominated. His first start ever in AA may have been a loss, but you have to look past that to see how impressive he really was.

DeGrom lasted eight innings and allowed an earned run off a mere three hits and one walk. His opposition, the Portland Sea Dogs, looked lost all night as he dazzled Mets minor league fans with eight strikeouts.

DeGrom was ranked at #17 during our offseason MMO Top Prospects, and here is what I had to say about him back then…

Another solid right handed pitcher in the Mets system? You are correct, sir… I believe Jake deGrom was destined for something special. DeGrom was drafted in the 9th round of the 2010 Draft and immediately had TJ surgery in the Fall of 2010. That sounds pretty bad for a young pitcher, especially when you consider that he missed the entire 2011 season because of said surgery. But like I said, deGrom just might be destined for something special, because he came back topping the radar gun at 97 MPH in 2012.

Mets Scouting Director Paul DePodesta raved about him according to Joe D.. He started 2012 in Savannah and was promoted to St.Lucie later in the year, where he actually improved on his numbers. He finished the year with a 2.43 ERA in 111.1 innings and a WHIP of .997. He struck out a solid 96 while walking only 20, and allowed only four home runs all year.

DeGrom is quite a story and very easy to root for – especially considering he is one of our own. You might be hearing his name a lot more before long and seems to be on the fast track to success.

Updated by Joe D. at 3:50 PM

It’s official. The Mets just announced that they have recalled RHP Jeurys Familia from Las Vegas (AAA) and optioned RHP Greg Burke to Las Vegas.

Hat tip to Mr. North Jersey….

Original Post 2:40 PM

The Mets’ bullpen allowed 14 hits, 10 runs, eight earned over 9.0 innings during yesterday’s doubleheader and appear to be showing some leaks. Entering the Colorado series, the bullpen had posted a 2.08 ERA in their previous six games.

Overall, the Mets relievers are 2-1 with a 4.21 ERA (20 earned runs/43.2 innings) and they rank seventh in the NL in ERA.

The backend of the Mets rotation is certainly not helping matters and only adding to their woes.

With that in mind, the Mets have opted to call-up righthanded reliever Jeurys Familia, who is on his way to Denver to join the Mets, according to Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.

This looks like a Taxi Squad move and it’s not immediately clear whether Familia would be activated upon his arrival or if he would be activated at all, writes Rubin.

Familia has allowed five hits in five innings with one save in four relief appearances with Triple-A Las Vegas and has yet to allow a run. In his last appearance, Familia pitched a hitless ninth two strikeouts.

The young fireballer ranked No. 7 in our 2013 Met Top Prospects Rankings where we wrote:

There is so much to like about Jeurys Familia. I am going to go out on a limb and say that Familia could be a successful reliever in the MLB right this second because of his electric stuff.

I saw a lot of this kid down the home stretch at Citi Field in 2012 and his fastball is everything scouts say and more. Electric and explosive.

Josh Edgin (7.50 ERA), Greg Burke (7.35 ERA) and LaTroy Hawkins (6,75 ERA ) have all struggled, and if I had to guess I’d say the 31-year old Burke will be the first to go if the team does activate Familia from the Taxi Squad..

Brandon Nimmo has gotten off to one of the hottest starts in the minor leagues this season. After another three hit performance on Tuesday, he woke up on Wednesday morning as the leading hitter in the South Atlantic league with a .447.

Nimmo has officially positioned himself to be the No. 2 prospect in the Mets organization once Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud are promoted to the big leagues. Noah Syndergaard still has the keys to the No. 1 spot on the Mets’ prospect list, but Nimmo is making a push.

Many fans thought Nimmo was a bust after 2012. They would look at his numbers and scoff at them. However, Nimmo spent 2012 adjusting to professional baseball. He grew up in Cheyenne, Wyoming, where his high school didn’t even have a baseball team. He grew up playing American Legion ball, and established himself as one of the top high school prospects in the nation moving into the 2011 draft. The thing with high school players is, they only face a good pitcher once per week…maybe. Sometimes, they find themselves playing professional baseball and have never faced a pitcher as good as they will see at that level. Now they see pitchers blowing 90+mph fastballs from the rubber every day of the week. The speed of the game changes drastically, and it takes the hitters time to adjust.

Young Brandon Nimmo has adjusted. 2012 was his adjustment year, 2013 is the result. Not only has he adjusted, he has transformed. He is now a professional hitter. He laces line drives back through the box, into center field consistently. When I look at Nimmo, I think tremendous upside. The risk of drafting this kid that never played high school baseball is starting to turn into reward for the Mets.

After the hot start this year, some are calling for a promotion. Bad move. Leave the kid where he is and let him taste success over the course of the season. Let him dominate, then skip him to Double-A in 2014. There wouldn’t be much of an adjustment skipping from Low-A to High-A ball, but why put undue pressure on a kid if the talent level isn’t much different?

There will still be doubters when it comes to Nimmo. There will still be naysayers. But Nimmo is going to keep producing — his swing and his approach to the game tells us that.

Alderson insisted that the team had to show the kind of selectivity at the plate that has been a hallmark of the general manager’s career.

As a result, the Mets are seeing 156.11 pitches per game in 2013, up from 145.82 in 2012, according to Puma.

That increase is being attributed to the team shunning the offensive philosophy that saw them struggle in the second half of last season, or so they say.

“It’s getting a good pitch to hit, and these guys are sorting through the pitches they are seeing to get something to hit,” Alderson explained to Puma.

“That approach is what really made us successful offensively in 2011 and the first half of 2012, and then we lost the approach. We couldn’t generate any offense in the second half of last year.”

The Mets have been doing surprisingly well, but is it a case of the philosophy or playing less than elite teams, or a combination of both?

Daniel Murphy, to use one example, seems to be much more aggressive at the plate than David Wright, and is enjoying a great start to his season.

I think 11 games into the season is not enough of a sample size to make any real determination, and if not for John Buck‘s tremendous exploits at the plate, things would be much different in the standings.

As I stated before the season started, the Mets had an easy schedule for most of April and so far they’ve  won series against the Padres, Marlins and Twins, while losing a series to the much more superior Phillies among those teams. That was something I hoped they would do and expected going into the season.

Lets see how they do against the Nationals, Dodgers and Phillies during the next homestand that begins on Friday. And lets see what happens when Buck comes back to earth. We’ll know a lot more about this team, the outfield, and the rotation by the early part of May.

Updated by HoJo at 10:45 PM

Pedro Feliciano tossed a scoreless seventh inning for Advanced-A St. Lucie tonight in his first game action in nearly a month and the results were encouraging.

The Mets’ southpaw allowed one hit, one walk, and had one strikeout. But his velocity was in the 84-86 mph range, according to Adam Rubin, which was up from 82-83 in spring training last month.

Original Post 7:00 PM

Other Mets News

• Tonight’s game between the Mets and Rockies has been postponed due to snow. The two teams will play a split doubleheader tomorrow, the team announced. The first game will begin at 3:10 PM, and the second game will  start around 8:40 PM. It was the Mets second straight postponement for the Mets after wintry conditions in Minneapolis on Sunday forced the game against the Twins to be called off. It was rescheduled for August 19. Weather forecasts call for additional snow on Tuesday.
• Pedro Feliciano has officially joined Class A St. Lucie, the team announced today. The lefty reliever spent the past two weeks building up shoulder strength. According to Adam Rubin, the Mets asked Feliciano to give them a month in the minors from Opening Day before leaving the organization.
• Frank Francisco is set to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday with Class A St. Lucie, a club source told ESPN New York. Francisco underwent surgery in December to remove a bone spur from his pitching elbow. He experienced inflammation upon arriving at spring training. An official rehab assignment starts a maximum 30-day clock after which the pitcher is due to be activated. The right-handed Francisco has disappointed since signing his tw year, $12 million deal before the 2012 season.  He went 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA in 48 relief appearances last season.
• Shaun Marcum will not be ready to be activated from the DL until the middle of next week at the earliest. He has been on the 15-day disabled list with biceps tendinitis, retroactive to March 22. Marcum is scheduled to throw a bullpen session Tuesday and then throw a three or four inning simulated game in Port St. Lucie on Thursday. Marcum, who signed a guaranteed $4 million dollar deal in January, has been injured with one ailment or another since he reported to spring training.
• A Monday morning fire damaged parts of the administration building at Citi Field, the club announced, though sprinkler systems contained the blaze before it was extinguished by FDNY. The cause of the fire is under investigation, according to the team, though it did not damage areas accessible to fans and nobody was injured or harmed.