1B/3B COLIN MORAN, NORTH CAROLINA 

Player Profile:

Position:  3B/1B
Height:  6-3
Weight:  215
Bats/Throws:  L-R
Birthdate:  Jan. 28, 1992
College:  North Carolina
Projected Draft Round:  1

Scouting Grades:

Hitting: Present 55 – Future 55
Power: Present 55 – Future 60
Speed: Present 40 – Future 50
Fielding: Present 50 – Future 50
Arm Strength: Present 60 – Future 60

2013 Season

Colin Moran had a collegiate slash line of .347/.439/.522 heading into the 2013 season. Through the first 51 games of this season, the left-handed slugger is batting .385/.516/.646 with nine doubles, one triple, and 13 home runs.

Colin Moran is bet to go among the top ten picks, but his bonus demands could see him drop and the Mets might get lucky at No. 11. That’s assuming they are prepared to go over slot. Moran has grown from the top freshman in the country to one of the nation’s most dangerous hitters and a top draft prospect for No. 1 North Carolina. The junior has the chance to become the fourth player in NCAA history to lead the nation in runs scored and RBIs. He entered the week first in RBIs and tied for the lead in runs scored. If he keeps it up, he could join Robin Ventura of Oklahoma State (1986), Marshall McDougall of Florida State (1999) and Jake Lowery of James Madison (2011) as the only players in NCAA history to lead the country in both categories for a season.

John Sickels Says:

Moran has a lot going for him. He is a tall, lean player similar to his former #1 overall pick uncle, B.J. Surhoff. While Moran has played quite a bit of third base at North Carolina, I think his future is likely across the diamond at first. At the plate, he is quite the talent. When he is in the lineup of any team, they are better. He has a very good approach. He has a pretty swing and has above average power potential though I wouldn’t expect it early in his career. He is the type of player I could see hitting .300 in the majors. He is one of the safer picks in the draft and I would have a hard time seeing him not reach the majors and be a useful major leaguer. While the ceiling isn’t a future star, more of a solid regular, he I expect him to go off the board early.

Keith Law Says:

Moran is the most advanced bat in the class this year, including an absurd 39 BB/8 K ratio as of April 28, but faces questions about whether he can stay at third base and how well the swing will play in pro ball. At the plate, Moran has a great eye and generates good bat speed, with solid extension through the zone for average power or a tick above. He takes a long stride forward in the box but keeps his weight back, also keeping his hands very deep, with good hip rotation as well. It’s not a pretty swing, and it’s not that consistent — his hands come set in a different spot from swing to swing, and on some swings his front side goes soft (where he rolls over his front foot). He must have extremely strong wrists as well, because he’s a little late getting the barrel of the bat into the zone but still manages to make a lot of hard contact.

At third, he has outstanding hands and an easy throwing motion, along with great arm strength, so anything he gets to at third, he handles well, getting rid of the ball quickly. He’s a fringy runner and his feet are not quick — he tends to run a little flat-footed and often has trouble getting his feet started in the field because he’s set up on his heels. However once he gets moving, he’s fine, and should end up with average range at the position, or maybe a touch below, making up for it with sure-handedness and a plus arm.

If third doesn’t work — MLB teams do seem to emphasize third base defense today more than in the past — he’d have to move to first. He’s almost certainly a top five pick, but I am just concerned enough about the unorthodox swing to rate him slightly lower than that.

Colin Moran says:

Regarding his success at the plate:

“I’ve just felt comfortable and I’ve gotten into a groove. I have to give a lot of credit to the guys around me for getting on base a lot. I like to hit with guys on base. There’s been a lot of situations where guys have to come at me with strikes because the bases are loaded and the guys ahead of me have such good on-base percentages.”

Lets Go To The Videotape

The real issue when considering competitive balance is revenue.  Some teams make a lot more of it than others by nature of their location, their fan base, and access to media outlets. I’ve always been puzzled by the notion of competitive balance at the micro-economic level. Isn’t the nature of competition such that the better organization and the better team should win? I understand that parity is good for the game, but if we really wanted it to be fair wouldn’t we have to rig a system where every team wins the World Series in a set order once every thirty years? How do measures that “level the playing field” not detract from inherent competitive advantages that are earned and deserved? Isn’t survival of the fittest a free market principle? Big markets should have an advantage, they have more people in them, and they pay higher prices.

If on the other hand you look at Baseball on the macro-economic level, as a single sprawling coast to coast business, then things begin to look a little different. You could argue that the scarcity of a brand in multiple smaller markets offers room for growth that makes up for whatever an already profit maximized big market may bring to the table. Competitive balance also makes for more interesting games which makes it essentially a quality control measure. No one enjoys watching the Yankees perennially steamroll the rest of the league (except Yankee fans of course).

Revenue sharing was first instituted in 1996 to help combat growing revenue disparities among MLB franchises. Based on 2012 revenues, $400 million will change hands from the big MLB markets to the small in order to level the playing field. The money is distributed on a sliding scale, which means that teams near the bottom of revenue generated, will receive significantly more than the $27 million average that would be distributed if that money were spread evenly across the bottom 15 teams. Ideally revenue sharing allows small market teams more flexibility in retaining home grown stars that they’ve poured development dollars into.

But revenue sharing hasn’t always worked the way it was intended to. Back in 2009 Maury Brown published an eye opening look at just how much money revenue sharing brought to small markets. He showed, for instance, that the Marlins received $20,946,573 and $21,030,000 in 2002 and 2003, while the Mets paid out -17,366,067 and -21,473,000 on those same years respectively. In 2008 and 2009 the Marlins received $47,982,000 and $43,973,000 respectively. Now consider this for a moment, the Marlins in 2008 had a team payroll of $27,003,450.00 which means the Marlins in 2008 pocketed over 20 million in revenue sharing dollars after payroll expenses. Doesn’t seem fair does it?

The new CBA will change revenue sharing in the coming years to address this very issue. The union requested a new rule that connects revenue-sharing money to big league payroll. In a report by Jason Stark of ESPN in November of 2011, he explained that teams receiving revenue-sharing money are now required to reflect a 40-man roster payroll 25 percent larger than the amount they’re receiving. So, if a team’s revenue-sharing check is for $40 million, their big league payroll needs to be at least $50 million. Also, by the end of this labor deal (2016), teams in the 15 largest markets will no longer receive revenue-sharing money, no matter how low their revenue may be. The 15 teams that will be ineligible for revenue sharing by 2016 are the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Blue Jays, Astros, Giants and A’s.

The problem for many, particularly those on the Player’s Association end, is that MLB continues to register record profits while payrolls have failed to keep pace. Between local network outlets and national media contracts (a deal with Fox was recently valued at $12.4 billion over eight years to be divided across all 30 MLB teams) the sport is seeing unprecedented growth. Maury Brown reported in April of 2011 that gross MLB revenues have jumped from $1.4 billion in 1995 to $7 billion in 2010, a 400% increase. When accounting for inflation, the league still sees a phenomenal 254% increase, and yet many teams have failed to invest these profits proportionately into added payroll. Revenue sharing was supposed to address that problem but it clearly has not.

Scott Boras isn’t happy about it. According to Boras, most teams have lower payrolls heading into the 2013 season than the highest payroll those teams had from 2000-2012. “Only five teams have higher payrolls,” Boras told Murray Chass in a Jan 2013 article. “Everybody else is below even though revenue is up 200 percent and franchise values are up 300, 400 percent. What we’re seeing is not many teams are spending on payrolls despite the fact that their profits are extraordinary. You’d expect teams to have their highest payrolls, but they don’t.” Boras offered these examples:

In spite of revenue sharing, record profits, and media deals sprouting up left and right, Major League teams have failed to invest in players, according to Scott Boras. Is this in fact the case?

Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs recently did a nice analysis of payroll fluctuations. Below are two graphics that she employed.

In the first graph you can see that revenue has indeed outpaced payroll, however, the second graphic is interesting because the year to year percentage changes in both MLB revenue and payrolls do not always reflect a similar trajectory. From 2003 to 2005 revenue rose steadily then remained relatively high while payroll dropped precipitously. Then from 2005 to 2006 payroll showed a 20% spike. From 2007 to 2008 payroll and revenue were both declining on a parallel course reflecting the economic downturn, but from about 2009 on, payroll and revenue deviate, crisscross, then begin to slowly rise in unison from about 2011 to the present. In her well articulated piece, Thurm makes the argument that while many teams have cut back (even in the wake of record profits), others have used this money to dramatically increase their payrolls. She cites teams like the Nationals and Detroit as examples. Personally I don’t see it so much. While I can see the argument derived from the second graph where payroll and revenue seem to follow parallel trajectories, there are two major deviations on that graph where payroll was far below revenue, and there are also teams like the Marlins that continually appear to invest a far smaller percentage relative to revenue growth.

Teams like the Mets on the other hand, which were one of Boras’ culprits, have cut back repeatedly over the past 4 years while media proceeds have risen. The Mets received an estimated 60 million last year for their share of MLB’s national media dollars, their SNY network continues to appreciate and continues to generate revenue, they play in NY, and yet the team’s payroll ranked 19th out of 30 teams.

The odd conclusion here is that for some teams, the market dynamic isn’t responding the way it’s supposed to. Many small market teams are making out like bandits while teams like the Mets aren’t faring well at all. The Mets should not be losing money, they should not have had trouble managing their debt and they should be awash in cash as they reside in the biggest baseball market in the world, but the Wilpons were so damaged by losses through their association with Madoff and the depreciation of their real estate holdings, and they accumulated such a massive debt load from their new stadium, they reached a point where they were unable to invest in payroll on a level commensurate with the rest of Major League baseball. In retrospect, the lack of any semblance of prudent economic foresight demonstrated by Met ownership is truly astonishing. To add to their problems the Mets’ massive market wasn’t (still isn’t) helping them at the gate, as fans simply stopped showing up. Revenue continued to spiral down and here we are looking at a crappy on-field product, empty stands and a seemingly perpetual limited budget.

Eventually the Wilpons may be pressed into boosting payroll if they are to get themselves off of Boras’ list. No matter how much media money they manage to procur, if they keep losing money at the gate my guess is they’ll eventually have to sell the team. Sure, maybe the small marketers will herald a Met turnaround generated via their resurgent farm system, but barring that, the Wilpons are going to have to splurge. The striking thing about Boras’ list is that with the exception of the Rays and the Braves, every team on it has had a losing record over the period of time referenced on the chart. Clearly, teams that cut salary don’t fare well. The Mets simply can not keep pace with the rest of the league if during a time of plenty they continue to impose restrictions. At some point they’re going to have to invest if they’re to bring the fans back, even if it means betting the house.

And with the No. 11 Pick of the 2013 First Year Player Draft…

The New York Mets select:

OF HUNTER RENFROE, MISSISSIPPI STATE

Player Profile:

Position:  OF/C
Height:  6-1
Weight:  216
Bats/Throws:  R-R
Birthdate:  Jan. 28, 1992
College:  Mississippi State
Projected Draft Round:  1

Scouting Grades:

Hitting: Present 35 – Future 55
Power: Present 70 – Future 70
Speed: Present 60 – Future 60
Fielding: Present 55 – Future 60
Arm Strength: Present 60 – Future 60

John Sickels Says:

Renfroe packs a big punch at the dish. He has massive power. He has quick wrists and a short powerful swing. He sells out for power most of the time but in his summer league runs, it has paid off. He was named Cal Ripken League MVP in both 2011 and 2012. He hit ..395 with a .581 SLG in 2011, followed by a .366 mark with an .866 SLG in 2012. Renfroe is a good athlete with above-average running speed. He also has a quality throwing arm.

Player Summary

Renfroe is a high-impact college bat in a draft that has few of them, with a big, athletic build and the potential for three or more plus tools, but despite the strong junior year still has a ways to go with the bat.

He can show you three plus tools on the field — power, running speed, and throwing arm — with the power more like a 70 (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and the others grading out at 60.

At 6-foot-1, 216 pounds, he already looks physically developed enough to play in the upper levels of the minors. His swing is very rotational, with a good stride into the ball and excellent follow-through to generate all of that power. He lifts his back foot off the ground at contact, which isn’t ideal since it means he’s hitting entirely off his front foot, something a few good big league hitters have done, but that most don’t.

His pitch recognition right now is a weakness, and pitchers can get him out just by changing speeds effectively. Renfroe hit just .252/.328/.374 last year with 51 strikeouts in 230 at bats after going 4-for-26 his freshman year, so while he was a known entity coming into college — Boston took him in the 31st round in 2010 — he came into this year without any strong history of performance, appearing in a second-tier summer league last year rather than on Cape Cod or in the Northwoods League.

In a deeper draft, he’d be a sandwich-round guy because of that history, as scouts and execs asked why he didn’t hit in his previous two years in the SEC, and why he didn’t play in a tougher summer league. In this year’s draft, however, he’s clearly one of the top five college bats, and offers more raw power potential than anyone other than Kris Bryant.

2013 Stats and Accolades

On May 3rd, Mississippi State’s Hunter Renfroe was named to the Golden Spikes Award midseason watch list. The award is given to the top amateur baseball player in the nation.

Renfroe leads the Bulldogs in batting average (.403), home runs (14), RBI (48), total bases (119), on-base percentage (.489) and slugging (.799). He is also tied for the team lead in doubles with 13.

What He Said

After hitting a walk-off homerun: 

“It’s pure elation. It’s total joy,” he said. “You know you’re helping your team get that much closer to winning the game or won the game. It’s awesome. It’s an awesome feeling. You get chill bumps every time you talk about it or when you do it. When you run around first base, second base, it’s pretty special. I love just playing the game.”

The Grand Slam

Gotta love that Griffey-esque flair on his follow-through, bat release, the pause, and his walk to full-on homerun trot.

JAYSON WERTH WHIFFS: Sit your ass down, sucker!

You know that feeling when Scott Rice walked the first two batters in the 8th inning yesterday with the Mets clinging to a 2 run lead? Kind of a helpless sense of doom and despair where you can’t bear to watch? With a little help from Jayson Werth the result didn’t turn out like so many other late-inning debacles have, but as I exhaled and wiped the sweat from my forehead it got me thinking about the psychological effects of these recurring meltdowns.

Lets consider for a moment a couple of researchers who tortured some dogs for the sake of behavioral science. Like Pavlov only more twisted … they conditioned these animals to expect an electric shock after they heard a tone. Initially the dogs would leap and jerk and look for escape in an attempt to avoid the shock, but after a while the dogs became conditioned to the stimulus and quit trying to avoid it. Once the animals were thus acclimated, the researchers observed that even when the animals were presented with a lowered wall in their boxes they made no attempt to jump over it. Even with a clear avenue of escape, they did nothing to avoid the shock. The researchers were Martin Seligman and Steven F. Maier, who went on to develop a theory they called “Learned Helplessness.”

Now lets look at an unpleasant set of random shocks that the Mets have experienced over the past six seasons:

September 27, 2007

After a 3-0 loss to the Saint Louis Cardinals the Mets are tied with the Phillies atop their division. Between the beginning of their September 14th series against the Phillies and the start of last night’s game against Saint Louis, Mets relievers have given up 30 earned runs for a 6.54 ERA. The Mets are 4 and 10 in their last 14 games.

September 21. 2008

With 7 games to go and the Mets clinging to a shot at the post season, Aaron Heilman gives up a two-run double to Martin Prado that gave the Braves a 7-4 lead rendering Carlos Delgado‘s two-run home run in the ninth inning irrelevant. It was the 16^th blown save since the All-Star break.

August 21, 2011

After another masterful performance by R.A. Dickey, Manny Acosta walks Nyjer Morgan to start the inning. With runners on first and third and two runs in, Tim Byrdak is brought in to pitch to Prince Fielder who hits a routine double play ball to second base. Justin Turner makes a wide throw on the double play attempt as the winning run crosses the plate. The Mets fall to 6 games under .500.

July 18, 2012

With the Mets only 5 games out of the wild card, Miguel Batista in relief of Chris Young comes in and gets two quick outs. He then allows two singles to Jesus Flores and Roger Bernadina before allowing a 2-run double to Steve Lombardozzi putting the Nationals ahead 4-1. Riding a 6 game losing streak the Mets bullpen ranks last in the Majors with a 5.03 ERA.

April 18, 2013

The Mets are swept in a weather-shortened three game set in Denver as Met relievers give up 18 runs to the Rockies.

April 20, 2013

After coming back from three runs down in the 4^th inning to take a 5 – 3 lead, the Mets bullpen gives up 4 runs as the Nationals win 7 – 6 on a Saturday game following an inspiring win by Matt Harvey.  The Met bullpen has given up 28 earned runs so far this season. As of this writing the Mets have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball.

No escape … Learned Helplessness.

The “D” adjectives keep coming … disheartening, demoralizing, deflating … Met fans have been stuck in a perpetual electro-shock holding pattern for the greater part of a decade owing primarily to this organization’s persistent inability to construct even a league average bullpen. We know this, we’ve been over this ad nauseam … the above list is just a sampling, there were other grueling losses, too many to list.

In May of 1978, Diener and Dweck published a fascinating analysis of Learned Helplessness in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in which they concluded that helpless children showed marked decrements in performance when put in situations where they failed, whereas children who were oriented to mastery focused more on self-monitoring and self-instruction. The study looked specifically at the attribution of failure in these learners. It was posited that for helpless children (their “helplessness” was based on how they perceived the tasks), failure was internalized and attributed to a lack of ability (even when that wasn’t necessarily the case), while mastery oriented children tended to engage in more positive behaviors following a failed attempt.

Learners who are conditioned to fail, show performance decrements with each failure. They give up, they stop trying, even when subsequently presented with tasks that are well within their ability, they stumble. Like the dogs in the electrified pens, they neglect to look for a solution, they acquiesce to their condition.

Baseball players are only human and they reflect the same patterns of response to failure that any of us might, but bullpen meltdowns are unlike other kinds of failures in some very important ways. They tend to be games that were “in the bag” at some point – which is to say many other aspects of the team’s play (namely starting pitching and offense) were successful for the greater part of the contest. The team played well, the team should have won, but the game unraveled somehow at the very end. These losses are gut punches to morale, exasperating in that they reinforce a sense of helplessness … no matter how well you play, no matter how many runs you drive in or how well your starting pitcher performs, you become conditioned to believing that the bullpen will find a way to give it up.

Players can only suffer through so many games of this sort before they stop investing their heart and soul into a game’s outcome – if only to preserve their sanity. You might call it developing a thick skin, letting failure bounce off of you, turning the page — there are lots of clichés to describe moving past failure — but, in the end, acclimating to failure increases the likelihood that it will recur. As shown in the study above, failure itself can be toxic — individuals conditioned to fail show decrements in performance relative to individuals oriented towards success even when their ability levels are commensurate.

This should not be confused with the notion that a good reliever has to have the temerity to ignore the occasional bad performance … that trait is advanced by the innate confidence that the reliever will return to his successful norm. The above has more to do with players who experience repeated failure, and thus begin to expect it.

Take two kids of equal ability who are learning to play shortstop. With player one you hit 20 hard smashes always just out of his reach. Then you bounce 20 routine grounders to player two. Follow that up by giving both players an identical set of grounders at a variety of difficulty levels and you will find that the player conditioned to failure is likely to make more errors than the player who handled the easy grounders. This is why coaches like to end sessions with a few successful reps.

Over the past few seasons the Mets have been conditioned to the late inning (and the late season) collapse. Beyond the hard work and talent unquestionably necessary to reverse this malaise of the spirit, this team needs individuals who refuse to turn the page, individuals who do not accept the loss. Sometimes all it takes is one guy. In 1967 it was Tom Seaver, perhaps Matt Harvey can act as this sort of catalyst in 2013. We need more Matt Harveys, we need players who refuse to acquiesce to failure.

But you absolutely have to have a bullpen that will hold it’s own and prevent these recurring gut-wrenching morale-killing failure-conditioning losses, because one thing is certain, you can only take so many late inning meltdowns before the dog decides to just stay in the box.

If you’re the kind of baseball fan that still loves a good old-fashioned pitching duel like thrill of a Tom Seaver vs. Steve Carlton matchup, then tonight’s contest between the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets will be right up your alley.

As I said last week, every time Matt Harvey steps onto a mound it is must-see TV, but tonight’s contest comes with the added thrill of a marquee matchup as Stephen Strasburg squares off against Matt Harvey in what promises to be a pitchers duel like no other at Citi Field.

Strasburg, who is 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA and 15 strikeouts this season over 18.1 innings of work, may very well be the underdog in this contest – and no, that’s not the Met fan in me saying that.

His mound opponent, Mets phenom Matt Harvey, takes the hill with a 3-0 record and a 0.82 ERA while striking out 25 over 22.0 innings pitched this season. He is the clear favorite.

Both starters are former first-round picks. The Nationals selected Strasburg with their first overall pick in the 2009 Draft, while the Mets selected Harvey a year later with the seventh overall pick in the 2010 Draft.

Harvey, fresh off of being named the NL Player of the Week, has been nothing short of phenomenal this season so far this season. One of the most mind boggling statistics that pops out at you is that he’s allowed just six hits in his 22 innings of work. Let the enormity of that sink in.

In his last start against the Minnesota Twins, Harvey took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and got the first two outs before being tagged by a Justin Morneau home run. Whenever he takes the hill something special happens and on that night in particular, Harvey was electric.

Mets manager Terry Collins says Harvey will be armed and dangerous for tonight’s contest and gets amped up for moments like these.

“What we saw on the mound, his demeanor and everything else has changed. I know he’ll be ready, because he’s facing one of the best teams in the game.’’

“He loves the big stage, and that’s what he’s on,’’ Collins said yesterday. “He’s got a big challenge and if you look at some of the games he’s had to pitch, they have been against some pretty impressive guys, and he’s getting another one.’’

I’ve been waiting all week for tonight’s game.

I’ve had no problem calling Matt Harvey the best player to come out of the Mets draft since Dwight Gooden. Barring injuries, by the time his stellar career is over, Harvey may end up being the best Mets draft selection ever.

The Mets right-hander in no longer just a Mets sensation, he is now a baseball sensation and a national treasure.

All eyes will be watching baseball’s signature event tonight. Matt Harvey is now Prime Time  He really is The Real Deal.

Mets Starting Lineup

1. Jordany Valdespin – LF
2. Daniel Murphy – 2B
3. David Wright – 3B
4. Ike Davis – 1B
5. John Buck – C
6. Marlon Byrd – CF
7. Mike Baxter – RF
8. Ruben Tejada – SS
9. Jonathon Niese – LHP

Game Notes

• The team called up right-hander Jeurys Familia from Triple-A Las Vegas on Wednesday, optioning submariner Greg Burke to the Minors. Familia, who broke camp with the Mets in an eight-man Opening Day bullpen, has not allowed a run in five innings since his early-April demotion to Vegas.
• With an MLB-worst six errors in 13 games at shortstop, Tejada entered Wednesday’s play with more miscues than eight Major League teams.They’ve been mostly throwing errors. Terry Collins insists that Tejada is doing nothing technically wrong and will stick by him. Good call.
• Lucas Duda is second in the National League with 11 walks and also ranks third in the NL with a .469 on-base percentage. The Mets’ left fielder is hitting .368 (7-19) with two home runs and three RBI on this current road trip.
• Meanwhile, Daniel Murphy continues to rake and is hitting .393 (11-28) with eight runs scored, six doubles and five RBI on this road trip…Overall, Murphy is hitting .340 and is tied for 11th in the National League with 11 RBI, is tied for third in the NL with six doubles and is tied for third with nine extra-base hits. Nice!
• The Mets will not need the fifth starter’s spot again until a week from Saturday according to Adam Rubin’s calculations. That means Shaun Marcum, who is supposed to pitch in Port St. Lucie today, could be ready to return and make his Mets debut. We hope he’s armed and ready!

Game Preview

The Mets will try to salvage a game of this series today this afternoon in Denver. After dropping both games of the doubleheader, the Mets were postponed due to snow yesterday. The Mets are playing their regularly scheduled game today and there is no word yet on when a make-up game will be played. Jon Niese will get his normal start today, yesterday’s starter, Hefner, will get pushed to Saturday which will push Laffey out of the rotation this time around.

Jon Niese is 2-0 over 3 starts with a 3.57 ERA over 17.2 innings and 9 runs, 7 earned. Niese’s numbers were fantastic before the Minnesota game on Friday night however Niese had problems throwing/gripping the ball in the cold and snow, thus laboring through innings. It also didn’t help that the Mets bats stayed out forever in the first and second inning. Anyway, Niese looks for some normalcy today. Niese hasn’t faced the Rockies since 2011 where he allowed 10 ER over 12.1 innings. The Rockies have the following numbers against Jon:

Helton 7-16, 3 2B, HR
Tulo 5-13, 2B, HR
Gonzalez 0-7
Fowler 1-6
Herrera 3-6, HR
Garland 0-2

Garland is 1-0 this season over two starts and 12 innings of work allowing 5 ER and 10 hits in that stretch. He missed the 2012 season in its entirety and in 2011 he had a 4.33 ERA with a 1-5 record over 9 starts and 54 innings of work. In 2011 he had one start against the Mets where he allowed 3 ER over 6 innings and 7 hits. The Mets have the following numbers against Jon:

Buck 10-42, 4 2B, HR
Byrd 5-18
Wright 2-15, 2B
Murphy 2-7, 2B
Davis 2-5
Tejada 0-3

Let’s Go Mets!

Alderson insisted that the team had to show the kind of selectivity at the plate that has been a hallmark of the general manager’s career.

As a result, the Mets are seeing 156.11 pitches per game in 2013, up from 145.82 in 2012, according to Puma.

That increase is being attributed to the team shunning the offensive philosophy that saw them struggle in the second half of last season, or so they say.

“It’s getting a good pitch to hit, and these guys are sorting through the pitches they are seeing to get something to hit,” Alderson explained to Puma.

“That approach is what really made us successful offensively in 2011 and the first half of 2012, and then we lost the approach. We couldn’t generate any offense in the second half of last year.”

The Mets have been doing surprisingly well, but is it a case of the philosophy or playing less than elite teams, or a combination of both?

Daniel Murphy, to use one example, seems to be much more aggressive at the plate than David Wright, and is enjoying a great start to his season.

I think 11 games into the season is not enough of a sample size to make any real determination, and if not for John Buck‘s tremendous exploits at the plate, things would be much different in the standings.

As I stated before the season started, the Mets had an easy schedule for most of April and so far they’ve  won series against the Padres, Marlins and Twins, while losing a series to the much more superior Phillies among those teams. That was something I hoped they would do and expected going into the season.

Lets see how they do against the Nationals, Dodgers and Phillies during the next homestand that begins on Friday. And lets see what happens when Buck comes back to earth. We’ll know a lot more about this team, the outfield, and the rotation by the early part of May.

Of all the players I ran into over the weekend Niese somehow stood out. He carries himself well, he’s bigger than I thought (actually they’re all bigger than you think – they’re like on a different scale), he’s soft spoken and unassuming and just seems like a really nice guy.

Jonathon Niese was born on October 27th 1986, the day the Mets won their last World Series. Talk about cosmic coincidences. He was picked 209th overall in the 2005 draft, and he spent time at all three levels of the Mets minor league system where his numbers were good but not great. His best year was probably his 2008 season in Binghampton when in 22 games he had a 3.04 ERA. The season before in St. Lucie he’d gone 11-7 with a 4.19 ERA. At the age of 22 while at AAA Buffalo in the midst of a stretch where he’d pitched to a 3.82 ERA over 16 games he got the call.

My first impression of him was that he was ok, nothing special. He gave up a homerun to his first batter, Rickie Weeks, and ended up surrendering three runs in three innings. Not so good, I thought. Maybe a back end number 4 type guy at best. Then in his next start Jonathan Seagu … er, Niese, surprised me, pitching 8 shutout innings to beat the Braves 5-0. What I noticed was the sweet arcing trajectory of his beautiful southpaw curveball. A true hammer. Jonathon had defied my initial impression with that performance.

Niese got called up again in 2009 after Oliver Perez got hurt. He pitched to a 4.21 ERA that year making only 5 starts before he suffered a complete tear of his hamstring and had to miss the rest of the season. Niese went 10-9 in 2010 with a 4.20 ERA and 11–11 in 2011 with a 4.40 ERA and it was looking like my initial assessment was maybe not so far from the truth, middle to back end of the rotation kind of guy.  But like Jonathan Seagull’s doubters (a seagull cannot fly like a hawk!)  I was focusing too much on his limitations …

Niese had rhinoplasty after the 2011 season at the urging of ex-teammate Carlos Beltran. I knew what this was. Nasal deformity can result from skeletal hypoplasia or skeletal asymmetry and can cause an assortment of breathing problems up to and including sleep apnea. The problem can also affect nasal resonance (hyponasality), which can distort speech. I found it a little odd that a number of early stories found humor in Niese’s “nose job.” When you look at some older pictures of Niese, his nose deviated severely to his right. Functional rhinoplasty is actually a vital procedure for those who suffer from obstructed and malaligned nasal passages.

The surgery likely addressed some lingering asymmetry that was obstructing his airway. I’d learned about this stuff during a graduate practicum at the University of Minnesota’s Craniofacial Clinic (one of the top institutions of it’s kind in the nation). I knew that if the breathing was repaired it could potentially make a big difference in his O2 intake as an athlete, not to mention the far more significant effects of improved sleep (if apnea was an issue). Sure enough he had the best season of his career, going 13-9 with a 3.40 ERA. Jonathon was on the move again, defying expectations, ascending.

Jonathon pitched a hell of a gutsy game the other night. With brutal near blizzard conditions at game time the Mets came out and pounded Vance Worley with 5 quick runs in the first. Worley’s command was off, his pitches all appeared to be some version of a straight fastball, he had nothing. The Minnesota weather was brutal, I couldn’t imagine trying to grip a baseball in this stuff when you could barely feel your hands.

I had my fingers crossed when Niese came out and sure enough he ran into some trouble with a walk and a hit. Niese appeared to be having trouble locating his signature cutter. Buck went out and chatted with him and Niese seemed to settle down after that, sans the cutter. He relied mostly on his fastball and change with a few breaking balls thrown in for good measure. In the end, Niese gutted out 5 innings for the win with 4 earned runs, 4 walks and a strikeout, which, under the circumstances was nothing short of amazing. This quiet kid from Lima, Ohio is something else I thought. Pitching like a true ace, Jon Niese has become resilient, able to do what he has to to win even when his stuff isn’t there and the conditions are stacked against him.

On Saturday, the morning after Niese’s start, as the groundskeepers were doing their thing and hosing down the infield, Niese was the first guy out of the Met clubhouse doing laps. He was working on that conditioning that had made all the difference for him in 2012.

This kid has gone from the ninth pick of the 7th round of the draft, from his average days in the minors, from an uninspiring start to his major league career, to what he is now, which is one of the best starters in the league with a true knee-buckling curveball that has to be one of the toughest breaking pitches in the game.

I wouldn’t put anything past this guy. Like Jonathan Seagull, he is on a stratospheric trajectory. There’s no ceiling in sight for Mr. Niese, and I don’t think he’s set any limitations on where he may end up, so I certainly won’t.

There was lots of good will to go around Citi Field on Opening Day. And with good reason, as the Mets opened their season superbly. Just about everyone that saw the field contributed.

However, there were two large figures that were mostly missing – Ike Davis, and to a lesser extent, Lucas Duda. Davis went 0-for-5 with four strikeouts, while Duda was 0-for-2 with two walks and a strikeout. Both were the only two starters to go hitless, and although just one game, Davis’ four strikeouts were all too reminiscent of his start to the 2012 season.

But this isn’t in any way to pick on Davis and Duda. This was just one game, and is in no way indicative of how their 2013 numbers will look at season’s end. Instead, this is about how important they are going to be to this team, and how their success will go a long way toward determining the Mets success this year.

The Mets certainly do not look like an offensive powerhouse on paper. After David Wright, Daniel Murphy and hopefully Davis, there aren’t a whole lot of established offensive numbers. And the pitching staff is extraordinarily young. Extraordinarily exciting, yes, but also young.

The Mets are going to need the likes of Jon Niese, Matt Harvey and Dillon Gee to take the next step. And how’s this for unnecessary pressure. I think most Mets’ fans are already talking like Zach Wheeler is an established, successful part of the rotation when in fact he isn’t even on the team yet.

In other words, the Mets aren’t going to win a lot of 1-0 and 2-1 games. This pitching staff and bullpen are going to need offense.

That’s where Davis and Duda come in. Much of the Mets’ lineup is also unestablished   You don’t know what you are going to get out of the likes of Colin Cowgill and John Buck. Really, David Wright is the only Met with established credentials.  No one knows if Murphy will be able to stay healthy  the team is riding a hot bat in Marlon Byrd, and Ruben Tejada is coming off an awful spring.

I like Murphy and Tejada, and I also think Byrd was a great addition, you just can’t expect them to carry the team. It’s asking too much. Which is why Davis and Duda need to take the next step. A big season out of both would do so much toward solidifying the middle of the order. In addition, it would take the pressure off a young rotation and not force this team to ask the likes of Colin Cowgill to do too much.

Cowgill is a great find and has potential. But the Mets can’t expect four RBIs out of him nightly. This team isn’t good enough to have any gaping holes in its lineup.

Davis showed great promise in 2010, battled an injury-riddled 2011, and then started absurdly slowly in 2012 before finishing at .227-32-90. Ike needs to put together a complete season, batting average and all.

It was in 2011 that Duda showed great promise (.301-10-50) in only 100 games before falling off to .239-15-57 in 121 games last year.

This year needs to be their year. It’s time.

I decided to shoot down to Port St. Lucie for a few days and take in a few minor league games and intra-squads. I wanted to catch some the new players I haven’t had a chance to see yet and also check out how some of our top prospects were progressing.

Joe asked me to share some of my notes, quotes and observations because he wanted to give the readers here a glimpse of what’s to come and give you a feel for what I look for when I’m observing the players or just talking to the coaches or any front office personnel that may also be there – casually observing and making mental notes like myself.

So, I just came back from Florida, and boy, this will not likely be the first or last time I’ll ever say it, but a sunburn has never been more welcome.

Friday

Anyway, on to some baseball. I spent most of my time on the backfields, just watching the players, and I was excited for the pre-game drills to end and for the games to start. I spent a lot of my time talking to Benny Distefano, the St. Lucie hitting coach about our times in Brooklyn. He is an amazing guy and always keeps everything so fresh and fun. You can really see from his coaching how he’s excelled. He introduced me to Ryan Ellis, the St. Lucie manager, who is also pretty cool. Best of wishes to both of them at St. Lucie this season.

My first report came on Friday about Michael Fulmer, who I was glad to see up and about and walking around so soon after surgery to repair the meniscus in his right knee. He’s going to be fine and is on a timetable to return in about a month and a half.

I also spent a lot of time watching the kids on the field for Groups 3 and 4 (St Lucie and Savannah coaching staffs). I asked one coach (who wasn’t Benny or Ellis) about his players on the Savannah side. He told me that these players won’t be playing for Savannah, which means Group 3 is more likely Savannah, and Group 4 are all extended spring training guys. This coach also gave me a little information on German Ahmed Rosario, our top international signee last year. More to follow about this exciting prospect in a full length feature later this week.

I also talked to a front office official, who gave me information on some of the players, organizational philosophy and overall operations.

I watched Brandon Nimmo hit batting practice Sunday morning, where he was lacing many hits the other way. It was so free and easy. During my conversation with the official I said how I thought he did greatly in Brooklyn, to which he agreed.

“He’s a great player, had a good year, considering the circumstances of playing absolutely beyond his age. A lot of people really give Nimmo bad connotations because he’s raw. A writer told me the other day that he might have to move to a corner outfield spot, but he also told me his ceiling could be a .280 – 290 hitter, with 20-25 home runs. I said, hey, I’ll sign up for that any day”

I asked him about Cecchini next, and what they thought of him after drafting him.

“He’s a really good guy, so much makeup, a great player. His floor is definitely utility infielder, but we think he’ll make it as a big league shortstop, and a great one too. We drafted him so highly because he’s very advanced, and a good leader. For his potential, it’s way too early to tell.”

As he said that, a run was coming in on the home side, and Cecchini stepped at home signaling to the guy at third to come racing in. I asked him about his assignment,

“We aren’t sure yet, he [Cecchini] may start in extended, or we might have him in Savannah to start out and push him down to extended. It’s a possibility to start getting him some at-bats early.”

He brought up Vicente Lupo

“He’s a great kid, great story, didn’t do too well the year before last (2011) but bounced back to have the highest OPS ever in the Dominican Summer League. He’s someone to look out for.”

With minor league assignments, I asked him about whether or not they take spring training into consideration.

“Most of the time our minds are already made up: 95% of our assignments are made even before spring training begins. If someone really surprises us? Yeah, we might pencil them in, but usually our minds are already made up.”

He brought up development, with the Gulf Coast League team that was gone briefly.

“It was pretty difficult for us. We had so many players in camp, and not enough assignments for all of them. Not enough players got into games, and at-bats. We’re glad it’s back for us, especially with our players, and the draft coming in.”

Big thanks to the official for this information.

Saturday

I made some notes during one game I watched. It was Group 1 vs. Group 2 in intrasquad games. Group 1 is mainly Buffalo and Binghamton combined, and Group 2 seems to be only St Lucie.

Lineups (essentially) were:

Group 2 (Visiting)

CF Alonzo Harris

SS Daniel Muno

C Camden Maron

DH Richard Lucas

3B Aderlin Rodriguez

2B Matt Reynolds

RF Joe Bonfe

LF Dustin Lawley

P Erik Goeddel

Vs.

Group 1

CF Darrell Ceciliani

SS Wilfredo Tovar

3B Josh Satin

2B Wilmer Flores

RF Cory Vaughn

P Zack Wheeler

LF Cesar Puello

1B Allan Dykstra

C Francisco Pena

DH Reese Havens

Things to note:

None of these players batted in any particular order.

Havens smoked a double the other way.

Alonzo Harris singled in the first against Wheeler and stole a base.

Wheeler had trouble bunting in his first at-bat, and pretty much gave away the out. But in his second at-bat he laid down a successful bunt. The Mets put a heavy focus on their pitchers at the plate.

Cory Vaughn has some mean power, hitting a pitch down the right field line foul, that would have been a no-doubter had it stayed fair.

Wheeler made Aderlin Rodriguez look silly on a slider in the first, and then hit him in the 4th on a 95 MPH fastball.

EVERYONE behind the plate was saying “Wow” over and over again, and reiterating his incredible velocity.

Many other pitchers were watching.

His velocity from word of mouth and behind the gun was 94-98.

One official also said to me, “We’ve seen him touch 99 and 100 as well.”

He was popping the glove in warm-ups.

Goeddel was 89-94

I left after Wheeler was done pitching after the fourth inning.

Final Line 4 IP, 2 Hits, 3 K’s 1 HBP

I told him the next day that he was great, and that I was such a fan.

Sunday

I watched a bit of the Group 4 game against the Cardinals, essentially opting out of watching Daniel Murphy play in Group 3’s game. These are all players that are headed to Extended Spring Training. I wasn’t really there to keep score, and wanted to catch a glimpse of all the new kids in town. Some of whom will be included on a follow-up piece on German Ahmed Rosario.

I can describe Branden Kaupe as a stocky guy, small, but big muscles.

I watched Juan Urbina, who struggled. I took a look at the gun to see how hard he was throwing, which was ranging from 86-90, sitting around 88. Someone close by said “He’s a little frustrating, he ranges from 82-94”. He also threw a curve in around 73-76 miles per hour.

I saw pone particular pitcher and wondered to myself who it could be. It was Christian Montgomery, a High School pick from the 2011 draft. He looked as though he had a very heavy fastball, and really strong frame. I didn’t grab any gun readings, but he’s a player to look out for this year in short season ball.

I saw Gavin Cecchini hit a ball to the track in right center, which was caught. Seems as though there is more in-game power than what is expected.

I’ll have some more for you later as gather my thoughts and compose some more detail and analysis for you. Thank you for reading.

Every team has them, one or two players who’ve had flashes of brilliance here and there but have never quite put it together. Those of us who’ve partaken in the Fantasy Baseball arts can tell you there’s nothing like taking a flier on a high upside kid who makes a splash in the big pool, with the big fish, and doesn’t get eaten. Of course you don’t always get Trout, sometimes you end up with Carp.  Carp isn’t very good no matter how you cook it. So it’s important to pick your rat poison carefully in the late rounds of your fantasy draft. You want to go for upside but you often need versatility as well. Last year for instance if you picked the Smoak salmon over the apricot Rizzoto you probably ended up eating Humber pie for desert.

Below is a list of players from every NL team whom I’d describe as “sleepers.” By sleeper I mean a player who will likely drift into the later rounds of most drafts and who may not even get drafted, but who may end up accumulating considerable value over the season. Sometimes it can mean the difference between winning your league championship outright, or having to listen to your cousin Freddy lecture you on unsustainable BABIP for an entire off-season. In some cases I may take the liberty of picking two sleepers from a single team if  I feel that they truly qualify under the “sleeper” criteria. I’m going to start with our NL only players and hopefully conclude with AL sleepers next week. The criteria are as follows.

Player must possess at least one characteristic from each of groups A, B, and C.

Note: Unless otherwise specified benchmarks are for a full major league season.

Nationals:

Nathan Karns SP

The Nats were a tough one to start with, there just aren’t many sleepers on this roster. I wanted to go with Anthony Rendon at third but unless Zimmerman goes down I don’t think he has a shot, at least not until later in the year (it’s scary to think who they may be tempted to trade Rendon for at mid-season). I like this kid Nathan Karns, good velocity, good movement, and a good approach. He can work out of the bullpen or start, this kid has great stuff. If Haren goes down he may be the guy.

Qualifying Criteria: A8 / B5 / C7

Phillies

John Lannan SP

I thought about John Mayberry who slugged .410 with 8 homers and a .737 OPS in the second half last year, but then I saw John Lannan. I’ve always liked this guy’s tenacity and I think he’s a perfect match for the Phillies. If things break right Lannan could win 14 – 16 games. Remember he pitched 184 innings with a 3.70 ERA in 2011.

QC: A8 / A9 / B4 / C9

Braves

Brandon Beachy SP

Remember this guy? He’s going to be back probably sometime before the break, and he’s going to be peachy, like a Georgia peach … get it? Georgia? Atlanta? Never mind. You need look no further than this guy’s 2011 totals to cringe (if you’re a Met fan!).

QC: A9 / A8 / B4 / C8

Mets

Bobby Parnell RP

The Mets have some really interesting options in the “sleeper” category. I considered Valdespin or Murphy (who I think may have a huge year). But if we’re talking a guy who will probably drift into the later rounds who could really help your team, Parnell may end up racking up the lion’s share of saves for the Mets.

QC: A8 / B4 / C7

Jordany Valdespin 2B/OF

Ok, after looking at Jordani’s line from today I’m going to include him. It’s not really a stretch to project this kid hitting 15 homers with 20+ stolen bases and a .270 AVG if he wins an OF spot outright, and that’s definitely sleeper territory.

QC: A1 / B3 / C4

Marlins

Justin Ruggiano OF

The Marlins are like the opposite of the Nats. Have you seen their roster? Who are these guys? Henderson Alvarez and Nathan Eovaldi have the potential to put things together, but I’m going to go with Justin Ruggiano and his .313 AVG, .581 SLG, and 990 OPS in 288 at bats last year, oh and he had 14 stolen bases. This guy is almost too good to be a sleeper, but he is on the Marlins with a guy named Giancarlo, so he may not get noticed much.

QC: A2 / B1 / C2

Cardinals

Jon Jay OF

The Cardinals were tough. They didn’t have a lot of sleeper candidates, their bullpen is muddled albeit deep, their outfield is crowded and injury prone. Oscar Taveras is by some (overzealous Cardinal fans) proclaimed the best hitting prospect in the Galaxy, (were it not of course for Ugz Rasglog in the Great Andromeda Nebula we’d be saying “best hitting prospect in the Universe”) … Taveras will probably hit the scene later in the year so for those who don’t want to wait, there is perennial waiver-wire resident Jon Jay and his 19 SB’s, a .300 AVG and a .359 OBP from last year. He’s not really a sleeper, but he’s a guy who will probably fall into the later rounds as he’s missed some time last couple of seasons.

QC: A4 / B3 / C2

Oscar Taveras OF

I thought it over and realized this guy is just too good and the Redbird outfield is just too injury prone not to include him. Pretty sure he’ll be up for good after the break regardless so it isn’t too much of a risk if you can carry him. He’s officially one of my sleepers.

QC: A1 / B7 / C4

Reds

Zack Cozart SS

I was thinking of going with Shin-Soo Choo but that fantasy cat’s been out of the bag for a while now. No, I think I’ll go with Cozart, whose name rhymes with Cuisinart and who hit the scene with a big splash in 2011 but suffered a bit of a sophomore reality check in 2012. Still, he hit 15 homers and will likely go undrafted until the later rounds, so if you’re looking for some pop from the position you could do a lot worse.

QC: A1 / B3 / C2

Brewers

Norichika Aoki OF

I love this guy, he’s the new Choo. He’s got a quick bat, quick feet, and some pop. Suffered a bit from a platoon split but if you can carry him his 30 steals alone make him worth it. Honorable mention: Carlos Gomez – (CarGo II?) our old squeaky voiced friend who had a break out season is definitely worth a flier.

QC: A4 / B3 / C2

Pirates

Starling Marte OF

On a team with oodles of sleeper candidates, A.J., to Walker, to Liriano, there’s no doubt. This kid reminds me a little of Roberto Clemente. Little known fact – he had to change the “e” in his name to an “a” to get around the Wilpons’ Sterling copyright … He’s McCutchen light at least.

QC: A1 / B3 / C8

Cubs

Jorge Soler OF

Keep an eye on this kid folks, he’s been described as a right handed Cliff Floyd with out the blood curdling pulled-hammy screams. Sick power, and good eye, kid seems to be the complete package. He’s tough to qualify because he came out of Cuba pretty much Major League ready, but I understand he plays the ukulele. He could be 2013’s version of Yoenis Caspides (maybe without the steals).

QC: A1 / B9 / C8

Giants

Brandon Belt 1B

I hate this pick because of the hype this guy had surrounding him when he came up. He seemed to figure a few things out in the second half last year and he did hit 16 dingers. He’s also been tearing it up this spring so maybe he’s on the verge of realizing some of that potential, but don’t Belt on it.

QC: A1 / B7 / C3

Dodgers

Luis Cruz 3B

Easy one. Did anybody notice this kid was like the only guy on the Dodgers roster who could hit down the stretch last year? Ultimate under the radar guy on a team stacked with big names. He’s a bit of a stretch but I’d keep an eye on him at a position that’s become increasingly thin on offense.  He can rack up hits and he gets on base.

QC: A4 / B7 / C4

Diamondbacks

Paul Goldschmidt 1B

I dropped this guy early last year because of his name … didn’t sound like a first baseman’s name to me (first basemen have names like “Lance” or “Ike” or “Tony”) — he sounded like a catcher or 3^rd baseman. Dumb dumb dumb — 20 dingers, 18 steals and 43 doubles later I was kicking myself.  He plays a big offensive position but don’t let this guy fly under the radar in deeper leagues, he can do a little of everything.

QC: A4 / B7 / C3

Padres

Yasmani Grandal C

He’s suspended, but Yasmani’ll be back, and he’ll hit, even in June when his testosterone will be back to normal levels. If you can’t get past the PED thing, over Yonder is Yonder Alonso, a borderline sleeper. If you miss out on the elite catchers, Grandal could be sneaky way to shore up your catching later in the season. He’ll get passed up by most.

QC: A1 / B7 / C8

There you have it sports fans, I’ve got a few others in my pocket that I’m going to keep for myself, but feel free to add any you think I may have missed in the comments section. You can never have enough sleeper candidates.

As an added bonus, here is a handy little instrument on durability that I found on Bleacher Report. On this chart, Red = high injury risk, Yellow = a moderate risk, and Green = low risk. I don’t agree with it in places but it’s not bad as a whole.

That’s how Joel Sherman of the NY Post began his article this morning in which he asserts that this is the last year the Mets general manager gets to explain away a worsening major league product in the name of rebuilding.

The patience extended the Alderson regime, in general, is greater than most in his position receive around here. Consider Brian Cashman’s Yankees have made the playoffs 14 of his 15 years as GM, including last season when they had the AL’s best record and actually won a playoff round.

Alderson took a 79-win team that got Omar Minaya fired and turned it into a 77-win team, then a 74-win team. And it would surprise few watching the Mets this spring if they won 73 or fewer in 2013.

I agree with him and most of the fans I speak to lately, all see this season as the one where their patience in Alderson needs to pay off and start showing signs that are visible in the standings and on the field.

Alderson took over a troubled roster with some bloated contracts that are now mostly gone. The biggest contract on the Mets, now belongs to David Wright and it was Alderson who signed off on it.

The years of shedding established stars for minor league prospects have taken its toll on the major league squad, especially in the outfield where the damage is most visible. But the farm system has grown and is stocked with many promising right-handed starters and versatile shortstops. However, lefthanded starters, outfielders, and corner infielders are still in short supply.

While Alderson has gone into each season under the guise of competitiveness and “not punting”, you didn’t need a trained eye to see what was really happening here. This was a rebuild all the way.

But this is also New York, and you can’t be stuck in a perpetual rebuilding loop. At some point the results need to start pointing up and that promise of “better days ahead” needs to become more apparent.

So yes, this year is Alderson’s “no more excuses” season with the Mets. Or as Sherman calls it, “his final Mulligan.”

His cash outlay for 2013 is around $80 million, far less than he was allowed to spend.

In 2014 he has about $38 million in payroll obligations.

There will be no more free passes after 2013 and all Sandy will have to stand on is the team’s won-loss record from here on in.

The time for talking about the future is coming to an end… The time for delivering on that future is now at hand.

Overpowering and arguably flawless in yesterday’s start against Miami, Harvey had one of those seamless starts pitchers rarely have in their third spring training game.

Dillon Gee, today’s starter against Detroit in Lakeland, has no such illusions.

“My mechanics are off,’’ Gee said. “It will be just my third start of the spring, so they are bound to be off. Spring training is for trying to figure out that kind of stuff.’’

Gee insists it is not an injury-related mechanical problem, but a matter of working off the rust that is a natural occurrence this time of year. It’s part of the process of getting ready to make 30 stars a summer.

“It’s all about location,’’ said Gee as he laced up his shoes while sitting at his locker yesterday afternoon. “Location is all about repetition early in spring training. I’m trying to refine everything.’’

As it is with Harvey and Jon Niese, Gee said mastering his change-up is the pitch he most needs to refine that will tell him if he’s ready to start the season. A change-up is thrown with the same motion as the fastball, and even though the pitcher uses the same grip, he releases the pitch with a different pressure on the ball.

“The change-up is such a feel pitch,’’ Gee said. “It takes time to feel comfortable with it. … Having good results would be good, but the important thing is to feel comfortable with all my pitches and improve my location.’’

Gee made a good impression in 2011, going 13-6 with 114 strikeouts and 71 walks in 160.2 innings. He was 6-7 with a 4.10 ERA in 109.2 innings last year before it was cut short when he had surgery to repair an artery in his shoulder.

Gee complained of numbness in his arm and hand that prevented him from properly gripping the ball. The injury generated the uneasy speculation of there being a problem with blood circulation, which naturally lends itself to concern about a heart issue.

Surgery repaired the problem and alleviated the heart concern, but Gee still had the concern about his ability to throw. He rehabbed and threw in the bullpen in mid-September to preclude the wonder of a winter of not knowing.

“I wanted to prove to myself and everybody else that I could still pitch,’’ Gee said of the importance of getting on mound before winter. “I didn’t want to wait and then find out there was something wrong (in spring training). If that were the case it would have been too late to get it fixed.’’

The farm system may be in much better shape, and their projected 2014 payroll will be in the bottom of the majors for now – potentially opening a lot of financial flexibility going forward. However, is doom and gloom in store for the 2013 edition of the Mets? Or can they win the WAR?

While I´ll acknowledge that Wins Above Replacement is a somewhat flawed method of measuring talent – especially considering the flaws of defensive stats in this metric – it is still a sound way to judge a team overall.

So, the question is, what kind of an impact have this offseason’s transactions had on the team’s WAR compared to 2012? And how will it evolve in 2013?

Let’s examine the situation, and for those of you wondering, I’ll be using Baseball Reference’s version of WAR to conduct my analysis.

2013 Rotation: Net Gain 0.5 WAR

RA Dickey and his 5.6 WAR is gone, as are Chris Young (0.7 WAR) and Mike Pelfrey (0.9 WAR). In all likelihood, Chris Schwinden and his -0.6 WAR won´t return either. So, overall, 6.6 in WAR have to be made up and accounted for – a daunting task indeed.

Newly acquired Shaun Marcum posted a 1.3 WAR in 2012 and a 2.9 WAR in 2011. Splitting the difference, let´s assume his 2013 WAR will  2.1 as one member of this rotation.

The rest will have to be made up in-house.

Matt Harvey posted a strong 1.6 WAR in one third of a season. Since I very much believe in him, let´s assume he doubles his 2012 totals (tripling it would seem a bit outlandish). So, there´s a 3.2 WAR and thus a gain of 1.6.

Jonathon Niese had a 3.2 WAR in 2012. Let´s assume he matches that again this season and doesn´t take a step forward. Thus,.no change.

Dillon Gee posted a 0.8 WAR in 2012 while missing almost half the season. Let´s say he´s 100% back and almost doubles his previous total to a 1.5 WAR in 2013.

That leaves Johan Santana and his 0.1 WAR for 2012.

Santana’s WAR through June would was closer to 2.0 prior to his collapse over his final ten outings of the season. Let´s assume, he pitches to a modest 1.0 WAR for half the season and then gets replaced by Zack Wheeler for the other half who does half as well as Matt Harvey did in his debut. Overall, we can expect a 1.8 WAR from both of them combined.

Finally, we have Collin McHugh who made a few starts and posted a -0.9 WAR in 2012, thanks to a couple of atrocious outings late in the year while due to fatigue. Let´s assume he performs at a 0.0 replacement level.

Taking all of that conservatively projected data into consideration along with the historical data leads us to this conclusion.

The Mets needed to make up for the loss of 6.6 in Wins Above replacement.

When you calculate Marcum’s 2.1 WAR, plus the net gains of Harvey (1.6 WAR), Gee (0.8 WAR), the 1.7 WAR we could get from the Santana and Wheeler combination, and McHugh (0.9 WAR), it results in a total net gain of 7.1 in WAR.

So, overall, the rotation gains half a win vs. 2012.

2013 Bullpen: Net Gain 4.5 WAR

The Mets had one of the worst bullpens in the league in 2012.

Frank Francisco – in an injury riddled season posted a – 0.7 WAR and now seems DL bound for an extended period of time. Jon Rauch, Ramon Ramirez and Tim Byrdak (due to injury) are all gone from the 2012 cast and overall they combined for a 0.0 WAR last season. Manny Acosta and his -1.2 WAR is headed to Japan. Miguel Batista and his -0.2 WAR will write his poems for the Braves in 2013.

Meanwhile, the Mets have brought in Brandon Lyon (1.2 WAR in 2012), RH Scott Atchison (1.7 WAR in 2012), Pedro Feliciano (0.0 due to missing the season), Aaron Laffey ( 0.2 WAR) and LaTroy Hawkins (- 0.1 WAR). I´ll assume only Lyon, Atchison and Feliciano land a spot and replace Rauch – Ramirez – Byrdak. Conservative as I am, I´ll pencil in Lyon & Atchison for half as good a season and Feliciano as neutral. Gain: 1.5

Acosta is replaced in-house by either Jeurys Familia or Greg Burke. Since I like the latter ones quite a bit, I´ll project them as a +0.8 WAR reliever combined. Gain: 2.0

Finally, Josh Edgin posted a – 0.1 WAR in 2012 in his brief debut. Blessed with a power arm, he does modestly decent and finishes with a 0.4 WAR overall. Gain: 0.5

FF returns at some point and remains a disappointment. But instead of – 0.7, only is a – 0.2 reliever in 2013. Gain: 0.5

Parnell repeats his 2012 season as the new Mets closer.

Adding everything up, the bullpen turns from atrocious to a solid average. Yet, an overall gain of 4.5 Wins.

2013 Infield: Net Gain 3.5 Wins

Most of the 2012 Infield is back. David Wright – Ruben Tejada – Daniel Murphy – Ike Davis combined for a 10.5 WAR in 2012 – in spite of Murphy learning a new position,  Ike being limited by valley fewer, Tejada missing an extended stretch of time, and Wright being almost unprotected in the lineup most of the season.

The average age of the four regular infielders entering 2013 is 26.5 and thus pretty close to the prime years for a baseball player. Let´s assume Wright regresses slightly from 6.7 to 4.5, however Tejada improves from 1.9 to 2.5 over a full season, Murphy´s defensive improvements over the 2nd half of the season last to bring his WAR up from 1.2 to 2.0 while Ike finally has the break-out we´ve all been expecting and plays defense like in 2011 and 2010 to post a 3.0 WAR vs. 0.7 in 2012. Overall, that´s a gain of 1.5 Wins from these 4 players.

The backup infielder Cedeno (+ 0.3) is replaced by Hicks (-0.1) or Quintanilla (+0.5). Splitting the difference, this remains unchanged.

At Catcher, Josh Thole (- 0.1) gets replaced by John Buck (0.4 WAR in 2012) for a gain of half a win.

Backups Mike Nickeas (-0.7) and Rob Johnson (-0.2) are replaced by Anthony Recker (0 WAR in 2012) and Rookie Travis D´Arnaud. Being very conservative, I´ll give the latter two a combined 2013 WAR of merely + 0.6. Still, overall, that´s a 1.5 WIN gain vs. the terrible 2012 backup combo.

Adding things up, the catching improves by 2 Wins, the Infield by 1.5 wins for a total of + 3.5 wins.

 2013 Outfield: Net Gain 3.0 Wins

Ah, the outfield. A collection of rejects and suspects that has lost Scott Hairston (+ 1.5) and Andres Torres (+ 1.2) and Jason Bay (- 1.3 WAR in 2012). Total loss: 1.4 WAR.

Among newcomers, Collin Cowgill (+ 0.3 in limited action in 2012) figures to double his AB for a total WAR of + 0.6. Marlon Byrd (- 0.5 in 2012 but 1.7 in 2011) and Andrew Brown (-0.1) are competing for a spot. Let´s assume, overall they post a 0.4 WAR, so the new guys combine for 1.0 WAR.

That leaves things up to returnees.

Lucas Duda combined disappointing offense and horrible defense in RF for a – 1.4 WAR in 2012. With an easier assignment in LF and a better offensive approach, he emerges as a modestly solid player to post a 0.6 WAR – for a 2 WAR gain overall.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis had his ups & downs and finished with a 0 WAR in 2012. At age 25, he´s poised for modest improvements and an expected WAR of a conservative 1.4 – which is still below average for a CF but certainly realistic.

Finally, Mike Baxter and his 0.3 returns to RF. He probably is what he is and remains unchanged.

Still doing the math, the outfield gains 3.0 Wins overall and “improves” from atrocious to well below average in 2013.

Overall Net Gain 11.5 Wins

Now of course, it only February 26 and a couple of the players here may change for a myriad of reasons as Spring Training battles are waged in St. Lucie, but we have a good case here to believe the Mets as currently constructed can out produce what they did in 2012. Even with the key losses of R.A. Dickey and Scott Hairston.

All included, the 2013 Mets gain 11.5 wins vs. their 2012 counterparts. Please note that these projections do not include monster-breakouts for anyone. Just gradual improvements which you´d expect for generally young players and no crippling injuries.

Adding 11.5 wins to a total of 74 wins in 2012, you get to 85.5 wins. Not good enough to beat the Nationals for the division and probably behind the Braves as well. But certainly good enough to challenge the Phillies for 3rd place in the NL East and thus compete for the second Wild Card in the NL. And if players such as D´Arnaud, Wheeler, Ike or Duda really happen to break out in a big way, there´s upside for an even higher total. But let´s stop dreaming and “only” look at a glass that could be a lot closer to “half full” than people realize.

Prospect maven John Sickels really loves righthander Noah Syndergaard, who he ranked #12 on his Top 50 Pitching Prospects list inside his 2013 Baseball Prospect Book. 

He shared what he wrote about Syndergaard on his site Minor League Ball this morning:

Noah Syndergaard is one of my very favorite prospects. A supplemental first round pick in 2010 from high school in Texas, he’s thrived thus far in pro ball, generating very enthusiastic scouting reports to go along with excellent statistics. Syndergaard has a 92-98 MPH sinking fastball that gets on top of hitters quickly. He picks up a lot of grounders (2.16 GO/AO), while maintaining a strong strikeout rate (122/31 K/BB in 104 innings in Low-A, just 81 hits). He’s developed a very good changeup, and I think his curveball is underrated. He commands all three pitches well, shows positive mound presence, and seems like he will be durable. The Blue Jays have managed his workload well. Assuming no injuries or weird command slippages, Syndergaard can develop into a number two starter. I really like him. He was traded to the Mets in the R.A. Dickey deal. Grade A-

“The knock on Syndergaard has always been his breaking ball, which needed a lot of tightening, ” says Sickels. But he adds that in the second half of last season he saw much improvement. He admits that he likes the new Mets addition better than most, and that other sources don’t share the same enthusiasm, and mentions that Baseball America has Syndergaard ranked at #54 due to concerns about the righthander’s secondary pitches not being very impressive.

To see a video of Syndergaard, check out SNY’s Toby Hyde interviewed him over at Mets Minor League Blog. Hyde talks to him about how he found out he was traded for Dickey and also asks him about his arsenal which now includes a slider to go with his fastball, change and hook.

This was the same player that had a .298 avg. a .908 OPS and a .403 OBP in AAA as a 23 year old, but major league pitchers figured him out. They’d pour in a couple of early strikes, some breaking pitches to mess up his line of sight, and would finish him off with a fastball up and in.

Early on Kirk was swinging at everything — including that first strike or two. With a 0 – 0 count, Kirk hit .364. He was clobbering get-me-over strikes. With an 0 – 1 count his average dropped to .250, still, not bad. Now all hitters do poorly with 2 strikes, but not quite as poorly as Kirk. With an 0 – 2 count Kirk hit .172, with a 1 – 2 count he hit .175, with a 2 – 2 count he hit .145 (!). Given a relatively neutral “start from scratch” 3 – 2 count, Kirk hit .129!  Why would Kirk hit worse with a 3 – 2 or a 2 – 2 count than he would with a 0 – 2 count? Your guess is as good as mine, but maybe he was trying too hard to work walks on those counts. The take away here is that the more pitches Kirk sees the more his average drops.

The drop-off from the first part of his season (his first 6 weeks) to his 2nd half was unbelievable (he ended the season on a 9 for 73 skid), and while he did strike out a lot in the minors, he also put up some pretty decent numbers — especially in 2011 at AAA with a .408 obp. Sure the league adjusted to him, but 9 for 73?

Strangely, Kirk’s K-rates month to month don’t really tell us much – they’re fairly flat, but Kirk sure did make out more as the year progressed. He went from a 26.7% K-rate in AAA in 2011 (he was actually at 21.5% in 94 games in 2010 at AA) to a 31.2% rate in the majors which is a hefty jump, but lets chalk that up to the higher level of competition. 63 of Kirks K’s came after a first pitch strike and my sense is than an inordinate number of them were called strikes (Kirk needs to be swinging at that first pitch).

But here’s the kicker — again, forget about K-rates for a moment — Kirk hit .125 after working the count to 3 – 2 (for the season), he hit .138 on 2 – 2 counts, and on the ultimate hitter’s count, 3 – 1, he hit a measly .231. On the other hand, he hit .417 on 0 – 0 counts, .611 on 1 – 0 counts, and .522 on 1 – 1 counts. This is a kid who does not do well deep in counts.

Here’s another tidbit, of his 3 full months, his highest drop in avg (from .323 down to .263) coincided with his highest walk total (10) for a single month. Obviously after a torrid April it was impressed upon Kirk to try and walk more. This sent his avg into a tailspin from which it never recovered. In what universe would you preach patience to a player who seems to be at his best when he is most aggressive? A good development program tailors adjustments to talented players even when they aren’t perfect fits … this obviously did not happen for Kirk, in fact they defied convention and tried to make a high OBP lead-off type hitter out of him. Naturally, his performance tanked because his particular skill-set was disinclined to that particular role.

Did Kirk strike out more as he took more pitches? Not really, but he did make out more — his BABIP went from .453 in April, to .396 in May, to .283 in June, to .200 in July. Kirk, while not necessarily striking out more, had a ton of soft grounders mixed in with a healthy dose of pop ups and fly balls because he was too tentative and had completely lost his confidence.
Here’s the breakdown again:

HIGH pitch count

3 – 2  .125
2 – 2  .138
3 – 1  .231

LOW pitch count

0 – 0  .417
1 – 0  .611
1 – 1 . 522

Kirk hit .231 on 3 – 1 counts and .200 on 3 – 0 counts. These are hitters counts for crying out loud! David Wright hit .333 on 3 – 2 counts and .413 on 3 – 1 counts! Ruben Tejada hit .444 on 3 – 1 counts. Good lord even Mike Nickeas hit .333 on 3 – 1 counts!  I think Kirk might simply be prone to getting his line of sight messed up when he see’s a lot of pitches and he swings at pitches out of the zone resulting in weak contact.

Another thing to consider with Kirk is that while batting eye rarely improves very much, power almost always does for young players. So here we have this kid who strikes out 31% of the time (Ryan Howard struck out over 30% of the time too), maybe he improves to 26% or 27% (closer to what he was in the minors). I’ll take that any day from a solid fielding Center fielder if it comes with an 800 ops and 20 – 25 homers … sort of a Mark Reynolds / Mark Cameron hybrid, but a lead-off hitter? No.

The premise is essentially pedagogical. I think there was a conflict of program and skill set that confounded Kirk’s progress. Teachers who tailor their instruction to their students’ strengths rather than focusing exclusively on the remediation of weaknesses tend see more improvement. You don’t try and teach a 350 lb. lineman how to play Safety. Nelson Cruz had a .319. OBP last year, did the Rangers bat him in the lead-off spot? Of course not, the vast majority of Cruz’ at bats were in the #5 and #6 spots. Sure, maybe Cruz has a lot more redeeming traits than Kirk, but Kirk was a pretty good player in the minors, who is to say he might not have shown a less gradual drop-off in his production in 2012 if he hadn’t been overwhelmed by having to bat lead-off?

Would Kirk benefit from being more patient in the here and now? I’m willing to entertain that (especially as his BB rate was almost twice what it was in AAA than it was in 2012), but putting him in the lead-off spot can not possibly help him in that regard — he wasn’t ready for it. What happens when you overburden learners before they are ready? Well, not only do they almost always fail, but you destroy their confidence, which is perhaps the worst thing that can happen to a young player.

If you’re going to make a more patient hitter out of Kirk Nieuwenhuis, you don’t do it by moving him from pre-algebra to particle physics in the same quarter. You do it gradually, and in the meantime, you’d hope there is room on the Mets for players who don’t fit organizational tenets but provide value in other ways. Kirk was a success story who’d shown improvement at every level and was coming off a stint in AAA where he’d put up a +15% walk rate and a +.400 OBP. He has the tools (speed, some gap power, good defense) to become a valuable player. The Mets need to recognize his strengths and talents and build a player based on them rather than trying to reinvent a Kirk Nieuwenhuis that bears no resemblance to the one who was brought up from AAA last year.

Did Kirk try to be more patient when he was put in the lead-off spot? Who knows, maybe he didn’t, maybe he thought screw you Collins you ancient white haired little gremlin, I’m going to do what got me here, I’m going to swing at every frigging thing they throw at me. That’s possible. Or, more likely, he was a good soldier, did what he and every baseball player and coach knows a lead-off hitter is supposed to do and tried to get on base at a higher clip.

Initially he was successful walking 10 times in May, but at what price? He sacrificed the aggressiveness that was at the core of his success, he became tentative and uncertain, his attempts to make contact resulted in an extraordinary number of soft grounders to go along with his already high strike outs and dwindling walks. Things went from bad to worse as he became ever more desperate to make contact and pitchers more and more pitched him outside the zone.

Putting Nieuwinhuis in the lead-off role is asking for trouble given his history. Will he fail? Well, if Collins is determined to bat him lead-off I would still root for him hoping against the odds that the succeeds, and if he does I’ll be the fist to acknowledge that perhaps he’s a better student of the game than I’d given him credit for, but it’s asking an awful lot from a rookie whose got some valuable redeeming qualities independent of his ability to work walks.

There appear to be two major obstacles standing in the way of the Mets.  They will most certainly need to make changes to a disastrous outfield, but with budgets low, the options appear limited.  Lucas Duda went into last season off the back of a great end to 2011.  However, he failed to convert such momentum into results in 2012.  Meanwhile, Kirk Nieuwenhuis had his moments last season, but has hardly done enough to snap up a starting slot.  Mike Baxter looks like a great fourth outfielder, but once again he has not shown the quality needed to be a regular.  In short, the outfield line-up is anyone’s guess. Wear breathable baseball gloves when playing baseball for a comfortable game.

And then there is the Mets’ bullpen.  This is the area of the roster that can make or break a season and like the outfield, it is far from clear who will start in April.  Frank Francisco is likely to rotate with Bobby Parnell, but hopes of finding a true top-class pitcher may rest on one of the Mets’ younger prospects such as Jeurys Familia to step up to the plate.  Betting on football or baseball is never straightforward, but it appears a bet on Mets success in 2013 is a real long shot.

For the first six years of his baseball career, Jason Bay was one of the game’s up-and-coming stars. He toiled in relative obscurity, first with the San Diego Padres and then with the Pittsburgh Pirates, where his tenacious, hard-slugging style of play caught the attention of baseball fans everywhere.

After a two-season stretch with the Boston Red Sox, Bay reached the pinnacle of his career. He was able to test the free-agent market for the first time. Suitors lined up around the block. Bay knew his career would take him someplace special. It did, as Bay signed a lucrative four-year contract worth $66 million with the New York Mets before the 2010 season started.

How the Mets wish they could have that time back. From the minute Bay set foot in the Big Apple, he felt pressure to produce with that fat contract hanging from his neck like an albatross. It made for some uncomfortable times as frustrated Mets fans quickly realized they had been sold a bill of goods. This month, Bay and the Mets came to the same conclusion. He had underproduced, and the Mets wanted him out of town.

Bay will be paid the full $21 million he is owed on the contract, and the $15 million that is deferred money will come to him before the end of 2015. He certainly doesn’t leave New York a pauper. One of the nice things (for the players, anyway) about guaranteed contracts in Major League Baseball is that teams often have to pay every cent themselves, unless other teams agree to pick up salary in a trade. With the termination agreement, Bay becomes an immediate free agent and can test the market again, presumably with a smaller, incentive-loaded deal coming to mind.

So where did it go horribly wrong for Bay? His loss means fans can go to a Mets game and figure out Where to Park in NYC without worrying about watching an overpriced slugger throw away $21 million. Heck, Mets fans say, the Yankees do that with Alex Rodriguez in one year!

In Bay’s defense the bat that produced back-to-back 30-homer seasons with Pittsburgh in 2005 and 2006, plus another pair of 30-homer seasons in 2008 with Pittsburgh and the Boston Red Sox in 2009, may have been compromised by his hard, gritty style of play.

A concussion in 2010 limited Bay to 95 games, and rib injuries each of the past two seasons hampered Bay’s ability to swing the ball. He hit 26 home runs over his three seasons in New York, with his best campaign in 2011 when he hit 12 home runs and drove in 57. Citi Field is not a strong home-run hitting park either, and Citi’s dimensions were changed following the 2011 season to reflect that.

His past history will get Bay some free-agent looks. The consensus is this market is not really good and teams always can use help when it comes to power bats. Boston has been mentioned as a destination for Bay once again, especially with the mass housecleaning the Red Sox had this summer and fall. Because his price is likely to fall big time, smaller-spending teams like the Cleveland Indians are on his list. Supposedly, Bay loved playing under former Red Sox manager Terry Francona, who is now in Cleveland.

Jason Bay may not get another $66 million deal anytime soon, but a solid season could parlay into a better deal down the road. For now, the book closes on the Mets and an uncertain future lies ahead.

This Fan Shot was contributed by Rebecca. Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over 12 thousand Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com. Or ask us about becoming a regular contributor.

Buster Olney of ESPN.com reported that the Tampa Bay Rays will “probably” trade B.J. Upton over the offseason. The Rays came close to dealing their center fielder to the Washington Nationals prior to the trade deadline, but weren’t able to agree on the pieces before time ran out.

Upton made $4.825 million in 2011 and is due for a raise in what will be his final year of arbitration. The Rays currently have Desmond Jennings waiting in the wings and they believe he is ready to take over in center field.

At 27 years old, Upton still has loads of potential and he did hit 23 home runs and drove in 81 runs, but also batted .243 and struck out 161 times in the process.

Another option that has emerged is Cleveland Indians’ center fielder Grady Sizemore. Yesterday, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com reported that the Indians are expected to decline Sizemore’s $8.5 million dollar option for 2012.

Sizemore, 28, had micro-fracture surgery on his left knee in 2010 which required him to miss half of the 2010 and 2011 season, and recently underwent more surgery on the same knee, but is expected to be ready for Spring Training. In 268 at-bats this season he batted .224 with ten home runs and 30 RBIs.

Both players certainly have their own unique issues, but might still prove to be an upgrade over Angel Pagan who could get almost $5 million dollars in arbitration this Winter.

Sizemore will cost the Mets only money, while of course Upton will cost both player and money. Would either of them be worth the risk?

I’m sure regular readers here are familiar with the debate between XtreemIcon and me regarding the relevance of On-Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG) compared to Runs Batted In (RBI) as it correlates to Runs Scored (RS).

Now that the season is done I thought it was worth looking at the actual data to see what really correlates better to scoring runs: OBP, SLG, OPS(OBP+SLG) or RBI.

2011

(Click to enlarge)

The above chart shows the average differential in correlation between OBP, SLG OPS (OBP+SLG) and RBI.

RBI on average will correlate to RS ranking within plus or minus 0.800 of actual RS rank. It was never off by more than 4 for any team.

OBP will, on average, correlate to RS rank within plus or minus 2.600 of actual RS rank and was off by 12 in its worst prediction.

SLG was a bit better only missing by 2.467 on average with its worst prediction off by 6.

OPS (Which is a combo of OBP and SLG) fared not much better still missing by 1.600 on average but did not miss more than 5 to SLGs 6! Still worse than RBI did on prediction.

Neither OBP, SLG or OPS could predict who would be in the top 10 of RS but RBI was PERFECT as it predicted all of the top 10 teams.

What is significant though is the margin of error for any given team.

The Toronto Blue Jays and the Cincinnati Reds have no business being 6th and 7th in RS if OBP and SLG are the key. They should be much lower. Out of the top 10 for sure. But they are not and why is that? Their 7th and 9th ranked RBI of course.

XtreemIcon would like to limit the proof to the top 5 teams, I wonder why? Could it be that #6 team the Toronto Blue Jays, Whose RBI predicted would be there but his OBP and SLG said they had no business being in the top 10 at all?

He tries to argue against this by demanding a bottom 5 team in OBP has to be in the Top 5 to prove OBP wrong. If a bottom 5 team was top 5 in RBI then it would! Unfortunately most bottom 5 teams suck at everything including OBP and RBI.

In the end OPS predicted 9 out of 10 of the top 10 teams while RBI predicted them all.

2010

RBI on average will correlate to RS ranking within plus or minus 0.800 of actual RS rank. It was never off by more than 4 for any team.

OBP will on average correlate to RS rank within plus or minus 3.600 of actual RS rank and was off by 17 in its worst prediction.

SLG was a bit better than OBP but worse compared to 2011 missing by 2.933 on average with its worst prediction off by 11.

OPS fared better still missing by 2.600 on average but whose worse prediction was off by 11.

Neither OBP, SLG nor OPS could accurately predict who would show up in the top 10 of RS yet RBI was PERFECT.

If what XtreemIcon says is true then Tampa Toronto and the Phillies should not be in the top 10 under any circumstances. The Tigers and Brewers should be instead. They fall just short but where their RBI says they should pretty much be.

The Toronto Blue jays again throw a wicked wrench into the OBP/SLG theory of correlation. It also pretty much dowses the defended notion that OBP and SLG produce High RBI and not the fact that High RBi is merely recorded as an OB and in many cases is a hit that contains a heavier SLG as well but the SLG and the OB itself is not required for a high RBI result to occur.

Toronto was high in SLG low in OBP which tends to suggest they hit a lot of Solo HRs which is the one stat they lead the league in. And as I have proposed many times what gets you that HR happens LONG before any base is touched, No base is in play when he whacked the ball over the fence and the fact of the TIMING that the RBI was BUREAUCRATICALLY recorded after the OB is inconsequential. The act that CAUSED the RBI was done in the batter’s box not after he touched a base.

The Phillies shouldn’t have been in the top 10 at all if OBP and SLG is significant but the RBI being key relates their ranking quite well.

And Tampa should be no better than 10th in RS as their OPS is 14th and pretty much would predict them OUT of the top ten… Again it is the RBI that is the key and it really doesn’t seem to matter what your OBP, SLG or OPS is in regards to getting those RBIs.

2009

Hmm… 2009 doesn’t seem to disprove any of the above points I made. In fact it shows RBI is even better this year with a 0.400 differential its worst prediction was off by 2.

OBP correlated to RS rank within plus or minus 3.933 of actual RS rank (Its worst year) and was off by 14 in its worst prediction.

SLG was a bit worse this year missing by 2.533 on average with its worst prediction off by 11.

OPS came closer to average still missing by 1.533 on average with a miss of 6 as its worst prediction.

OPS and SLG could tell you who were going to be in the top 10 this year, but not what order, RBI was near perfect and only missed because it swapped the Rockies with the Blue Jays in the rankings.

OBP failed miserably in predicting the list of top 10 teams on its own.

Site Note: Charts were also created for 2008, 2007 and 2006, but not included so that the page will load for our dial-up friends. Email the site if you would like them. 

2008

Again RBI predicts plus or minus 0 .667 on average the correct ranking of RS compared to 3.900, 3.100, and 2.167 of OBP, SLG and OPS.

OBP worst prediction off by 11, SLG off by 16, OPS off by 13, RBI only 3.

Twins should not be in the top 5 if you read the OBP/SLG/OPS but RBI predicts precise placement.

Mets shouldn’t be there either if RS needs OBP and SLG to be produced.

St Louis did everything you claimed was important to scoring runs and increasing RS yet wasn’t even in the top 10 of Runs Scored. WHAT HAPPENED?

2007

Again RBI predicts plus or minus 1.133 on average the correct ranking of RS compared to 3.833, 3.300, and 2.300 of OBP, SLG and OPS.

OBP worst prediction off by 15, SLG off by 11, OPS off by 9, RBI only off by 3.

Only case where OBP/SLG/OPS come up with the correct answer when RBI does not is Atlanta.

But it also says Angels Rangers and Indians should not be there yet they are. RBI predicts them accurately as top 10 teams in RS

One more year just for good measure.

2006

RBI predicts plus or minus 1 .033 on average the correct ranking of RS compared to 4.800, 3.600, and 2.333 of OBP, SLG and OPS.

OBP worst prediction off by 16, SLG off by 11, OPS off by 10, and yet again RBI only off by 3 at most.

Damn those pesky Toronto Blue Jays who have in most years screwed up your assertion regarding OBP/SLG/OPS as in this year they should have been right at the top of RS yet only wound up 12th.

Now with all that data displayed and seeing how much of a crap shoot OBP/SLG/OPS is at predicting who is going to score the most runs does it really make using those crap-shoots as a good judge of who will help you score those runs?

Or is as the data clearly shows, that if you target players who consistently drive in runs, it will translate FAR BETTER in increasing Runs Scored than using OBP/SLG or OPS?

I think this should finally put to rest this supposed 30 years of research no one has ever seen that says OBP+SLG is the great prerequisite to Runs Scored when clearly it doesn’t correlate at all.

Good teams who score a lot of runs will in MANY cases have good numbers in OBP and SLG as well. And saying that higher OBP+SLG will result in higher Runs Scored is Simply Not True.

In the charts shown there are a ton of teams with higher OBP and SLG than so many other teams and yet they still did not score more runs.

I was challenged to name one team with a low ranked OBP that finished the season ranked high in runs scored. The Detroit Tigers had the sixth worse OBP in 2006 and they were eighth in runs scored. So much for the OBP.

This Fan Shot was submitted by Mike (Metsie). Have something you want to say about the Mets? Share your opinions with over eleven-thousand Mets fans who read this site daily. Send your Fan Shot to GetMetsmerized@aol.com.