Mets Merized Online

You know how on a mini golf course, you might be playing well, and then you meet a green where the hole lies in a hump or mound. . Nothing feels worse than thinking you’re going to reach the top, sink the shot, only to realize you’ve come up inches short, back comes your ball, and now you’re in the same or worse position, plus a stroke and the blow to your confidence to-boot.

For many of MLB’s recurrent disappointments of years past, which clubs are poised to conquer the proverbial hump in 2010, who will find themselves back where they started, and can any fantasy sense be made of this?

Kansas City Royals W

Perpetual underdog Kansas City Royals have posted one winning season since 1994, however the 2010 club finally looks poised to move in the right direction in the seedy AL Central. Acing arguably baseball’s best young pitcher Zack Grienke, GM Dayton Moore is set to finally fulfill is prophecy of turning the royals from a last place team into a team that might finish somewhere in the middle. Acquisitions of veterans like OF Scott Podsednik who atop the order should be a spark-plug and run-generator, and C Jason Kendall who’s known as a positive presence in the clubhouse and strong defensively, bring leadership, and offensive support to the Royals who were lacking prior. I felt as though they expected too much from their younger position players in ’09 and the pick-up of once promising superstar Josh Fields is a risk with a tremendous upside. Plagued with injury, if Fields can stay healthy we might see a glimpse of the budding star who replaced third basemen Joe Crede in Chicago. KC boasts a strong, hard-throwing bullpen with Juan Cruz and 100 mph man Kyle Farnsworth as well as one of baseball’s best closers and all-star, Joakim Soria whose drawn comparisons to Mariano Rivera in recent years.

The real key might lie with their tenured guys and, Dejesus, Gordon, Butler, coming into their own as leaders and consistent hitters. Alex Gordon has had difficulties living up to his decorated college career at Nebraska and has suffered injury. His dislocated thumb last Saturday will likely result in a 2-3 week absence, but Fields should have no inhibitions filling his cleats at third. Gordon is long due for a breakout season and to enter the ranks of MLB’s best third basemen. Don’t let the thumb injury deter you; he’s worth a late round fantasy pick as he sits well down the list. DeJesus is often overvalued, but Butler and Aviles are tempting (remember these are possible late round scores). This team will go far with fundamental baseball, and is no longer a bottom feeder in the AL Central.

Washington Nationals

Jim Riggleman’s been dropping hints as of late, that 21 year old righty, Stephen Strasburg will be playing in the minors to start 2010. Even after glowing endorsements from C Ivan Rodriguez. Last year in the twilight of his career at San Diego State, a top scout boasted,

“You could put him in a rotation right now, and he could be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter,”

“Right now, he’s better than A.J. Burnett.”

The talk of D.C and area, the tall righty carries a slider in the mid-nineties, a fastball that sits in high nineties, a knee buckling curve ball and a well manicured changeup in his arsenal. Washington, give your fans something to watch and simultaneously give your future star a full dose of MLB hitting. By not starting Strasburg, who has to be better than someone in your rotation, you’re telling your team their future will have to wait, which could hurt morale among veteran players. He’s 21 and not exceedingly young. With an 0-6 in Grapefruit action and only 1B Mike Morse showing any offensive pulse; expect more of the same in Washington amidst the fierce NL East and another last place finish, but some fantasy diamonds in the rough. 3B Ryan Zimmerman, OF Josh Willingham and SS Cristian Guzman tend to be undervalued. I often look at low end teams for late round scores like these.

Seattle Mariners L

I’m not sold on this team. The only players that stoke me are the returning guys, Hernandez and Suzuki. Eric Bedard however, is still showing signs of an impending breakdown, like when my ’94 Nissan Sentra started sounding like Susan Boyle going no. 2 after hemorrhoid surgery. The city has an unbreakable bond with Griffey and he’ll likely be the teams DH following arguably the worst year hitting of his glorious career in ‘09 at .214. As a fan I love to watch him play, from an organizational standpoint, he may become an offensive liability. I don’t feel like monotonous bad boy Milton Bradley has anything physically or mentally left after his Chicago experience and feel a fit coming. Figgins was paid too high above market value. Brandon League has not shown any commitment to developing his amazing raw talent. They do possess one of the strongest rotations in the league with Hernandez, Lee, Rowland-Smith, Bedard? and ex-pirate Snell, but pitching has never been this team’s problem. This team has no one to cash in runs; Jose Lopez is likely your biggest bat. If your league accounts pitching, Hernandez is a really strong pick, otherwise no one’s landing on my fantasy radar. I see a strong start in a weak division and obviously not a last place finish, but an underwhelming result.

Baltimore Orioles W

A top to bottom roster comprised of strong defensive talent and looming offensive breakout seasons from CF Adam Jones and C Matt Wieters. Coupled with proven hitters the likes of Tejada, Atkins, Scott and run generator Brian Roberts and you have a competitive, watchable season ahead in Baltimore. Kevin Millwood has proven that he does has much left to give (strange how that was under debate when he left Philadelphia years ago), pitching almost 200 innings in ‘09 posting a 3.67 ERA. If he can inspire that staff, look for the Orioles to make tremendous strides in the right direction this season and be competitive in this division for years to come. P Brian Matusz has looked strong in Grapefruit action as well. Fantasy wise Matt Wieters is a solid risk as a “tier 2” catcher, but 2B Brian Roberts, OF Adam Jones, OF Nick Markakis and 3B Miguel Tejada are all safe early round picks. Tejada’s ability to hit the long ball seems to be dwindling but he has not skipped a step with runners on base cashing 86 RBIs in ’09. To think the O’s finish any higher than third in the AL East is nonsensical. A very likable team here, I presume a hot start which will obviously taper leaving them and Tampa to battle it out for a respectable third place.

Honorable Mention

Oakland Athletics L

Moneyball is nonsensical. The groundbreaking (at the time) book snubs some of the game’s best like Prince Fielder and Alex Rodriguez as being not of Oakland’s ilk. Seemingly, Billy Beane has turned the club into a minor league team as they seem to dish all their young talent away, landing them a last place finish in ‘09. The AL West is tightening. Another last place finish dawns. Kurt Suzuki is a good pick if you wait late to take a catcher.

Arizona Diamondbacks W

This team is good, if pieces of paper with depth charts and 40-man rosters could play each other. Regardless, barring irreparable injury there is no way this team finishes last. Justin Upton may be a second round fantasy pick, but the starting rotation alone will carry this team to the postseason (my highest endorsement); hopefully they don’t throw “Billy” Buckner if it comes to a game 6 though.

There are several interesting player comparisons we can look at in the first few rounds of 2010 fantasy drafts. This season seems more muddled then normal, with very few clear-cut selections for fantasy owners to make due to injuries or epic struggles in 2009. One of the interesting debates right now comes in the second round, with David Wright (ADP 14.40) currently going a selection before Carl Crawford (ADP 15.17), on average.

Given the type of season David Wright had in 2009, does that really make sense (though, of course, your first round selection could play a role in your decision, I’m going to assume that you take a player that leaves both players likely)? Let’s take a look:

Speed:
There’s no questioning Crawford’s immense edge in the category. Outside of his injury plagued 2008 campaign, when he stole just 25 bases, he’s had at least 46 steals every year since 2003. In fact, he’s had 50 or more five times during that span including his career high of 60 last season.

He is one of the elite players in this regard, doing things that very few others are capable, especially since he contributes in other categories as well.

David Wright is no slouch when it comes to speed, but he’s far from elite. He’s had 20 or more stolen bases in three of the past four seasons, topping out at 34. It’s unlikely that he gets back to the level, though I wouldn’t say that it is impossible either.

If the Mets truly want to play a speed/defense game, they are going to open the floodgates for their baserunners to run rampant. Still, 30 seems to be the maximum level, with 25 or so a much more realistic number.

Average:
David Wright had one of those years in 2009 that is hard to explain. If you want to call it the pressure of trying to carry an offense as his teammates seemingly fell day after day due to injury. That helps to justify things later in the season, but not early on.

If you want to blame it on trying to adapt his game to the new CitiField, it’s possible, but again, it’s a tough sale. He’s proven to be too good of a hitter in the past to simply just flop like he did due to being placed in a new environment. And honestly, was Shea Stadium a hitter’s haven? Far from it.

Whatever the reason, David Wright saw his strikeout rate rise significantly. After posting a strikeout rate between 18.8% and 19.7% for four consecutive seasons, he seemed to find it impossible to make consistent contact, whiffing 26.2% of the time. People will point to that rate, and his inflated BABIP of .400, as a reason to believe his average will drop like a rock in 2010.

Again, I’m not buying it. Prior to last season he had consistently shown an ability to post a BABIP in the .350 range and I have to believe that he didn’t suddenly forget how to hit a baseball. His contact rate is going to fall, potentially significantly, so even the fall in BABIP should not result in an average that regresses too greatly.

Throw in a potential increase in power (which we’ll get to), and expecting another .300+ season should be a given.

Crawford is a career .295 hitter, but has been above .300 in four of the past five seasons. With his speed, you can expect him to once again be right around that level, since he can use his wheels to beat out some balls other wouldn’t, and therefore generate a higher BABIP. Throw in the fact that his career strikeout rate is at 15.1% and there’s nothing not to like.

While Wright has the potential to post a better average, as he has in the past, the two are close enough here to consider this a draw.

Power:
Carl Crawford is what he is in the power department. He’s shown that fantasy owners can expect between 11 and 15 home runs from him season in and season out. That’s something, giving him an advantage over other speed options for sure.

When it comes to Wright, I have to believe that last season’s major regression was a one-year thing. The CitiField argument doesn’t hold much water, because the truth of the matter is that he just wasn’t hitting the ball out of any ballpark.

You can argue that, with his stroke, he will be less likely to hit the ball out of CitiField, meaning seeing him reach 33 home runs again would be a pipe dream. That I can believe, but I just don’t buy into the belief that he’s lost his power just like that. He’s just 27-years old. How many players that age simply fall off a cliff?

The problem wasn’t the number of flyballs he hit (though they were down), he saw his HR/FB, which had been over 16% three times from 2005-2008, fall to just 6.9% in 2010. I would fully expect him to rebound, putting him back into the 22-25 range.

Runs Batted In:
Crawford isn’t supposed to be a big source of RBI, though he could be good for around 70. He’s had three seasons of 77 or more and reached 68 last season. Like I noted for the power, with a player that is an elite speed option, also being able to get this many RBI significantly boosts his value.

Wright, on the other hand, is expected to be a major bat in the Mets lineup. He had a streak of four straight 100 RBI years broken last year, but that can easily be explained by his power outage and the pathetic offense the Mets were putting on the field.

With his power returning, at least close to where it was, and the addition of Jason Bay and a healthy Jose Reyes & Carlos Beltran, you would expect Wright to again close in, if not eclipse, the 100 RBI mark.

Runs:
Both players have shown the ability to be in the vicinity of the 100 run plateau, though surprisingly Wright has had the bigger seasons in the past. Still, when Crawford has Evan Longoria, Carlos Pena and company hitting behind him you have to think he’ll be back in the vicinity once again. Plus, if he can continue to draw walks like he did last season (career best 7.8% walk rate), things could be really close here.

I’d call it a draw.

Conclusion:
With average and runs being declared a draw, what this comparison really comes down to is if Wright’s power and RBI advantage overcome the huge advantage Crawford brings in stolen bases. If Wright didn’t have as many questions surrounding his power as he does, I could easily say yes, it does.

Unfortunately, that’s not the case. Wright’s 10 home run campaign in 2009 makes you wonder, at least a little bit, just how far back he will be able to come in 2010. Additionally, Crawford is one of the few players who can carry your team in stolen bases. For those reasons, if I had the choice between the two, I’d select Crawford in the second round.

With third base still a concern, and thinner than it has been in the past, I would target Kevin Youkilis or Ryan Zimmerman in the third or fourth round, but that’s a story for another day.

What are your thoughts between Crawford and Wright? Who would you rather have and why?

Make sure to place your order for the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here.

Early ADPs have Jimmy Rollins going before Jose Reyes, but just barely. Heading into 2009 it would have been an easy decision for owners, with Reyes considered one of the top selections in all of baseball. Should the injury concerns from last season have sent him down below Rollins? Let’s take a look.

Speed:
We all know that Reyes possesses game changing speed, which is where the majority of his value sits. From 2005-2008, his lowest stolen base total was 56, picking up as many as 78 in 2007. Can he reach those levels once again?

The first question is the leg injuries that derailed his 2009 campaign. Every time it appeared like he was on his way back there was another setback, leaving fans and fantasy owners alike to grow more and more frustrated. While the early word is that he is not going to be affected in 2010, after so many starts and stops in his recovery there has to at least be a little bit of doubt.

You also cannot forget that the Mets had been trying to reign him in a bit prior to the injury problems. After attempting 99 stolen bases in 2007, the fear was that the wear and tear on his body made it impossible for him to perform down the stretch. That year he hit just .205 with five stolen bases in September as the Mets choked away a chance at the playoffs.

In 2008 he attempted 71 stolen bases, and he was better in September, though marginally. He hit .243 with 10 SB, after hitting over .300 every month from May through August.

Take those September struggles in addition to the injury concerns and you have to wonder if the Mets will once again make a conscious effort to keep Reyes planted at first base a bit more. If they do, it will certainly play a role in his potential value.

On the other hand, it is not like Rollins is a slouch on the base paths. He’s had 30 stolen bases or more every year since 2005, including three seasons over 40. He doesn’t attempt as many, but is rarely caught (in 2008 he had 47 stolen bases in 50 attempts). Last season he was caught eight times, the most since 2004. He was a perfect 10 for 10 over the last two months of the season, so I wouldn’t be concerned there.

Yes, he doesn’t run as much as Reyes, but he doesn’t need to either given the offense he has behind him (which we’ll get to later on). While he easily could reach the 35-40 stolen base plateau, the chances are, even if the reigns are put on Reyes a bit, he’s not going to match him if Reyes is healthy for the full season.

Power:
This is an easy call. Reyes isn’t much of a power hitter, with a career high of 19, now calls an extreme pitchers park home. In 147 at bats last season he managed just two home runs and double-digits is going to be considered a success for him in 2010.

In Rollins, you have a player who plays in an extreme hitters ballpark and has had 20 or more home runs in three of the last four seasons. For what he loses to Reyes in the speed department, he more than makes up for in the power department.

At this point, the two have to be considered pretty even.

Average:
Rollins struggled badly in 2009, but a lot of his problems were based on luck and not skill. He posted a BABIP of .253 last season, with most of the struggles coming in the first half (.229).

After the All-Star Break he was the same type of player he always is, hitting .272. That’s the thing, Rollins never really posts overly impressive averages. From 2004 through 2008 he had averages of .289, .290, .277, .296 and .277. It’s not that he’s a big-time strikeout guy either, it’s just that he’s never been able to parlay his speed into above average BABIP. Maybe it’s the fact that he tries to hit too many home runs or the ballpark he plays in, but at this point it’s a simple fact.

Reyes has never been much better. He’s a career .286 hitter and after hitting .300 in 2006 has posted marks of .280, .297 and .279. Will the huge field he plays in allow him to hit for a higher average?

He hit .329 in 85 at bats at home last season, but that is an awfully small sample size. It is possible for it to continue and if what we saw from David Wright in 2009 is any indication, it almost should be expected. Reyes is going to get the nod here, but really just badly.

Runs:
This is a draw, plain and simple. While Rollins has a better offense behind him, Reyes’ ability to hit for extra base hits, as well as turn his singles into doubles or triples, evens the playing field. Plus, while it’s easy to look at Ryan Howard and Chase Utley as two of the best, it’s not like David Wright and Carlos Beltran are slouches. Both players have proven that they can score a ton of runs and that should continue in 2010.

RBI:
More power generally is going to lead to more RBI. Rollins has had a year of 90, as well as 83 and 77. Reyes, meanwhile, drove in 81 back in 2006 but has proven to be more of a 60ish type guy. The extra home run power is going to mean a few extra RBI for Rollins.

Conclusion:
As you can tell, these two are extremely close, almost even, justifying how close their ADPs are thus far. While there are concerns over Reyes ability to steal bases in 2010, his potential there is the sole reason I would select him first. Outside of maybe Jacoby Ellsbury, how many players have the potential to put up numbers similar to that of Reyes? The answer, quite possibly, is no one.

While I view Rollins as a great fallback option, if I have a selection of the two, it’s going to be Reyes every time.

What about you? Which of these two would you rather have and why?

For more Fantasy Info visit me at rotoprofessor.com.

Last week Topps released its All-Star Rookie team for 2009 and while there were some justified selections and some questionable ones, the player that has the most intrigue for me is the Mets’ Omir Santos. He beat out phenom Matt Wieters, who most thought would be in contention to take home the Rookie of the Year award in the American League.

Did Santos’ season really justify the award? First let’s take a look at his statistics:

281 At Bats
.260 Batting Average (73 Hits)
7 Home Runs
40 RBI
28 Runs
0 Stolen Bases
.296 On Base Percentage
.391 Slugging Percentage
.287 Batting Average on Balls in Play

I know Wieters did not come close to expectations, but Santos’ performance is far from tantalizing. While he had his moments early in the season delivering some big hits for a Mets team that was desperate to grasp onto anything, Santos’ second half left little to be desired.

He hit just .250 with 3 HR and 16 RBI over 128 AB, exposing him a bit for what he truly is, a 28-year old career minor leaguer. While people want to get excited when someone like him shows signs of success, having held on for so long, there is a reason he didn’t get his first taste of the big leagues until 2008, his eighth year of professional baseball (he was drafted in the 21st round of the 2001 draft by the New York Yankees).

We are talking about a player who was a career .258 hitter over 2,229 minor league at bats, hitting just 32 HR. In fact, he only had two seasons where he surpassed the total he hit last season: he hit eight between two levels of Single-A in ‘02 and 10 at Double-A in ‘05.

It would just make no sense for the Mets to look for a catcher to platoon with that type of performance. Exactly what do they think they are going to get? After all these years do they expect him to suddenly figure things out? Do they think he’s going to become a slugger? Or even someone who can post a decent average?

Santos is none of those things, and by now we all need to realize that. What he showed in the second half is the type of production he has been showing since he was an unheralded draft choice many moons ago.

Does keeping him around in order to be the second catcher make sense? Absolutely, but if the Mets enter 2010 with expectations of him making any type of impact at the plate they are making a major miscalculation.

As far as fantasy owners are concerned, even those in two-catcher formats should be keeping their distance. He just doesn’t have the potential to be of much value to anyone, even if he is splitting time and getting a fair share of at bats.

What do you think? Am I being too harsh on Santos? Do you think he could contribute offensively for the Mets in 2010?

For more Fantasy Info visit me at rotoprofessor.com.

Johan Santana had long been considered the best pitcher in baseball.  From 2004-2008 there wasn’t a pitcher who could touch him, posting some remarkable numbers, especially when you consider that he called the AL home up until 2008:

• Struck out 200 or more batters every season
• Had a sub-3.00 ERA in four out of five seasons (the other year saw him at 3.33)
• Posted three WHIPs of 1.00 and better (and the other two season’s saw him post marks of 1.07 and 1.15)
• Won 15 games or more every season, including years of 19 and 20

How many pitchers can boast that type of consistent success?

His 2009 season looked to be off to a similar start, going 7-2 with a 1.77 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 11.73 K/9 over 66 innings (10 starts) over the season’s first two months.  Then, the wheels seemed to falloff.

He struggled in June, posting a 6.19 ERA, before recovering in July (1.82) and August (3.94).  While the ERAs were still respectable, the strikeouts in those two months were down significantly (5.90) and while the WHIP was still good (1.15), he was allowing more base runners than he had been.

So, that leads us to ask, just what should we expect from Santana in 2010?

The injury that ended his season prematurely was to his elbow, an immediate red flag.  Despite Santana’s claims that he would have been able to complete the season had the Mets been in contention, it still has to make you wonder.  The Mets and Santana can claim that he will be ready for Spring Training, but until he takes the mound and proves that he is the same pitcher that he used to be there will be significant questions.

When it comes to fantasy owners, just how do you rank him?  Clearly, he has been unearthed from the top spot (now belonging to Tim Lincecum).  In fact, in our early Top 35 Fantasy Starting Pitchers (click here to view), he came in at #6, behind Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia.

Many believe that drafting starting pitchers early on is a mistake to begin with, feeling that you can find pitchers later on.  While that strategy is sound, I am not against taking someone early on if it makes sense.  If I am picking late in the second round and Tim Lincecum is sitting there, staring me in the face, I’m not going to be able to turn him down.  He’s a lights out starting pitcher, almost a guarantee to post a sub-3.00 ERA and 250 Ks in a season.  That’s just not something that you will “find” in the later rounds.

When it comes to Santana, at this point, you just don’t know what you are going to get so to gamble on him in the early rounds is an extreme risk.  While he could return to his Cy Young ways, especially in the confines of CitiField, how do we know for sure that he is completely over his injury?

That’s not to say that I think he’s a bad risk, because he’s not.  I truly believe that he’s going to regain his form and be a dominant starting pitcher, but in the first four and a half rounds on draft day, it is going to be extremely difficult to pull the trigger.

If he’s still sitting on the board at that point, however, it would really depend on how the first few rounds went to determine if I’d select him.  It certainly would be a very realistic possibility.

How about you?  Will you be targeting Santana on draft day?  How high are you willing to take him?

For more Fantasy Info visit me at rotoprofessor.com.

It’s easy to sit and write an article saying that the Mets should sign Jason Bay, trade for Adrian Gonzalez and Roy Halladay and who knows what else. To examine the Mets offseason like they are working without the constrictions of a budget would be a mistake. They aren’t the Yankees.

Given the number of holes they have, the Mets are going to need to be smart in order to not only fill them all, but to do so in a manner that improves the ball club. I tried to keep my budget in the $35-40 million range, which is what I’ve seen reported that the Mets will have, but did come off slightly above that. With ownership saying that Omar Minaya will have whatever funds necessary to get the job done, then I can certainly see the slight increase being acceptable.

With that said, let’s take a look at what I would do if I were in the driver’s seat:

1. Trade Luis Castillo to the Tigers for Nate Robertson

Honestly, you can fill in the blank for who the Mets take back for Castillo, but the most important thing is that he is no longer on the roster. With 2 years and $12 million left on his contract, you have to think that someone would be willing to swallow that contract to rid themselves of an equally bad contract.

Why the Tigers? First of all, their incumbent second baseman, Placido Polanco, is a free agent and chances are the Tigers aren’t going to bring him back due to the presence of prospect Scott Sizemore. Unfortunately for the Tigers, Sizemore was injured in the AFL and while they are saying he should be ready for Spring Training, you never really know. An insurance policy is certainly needed

That is something Castillo could provide, while also helping the Tigers alleviate some of their own budget-crunch. At $10 million in 2010, this swap actually opens up $4 million for the Tigers to work with this season, something they desperately need to help plug some of their other holes.

Granted, Robertson will be an extremely overpaid long reliever/spot starter for the Mets, but it’s the price that needs to be paid in order to fully realize my offseason plans.

2. Sign Chone Figgins via free agency

There are a few options available, so this is the order that I would target them:

1. Chone Figgins
2. Mark DeRosa
3. Orlando Hudson

I’m going to focus on Figgins, because I think he is the perfect type of player to build a line-up with in CitiField. Could you imagine having Reyes/Figgins hitting 1-2 at the top of the line-up? The Mets would be one of the biggest pains to play against with that combo, reminiscent of the Marlins Juan Pierre/Castillo combination.

I also think that rumors of Figgins looking for a 5 year, $50 million contract are probably slightly overblown. He’ll be 32-years old by Opening Day, and I don’t see most teams looking to be paying a 36-year old $10 million, especially when a lot of his value comes from his legs.

I do not have a problem giving him slightly more money a year, however, in order to get him to accept a 3-4 year deal, as well as to play 2B. It’ll likely cost between $8-10 million to get him signed, so I hope the Mets go the extra mile (and use the Francisco Rodriguez connection) to get him signed.

As much as I want to dream about the Reyes/Figgins pairing, what if Reyes’ leg injury prohibits him from being the player that he once was? What if he can’t be that dynamic force at the top of the line-up? With Figgins, you have the replacement in house already. People say that you can’t replace what Reyes does, but with Figgins you come reasonably close.

3. Trade a low-level prospect for Kelly Shoppach

I don’t want any of the garbage that is flooding the free agent market. The only player who is mildly interesting is Bengie Molina, but the chances of him signing a 1-year deal are minimal and at 35-years old (he turns 36 in July) I don’t want to be giving him any significant type of contract.

Shoppach, meanwhile, is a non-tender candidate who the Indians want to dump. They are one of the few teams with excessive catching depth and at $2 million, they are looking to allocate that money elsewhere.

He is a potentially good bat, as he’s hit 33 home runs in 623 AB over the past two seasons. Granted, the average may not be stellar, but how many catchers provide a high-level average?

Defensively, he is pretty solid as well. Remember, Victor Martinez missed a huge chunk of the 2008 season so it was Shoppach catching Cliff Lee during his Cy Young campaign (22-3, 2.54 ERA).

I’m not sold on Omir Santos maintaining his shocking 2009 season and we all know Josh Thole needs more seasoning in the minor leagues. Shoppach has never been given the chance to play everyday, but he appears to have the bat to do so. Otherwise, you use him in a platoon. Either way, he’s the perfect fit for the Mets, so I would go out and get him before the Indians cut him and allow the rest of baseball free range on him.

4. Sign Erik Bedard via free agency

I’m penciling him for a 1-year, $5 million contract with a ton of incentives. It’s a deal that would make sense for both sides. The Mets need a potential #2 starting pitcher and Bedard needs a chance to rebuild his value after struggling with injuries the past two seasons. We’ve seen time and time again, if you want to rebuild some value, you jump to the NL.

Is he a risk? Absolutely, but the money just isn’t going to be in the budget to get a high-level guarantee considering the other holes the team has. Bedard has proven that if healthy, he is almost a lock to be a Cy Young candidate, so he makes the most sense from the risk/reward standpoint.

Fallback options here would be Rich Harden, Brett Myers or Ben Sheets.

5. Sign Rich Hill to a minor league contract

Exactly where is the downside? He’s proven he could be effective when he has his control, so I would fully support the Mets making the low-risk move. If he can put things together, he could be a #3 starter, especially as a flyball pitcher calling a pitcher’s park home.

If he fails? You release him at no real loss.

6. Sign Jason Marquis via free agency

The Mets have enough risks already, don’t they? While the roster is already riddled with them (as well as my proposal to add two more), you need to add someone that you can depend on. I considered others, like John Garland, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf, but I think Marquis is the best option that fits into the budget.

He’s a groundball pitcher who has struggled with the longball a bit in the past, something that would be limited in CitiField. Is he a spectacular option? Of course not, but he can be penciled in for at least 190 innings and quite possibly with an ERA in the 3.75-4.10 range.

Of the options I considered, I also think he is the one who is probable signable in the $5-6 million a year range, so that’s the direction we’ll go here (if they can find the money to sign Randy Wolf along with the other moves, he would be my top choice).

7. Sign Marlon Byrd via free agency

This may not be the popular pick, but he fits the Mets needs. While he’s not the prototypical #5 hitter, he spent 287 AB hitting fourth and fifth for a Texas Rangers team that was one of the best offenses in the game.

He had 65 extra base hits last season, 43 of which were doubles. That certainly would play well in the confines of CitiField. He’s not slow and would do a good job lengthening the Mets line-up.

He also is a solid defensive outfielder, exactly what the Mets need. Is he a Gold Glover? No, but with Carlos Beltran & Jeff Francoeur, he’s a perfect fit.

Coming off a career season where he made just over $3 million, the 32-year old could easily sign 3 year, $21 million contract (if not a little bit more). Throw in some incentive bonuses and it’s a perfect match.

8. Trade Angel Pagan, Reese Havens & Daniel Murphy to the Toronto Blue Jays for Lyle Overbay, David Purcey & Jeremy Accardo (or some other relief pitcher like Brian Tallet)

This is the type of trade where Omar Minaya has done well with in the past. Remember, both John Maine and Oliver Perez were seen as “throw-ins” when they were originally acquired, yet they became important cogs in the rotation (at least for a little while). Purcey has the same type of upside and would give the team tremendous depth.

While Overbay may not be the most popular choice, he is a solid bat and a good glove, the things the Mets really need at the position. He could be the same type of player as John Olerud was for the team, another former Blue Jay that they imported. His contract also expires after the 2010 season, opening up the position for Ike Davis, if he is ready to take it.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Let’s look at how things would stand if the Mets followed my plan:

Line-up:
Reyes, SS
Figgins, 2B
Wright, 3B
Beltran, CF
Byrd, RF
Overbay, 1B
Francoeur, LF
Shoppach, C

Rotation Options:
Johan Santana
Erik Bedard
Jason Marquis
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Oliver Perez
David Purcey
Rich Hill
Jon Niese

I’ll call this the Boston Plan, taking low-risk gambles on a group of pitchers and hoping that a few of them pan out. With the group that they have here, I would be comfortable. They’d have the depth to handle injuries and could move someone like Maine to the bullpen if need be.

The offense may not look spectacular, but you have a line-up that is solid from 1 through 8, as well as some pop at every spot after the top two. You also have a much stronger defensive team, which is exactly what the Mets should be looking to build.

Obviously, there are a few other moves that need to be made. They need to add a relief pitcher or two (Chad Bradford would be a good fit) and some solid bench options (how about Rocco Baldelli). Those are just as important as the rest of the moves I’ve mentioned, but they are interchangeable. You never know which relief pitcher is going to emerge. There are other bench options that are available.

No, it’s not going to be the most popular plan, because it lacks the big splash many want to see the Mets make, but that is not necessarily needed. What they need to do is be smart, fill all of their holes and add plenty of depth. If they can do that, they should once again be competitive in the NL East.

What do you think of this? What moves would you make? Which do you think are bad ideas?

For more Fantasy Info visit me at rotoprofessor.com.

Sometimes it is tough to be a Mets fan, isn’t it? You sit and you watch other teams, both big market and small, call up player after player from their minor league system who step foot on a major league diamond and instantly make an impact. Some of these players they had a chance to draft like Jered Weaver & Phil Hughes in 2004 (when the Mets selected Phil Humber at #3). Others they never had the opportunity, due to forfeiting their first round draft pick because of signing a Type A free agent.

If it is poor prowess (or lack of dedication and finances) in the draft or just simply trading away any player with a reasonable opportunity to produce, when you see a viable Mets prospect reach the major leagues fans just drool at their potential. We not only want to see him on the roster, but we want to instantly hand him a starting job, especially when there is a whole to fill.

Enter Josh Thole, who made the jump from Double-A last season to hit .321 over 53 AB in September. That came after hitting .328 with 1 HR and 46 RBI over 384 AB in the minor leagues.

His hot hitting has continued this winter in the Venezuelan League, going 21-54, good for a .389 average, while striking out just five times.

The 2005 thirteenth round draft choice certainly has proven that he can hit, though a few of the numbers can be a little deceiving. He is only a .292 career minor league hitter, with last season’s average being buoyed by a .359 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP).

Is that something that is maintainable? Probably not, though he does put the ball in play an awful lot. For his minor league career he struck out just 165 times in 1,321 at bats, a strikeout rate of 12.49%. At Double-A last season, his mark was actually better at 8.89% and in the major leagues he was at 9.4%.

In the vast expanses of CitiField, putting the ball in play is paramount. There are a lot of holes to be found, so seeing him continue to post solid averages, even if it is lower than last season’s mark, should be expected (at this point I’d pencil him in for about a .285 average due to a decrease in luck and a few more strikeouts).

The power, however, is nonexistent to this point. He has hit just eight career minor league home runs, with his high at just five at High-A Ball in 2008. In fact, he hasn’t even shown the potential to hit for more power, with a career slugging percentage at .375.

He’s 23-years old, so you would expect him to gain some more power, but maybe not. You would’ve at least liked to see him reach 30 doubles at any level in the minor leagues (last season he did have 31, 29 at Double-A and 2 in the Major Leagues).

At this point, you have to consider him a singles hitter, something that is tough to stomach when you aren’t a speedy little outfielder (like Brett Butler in his hey day). While he stole eight bases last season, showing he has more speed than most catchers, there’s nothing elite about it.

In order to carry a catcher like that, you need to either be able to hit him second (thanks to his propensity to make contact) or bury him in the eighth hole because you have such a deep line-up. The presence of Luis Castillo makes that virtually impossible for the time being.

For the Mets to use him in their line-up would seemingly make the weak weaker, even if they were to add a Jason Bay or Matt Holliday in LF. This is a team that lacked pop last season, so carrying Castillo, Thole and the pitcher, whose spot in the line-up would likely carry less than five home runs total and 60 RBI, would be a mistake.

Unless the Mets completely revamp their line-up, even with a potential .280+ average, Thole just doesn’t fully answer their needs, at least not currently. He would be best to gain more experience in Triple-A, maybe learn how to pull the ball a little bit more (or at least find the gaps).

He has potential, but the Mets needs just don’t fit his skills. Obviously, unless the Mets import a catcher for the season, they will be forced to pair Thole with Omir Santos from the outset. My guess, they either trade for or sign a one-year stopgap, giving Thole more time to develop (and hopefully hit for a little more power), putting him a year away from making a fantasy impact.

What are your thoughts? Will the Mets turn the keys over to him in 2010 or will they let him mature more before handing him the job?

For more Fantasy Info visit me at rotoprofessor.com

Before we get started, I wanted to take a moment to introduce myself.  My name is Eric Stashin and I run www.rotoprofessor.com, a fantasy baseball website that has been around since January 2007.  We cover all of baseball and I hope to bring some of that here to all of you.  On top of that, I have the misery (I think we all feel that way right now) of being a life long Mets fan.  I look forward to providing some of that insight to all of you here!

We all know the Mets have countless holes to fill. For a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball, it seems unfathomable that they would need so much help. Exactly where are they spending their money?

As you ponder that question, you also must consider how the Mets will fill their many voids. One such void is at first base, with the 37-year old Carlos Delgado highly unlikely to return and Daniel Murphy proving last season that he just does not have the bat to be utilized as a full-time corner infielder. With a relatively weak free agent market, you have to wonder if the team will look within to fill the void. Lucky for them, their top hitting prospect, Ike Davis, is a first baseman.

Drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft (18th overall), Davis has quickly proven that he was more than a low-risk, signability selection. Splitting time between Single and Double-A in 2009, he hit .298 with 20 HR and 71 RBI in 429 AB in 2009. Being sent to the Arizona Fall League to gain more experience, he has made a lasting impression in just two games going 5-9 with 1 HR, 8 RBI and 2 R.

Thus far he’s struck out just once, but it clearly is a minimal sample size. As we dig into his minor league numbers since being drafted, we notice that his ability to make contact is becoming a concern:

• Low Single-A (215 AB) – 20.0%
• High Single-A (222 AB) – 23.4%
• Double-A (207 AB) – 29.0%

With that knowledge, you have to question his ability to hit for a consistently high average. While he hit .309 during his stay at Double-A, it came courtesy of a .381 BABIP. Obviously it is unlikely that he can continue at that type of pace and it will likely be exposed further as he moves up the ranks.

With an average that seems destined to crash and burn, you have to wonder if he will be able to produce enough power to justify his usage. His flyball rate, which was a lowly 34.1% in 2008, rose to a solid 42.8% in 2009. That number would allow him to potentially contribute enough. Examples of those who did it in the major leagues this year:

• Justin Morneau – 42.9% (30 HR)
• Evan Longoria – 41.8% (33 HR)
• Jason Kubel – 41.6% (28 HR)

As he continues to mature, if he can maintain his current flyball rate it would not be out of the question to see him reach the 30 HR plateau. Of course, playing in CitiField may hinder that slightly, but the potential is there.

The problem is, would the power be able to overcome an average that is more likely to be at .250 as opposed to .290? He’s not likely to suddenly become Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn, launching moon shots and routinely topping 40 HR.

The fact is, no matter what he does in the AFL, it is nearly impossible for him to answer the one, large question. Will he be able to consistently put bat to ball in the major leagues? Until we can answer that, the idea of the Mets turning the 1B job over to him is an alarming one, especially without some sort of contingency plan. That’s how the Mets problems grew in 2009 and you need to learn from your mistakes.

The team’s best bet would be to sign a placeholder for 2010, someone who they could easily slide to the bench if Davis tears up Triple-A, proving that he can rake. At the same time, you want someone that could do the job for the entire season, in case Davis struggles. Could someone like Russell Branyon or Adam LaRoche fit into the Mets plans?

At this point, that’s the course I would take. I’d expect him to open the season in Triple-A, likely staying there until the All-Star Break, at the earliest. With the potential that he doesn’t make an impact this season, I’d consider him a low-end option outside of the deepest of keeper leagues, one that should be left on the waiver wire. Obviously, the Mets plans for Davis could change that, but at this point that’s where we are.

What are your thoughts? Could Davis be a usable fantasy option? If you were the Mets, how would you advance him in 2010?

For more Fantasy Info visit me at rotoprofessor.com

Well now that it is in almost everyone’s minds that this season is over, I would like to present a question.

 Would a smaller Citi Field be a better Citi Field?

 Would it benefit or hurt the Mets to make the field smaller for next season by bringing in the outfield fence or even making it a level fence. I would like to say it would definitely be a benefit but honestly I am not so sure that it would be. Would it help our offense? That is a definite YES, because many of our long hard hits have ended up just being long fly outs. How many more opposite field home runs would Employee #5 have? Not only would Wright have more but so would Sheffield, Tatis, Beltran (when he was healthy) and even Pagan.

 The only problem then would fall on the pitching staff. Would they be able to keep people in the yard with a smaller field? That is the 6 Million dollar question people, and part of me thinks that they might not be able to do it. The only way I would definitely be on board is if in the off season the Mets pick up a great # 2 and above average # 3 starters.

 Below are the dimensions for the teams that are in our division.

The numbers above don’t seem to take into account the height of the fences either because, although Turner Field looks almost similar to Citi field their fence does not make the various lifts and drops that Citi Field does.

With the offensive woes the Mets had all season it would make some sense to make the move. Also to consider, is the fact that it does not look like the Wilpons will be big spenders this offseason even with millions saved on Wags and Delgado. Translation: NO BIG BATS COMING!

I know its a new park and they just spent a lot of money in making Citi Field, but if it means more wins then you WILL fill more seats and with the additional space could even squeeze in a few extra seats. Also to consider is the fact that a winning team generates more revenue in merchandising (can you hear the Cha Ching now Wilpons). Loses are a little easier to handle as well when your team is showing some real power. Yankee stadium was the hot topic earlier in the season about how it was a launching pad but you don’t hear much talks about that anymore and all you really hear now is how the Yanks are playing some great baseball. Finally, it would definitely change the way teams would look and pitch to the Mets as well. The threat of giving up a homerun does factor into the way a game is played and maybe that could transfer into more W’s as well.