Mets Merized Online

After the 2007 season, the Mets faithful were thrilled by the acquisition of ace Johan Santana.  Despite only poor team performances since his acquisition, Johan’s contributions to the team have been unending and undeniably huge, highlighted by his memorable effort on the 2nd-to-last-day of the 2008 season and the last game at Shea Stadium that I choose to remember.  Last season, the Mets reeled in K-Rod who, while he’s had his moments of faltering, has solidified the closer position for the Mets.  This offseason, the Mets will be looking to rebound from one of the most disappointing seasons (not ends to a season) in years, and likely on a limited budget, but let’s stop focusing on #1 this year.  Instead, let’s start in the 2-spot.

The 2-spot as in the #2 pitcher, the Set Up man, and the 2-spot in the batting order.  Before you rip my head off about worrying about the second spot in the order, trust me when I say I’ll explain later, and let’s start with the pitching.

We know the Mets won’t have Top Dollar to spend this offseason, so let’s be hopefully-realistic.  Brandon Webb announced on Wednesday (Rotowire.com) that he would not accept an incentive-laden deal from Arizona, and would test free agency if his option is not picked up.  Now, I said hopefully-realistic, so Brandon Webb would appear out, right?  Not necessarily.  His option that he wants the D-Backs to pick up is worth $8.5 million.  That doesn’t mean we’d get him at $8.5 million, but it does make the day brighter.  Would I want Brandon Webb pitching behind Johan in the Mets rotation next season and beyond, even WITH the injury this year?  Absolutely.  Do I think the Mets could sign him considering their likely budget?  That remains to be seen (and I wouldn’t think the Wilpons would be willing to sign his paycheck, too, next year), but it brings up two interesting scenarios involving two free agent starting pitchers who missed the 2009 season.  Yes, I’m talking about Ben Sheets.

I know, I know, he’s a risk, but it is high-risk, high-reward.  Playing it safe doesn’t get you anywhere but the golf course in October.  I’m not suggesting throwing cash after either of them, I’m suggesting (if I can play GM for a moment) making them bid against each other.  Now, obviously, Webb is worth more than Sheets, but they are both in similar situations.  In 2008, Sheets had the better ERA (3.03 to 3.30), and Webb edged Sheets in K/9 (7.3-7.2) and WHIP (1.20-1.24).  As injury-prone as he is, Sheets has only pitched under 140 innings in a season once before 2009 and had NEVER pitched fewer than 100 in his career…not Webb’s 220 IP/year average (before 2009), but not as bad as you’d think.  I say put them in a bidding war of sorts, but sign Sheets to the contract and save the money for other spots.

Now let’s get to the Pen.  We moved Billy Wagner to Boston, so any hopes and dreams of him taking the role of setup man in 2010 are out the window.  JJ Putz was damaged goods when we got him, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid that he’s a total bust…if we can keep him.  After missing significant time, and with JJ no longer being a premier closer or even setup option, a one-year deal to keep him on again so he can try out for a closer’s job in 2011 may not be too far-fetched.  Plus, with guys like Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde likely on the market, he wouldn’t even have the benefit of being the best option of a weak field.  I’m not suggesting the Mets pick up the option, but try to negotiate a different deal that has some incentives.  Offer him $3 million and $3 million more in incentives ($1 million for ERA, $1 million for WHIP, and $1 million for the Playoffs, all with a minimum amount of IP).  He won’t make $5 million in this free agent market (we’d pay him the other $1 million in a buyout), and if he has another bad/injury-plagued season, we pay him only $2 million extra for it.

Now for the 2-spot in the order.  This is where we make the money back.  By keeping Angel Pagan in the 2-spot (behind a hopefully-healthy Jose) and in LF and deciding on it sooner rather than later, it allows us to do a few more things.  First, we can build his confidence and work with him on the things that he needs to work on (not going down that road right now).  Also, Dan Murphy gets another season (or 2) of experience in the Minors, and, most importantly, we save the money by not needing a new left fielder to sign Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock, Adam LaRoche, or another 1st Baseman.  On the flipside, keeping Murphy at first base and replacing Pagan with a slugger in LF bat takes that extra speed option out of the picture.  As much as I like Murphy, the team is better off signing a first baseman and keeping Pagan in the lineup rather than vice versa.

I do agree with Joe that Pagan needs work on the fundamentals and everything else, but let’s get hopefully-realistic…  We will not be able to afford to sign both a LF and 1B replacement this offseason, so it’s one or the other.  Murphy’s looked somewhat sharp at 1B at times, but let’s not say that he’s suddenly a Gold Glover.  And, no, Angel Pagan has not been perfect either, but as Joe pointed out, blunders aside, he’s been VERY good at the dish, and he, too, has had his moments of defensive glory.  One of these guys (at least) will be in the Mets 2010 Opening Day lineup plans, and I feel more comfortable with Pagan than with Murphy at this point.

Now for everyone’s favorite part: the math.  The Mets, in just Billy Wagner, Brian Schneider, and Carlos Delgado’s salaries, cut $27.4 million dollars from the books.  Let’s say the Wilpons decide to cut $7.4 million from the budget (for ease of numbers’ sake…it’s about 5% of the total 2009 salary).  That leaves us $20 million.  Sheets and Putz total to around $10 million ($7 million for Sheets seems reasonable to me considering his injury history and lack of Scott Boras as an agent), and our first base solution could come for about $6-8 million, leaving some more money for a rainy day, like November 14, 2139 (when Uncle Bernie is released from prison).  Jokes aside, adding these 2 players (and keeping JJ) for 2010 would greatly improve our team.  Just as a projection (assuming no other signings):

Lineup:
SS-Reyes
LF-Pagan
3B-Wright
CF-Beltran
1B-Johnson/Blalock
RF-Francoeur
C-Santos/Thole
2B-Castillo (only because I prefer placing speed and contact ability in the 8-hole instead of in the 7-hole)

Rotation:
Santana
Sheets
Pelfrey
Maine
Perez/Niese

Bullpen (Big 3):
F. Rodriguez
Putz
Feliciano

I’m not saying this offseason is as easy as 1-2-3 (SP-1B-RP) to go from 2009’s team to a pennant-contender, but it’s certainly a jump-start in the right direction and an instant and vast improvement.  There are other holes to fill (like the one between the ears of certain people within the Mets organization), but you’ve got to start somewhere, so I say start by looking out for #2.

At the risk of being called “Captain Obvious” and getting comments of “Gee, ya think?”, I wanted to point out that the Mets are out of the Playoff hunt, and the only thing meaningful about the end of the 2009 Mets season will be playing time for the prospects and maybe to play spoiler.

Now that that’s been established and is out of the way: Why is David Wright in Tuesday’s lineup?  Why, in fact, has he not been shut down for the year?  

I’m glad to see (as Phil Hoops pointed out) that he’s wearing the new batting helmet, and, don’t get me wrong, I love that David wants to play; his determination and competitive nature is something that we need to put into pills and force down the throats of his teammates (and I also will enjoy having him for my Playoff run in Fantasy Baseball this year), but why in the world would the New York Mets risk their prize possession for a year like this one?  

Now, I realize that they need money and are desparately trying to fill Citi Field with a sub-.500 club, but as any half-decent financial advisor will tell you, sacrificing a little now will help you tremendously in the long term.  Getting through these tougher times without resorting to blatantly (dare I say) stupid moves is the key to long-term success. (DISCLAIMER: I am not a certified financial advisor, nor do I intend to come across as one, and refuse any responsibility for financial or other decisions made based on my comments).  From the Wilpons’ perspective, trading a month’s worth of fans who’s deciding factor on showing up was David Wright being in the lineup for the ticket sales you’ll get by having a fully-healthy David Wright in 2010 should be a trade worth making every time.

There is simply no reason that David should be playing at Citi Field again this year.  If he’s feeling better, fantastic, rest up for 2010.  At the very most, let him rehab in St. Lucie for the rest of the year, but do not subject him to further exacerbating the injury by letting/making him play for the big club for the rest of the year.  Let me be the first to coin the phrase “metsmanaged”, meaning “greatly mishandling a baseball situation”.  So, this is just another incident that has been metsmanaged by the Wilpons, Omar Minaya, and Jerry Manuel to add to an ever-growing list, and rather than hoping for the win tonight and for the rest of the season, I’m instead resorting to praying that this is the one time that the Mets will get lucky when it comes to dealing with an injured player in 2009.

As I’ve been watching our beloved Mets this season, going through cases of Pepto-Bismol and Alka-Seltzer, I’ve still kept an interest in seeing the team win, no matter how many games out of first we’ve been.  Recently, it’s gotten much tougher to get genuinely excited over wins, though having them spaced so far apart does help increase the excitement when we get one.  But, for the first time in a few years, I have a different reason to look forward to late-season baseball for our New York Mets.  It’s not with the hopes of playing in the Postseason, or even to spoil the Postseason for other teams, and it’s not to see the talent that hope to grace Citi Field in 3-4 years; it’s for next year.
 
For many of the lower-tiered teams, the end of the season represents a time to see what’s cooking in AAA and AA to see what the future holds.  With all of our injuries, we’ve already seen many of those players come and go this year, from prized prospect Fernando Martinez to Jon Niese and Nick Evans.  So, while in a similar position in the standings to those teams looking for their diamonds from the Minors to shine through, we’re instead looking for holes.  Not because of our depleted Minor League system, but because we need to look at what holes actually need to be filled for 2010.

We can all agree that the Mets are set at a few positions for next year: Shortstop, Third Base, Center Field, the Top Spot in the Rotation, and the Closer’s role.  What the final two months brings the Mets is the opportunity to see what the other positions are: holes that need to be filled, or spots that will do just fine.  Daniel Murphy has been playing First Base for a few months now, and while his bat has been in an extended hibernation for this year, his defensive abilities and aggressiveness have shown through.  Many Mets fans are clamoring for a free agent signing to come to Queens next year to boot him from his spot, and these final months of the season represent his chance to prove he belongs.

We know Castillo’s not going to be replaced unless we find someone to eat his contract, but he has a chance to continue to prove his worth to Met fans and quiet us from begging for his removal like we did last year.  He’s been on fire over the last little while, and should he continue that through the end of the season, I’m sure we’ll all be more comfortable with the future of our Second Baseman.

Left Field is a bit of a wild card.  Angel Pagan has looked electrifying at times, and downright disastrous at others.  His baserunning blunders have left us agape, as have some of the routes he’s taken to fly balls.  But his abilities and sometimes-clutch performances could have him playing leftfield full-time for the Mets in 2010.  His biggest issue since the Mets acquired him from the Cubbies has been staying healthy, and while a two-month stint in the Majors with no issues isn’t a sign that he’s past the bug, it certainly couldn’t hurt.  Interestingly enough, I feel that Angel being accepted as our everyday Left Fielder relies more heavily on our Right Fielder than it does on his play, and that’s the reason that I didn’t put Right Field in as a “set” position above.

Jeff “Frenchy” Francoeur has looked nearly like his old self in a Mets uni, and no one seems happier with Frenchy donning the Orange and Blue than he is.  What we are looking for from Francoeur in these last weeks of the season is whether he can return to his 2006 form (kinda strange, no?) and show a homerun swing.  In 2006, Francoeur hit 29 home runs, and while it’s not the 38 that Delgado hit in 2006 and in 2008, it would certainly make the Mets more of a deep-ball threat if Frenchy can somewhat replace Delgado on the power end next year.  If he does (and with 5 HRs in 28 games as a Met entering today — a pace of 29 HRs per 162 games — he’s well on his way), the Mets may not need to fill that power gap in the lineup by replacing Angel Pagan in LF.

Which brings me to Catcher (you’ll see the connection in a second).  Our catcher’s spot has not seemed fantastic, but somehow it has been.  While he may not be The Answer, Omir Santos has filled in very nicely behind the plate this year, and our catcher’s spot as a whole has been near the top of the Majors in RBI this year.  However, our current tandem of Schneider and Santos have combined for just 9 HRs this year, which would qualify as the 14th-most amongst ML catchers if they counted as 1 person.  However, two of the catchers near the top of that list could be available in the free agent market next year.  31-year-old Victor Martinez and his 17 HRs will hit the market if the Red Sox decline an option worth nearly $8MM, and 31-year-old Miguel Olivo and his 16 HRs will hit the market if his mutual $3.25MM option is not picked up by the Royals or if he chooses to leave KC.  What Santos needs to do (more-so than Schneider, who is a free agent after this year) is prove that we need him more than we need Angel Pagan in the field and in the lineup.  The odds of us going after a big-money free agent hitter may not be all that great with the Coupons running the gig, but if we did, it may come down to a Catcher or a Left Fielder.  Omir does not have the greatest bat, and his 44 home runs career at every level combined prove that, but he can prove his worth calling games and defensively.

Now we come to the rotation.  We know Johan’s a lock at #1, so the next little while is all about Big Pelf and Ollie Ollie Auch Sind Frei can show, more-so with Ollie.  Right now, we have a bona-fide #1, and a bunch of #3/4 pitchers.  Right now, our rotation for next year looks like it could be Johan, Pelfrey, Ollie, Maine, and Jon Niese, assuming Mainer manages to regain his arm strength.  However, none of the bottom 4 of that rotation has shown the abilities to pitch in the 2-slot.  With Maine and Niese both hurt, it’s up for grabs between Perez and Pelfrey.  We need to see one of them step it up consistently through the end of the season to prove their worth as a #2, or we will know what hole needs to be filled first.

And finally the bullpen.  While a weak spot in recent years and not the unbelievable force that many of us felt it would be this season, what we should be focused on is the performance and the comebacks of Billy Wagner and J.J. Putz.  This last section of the season is their chance to prove that they are worth the money to set up Frankie Rodriguez in 2010 should they choose to accept that role for another year.  It’s also a chance for Bobby Parnell (should he be rightfully returned to the bullpen) to show if he has what it takes to setup Frankie and free up the money to fill other holes.  It’s also a chance for some other guys to prove that they can join Pedro Feliciano as middle- and long-relief pitchers next year and don’t need to be replaced.

While many are on “Minaya & Manuel Watch” for the rest of the year to see if they deserve to return in 2010, I’m more interested in seeing how the players treat the end of a disappointing season.  That’s why I’ll be watching every chance I get, 1st place or last, for the rest of 2009, because our performance may not matter, but it certainly counts.

This isn’t a Mets-related story, but I think it’s worth mentioning. After attempting to make a comeback to the Bigs and suffering major setbacks in the Minor Leagues, the San Diego Padres will release Mark Prior at some point this weekend, according to MLB.com. He never played for the Mets, but he was one of the most promising and feared pitchers in the Bigs when healthy with the Cubbies from 2002-2005 (he went 1-6 in 2006), last pitching in a Major League game in August of 2006.

His story is a sad one. He was a kid oozing with pure baseball talent. A dominant pitcher, but also a good enough hitter that he was used in pinch-hitting situations. I had the opportunity to attend Game 5 of the 2003 NLCS in Miami between the Cubs and Marlins, and during BP, he had one of the best swings on either club. It’s sad to think that a once-promising career may be over before he really had the chance to get it going, no matter what team he pitched for, but it would seem that that could be the case with Prior.

Over his Big League career (to-date), Prior averaged over 10 Ks per 9 innings every year but 2006, with a career average of 10.4 K/9. He made the All-Star Team in 2003, also finishing 3rd in the Cy Young voting (behind Jason Schmidt and winner Eric Gagne) and 9th in MVP voting that year. He had signed 2 Minor League contracts with his home-town Padres after leaving Chicago, never reaching the Majors with the team and undergoing two major surgeries on his pitching shoulder since 2007.

I do hope that Mark is able to return to his prior form and return to the Majors at some point with some team. To see this be the end of what should have been one of the game’s best pitchers in recent memory would be a shame. Best of luck, Mark, and I hope to be able to see you pitch one day at Citi Field, in a Mets uniform or otherwise.

Conan O’Brien became the most recent person to mock the Mets, with a video of “Mr. Met” smashing windows on someone’s car.  Conan made comments about the Mets being “practically in last place in their division” and about this being a terrible year for the Mets.  On half of that, he’s right, but I think we’re on the brink of something good…

We’re slowly and quietly creeping up the standings in the Wild Card hunt, and for the first time this season we seem to be doing everything right.  We’re sacrificing players over, bunting well, running the bases well (sometimes with assistance from the home-plate umpire), and we’re playing — dare I say it — good baseball.  I’ve even noticed that most, if not all, of our players are now using 2 hands on routine fly balls.  We’re playing solid D, and our offense has picked it up recently.

Naysayers will point out that we’re still way out, and we are, but we’re gaining ground on the leaders while OUR leaders continue their road back.  The team, even at 3 games below .500, has regained a bit of a swagger and personality to them that we haven’t seen in a few years.  They look like a TEAM out there, and they’re enjoying playing TEAM baseball.  Jeff Francoeur seems to have brought a spark to the Club, and they look rejuvenated.  Even without Jose Reyes, Dos Carloses, and a legitimate #2 starter, I’ve actually gained confidence in the team that we are currently fielding.  This team seems to have realized that they cannot put the season on the shoulders of 1 or 2 guys, and something clicked.

I also think that what has happened off of the field has been GOOD for the Mets.  With Omar Minaya, Tony Bernazard, and the Wilpons taking the brunt of the media, the players have been able to focus on baseball.  Consider that since the Bernazard story broke, the Mets are 4-1 and have started playing their best baseball of the season.  Whether it’s a coincidence or not is up for debate, but I for one think that it has helped the team stay focused on baseball, now that the team has had bigger issues in the front office.

Getting back to on-the-field items, during last night’s broadcast, Keith, Ron, and Gary brought up the 2000 Mets (not necessarily by comparison to the current club), and it got me thinking.  They mentioned our outfield that year, made up of Benny Agbayani, Jay Payton, and Derek Bell, pointing out that we basically had 3 nobodies playing in the grass at Shea for us every night.  I looked a little deeper and I found some interesting numbers.  Every player on the left side of our infield that year hit .260 or below (including backup Melvin Mora).  We only had 2 players (Piazza and Alfonzo) hit .300 or better.  Our rotation only had 2 pitchers with an ERA of 4.00 or better.  Yet we got to the World Series.

My point in all of this is not to say anything bad about the 2000 Mets, but to reveal the light of the 2009 Mets.  It didn’t take a lineup of All-Stars having incredible seasons to win 94 games and come within 1 game of the 1st Place Braves in 2000, it took a TEAM.  Entering last week, I feel like we had a group of individuals playing in matching jerseys.  It wasn’t selfish baseball, but there was just a lack of a team mentality and a belief in the team, something was clearly missing.  When I look at the Mets since the end of the Nationals series last week, they seem to have been given a wake-up call, and I can see a team that is playing hard as a team day in and day out.  Players are smiling after making productive outs, and the bench gets excited as well.  There’s a fresh and positive feel to this ballclub, and it has actually given me a good feeling about how the rest of this year works out.  So to Conan O’Brien, Steve Phillips, and everyone else who has been mocking the Mets so far this year, I say laugh it up.  Because while you’re laughing, we’re working hard — as a team.

ESPN just reporterd (3:00pm EST) that the Pittsburgh Pirates have dealt left-handed first baseman Adam LaRoche to the Boston Red Sox for a pair of Minor Leaguers. Pittsburgh gets Double-A shortstop Argenis Diaz and Class A right-hander Hunter Strickland, an 18th-round draft pick two years ago.

Diaz, a 22-year-old known for his outstanding defense, is hitting .253 with no homers and 24 RBIs in 76 games during his sixth pro season, at Portland.

Strickland, 20, is 5-4 with a 3.35 ERA in 18 games, including 12 starts, at Greenville of the South Atlantic League. He has only 13 walks in 83 1/3 innings.

This appears to be another case of the Pirates dumping players, and while I’ve thrown LaRoche’s name out as a player the Mets could go after this offseason, I’m glad they didn’t go after him right now. LaRoche has been in the middle of a GIANT slump, going 0-for-22 at one point, and I’d rather let Murphy play 1st Base until Delgado returns to see if we need to sign a guy like LaRoche in the offseason or if Dan can really be the Man for us next year.

I am curious as to why Omar Minaya has not contacted the Pirates about anybody on their roster at this point. While a team that is suffering like the Pirates are doesn’t exactly scream “great players for sale”, particularly when they’ve already moved so many of their top players, I think it’s at least worth a phone call.

With Jon Heyman standing by his report that the Mets turned down an offer from the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay, it got me thinking about what the Mets and their farm system would look like in the aftermath of a Halladay trade. Surprisingly to myself, I came to the conclusion that what’s left of the Farm System does not matter if the Mets acquire Halladay. That’s right, I said the farm system does not matter.

If it cost the Mets just about EVERYTHING we had down on the Farm to get Roy Halladay, we’d be better off. Even if the Mets offered Niese, Evans, Mejia, and F-Mart for just Halladay, we’d win. Consider the following:

 - Daniel Murphy has looked strong defensively at 1st base, and at 24, he’s still on his way up. Plus, he’s one of a select few Mets who still looks like he cares.

- Luis Castillo’s got another year left in the Orange and Blue at 2nd, and while we may need a fill-in for a year, we’d still have Wilmer Flores as his eventual successor if he can transition to 2B.

- Jose Reyes and David Wright will be our SS/3B for years to come.

- Jeff Francoeur is young, has a howitzer for an arm, and has shown the ability to hit and drive in runners…oh, and he’s a gamer, and that cannot be discounted.

- Carlos Beltran can man CF for a good number more years, and when his contract expires, it frees up enough dough to replace him with a free agent.

- Angel Pagan has shown the ability to play when he’s healthy, and having a 1-2 of Reyes and Pagan in the lineup sounds great to me (consider the 2003 Marlins, with Pierre and Castillo).

- Our rotation becomes Santana, Halladay, Pelfrey, Maine, Oliver Perez, and guys like Nieve and (eventually) Holt would be in line to fill-in if and when needed. The average age of the starting 5: 28 1/2, and only Halladay (32) is over 30.

- Our catchers are 32 and 28, 30 years old on average.

My point is not that a farm system isn’t important, but that if your roster is young and successful, that means you’ve already utilized what you’ve needed from the farm. The average age of the lineup that I just projected (replacing Castillo with Flores and counting the catcher’s position as 30 years old), plus the rotation, set up man, and closer is under 27 years old. In that lineup, only Beltran and Halladay are currently over 30 (both 32). If you have players that have 5 years (at least) left in them at every position, you’ve got 5 years to rebuild your farm system to create their replacements. Now, this of course means that the Mets would need to persuade Halladay to sign an extension and the Wilpons would have to shell out for him, but if the Mets were to trade for him, don’t you think that would be discussed ahead of time (with the Wilpons anyway)?

The next logical question is: “well, what about if a season like this year (God forbid) happens again? Won’t we be out of promising backups?” To this, I respond with another question: Who has been the better sub THIS year: Gary Sheffield or Fernando Martinez? While F-Mart and Evans will undoubtedly be better in the long run, as far as being injury replacements go, it takes guys like Sheff, not prospects like F-Mart and Evans, to step in and try and keep it close. Unless you get lucky with a Daniel Murphy like the Mets did last year, prospects won’t be better as fill-ins than the near-the-end-of-his-career players.

I’m not suggesting that Minaya go to Toronto and say “take whatever you’d like and you can have it”, I’m just pointing out how insignificant the farm system would potentially become if the Mets acquired Halladay. I don’t necessarily like the idea of not having much as far as Minor League Future Stars goes, but if it means the New York Mets win now and for a few more years, who cares if Buffalo and Binghamton go winless?