Mets Merized Online

Dizzy with Hope: Amazin (s’) Power Projections for 2010

Now that the ridiculous talk of winning the World Series in 2010 has started, why not speculate about one stat that can be a fairly important contributing factor that helps a team get to that greatest of sports’ stages, the home run.

Given my sterling track record for home run predictions (Sure, bring on the wisecracks and insults!), I cannot prevent giddiness from getting the better of me as I think about how many long balls will be hit by the Mets this season, as well as which sultans of swat will own particular numbers of these gopher balls. At least we can all be reasonably sure that the 2010 Mets will exceed 2009’s dismal total of 95 HRs.

Oh, before your read any further my predictions must be prefaced with the following caveat: everybody’s going to have a great year! The Mets will hit about 184 HRs this year.

Alright, here goes (not in any particular batting order):

1. Jose Reyes - 17 HRs, 81 RBIs, and .298 BA
2. Luis Castillo and Alex Cora – 2 HRs, 61 RBI, and .286 BA
3. Carlos Beltran – 24 HRs, 91 RBIs, and .293 BA
4. Jason Bay – 31 HRs, 115 RBIs, and .267 BA
5. David Wright – 26 HRs, 109 RBIs, and .308 BA
6. Jeff Francoeur – 29 HRs, 89 RBIs, and .254 BA
7. Daniel Murphy – 19 HRs, 83 RBIs, and .272 BA
8. Catchers-Go-Round – 20 HRs, 67 RBIs, and .229 BA

Cora, Mathews Jr., Pagan, Jacobs, and Sundry – 16 HRs, 55 RBIs, and .240 BA

I know, it’s been a while. I spent the month of August in Uzbekistan, decidedly a country where precious few people care much for the fate of our beloved Mets. Aside from trying to explain the delicious nuances of baseball in halting Uzbek to a couple of KGB inquisitors who were watching a Russian-dubbed version of a Yankees-Red Sox game, my only other exposure to baseball was a once-every-ten-day check of the internet where I got to find out about the further demise of my Miracle-less Mets. Once David Wright got bonked in the noggin, we all knew that was just about all she wrote.

Once home, I jetted to Denver w/ family in tow to spend two glorious days at Coors Field just hoping our Mets would play quality BB w/ Wright’s return. My best friend from childhood—another fanatical diehard—and I had the best seats in the house, aside the Mets dugout. We had a chance to talk w/ many of the players and scream encouragement all night long. Naturally, they lost, but they rebounded the next day, playing like a real MLB team. I actually had a short chat w/ Manuel. A lovely man. I told him, falsely, I’m afraid, that I loved him, believed in him, and knew it was a terrible year. He chuckled and said, “We’re not done yet.” I wanted to say, “Yeah, ya are, Jerry,” but I refrained and rooted our boys on w/ every bit of hand clapping and larynx-exhausting  strength I could muster.

Now, for the past eight or nine days, I have been riveted (for reasons I care not to fathom) to my TV watching the Un-Amazins’ lose ball game after ball game in a fashion that can only be described as literally disgusting. We all know they comprise Double-A and Triple-A subs at this point, but I’m not sure this explains why the quality of their BB is so fundamentally unsound. It’s all so reminiscent of the unbelievable mistakes we witnessed back in May and June when, as angry as we were, we might have thought, “Okay, they’re still ironing out the kinks.” Maybe I am watching now in a  masochistic way just to see what mind-numbing mistakes they can make today! If it isn’t paltry hitting, then it’s inexcusable errors, and if it’s not that then it’s not-ready-for-prime-time-pitching and relieving. I also enjoy playing “Guess that Met.” Honestly, it isn’t funny, and it isn’t fun to watch.

Back in June, I think, I wrote an MMO column descrying the necessity of firing JMAN—yes, the guy I wish were my next door neighbor. He knows baseball, but he has no demonstrable ability to motivate 25 guys to win, let alone get anywhere close to playing fundamentally sound BB. Sure, many of you will disagree; that’s fine. Maybe the sort I am proposing will fail, too, but next year I do want a fire-and-brimstone maniac—the baseball equivalent of Bill Parcells. I bloody well mean it. And, duh, I’d like to see the end of the Omar era, too. We don’t have to be WS champions next year, we just have to be able to watch quality BB being played in Queens.

Moreover, I have long detested the phrase “Blow it all up” in reference to the Mets for two years of collapses and the disaster that is 2009. Now, I have changed my mind. I am not going to pretend as if I know who will always suck, who’s going to have a big turnaround year for the Mets or some other team next year, or who is absolutely worth keeping beyond Wright, Francoeur, Beltran, Reyes, and Santana, but I would probably consider just about every other starting player dispensable. This group does not play quality baseball well together.

You know, people, you are having a miserable fan experience where your only hope or joy in mid-September is that the Yankees DON’T win the WS.

I just read Vac’s Whacks in the Post. Mike Vaccaro is one of my favorite sports journalists, and I almost always incline toward his take on the Mets.

This morning he pronounces the death knell for our 2009 season, Mets fans.

I know I’m not going to win any friends or have any influence by saying the following, but I am beginning to be overtaken by hopelessness. Yes, it’s true: before yesterday’s game I had hope–high ones at that.

So what, now that we’ve lost one game I’m giving up? Well, yes and no. I am always wondering when to feel a final prediction is safe. I know, if and when we’re mathematically eliminated, but then that’s not a prediction, is it? If we get swept in Atlanta, I think we’re doomed. My expectation was a for a series split. Seriously, .500 ball for one series will already be a cut above our first half record.

I feel more gloomish and doomish than usual because of all of the players’ comments I read, from Perez to Wright to Schneider. A fast creeping sense of defeatism seems to be taking over. Let’s put it this way, we go ten games behind, I don’t think we have any chance to catch breath again.

You don’t seriously expect the Phucks to go into a major tailspin now, do you? Memory serves to tell me they’ve been pretty strong finishers recently. Furthermore, we have to focus on beating Atlanta and the Marlins. If we can’t do that, first place will not even go through Philly for us.

I will watch tonight, and I will be praying. We all know Pelf was a disaster last year against Braves, esp. in Atlanta. Jurrjens has been pretty tough on us. Make a stand, Mets! Reverse course immediately.

Indications are that Martinez is now a Phil for something like a million bucks with an incentives package worth $1.5 million, with an official announcement just hours away.

Recall back in spring that Martinez supposedly wanted 5 million for the year, and this was a leading reason the Mets wouldn’t bite. Well, to many it made sound sense. Obviously, he cannot ask for too much signing now in July.

From March on I have been among those calling for his return to the Mets. Others adamantly disagree, especially among the Metsmerized faithful. That’s fine. While there’s no doubt, Martinez never really did much for the Mets, he at least seemed and acted like a Met. Like all Mets fans, we wanted him to be a Cy Younger, ultimately, a huge Mets success story. He never was. So why would I clamor for his return, especially after a few truly forgettable and teeth-gnashing outings to cap the disaster that was 2008?

My feeling as far back as 2007 was that Martinez on the one-hand was an injury-prone liability but that he had never shown he was incapable of being a very good pitcher. Thirty-seven or thirty-eight years of age affects all players differently, but many pitchers can successfully pitch into their forties. Sure, they often lose power, velocity, and endurance, but HOFers and greats mix up repertoires and refine certain pitches as they age to be effective in new ways. Attitude and outlook, obviously, account for much, too.

Many of us fans felt that the Mets had done everything necessary for Petey, that now it was his turn to give back, basically in the form of accepting any offer the Mets threw his way b/c he had already cost us much heartache. At the same time, that’s really not a rational way of thinking about how professional athletes conduct themselves when trying to stay professional. Martinez has been an outstanding pitcher throughout most of his career. Did anybody really think that if he wanted to continue pitching, he was going to throw himself on the mercy of Mets management, saying, ” I know I haven’t been too good, but please let me return and you can have me for a song”? Seriously, it makes little sense.

Martinez is as driven a competitor as any other pitcher and proved his desire to help the Mets even in his capacity as injured bench guy. True, you don’t need to pay a former great millions to cheer the actual players on, but why shouldn’t a truly healthy Martinez help any team out down the stretch?

As I asked here back in March, do any of you really think Redding, Hernandez, or Nieve (at that time I include, ahem, Freddie Garcia!) will necessarily be more helpful to the Mets than a relatively healthy and engaged Martinez come August and September? Sorry, folks, but this thing has badly missed opportunity written all over it.

No one is hoping he fails like a wet firecracker more than I when he joins the Phucks rotation come the second half of August, and while I’m at it, I also vow that I’m not going to write any snippy “I-told-you-so” pieces if a typical Mets nightmare scenario comes to pass.

Sigh!

JMAN’s post-game last night–not so good.

Very Randolph-esque now. Lots of mumblin’, lots of hoping, lots of “it’s not so good; we have to try to turn it around” crap!

Fans, I’m thinkin’ it’s high time for a little fire and brimstone. Whadda ya say? No one would seriously argue that a bit of the rant and rave would make matters worse, right?

Here’s an appeal to the Wilpons or Minaya: Fly me to Queens and give me ten minutes in the dugout w/ my beloved and pathetic Mets.

Here’s what I’ll do: I’ll break a lot of stuff, and then yell, scream, spit, and cuss up a storm about the way these underachievers have underperformed, then I’ll cruise into my peroration. If nothing else, it will so affect those lethargic bums so much that they will be roused–at least a few of them–to beat the ever-lovin’ SH#& out of me. It’s a beating I will gladly suffer b/c it will jump start these men.

Sorry, but testosterone, nay testicles, seems to be in incredibly short supply in that clubhouse.

I’m afraid Manuel is going to be a memory before long.

The man is not cutting it.

Where in the name of God is some inspiration!

What was the score tonight? A hundred to two, or some such. I checked out in the fourth inning to garden and get to know my children, who’ve known only a Mets fan psycho for the past month or so. Being true to my Mets OCD-self, however, I had to keep checking back. At the back of my mind, there’s always the prayer that there’s going to be some crazy comeback. And then I realize, the only thing crazy is my thinking this.

Okay, LA is a good team, but I don’t think they’re great, and there’s no way we had to lose this series, but, er, ah, naturally, we did. We got obliterated in two of three contests. And yet, I felt that maybe somehow we could go back into battle with the same lineup and beat these guys again tonight. And then I saw  tonight’s lineup. Certainly not nuts, but so many have intelligently asked why replace Murph w/ the friggin’ bum Tatis when stats don’t even bear this out?! JMAN reportedly said that it was a combination of lefty-righty match ups and the fact that pitchers are “getting to know Murph.” WTH?? I don’t know about the rest of you, but I’m convinced Tatis’ solid playing days are over, and the Mets don’t need him except as an occasional stopgap, but he’s really not very good at that. He’s a good man w/ no baseball future.

Here I’m going to get a little and briefly random to support the argument in my headline: Jerry Manuel is a really decent man who will not advance the Mets, especially the Mets in extremis. All of my White Sox fans buddies make sense: he couldn’t get it done in Chicago, and he won’t get it done in NY. Tonight I think I figured it out. He’s a sharp baseball man in so many ways, but he’s not a great decision-maker, and he’s not the kind of guy who can get the extra yard out of our beleaguered club. Overall, it’s the bad decisions that convince me this very likeable and decent guy has to go. I know, I know, less than a week ago, I was arguing that there’s nothing he can do. Tonight I changed my mind. We might win with him, but, ultimately, we will never get high up on any mountain with him. What follows are my cases in point, or the examples to support my argument:

1) Nick Evans can’t really play the OF; we saw it again tonight. Reed should be in there, although he’s an unreliable bat. Evans cannot be counted on to hit either, so what in God’s name do they have him futzing around in left field for?

2) Livan Hernandez never should have been allowed to pitch eight earned runs. How idiotically demoralizing. I know the pen is overused, but this guy sucks some very sour lemons right now. Frankly, it would be great if he collected his things and headed elsewhere (maybe in a TRADE!!!)

3) Omir Santos—the hero of the Red Sox series… the train seems to have left a while ago. I do not see him as a future catcher for our Mets. The bat seems to have tanked, and he is mediocre to less-than-mediocre on defense. I don’t know if Schneider was fatigued, but I didn’t like the fact that he was sacrificed for the lefty-righty match up either. In fact, I’d love to see the overall percentages with these constant lineup changes based on lefty-righty. Can’t be too good now can it, given our bloody record!

4) Bullpen guys just never seem to be used in the best way. True, tonight it hardly mattered, but Tim-You-Stink-So-Awfully-Redding again?! How did we ever buy into the delusion that this was a quality Nationals pitcher who just endured tough luck. Let’s box up folks like Redding, Hernandez, Evans, and Santos (among others) and try to get one decent hurler or hitter. Heck throw Manuel in the mix, too.

We know that the team is badly broken, and that Manuel cannot take all of the blame, but even in these dire straits, he just makes so many inadequate decisions. I hate the suspicion of rashness that I think my position entails here, but I cannot for the life of me see our Mets becoming champions of their own division, let alone the world with Jerry Manuel at the helm. I’m sorry, but it’s time to move on.

You may ask why I’m not calling for Minaya’s ouster as well. Frankly, I am more frustrated by his statements than how he operates at this point. My hunch tells me he is working hard to do something by the deadline, but if not, then I am inclined to see him go unless, of course, it’s all about what the Wilpons won’t let him do, but then that just means he’s weak and ineffectual. On the other hand, since I wanted the Mets to re-sign Petey back in March, I am pretty cross about the Phils’ apparent acquisition. Despite everything, I am not inclined to concede 2009. It’s really important to me as a Mets fan that ownership isn’t either! The clock, she is ticking…

According to Minaya earlier today, he is “hope[ful]” that the Mets we have can stay competitive until the myth of the injured come back to rescue us and vault us into first place. The GM has hope? I watched eight innings of tonight’s game—rather foolishly as I think about it now—and I decided that hoping this team will stay competitive is akin to hoping I will earn a million bucks next year. Possible, of course, but highly unlikely.

In case you missed it, we lost to the Dodgers by the close score of 8-0. We mustered four hits tonight, including no extra base hits (unless you’d like to consider Cora reaching 2B when that idiot Castillo tried to stagger-step his way to third…enough!), not really even a deep fly ball. The Dodgers still don’t strike me as all that dominating a team, but they get hits, don’t swing at crap, work pitch counts, and, occasionally hit HRS off the freakin’ billboard in right (DeWitt)!

Let’s see, Pelf sucked, but he wasn’t horrible. Okay that doesn’t make much sense, but if you watched him pitch, you might agree with me. At any rate, he lasted a resounding three innings and threw 95 pitches. Whatever groove the guy had seems to have evened out. I’m afraid you won’t see the return of the ’08 Summer Pelf any time soon. Manuel eventually came out (seemed like it was the ninth and not the third!) to give him a love pat and tell him it’s all going to be better someday.

The BP characters followed, Dessens, Redding, Stokes (sorry, probably destined to be clowns 25 years from now in the annals of Mets pitching), Dodgers tacked on three more. End of story. Actually, I’m being uncharitable because the BP guys weren’t nearly as bad as Pelf, just mediocre. And with the Mets being unable to hit their way out of the proverbial paper bag…the idea of keeping us in the game seems an entirely moot point. I know, you get it.

As for the defense, I’m afraid Alex Cora was bang on: it’s so bad—horribly fielded grounders—Castillo; weakly thrown balls—WTH is with David Wright’s arm(?!); Nick Evans badly playing fly balls, miserable throws to the plate. Aaaaarrrrggghhh! Is Omir Santos capable of getting the ball on a fly to either the second baseman or SS?? And again, I hate to use this by now tired phrase, but just when you think they couldn’t possibly play a more lackluster, amateurish defense, oh, yes, they do!

If you’re not feeling desperate, then I think you don’t understand MLB. Miracles always happen, but if you think this roster of guys and that nice but befuddling and mumbling manager are going to get their act together soon to turn this season around, I’d have to say you are less loyal than unaware. We will sooner see another Immaculate Conception in 2009 than the Mets put together a winning record. Translation: this team as currently constituted cannot win. I love the Mets, but the 2009 Mets are sunk in their current incarnation. Never thought I’d see it this way, but tonight pushed me over the edge.

Lastly, wondering how many of you saw the Times articles today on the increase in injuries in BB, and the story about the Mets being built for today (NYUK!) and not about to be successful tomorrow? Encouraging! Lastly, lastly, didn’t Minaya already say something today about keeping the 2010 and 2011 seasons in mind. Think that about said it all.

Hmmm… what next genius move will emanate from Mets’ ownership? Perhaps the promotion of Josh Thole or Wilmer Flores. My God, what farther depths will we sink to this season?

If being swept out of Citi by the Yanks weren’t bad enough, today we fans were treated to a greater humiliation (owing to playoff chances and division rivalry) by being swept out of Citizens Bank Park, a 2-0 loss to the Phils, to that ace of aces, Joe Blanton; this guy had an ERA of 5.-something before the start of today’s game.

Every time we had a chance to score, you could count on Wright or Tatis (a joke!) to hit into ye olde double play. Again, I just can’t remember when the Mets looked so horrible in every fundamental way at the plate. I really wanted to see Murph up w/ the bases loaded, especially as he’d had a brilliant previous at bat, walking on 11-pitches. Manuel played the percentages, the pitching change match up, and, of course, we could have predicted the result when we got to hear the tired old refrain: “Tatis has hit two GS against Chan Ho Park…” Ugh!

Again, Sheff came up, and again he loves to look at the meatball fastballs he’s served. Total gopher pitches that he enjoys taking for strikes, but then throw him the ball away and in the dirt, and he’s sure to put a mighty swing on it. Nothing, but nothing is working!

My girlfriend told me I needed a break from the Mets today, and I’m beginning to think she’s right. We are four games out; we could’ve been two out. I see a very bleak July for this team unless something radically unexpected happens. Wright just typifies how they are hitting. The guy looks as bad as I have ever seen him—totally pathetic. It’s like automatic that he’s just going to K. Wowweee!

Santana threw well, even knowing he didn’t have electric stuff. Two of the three base hits he allowed just happened to go a little too far. We used to say, it’s not so hard to understand why the Mets don’t score much for him because he’s usually opposed by other aces. Certainly wasn’t the case today.

I don’t know about you, but I am so disgusted with these Mets. Good thing we didn’t go after Ramirez or Ibanez.

Next up the Dodgers. Should be fun. Please call me with the results.

To [Have] be[en] meeee… at Miller Park. There I was one among a couple of hundred Mets fans (I guess) screaming my lungs out like an idiot, jumping up and down trying to say hi to Keith and Gary (who I am sure saw me as the resident nut w/ the vintage Hernandez jersey), and all the while the Mets–from top to bottom–looked a lot like a minor league team. I mean that.

Before I get started, let me say to my Mets fans brothers and sisters that if you haven’t been to Miller Park, it’s really worth it. Great crowds of fairly passionate and mainly tipsy Wisconsinites (clearly not as into baseball as football), who tailgate for hours with beers an brats. They will tease a little, but they are not nasty, and they really want to know if you like their stadium–yes. The Brew Crew is a team that’s hard to hate, likable players who are high-octane for the most part.

Anyway, when Argenis Non-Reyes leads off you can be pretty sure you’re not starting out well. Question: since we all know that Slappy McSlapster is a way better lifetime hitter at the front end of the lineup rather than the backend, Why in the Name of God, does Manuel bat him eighth???

As I wrote yesterday, the Mets overall defense is now as great a liability as any aspect of their uniformly bad game (yes, for the most part we still hit). You don’t see errors necessarily, but simply badly played MLB. One friend asked me if the Mets infielders were stuck in cement, given how late and badly they react to sharply hit balls. It’s true. For example, Cora is fundamentally sound, but the reflexes aren’t quite there. Murph again does not know how to hold a runner and get to his right quickly when the ball is hit in his vicinity. One can only imagine the uncharitable things Keith mutters under his breath as he observes. It’s sad my friends, very sad. The OF not quick to the BB, and simply not calculating speed and proportions properly. Martinez ain’t no Beltran.

We are all witnessing the sorry erosion of the bullpen. Look at the ERAs–worse and worse by the day. As far as I can tell, Parnell needs some remedial AAA work right now. Stokes is what he is–mediocre to the core. Yes, he’s been reliable most of the season, but he will not be reliable late, just like last year.

You know how bad the starting pitching is when–if like me–you are inning hopes on the return of OP–yikes!

Since we all like a bright spot, I was happy when Sheff hit that laser beam. Milwaukeeans had been tormenting him the whole game with chants of “Garyyyyyy, Garrrrrryyyyyyy…you suck! He showed those creeps!

Other than that I walked away from the ballpark, drained from screaming, watching 32 base hits ping all over the place, and coming to the most miserable of realizations that our Mets are set to wallow in suckdom for the long haul barring something really miraculous.  Didn’t feel so good leaving that place.

My last plea: for the time being we should leave Manuel out of this. As I said before, he blunders plenty, and I don’t think he’ll be a Mets manager for that much longer, but how on earth is this guy supposed to lead them to victory given this roster. There’s talent people, and then there’s talent.