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Archive for the ‘Danny Krieger’ Category

Time To Trade Fernando Martinez?

Posted by Danny Krieger On March - 8 - 2010

Several days ago Mike Silva of the NY Baseball Digest posted an article titled “Could The Mets Get Adrian Gonzalez?” Silva proposed last spring that the Mets offer Jenrry Mejia, Jon Niese, Brad Holt, Fernando Martinez, and Daniel Murphy, now he suggests adding Ike Davis into the mix with a combination that still includes Mejia and F-Mart. He says, “A big year from F-Mart and he all of a sudden becomes the kind of piece you can center in a blockbuster package”.  He thinks that there could be an opportunity to make a trade prior to the July trade deadline, if the Mets are in serious contention.

Everyone is entitled to his or her opinion.  Blogs afford this opportunity, as so they do for the commentor to express agreement or disagreement.  Not only do I disagree with Silva but I totally take issue with his entire mentality and philosophy in proposing such a trade.  To sum up my thoughts in one sentence:  Making such a trade is not the way to run a major league franchise.

Most Mets fans are disillusioned with ownership’s inconsistent actions in executing a long term strategy.  That’s why the Mets are never able to contend for an extended period of time.  That’s why we need a plan that maintains a constant flow of prospects coming up through the minor league system.  They need to be well coached and tutored to afford them the opportunity to develop and eventually play important roles at the major league level.  We also need a top tier free agent or two to complement our future stars.  The result would be continuity of the roster from year to year for many years.  Chemistry, camaraderie, and hopefully success will be the end result.

This is not a unique or novel approach.  It simply combines the best strategies of small market teams and large market teams.

In my opinion, a strong farm system is the most important factor in being able to achieve the stated goal.  To be fair, I realize that there is more than one way to build a championship caliber team.  And there are many who disagree with my opinion which so heavily would rely on the minor league system.  It’s true that the Mets have had little success developing their own players.  There is a history of over-hyping our prospects and when they do not meet our lofty expectations, we trade them but get little in return.  In addition, as a large market team, we can afford to splurge on top free agents.  These arguments do give credence to the idea of acquiring Adrian Gonzalez at any cost.

I say we need a strong farm system at any cost.  If it’s broken it must be fixed.  And if it can’t be fixed by the current administration, a change must be made.  In this vein, I have never criticized Omar for failing to sign an impact free agent or make a high profile trade.  I don’t buy the belief that the Mets need to concentrate their efforts on these types of moves.  Making a big splash to pacify the fans and generate support for the team is short sighted.  Trying to imitate the Yankees formula for success has never worked.

We need to scout better, draft better, and coach better.  The results will be difficult to measure, especially in the short term.  Unfortunately a long term plan doesn’t yield instant success or gratification.  But this is where the money should be spent. The team should be built primarily from within.  Let’s get the right people in charge who can get these results.

Believe it or not, the Mets might be on the right track.  I think the Wilpons, along with Minaya, are in the early stages of implementing such a plan. They haven’t formally announced or publicized this plan, nor might they have the courage to admit that this is the plan.  But seeing what has transpired this winter, there is proof that the winds of change have begun to shift.

Proof lies with the Mets payroll for 2010.  Cot’s Baseball Contracts currently shows the Mets payroll as being down 18% from last year.  That’s $122M against $149M last year.

In addition, there has been no response to the Phillies having increased their payroll substantially.  $98M in 2008, $113M in 2009, and $138M committed to date in 2010.  Yes you read it correctly.  The Phillies as currently constituted, will be outspending the Mets in 2010 by $16M.

An 18% decrease in salary and no knee jerk reactions.  Not signing mediocre free agents to long term contracts is consistent with this strategy.  No short-sighted decisions in hopes of improving poor ticket sales is a sound way of staying the course.

The plan is operational!  But that’s just the beginning.

The second piece of proof that a new strategy is in place is that the Mets have not traded a single minor leaguer this winter, from any level of their organization.  It’s exciting that we now have many highly rated prospects that are predicted to succeed at the major league level.

I think the mentality and philosophy of this organization has changed.  The Madoff fiasco and the poor economy seem to have jolted the Wilpons into changing there tune on how to manage this team.  For whatever reason, it is a change for the better and quite refreshing.

Mets Merized fans are energized about the coming 2010 season, despite having been agitated, disgruntled, and depressed all winter long.   We have laid our hopes on all the injured players being healthy, comeback seasons by last year’s underachievers, and the addition of Jason Bay, hopefully a leader and backbone of the team.  Plus now for the first time in years, we feel turned on by our prospects having the potential to be true impact players.

I want to see Jenrry Mejia and Jon Niese pitch for the Mets, not some other team.  I want Ike Davis and Fernando Martinez to be the ones getting curtain calls at Citifield.  Brad Holt, Ruben Tejada, Wilmer Flores and many others.  Who knows?  I’ll take my chances with them.  I don’t want to see any of these guys coming into Citifield with a visiting team’s uniform on.

I want my trip to Citifield to center on an exciting game played by an exciting team.  I don’t want my memory to be having stood on line at the Shake Shack or being mesmerized by the waterless urinals.

All I am saying is to give patience a chance.

Danny Baseball

Nelson Figueroa Gets No Respect

Posted by Danny Krieger On March - 4 - 2010

Many people would characterize Nelson Figueroa as a very good AAA player.  He can start or relieve, help the team win some games, and fill up seats in the minor league ballpark.  Nelson is probably looking at this kind of scenario again in 2010; one in which he starts the season in the minors, then due to injuries or ineffectiveness on the major league squad, he is called up and gets another opportunity to show his stuff.

Figueroa has been hanging around professional baseball for fifteen years now, occasionally having some success in the major leagues.  But to me he is not the typical borderline major leaguer of whom most fans would never hear or care about.

Figueroa will turn 36 years old in May.  He was born and lives in Brooklyn.  You might recall the large family contingency he’s had at most of his home starts.  I will always remember him because on one hot summer day in 2001, I was at Shea when he pitched for the Phillies against the Mets.  The Mets won, he pitched credibly, and got a no decision.  After the game I saw him outside the park crowded around by about twenty family members.  He was at the time a 27 year old rookie living the dream and having the time of his life.  My eight year old son came away with a lot that day.  He got Nelson Figueroa’s autograph on his brand new Mets floppy hat.

Nelson played baseball at Abraham Lincoln High School and then at Brandeis University.  He was a 30th round draft pick by the Mets in 1994.  For the Mets he played in Kingsport, Capital City and Binghamton.  Then he moved on to the Diamondbacks, and then the Phillies organization which is where he broke into the majors.  He had a short major league stint with the Pirates in 2004 but hadn’t been seen or heard from since, until he surfaced with the Mets in 2008.  In between, he spent a year each playing for the Long Island Ducks and Chihuahua of the Mexican League.

One thing you can say for sure about Figueroa is what you can also say about hundreds of guys like him.  It’s that he loves baseball more than anything.  He has never given up his love for the game and the competition and thrill of getting batters out, regardless of the level at which he is playing.  He is truly a lifer and my guess is that he will be in the game in some capacity for many years to come.

I wouldn’t call it a crossroads but Figueroa is at an interesting point of his career.   Oddly, in 2008 at the age of 34, and after 4 years away, he made it back to the majors with the Mets.  He pitched in 16 games starting 6 of them and finished with a 3-3 record and 4.57 ERA.  Lo and behold, in 2009 he pitched even better.  Although his record was a poor 3-8, his ERA dropped to 4.09 and he struck out 59 batters in 70 innings.  His K/9 ratio was over seven.  He beat the Cubs at Wrigley Field; pitching 7 innings, allowing 1 run, and striking out 10.  And in October, he pitched a complete game shutout against the Astros, giving up 4 hits and striking out seven.  In 6 of his 10 starts he gave up 2 runs or less.  In addition he was lights out at AAA Buffalo and again this winter in the Dominican League.

Maybe I shouldn’t be making such a big deal about Figgy.  But I like the guy and am rooting for him.  Last year despite pitching well for the Mets he was twice designated for assignment and subsequently not picked up by a single team.   Each time he returned to AAA Buffalo and continued to pitch well.  It’s hard to believe that there was not one major league team that needed Figgy to fill in for awhile and start a couple of games, while getting paid the league minimum.  As a 5th starter, I’d take a wild guess that he would be better than 33% of other teams 5th starters.

I want Figgy to play for the Mets in 2010.  Having grown up a Mets fan, I think he’d like to continue playing here too.  And I think he’s good enough to make the team as the long reliever if not the 5th starter.  However, he could end up being the odd man out in a numbers game with Jon Niese, Fernando Nieve, and others all vying for the last spots on the staff.  It’s likely that Figgy will be let go again.  It’s a shame because at the age of 35 he is pitching the best baseball of his career.

This time I would wager that he will be claimed by another major league team giving him a shot to start every fifth day.  Finally, with another team, maybe Figgy will get the respect he so rightly has earned and deserves.

Check out my other stuff at Danny Baseball.

Batting 2nd And Playing 2nd Base, #1, Luis Castillo

Posted by Danny Krieger On March - 1 - 2010

Can you believe that Luis Castillo has won the starting 2nd base job for the 2010 New York Mets?  He is the last man standing.  He was a huge underdog to win the job.  But he persevered.  He beat out Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez, Brandon Phillips, and any other 2nd baseman that might have been available through trade or free agency.

Luis might have won the job by default but he still deserves the credit.  Last year when he dropped the pop up, he courageously faced the media and the fans wrath.  He will undoubtedly be there to face the media and all their redundant questions again this spring.  I expect him to confidently say that he is in great shape and plans on playing even better than last season.  And he intends to prove his detractors wrong.

Luis Castillo is showing us something -  heart and courage.  He has exhibited incredible mental toughness to not have quit on himself or his team, just because the fans have quit on him.  Even if we don’t like his game, we should respect his efforts and attitude.  And support him.  It turns out that Luis is the kind of player we need on the Mets.  He is a leader.

There are so many Mets fans, me included, that had grown tired of watching his game.  But it’s now time to put all that behind us;  the dropped pop up, the lack of power and the poor defense. Let’s face it.  If Luis Castillo can repeat the year he had in 2009, he will be an asset to this team.

Last year he proved that he could play injury free for an entire season.  He played in 142 games.  He hit .302 with a .387 OBP.  We might not like that he is just a singles hitter, but you can’t argue that he constantly gets on base.  If he can repeat this performance in 2010, he will help the team.  Luis’s weaknesses were especially evident last year because of the injuries and poor play by the players who were being counted on to lead the team on the field.  In other words, Luis was not responsible.  Lost in the failure of the team as a whole was the positive contribution of Castillo.

If batting second, I’d like to see Castillo forgo the sacrifice bunt, especially in the early innings.  That means that Reyes or Pagan, from the lead off spot must be given the opportunity to steal 2nd base.  Then if Castillo can get on base 38% of the time, Beltran, Bay and Wright should have many opportunities to drive in lots of runs.

Defensively, it remains to be seen how Luis will do.  But one thing that I’m starting to question is the validity of the UZR statistic.  I recently wrote about how terrible 1st baseman Mike Jacobs is based on his UZR rating.  In answer to this, I heard Jacobs say in an interview, that players often get bad raps that stick with them regardless of their validity.  Although he had a terrible rating in 2008 his prior years UZR weren’t nearly as bad.

UZR numbers, in any given year can be deceiving.  UZR is a very complicated system of measuring defense which takes into account numerous variables and statistical analysis, and to use this single UZR number alone is totally misleading.  According to Mitchell G. Lichtman (MGL), creator of UZR, a single year’s number is not very significant.  Read all the rhetoric from his comments through this link and please explain to me what he is  talking about.

Castillo’s poor defense last year was likely exaggerated.  And UZR accuracy is certainly questionable when you consider how Castillo could have possibly fielded better in 2008 (UZR of -9 vs. -12 in 2009), despite playing on two gimpy legs and a noticeable limp.  Fans might claim he is indeed bad defensively by watching him play every day.  But surely these fans can not possibly be objective as their perceptions have been highly skewed by their preexisting bias against Luis.

I realize that anyone, including me, can spin numbers to use to his advantage in making a point.  So just hear this one example and you decide if Jacoby Ellsbury is a good center fielder.  Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2008 UZR was a +16.5 and in 2009,  -18.6.  Give me a break Fan Graphs.

I’ve changed my tune on Luis Castillo.  I have gained new respect for him for having the fortitude to survive the media blitz against him and this winter’s discontent by Mets fans.  It’s time to jump on the Castillo bandwagon.  On opening day when the starting lineups are announced, I for one will be at Citifield cheering Luis Castillo’s introduction.  And I hope that all 41,000 others there that day will do the same.

BTW – I’m back at Danny Baseball

Ode To The New York Mets – We’re Behind You Win Or Lose

Posted by Danny Krieger On February - 26 - 2010

This has been the winter of discontent for Mets fans.  We have been extremely vocal and opinionated in criticizing our team and management.  We expect a lot, and rightfully so.  But now that roster moves have been completed, I’ve noticed many more Mets Merized fans excited about the upcoming season.  We are more confident that our core guys are healthy or will be healthy.  And there seems to be renewed hope for our starting pitchers.  Maybe the 2010 Mets do have a shot.  Is it our hearts or our heads that makes hope spring eternal?

Twenty three years it’s been since the Mets have won it all.

Some years they’ve come so close when they’ve played such good baseball.

In ‘88 it looked good until, Scioscia knocked one o’er the wall.

And in 2000 they were on their way until the #7 train did stall.


In 2006 the Cardinals called, could Willie have been smarter?

It looked like Endy saved the game until Molina hit one farther.

It all came down to Beltran,  just one hit would win the game.

But just as “Mighty Casey” struck, Beltran did the same.


So many years of losing I can’t count them on two hands.

In the 60’s “Marvelous Marv” had his head down in the sand.

And after Hodges died, and we hired Yogi Berra.

All good things must come to end and in ‘75 realized our error.


The decade of the ’90s was to be the great unveiling.

With Generation K, Bonilla, Coleman, there could only be clear sailing.

But soon our hopes were dashed and the fans were soon a bailing.

Shea became a morgue to hold the heartbreak of our failing.


And in most recent years, we’ve seen so many come and go.

Art Howe, Lastings, Willie, we hardly got to know.

Our fall from grace in ‘07 and ‘08 was truly a disaster

And in ‘09 our fall towards last could not have come much faster.


But lo, remember ‘69, when Cleon kneeled to catch.

That final out for sure there would never be a match.

And then behold in ‘86, the end was hard to watch.

When a miracle from the heavens let a simple grounder botch.


And now we’re at the crossroads as a brand new decade starts.

Come spring we’re optimistic, if but only in our hearts.

Surely our bats will hit them far and pitchers be a blazing.

Cause there’s no doubt our beloved Mets will surely be amazing.


We pray to the gods that Omar will make all the right moves.

With no division winner, he’ll surely be excused.

We want to win so badly, but do not be confused.

Cause regardless of the outcome, we’re behind you win or lose.

I’m back at dannybaseball.blogspot.com

Murphy Vs. Jacobs: And The Winner Is?

Posted by Danny Krieger On February - 18 - 2010

“For my best friend, who loves Jake despite his low OBP, his iron glove, and his obsession with his hair. Thanks for always being there for me Pam, the way you wish Jake would be for your fantasy team.”

Said by Amanda Cornoyer – The sponsor of Mike Jacobs’s Baseball Reference Page

I am admittedly a fan obsessed with Daniel Murphy.  You all know that I really want this kid to succeed with the New York Mets. And I believe he can. In this post I intend to lay out some statistics, analysis, and rationale that I believe show Murphy to be the superior player and thus best choice for Mets first baseman in 2010.

Mike Jacobs statistics:

2006 : PA – 520   D/T – 38   HR – 20  RBI – 77  BA – .262 OBP – .325  SL – .473

2007 : PA – 460   D/T – 29   HR – 17  RBI – 54  BA – .265 OBP – .317  SL – .458

2008 : PA – 519   D/T – 29   HR – 32  RBI – 93  BA – .247 OBP – .299  SL – .514

2009 : PA – 478   D/T – 17   HR – 19  RBI – 61  BA – .228 OBP – .297  SL – .401

Daniel Murphy statistics:

2009 – PA – 556   D/T – 42   HR – 12  RBI – 63  BA – .266 OBP – .313. SL – .427

Key:  PA-plate appearances; D/T-doubles/triples; SL-slugging

The facts show that Mike Jacobs has had only one season of more than 20 HR (32 in ‘08).  After that breakout season, he slumped badly in 2009.  He has not been the prolific home run hitter that many people seem to think.  In addition, his  BA and OBP are unacceptable for a major leaguer. These numbers have declined every year since he broke in with the Mets in 2005.  At best I would argue that Jacobs has been erratic.  At worst, one could claim that he is no longer a viable major leaguer; hence the lack of any MLB team willing to sign Mike Jacobs to a major league guaranteed contract.

Jacobs showed so much promise during his short stay with the Mets in 2005 and then again in his rookie 2006 season with the Marlins. But he took a big step back in 2007. He had only 54 RBI, even with an impressive 46 XBH. This was mainly due to anemic clutch hitting numbers during a season when he had ample opportunities to drive in runs as the Marlins were prolific run scorers. That year the Marlins scored 790 runs and were 5th in the NL. (For comparative purposes the 2009 Mets and their hapless offense were 25th in the NL and scored only 671 runs.)   Jacobs did breakout in 2008 hitting 32 home runs with 93 RBI. Still his BA dropped to .247 as his OBP fell below .300.  His  2008 season’s clutch hitting numbers were still very weak signifying that his RBI could have been much higher if had he been able to hit in the clutch.  Then last season 2009, after being traded to the Royals, offensively he was terrible.

It is just wishful thinking that Mike Jacobs, with adjustments to his swing, a smaller leg kick, and better plate discipline, will be able to rediscover the form that established him as a feared power hitter. A more likely scenario is that pitchers have figured out his weaknesses and are exploiting them.  Jacobs numbers will continue to stagnate or further decline.

Defensively, Jacobs is unarguably a poor fielder. His career UZR/150 is  -9.0.  This means that for every 150 games, Jacobs has been way below average (average would be 0). Even Carlos Delgado, with an UZR/150 of -3.9, and lambasted by many Mets fans for his poor defense, is significantly better than Jacobs.  Daniel Murphy on the other hand had an UZR/150 of +7.6 last year, showing above average range as a 1st baseman.

Jacobs has had four years to improve his fielding. Finally in 2009 with the Royals, he was relegated to DH duties, starting only 13 games at 1st base all season.  If Mets fans want a 1st baseman to be the “glue” of the infield, Jacobs is a terrible choice. Daniel Murphy is already a much better defensive 1st baseman than Jacobs. Murphy has a work ethic that says “I will not stop until I succeed’”.  And with the proper tutelage which he seems to be getting, he should keep improving.

Daniel Murphy, now 24 years old, had a solid rookie season.  It was not as good as Jacobs’ rookie season.  However, we all understand that Murphy’s development was negatively impacted by his left field follies and mishandling by management. In 2010, he should be much more confident defensively at 1st base and thus positively impact his offensive performance.

The Mets anemic offense last year was not the responsibility of Daniel Murphy.  He was asked to do way to much for a rookie – to bat 3rd or cleanup, hit for power and drive in runs. The teams offensive woes were a result of David Wright’s fall off, and injuries to Beltran, Delgado and Reyes.  With the injured back healthy, and Bay replacing Delgado’s bat in the lineup, the Mets will not need to depend on Murphy as much.  He should be able to relax more, contribute and prosper.  His home run total will most likely not equal Jacobs’, but his BA, OBP, XBH, runs, RBI should equal or exceed Jacobs’.

I’m sure it comes as no surprise that I predict Daniel Murphy to be victorious against Mike Jacobs in the great spring training battle to determine the New York Mets 2010 starting first baseman.

I rest my case. I look forward to your comments.

Vote on our poll for Mets First Baseman at top of page!

I’m A Believer In The 8th Inning Sing-A-Long

Posted by Danny Krieger On February - 10 - 2010

For better or worse the Mets 2010 roster is pretty much set.  I remain cautiously optimistic and am looking forward to the season.  I so much want CitiField to be abuzz with enthusiasm this year.  In that respect, the 8th inning sing-a-long can go a long way towards energizing  the crowd on a hot summer’s night, and spur the Mets on to late inning comebacks.

So here goes.

I’m a big fan of the 8th inning sing-a -long.  But we need a new one that will rock CitiField and become a Mets tradition.

In 2006 we stood and laughed while the Curly Shuffle played on the big screen.  Very funny stuff.  The following year, 2007, Sweet Caroline, by Neil Diamond was the song of choice.  I have very fond memories of that song.  All summer, my 13 year old son and I were bonding over Mets baseball.  We would watch the big screen as the great Mets 2006 season was being retold.  The smiling, the dancing and the winning was making a night at Shea Stadium a special event and the place to be.  The best part was the nightly showing of Paul Lo Duca tagging out two LA Dodgers players in succession as the song’s words “we fill it up with only two” played.

Sweet Caroline could and would be only a one year wonder at Shea.  Too bad.  It’s been an 8th inning Red Sox Fenway Park tradition since 2002.  And copying their tradition was a no no.  While much of the 45,000+ Mets fans each night loved singing the song, those in the know, knew it couldn’t continue.  At least Mets management correctly reacted to fan pressure by pulling the song prior to the start of the 2008 season.

Before the 2008 season, a contest was held to choose the next song.   I’m a Believer sung by The Monkeys, and coincidentally composed by Neil Diamond, was the winner.  It didn’t have the same cachet.

It was all downhill in 2009 for both the 8th inning sing-a-long and the Mets play on the field.  Mets management chose  Meet the Mets.  This choice lacked originality and creativity.  It generated no excitement  and clearly was no help in motivating fans to root for an 8th inning comeback victory.

There are fans who are not in favor of even having an 8th inning sing-a-long.   They just want to watch baseball.  Please, there are at least three hours of baseball to watch.  The 8th inning, with the right song, is a time for fans to come together and rock CitiField.

I’d like you to listen to my number one choice for the 2010 8th inning sing-a-long, Forever Young by Rod Stewart.  Picture this song accompanied by video from 47 years of Mets history; from Stengel, to Seaver, to Gooden, to Piazza.  Fans will be roused out of their seats. The last line of Forever Young is “I’m right behind you win or lose”.  We certainly are when it comes to our Mets.

Please chime in with your own choice and a link to it so we can listen.  I’m know MMO readers will have strong opinions on this matter.  Maybe we can generate some excitement and present our top choice to the Mets marketing/promotion people.

Just remember to include the link to your song.  I’m sure there will be plenty of obnoxious comments.  As you know, I’m willing to take my share of abuse.

Batting 6th and Playing 1B, #28, Daniel Murphy

Posted by Danny Krieger On February - 6 - 2010

I am a passenger on the Daniel Murphy bandwagon.  I’ve been defending Daniel all winter and will continue doing so.  Whether you agree or not, see the writing on the wall.  Murphy will be the Mets starting 1st baseman this year.  My prediction is that Daniel will prove his detractors wrong and have a breakout season in 2010.

In January at the Mets seasons ticket holders get-together at CitiField I had the pleasure to meet Daniel Murphy.   He is a good looking kid with a great smile.  He’s also 6′3″ tall, weighs 210 lbs, and has a great ballplayers physique.  Hearing him speak, he comes across as a confident, intelligent 24 year old who is planning on making it big in the major leagues.

Murphy said that he has been working out four or five days a week; running and lifting weights.  Then he hits and takes ground balls with his brother who plays college ball at Jacksonville University (also Daniel’s alma mater).  He had been planning to play winter ball in the Dominican Republic, but the organization citing his heavy workload in 2010 (he played in 154 games), decided to keep him home.

Later that evening at a Q and A, he introduced himself by saying, “Hi  I’m Daniel Murphy, the Mets 1st baseman”.  The New York media does not seem to scare him.  He is a potential poster boy.  After hearing him answer many questions from the attending fans, I was impressed.  He is anything but brainless and heartless.

Let’s revisit just how much Daniel accomplished last year during difficult times.  He started out as the Mets everyday left fielder.  Defensively he was awful, botching several fly balls that should have been caught.  His hitting suffered too, likely due to his anxieties of playing left field.  After Carlos Delgado was lost for the season, Murphy was moved to 1st base, a position he had never played before.

As the season progressed he learned to play 1st base adequately, and as he felt more comfortable started hitting better too. When Reyes and Beltran also went down with injuries, Murphy was elevated to a much larger role than had been anticipated.  He was just a rookie at age 24, suddenly batting third or cleanup, with all eyes on him to be one of the main offensive producers of the team.  He wasn’t ready for such a role yet.

Murphy’s  average in May was an anemic .176.  But his splits, from first half to second half showed marked improvement.

  • Average: .248 to .282
  • Slugging: .364 to .485
  • OPS .677 to .798

Despite his rookie season’s hardships and anxieties, the end result was very successful and encouraging.  Overall he batted .266 with an OBP of .313.  He totaled 38 doubles, hit 12 home runs, scored 60 runs and drove in 63.

To his detractors, yes, he has to learn to be more patient and walk more often.  But I feel confident that with his work ethic at bat and in the field, he will significantly improve on his weaknesses.  I’m not predicting that he will be a gold glove 1st baseman, but I expect him to be an above average one.

Offensively Murphy has not nearly reached his potential.  He is tall, strong, and athletic, and is an extremely hard worker.  Daniel is not a singles hitter.  He is a line drive gap hitter who will develop more and more power as he matures and gains weight.  I look for him to hit close to .300 with 40 doubles, 15+  home runs and 80 RBI in 2010 if given the opportunity to play every day.

Let’s not worry about how Ike Davis will fit in next year.  If Murphy succeeds this season, the Mets have a great problem to solve next season.  Several years ago the Brewers traded Lyle Overbay so that Prince Fielder could move into the lineup.

In my opinion Murphy will be great in the clubhouse and can be a leader of this team. He has a future in New York with the Mets.

It’s hard not to root for Daniel Murphy.  He is a product of the farm system.  Just maybe Daniel Murphy will prove to be a burgeoning star.  And all the cynics will jump on the Murphy bandwagon.

2010 Outlook: Phillies – Mets Phans Phear A Phour-peat

Posted by Danny Krieger On February - 4 - 2010

Three straight NL East crowns and one World Series victory have catapulted the Philadelphia Phillies into Atlanta Braves territory as far as Mets rivalries go.  There is nothing worse than obnoxious Phillies fans coming up the Turnpike and invading Citi Field as the Phillies beat up on the Mets as they have done the past three years.

There is again reason to fear more of the same in 2010.  The Phillies have a lock on the NL Eastern Division crown; at least with respect to preseason polls and predictions.

The Phillies starting pitching is more solid than in recent years.  Their offense is explosive.  The bullpen seems to be the potential weak link.  Their payroll is at a record high and has become one of the highest in baseball.  Estimated 2010 payroll will begin at about $145M.  The rest of the league must hope that with a little ill luck and injury, the Phillies will be hard pressed to react financially to fill unforeseen holes in the armor.

Starting Pitching: The Phillies top four starters are stronger than in past years.  Roy Halladay is arguably the best pitcher in baseball.  #2, Cole Hamels is coming off a poor year but could have been affected by the 262 innings pitched in the Phillies championship year of 2008.  He should be better rested entering 2010.  #3 starter J.A. Happ, had a breakout season going 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA.  Joe Blanton in the #4 roll is an innings eater, having thrown at least 194 innings 5 years in a row.  Vying for the fifth spot will be Jamie Moyer, Jose Contreras, and Kyle Kendrick.

Relief Pitching: Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero will anchor the bullpen, however both Lidge and Romero are returning from off season elbow surgeries and could miss the beginning of the season.   Lidge was terrible last year and other than his flawless year in 2008 has not been good since 2005.   Look for Antonio Bastardo to be the wild card for the Phillies bullpen.  He broke in as a starter last year, got injured but returned for some effective World Series innings.  This winter he has been overpowering  in the Venezuelan Winter League with an ERA of 1.50 and 18 strikeouts in 14 innings.

Offense The starting lineup is the best in the National League.  Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth are the top five in the batting order.  Time will tell whether Raul Ibanez can return to his 2009 first half form or has begun his decline at age 37.  Otherwise, Carlos Ruiz returns as catcher after a breakout season and Placido Polanco replaces Pedro Feliz at 3rd base

Opinion: The Phillies starting pitching is much improved.  Relief pitching is very suspect.  The offense is the best in the N.L.  The bottom line is that the Phillies will win their fourth straight N.L. East crown.

Prediction: Wins – 94  Losses – 68

Like It Or Not The Mets Do Have A Plan

Posted by Danny Krieger On January - 31 - 2010

It’s quite possible that the Wilpons do have a plan.  It’s a long term plan and you might not like it because it doesn’t include trying to win at all costs in 2010.

Maybe the main concern that Mets management has is the health of their current star players.  Carlos Beltran is hurt and Jose Reyes is coming back from a major injury.  Carlos Delgado is not worth re-signing due to his age and chronic injuries.  Johan Santana is returning from elbow surgery.  John Maine is returning from shoulder surgery.  Oliver Perez is returning from knee surgery, plus he is a head case. Nobody including the Wilpons or the players know for sure when they’ll be back and if they will play at full strength.

Additionally, David Wright is coming off his worst year as a major leaguer.  Only time will tell whether he can regain his old form and possibly be the comeback player of the year.  Mike Pelfrey regressed last year too.  At least Wright and Pelfrey have been healthy.

Why spend money on injury plagued free agent pitchers or other mediocre pitchers if the backbones of the team will not perform up to expectations.  Ben Sheets, Chien Ming Wang, Erik Bedard, and John Smoltz, “if healthy”, only raise more questions.  Can Joel Pineiro succeed without Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan at his side.  Are Jason Marquis and Jon Garland enough of an upgrade if our current pitchers aren’t effective and healthy?

No free agent signing will make this ball club true contenders if our injured players do not come back and have successful years.  We need Reyes, Beltran, Santana and Wright to be like their old selves.  Otherwise we’d be mediocre at best regardless of who was signed.

One proof that the Mets are hedging their bets in 2010 is that they have not made any trades that involve their minor leaguers.  Our upcoming stars, Fernando Martinez, Jerry Mejia, Ike Davis, Josh Thole and others have not even been the subject of trade rumors this off season.  That is, unless you count rumors originated on blogs.

The second piece of evidence that this dysfunctional behavior by ownership is part of a grand plan is truly an amazin’ one because it hits directly in the pocketbooks of the Wilpons.  Ownership seems totally unconcerned about decreased ticket sales.  This is an unheard of strategy by the Wilpons.  Every season the Mets make a big splash by December so that when that letter goes out to season’s ticket holders, a positive spin can be put on the upcoming season.

Season’s ticket sales are reportedly way down.  Many fans have vowed not to support the team financially.  But there has been no panic in the front office.  There doesn’t seem to be a heir of desperation.  No attempt to keep up or catch up to the Yankees.  No one could accuse the Mets of risky, fruitless spending.

The Wilpons and Minaya have not been apologizing to fans for this winter’s failures.  Fred, Jeff and Omar have said nary a word.  They even have the courage to sign Fernando Tatis and “show interest” in Josh Fogg when everyone is clamoring for a major signing.  Could the Wilpons be of sound mind to put a long term strategy in place, even at the expense of short term profits? They already take so much heat from fans and the press that this new reason for criticism shouldn’t matter.

Nobody can claim that the Wilpons haven’t spent money on this franchise.  Most would postulate that it has not been spent wisely.  The economy and the Wilpons questionable financial status might indeed be the impetus for this 180 degree reversal of their approach to running the franchise.

I’m not commending or condemning this proposed new strategy.  I’m just offering a possible explanation for concerned and confused Mets fans who only see the answer as blaming our clueless owners and begging them to sell the franchise.

The Mets plan for this 2010 season might not be a bad one.  It is realistic and practical.  It does not involve throwing money and the farm system away.  The grand design is to look towards 2011 and beyond. What’s difficult for Mets fans to accept is that our psyches and hearts are deflated even before the season has begun.  But it also doesn’t create false hopes and expectations for this season.  Too bad the Wilpons couldn’t have been honest and straight forward about their intentions.

In any case, if the Mets stars do have comeback seasons, the Mets are a competitive team.  And if they stay in the race through July, the strategy might change and the Mets might be buyers at the trade deadline.  Let’s hope so.  Otherwise, our spanking new Citifield will turn into a morgue.  Only the most faithful will be there and in mourning.

On the bright side, there will be no waiting at the Shake Shack.

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