2008 New York Mets: The Best Team In Baseball?
I normally don’t put too much stock into baseball predictions. They’re fun to make as a fan, but most of the time completely inaccurate. That’s the beauty of the game of baseball; there are unlimited things that can happen during the course of a day, a week, a month or a year that could change the outcome of a season.
There are a number of ways to mathematically “predict” how a team or a player will do in a season. Sabermetricians have most commonly used the Pythagorean formula or the PECOTA Algorithm to do so. Though nothing can replace the actual playing of the game, these mathematical calculations are pretty close to accurate, more often than not. They’re definitely more precise than my own predictions.
When The Mets were predicted to finish the 2007 season with a record of 87-75, I thought the sabermetricians had made an error. At the time, I couldn’t see the Mets finishing the season with less than 92 wins. Well, if it wasn’t for that September slide, I would have been right, but it turns out that the experts knew what they were doing. The Mets finished at 88-74. Pretty close.
This year, the Mets have been predicted to finish the 2008 season with a record of 96-66, by the web site www.baseballprospectus.com. And even better; the Braves are predicted to finish 2nd…10 games behind us (with the Phillies a distant 3rd at 12 back!)
There are many writers, sabermetricians, baseball analysts and fans who believe that the Mets are the best team in baseball (on paper, at least.) With the addition of Santana, the unlimited potential of young players like Wright, Reyes, Maine and Perez, and the haunting memory of last September to motivate them, the New York Mets might just have found something special again this year; something similar to the magic they had in 2006 (if everything comes together and clicks like I’m hoping it will.)
Carlos Beltran certainly thinks the Mets are the best team in the National League East. Now hopefully he’ll follow up his “team to beat” speech with an MVP season (just like Jimmy Rollins did last year,) and make the Mets into the best team in the game!
Comments
Saber- what? Pythag-huh?;)
I agree Tessa, while it is nice to predict and talk trash it is ultimately in the players hands.Anything can happen...for goodness sake the ROCKIES went to the series!!!(Come on...who ever thought they would?)LOL
Posted by: Adam Baker | February 18, 2008 11:52 PM
Well that all sounds great. But with an old sluggish 1st baseman, an old 2nd baseman with bad legs, a .230 hitting catcher, a shortstop who may not bounce back from last year's horrible 2nd half, an old injury prone left fielder, and a huge question mark in right field, i wouldnt call them the best team in baseball just yet. Although, I do have high hopes for their pitching staff if maine and perez play like they did in 07.
Posted by: Anthony | February 18, 2008 11:57 PM
Nobody can lay claim to being the best besides the Red Sox(much as I hate saying it.). They are the only ones who were left standing at the end. Until someone proves different they are still the champs. The beauty of spring is that everyone is undefeated...
All teams have question marks...let the games begin!;)
Posted by: Adam Baker | February 19, 2008 12:09 AM
Tessa (MetsGal) WOW great blog very well done
Posted by: Christian (MetsMan) | February 19, 2008 01:16 PM
i haven't been this excited about a season in a very long time. this season, as young as it is, feels completely different from last season to me. the mets just know they're the team to beat, and it seems like the other teams know too, hence j-rolls continued silence. i can't wait, i can't wait, i can't wait!
Posted by: nate | February 19, 2008 01:59 PM
Anthony - I hope you took your happy pills today, you are very depressing.
The 2nd baseman is hardly old and he had both his knees fixed in the off season and if he plays half as hard as he did with bad knees we are in GREAT shape.
1st Baseman - the reports are he's in great shape, far beyond last year, and has been working hard in the off season especially with fundamentals of the game.
The catcher doesn't have to be a .300 hitter if he's helping the pitchers out and has great D.
Can the shortstop bounce back? Have you heard of Jose Reyes - he's going to be GREAT. He had a bad September again because the horse isn't quite buried, had it been April when David Wright had his slump this wouldn't even be discussed right now.
I heard Carlos' interview, it was HARDLY the huge proclamation the media is making it out to be (shocking I know).
I think we are in great shape, keep their heads in the game and so far it seems from interviews they have the right thought process.
Geez - if I thought like Anthony everyday it would be all I could do to not stick a needle in my eyes. GEEZ
Have your ever heard of Tug McGraw?
Posted by: Kate | February 19, 2008 04:11 PM
I guess some of us Mets fans still find it hard to be overly excited given our rocky past. I'm just glad we are beyond the days when we would go into games and boo.(Wags beware) When Shea is loud it is electric. Its enough to pull anyone out of any slump; J-O-S-E
I would love this year to DOMINATE our division and bring a ring to Shea. With the arsenal we have, not everyone has to be hott all the time.
Posted by: Manolo Bleu | February 19, 2008 05:45 PM
With the addition of Johan Santana (replacing Tom Glavine 13-8 ERA 4.45) and Pedro Martinez in the rotation for a full year (replacing Mike Pelfrey 3-8 ERA 5.57), a 96 win season should be easily in reach if everybody else does about the same as 2007.
If Delgado puts up numbers like any of his since 2000, the Met club record of 108 is in serious jeopardy.
Posted by: Vern | February 20, 2008 12:42 AM
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Posted by: CodeRoutef | February 20, 2008 12:56 AM