There have been many misconceived notions regarding how to conduct a productive balanced lineup. In what spots are player’s specific skills most suitable for the team? What spot will his strength be magnified and his weakness less exposed? Many fans or those in the industry have different various opinions regarding this topic. Lineups are not just thrown together, each spot has a different mind set and different responsibilities even one misplaced spot can unravel the lineup and thus prevent the team from producing at their best.
On December 21st in part 1, I broke down three studies that show protection is a myth. The notion that a batter will receive better pitches to hit if there is a batter with equal or better hitting skills batting behind is false, in fact studies have shown it may actually hurt a batters production.
Just to summarize some of the results of these studies,
Batters with better protection batted 4-5 points lower as apposed to when they had little to no protection.
While the total amount of singles increased when a batter had protection, doubles triples and homerun totals showed a drastic drop off.
Pitchers velocity and breaking action increased when they faced a batter who had protection behind him. In other words pitches where harder to hit not easier.
So why has this myth been passed down for decades yet has no statistical backing? The truth is this is one of several assumptions that where never proven, yet where passed down from generation to generation as fact just because it seemed to make sense. In fact this idea of protection is among the two biggest misconceived theories in the history of the sport. So if protection is a myth, in what situations do batters actually receive better pitches to hit? In fact the protection theory is the exact opposite of reality. Batters are more productive when runners are on base, especially if those runners have speed. Take for example a power pitcher with Reyes on 1B. A power pitcher loses velocity when he has to pitch from the stretch as apposed to the windup, coupled with the fact that he is more likely to throw a fastball to give his catcher a better opportunity to throw out the runner on a steal attempt, thus a batter will then receive fat pitches to hit.
I would love to hear all of your opinions. Here is my take.
#1 – In a leadoff hitter I look for two things, speed and his ability to get on base. I do not want my leadoff hitter to hit for any power whatsoever because then he is taking away from the overall offensive attack of the batters behind him.
#2 – In the two spot I’m looking for someone who can handle the bat and work deep counts. A solid contact hitter, good hit and run option and good bunter. High OBP and speed would be an added bonus but are not majorly important.
#3 – In a three hitter I want a line drive hitter who will bat .300 + with solid contact and high OBP. Your 3rd best power hitter after the 4th and 5th batters. Homerun totals from your 3 hitter are not majorly important, racking up the doubles, getting on base and putting the ball in play are vital for a solid #3 hitter. David Wright minus the k’s is a typical #3 hitter, Keith Hernandez and John Olerud where exactly what you look for in a #3 hitter.
#4 – The cleanup hitter is just what the name says, he cleans up, he is your team’s best power hitter, 40+ HR potential, 100+ RBI’s.
#5 – Your 2nd best power hitter, good for 30+ HR and 85+ RBI’s.
#6 – A 6th hitter will vary greatly from team to team, manager to manager and fan to fan. In most cases a #6 hitter fits the Mike Cameron type player, power, low average and high k’s. However IMO I look for someone who can make good contact. In many cases your 5th hitter or even your 4th hitter will be in scoring position when your 6th hitter comes up. If you 6th hitter is prone to a low average and high strikeout numbers your team will often end up stranding the runners. Thus I want a hitter who can put the ball in play, especially if there are less then 2 outs. Brian Schneider would be a much better fit in this spot then batting 8th, since he is a solid contact hitter. This spot is ideal for a Paul Loduca or Frank Catalanotto type hitter.
#7 – My opinion in this spot is drastically different then most people. Many feel the teams worst hitter should bat 8th, which is my opinion is a major mistake. For the 7th spot I go one of two ways. If your 6th hitter fits the Mike Cameron type then I want my #7 hitter to be basically a 2nd leadoff hitter, someone with speed and a high OBP. If your worst hitter aka a Cameron type hits 6th then in many occasions the bases will be empty when the 7th spot comes up, thus the best way to try to manufacture a run. If your number 6 hitter fits the mold of a LoDuca or Catalanotto then I put my worst offensive player in this spot.
#8 – Almost everyone believes that the worst hitter should bat 8th, which is a vital mistake, in fact IMO it’s the single biggest strategical error any manager can make. Your 8th hitter plays a major role that can have a significant affect on the outcome of game. In 2006 many with Valentin hitting 8th many people thought sure he bats around .230 - .240 but about once every 16-20 AB’s he’ll get a hold of one and heck any occasional HR by your 8th hitter is a bonus right, WRONG! Valentin was and is one of the worst situational hitters in the game. That solo HR he will hit once a week or so does not make up for the many times he fails to do the little things. The number of times he struck out or popped up with men on base was astronomical. Take for a example a #2 hitter, a hitter who can work deep counts, can get on base and can handle the bat well such as bunting, going to opposite way and so on. Now take these situations…
Situation 1 – It’s the 5th inning the game is tied at 1 with two outs and your 8th hitter is up. What is the single most important thing he must do? Do whatever it takes to get on base in order to clear the pitchers spot. In many occasions the opposition will walk to 8th hitter which to be honest is a huge favor they are giving you. Who would you trust more to get on base in this situation, a typical #2 hitter or someone like Valentin? Obviously a typical #2 hitter. Now if the pitcher can manage to get on base you have two men on for your leadoff hitter and a potential opportunity to score a run, a situation that a hitter like Valentin cost us time and time and time again.
Situation 2 – You have a runner on 1st and less then two outs with your 8th hitter up. Would you be willing to try an hit and run with Valentin or someone like him who is often known to strike out or pop up often? Of course not, a batter like him would greatly decrease the likelihood of scoring in that inning and gives the manager less options to consider. However with a typical #2 type hitter you would be more confident in attempting a hit and run and more likely of succeeding in doing so. The with runners on the corners the pitcher can but the 8th hitter to 2nd of even consider a squeeze play.
Situation 3 – It’s the 8th inning, your down by 2 runs. You have runners on 1st and 2nd with less then 2 outs. Your 8th hitter comes up and your top pinch hitter is on deck. Would you trust Valentin or someone like him to get a bunt down, I don’t think so.
So what would your ideal lineup be? What type of skills are you looking for in each spot? Opinions pleas, fire away…..