2007 Mets Preview: The Bullpen
This is the second in a series of 5 weekly installments previewing the 2007 New York Mets. Each Thursday until Spring Training I will preview one of these five team components: Infield, Bullpen, Outfield, Catcher & Bench and finally Starting Pitching.
The Mets bullpen in 2006 may go down as probably the best in the team's history. Despite it's share of injuries and hardships throughout the year they always managed to find a way to get the job done whenever it mattered most. Last year the Mets' bullpen was the best in the National League and maybe even all of baseball. They led the National League with an ERA of 3.25 while holding opposing hitters to a stingy .239 Batting Average which also happened to be the best BAA in the majors. They were also second in the majors with 485 strikeouts and second in the National League in saves with 43. To sum it up... they were absolutely dominating!
So why change anything, right? Unfortunately due to economic restraints and pressures, the Mets have taken a few hits this offseason. Gone are some of last years heroes like Chad Bradford, Roberto Hernandez and Darren Oliver as well as some of the younger up and coming players like Royce Ring, Henry Owens and Heath Bell. There's a lot of new faces in 2007 and although guys like Bradford and Oliver will be missed, the bullpen looks to be solid once again for the New York Mets this season.
The bullpen was once the place where you kept your worst pitchers when they lost their effectiveness, but that's definitely not the case any more. Over the past 10 years, major league bullpens have rapidly evolved into a group of highly specialized pitchers that are expected to make their impact during key strategic moments during a game. Today the bullpen is one of the most vital components of a team's success. With the inability of most starting pitchers to go past 6 innings or 100 pitches, it's imperative for a team to have a capable end game strategy, and it all begins with a great bullpen. Last year the Mets carried 7 pitchers in their bullpen for most of the season and I would expect that will not change in 2007. So let's take a look at how the Mets shape up going into the 2007 season.
Lefty & Righty Specialists - This season you I would expect to see the newly acquired Scott Schoenweis take over as the Mets left-handed specialist. Over the last two seasons he has been very effective against left-handers, holding them to a .209 average and allowing just 1 home run in 201 at-bats. His ability to hold left-handed hitters in check will come in handy in a division that is loaded with some of the best power hitters in the league. I was kind of skeptical about the size and the length of the contract Schoenweis signed, but after a reviewing his stats and his splits, I was surprised to learn how effective he could be when used in certain roles. I believe that he will thrive in his role as a lefty specialist, and may even be counted on as a pitcher who can give you an inning or two if needed. By the middle of next season we may look back at this signing as one of the off-season's most significant pickups.
The role of right-handed specialist will probably go to Duaner Sanchez, who will be returning from shoulder surgery. Duaner Sanchez was absolutely overpowering before going down to an injury he sustained in that ill-fated cab ride. He had a 5-1 record with a 2.60 ERA in 49 appearances and allowed just 43 hits and 24 walks in 55 1/3 innings while striking out 44. He has an arsenal that includes 2 quality fastballs, a slider, a curve, and one of the best change-ups in the league. I love his passion for the game and his ability to rally the team when he takes the mound. He is as poised and as polished as they come and I expect him to have a big year in 2007 and eventually resume his role as the teams setup man should the Mets trade Aaron Heilman or put him in the rotation.
If by chance Duaner is not ready to open the season, look for hard-throwing righty, Ambiorix Burgos to fill the role until Sanchez gets back. Burgos has a power arm that can top 100 MPH on the radar gun and is also quite effective on right-handed hitters. He has great stuff but has yet to show that he can use it with any consistency. He was thrust into the closers role last season for the Royals and was clearly not up for the challenge as he blew 40% of his save opportunities. The 23 year old has enormous potential and if he can learn to control his fastball, he may eventually become a big asset for the Mets in the very near future. Grade: A-
Short/Long Relievers - Pedro Feliciano will be the man that Willie Randolph will look for in the 7th inning this season. Feliciano pitched brilliantly for the New York Mets last season and finished the year with a 7-2 record and a dazzling 2.09 ERA. There were times last year where he was absolutely unhittable and could completely shutdown opposing offenses. The 30 year old left-hander initially began the season facing mostly left-handed hitters but soon showed the Mets he was somewhat effective against right-handed hitters as well. Pedro Feliciano is one of the better relievers in the league and will be a big part of the Mets Bullpen in 2007.
Guillermo Mota may also see some time as a short reliever in the later innings when he returns from his 50 game suspension for violating baseball's steroid policy. I was actually hoping the Mets would steer clear of Mota after details of his steroid use began to surface and I never expected the Mets to offer him the 2 year deal that he received. When Mota first joined the Mets last year in a late season trade with the Cleveland Indians, it appeared that he had put his bad season behind him and actually became a very effective late inning option for Willie Randolph. His fastball was suddenly 5-7 MPH faster on the radar gun and many believed that Rick Peterson had helped him find his former glory. However, that was not the case and now the question is which Guillermo Mota will show up in 2007? The pitcher who couldn't get anybody out while he was with Cleveland, or the pitcher who dominated in August and September with a 1.08 ERA? I guess the answer lies somewhere in between which means you can expect an ERA of about 4.50.
Who the Mets will use in long relief is still to be determined, but my gut feeling tells me that ultimately it will come down to Dave Williams, Juan Padilla, Jorge Sosa and Jon Adkins. Last season, Darren Oliver excelled in long relief and transformed himself from a washed up starting pitcher into a formidable relief pitcher. The Mets are hoping that they could pull the same rabbit out of the hat in 2007 with Dave Williams or Jorge Sosa, but I just don't see it. I think Dave Williams had a few good moments last season, but lets face it he finished the season with a 6.52 ERA after posting a 5.59 ERA in 2005. Those numbers are a recipe for disaster and who's to say he can make the transition from a starter to reliever?
Jorge Sosa is sort of a different story, in 2005 he had a dominant season going 13-3 with a 2.55 ERA for the Atlanta Braves. In 2006 he took a huge step backwards and struggled along the way to a 3-11 record and a disappointing 5.42 ERA. He is 29 and the Mets are hoping he can revert back to his 2005 form, but time is running out on Sosa and he will have to prove he is up for the challenge in Spring Training.
Jon Adkins was acquired last month from the San Diego Padres and is coming off a nice year where he had a 3.98 ERA despite a poor strikeout to walk ratio. Despite pitching in a pitchers park, he was much better on the road with a 2.51 ERA in 28 innings pitched. He does not overpower anyone and is most successful when he keeps the ball down and entices hitters to ground out.
Juan Padilla will try to comeback after missing the entire 2006 season due to elbow surgery. In 2005 he opened up some eyes in the organization after a season where he went 3-1 with a 1.49 ERA. However, his strikeout to walk ratio would suggest that he was very lucky and not very dominant. In 36 innings he allowed 24 hits while walking 13 and striking out 17 batters. Grade: C+
Setup Man - Despite his desire to be a starting pitcher, Aaron Heilman has firmly established himself as one of the best setup men in the National League. Last season he pitched 87 innings while compiling an ERA of 3.62 and a WHIP of 1.16. He fanned 73 batters while walking only 28 and had a .231 opposing batting average against both left-handed and right-handed hitters. The Mets have absolutely no intention of taking him out of the setup role as long as he keeps putting up numbers like this. There has been much talk of him being traded, but I dont see that happening unless the mets are sure Duaner Sanchez is completely recovered from shoulder surgery. Grade: A
Closer - Billy Wagner was everything Met fans could have ever hoped for in his first season in New York. In 2006 Wagner showed why he is still one of the elite closers in the game by pitching one of his best seasons ever after getting off to a shaky start. He finished with a stellar season where he saved 40 games with a sparkling 2.24 ERA. He had his highest strikeout rate since 1999, striking out 94 batters and walking only 21 in 72 innings pitched. At age 35 he is still one of the most dominant closers in the game and is the main reason the Mets bullpen was the best in the National League last season. Grade: A+
Bullpen Overall Grade: A-
