I only was in the car long enough to hear his opening monologue, but you know what? He was dead on.

Look, Valdespin is a jerk – he’s an immature bench player who constantly finds himself on the wrong side of the headlines. But he’s our immature bench player.

It’s not about race, it’s not about having it out for a kid who doesn’t deserve it – it’s about the entire team being an utter disaster. If somebody wants to inject race into this issue, they are missing the point and doing a disservice to anybody who has ever dealt with real race issues.

You know, everybody wants to pin the failure on Sandy. That’s fine, everybody who hates him will always hate him. But the truth is, Sandy Alderson cannot magically turn Ike Davis, Jon Niese and Lucas Duda into the players we all thought they’d be. He cannot turn Ruben Tejada into a kid who can handle big league pitching when pre-Jose Reyes, Tejada was pegged as the future 2B. So you cannot even use the Reyes dismissal as an excuse. The players have to perform.

I’m sorry but guys like them mean more to the failure of the Mets than guys like Collin Cowgill or Anthony Recker.

The “plan” was that next year could be a big turning point, but that can’t be true when the guys you are counting on are playing in various level of mediocrity. Ike Davis is an embarrassment. He’s not a star 1B, he’s barely a big league 1B and that changes everything. Spare me this idea that come June he’s going to show up again. Too little too late.

Jon Niese is proving he’s a #2 on a bad team, #3 on a good one – and Duda is proving he truly is one dimensional.

You pair that with the fact Terry Collins who I do like mind you, is more of a minor league instructor than a big league manager. His handling of Valdespin was a “teaching moment.” At this level, the education should be complete. The best example of this is – when David Wright would have gotten beaned last year, Collins wouldn’t let him go out there. He said he knew he’d get hit and so he took him out. He did the reverse with Valdespin. Not because Valdespin is Dominican – because he thinks its his job in the major leagues to educate Valdespin and he forgot that this is a big league club and not a collection of kids.

I think Valdespin is an over hyped bench player, but it’s my job as a fan to think that and shake my head at his antics. It’s not the Manager’s or his teammates job.

Who is the most liked Met player in the clubhouse? I truly don’t know – but lets just say it’s Justin Turner. What if the Pirates decided rather than plunk Valdespin, they were going to hit Turner? What would the Mets players have done? Turn and wag a finger at Valdespin or react to the Pirates? In the major leagues when you want to get your point across to a player, you bench him and talk to him. You don’t air your dirty laundry and you certainly don’t send him out to get beaned.

The screams are becoming louder than Wally Backman needs to be the Manager. I love Wally Backman – he’s my favorite all time player because he was my first favorite player. But he is not the guy for this team. The Mets need an outsider. They need somebody who hasn’t been here, who hasn’t been a part of this dark cloud that has hung over the franchise for the last 7 years. I do not know who that is yet. Part of me is hoping that Mike Scioscia is the guy, and the other has me imagining what would happen if Don Mattingly became available.

NL East At A Glance

Miami Marlins: The team that essentially alienated whatever fan base they thought they had looks like an obvious 5^th place team in this division. They do however have the best player in the division in Giancarlo Stanton. No matter what the rumors say, I still think Giancarlo is a Marlin for a very long time. If I’m wrong, I hope I’m apologizing on my way to buy a Giancarlo Mets jersey. They still have some talent in this lineup around Giancarlo but they are also relying on fairly older players like Juan Pierre and Placido Polanco to be every day players and I don’t know if that is realistic. The Marlins will push Adeiny Hechavarria to the big leagues. They acquired him in the major Toronto swap, and he is known for his defense but can his bat hang in the bigs? The pitching really is where this team is going to get killed. Mike Redmond is going to have to be very creative with how he manages this staff. Ricky Nolasco is their most reliable starter and he’s well, Ricky Nolasco. Steve Cishek is a nice reliever, and while I do not think he’s a true closer – he’s still going to win the Marlins a lot of close games. Overall though, it’s hard to imagine this being anything more than 72 wins for the Marlins.

Philadelphia Phillies: I have been a big critic of Ruben Amaro Jr’s, and until I actually his roster do something, I always will be. For all the jokes the Mets outfield get, the Phillies aren’t really that much better (if at all). The Phillies are going all in again with their aging core of Rollins, Utley and Howard. They added Michael Young who is coming off a horrendous 2012 for Texas. Young is expected to be their full time 3B, and he hasn’t done that since 2010, and he wasn’t very good at it. Their lineup has name recognition, there’s no denying that. However, if Howard and Utley are not MVP candidates, then their lineup doesn’t scare me one bit. The rotation conversation of course starts and ends with Hamels, Halladay and Lee. You know, for all the talk about them being the best rotation ever, they sure haven’t done anything to prove it. This team hasn’t won a World Series with Halladay and Lee together, and I don’t think they ever will. The reason I am picking them fourth has less to do with my faith in the Mets and more in a sense that I think Philadelphia will sell if things do not look promising. They gave us a glimpse of it last year, and I think if they can get some young talent back, we could see a key veteran on the move.

New York Mets: Today as I write this, the Mets announced about two hours ago that Johan Santana likely will miss the entire season. I have to be honest here. That doesn’t change a thing. It really doesn’t  When Mets fans thought about Santana in 2013 it always started with “if healthy.” The Mets are full of players who are at a point in their careers where it is now or never. Players like Duda, Parnell and even Ike need to show that they can put together an entire season with quality performance. Many people will suggest that the offense is the key, but I disagree. I think it’s the bullpen. I think the Mets have enough talent to hang with most anybody in the NL if they play to their potential. I think the bullpen is what will make or break that. Is Bobby Parnell ready to take a step toward becoming a big league closer? Can Scott Atchison rebound from his injury and be the guy we hoped Ramon Ramirez would be? Then of course there is all the youth in the bullpen – what will we see from them? The most unpredictable aspect of a major league roster in my opinion is the major difference maker for the 2013 Mets.

Washington Nationals: Obviously I like taking risks with my predictions. The Nationals are clearly the favorite, so what fun is it to pick them? Look, you can’t deny their talent. But, I can question whether or not everything will go their way. There really isn’t anything wrong with their lineup to be honest. I think they have a nice mixture of power, some speed, and players who continue to rise like Ian Desmond and Bryce Harper. The rotation is lead by Stephen Strasburg, but let’s not forget Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez brings the Nationals a reliable starter, while Strasburg gives them a fragile starter. I still firmly believe Strasburg will not have a long career – and while I agree with the Nationals handling of Strasburg last year, I think it will haunt them. Dan Haren, Jordan Zimmerman and Ross Detwiler are a big reason for this team’s expected success. When the Nats signed Rafael Soriano, I was pretty critical of it. I don’t like how they tossed their young closer Drew Storen aside after a rough playoff outing. I think they will regret that decision because I do not believe Rafael Soriano is a big game closer, and Storen could be one day.

Atlanta Braves: There is a lot of pressure on this team to prove that getting to the playoffs is only a piece of the puzzle, and not the only goal. When you look at the Braves infield, it’s not very impressive. Obviously McCann is one of the best catchers in the game, but if Freddie Freeman doesn’t take his game to the next level, McCann may be the only run producer in the entire infield. The outfield is obviously the major strength of this lineup. The Upton brothers will likely have more fun than any two players in the sport, and if Jason Heyward who is still just 23 years old can take a step toward being a top offensive player, this outfield will be one of the best in baseball for sure. Their rotation is still lead by Tim Hudson who never seems to age, but really the ace of this staff is Kris Medlen. The Braves have a lot of faith in Medlen, and if he can take the top spot in this rotation they could be really dangerous. The rest of the rotation has good but not great talent. Paul Maholm has averaged 30 starts a year since 2006. That’s not very easy in reality. Their bullpen is obviously their strength. They have the best relief pitcher in the game not named Mariano (Craig Kimbrel), and they have as good of a lights out 7^th-8^th inning combo as you can get with Eric O’Flaherty and Jonny Venters, plus Jordan Walden joins the bullpen which just adds to the amazing depth they have.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Nationals, Braves, Mets, Phillies, Marlins
Jessep: Braves, Nationals, Mets, Phillies, Marlins
Joe D: Nationals, Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Denard Span, Washington
Jessep: Marlon Byrd, NY Mets
Joe D: Drew Storen, Washington

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Zack Wheeler, NY Mets
Jessep: Travis d’Arnaud, NY Mets
Joe D: Zack Wheeler, NY Mets

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: Stephen Strasburg, Washington
Jessep: Kris Medlen, Atlanta
Joe D: Stephen Strasburg, Washington

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Bryce Harper, Washington
Jessep: Ike Davis, NY Mets
Joe D: Giancarlo Stanton, Miami

NL Central At A Glance

Chicago Cubs: If you think it can’t get worse than where the Mets were – take a look at the Cubs. However, they are getting to a point of respectability. Jeff Samardzija went from that guy who played tight end for Notre Dame to a potential ace. He has some serious talent, but is he an ace for a good team or does he just happened to be the best pitcher on a bad team? There’s really no denying that the Cubs are relying on Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo to take them to the top in the future. Are they for real? They are still pretty young, but this year is a huge year for them. Can Castro turn the corner, and can Rizzo burst out onto the scene? The most exciting closer in baseball is Carlos Marmol. Now, remember I said “exciting.” He’s exciting because you never really know what you’re going to get, and if most Cubs fans get what they want – Marmol will be heading out of Chicago before July 31st.

Milwaukee Brewers:: When I saw the Brewers agreed with Kyle Lohse, I thought to myself, “self, will this move matter?” The answer is no. He will provide some quality innings, there’s no doubt about that but I am sensing the calm before the storm for Milwaukee. I do not think Major League Baseball is going to let this Miami-PED scandal die without exhausting every possible Ryan Braun connection. I believe Braun will get suspended during this season, and if that happens – it will solidify their 4th place finish for me. Aramis Ramirez is a player that will suffer from anything that happens to Braun if my prediction comes through. He’s not getting any younger, and I think he’s going to start declining.

Pittsburgh Pirates:: Their offseason changes really aren’t too impactful if you ask me. If Liriano stays healthy, then obviously he can make a huge difference but that is a huge “if.” The chip that was on A.J. Burnett’s shoulder could be gone, and I wonder if that will have a negative effect on his performance? I am a big James McDonald fan. In 29 starts he threw 171 innings, gave up 147 hits and struck out 151. His issue has been the long ball. He gave up 21 HR, and that has held him back. If he lessens the mistakes, and keeps the ball inside PNC – he could become an All-Star. This team really centers around Andrew McCutchen and his rising star quality. Can he take the next step to becoming an elite player in the game or will he just be a nice player on an average team? Can he take Pittsburgh to the next level?

St. Louis Cardinals:: No matter how many things go wrong for this team, they always seem to be in the mix. Recently, Jason Motte hit the DL with an elbow issue but let’s be serious, they always find a way to bounce back. They have Mitchell Boggs who will step in, but for all we know there is a kid in their system who will get a shot and be lights out. There are two players on this roster I really am excited to watch. Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter. We’ll start with Carpenter. To me, he is what we all want Daniel Murphy to be. He, along with guys like Ben Zobrist are becoming these versatile players that everybody loves to watch. Carpenter will be their second basemen after serving in the utility role last year. Allen Craig to me is amazing because he takes over for Pujols, and if he stays healthy he can be one of the elite power hitters in the game. The outfield is lead by Holliday and Beltran, and I am a tad curious to see how Beltran does this year. His second half was actually pretty terrible last year, was that just a slump or is he breaking down? Adam Wainwright just cashed in a major payday, so now the pressure is on for him to be a Cy Young contender.

Cincinnati Reds:: You’re probably not going to find a more complete team in baseball than the Reds. They aren’t as star driven as some other teams, but I think they are the most talented top to bottom. The biggest concern I have here is the potential for ruining Aroldis Chapman. I get the value of a starting pitcher, but if I had to ask the Reds management one question this is what I’d ask. After 1997, would you have tried to convert Mariano Rivera to a starter if you were the Yankees? That’s how good Chapman can be. And while I do think a closer can be overrated, they aren’t overrated when they are special. As of now, the Reds say he is back to the bullpen, but will they hit the panic button if they have an injury in the rotation? The Reds were very fortunate and very healthy in the rotation last year, are the baseball Gods that kind in consecutive years? They don’t have a Cy Young winner in the mix, but they have 4 extremely solid starters and one in Arroyo whom you never know what you’ll get. Their lineup has everything you need, they have some speed, power, and an ability to exhaust the opposition. I hate the phrase “if healthy,” because I think it applies to everybody – but seriously, if healthy they will be the number 1 seed in the National League.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates, Cubs
Jessep: Reds, Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs
Joe D: Cardinals, Reds, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Allen Craig, St. Louis
Jessep: Matt Carpenter , St. Louis
Joe D: Anthony Rizzo, Chicago  

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Oscar Taveras, St. Louis
Jessep: Shelby Miller, St. Louis
Joe D: Oscar Taveras, St. Louis

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis
Jessep: Johnny Cueto, St. Louis
Joe D: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
Jessep: Joey Votto, Cincinnati
Joe D: Joey Votto, Cincinnati

Next up will be the NL East.

NL West At A Glance

Arizona Diamondbacks: The D’Backs made tough decisions this off-season  They decided to build their roster based on their team concept, and not based on just overall talent. Some think Justin Upton was the move that proved their concept, but I think it was sending Trevor Bauer to Cleveland. Kevin Towers and Kirk Gibson have an idea of what they want this team to look and act like, and they apparently did not fit that mold. Miguel Montero is one of the best and most underrated players in the sport, and he’s surrounded by a lot more underrated talents. Martin Prado, Aaron Hill and Paul Goldschmidt are all players you never talk about but should. One thing that hurts though, rookie Adam Eaton who excelled in twenty games last year was supposed to be their starting CF this year is now out for about 8 weeks with a strained UCL. Their rotation is young but talented. They are lead by Ian Kennedy and Wade Miley but also have Brandon McCarthy and Randall Delgado whom they acquired in the Upton deal. I am really curious to see what Heath Bell does for this team. If he can revive his career then he and J.J. Putz could be a lights out combination.

San Francisco Giants: The Giants are your defending champions, and just like in 2011, I’m predicting they will finish second in the NL West following their title. The Giants didn’t really improve on anything, and sure the reply “they won it all,” is valid, it can still be argued they needed to improve. Offensively they are very weak, and unless Tim Lincecum returns to Cy Young form, this team cannot boast a dominating staff that will offset the lack of run support. I will believe the 2012 Angel Pagan was the real thing, when and if I see it in 2013. Buster Posey, and Pablo Sandoval provide the run support for the champs, and while I’d love to have them both on most teams, I don’t think they can carry an offense. The Giants chose to not offer Lincecum a longterm deal for a reason, and I think we started to see why last year. Madison Bumgarner and Cain are the real deal, but if Vogelsong, Lincecum and Zito struggle as I expect – there will be a repeat for San Francisco, just not the one they were hoping for.

San Diego Padres: The Pads were one of the best second half teams in 2012. Manager Bud Black seems to be getting the most out of his young roster, and I expect it to get a little better in 2013. First baseman Yonder Alonso needs to turn the corner though and become the complimentary corner player to Chase Headley. Speaking of Headley, is he the real deal after an MVP caliber season or was it a fluke? The Padres are just joining the masses who decided their park is “too” pitching friendly. So how will that help or hurt this team? Only time will tell, but I like their under the radar roster and I think they can squeak by in the NL West to get to third place.

Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers are the sexy pick in this division, which is exactly why I’m predicting them 4th. They went out and grabbed Zack Greinke and Korean free agent Hyun-Jin Ryu to solidify their rotation. During the 2012 season, they also added Hanley Ramirez (now out for 8 weeks), Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett. A-Gone is a superstar, and if he can take the reins and keep players like Beckett and Ramirez in check, things might be better than I expect. To take it a step further, if Matt Kemp and Adrian Gonzalez stay healthy and they along with Clayton Kershaw can be the faces of this franchise and overshadow any issues – this team will be dangerous. I think the talent is there and I’d be a fool to deny it. However, I can just picture this blowing up in their faces like we’ve seen so many times. The end result will be Don Mattingly without a job. Regardless, there are not many better things in sports than turning on a Dodgers game and listening to the poetic methods of Vin Scully.

Colorado Rockies: The Rockies are starting to look more and more like the mid 2000’s Rockies that couldn’t put together a team and had a terrible rotation year after year. This year’s biggest question marks will be based on what they get in a trade for Carlos Gonzalez and whether or not Troy Tulowitzki can return as an MVP candidate. Their best pitcher is coming off Tommy John Surgery (De La Rosa), and I can’t pencil him in as a guarantee just yet. Coors Field effect is less of a big deal than it used to be, but they can’t compete in the NL West with this pitching staff.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Giants, Dodgers, D-Backs, Padres, Rockies
Jessep: D-Backs, Giants, Padres, Dodgers, Rockies
Joe D: Giants, Dodgers, D-Backs, Padres, Rockies

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Josh Rutledge, Colorado
Jessep: Gerrardo Parra, Arizona
Joe D: Tyler Colvin, Colorado

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Tyler Skaggs, Arizona
Jessep: Adam Eaton, Arizona
Joe D: Tyler Skaggs, Arizona

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: Matt Cain, San Francisco
Jessep: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles
Joe D: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles
Jessep: Chase Headley, San Diego
Joe D: Matt Kemp, Los Angeles

Next up will be the NL Central.

The game, whether it’s baseball, basketball, football or hockey is always the number one attraction for any consumer to walk through the gates. In 1941, Bill Veeck started to bring a different point of view. What if the game wasn’t the only entertainment?

In 1941, Veeck was a part of a group that purchased the Milwaukee Brewers of the American Assn. Veeck and his manager Charley Grimm put their heads together to come up with themes and gimmicks that would turn the Brewers into one of the most successful (and entertaining) minor league franchises.

Veeck took the game seriously though as well. Veeck is widely known as the man who signed Larry Doby, the first African American man to play in the American League.

Later on, his son, Mike Veeck would put his stamp on the game in 1979 when Disco Demolition Night demolished the record books for one night in Chicago.

Since the Veeck’s put their personal marketing stamp on the game, every major sport and minor league baseball does their best to not only entertain their fans beyond the game – but get some quality media exposure for doing so.

Some of the greatest promotions and giveaways occur when current events take everybody’s attention in the news. Which team will be the first to act and find a way to capitalize on current events?

But, with the season just around the corner, many teams have finalized their promotional schedules. In our first installment, we’ll take a look at the top 5 promotions the American League has to offer in 2013.

Toronto Blue Jays – Carlos Delgado Day: On July 21st Blue Jays fans will receive a commemorative Carlos Delgado baseball. The Blue Jays will honor Carlos Delgado by adding him to the Toronto Blue Jays Level of Excellence.

Baltimore Orioles – Alumni Series:  Before every Monday and Thursday home game, fans are invited to meet some of their favorite former Orioles, as select O’s Alumni will sign autographs.

Chicago White Sox – Mullet Night & Fireworks: This crazy combo will be held on June 28. As somebody who has grown tired of fireworks, when you sprinkle in Mullets, you had me at hello.

Seattle Mariners – Beard Hat Night: This promotion, which takes place on April 26, could be epic if the Mariners signed closer Brian Wilson. The hat is a ski cap that has a bottom face cover that looks like a beard. It’s pretty pointless, but I bet they will have a lot of fun with this item.

BREAKING: Your first glimpse of the @coco_crisp Lean Bobblehead on June 29 vine.co/v/bnu9vFqgHFO

— Oakland Athletics (@Athletics) February 4, 2013

Oakland A’s – Coco Lean Bobblehead: If you remember the 2012 Oakland A’s would celebrate by doing a Weekend at Bernie’s like lean-back. Oakland capitalized on this and found a way to put it into a bobblehead. Almost anything you can imagine has been done with a bobblehead – this hasn’t. Get yours on June 29.

In our next installment we’ll focus on the National League before diving into the Minor Leagues!

In truth, the question is fair. Last year, nobody saw Oakland coming. The year prior, Arizona caught the league off guard and took the division from the 2010 World champion Giants. The last two years have had fans around the country thinking, “Is this the year the Pirates compete?”

The truth is, baseball is a funny game. The Mets were as exciting of a team to watch as there was in the sport until the All-Star break last year. They ran out of gas, and luck.

Getting to that point is half the battle though isn’t?

I don’t share the same optimism about the predicted result for the Mets in 2013, but I do believe they have enough talent to surprise people. When you’re in a situation like the Mets, the theme of your season centers around the word “if.”

If Wright and Ike can lead the offense and complement each other.

If Harvey and Niese can make a name for themselves in the National League.

If Wheeler can come up and have an impact.

If d’Arnaud can be the backstop we need.

If the outfield surprises us all.

If the bullpen avoids huge let downs.

If the team stays healthy.

In reality, none of those scenarios are impossible or even unlikely at some point. It’s just a matter of whether it all comes together at the same time.

But I’m going to take their optimism a step further. In poker, this would be considered a raise.

I’m optimistic that within 3 years, the New York Mets are the toast of Gotham City. I look at the New York Yankees, and I see a team that is running out of time. You cannot outrun father time. None of us can. When you take a look at their farm system, anybody they are even close to excited about is still years away. They admit this.

Their top prospect, Gary Sanchez just finished A+ ball. Their second best prospect, Tyler Austin got called up to AA at the very end of the season last year.

The core of their dynasty is closing in on taking their final steps on the field, and their first steps toward Monument Park.

What if this is partly by design by the Mets? In 2005 and 2006, there’s no denying that the Mets made an attempt to take back New York City when they opened their checkbooks for guys like Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran. It could be argued that they were a tad premature in their attempt because the Yankees were still willing and able to spend on huge free agents such as Sabathia.

The game is changing though. Players like Sabathia, and Tex are not as likely to enter free agency during their prime. More and more, teams are building around their young core and using free agency to complement those players. The Red Sox are trying to do it now, and the Yankees will start to head that way shortly.

Before you call my optimism foolish or blind, answer me this. If (there’s that word again) the Mets core of Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Wright, Davis, d’Arnaud are as advertised, then 2-3 years from now who do the Yankees have to compete with that? They will likely extend Cano, but after him, what exactly do the Yankees have to make me think the Mets aren’t built to attempt a takeover of New York City in the near future?

A 34 year old Teixeria? An aging Sabathia? An unhealthy Pineda? Who exactly is going to put them over? The truth is, it’s more likely that the Yankees are preparing for a similar roster situation as what the Mets were dealing with over the last few years.

There’s no denying that the Yankees regained control of New York City by developing their young talent and bringing in complimentary veterans. Why can’t the Mets be primed to do the same?

For those that may think this doesn’t matter, I will remind you that some of the greatest moments in this franchise’s history came when the Mets, not the Yankees had the heart of New York.

When I think of this year for the Mets, I will take each day with a grain of salt. Should they surprise me and compete for a playoff spot, I will appreciate the moment. To me, 2013 unlike 2012 and 2011 have a great purpose.

The prior years were about treading water, and finding ways to get rid of contracts. Now, this year is the start of special potentially special. Can Wheeler and Harvey take the necessary steps to become one of the best 1-2 combinations in the NL? Can d’Arnaud being behind the dish not only provide adequate numbers but also help our young pitchers grow? Can Ike Davis and David Wright create a feared 3-4 tandem for years to come?

If those realistic scenarios occur, I believe the Mets could once again take over the hearts of New York and have Yankees fans reminiscing about the way it used to be.

Rarely do we get to see what happens behind closed doors.

Recently, the injury of Alex Rodriguez has brought about questions regarding the insurance of a player’s contract. On top of that, the discussion of whether the Yankees can void the deal they voluntarily signed has come into question as well.

Regarding the insurance on a contract, here are some things you need to know:

Most of the insurance policies are covered within 3 year intervals, and most policies are done solely to protect teams from injuries to players on a long term deal. So for example, David Wright’s new 8 year deal would likely get a new policy after 2016, because he was already signed in 2013.

If you’re wondering why this is the case, think like an insurer for a minute.

Would you rather insure a contract for a 30 year old until he’s 38, or would you rather have a new policy at 34 be written? It’s not in the insurer’s best interest to protect the team for the full 8 years at age 30. The likelihood of an injury to Wright at age 35 is greater than the chance at 31. Therefore, the insurer will not offer as much protection in 2017 as they did in 2014.

Most policies cover between 50-80% of the total contract value with premiums as high as 10% of the contract’s annual value. No insurer will cover the entire value of the contract, so there will always be some sort of risk on the teams part.

A major league team can only collect on a policy if a player is on the DL. Prior to the 1999 season, the Baltimore Orioles signed Albert Belle to a 5 year offer worth just over $60 million. Following the 2000 season, Belle was forced to retire due to a degenerative hip disease at age 34.

Because he could not fulfill the remaining 3 years on his contract, three things happened.

The first, he had to remain on their 40 man roster per the agreement within his insurance policy. Belle would still receive every penny of his remaining $39 million, but the Orioles were able to recover $23 million of that contract through the insurance policy.

This moment was when teams and insurer’s focused a little more closely on what and who to insure.

Cardinals former GM Walt Jocketty said

“It’s become so expensive that it’s a cost item we really have to look at when you put your payroll together. If you’re going to insure players, you almost have to include that as part of your payroll.”

The reason for this is likely that there is so much red tape involved in recovering a lucrative policy, that you may not see the recovery in the time it takes to pay said player. The Orioles had to pay Belle, regardless of what happened with the insurance. A baseball player’s contract is guaranteed.

Policies often did, but now definitely do not include coverage on a pre-existing injury. So for example, it’s very unlikely that the Mets would be covered on David Wright’s back should he injure it again or possibly suffer from post-concussion symptoms.

To take it one step back into the past, is it possible the Mets could not get an insurance policy on Jose Reyes’ hamstring/leg problems? It most certainly is.

For pitchers, the policy is generally more expensive and at times may not cover an injury to the elbow or throwing shoulder even if there is not a history of such injury.

In 2009, the Diamondbacks were looking to extend Brandon Webb for 3 years, worth over $50 million. Even though he passed a team physical, the Diamondbacks were informed their insurer would not cover Webb’s right arm. The Diamondbacks pulled their offer at that point. To a fan, they see not bringing Webb back for 3 years as a crime against the team – to the general manager and owner, they saw it as a poor business decision.

Insurance is also important when you consider the possibility of trading aging players on a long term deal.

In 2002, Omar Minaya then GM of Montreal said

“The Tom Glavine negotiations could be a case in point. When you’re negotiating a contract, the insurance issue comes up more and more, especially now that it’s three years. When you take on a guy in a trade, you always ask what’s the insurance situation.”

The other thing to remember is that players are not involved in this process. They do not care if you insure their contract or not. They are getting their money no matter what, how a team protects themselves is entirely up to them.

Let’s bring this full circle to the Yankees situation due to its relevancy.

It’s very possible and likely that their insurance policy on Alex Rodriguez’ remaining $114 million is not a cut and dry policy. That contract began in 2008, which means a new policy began in either 2010 or 2011 at the latest. Think like an insurer again.

You had a declining 34-35 year old, who has since been outed as a steroid user in his past. There’s no way they are insuring that contract on the high end of its remaining value. You’ll continue to read people assume that if Rodriguez is shelved for the rest of his career that the Yankees would recover the entire dollar amount. That’s not true.

You’ll also be reading about the Yankees trying to void his contract. That’s a wing and a prayer. It’s very unlikely that Rodriguez’s agent (Boras) allowed anything regarding steroids to be written in his contract. The Yankees will have to go above and beyond to find ways to void the deal, and at the end of the day – Arod is getting his money no matter what.

The Yankees only hope in my view of getting any money back on Rodriguez’s contract is if he doesn’t play in 2013 and then beyond that. If he heals in 2014 and they keep him on the DL in an attempt to recover more money, the insurer will have their own physical done on Rodriguez and determine the extent of the injury based on possible coverage.

But one thing to consider, an insurer is generally more careful than a team when it comes to their long-term financial commitments. Does Rodriguez’s policy include the fact that he cannot take any illegal substances that may lead to a potential injury? That’s very possible. There’s a lot to be determined, but I think we need to be careful in assuming this financial issue is cut and dry for the Yankees. It involves so much more than your mainstream media wishes to discuss.

If you’ve ever been curious enough to dive deep into the business of baseball (and other sports), I recommend two things to you. The first is to take a look at Sports Business Journal.

The second is to take a look at the complexity of a major league contract. This contract is referred to as a “split contract,” and though the name is blackened out, it is likely a veteran on the 40 man roster’s contract.

It’s items like this that help separate fans and executives. We see things as black and white. Sign this guy, trade for this guy and be done. But it’s never that easy, especially when you’re dealing with long term commitments.

Duda is expected to be the bright and shining star in the Mets OF (heck he was supposed to last year also) and it reminds me of when Pelfrey unfairly was expected to be the ace.

It’s as if we see glimmers of hope and rather than accept the guy for what he is – we magnify it to make him something he isn’t and raise the expectations to the point he cannot possibly achieve.

I feel like we as a fan base have this notion that Duda is a 40 HR guy just because he’s big. Size doesn’t make you a great hitter. A great hitter hits 40 HR.

You always read or hear that number get thrown out there as if this is 2001 and hitting 40 HR is the norm.

In the last 3 years, only 8 different players have hit at least 40 HR in a season. They are Miguel Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson (2), Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Dunn, Ryan Braun, Jose Bautista (2), and Albert Pujols.

There are a lot of great hitters absent from that list. Prince Fielder, Giancarlo Stanton, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto, Mark Teixeira, and Matt Kemp just to name a few.

This 40 HR bar, or heck even 30 HR bar that seems to face Duda is a flawed design which is destined to make him fail.

Duda turns 27 this weekend and besides getting hot at the end of 2011, what has he done to prove he’s a starting OF on an average team?

In reality, Duda is a big, slow, below average fielder who can occasionally hit for power but doesn’t seem to adjust his approach at the plate at all.

This year, Lucas Duda’s future with the Mets will be decided. He was sent down to AAA last season in an effort to figure things out – if it gets to that point again, it could leave Duda without a job.

The pressure on Duda is slightly unfair. In a lackluster OF, he is expected to carry the load rather than do enough to keep his job. This is very similar to the days when Pelfrey became the ace by default. Though he worked hard, he could never live up to those expectations.

I don’t see how Duda can possibly reach expectations of being a prominent power hitter in the NL.

The bigger question is, can Duda do enough in 2013 to not only keep his job in 2014 – but to assure the Mets they don’t need a brand new outfield once again?

Well here you go. Courtesy of Tim Elfrink of the Miami NewTimes, some significant names have been associated with a Miami clinic that has been linked to supplying drugs to several people ranging from University coaches, to current MLB players.

Of course there will be a lot of work done to check the validity of the story and the list, but Elfrink says the following with regards to how they obtained the list.

“The names are all included in an extraordinary batch of records from Biogenesis, an anti-aging clinic tucked into a two-story office building just a hard line drive’s distance from the UM campus. They were given to New Times by an employee who worked at Biogenesis before it closed last month and its owner abruptly disappeared. The records are clear in describing the firm’s real business: selling performance-enhancing drugs, from human growth hormone (HGH) to testosterone to anabolic steroids.”

The list of current MLB players on the list include: Nelson Cruz, Bartolo Colon, Melky Cabrera, Yasmani Grandal, Gio Gonzalez and Alex Rodriguez.

Now, let me tell you why I am fired up about this list.

Bartolo Colon and Melky Cabrera mean nothing to me. They have been suspended and already carry the scarlet letter.

Grandal and even Cruz mean little to nothing to me as well.

Everybody will focus on Alex Rodriguez being on this list. He claimed he was clean as of the 2004 season, and the fact his name pops up once again in a PED scandal will be the focus of so many news outlets, especially the mainstream.

But you know what? If this turns out to be a valid list, then Gio Gonzalez is the biggest name on this list. If you take a look at the quick reactions to the list, you’re noticing that ARod and not Gio is already the most talked about person.

Alex Rodriguez is a broken down, over the hill, often injured player who is chasing an already tainted record. What difference does it make to anybody whether he’s involved in a PED scandal? His team already seems to be forging ahead without him in 2013. He literally has almost 0 impact on the “present day.”

Yet, Gio Gonzalez at 27, had a career year for the Washington Nationals and finished 3^rd in the NL Cy Young race after winning 21 games. The Nationals are poised for a championship run and Gio is one of the reasons why.

What I see happening is everybody will focus on ARod and allow Gonzalez to get away with a soft apology or denial and move on. But, (again if this is true) the fact Gio is on this list changes a lot.

Gio could face a suspension if MLB investigates this story and finds enough evidence, even without a positive test.

There is going to be a lot of discussion about this story, and if it turns out to be false – then so be it. However, if it turns out to be true, then the biggest story of this list will be the impact it has on the Nationals and their most reliable starting pitcher being linked to PED’s.

UPDATE:

In a statement issued through his representatives, Gonzalez said: 

“I’ve never used performance-enhancing drugs of any kind, and I never will. I’ve never met or spoken with Tony Bosch or used any substances provided by him. Anything said to the contrary is a lie.”

For some of us that was a good day. Alderson whether we want to admit it or not is very highly regarded in Major League Baseball.

I’m a supporter of Sandy Alderson because it’s in my best interest as a fan to support him and hope he does a good job.

Not everybody is perfect though. As we look ahead to 2013, I want to take a look at 5 things the Mets under Alderson’s watch did that perhaps hurt the franchise more than helped it.

#1 Jose Reyes

This situation was handled poorly by everybody involved. However, the buck has to start and stop with Sandy Alderson. Just because I feel like Reyes wanted to be a Marlin, doesn’t mean Alderson should have let him walk away.

In truth, Alderson should have extended a similar offer to Reyes and made it public. If Reyes wanted to leave (which we will never truly know) then Alderson should have forced Reyes into the position to make that clear. If Marlins President David Samson’s account of the Reyes negotiations are accurate, than Alderson could have done himself and the franchise a lot of good by making an official offer to Reyes forcing him to choose Miami over New York.

“He said ‘I really want to play in Miami as long as you pay me $1 more than anyone else… I really want to make the most money I can,’” Mr. Samson recalled.

Sure, there had to have been talks with Reyes’ reps and I am sure dollar figures were batted around. However, not making the official offer forced Alderson to take a bullet that he could have possibly avoided.

In the end, this move not only cost the Mets a SS but it deeply fractured the relationship Alderson has with a large number of Mets fans.

#2 Saying we are buyers

Sometimes a General Manager can say too much or not enough. I think when Alderson said that the Mets are buyers, it’s conceivable that at the present moment, they were. That doesn’t automatically mean a deal is in the works, it’s just a statement to sum up the most recent discussions.

Where he was wrong was that he lead the fan base to believe they could expect something shiny and new before July 31^st. Not many General Manager’s make a statement like that ahead of a trade deadline.

So much of whether you buy/sell/stay depends on how the team is projected to perform based on how well they are currently performing.

I’m not sure what the Mets could have acquired that would have turned things around, but saying the Mets are buyers when things could (and did) drastically change was a huge mistake.

#3 Not signing Nimmo quickly

There was enough heat on the Mets for the draft pick of Brandon Nimmo, to have him not signed almost 2 months after the draft was unacceptable.

I cannot sit here and tell you I know Nimmo was a bad pick. Time will tell with that. I can tell you that Nimmo was not supposed to be picked that high and for the Mets to not be able to lock him up quickly and get him to report to the minors was a big mistake.

For a little while it actually looked like he may not sign to some of us. The embarrassment of that would have haunted the Mets for years.

#4 Misreading the closer market prior to 2012

I think you have to consider the Jose Reyes PR when talking about the signing of Frank Francisco. Any good PR team will tell you that if you get bad press, the best way to move past it is to give the press something else to write about.

The problem was, Alderson who is usually very patient with roster decisions appeared to rush the decision of his closer.

I do not know whether a guy like Joe Nathan, Jon Broxton, or Fernando Rodney would have come to New York – what I do know is that they outperformed Francisco and the Mets paid Francisco more than all 3 of them made.

I don’t think the contract was the problem, I think the player who got the contract was the issue. I think Francisco was maybe the 5^th or 6^th best closer on the market, but he got the 3^rd best deal and so you have to say the Mets whiffed on reading the market.

#5 The gaping hole in the Citi Field outfield

When Sandy Alderson speaks, he has to know that he has an angry fan base listening. I think Alderson gets caught up in being too vague when it comes to the future of the Mets.

The Mets outfield is a problem. You can’t really paint it any other way. It’s not a 1 player problem, it’s a 3 player problem. Lucas Duda was once thought to be a #4 type hitter, now he’s a #7 type hitter. Duda’s entire future with the Mets rests on 2013 in my opinion.

Center field is an issue partially because they had to know Torres was leaving last year so what did they do? They sent a struggling Nieuwenhuis to the minors after July 31^st and 24 days later he injures his foot and is shut down for the year.

If Nieuwenhuis was going to be the CF for the near future then he needed to figure things out in the big leagues.

Right field is a total disaster also because they literally have a big question mark in RF. I love watching Baxter play, but there is no chance he is an everyday player.

The rumors are swirling that the Mets could shock us all and sign Michael Bourn. If they do, I hope it’s for 3 years because anything less would make the draft pick not worth losing.

Bourn would bring two tools to the Mets that they are badly missing. Speed and outfield defense.

Bourn won’t magically turn the Mets into front runners, but he will have an impact in the outfield with his range and glove and he will bring a dynamic to the base paths that was missing last year with the loss of Pagan & Reyes.

Signing Bourn doesn’t solve the issues in RF just because they temporarily solve CF. Just like the Mets needed to get creative to find a new catcher – the clock is ticking on fixing the outfield.

History is going to be the great decider on whether or not Alderson’s regime was a success or failure.

Taskmaster asks:

We know Niese was signed long term in ST last season and the idea of locking up the young guys is a model that is being followed. I am not sure the Mets are 100% sold on Ike yet but they are certainly leaning that way. My question is when do we see Ike given a LT contract that locks him up for 5-7 years?

Jessep replies:

For me, I think Ike has a lot to prove in 2013. The excuses of being rusty due to the prior injury or valley fever are now gone. He has to have a strong season in 2013 for the Mets to consider him a long term solution at 1B.

With regards to Niese, he was signed to a deal that takes him through his 30^th birthday without the Mets ever having to go through arbitration with him.

With Davis, he will turn 26 just prior to Opening Day this year. So technically, the Mets know he’s under team control until he turns 30 years old just like Niese. The difference here is that Niese is a young left-handed starting pitcher on the rise, and Davis is a young  first baseman with something to prove.

It really all depends on the value of the deal. Neither deal would be necessary to keep the player on the Mets, it’s just a matter of where you project arbitration going with that player.

If I had to guess, 2013 will make or break this for Davis. If he has a solid year, I think he could be rewarded with guaranteed money over the next 3 seasons with an option at the end of the deal.

I wouldn’t say it’s something they need to do right now though.

The problem with the Hall of Fame is not the fact nobody got in this year, it’s the fact the writers are not given a clear criteria with simple guidelines.

The people who vote for the most part do take it as serious as they should. I don’t think we’ll ever see a change in the actual voting process. However, we cannot deny the use of PED’s has changed how we look at the game especially in a historical context.

Step 1: Remove vagueness from the criteria

You’re supposed to vote based on 6 things. player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team.

A player’s record, ability and contributions to the team are measurable. You can watch a player play and look at their stats and make a judgement on them.

A player’s character, integrity and sportsmanship are not measurable. It’s all based on opinion and when you allow opinion to be half of the criteria, you open yourself up to things like backne.

So unless the HoF specifically tells it’s writers to use clear evidence against a player, this saga will always continue. You’ll always have somebody say they think so and so did X.

But if the HoF says there isn’t any evidence on that, then it shouldn’t be used against a player.

Think about it like this. Nobody expects the voters to be a judge and jury, so why put them in that position? Barry Bonds being involved in a BALCO scandal is a fact. Roger Clemens being in the Mitchell Report with Andy Pettitte testifying he took steroids with Clemens is a fact. There’s a difference between them, and whispers about Piazza or Bagwell. Those types of situations need to be clearly defined within the criteria.

And not for nothing, but in an age where information is literally at your finger tips and book sales are driven by outing a player (such as Alex Rodriguez), if you as a reporter do not have any information 5 years after a player retires, then you’re the one who didn’t do your job.

If you’re a writer and you question whether Mike Piazza took steroids, then here’s an idea, go find out the answer. Do some work, rather than hiding behind a Hall of Fame vote and letting somebody else do your dirty work. If you’re going to have the fortitude to diminish a player’s career based on the fact he had zits on his back, then have the guts to call him a steroid user and get real information to back up your case.

Step 2: Clearly explain what will happen if a player is found out to be a PED user after induction.

Cam Newton was in the middle of a possible recruitment violation at the time of the Heisman voting. He received 729 out of 869 first place votes. Why? Because there was only speculation, and no clear evidence one way or the other. Therefore, voters didn’t hold it against him. Why not?

Well for starters, they know that if a violation is found out after the award is presented, that the award is stripped from the player. The voters do not need to be scared that they will be remembered as the guy who voted in a cheater.

If the Hall of Fame wants to say that taking PED’s is a detriment to the museum, I’m fine with that. Those players made their choice, let the hall of fame do the same. If people want to vote Bonds in, let them. They have the evidence in front of them and can decide how to judge it.

The problem is what happens if Bagwell gets inducted and 3 years later he admits to taking PED or significant evidence pops up? There is no easy solution.

That is what they need to solve. They need to assure voters that their vote is protected and they won’t be voting in a guy who tricked them.

To me, if Piazza was voted in and then it turns out he took steroids, leave it up to the fans to decide how to tell the story of Mike Piazza. If it comes out between January-July of his induction, he’ll likely get booed off the stage. If it comes out after induction, it will be another chapter in the steroid era.

This idea that we can simply erase the PED era (did it end?) and act like it never happened is ridiculous.

Step 3: Everybody gets over themselves.

Here’s a news flash for you. The Commissioner, Players, Coaches, Executives, Agents, Media and fans all had a hand in allowing the steroid era to take place.

Gaylord Perry used a spitball, Whitey Ford scuffed the ball. Both were illegal in the game of baseball because of the competitive advantage they gave players on the field. These players knew it was illegal, but they chose to do it anyway. The only difference between them and PED users is   science. There’s no level of cheating. You either cheated or you didn’t. If Andy Pettitte a Hall of Fame contender because he may have only taken PED’s once or twice (yea right)? Gaylord Perry decided he wanted to cheat the game, and he was voted into the Hall of Fame.

Nobody demanded an asterisks be put on Perry plaque. Nowhere on his plaque does it say he used an illegal pitch to gain a competitive advantage. Nobody since 1991 has demanded his plaque be taken down.

We need to get over this obsession that the players starting with Jose Canseco were the first and only players to try and gain a competitive edge by any means necessary.

Players have been breaking the rules since the rules were invented. This isn’t new, it’s just more scientific and worse for one’s future health.

What the Hall of Fame should do is get somebody to tell the story of steroid use in a historical context. Why it happened, what happened, when did it happen – and don’t build a wing to celebrate these people, but build it because it’s one of the many stories of Major League Baseball.

Those 3 simple steps will help us all move past the PED era and celebrate those who deserve to be celebrated, and forgot those we wish to forget.

You cannot erase the past and if you choose to run and hide from the past, you’ll never get a chance to see the future.

This week, I’m expecting to reach my boiling point when it comes to the Hall of Fame and those who vote for it.

I’m expecting to see Mike Piazza fall shy of the necessary votes to enter the Hall of Fame, and in my mind – that is a crime against baseball and the fans that every writer who doesn’t vote for him should be ashamed of.

I’m not going to sugar coat this. I believe there is a very good chance that Mike Piazza took some sort of PED. Heck, I believe it’s harder to find players who did not ever touch it than finding players who did. However, those with any kind of real evidence have had plenty of time and opportunity to come forward.

If your view is that Mike Piazza is not good enough to be a 1^st ballot Hall of Famer, I respect that. I disagree with it with every breath I have, but I respect it.

Since 1944, the Baseball Writers of America have been instructed to vote under the following guidelines.

“Voting will continue to be based upon the individual’s record, ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character and contribution to the game of Baseball. All candidates receiving votes on at least 75 percent of ballots cast will earn election.”

Individual Record, Ability and Contribution to the Game

Since we are looking first at Piazza being “good enough” let’s look at his individual record, ability and contribution to the game of baseball.

Mike Piazza played 16 years in the Major Leagues. During those 16 years, he was elected to the All-Star Game 14 times. He won 10 Silver Slugger Awards, and was a Top 5 MVP four times, and a Top 10 MVP 7 times.

Among Catchers, he has the most Silver Slugger Awards with Ivan Rodriguez behind him by 3. Since the creation of the Silver Slugger Award, only Barry Bonds has more hardware than Piazza with 12.

If you compare Piazza to catchers with at least 1,000 games played, he hit 38 more HR than any catcher in the history of sport, with Johnny Bench finishing 2^nd. He is 4^th all-time in RBI, 5^th in batting average, 8^th in OBP, 1^st in SLG, 1^st in OPS, and 1^st in OPS+.

When looking into a player’s Hall of Fame candidacy, I believe a writer needs to take serious consideration into whether that player dominated his position while he played. Not only did Piazza dominate his position when he played, but he also is dominant when weighed against history.

There are many who will attempt to bring up Piazza’s defense to try and count it against him. A fact that cannot be ignored is that Piazza was not very good at throwing runners out. However, there is more to playing defense as a catcher than throwing a runner out.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you he was a great fielding catcher. I am going to tell you he called a great game, and was not as bad as people make him out to be. Certainly not bad enough to leave him out of the Hall of Fame.

Anybody who makes an argument that Piazza simply isn’t good enough for the Hall of Fame needs to either re-learn the game of baseball, or is totally lost.

So, I think without any doubt Piazza has cleared his individual record, ability and contribution to the game of baseball test.

Now let us take a look at the final 3 criteria.

Integrity, Sportsmanship, and Character

There are a few players that appear on the ballot who were implicated directly in the steroid era. One of those players is not Mike Piazza. The mere idea that back acne or a groin injury is enough to keep him out of the Hall of Fame honestly proves that writers are trying to create a story rather than report on one.

Do I think there is a chance that Mike Piazza took something? Yes. But I also believe that there has been enough time and investigation into the steroid era to suggest that if you do not have clear evidence by now, then your job is not to invent evidence.

Writers should vote on what they know, not what might be true.

The biggest hypocrisy to me is when writers vote Jeff Bagwell into the Hall of Fame but not Mike Piazza. According to our own Clayton Collier the following writers voted for Jeff Bagwell but did not cast their vote for Mike Piazza.

In terms of their ability based on their position, Mike Piazza did more in terms of the history of the sport than Bagwell did. So trying to claim Piazza wasn’t as good as Bagwell is honestly a waste of time.

The idea that there is so much evidence to keep Piazza out but not enough to do the same for Bagwell is laughable.

In the minor leagues, Jeff Bagwell hit 6 HR in 831 plate appearances. From 1991-1993, Bagwell had 1,956 big league plate appearances and hit a total of 53 HR. At age 26 (1994), he followed that up by hitting 39 in 479 plate appearances.

Bagwell was teammates with known steroid users such as Ken Caminiti, Karl Rhodes, Jason Grimsley and Pete Incaviglia. He was also teammates with suspected steroid users in Steve Finley and Luis Gonzalez.

One of the biggest cases against a player like Barry Bonds was that he miraculously got much bigger later in age. Here is a photo of a 24 year old Jeff Bagwell, and here is a photo of Bagwell around the age of 32.

However, as time has gone on, Bagwell has never been implicated publically to steroids and for this reason I feel if you think he was good enough, he should be a Hall of Famer.

So if the evidence to make a guess on Bagwell isn’t good enough for writers like Adam Rubin, then why on earth should they hold Piazza back due to acne?

How about Piazza’s character and sportsmanship?

Well, he was given the chance to prove he lacked sportsmanship when Roger Clemens on a national stage threw a broken bat in his direction. There are hundreds of players that would have attacked Clemens in a heartbeat. Piazza did not start the brawl that so many others would have.

Piazza’s character was never questioned during his entire playing career. He handled the media with ease, and was a professional at all times.

Hall of Fame Witch Hunt

The writers who choose to not vote Mike Piazza into the Hall of Fame based on suspicion that has not been proven true are taking their privilege to vote and using it to put an even darker stain on the steroid era.

It has been five years since the Mitchell Report was made public, and still there’s never been a credible document written that implicates Mike Piazza. Anybody with such information could have greatly profited from it had they come out prior to Piazza’s initial Hall of Fame eligibility.

There are 21 years of Mike Piazza’s life that should dictate whether or not he is a Hall of Famer. During the first 16 he has the resume, and in the 5 years following his playing career there hasn’t been a single piece of credible evidence linking him to steroid usage.

The steroid era is a black eye on the game, but it’s a black eye we all willingly played a role in to some degree.

The Hall of Fame is the greatest honor a player can ever be bestowed, and to turn the election into a witch hunt rather than an election based on the criteria dictated by the Hall of Fame is disgraceful.

Fair and balanced team coverage. We give it to you straight!

In most instances, a free agent hits the market toward the end of his prime years. You’re purchasing an unknown commodity that is likely overpriced and will depreciate the second the deal is done.

There’s no doubt in my mind that free agent signings play a key role in completing a team. However, what I stand firm on is that you do not build a team through free agency. More and more we’re seeing teams lock up their young talent until their early 30’s. Why is that?

The homegrown team wants to get the most bang for their buck. A player (generally speaking) is at their best prior to 31, 32 years old. There’s always going to be instances when you extend homegrown talent past that age. David Wright isn’t the first guy to get a contract that will take him past his prime years.

But what about free agency? I think at times people mistake the lack of interest in spending money on free agents for a desire to not spend any money. That’s not the case at all. If you have $100 million to spend, why do you have to spend it all on aging players?

Why can’t some of that money get invested into the minor leagues, development, scouting and the international market? The problem for executives is that fans can actually see the money being spent when it’s spent on the open market. They cannot see it when it’s invested in the international market until many years down the road.

I wanted to see the success rate of multi-year free agents so I went back to the pre-07 season and focused on the next 5 years. We’ll use ESPN’s Top 50 Free Agents as our research tool.

To take it 1 step further, we will eliminate any player who re-signed with his former team. So yes, this lets GM’s off the hook who may or may not have signed a lefty with control problems.

Finally, as stated above, I’m looking at multi-year deals only.

So we’re talking about roughly $3.2 billion guaranteed to 86 players. So did it pay off?

How do you measure whether a free agents contract paid off or not? Team performance better than the year prior? Overall performance at the level it was prior to the contract? Making the playoffs? I know there are some statistics out there that say a player’s performance was worth X. Frankly, I hardly ever see a player’s performance worth what they are paid.

It’s a very tough measurement because you have to decide what you’re willing to give up for immediate success. For example, Alfonso Soriano signed an 8 year deal. For the first two years of that deal, the Cubs made the playoffs – yet they haven’t since. Also it seems like the Cubs are always in the business of trying to dump him. So, I can’t really say that deal paid off.

If I were to look at the 86 players honestly, I’d say the only ones I wouldn’t be upset about as a fan of that team would be:

Daisuke Matsuzaka ($52m/6yrs with Boston) – Even though it didn’t end well at all, it was a shot worth taking. His 2007 and 2008 seasons were very good, and he pitched in the World Series for the Red Sox. Dice K finished Top 5 in the Cy Young in 2008.

J.D. Drew ($70m/5yrs with Boston) – Again, Drew was on a championship team and filled an outfield need adequately for the majority of his contract.

Torii Hunter ($90m/5 years with LAA) – Hunter became a clubhouse leader in Anaheim and performed to expectations throughout his contract.

Mark Teixeira ($180m/8yrs with NYY) – They won a World Series, and he’s one of the best 1B in the game.

C.C. Sabathia ($161m/7yrs with NYY) – Though he opted out to get more money, the Yankees still got the ace they needed to win a title.

Derek Lowe ($60m/4yrs with ATL) – The end wasn’t pretty but when you compare him to Oliver Perez it just goes to show you how good of a signing this was. Lowe won 31 games in his first two years of this deal.

Adam Dunn ($20m/2yrs with WSH) – An average of 38HR with 104 RBI gets you on this list.

Francisco Cordero ($46m/4yrs with CIN) – Gave them a legitimate closer during the length of his deal before getting dealt in the final year.

Francisco Rodriguez ($37m/3yrs with NYM) – Obviously the vesting option could have drastically altered my view of this deal. While K-Rod gave many heart attacks, he was worth getting.

Jeremy Affeldt ($8m/2yrs with SF) – Has become a top reliever in the game.

Edgar Renteria ($18.5m/2yrs with SF) – Tough to leave a World Series MVP off this list.

Raul Ibanez ($31.5m/3yrs with PHI) – He wasn’t brilliant but his .798 OPS at his age proved adequate for what Philadelphia needed out of LF.

Aroldis Chapman ($30.25m/6yrs with CIN) – I don’t think I need to explain.

Randy Wolf ($29.75m/3yrs with MIL) – He was released in the final year of his contract but in the first two he went 26-22 with a 3.93 ERA in 67 starts.

Jose Valverde ($14m/2yrs with DET) – He re-upped after the 2011 year, and while that turned out to be a disaster, he was still one of the best closers during the first two years.

Cliff Lee ($120m/5yrs with PHI) – You know, this contract still hasn’t brought Philadelphia the 2^nd title they desperately wanted, but it’s hard for me to say this wasn’t a good idea.

Adrian Beltre ($96m/6yrs with TEX) – Still one of the best 3B in the league.

Victor Martinez ($50m/4yrs with DET) – The forgotten Tiger. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt right now because his 2011 season was very good.

Rafael Soriano ($35m/2yrs with NYY) – Essentially this move saved their 2012 season.

J.J. Putz ($10m/2yrs with ARI) – Sure wasn’t the Putz we saw here in New York. 117 appearances with a 2.48 ERA and 77 Saves.

The contracts not worth the money or years have high profile names like Crawford, Soriano, Zito, Lee, Burnett, Lackey and yes of course, Jason Bay. Combined that’s $735million.

Overall, I found 20 multi-year free agent deals that I’d have a hard time labeling as anything but a good idea. That leaves 66 players who signed multi-year deals where the negative outweighs any positive they bring to the table. That’s just over $2billion that could have been spent elsewhere.

So while free agents represent something shiny and new for teams and fans, they are far from a guarantee.

The game is changing into a game played by younger players. Buying aging talent on an open market no longer appears to be the answer when trying to build your team back up to a respectable level.

All free agency does is give fans and teams a quick fix, while in most cases ignoring the bigger picture until the hole you’ve dug yourself in is so great, that you’re trading a reigning Cy Young winner.

I can’t believe the Mets haven’t traded for Josh Willingham yet. After some injury issues he averaged .253/.350/.501 with 64 HRs the last two years. At worst, he’s slightly better defensively than Duda. I kept hearing the Twins would be looking for a #4 or 5 pitcher in return. Isn’t two years of Willingham worth a Dillon Gee? Or Familia + a mid-level arm? The Twins won 66 games last year so I doubt they’re too attached to a 33-year-old LF earning $14 mil through 2014. In Queens he’d ALMOST legitimize the Mets lineup. Should the Mets be as interested as I am?

First, I really like Willingham from the days he played in Florida. He’s not a spectacular player, just solid and consistent. Back in July, I even suggested that the Mets check in on Willingham. The problem there was they still had Jason Bay under contract.

Willingham turns 34 this February, and will be making $7m in 2013 and 2014. Despite his age concerns, he had a pretty solid 2012 season. Target Field isn’t exactly known for being homerun friendly, yet he managed to hit 21 HR at home (35 in total).

The problem as I see it is you’re still stuck with figuring out what to do with Lucas Duda. I think we saw enough to know that Duda is not a right fielder, the problem is, neither is Willingham. Willingham is a below average fielder and came up as a 3B with Florida. He was moved to LF for a few reasons, none of them were because he’d be a good outfielder. Including the minor leagues, Willingham has played RF 39 times.

Now, I want to be clear. I think he’s a better hitter than Duda. However, I am not sure how much of a drastic difference he can bring the Mets in 2013 and 2014 compared to Duda. I say this because I don’t think you can put Duda and Willingham in the same outfield.

When the Phillies acquired Revere from Minnesota CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reported that the Phillies also tried to get Willingham in the deal but Minnesota wouldn’t make the move. So if a team desperate to win a championship in 2013 couldn’t get the right price for Willingham, what does that say about the Mets chances? That tells me that Minnesota isn’t looking to deal him right now.

The problem for the Mets with regards to the outfield is that next year’s free agent class is not too attractive. I like Hunter Pence, but is he the answer? I like Ellsbury, but he doesn’t solve the power needs in the lineup.

I’m not excited at all about the thought of possibly signing Scott Hairston to be an every day player. I think his numbers from last year prove he performed much better when he was not a starter. So if a free agent like Cody Ross is not brought to Citi Field, then I think the Mets need to look at 3 right fielders in the trade market.

Alex Rios – The right handed hitting White Sox outfielder is making $12.5m for the next two seasons with a 2015 team option. In 2012 he hit .304 with 25 HR, 91 RBI, and a .850 OPS. The problem with Rios is that he seems to go to the school of Mike Pelfrey when it comes to consistency. What I mean by that is, he has one very good year, followed by a stinker. 2012 good, 2011 stinker, 2010 good, 2009 stinker. He doesn’t play an amazing RF, but he plays an average RF.

Michael Cuddyer – Another right handed bat, Cuddyer is signed for $10.5m in 2013 and 2014. Cuddyer brings a little bit of versatility in the field. He’s by no means a good fielder, I’d say slightly below average. What he does do though is give the Mets an opportunity to play him at 1B on occasion or even at 2B or 3B if necessary. Cuddyer battled through injuries in the 2^nd half of 2012. Most of his trouble stemmed from a strained oblique.

Justin Upton – I’ve been on the record more than a few time saying I am concerned that Upton’s offensive production is more a product of his friendly park than his own talent. His numbers since 2011 back me up. Or do they? 2011 was the first year that Upton’s name was seriously thrown out on the public trade market. 2011 was also the year the Arizona fans began to boo their starting RF. There have been claims that at times those boos turned into racial taunts – very inexcusable  However, I doubt every night he got booed there was racial overtones involved. So his reaction by saying he “doesn’t care” what the fans think really concerns me when you talk about playing for the Mets.

For my money though, Upton is the best bet based on the market and availability of corner OFs. I think you’d pay a similar price for somebody like Rios based on Chicago’s season expectations, so why not bump the offer up a bit and go for the bigger reward? Perhaps a change of scenery and playing with a childhood friend can help Upton reach his potential? Offering something like Flores, Havens, Familia and even Den Dekker perhaps? I’m not sure if that gets it done? I will say one thing, if this were to happen (and I don’t think it will) you’ll see a drastic change of tone from a lot of Mets fans when talking about the future of this ball club.

Moving Forward – The Mets are stuck in the outfield right now. This is why you’re going to see stories about the Mets kicking the tires on somebody like Grady Sizemore. The corner OF spots were once thought to be an easy find, but if you look around both the Mets, Phillies and even the Yankees are stuck with little to no power in the corner. Figuring this out will be a truly big task for the Mets over the next year.

I’m not sure what the answer is right now, but I am pretty sure it’s not trading for Willingham which would give the Mets two poor fielding left fielders – with one of them forced to play RF.

Thanks for the e-mail Phil, and keep em coming!

Most recently, Davidoff published his Hall of Fame ballot. Davidoff goes through every player in detail and does an excellent job at that. Davidoff also does an excellent job at proving why he should not be voting for the Hall of Fame.

In my honest opinion, I believe he is leaving Mike Piazza off his ballot to get people to talk about his ballot rather than uphold the value of the Hall of Fame. I will give a few examples of why I believe this to be true.

Davidoff uses four statistics to measure a players Hall of Fame credentials. To quote,

I looked at every candidate on this ballot and ranked him according to both WARs, Baseball-Reference’s WAR7 (which takes a candidate’s best seven seasons by WAR, to consider a player’s peak) and Jaffe’s JAWS. I rewarded a player one point for finishing first in a column, two points for second, etc. — and then ranked them by lowest score to highest.

He justified this method because according to him, “these statistics have no emotions”. This to me is flawed because the statistics he used also do not have a brain.

During the era in which Mike Piazza played, two catchers dominated the position. Himself and Pudge Rodriguez. How Piazza compares to others on a ballot makes no sense. In fact, Davidoff admitted he takes the position into account when he justified Alan Trammell getting into the Hall of Fame.

Davidoff says:

From 1980 to 1993, an impressive run for such a challenging position, Trammell was as good as any shortstop in the game.

So clearly at times, Davidoff chose to take the position into account and also how that player compared to the players in his era at said position. But why did he choose not to do that for Mike Piazza? Why did he shift gears and use a different standard?

Why does Trammell get to use players like Tony Fernandez, Scott Fletcher, and Gary Templeton to improve his candidacy by showing how much better he might have been against players at his position, but then the same methodology isn’t used for Mike Piazza in comparison to his contemporaries Jorge Posada, Jason Kendall, Javy Lopez, and Charles Johnson?

Davidoff justifies leaving Piazza out of the Hall of Fame by using the process explained above:

Using this process, Piazza placed 14th on my list of candidates

So when it comes to Mike Piazza’s candidacy, Davidoff is choosing to compare him to a player like Edgar Martinez (we’ll get to that). That is as useless as comparing a pitcher’s credentials to an infielder.

Taking Davidoff’s own system (which is flawed) I looked at who I consider the best catchers of all time (warning: I left Campanella off because Davidoff’s formula puts an emphasis on longevity).

So I looked at, Bench, Berra, Carter, Fisk, and then added Pudge and Piazza. I also threw in Jorge Posada who would probably rank third among catchers during the era Piazza played, just to see how far ahead Piazza is.

Johnny Bench would finish first with 8 points, followed by Gary Carter with 10, then Pudge with 14, Piazza & Fisk would be tied with 16, then Berra with 21 and Posada with 27.

So Davidoff is not putting in a top 5 catcher in the history of the game, but he’s putting in Alan Trammell because of how he compares to the SS’s of his era?

Trammell using Davidoff’s own formula was tied for the 2nd best SS of his era with Ozzie Smith behind Cal Ripken Jr. by a margin of 6 points (Ripken 5, Trammell/Smith 11, Larkin 13).

Piazza, using Davidoff’s formula finishes 2 points behind Pudge Rodriguez to finish as the 2nd best catcher of his era by a margin of 11 points over Posada.

Yet, Trammell being “as good as any SS in the game,” gets him in, but Piazza doing the same behind the plate and posting impressive offensive numbers, does not?

Then there is Edgar Martinez. Davidoff uses players like Martinez to keep Piazza off his ballot because of how they rank against one another using his formula.

Davidoff justifies Edgar Martinez in the Hall of Fame by saying,

Martinez was such a good offensive player, putting together a .933 OPS and 147 OPS+ over 18 seasons.

Martinez (whom I think is a legitimate contender) didn’t have to play the field for the final 10 years of his career.

Prior to becoming a full-time DH, Martinez’ OPS was .851 and his OPS+ was 133. Piazza played the most taxing position on a player’s body and while doing so posted an OPS of .931 and an OPS+ of 145 (this excludes his final year in Oakland when he was only a DH).

Where would Piazza’s offensive numbers have gone had he not played the field since 1998? So Davidoff is rewarding Martinez for not being good enough to play the field, but penalizing Piazza for being a catcher in 1,602 starts.

These facts alone prove the flaw in Davidoff’s method and also prove why using four statistical measures that have “no emotion,” is greatly flawed.

I believe Davidoff’s goal was to find a way to leave Mike Piazza off his ballot.

To weigh a player’s credentials versus an entire ballot and use four statistics that do not consider the position played is an enormous sign of willful ignorance.

Thoughts from Joe D.

To add to Mike’s well pointed and articulated argument against Davidoff’s ballot, let me add this.

To use some arbitrary statistics alone as your sole criteria in determining a players candidacy for the Hall of Fame, seems like a total jab at the sanctity and integrity of the process.

The reason the writers of the BBWAA get to select those players who are enshrined into Cooperstown is because it was assumed that they watched these players and saw them perform among their piers. They had the luxury of being paid to cover the candidates, and compare them to players in their own era or draw comparisons to former greats.

The measuring sticks that Davidoff uses aren’t indicative of the stats we use to measure which players were the greatest batters, or home run hitters , or base stealers. Instead he uses advanced metrics that are just flawed “catch-all” statistics that even the creators themselves can’t agree as to their computation or legitimacy in determining a player’s overall value.

If Mike Piazza does get selected into the Hall of Fame, baseball fans everywhere will remember that he hit the most home runs ever as a catcher and not because his JAWS and WAR7 ranked him with the immortals like Johnny Bench and Gary Carter.

If we wanted to use solely a statistical barometer to select players to the Hall of Fame, why have a vote at all?

Why not just develop the threshold for inclusion and get rid of the BBWAA and all their flaws altogether?

Too many writers use the ballot as a means to promote themselves rather than honoring the system and the institution they are supposed to protect and represent.

I have serious concerns about Ken Davidoff’s ballot, and wonder if he didn’t in fact use it to shamelessly promote himself – an act he accused R.A. Dickey of doing only days prior.

Some may say I’m a dreamer or some may say I’m an apologist for a general manager. I say nay. I am a Mets fan, and I’ve learned over the last few years that nothing is decided in the off-season.

Whether it’s the 07 and 08 Mets who were ready to break out and win a title, the 2010 Phillies who just got Halladay and were a lock to win it all, the 2011 Phillies who added Cliff Lee and now had the best rotation ever or the 2012 Marlins who added hundreds of millions in payroll because they were ready to be a contender.

I watched the 2012 Oakland Athletics trade away Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey last winter only to have everybody write them off as a team that was almost trying to lose games.

Don’t remember what the “experts” said right before spring training?

Athlon Sports said, “The A’s have managed to win at least 74 games in the five seasons since their last playoff berth, and they’d probably be ecstatic to win that many this year. More likely they’ll be fighting to crack 70 victories.”

AOL Sporting News said, “Oakland could lose 100 games in its latest rebuilding season.”

Bill Madden of the NY Daily News predicted the A’s to lose 98 games.

Greg Johns of mlb.com said, “Coming off a 74-88 season, Beane appears to be punting the immediate future in an effort to line up his forces for if and when the A’s can get their stadium issues resolved in Oakland or San Jose.”

Albert Chen of SI.com said, “They’re not going to be playing meaningful games in July — but they’re better positioned for the future.”

Buster Olney of espn.com said “Early in the season, Oakland ownership gets word that the move to San Jose is a done deal, and the Athletics funnel all their efforts into building the team for 2015-16” after he predicted them to finish last.

And one of the greatest prognosticators of them all (no, not Punxsutawney Phil) Las Vegas posted the Oakland A’s over/under win total at 72 and their odds to win the AL West were +3,500. For those non-gamblers out there, that means if you went to Las Vegas and put $10 on the A’s to win the division you just won yourself $35,000.

After their June 30^th win in Los Angeles, the Mets were 43-36, just 4.5 games out of the division and a half game back in the wildcard hunt.

Now I’m in no way going to sit here and tell you the Mets will make the playoffs. I am going to tell you that it’s not unreasonable to think they have a chance.

A lot of the Mets most recent critics are those who believe that baseball is about more than numbers on a piece of paper. I agree with them, but I find it inconsistent to assume the Mets are “punting,” based on pieces of paper.

The Mets still have work to do this off-season, nobody should deny that. They absolutely need a RF who can hit for power, and they undoubtedly need to identify arms for the bullpen whether through the farm or by any means necessary.

Much of the Oakland A’s and even Baltimore Orioles success was based on the unknown. The Orioles bullpen went from awful to incredible without changing a lot of personnel. The A’s went from trading Cahill and Gio to having a bunch of rookies who performed brilliantly in 2012.

When R.A. Dickey left, one of the key critiques was “how do you replace 20 wins?”

That’s a fair point, but can somebody tell me it’s impossible for Gee, Niese and Harvey to each win 15 games? If they can, then you just made up Dickey’s 20 games with Johan, another pitcher and possibly Wheeler to spare.

Let’s not forget about our two cornerstone infielders, Wright & Davis. Can any Mets fan tell me it’s impossible for Ike Davis to have an OPS higher than .659 after the first 81 games? What about Wright? Is it possible that he could have a better 2^nd half if the games become more meaningful?

It’s very logical to think that by May or June, Travis d’Arnaud and Zack Wheeler will join this team if healthy. What impact can they have infusing more youth into the club?

I think with today’s availability to information has made fans of all sports pessimistic by default. It used to be “get em next year,” and now it’s “we’re punting.”

The Mets have talent. If d’Arnaud comes up and can be as good as the Philadelphia Phillies director of scouting says then the Mets could have one of the best overall infields in the National League.

“I hated to lose him,” said Marti Wolever, Philadelphia’s scouting director. “He can be the centerpiece of an organization for a long time.”

“He’s a very confident kid,” Wolever said. “People can take that the wrong way at times. But he’s confident in his abilities. Some people might misconstrue that as arrogance.”

“I’m happy for him,” Wolever said. “But I hope we figure out a way to get him out.”

If Matt Harvey steps up like Parker and Milone did, this rotation looks a lot different than it does on paper. If Ike Davis comes out of the gate strong, this lineup looks a lot different.

Sure, the word “if” is a scary word when talking about a team’s chances. But, that word still gives me hope. It still makes me DVR Opening Day avoiding all communication with the outside world until I get home to watch, it still gives me a feeling that maybe we can surprise people this year?

I believe the future of this team is 1-2 full years away, but I also believe there’s a possibility that we can witness something special in 2013. I’m not giving up on 2013. I’m not giving up on the Mets.

I don’t believe the 40+ men in uniform will report to spring training and say “we’re punting.” I think they will go there looking to win baseball games, and no piece of paper, expert, or fan is going to convince them of doing anything else.

What do you think about the possibility of bringing in Drew Smyly of the Tigers? I’ve already touched up previously in a few comments about his great breaking stuff and if you haven’t seen a highlight video of his from the 2012 season on Youtube, watch it. You’ll be impressed in what you see. Alderson was talking about bringing in another starter that could win 10-12 games. This is the youngster for the job.

First, thanks for the e-mail! I think what we learned over the last few days about the Mets is that for starters, they aren’t going to tip their hand. Alderson said he didn’t expect many changes at all during a time when there was a Dickey deal on the table and nobody knew about it. Some call this lying, I call it being a General Manager.

Currently the Dodgers and the Tigers represent two playoff caliber teams with too much starting pitching. For the Dodgers, Chad Billingsley, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano and Ted Lilly all find themselves in a competition for the 5^th spot in the rotation. For Detroit, it’s Porcello & Smyly.

Looking at Detroit, they have Verlander-Sanchez-Fister-Scherzer-Porcello-Smyly. If you take a look at the Tigers needs, they need late inning relief, maybe a left fielder, and then obviously any prospects they can get.

When I look at the 6 man rotation they have right now, one thing strikes me as obvious. Smyly is their only left handed starter. So right off the bat, I think it’s more likely that they trade Rick Porcello than Drew Smyly unless they were overwhelmed by Smyly.

Smyly was rushed to the big leagues just like Porcello was. In 2011, he pitched in 22 games between A+ & AA ball and then last year he appeared in 7 AAA games before heading up to the majors.

Smyly struck out 94 batters in 99 innings of big league work, as a young starting pitcher, Detroit has to love those numbers. Smyly relies heavily on a 4 seam fastball, followed by a pretty good slider. He also has the ability to throw a cutter, changeup and sinker. So a 5 pitch starter is definitely intriguing, plus he is under team control for a few years.

If I were the Tigers, I would sell high on Smyly and I don’t think the Mets are in the business of buying high right now.

Lucas Duda would have to be the active player that gets sent to the Tigers, and he’s not good enough to net a 23 year old big league lefty. So you’d have to throw in a significant prospect in my opinion. Is Wilmer Flores that guy?

Flores right now is stuck within the Mets farm, but with the forecast of Harvey-Niese-Wheeler-Gee-Familia-Syndergaard (and others), is Smyly really the player the Mets need to go after if they trade Flores? I don’t think he is. I think if they are trading Flores, they need to net an impact outfielder.

Plus, if you are helping them out in the LF/DH department, you’re creating another hole in the Mets outfield.

I think the Mets are more likely looking at a short term solution in the starting rotation because they likely trust their young arms are good enough long term.

I think the Mets are much more likely to go after pitchers like Edwin Jackson, Shaun Marcum or Francisco Liriano depending on what the market is dictating for their contract.

And in Detroit’s case, I think they would much rather trade Porcello than Smyly.

I think if one of these 3 do not end up with the Mets, then I feel one of the Dodgers arms (most likely Harang, Capuano, or Lilly) are more likely to fit the Mets trade criteria and price than Porcello or Smyly.

I think Drew Smyly is a very talented young arm and I’d love to see him in a Mets uniform, but I just do not think it does enough for Detroit to make the move and I do not think the Mets are in a position where they feel Smyly is a must have.

Dickey made watching Mets games fun when there seemed to be almost no good reason to enjoy them. That cannot be minimized or said enough.

He had an unforgettable 2012, and I hope to watch him pitch Game 1 of the World Series for Toronto.

Now, this deal proved a few things to me. The first, that we all need to have a little more patience during the off-season. Just 5 days ago, the view from the Mets fan window was foggy due to the huffing and puffing many were doing. The off-season was a complete failure and the Mets front office was being viewed by their lack of action as giving up on building this team.

They were called liars for claiming there would be some wholesale changes. They were called out for over valuing R.A. Dickey on the trade market.

The quote I saw and heard most used against the Mets by many was “There will be more substantial changes, than subtle changes.”

The second is, the Mets played the Dickey trade market perfectly. Once Greinke signed, the Mets were in business and it took 24 hours for this deal to be reported as almost done. They may have made a mistake when it came to valuing the market on relievers in 2011, but they nailed it with Dickey.

Teams were reporting back that asking for 2 top prospects was too much. The media and fans were attacking Alderson for being too greedy in his requests. And then what happened? He got two top prospects.

By now, you all know what the Mets did. R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas have been traded to the Blue Jays for top C prospect Travis d’Arnaud, veteran C John Buck, Toronto’s top pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard and 18-year-old OF Wuilmer Becerra.

Sure, people can try to downplay the rankings that have these two youngsters ranked high. The flip of that is if he traded Dickey for two players not on the list – the Mets would hear “they couldn’t even get top prospects?”

You will have fans tell you that the prospects the Mets got may not pan out. That’s true. It can always happen. All you can do is do what you think is best for the future of the ball club. I will say this though, I believe the odds that d’Arnaud and Syndergaard help the Mets for years to come are greater than the odds that Dickey can replicate his 2012 season.

Yes, Travis d’Arnaud suffered a freak knee injury that didn’t require surgery and had 2 bulging disks in his back in 2010. Yes, Syndergaard needs to hit AA next year before we get real excited about him. But the reward outweighs the risk.

The organizations that have had consistent success have been those who had a strong core battery in place. Look at the St. Louis Cardinals with Yadier Molina, the San Francisco Giants with Buster Posey, the Red Sox with Varitek, the Phillies with Ruiz, the Yankees with Posada or even the Braves with Javy Lopez for so many years.

If you take a look around the sport, it’s likely no coincidence that Buster Posey (2), Yadier Molina (2), Jorge Posada, Carlos Ruiz, and Jason Varitek have been behind the plate for the last 7 World Series championships. It’s also likely not a coincidence that those 5 catchers came up to the big leagues with the team they won their titles with.

A catcher to go along with Niese, Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Gee, and Familia is truly a value the Mets fan should embrace.

In two seasons, the Mets have dealt two pending free agents and gotten back 3 top prospects. There’s no doubt that Baseball America can be wrong, and has been wrong. But if you look further than Baseball America, you’ll also see rave reviews for d’Arnaud and Syndergaard. Despite the views of critics, the Mets do have a scouting department that does more than read published articles of Baseball America.

The core of this team being made up of Davis, Wright, Tejada, Niese, Harvey, Wheeler, Gee, Familia, Syndergaard, and d’Arnaud should be something to be excited about. This doesn’t even include the potential of players like Michael Fullmer, and Luis Mateo just to name a few. We’ve seen teams like Baltimore and Oakland just recently, do more with less talent that I just listed above.

As soon as Opening Day 2014, we could see Niese-Harvey-Wheeler-Familia-Gee as the starting rotation with d’Arnaud behind the plate. That thought alone will get me through 2013.

The last few years were ugly, and it seemed like there was no direction just a bunch of GM speak. Now we know, the plan was to capitalize on the value of aging players to bring in talented young players who are almost ready to contribute to the big league club. I cannot find anything wrong with that plan.

A trade like this can always backfire. A prospect is no guarantee. But to look at that as a reason to not make the deal in the position the Mets were in is foolish. Sure I’ll miss Dickey. Sure, I worry that maybe d’Arnaud’s freak knee injury could hinder his progression. But you know what? I miss winning more, and not just “hey we have a chance for 1 year.” It’s a risk worth taking.

I want to win consistently, and you don’t win consistently by keeping 38 year olds when they are at their highest trade value. You win consistently by building a young core that will play together for several years while continuing to develop young talent in the minors.

Sure, we’ve seen our share of young prospects not hit their peak. But, that comes with the territory. We look to players like Fernando Martinez but I promise you one thing, Baseball America wasn’t responsible for rushing him through the minor leagues and did not have a thing to do with the injuries that would set him back.

You cannot be afraid of the future because of how things went in the past.

There’s more work to be done. There’s no denying that. The outfield is still a mess, and the bullpen needs work. But, there is money to spend in the upcoming years and less holes to fill. Using free agency to fill in holes rather than build your team is how the best teams maximize the market.

There is more work to be done, but that doesn’t mean work hasn’t been done.

I recommended that patience with the off-season was what we needed. Now, I recommend being patient for the next 2 years to let the young talent the Mets have flourish within the system.

You can ALWAYS do what teams like Miami did last year and just go crazy within the free agent market and hope a bunch of overpaid veterans win you games. If the prospect angle doesn’t work, you can always just spend, spend, spend to try to make up for it just like the Dodgers are trying.

The Mets tried that. They tried spending, and sometimes over spending and it didn’t work and it ended up digging a very deep hole. It could have worked, but it didn’t.

The chance to build a young and talented team like this doesn’t come around all that often. That is something that we need to embrace because if it works, it could truly be something special for several years to come.

It never seems like the Mets have figured out what makes for a great bullpen year after year. Sure you can develop arms like Atlanta, but that’s probably even harder to do. Maybe it’s not so much an organizational flaw, maybe it’s that nobody has truly figured it out yet?

What worries me about relievers is despite what people think – they are so unpredictable.

If I told you the Mets could get a reliever who last year had a 2.62 ERA in 68IP with 66K and 26BB with 1.16 WHIP while 10 out of 39 inherited runners scored.

You’d probably say “sign me up!”

Then I call him Ramon Ramirez 2011 and he’s run out of town because he struggled in 2012 and used as an example why our current front office is incompetent.

Yet here we are looking for bullpen help again.

The toughest thing to find in MLB is a good and consistent bullpen. The GM that figures it out will make a lot of money one day

To give you an example:

The Orioles and A’s both had remarkable seasons. Nobody here can deny that. They both had incredible bullpens in 2012.

But just look at Baltimore for a second.

Baltimore scored 7 runs more than they gave up but managed to win 93 Games in the AL. Of the other playoff teams, the smallest run differential was Detroit who scored 56 more runs than they gave up. Detroit won 5 games LESS than Baltimore.

They went 29-9 in 1 run games. Think about that for a second. They won 76% of their 1 run games! The next best in the American League was 66%. The difference between the Orioles 76% and the 2^nd best at 66% is a 3 way-wildcard tie with the LA Angels with the Texas Rangers waiting for an opponent in another 1 game playoff.

Baltimore had a Top 5 bullpen in 2012, and finished 27^th in bullpen the year prior.

The re-emergence of Darren O’Day who in 2011 appeared in just 16 big league games with a 5.40 ERA and 7 HR’s allowed comes back in 2012 and pitched 67 innings with a 2.28 ERA and allows 6 HRs. O’Day was selected off waivers last November after spending 17 games in AAA due to his struggles in the big leagues.

Pedro Strop who at 26 years old had appeared in 45 games since 2009 with a 5.22 ERA in 39 innings turns into a reliever with 70 appearances and a 2.44 ERA.

Troy Patton who was a Top 10 prospect for the Orioles struggles in 2009 with a 6.45 ERA in 9 AAA starts, then follows it up in 2010 with a 4.43 ERA in 25 AAA starts. Then in 2011 he gets moved to the bullpen in AAA, turns out a 1.83 ERA which leads to 54 MLB appearances and a 2.43 ERA.

Then you add Jim Johnson who in 90 games from 2009-2010 had a 3.92 ERA in 96IP with 105 Hits allowed and a 1.38 WHIP. Now in 2012 he appears in 71 Games with a 2.49 ERA, 51 Saves, and a 1.01 WHIP.

Then at age 34, Luis Ayala who we all remember is signed and appears in 66 games with a 2.64 ERA.

So as I read reports of the Mets interested in this guy or that guy – I take it with a grain of salt for now because I do not think anybody can explain to me why suddenly the Orioles bullpen clicked.

Is it Bill Castro who took over their bullpen coaching duties? Perhaps it’s Rick Adair who went from bullpen coach to pitching coach after Mark Conner resigned in June 2011? There could be a hundred different hypotheses on the subject.

To me, I think a player like Ramon Ramirez could have been a success here just as easily as he failed. Prior to 2012 if you were to evaluate Ramirez you’d say over the last 4 years he pitched in 276 games with a 1.21 WHIP and a 2.77 ERA and of the 169 runners he inherited, 38 scored (23%). If your team needs bullpen help – you’d love to add those numbers to your roster.

It has nothing to do with who signed whom, or sabermetrics versus traditional. To debunk that theory, just look at Baltimore and Oakland. It has everything to do with the unpredictability of building a bullpen.

If prior to the 2011 season, the Mets signed Luis Ayala who spent the entire 2010 season with 3 different AAA squads to the tune of a 6.42 ERA, whoever the GM was at the time would have been publicly bashed. Then in 2011 for the Yankees, Ayala appears in 52 games with a 2.09 ERA. Go figure.

The problem with acquiring any type of bullpen arm outside of a closer is that you never truly know what you’re going to get.

I know there are some stats to determine luck versus skill, but the truth is you just never know. The best a General Manager of any team can do is acquire the best talent he can find and hope for the best. If the Mets were to acquire a pitcher like Vinnie Pestano, they are acquiring a 2.45 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in 137 big league games. If he fails then what?

The Orioles this year are in a unique spot. Their starting staff was in the bottom 10 in the sport. Their offense was 15^th in baseball, but their bullpen caught lightning in a bottle. If I was a fan of the Orioles, I’d be very cautious heading into 2013 because a great bullpen arm can turn into an average arm in an instant.

The Mets have possibly 3 or more bullpen slots to fill before Opening Day. What they acquire on paper could be drastically different than what we see on the field.

If you have any doubts about the unpredictability of bullpen arms, simply look no further than 33 Games, 29IP with 24K and a 1.24 WHIP with a 2.12 ERA. I give you, Oliver Perez.