The real issue when considering competitive balance is revenue.  Some teams make a lot more of it than others by nature of their location, their fan base, and access to media outlets. I’ve always been puzzled by the notion of competitive balance at the micro-economic level. Isn’t the nature of competition such that the better organization and the better team should win? I understand that parity is good for the game, but if we really wanted it to be fair wouldn’t we have to rig a system where every team wins the World Series in a set order once every thirty years? How do measures that “level the playing field” not detract from inherent competitive advantages that are earned and deserved? Isn’t survival of the fittest a free market principle? Big markets should have an advantage, they have more people in them, and they pay higher prices.

If on the other hand you look at Baseball on the macro-economic level, as a single sprawling coast to coast business, then things begin to look a little different. You could argue that the scarcity of a brand in multiple smaller markets offers room for growth that makes up for whatever an already profit maximized big market may bring to the table. Competitive balance also makes for more interesting games which makes it essentially a quality control measure. No one enjoys watching the Yankees perennially steamroll the rest of the league (except Yankee fans of course).

Revenue sharing was first instituted in 1996 to help combat growing revenue disparities among MLB franchises. Based on 2012 revenues, $400 million will change hands from the big MLB markets to the small in order to level the playing field. The money is distributed on a sliding scale, which means that teams near the bottom of revenue generated, will receive significantly more than the $27 million average that would be distributed if that money were spread evenly across the bottom 15 teams. Ideally revenue sharing allows small market teams more flexibility in retaining home grown stars that they’ve poured development dollars into.

But revenue sharing hasn’t always worked the way it was intended to. Back in 2009 Maury Brown published an eye opening look at just how much money revenue sharing brought to small markets. He showed, for instance, that the Marlins received $20,946,573 and $21,030,000 in 2002 and 2003, while the Mets paid out -17,366,067 and -21,473,000 on those same years respectively. In 2008 and 2009 the Marlins received $47,982,000 and $43,973,000 respectively. Now consider this for a moment, the Marlins in 2008 had a team payroll of $27,003,450.00 which means the Marlins in 2008 pocketed over 20 million in revenue sharing dollars after payroll expenses. Doesn’t seem fair does it?

The new CBA will change revenue sharing in the coming years to address this very issue. The union requested a new rule that connects revenue-sharing money to big league payroll. In a report by Jason Stark of ESPN in November of 2011, he explained that teams receiving revenue-sharing money are now required to reflect a 40-man roster payroll 25 percent larger than the amount they’re receiving. So, if a team’s revenue-sharing check is for $40 million, their big league payroll needs to be at least $50 million. Also, by the end of this labor deal (2016), teams in the 15 largest markets will no longer receive revenue-sharing money, no matter how low their revenue may be. The 15 teams that will be ineligible for revenue sharing by 2016 are the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, Phillies, Red Sox, Rangers, Braves, Nationals, Blue Jays, Astros, Giants and A’s.

The problem for many, particularly those on the Player’s Association end, is that MLB continues to register record profits while payrolls have failed to keep pace. Between local network outlets and national media contracts (a deal with Fox was recently valued at $12.4 billion over eight years to be divided across all 30 MLB teams) the sport is seeing unprecedented growth. Maury Brown reported in April of 2011 that gross MLB revenues have jumped from $1.4 billion in 1995 to $7 billion in 2010, a 400% increase. When accounting for inflation, the league still sees a phenomenal 254% increase, and yet many teams have failed to invest these profits proportionately into added payroll. Revenue sharing was supposed to address that problem but it clearly has not.

Scott Boras isn’t happy about it. According to Boras, most teams have lower payrolls heading into the 2013 season than the highest payroll those teams had from 2000-2012. “Only five teams have higher payrolls,” Boras told Murray Chass in a Jan 2013 article. “Everybody else is below even though revenue is up 200 percent and franchise values are up 300, 400 percent. What we’re seeing is not many teams are spending on payrolls despite the fact that their profits are extraordinary. You’d expect teams to have their highest payrolls, but they don’t.” Boras offered these examples:

In spite of revenue sharing, record profits, and media deals sprouting up left and right, Major League teams have failed to invest in players, according to Scott Boras. Is this in fact the case?

Wendy Thurm of Fangraphs recently did a nice analysis of payroll fluctuations. Below are two graphics that she employed.

In the first graph you can see that revenue has indeed outpaced payroll, however, the second graphic is interesting because the year to year percentage changes in both MLB revenue and payrolls do not always reflect a similar trajectory. From 2003 to 2005 revenue rose steadily then remained relatively high while payroll dropped precipitously. Then from 2005 to 2006 payroll showed a 20% spike. From 2007 to 2008 payroll and revenue were both declining on a parallel course reflecting the economic downturn, but from about 2009 on, payroll and revenue deviate, crisscross, then begin to slowly rise in unison from about 2011 to the present. In her well articulated piece, Thurm makes the argument that while many teams have cut back (even in the wake of record profits), others have used this money to dramatically increase their payrolls. She cites teams like the Nationals and Detroit as examples. Personally I don’t see it so much. While I can see the argument derived from the second graph where payroll and revenue seem to follow parallel trajectories, there are two major deviations on that graph where payroll was far below revenue, and there are also teams like the Marlins that continually appear to invest a far smaller percentage relative to revenue growth.

Teams like the Mets on the other hand, which were one of Boras’ culprits, have cut back repeatedly over the past 4 years while media proceeds have risen. The Mets received an estimated 60 million last year for their share of MLB’s national media dollars, their SNY network continues to appreciate and continues to generate revenue, they play in NY, and yet the team’s payroll ranked 19th out of 30 teams.

The odd conclusion here is that for some teams, the market dynamic isn’t responding the way it’s supposed to. Many small market teams are making out like bandits while teams like the Mets aren’t faring well at all. The Mets should not be losing money, they should not have had trouble managing their debt and they should be awash in cash as they reside in the biggest baseball market in the world, but the Wilpons were so damaged by losses through their association with Madoff and the depreciation of their real estate holdings, and they accumulated such a massive debt load from their new stadium, they reached a point where they were unable to invest in payroll on a level commensurate with the rest of Major League baseball. In retrospect, the lack of any semblance of prudent economic foresight demonstrated by Met ownership is truly astonishing. To add to their problems the Mets’ massive market wasn’t (still isn’t) helping them at the gate, as fans simply stopped showing up. Revenue continued to spiral down and here we are looking at a crappy on-field product, empty stands and a seemingly perpetual limited budget.

Eventually the Wilpons may be pressed into boosting payroll if they are to get themselves off of Boras’ list. No matter how much media money they manage to procur, if they keep losing money at the gate my guess is they’ll eventually have to sell the team. Sure, maybe the small marketers will herald a Met turnaround generated via their resurgent farm system, but barring that, the Wilpons are going to have to splurge. The striking thing about Boras’ list is that with the exception of the Rays and the Braves, every team on it has had a losing record over the period of time referenced on the chart. Clearly, teams that cut salary don’t fare well. The Mets simply can not keep pace with the rest of the league if during a time of plenty they continue to impose restrictions. At some point they’re going to have to invest if they’re to bring the fans back, even if it means betting the house.

“Valdespin knew that was coming. I don’t think it’s fair to say that since we didn’t hit one of the Pittsburgh hitters that he doesn’t have a friend. The notion that he was hung out to dry I think is a mistake. I’m not telling you he’s the most popular guy in the clubhouse, but I don’t think he was hung out to dry.”

* * * * * * * * * * *

There is a problem with the current Mets. It is a problem of morale and a malaise of camaraderie that is potentially far worse than I think management and maybe even the players realize (if they did they would do something about it). It is a problem that transcends talent and infringes on motivation, resolve, and cohesion.

When I was a kid in Queens, 98th street Corona to be exact, there were kids on the block that no one liked. We’d scrap and scuffle with them on a weekly basis it seemed like … but if anyone from outside the neighborhood came around to pick on them we’d chase them off every time … even though we didn’t like them much. Why? Because we didn’t want those outside kids thinking they could come around and bully us.

This is all about mindset, attitude, reputation.

Do the Mets wish to be the sort of team that may show up the opposition and when they get beaned they thank their adversaries for teaching them a lesson?

Or

Do the Mets want to be the sort of team that may occasionally showboat, but if you bean them there will be hell to pay?
With a plunking, you miss by a few inches and it’s a broken wrist. You miss by a foot and it’s a life threatening concussion. Is that really worth whatever slight a bat flip may have incurred? No. That’s why you have to go beaning for beaning, every time, benches warned, end of story. Your guy learns his lesson and you maintain your honor — win/win. Who is to say they won’t go after David Wright next time? It deflates the esteem and morale of the players who turn away. It makes your team look like a bunch of hateful cowardly pansies and it invites even more beanings.

Think of it this way, if you’re enemy is so divided they’re sacrificing members of their own, serving them up on a platter, do you take their platter and ask for seconds? Of course, attrition in your opposition is always a gateway to success.

Valdespin rubs some people the wrong way, he can come off as unusually arrogant, but he’s a kid who is still learning and I was struck by the look of surprise when he got hit. He really didn’t seem to understand why he got beaned. Afterwards, surprisingly, I disliked Valdespin a little less (I’ve actually always rooted for him — he was even on my fantasy team for a while), and disliked the rest of the team (starting with the Manager) a lot more.

There was a certain code growing up in Queens. You didn’t snitch, you didn’t turn your back on your friends (even if they weren’t really your friends – even if they just happened to be with you), you never sided with outsiders, and if someone from the outside did get to you, you got them back hard and fast. That was NY in the early 70′s, and it’s probably still the case in places like Corona, and Flushing, and Jackson Heights, and Bedford Stuyvesant and Bushwick and Flatbush and any number of other places that make up the Mets fan base.

What this team needs, more than anything, is Management that understands its fan base. What we need is more resolve, and less passive aggressive maneuvering. Fred and Jeff Wilpon appear to have taken a critical formative lesson from their initial success in 86 and they’ve run with it to a fault. They’ve insisted on drafting and signing high character players in an effort to head-off  the drug infused nightmare that resulted in the collapse of a would be dynasty.

Unfortunately it’s rare to find the sort of “high moral fiber” kid who is also tough enough to navigate the pits and hurdles and barbed wire and needles and pills and seedy motels of a minors to major league career. You need guys who have been through some adversity, who can handle it, who won’t run away and shrink, in spite of all their talent, at the first hint of trouble. In fact, the key to success in any number of endeavors may very well be adversity and how the participants deal with it.

Adversity breeds cohesion.

For any of you who may have had the opportunity to be part of a cadre of individuals who went through some sort of struggle together, whether it was bad boss, a playground altercation, or combat action, you know how it can unify you. There will always be “that time” you remember when you stood up for each other. You come out of it forever knowing you could count on those individuals, you may even call them from time to time even if they live in far away places now, there is always that bond.

On the other hand, if you’ve ever had the misfortune of being part of a group that turned tail and fled, leaving you high and dry … you knew never to trust them again. Groups like that never stay together, they never last, they never succeed.

I once read a quote from a scout that essentially said (paraphrasing), “in any given organization you probably have the pieces to put a championship team together, the trick is knowing how to put the right pieces in the right places.” I believe that. Yes you need a certain amount of talent but every organization has talent, what every organization doesn’t have is the means or wherewithal to maximize it by putting players in situations where they succeed, at the right times, with the right coaches and the right teammates.

In the end, that winning recipe is reflected in that unit that can overcome adversity and stay together without fracturing under pressure, that team that will stick up for one another and support each other and make each other better. They know that they may bicker and squabble and maybe even fight among themselves, but on the field they know they’ll have each others’ backs because they’ve been there before..

That’s what was lost this past Saturday afternoon at Citi field when the Mets watched one of their own get plunked without so much as a glare at the opposing pitcher from the Met dugout.

Collins spoke of lessons learned afterward.

That’s an awfully pricey lesson if that’s the case.

We have the teamwork, to make the dream work?

Jordany Valdespin has his flaws and it has nothing to do with his race. He could be Caucasian, African American, Pacific Islander, doesn’t matter … he’s had trouble with insubordination in virtually every stop on his way to the majors. He picked a fight with Ike Davis and Justin Turner for a prank they had absolutely nothing to do with, he took a silly picture wearing a Marlins cap and put it up on twitter, he is ridiculously full of himself and the fact of the matter is that in no baseball universe is it acceptable to celebrate the way he did when your team is six runs down in the ninth. It just looks bad and makes your teammates look bad.

That Jordany is universally disliked is a given. Word is Teufel can’t stand him and Collins isn’t far behind … Valdespin is stubborn and difficult and he’s been suspended numerous times for his belligerence, most recently in the winter leagues where he ran afoul of his coaching staff …

So lets stop acting like this is some sort of racially motivated conspiracy against a Latino player, or that this somehow reflects a lack of tolerance for his ethnic or cultural predilections. Lagares, Tejada and Familia seem to be doing just fine, as did Reyes who in many ways was far more animated … But Reyes was likeable, and his intent was to have fun and fire up his team. Jose never celebrated a homerun when his team was down a half dozen runs.

Yes Valdespin has a ton of talent, yes he’s probably the best outfield option on the team, yes he’s probably come a long way from his days of getting suspended in the minors, and no this isn’t about his ethnicity or his culture. This is all about Valdespin being Valdespin, a guy who in all likelihood would have a hard time fitting into any major league clubhouse.

As I write this, Valdespin comes up with the Mets down by nine runs and promptly gets plunked … not entirely surprising, still I felt bad for the kid. What was surprising was the reaction on the Mets bench. No support, not even a raised eyebrow. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like that. Most teams have one or two players who are disliked, the 86 Mets had a few, every team has them … but I can’t imagine anyone on the 86 team getting plunked without someone on the Met bench going ballistic. Could still happen here with Valdespin, but I doubt it.

Apparently Valdespin is so disliked that his own teammates don’t seem to mind when the opposing team hits him. As Gary Cohen pointed out, what does that do for team chemistry?

Greg Jeffries had enemies on the Mets but I can’t imagine him getting plunked without some response from the Met bench. I’ll say this, if I were on a team where one of my teammates got hit and there wasn’t so much as a whimper from my dugout I wouldn’t like it. I’d trust my teammates a little bit less for not coming to Valdespin’s support regardless of how unsavory a character he might be. I might even wonder if these same teammates would come to my support.

When I began this piece I intended to conclude on a hopeful note by pointing out that Valdespin has too much talent, that he might benefit from some sort of structured intervention to help him adjust, that he’s still a Met and I hope he can succeed.

People fail to adjust for any number of reasons, anything from difficulty with social pragmatics to personality disorders to actual adjustment issues, but when a single person is so polarizing that an entire team turns it’s back when that person is assaulted — by the opposition no less — you know it’s time to make a change. No one wants to be on a team that betrays it’s own, a team that turns a blind eye when its players are plunked. As much as I may understand how difficult Valdespin might be, I question the entire team a little bit more after today’s pathetic showing.

Maybe Collins needs to go, maybe Valdespin needs to be traded … but there is no way you can have this sort of atmosphere bubbling under the surface of a clubhouse and expect to have teammates who can work together, lift each other up, and help each other succeed.

Personally I think the Pirates wouldn’t have even cared if Collins and the New York Media hadn’t brought the whole thing up the night before … but in the end Valdespin gets plunked and the Mets end up looking like a bunch of cold-hearted pansies who either hate each other so much they don’t care, or don’t care enough to defend their own. Either way it’s bad, really bad.

If I’m Sandy I’m on the phone after this game and I’m seriously evaluating my managerial and coaching alternatives.

The fact that Collins went crying to the press after Friday’s game was shameful. Tackle the problem face to face with the player and today you tell your pitcher to drill the next Pirate batter who comes to the plate.

You don’t admit your player acted poorly and allow your guys to be assaulted and potentially injured because of a bat flip, and because you’re glad it wasn’t David Wright, that’s just stupid. And, if there’s a guy in your clubhouse that inspires that much hatred? Well maybe it’s time to trade him or demote him, or better yet put a manager in place who can actually manage the personalities on his team.

Following the game, “They threw at him. I knew they might.” – TC

And you did nothing Terry? You let your kid get hit, because, he deserved it? That’s some leadership right there.

“I would have been bothered had it been somewhere up in the neck area,” manager Terry Collins said. “If nothing else, he grew by it, and that’s the most beneficial thing that could happen.” – TC.

Yes! Please throw at our players because we don’t have the temerity to teach them how to play the game ourselves … just not at the neck if you don’t mind. See, what’s really important here is that we not show up the other team … we don’t want to upset them while they’re clobbering us and we understand that if we get out of line they’re just doing us a favor when they bean us … it teaches us a lesson … we “grow by it.” So, thank you Pirates.

Unbelievable.

Terry quite probably precipitated the events on Saturday afternoon by bringing attention to the bat flip in the first place, then he did nothing after the kid got drilled in the forearm, didn’t even send a trainer out … mind blowing really. I don’t see anyone on this team running through any walls for this manager any time soon and today’s events certainly won’t help.

The lesson here is somewhere in the fact that this article started out as a critique of Valdespin and was originally going to end with a call for some sort of intervention (because the kid is talented) … then Jordany got drilled and the article turned into something far worse, an indictment of a team that will do nothing when one of it’s young players gets hit.

The problem is that in spite of all of Jordany’s flaws no one deserves to get plunked for flipping a bat — no matter what the player’s shortcomings might be. He’s still a team member, he wears the same colors and you come to his support if the opposition goes after him, I’ve known that since the third grade. So there is something far worse going on here, something missing in the character and resolve and cohesion of this team, something possibly irreparable without some dramatic changes.

With two outs in the ninth, Adam Rosales hit a drive to left field that seemed to clearly hit a railing above the edge of the wall tying the game, yet somehow, crew chief Angel Hernandez ruled that there was “not enough evidence” to overturn the call. Apparently, actually seeing the ball clear the wall, is not enough.

”Everybody else said it was a home run, including their announcers when I came in here later,” a miffed Melvin said. ”I don’t get it. I don’t know what the explanation would be when everybody else in the ballpark knew it was a home run.”

”Clearly, it hit the railing. I’m at a loss, I’m at a complete loss,” Melvin added.

Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal are both calling for resumption of the game from the point in the ninth inning where Rosales tied it 4 – 4. While the chances of this happening are slim, MLB will likely offer some consolation in the form of an “official statement” … there may even be a “policy review.”

The term that’s being knocked around a lot this morning in light of this astonishingly bad call, is “centralized review.” Central review is similar to what is employed in the NHL, involving a team of officials monitoring a video bank (most likely in N.Y.) with access to all the video feeds of all in-progress games.

During the off-season MLB also agreed to test two advanced replay systems live during games, a radar-based system and a camera-based system, similar to the ones used in tennis for down-the-line fair-or-foul calls. Yankee Stadium and our very own Citi Field were chosen as guinea-pig parks for these systems, which have apparently already been installed.

So my question is, where were these systems during the botched call in the ninth inning the other night? In fact, where are these systems period? I don’t see them, are they so advanced they have “stealth” capabilities? Is the box that Buck crashed into last week that prevented him from making a play in foul territory part of these systems? Are they supposed to interfere with players that way? How are they testing these systems? Is there a team of officials umpiring certain games in a video room and comparing their results with the rulings on the field? A digital domain, if you will, where the alternate umps officiate in real time only instead of wearing black outfits they’re dressed in blue spandex dotted with blinking LED lights … Maybe instead of popcorn and hotdogs they snack on couscous and baby carrots …

In 2012, Ken Rosenthal, in the midst of his little conniption over Santana’s no-hitter, reported that commissioner Bud Selig remains wary of slowing down games for fear of a “robotization” that may eventually extend to balls and strikes. Robotization, yep, that’s the word he used … Bud Selig is afraid of a robot takeover. Can you imagine? A terminator-series cybernetic umpire? Hasta la vista Bob Melvin.

One thing is clear, in an age where video review is everywhere, where anything out of the ordinary can end up on Youtube in a nanosecond, MLB is well behind the curve.

The purists will tell you the game doesn’t need to be changed, but there is a growing consensus that technology has improved to such a degree that the game would be improved dramatically with the addition of these technological assets.

I’m all for it … in fact I don’t see what would be so difficult about equipping umpires with some high resolution 12 inch tablets with direct links to all the video feeds. Umpires could watch the game as it happens … shucks, they wouldn’t even have to be at the game, they could officiate from the comfort of their living rooms thereby also avoiding any potential bodily harm from fan riots.

Thoughts from John Delcos

There’s arrogance. There’s blind arrogance. And, there is Angel Hernandez arrogance, which by the way, incorporates a little bit of the blind.

Another night, another blown call, but Hernandez’s last night in Cleveland was compounded by his bullish behavior afterward, which should be met with swift and forceful action by Commissioner Bud Selig.

“Probably the only four people in the ballpark,’’ Oakland manager Bob Melvin said about the umpire’s non-reversal.

Replays clearly showed the ball struck a metal railing over the padded outfield wall. More to the point, after striking the railing, the ball ricocheted as you know it would when it strikes metal. Umpire supervisor Jim McKean told ESPN.

Hernandez, using the umpire’s stock get-out-of-jail-free card, said: “It wasn’t evident on the TV we had and it was a home run. I don’t know what kind of replay you had, but you can’t reverse a call unless there is 100 percent evidence and there wasn’t 100 percent evidence.”

Hernandez clearly didn’t want the interview recorded because he could come back and claim he was misquoted. The quote the reporter acquired the old fashioned way was damning enough.

The umpires use the same camera angle used in the broadcasts and have additional cameras. To suggest the reporters had different camera angles is absurd, not to mention a fabrication.

Hernandez was trying to cover up his own ineptitude with an outlandish story. Clearly, he blew the call, threw dirt on the system used to correct mistakes, and compounded his failure by refusing the interview to be recorded and his arrogant answer.

The ball now is in Selig’s court, and with his powers “to act in the best interest of baseball,’’ his reaction should be swift.

The call should be reversed – to hell with it being in the umpire’s judgment – with the game resumed after the home run. Any fines for Melvin and Rosales should be rescinded.

As for Hernandez, he must be fined and suspended for his actions. Selig needs to come down hard on Hernandez. Really hard. And, in the future, any attempt by an umpire to bully reporters by preventing interviews to be recorded should be met with similar punishment.

“They rigged the signing of free agents. They got caught. They paid $280 million to the players. And I think that’s polluted labor relations in baseball ever since …”

In spite of Selig’s unscrupulous past he was able to corral enough owners to his side in an 18 to 9 vote of “no confidence” to force Vincent out. Now, you’d think it would be difficult for an owner with a history of impropriety to ascend to a position best suited to someone who might inspire trust from both sides, not so. Selig took the commissioner’s chair in 1992, passing control of the Brewers to his daughter, Wendy Selig-Prieb.

Selig of course presided over the 1994 player’s strike. The 232-day work stoppage lasted from August 12, 1994, to April 2, 1995. What has since been described as the worst work-stoppage in professional sports history was precipitated by a collective bargaining proposal that included a salary cap. Tensions were exacerbated by the collusion attempts … Ownership dug in and the players didn’t budge. Eventually the 1994 season became a lost cause.

The strike damaged the game deeply, fans walked away in droves. There was a prevailing perception that the great American pastime had been irrevocably corrupted by greed. It was also during this time that steroids took root in MLB locker rooms. This issue was covered in a previous piece, so I will only note here that while it is true that the players shoulder a preponderance of blame, the owners did little to stop the spread of PED’s while they lined their pockets, and, in the end, the spread of steroids did occur on Selig’s watch.

The strike hurt the Montreal Expos more than any other team. Montreal had the best record in baseball at the time. The Expos were also lobbying for a new stadium, an effort that disintegrated with the work stoppage. Soon thereafter the Expos were sold to an art dealer named Jeffrey Loria who immediately demanded that the local government build him a new stadium. When this didn’t happen Loria eviscerated and sold the Expos to Major League Baseball for 120 million.

Loria used the proceeds from this sale to purchase the Florida Marlins. A suit was promptly filed by 14 minority owners of the Expos accusing Loria of conspiring with MLB (Selig) to dilute the minority partners’ share of the team from 76 percent to 6-to-7 percent. The suit went on to assert that Loria never intended to keep the franchise in Montreal and that he planed all along on flipping the Expos with an eye on the Marlins. Eventually the suit was settled with the former Expos owners receiving an undisclosed amount. As part of the settlement, none of the documents from the case were made public. This was in effect the second ruling against Selig in a 15 year span.

In the meantime Selig continued to pursue a contraction campaign focusing on the now MLB run Montreal Expos and the Minnesota Twins (for which there was a glaring conflict of interest since the Brewers and Twins shared the same market). Selig himself (who was good friends with the obscenely wealthy Pohlads) had managed in 2001 to get the city of Milwaukee to build Miller Park with $290 million in public funds, so he knew the drill — threaten and lobby.

Selig’s efforts to contract the Expos and the Twins failed as a result of a ruling requiring that the Twins honor their contract to play in the Metrodome. The Expos were subsequently sold and moved to Washington. What remained unresolved for many fans, however, were the exaggerated claims of losses on the part of baseball owners who at the time argued that the market was stretched thin and that teams were being pushed to poverty by player salaries and crumbling venues.

The Twins did eventually get their stadium (with 250 million in public funding), and on the day of its unveiling in April of 2010, Selig, strangely, brushed aside questions about contraction by brazenly stating, “there was a lot of mythology” to it. These comments left many feeling as if contraction was an elaborate ruse to secure support from legislators for stadium funding, a ruse Selig’s old conspirator Jeffrey Loria went on to perfect in securing public funding for a new stadium in Miami. An endeavor that eventually left Miami-Dade County with a 2.4 billion dollar debt, an empty stadium, and a massive abomination of a fish sculpture.

What does all this have to do with the Mets? There’s a pattern of influence and impropriety here that stretches back quite a ways. Wilpon was able to wrest the Mets from the more belligerent and restive Doubleday with Selig’s blessing (and a handy low-ball MLB appraisal). Selig has also presided over an office designed, ironically, to help maintain the integrity of the game, turning it instead into a vehicle for charting new profit streams. In the business world Selig is considered by many to be the greatest commissioner ever, having overseen an era that saw profits increase by 400%. But if there is one thing we know about Bud, it’s his long-standing desire to undermine free agency and level the playing field for smaller markets.

Bud Selig may have seen a unique opportunity to bring down spending and bolster parity by recommending a high level MLB operative (known for his ability to slash budgets and operate on a shoe-string), for the position of GM of the NY Mets. What better place to promote a small market paradigm than the biggest stage in the world?

In 2010 two crises were raging in MLB. Frank McCourt of the Dodgers was running his team as a personal bank account during divorce proceedings that had brought him to the brink of bankruptcy, and the Wilpons in N.Y. were in danger of losing the Mets as a result of a massive stadium bill and a disastrous association with Bernie Madoff and his ponzi scheme. Selig all but guaranteed that McCourt would sell by imposing a heavy-handed MLB takover, while he quietly supported the Wilpons with loans and votes of confidence.

In the fall of 2011 Frank McCourt filed a lawsuit against MLB, accusing Selig of forcing bankruptcy on the Dodgers by rejecting a contract with Fox Sports. The Fox contract would have allowed McCourt to retain possession of the Dodgers, but as the Dodgers were under MLB control by then, Selig was within his bounds to reject it — even though it was similar in principle to contracts signed by many other MLB teams. The court sided with MLB, but not without a stern warning to Selig. Again Bud had deftly maneuvered borderline illegal practices with impunity. Selig knew the Dodgers would fetch an obscene sum in sale and he also knew that any buyer would have deep enough pockets to pour truckloads of cash into the franchise. The Mets on the other hand would receive the austerity plan, a painful rebuilding process focusing on cutting payroll and rejuvenating their farm … the polar antithesis of what transpired with the Dodgers.

A friend who was in San Diego during Alderson’s tenure there warned me, “Alderson,” he said “would chop the team up piecemeal and sell off the parts for prospects, it’s what he does.” I didn’t believe him. “This is N.Y.” I countered “Here you have to spend money to make money, the fans wouldn’t stand for it …” After losing, in successive seasons, Beltran, Reyes, and Dickey, with a budget effectively halved, I can only admit he was ostensibly on the mark.

The more pressing question, however, is one of influence. Selig has exerted his influence over the years with mixed results. His approach in 1994 backfired as the players hit back, and his attempts at collusion resulted in a 280 million dollar settlement against MLB … but his influence was largely successful in both the migration of the Expos as well as the funding of numerous new venues on the public’s dime. The real defeat he’s never been able to undo is his failure to limit free agency and his inability to institute a salary cap.

Bud Selig is friends with Fred Wilpon, but given Selig’s commitment to the almighty dollar don’t let a personal relationship fool you. Selig would just as soon pop open a can of Milwaukee’s finest than hesitate to throw Wilpon under a bus if it meant more money in the coffers. His reasons for coming to the rescue of the Wilpons while moving to oust McCourt, can only be explained with an eye on profit. You could argue this is contradictory, how would the “Met austerity paradigm” mean more money for baseball when the Dodgers just boosted values of MLB franchises across the country by raising the bar with their sale price?

It’s all about parity. As Jason Stark recently pointed out, MLB now features more parity than the NFL. If a small market approach can succeed in a big market it would effectively establish an operational model that could be duplicated in any number of cities big and small. Increased parity means more money across a broader spectrum of markets, precluding the need for revenue sharing mandates. Why didn’t Selig attempt a similar austerity program with the Dodgers? McCourt was himself imbued in impropriety and was openly hostile to MLB, his was a hopeless cause where the only resolution was a forced sale.

If Selig’s plan proceeds according to design, the Mets will benefit from a self sustaining minor league feeder system what will propel them to perennial contention while the Dodgers dig out from an array of bad contracts … but, there are no guarantees. Selig lost control of the Dodger situation once the winning bid was accepted. The Mets on the other hand were under his influence in so far as he was able to impress upon both the Wilpons and Sandy Alderson that they needed to cut payroll. Granted, under the circumstances the Wilpons didn’t have much choice, but when you consider Selig’s history and the fact that he got his man on the GM’s seat in NY, you have to believe he was pleased.

Whether or not this experiment benefits the Mets remains to be seen. Given the volume of pitching the Mets have been able to accumulate you have to feel good about the team’s prospects, no pun intended. The Dodgers on the other hand appear to be a flawed, injury prone, aging, and above all expensive mess. As far as business models, you can bet there will be lots of baseball minds keeping an eye on the Mets and Dodgers in the coming years.

NYC Blackout Shuts Out Shea In 1977

It had been a sweltering hot summer in NY, so hot that my dad and I had taken to sitting out in the backyard to listen to the games.  It was July 13, 1977, and the Mets were playing the Cubs. They were losing 2-1 in the bottom of the sixth in spite of  an 11-strikeout effort by Jerry Koosman. We were eating watermelon and cheese. I remember spitting watermelon seeds out towards the tomato plants occasionally bouncing a seed off the big red tomatoes hanging from the vines.

Jerry Koosman, who had always been good, had never been Tom Seaver great. If we went to a game and Koosman was pitching it was like getting almost what you wanted for Christmas, like getting a pair of Pro-Keds instead of the Converse hightops you had your eye on … I was 12, what did I know? I’d been spoiled by one of the greatest ever to pitch off a mound and I was still reeling from having lost my all-time favorite NY Met. With Seaver gone, you’d think I would have grown to appreciate Koosman’s ability, but it was just the opposite. I grew to resent Koosman even more because he wasn’t Tom Seaver. Koosman became something like a bad imitation, an imitation that offered no consolation when the real thing ended up being taken away forever.

So we listened to the game and swatted mosquitoes and ate watermelon and sharp Greek cheeses. My mom and my sister weren’t home because my sister was in class over at Queens College and my mom had taken the car to go pick her up. Normally my sister would take the bus, but lately my mom had become so worried about this .44 caliber killer the tabloids had tabbed “Son of Sam,” that she’d taken to driving her out and picking her up every night.

My sister also happened to be a long-haired brunette which apparently was a favorite target of this particular psycho. Anyway, we’re listening with Lenny Randle at the plate and Ray Burris pitching and suddenly there’s a roar in the crowd and Lindsey Nelson starts going on about the lights going out in the stadium and just as I was explaining to my Dad that the lights had gone out (he had a hard time with any English vocabulary that wasn’t specific to his remarkably complete baseball lexicon – he even knew what a balk was) the radio went dead. It didn’t hit us at first because there weren’t any lights in the backyard, so we were just kind of staring at the radio wondering what happened. Then we heard the yelling and screaming from all around us and realized the lights had gone out, all the lights, everywhere.
It was becoming a long night as we sat in the hot kitchen lit only with a few old Easter candles while my dad paced back and forth chain-smoking. We were waiting for my mom and sister to get home. We had no idea where they were or how they’d get back in the dark. Eventually they did manage to get home without getting shot or looted, well past 11:00 PM. We were just happy to be together and safe.

My sister later explained that Mom had pretty much driven the entire way never exceeding 15 miles per hour with the windows up and never coming to a full stop. We ended up laughing a little as my parents fretted about spoiled cheese and melted butter at the store (my family owned a small deli on Roosevelt Ave.), and after a while we didn’t even mind the dark so much as we drifted off to bed. The noise of the increasingly more distant and sporadic yelling continued to waft through our open windows throughout the night with my dad keeping a quiet vigil at the front of the house, guarding from whatever chaos might happen by.

My friend Andy from across the street who was three years my elder was at the game that night with his cousins. He told me all about it the following day the same way he’d retell rated R movies scene for scene, word for word. I’ll never forget listening to him recite Jaws in all it’s gory and suspenseful detail, I swear it took longer for him to retell the movie than the movie itself. It took him a week to finish the Exorcist.

Anyway he explained how they didn’t realize it was a city-wide blackout until they were filing out and heard from people who’d been in the upper decks that the entire grid was black. He described the strange scene on the field as the players drove their cars onto the outfield grass with their headlights on and mimed infield practice to entertain the fans while the organist played Christmas music. Emergency generators lit up parts of the the stands but many of the halls and corridors were pitch black. Eventually they tired of waiting and slowly made their way out. They ended up walking the entire way back to 98th street, Corona.

Thinking back to that summer I can’t imagine a more fitting metaphor to losing the Franchise, Tom Seaver, than being left dumbfounded in the dark with a dead radio in the middle of a game. They’d turned the lights out on us and herded us into the pitch-black unknown. I’ll never forget the front page of the Daily News, “Seaver to Reds; Kingman to S.D.” We couldn’t make any sense of it. I read the paper to my dad and we concluded it was all about money, but I was way too young to understand anything about free agency or renegotiating contracts or personal pride.

What precipitated the split was the new Collective Bargaining Agreement that was signed on July 12, 1976. It was the beginning of free agency. Only four months earlier, the Mets had signed Seaver to a three-year, $675,000 contract, and he was, at that time, baseball’s highest paid pitcher.

Later that winter as the first batch of free agents cashed in with players signing million dollar contracts (even Nolan Ryan ended up making more than Seaver as Gene Autry offered him a 300,000 dollar base salary in lieu of Nolan’s impending free agency), Seaver wanted to renegotiate. But the bitter pill for fans came after the realization that there was actually a renegotiated contract in place that would have kept Seaver in Queens when a story by Dick Young appeared in the Daily News describing how Nancy Seaver was jealous of the Ryans.

That was it for Tom Terrific, he wanted out and he got his way.  None of the participants, not Seaver, not Grant, not Young, not even Nancy, ever stopped to consider that their actions would leave some kid out in Queens very much … in the dark … eating cheese, and spitting watermelon seeds.

The study took a considerable sampling of data and integrated a comprehensive review of previous research. It focussed on whether or not replacement managers were able to generate increased output from individual players.

I’d read some reviews of the study prior to actually reading the study itself (waiting for adobe to update), and most of the secondary commentary seemed to take the study’s abstract conclusions and run with them without bothering to look into the text, which appeared, (at least to this reader) to be speckled with disclaimers and reservations. To be fair, numerous readers took issue with the fact that by looking strictly at individual performance the study neglected the ultimate benchmark — winning — which is potentially problematic because winning and individual performance don’t always correlate. By looking strictly at performance, however, you eliminate strength of schedule as a factor, not to mention the impact of injuries, trades, changes in batting order and so on.

The author estimated the impact of managers on player performance using a sample of major-league baseball players from 1980 to 2009, available from Baseball-Databank.org. He estimated Equation 1 using the Baltagi and Wu (1999) random-effects method, which corrects for detected first-order serial correlation.

(1) Performanceiy = γ Manageriy+ β1 League Performancey + β2 Career Performancei + β3 Ageiy + β4 Ageiy2 + θ Parkiy + νi+ εiy

Performance is the individual performance of player i in year y. Manager is a vector of individual manager dummy variables. For hitters, performance is measured using on-base-plus-slugging (OPS), which is a simple metric for measuring how effective a hitter is at producing runs. For pitchers, performance is measured using earned run average (ERA). The coefficients for the dummy variables in vector γ should reflect the impact that individual managers have on player output. League Performance is the league average OPS for hitters and league average ERA for pitchers. The league average controls for fluctuations in run scoring in the leagues may cause deviations in performance across leagues and over time. Career Performance measures the quality of the observed players by averaging the performance of each player over his entire career, which normally spans several managers.

Of the 134 managers in the sample, the estimates for 25 managers are statistically significant at the ten-percent level for hitters. 21 managers are associated with improvement and four managers are associated with a decline. For pitchers, the estimates for 24 managers are statistically significant at the ten-percent level. 15 managers are associated with player improvement and nine managers are associated with a performance decline. Five managers are associated with improvement and decline for both groups; however, in all cases, the managers are associated with the opposite effect for the two groups of players. Thus, no manager is associated with improving performance for both offense and defense.
The results indicate that if managers have some influence on player performance, the impact is small and difficult to identify.

Baseball Between the Numbers, analyst James Click also tried to tease some signs of managerial impact out of statistical record but came up empty. After examining the measurable effect of in-game strategies (bunting, stolen bases, intentional walks), wins and losses relative to run differential, playing time distribution, in-game substitutions (pinch-hitters, relief pitchers, and defensive replacements), and direct impact on player performance (coaching), Click was unable to find evidence of a repeatable skill in any one of those five areas for any of the 456 managers he studied. That is to say that, much like clutch hitting, individual performances varied so much from season to season that the results appeared to be as much the result of chance as anything else.

There was also the 2006 study by James Cliff in which he stated:

“Only six times in thirty-three years has any manager used sacrifice attempts, stolen base attempts, and intentional walks to increase his team’s win expectation over an entire season. Even the best managers cost their team more than a game per season by employing these tactics. At worst they can cost a team three games per season.”

Finally, Chris Jaffe wrote a definitive and comprehensive analysis of Manager competency and effect in his book, Evaluating Baseball’s Managers. A History and Analysis of Performance in the Major Leagues, 1876-2008. (highly recommended). In it he more or less shows that good managers don’t have much of an effect, and even bad managers don’t do as much harm as you might think.

Independent of whatever considerable support the argument that managers don’t matter may have, I still have my reservations. In the first study above, OPS doesn’t correlate with winning as much as several other statistics, namely runs scored, but even more troublesome is one very problematic variable – the unearned run.

Unearned runs are not like other runs, they are the neglected stepchildren of baseball, they are the runt of the litter that nobody wants, they are the ugly babies that the Spartans would throw off a cliff. The problem with unearned runs is that outside of an error here or there, no one is truly accountable for them. Defensive metrics being what they are, a study that looks at changes in offensive output and ERA doesn’t control for runs that cross the plate that are unearned. The unearned run can be a death knell in the late innings. It can also be an indication that defensive alignment isn’t what it should be, fundamental defensive practices may not be in place, and players may simply not be well coached.

Defense appeared to be lumped together as one of many variables affecting ERA. Compounding this problem is the fact that the unearned run may be a direct result of poor defense. This omission renders  an entire competitive dimension (team defense) inconsequential, when any fan can tell you it is not.

You can make a strong argument that while a player can rise to the major leagues on a given set of abilities such as hitting and throwing, defense, perhaps more so than any other aspect of the game, may be a reflection of focus, preparation, and most importantly (for purposes of this argument), effort … These traits are inexorably linked to good coaching. Bear in mind it was defense (among other things) that let the Mets down in the late innings of the series vs. the Marlins. Defense may in fact be the greatest litmus for a manager’s overall effectiveness, but in the end how do you measure a leader’s ability to get his players to “run through walls” for him?

There are countless anecdotal narratives that run contrary to the claim that managers don’t matter — there have been numerous cases where a change has resulted in a dramatic turn-around. Buck Schowalter of the Orioles as recently as 2011 changed his team’s fortunes almost upon his arrival. Could it be that given a manager’s already marginal impact on the field of play (as shown in multiple studies) it takes a really tremendous manager to actually effect a turn-around? Well, if this is true, and it may be, it would undermine the broader argument that manager’s don’t make much of a difference no matter how good (or bad) they may be because it would imply that while most managers are mediocre (which is why broad based studies show a negligible effect) the exceptional ones do make a difference.

In the end we are left with the possibility that a manager’s effect may not be measurable by any conventional analysis. How do you measure inspiration? How do you quantify cohesion? How do you control for that little bit of effort that could be the difference between a run saved and another loss?

As much as Bill James and Nate Silver and others have tried to quantify managerial performance, it is an elusive and ethereal component of the game that is far too complex to pin down with metrics.

I’ve always gotten the sense that Sandy Alderson ascribes to the premise that managers don’t really make much of a difference. Even great managers after all make about as much as a middle reliever. In a baseball landscape where value in wins has become a catchphrase, the numbers people will tell you that the difference between a truly extraordinary manager like a Herzog or a Cox or a Hodges, and an Art Howe is maybe 3 to 5 wins over the course of a season, if that …

My contention nevertheless resides primarily in all those intangible inspirational and interpersonal aspects of the game that numbers can’t speak to, warm fuzzies such as determination, camaraderie, and above all, hope. There is nothing like giving a band of dejected players immersed in patterns of learned helplessness the gift of believing in themselves and in each other. How do you measure that? And yes, that sounds like something only a select few exceptional leaders would be able to pull off.

It’s always been a glaring paradox to me how an organization that in practice may marginalize the role of the manager, will, with the same breath trumpet the importunate significance of a good development program. Your manager, and your development program, are in practice part of the same operational system. In the end, having seen exceptional coaches take rag tag assemblages of high school kids and transform them into champions, I can’t in good conscience ascribe to the notion that coaches, managers, and leaders, don’t play a role in that effort. They matter, but they matter in ways that relate more to the spirit than they do to numbers on the field.

As Vince Lombardi once said:

“The spirit, the will to win and the will to excel – these are the things that endure and these are the qualities that are so much more important than any of the events that occasion them.”

A robot would probably have put in Juan Lagares instead of Collin Cowgill in the late innings last night … That’s because robots are nothing if not logical. Robots don’t go on intuition or hunches, they don’t make bullpen decisions based on their gut … Their guts are wires and blinking lights and oil cans and stuff. Robots don’t have “favorites,” ever.

A robot would not have told Jeurys Familia to walk Solano on a 1 – 2 count. To a robot that would not compute, you’d probably start seeing smoke coming out of the robot’s ears and it’s head would start spinning around if it made a move like that.

A robot manager could also squirt Gatorade directly into players’ mouths and blast them  with super-cold frozen carbon dioxide vapor when it’s real hot out.

Another good thing about Robots is that they wouldn’t get snippy during the postgame press conference for being second guessed neither. A robot also wouldn’t snap at the guy from the New York Post for asking about the weird double switch. See sometimes you get the sense that Terry Collins pulls the double switch because he likes how it looks on a scorecard and makes people think he’s doing his job.

“Yeah, had to pull three double switches tonight, honey… Boy am I bushed.”

A robot would use the double switch only when there was a logical reason for one … like taking out Lucas Duda. A robot would never forget to take Lucas Duda out in the late innings, Lucas Duda’s defensive metrics would be hard wired into the robot’s circuitry, “no hard feelings Lucas … bmeep bmeep bmoop bmoop.” Also, a Robot wouldn’t refuse to play Valdespin because Valdespin is irritating and obnoxious. Robots don’t have feelings, a robot wouldn’t care if Valdespin beats his chest after a triple.

A robot manager could also wax the floor of the dugout during a game.

You could also train a gorilla to be manager. They’ve taught some gorillas to use hand signals you know, how hard could it be? You’d have to get him into a uniform of course … I’m sure a few of Dave Kingman’s old jerseys are still around somewhere. The gorilla could just signal for a bunt with David Wright up and no one on base … He wouldn’t even have to follow the game, you could teach the gorilla six or seven signs and have him randomly use them during the game. So he might call for a triple steal or pull his starter after only one inning. A gorilla also wouldn’t care if Valdespin beats his chest after a triple, he’d probably beat his chest in response. Not only would it be a big improvement over Terry Collins, it would be hugely entertaining, win-win! You might want to equip Hudgens with a deluxe pooper-scooper to take care of any “accidents,” if you go the gorilla route.

Or you could pay a fifth-grader to be the manager. They will often work for candy and gum, and they can be pretty smart, especially the ones who read books and stuff. If the kid yells at Tim McClelland because he fell asleep or maybe had a small stroke between pitches McClelland can’t eject him because the kid would be too young to go unsupervised. I know McClelland is slow to call balls and strikes but I swear there were times last night where he was waiting to see how the batter would react so he could call the opposite, just to screw with the hitters for being so unbelievably awful. I don’t blame him really.

A fifth-grader might even be able to get away with kicking the umpire in the shin. If a fifth grader were running things every baserunner would steal on every pitch. Hitters would swing at everything, the hit and run sign would always be on. Runners would steal home as soon as they got to third base, it would be pure chaos! (The awesome kind not the boring Ike Davis kind.) You could put Dan Warthen in charge of getting the kid cotton candy and hot dogs and bubble gum … the kid might need his own bullpen cart but it’s a small price really …

Baseball is a game of adjustments. The Mets under Dave Hudgens’ tutelage have adopted a doctrine of selectivity that emphasizes seeing lots of pitches, running up pitch-counts, zoning in on your pitch, and ultimately getting on base one way or another. There has been a lot of discussion on MMO about whether this approach is effective. The consensus, bolstered by a pile of data, seems to be that it is. Teams that take lots of pitches get on base more, teams that get on base score more runs … but if we’ve learned anything from following baseball over the years, it’s that successful trends tend to be attacked from every angle until a weakness is isolated and exploited.

The pitching side will adjust sooner or later, if they haven’t already. We saw the Giants, Nationals and Phillies come through Flushing late last summer pounding the zone, and it seemed like just about every one of our hitters were behind in the count before you could blink. Quality pitchers will do that to you … we have one of our own in Matt Harvey who has been doing that to opposing lineups routinely. Keith Hernandez noted on several occasions last year that when facing top-tier pitchers like Lee and Gonzales, the Mets struggled to adjust.

One problem that I’ve had with the Mets high OBP philosophy has been the blanket application of this approach system wide, with little regard to individual skill sets. You get the sense that they’re trying to squeeze more than a few round pegs into square holes … Not only does this fail with players who simply don’t have the aptitude to adjust (Kirk maybe?), but, there may actually be a place for the unpredictable aggressive hitter in a good lineup, if only to keep opposing pitchers honest.

First pitch strikes are up all over the league as a result of teams trying to be more selective and early indications are that hitters are taking these pitches. Most hitters that is … John Buck, hasn’t been one of them. John Buck, who has never been a very patient hitter, has been even less patient in 2013.

Watching the Met lineup this year has been entertaining. Any combination of lead-off hitters will take take take, swing … Murphy will take swing take take swing,  Wright will take a bunch of pitches then hit a triple, Ike will sometimes swing at the first pitch then take a bunch of borderline called strikes then he’ll whine and fuss and grimace, Duda seems like he walks every other at bat, then Buck will come up and launch a first pitch fastball 460 feet. He’s taking pitchers off guard. They get locked into this pattern of trying to get ahead with fastballs (because the rest of the lineup is so gosh darned selective), by the time Buck comes up it’s easy pickings.

Buck’s first pitch strike percentage has jumped from 61.1% last season, to 69.4% this year. His walk rate? After two seasons where he set career highs in BB% (which could very well be why the Mets were interested in him in the first place), this season he has seen his walk rate drop from 12.3% last year to 3.0% in 66 plate appearances so far in 2013. Go ahead, try and make sense of that.

When you look at other plate discipline metrics they’re all fairly comparable to his career norms with a few exceptions, his contact rates. Buck has a surprising 69% contact rate on pitches thrown outside the strike zone (o-contact %) and a whopping 85.1% contact rate on pitches thrown inside the zone (z-contact %). He’s not really being more selective, he’s just not missing pitches when he swings.

Buck’s contact metrics are up across the board, and at 9.9% his swinging strike percentage is at a career low. He’s not swinging any less either, he’s as aggressive (both in and out of the zone) as he’s ever been and he’s walking way less even though he is playing for a team that preaches being selective (!) … and, he’s been wildly successful. Why? Because his contact rates are up. Well, why are his contact rates up? Because he’s been dropped into this very patient lineup and he’s reaping all the benefits of clobbering fastballs off pitchers who come in pounding the zone … to the tune of  7 home runs and 22 RBI while hitting .290/.303/.661.

John Buck’s contact rates over the past 4 seasons:

The lesson here? Variety … the spice of life as they say. I like the selective/patient approach as much as anyone, I like the idea of running pitch counts up and long at bats — they annoy pitchers and tire them out at the very least, but you have to mix in a few free radicals to keep pitchers off balance. As a pitcher it’s a lot more difficult to prepare for a lineup reflecting a bunch of diverse skill sets than a homogenous always-patient top to bottom bunch. It’s really what made the 86 Mets so devastating.

It’s hard for a pitcher who gets accustomed to pounding the zone to suddenly alter his approach here, and there, and again there … they are less likely to get into a groove. This is why I advocated from the beginning for letting Kirk play to his aggressive tendencies in the 6 or 7 spot rather than forcing him into the lead-off role, but noooo, Terry Collins had to try him in the lead-off role … Exploiting pitchers who get into the habit of grooving early strikes is also probably why Ike hit so many first pitch home runs last year.

Again, not a knock on “selective aggression” or whatever Hudgens calls it, but there were times last year when I felt like the lineup stagnated because there were too many predictable hitters who seemed to have identical approaches. They were vulnerable to pitchers who worked inside the strike-zone. Carefully embedding a few aggressive hackers in a patient lineup may result in more of what we’re seeing with Buck.

Eventually the league will adjust and stop throwing Buck these fat first pitch fastballs, at that point we may see an up-tick in walks and we’ll see if he in turn can adjust … but the premise should still hold. There is a benefit to carefully placing a few aggressive hitters in an otherwise selective lineup because they stand a good chance of capitalizing on pitchers who adjust by pounding the strike zone early in the count.

Call Washington, I think we just made Contact.

JAYSON WERTH WHIFFS: Sit your ass down, sucker!

You know that feeling when Scott Rice walked the first two batters in the 8th inning yesterday with the Mets clinging to a 2 run lead? Kind of a helpless sense of doom and despair where you can’t bear to watch? With a little help from Jayson Werth the result didn’t turn out like so many other late-inning debacles have, but as I exhaled and wiped the sweat from my forehead it got me thinking about the psychological effects of these recurring meltdowns.

Lets consider for a moment a couple of researchers who tortured some dogs for the sake of behavioral science. Like Pavlov only more twisted … they conditioned these animals to expect an electric shock after they heard a tone. Initially the dogs would leap and jerk and look for escape in an attempt to avoid the shock, but after a while the dogs became conditioned to the stimulus and quit trying to avoid it. Once the animals were thus acclimated, the researchers observed that even when the animals were presented with a lowered wall in their boxes they made no attempt to jump over it. Even with a clear avenue of escape, they did nothing to avoid the shock. The researchers were Martin Seligman and Steven F. Maier, who went on to develop a theory they called “Learned Helplessness.”

Now lets look at an unpleasant set of random shocks that the Mets have experienced over the past six seasons:

September 27, 2007

After a 3-0 loss to the Saint Louis Cardinals the Mets are tied with the Phillies atop their division. Between the beginning of their September 14th series against the Phillies and the start of last night’s game against Saint Louis, Mets relievers have given up 30 earned runs for a 6.54 ERA. The Mets are 4 and 10 in their last 14 games.

September 21. 2008

With 7 games to go and the Mets clinging to a shot at the post season, Aaron Heilman gives up a two-run double to Martin Prado that gave the Braves a 7-4 lead rendering Carlos Delgado‘s two-run home run in the ninth inning irrelevant. It was the 16^th blown save since the All-Star break.

August 21, 2011

After another masterful performance by R.A. Dickey, Manny Acosta walks Nyjer Morgan to start the inning. With runners on first and third and two runs in, Tim Byrdak is brought in to pitch to Prince Fielder who hits a routine double play ball to second base. Justin Turner makes a wide throw on the double play attempt as the winning run crosses the plate. The Mets fall to 6 games under .500.

July 18, 2012

With the Mets only 5 games out of the wild card, Miguel Batista in relief of Chris Young comes in and gets two quick outs. He then allows two singles to Jesus Flores and Roger Bernadina before allowing a 2-run double to Steve Lombardozzi putting the Nationals ahead 4-1. Riding a 6 game losing streak the Mets bullpen ranks last in the Majors with a 5.03 ERA.

April 18, 2013

The Mets are swept in a weather-shortened three game set in Denver as Met relievers give up 18 runs to the Rockies.

April 20, 2013

After coming back from three runs down in the 4^th inning to take a 5 – 3 lead, the Mets bullpen gives up 4 runs as the Nationals win 7 – 6 on a Saturday game following an inspiring win by Matt Harvey.  The Met bullpen has given up 28 earned runs so far this season. As of this writing the Mets have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball.

No escape … Learned Helplessness.

The “D” adjectives keep coming … disheartening, demoralizing, deflating … Met fans have been stuck in a perpetual electro-shock holding pattern for the greater part of a decade owing primarily to this organization’s persistent inability to construct even a league average bullpen. We know this, we’ve been over this ad nauseam … the above list is just a sampling, there were other grueling losses, too many to list.

In May of 1978, Diener and Dweck published a fascinating analysis of Learned Helplessness in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in which they concluded that helpless children showed marked decrements in performance when put in situations where they failed, whereas children who were oriented to mastery focused more on self-monitoring and self-instruction. The study looked specifically at the attribution of failure in these learners. It was posited that for helpless children (their “helplessness” was based on how they perceived the tasks), failure was internalized and attributed to a lack of ability (even when that wasn’t necessarily the case), while mastery oriented children tended to engage in more positive behaviors following a failed attempt.

Learners who are conditioned to fail, show performance decrements with each failure. They give up, they stop trying, even when subsequently presented with tasks that are well within their ability, they stumble. Like the dogs in the electrified pens, they neglect to look for a solution, they acquiesce to their condition.

Baseball players are only human and they reflect the same patterns of response to failure that any of us might, but bullpen meltdowns are unlike other kinds of failures in some very important ways. They tend to be games that were “in the bag” at some point – which is to say many other aspects of the team’s play (namely starting pitching and offense) were successful for the greater part of the contest. The team played well, the team should have won, but the game unraveled somehow at the very end. These losses are gut punches to morale, exasperating in that they reinforce a sense of helplessness … no matter how well you play, no matter how many runs you drive in or how well your starting pitcher performs, you become conditioned to believing that the bullpen will find a way to give it up.

Players can only suffer through so many games of this sort before they stop investing their heart and soul into a game’s outcome – if only to preserve their sanity. You might call it developing a thick skin, letting failure bounce off of you, turning the page — there are lots of clichés to describe moving past failure — but, in the end, acclimating to failure increases the likelihood that it will recur. As shown in the study above, failure itself can be toxic — individuals conditioned to fail show decrements in performance relative to individuals oriented towards success even when their ability levels are commensurate.

This should not be confused with the notion that a good reliever has to have the temerity to ignore the occasional bad performance … that trait is advanced by the innate confidence that the reliever will return to his successful norm. The above has more to do with players who experience repeated failure, and thus begin to expect it.

Take two kids of equal ability who are learning to play shortstop. With player one you hit 20 hard smashes always just out of his reach. Then you bounce 20 routine grounders to player two. Follow that up by giving both players an identical set of grounders at a variety of difficulty levels and you will find that the player conditioned to failure is likely to make more errors than the player who handled the easy grounders. This is why coaches like to end sessions with a few successful reps.

Over the past few seasons the Mets have been conditioned to the late inning (and the late season) collapse. Beyond the hard work and talent unquestionably necessary to reverse this malaise of the spirit, this team needs individuals who refuse to turn the page, individuals who do not accept the loss. Sometimes all it takes is one guy. In 1967 it was Tom Seaver, perhaps Matt Harvey can act as this sort of catalyst in 2013. We need more Matt Harveys, we need players who refuse to acquiesce to failure.

But you absolutely have to have a bullpen that will hold it’s own and prevent these recurring gut-wrenching morale-killing failure-conditioning losses, because one thing is certain, you can only take so many late inning meltdowns before the dog decides to just stay in the box.

The day started off on a sour note. I had my weekend MMO press credential clipped to my tie as I walked up to Target Field to see the Mets take on the Twins. I arrived on time for the pregame press conference only to be confronted by a big no-nonsense Security Guard at the entrance to the Met clubhouse. I explained to him that I was with Metsmerized Online, that I had a press credential. Didn’t matter. My credential included a field pass and access to the press box but not the clubhouse. “See, right there,” he said pointing to my card. “But I got in last night,” I said. “Terry Collins said we should be back at 11:45.” He just shrugged his shoulders. I felt like I did in the third grade when I couldn’t go on the field trip to the zoo because I forgot to get my permission slip.

I decided to walk out onto the field and calm down. Watching the groundskeepers on this frosty April morning prepare the field was about as soothing an image as I could ask for under the circumstances. I’d take it in stride and do what I could outside of attending the press briefing I thought. I went back up to the press box and started sorting through some pictures and chatting with some of the Minnesota press corps. They were about as nice a group of guys as you could assemble. Maybe they knew I’d been left out and were trying to cheer me up, or, maybe it was a Minnesota thing. People in Minnesota sure can be nice. I saw that the Mets had gone back out to the field and figured I’d head out and take some photos.

I went down the elevator into the bowels of Target Field (sub level -2!) with food prep people and racks and racks of cotton candy lining the long circular corridor … I turned down a door marked “Field Access” and walked up beside the Met dugout.

I could see David Wright signing some autographs, Justin Turner clowning around with his bright red beard, different groups of players stretching. Eventually one of the conditioning coaches came out and guided the majority of the team in what looked like some sort of abbreviated stretching routine. It reminded me of boot camp only the salary here was probably a little better.

At that point I notice Sandy Alderson walk up from the dugout. He looked around and started up a conversation with Jay Horwitz. I thought here’s my chance, go up and ask for an interview. I paced around awkwardly and finally just walked over and introduced myself and my affiliation with MMO, and asked Sandy if he could answer some questions.

Amazingly, he agreed, which took me completely off guard – I was expecting him to say “Sorry, no time.” I’d gone into this way too quickly. My mind went blank. He looked at me, waiting. “Hmm lets see,” I said, trying to stall. C’mon brain, DO something, THINK … a question, ANY question. I was about to blurt out “So how about this weather?” when all of my many Mets related questions came flooding back. It’s a good thing too because I think Sandy was about to walk away, most likely thinking they’re missing one at the funny farm.

I held up my handy iTouch video recorder and began. My first question was about the Stanton rumors which he responded to by cutting me off with a simple emphatic, “No.” No? I thought? That’s it? No to what, the question, or did he reconsider granting the interview? Another awkward pause. Fortunately I gathered my senses and asked for clarification. When it was all said and done he’d graciously answered every question. What a great guy I thought as I walked away. I couldn’t wait to watch the replay when I looked down at my recording device and noticed … I hadn’t pressed the record button.

I felt dizzy, the stadium was spinning around me as the blood rose to my head and I started to sweat. I went up and down the steps searching for the video in vain but it was not there, it would never be there. I wanted to punch myself in the face 26 times and then I wanted to bang my head against the concrete wall another 17 times or so until I’d pass out, but I didn’t because the security guards were eying me suspiciously by then. Maybe I could find an out of the way empty room where I could scream for about 10 minutes. I couldn’t believe it. My one chance and I’d blown it spectacularly.

I dragged my sorry self back up to the press box running the interview over in my head. Maybe I could go back and ask him for another interview? HA! He’d really think I was crazy. “Excuse me sir, but I forgot to press this big red button the first time, could we do the whole thing over again?” Yeah, not happening. The day was turning into a nightmare, with my luck Harvey would get shelled and blow his elbow out.

I went back up with the same dejected look on my face that I had after I’d missed the press briefing.They must have thought jeez why are these Mets people so sad? I told a couple of the guys about the video and, surprisingly, they said “yeah, it happens.” Which made me feel quite a bit better. “Get it down on paper.” They said. So I did.

By the time I was done the game was about to start and I thought the written interview and commentary afterwards wasn’t half bad. There were a lot more people around by then and there was a buzz in the air. I got up to use the rest room and turned a corner too quick nearly running into Keith Hernandez. I looked up and thought, wow, it’s Keith Hernandez … look like you belong Matt look like you belong … I nodded my head in greeting and he looked at me suspiciously, like he knew what I was up to or something (I swear I’m not making that up) … I think maybe he was messing with me. Keith is an interesting guy … he should run for Mayor.

The day turned out to be a pretty good day after all. Harvey was again unbelievable, pitching a no-hitter through six and two-thirds innings. The Mets won 4 – 2. Jay Horwitz talked to the uptight security guard and got me into the post game briefing, and the Mets had saved me yet again from my own foolishness.

Its always interesting when you hear the opposing press rave about a player. Patrick Reusse, legendary Twin Cities sportswriter, and a few others peppered me with questions about Harvey as I was one of the first members of the Mets press to arrive last Saturday before Harvey’s start.

“How hard does he throw?” “How’s his command?  “How’s his breaking ball?” “Is he as good as he was last year?”

They were clearly intrigued by our phenomenal young starter.

“He reminds me of Tom Seaver,” I said, “Big righthander, late life up in the zone with his fastball. His strikeout rates are actually comparable, maybe a little better.”

Funny thing, don’t mention Tom Seaver to Patrick Reusse. While Tom Terrific is revered in Met circles like no one else, I quickly realized following a remarkably colorful string of expletives (that all but made me spit my coffee out laughing), this isn’t necessarily the case in other circles.

“Harvey seems like a nice kid,” I interjected. “Soft spoken, low key.”

Reusse raised his eyebrows and laughed, “He sure isn’t like that on the mound.”

I had to concur there, Mr. Harvey is all business when he takes the hill.

“I think he’s actually been better than he was last year, his command is better.” I said, as Mr. Reusse did a double take.

Harvey’s biggest goal in the off-season and during the spring, by his own admission, was to improve his command so that he could work deeper into games. So far so good.

His changeup and slider have been working well, he’s been able to mix his pitches and change speeds both with his fastball and his changeup  He’s worked his slider inside to left-handed batters, using it almost like a cut fastball with marvelous effectiveness (one notable exception), while spotting his fastball with pinpoint accuracy.

Harvey’s also been able to dial up his velocity in key spots late in games, causing you to overhear things like “reminds me of Justin Verlander that way.”

Harvey mentioned during the press briefing that his curveball needs some work, that it’s been up at times. Difficult to imagine what he’ll be like if he can get his breaking pitch working right.

Below are a collection of quotes by his teammates from the post game press conference following his last start:

Kevin Burkhardt: Asks Marlon Byrd, “After 13 starts does he wow you a little bit with the way he pitched tonight?”

Marlon Byrd: “He looks like he’s pitched 1,300. He’s one of those guys, certain guys, you know he’s bringing it to the table, that bulldog mentality.”

“To be young and throw 97 and be able to use his other pitches like he does. He hits his spots. You know he’s going to work hard and we’re going to work hard for him. It”s nice, it’s nice when he’s out there, you try to get a run or two and you know you have a chance to win.”

Burkhardt: Asks John Buck, “What has it been like catching his first 3 starts?”

Buck: “Yeah it”s a lot of fun, gives you a lot of weapons to work with. The most exciting part about it is right after, he wants to evaluate his starts, to say, ‘hey, what could we have done better here and here,’ he’s not satisfied. He knows there’s room to improve. He also liked to go over some of the good sequences as well , he’ definitely looking to get better.”

Burkhardt: ”When he asks you what can he do to get better, what do you tell him?”

Buck: “Usually it’s like a sequence I know, like a certain particular sequence, or a hitter, or when he’s had a long inning, being ready for the first hitter, little things like that, he pays attention to detail, those are the little things he wants to get better at and repeat better. That’s exciting for me.”

On whether Buck was worried about how the home run would affect his mindset:

Buck: “Yeah, no, that’s one of his pluses. To be able to stay focused. I don’t think we’ll ever see Harv back off. If anything I have to ask him to, especially in that situation. I think David went out there to see but he quickly turned away. I think he saw he (Harvey) was pretty locked in.”

* * * * * * * * * * * *

For Met fans, the excitement in the air every time Harvey starts is palpable. We find ourselves throwing out “not since … ” comments with every batter he blows away, with every overpowering high fastball.

You don’t want to miss a pitch, you hurry and grab a sandwich before his next inning. But what continues to impresses me like nothing else after these first three starts of his season is his demeanor, his understated intensity and his desire to improve.

This kid is the definition of “special.”

We’ve got a good one on our hands Mets fans.

Sandy Alderson and Jay Horwitz chat before start of today’s game. (Photo: Matt Balasis, MMO)

Updated by Joe D. on April 15 at 12:00 PM

The reaction to Matt’s interview with Mets GM Sandy Alderson has been stunning. Over 25,000 different visitors have read the post and as I was telling Shannon of Mets Media Relations, it’s been talked about on WFAN and posted or linked to on over two dozen mainstream sites including MLB Trade Rumors, ESPN, Fox Sports, Yahoo, USA Today, MetsBlog and the Daily News to name a few.

In all fairness, regarding the Giancarlo Stanton rumor which originated with Andy Martino of the Daily News, and was covered on MMO in a post that eclipsed 300 comments, Martino offered a reply to Alderson’s denial that there were any recent conversations and wanted to add his comments here:

Just updating our item from last Thursday on the Mets’ interest in Miami outfielder Giancarlo Stanton. Two pieces of news trickled out over the weekend that both confirmed the Mets’ end of the story and moved forward the Marlins’ end beyond what we wrote.

In the original column, I reported that Sandy Alderson and Marlins GM Larry Beinfest spoke at a minor league game in Jupiter, Fla. This was probably early March. One good Mets source told me that two discussed Stanton, and that “there was heat there.” He was not talking about the temperature in Florida, but his team’s strong interest in the young slugger.

But another Mets person, also reliable, said he wasn’t sure if Stanton came up in the conversation that day. Alderson did not return a phone call seeking clarification, so I wrote what I knew to be accurate: One source said they talked Stanton, one said they talked about something or other. Regardless, we know the Mets are eyeing Stanton in their search for a marquee outfielder.

This weekend in Minnesota, Matt Balasis of Mets Merized Online spoke to Alderson. The GM, in a backhanded way, acknowledged that the teams had talked during spring training (he also said there was nothing happening now. To be clear, I never reported, suggested or implied that the teams were talking now).

To be clear, Alderson said they haven’t talked since “early spring training”. So we are talking about well over a month ago. Also, as Matt tells it, the exchange as it took place told more than just the words alone:

I wish I had video footage of the interview. When I mentioned Stanton for Wheeler and D’Arnaud he scoffed and just said “No,” then there was an awkward pause.

I followed up and said, “So there’s nothing to the rumors?”

And that’s when he said they hadn’t spoken since early spring. He was very, very clear that there was nothing to the recent rumors.

Anyway, both Andy and Matt added more context to the story regarding the Stanton rumor. Though while it was incredibly fun to consider, it was never nothing more than a longshot at best and one that ran out of steam over a month ago.

Original Post by Matt Balasis on April 13 at 8:00 PM

I had a chance to chat with Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson today during batting practice before the game at Target Field. I thought he gave me some very interesting answers on a number of different Mets topics. My thoughts follow the interview. Enjoy…

MMO: On the Stanton rumors, they’ve been all over the news, are there any truth to them?

Sandy: No, no we haven’t had any conversations with them since early spring.

MMO: Will adding players and payroll at the break be based on how well the team is doing or whether revenue is up?

Sandy: You mean adding players? If we feel the team is doing well we will add players.

MMO: Adding payroll, will you base that decision more on revenue or performance or both?

Sandy: Performance, but if we are winning, revenue will be up.

MMO: How do you feel about organizational depth as a whole? This is an organization that’s had poor organizational depth for a long time.

Sandy: It’s getting better. We are starting to see some effects of improved depth and we should be seeing more in the near future.

Sandy Alderson watching his team take batting practice before today’s game. (Photo: Matt Balsis, MMO)

MMO: If Buck keeps hitting the way he has been, how will you handle it when D’Arnaud comes up? Will you keep playing Buck or will he take on more of a mentor’s role?

Sandy: We’ll find a way to play both of them.

MMO: Any chance you will trade Buck?

Sandy: No. We are not trading Buck.

MMO: How do you feel about the bullpen, this team has struggled with bullpen depth for the greater part of the past decade?

Sandy: The Bullpen seems to be doing well, we still have Fransicso rehabbing and Familia down there so we feel we have some good depth there.

MMO: How do you feel about the team’s performance as a whole?

Sandy: Well it’s only been 10 games.

Thoughts from Matt

I got the sense that there is nothing to the Stanton rumors at all. A lot of the press around me seem to agree as well. Totally unfounded …

Overall I get the impression from watching Sandy interact around his players that while he does appear to be a consummate professional and an exemplary administrator, this is not the uncaring hatchet man he’s been accused of being.

The players joked around a lot (especially Justin Turner) with Horwitz and Collins, but with the exception of a short exchange between Wright and Sandy, there was little fraternization between Alderson and the players.

Nevertheless, he was intent and focused on the players and I would venture to say passionate even, which came out more during the interview when it was obvious the guy cares about this team.

As fans it’s probably difficult for us to distinguish between the job’s specifics and the person. A good General Manager can’t get too attached to his players, a good GM will deal a player when it improves the team.

As much as many of us have lamented the loss of some of our favorite players, this young season has been a case in point for why big long contracts and players whose game is dependent on their legs are risky propositions.

We want to thank Sandy for being gracious enough to answer a few questions for us. It was a pleasure to hear him respond to so many of the questions on many Mets fans minds. We appreciated the time he took to answer them.

I’ll be back at Target Field again on Sunday, and hope to have more video, pictures and maybe a surprise interview or two.

Of all the players I ran into over the weekend Niese somehow stood out. He carries himself well, he’s bigger than I thought (actually they’re all bigger than you think – they’re like on a different scale), he’s soft spoken and unassuming and just seems like a really nice guy.

Jonathon Niese was born on October 27th 1986, the day the Mets won their last World Series. Talk about cosmic coincidences. He was picked 209th overall in the 2005 draft, and he spent time at all three levels of the Mets minor league system where his numbers were good but not great. His best year was probably his 2008 season in Binghampton when in 22 games he had a 3.04 ERA. The season before in St. Lucie he’d gone 11-7 with a 4.19 ERA. At the age of 22 while at AAA Buffalo in the midst of a stretch where he’d pitched to a 3.82 ERA over 16 games he got the call.

My first impression of him was that he was ok, nothing special. He gave up a homerun to his first batter, Rickie Weeks, and ended up surrendering three runs in three innings. Not so good, I thought. Maybe a back end number 4 type guy at best. Then in his next start Jonathan Seagu … er, Niese, surprised me, pitching 8 shutout innings to beat the Braves 5-0. What I noticed was the sweet arcing trajectory of his beautiful southpaw curveball. A true hammer. Jonathon had defied my initial impression with that performance.

Niese got called up again in 2009 after Oliver Perez got hurt. He pitched to a 4.21 ERA that year making only 5 starts before he suffered a complete tear of his hamstring and had to miss the rest of the season. Niese went 10-9 in 2010 with a 4.20 ERA and 11–11 in 2011 with a 4.40 ERA and it was looking like my initial assessment was maybe not so far from the truth, middle to back end of the rotation kind of guy.  But like Jonathan Seagull’s doubters (a seagull cannot fly like a hawk!)  I was focusing too much on his limitations …

Niese had rhinoplasty after the 2011 season at the urging of ex-teammate Carlos Beltran. I knew what this was. Nasal deformity can result from skeletal hypoplasia or skeletal asymmetry and can cause an assortment of breathing problems up to and including sleep apnea. The problem can also affect nasal resonance (hyponasality), which can distort speech. I found it a little odd that a number of early stories found humor in Niese’s “nose job.” When you look at some older pictures of Niese, his nose deviated severely to his right. Functional rhinoplasty is actually a vital procedure for those who suffer from obstructed and malaligned nasal passages.

The surgery likely addressed some lingering asymmetry that was obstructing his airway. I’d learned about this stuff during a graduate practicum at the University of Minnesota’s Craniofacial Clinic (one of the top institutions of it’s kind in the nation). I knew that if the breathing was repaired it could potentially make a big difference in his O2 intake as an athlete, not to mention the far more significant effects of improved sleep (if apnea was an issue). Sure enough he had the best season of his career, going 13-9 with a 3.40 ERA. Jonathon was on the move again, defying expectations, ascending.

Jonathon pitched a hell of a gutsy game the other night. With brutal near blizzard conditions at game time the Mets came out and pounded Vance Worley with 5 quick runs in the first. Worley’s command was off, his pitches all appeared to be some version of a straight fastball, he had nothing. The Minnesota weather was brutal, I couldn’t imagine trying to grip a baseball in this stuff when you could barely feel your hands.

I had my fingers crossed when Niese came out and sure enough he ran into some trouble with a walk and a hit. Niese appeared to be having trouble locating his signature cutter. Buck went out and chatted with him and Niese seemed to settle down after that, sans the cutter. He relied mostly on his fastball and change with a few breaking balls thrown in for good measure. In the end, Niese gutted out 5 innings for the win with 4 earned runs, 4 walks and a strikeout, which, under the circumstances was nothing short of amazing. This quiet kid from Lima, Ohio is something else I thought. Pitching like a true ace, Jon Niese has become resilient, able to do what he has to to win even when his stuff isn’t there and the conditions are stacked against him.

On Saturday, the morning after Niese’s start, as the groundskeepers were doing their thing and hosing down the infield, Niese was the first guy out of the Met clubhouse doing laps. He was working on that conditioning that had made all the difference for him in 2012.

This kid has gone from the ninth pick of the 7th round of the draft, from his average days in the minors, from an uninspiring start to his major league career, to what he is now, which is one of the best starters in the league with a true knee-buckling curveball that has to be one of the toughest breaking pitches in the game.

I wouldn’t put anything past this guy. Like Jonathan Seagull, he is on a stratospheric trajectory. There’s no ceiling in sight for Mr. Niese, and I don’t think he’s set any limitations on where he may end up, so I certainly won’t.

Early afternoon at Target Field.

Jon Niese taking an early jog around the the park.

Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson watching batting practice at Target Field.

Marlon Byrd is waiting for his turn to take some hacks.

None of the players goof off whenever Jay Horwitz is close by.

Justin Turner says, “Hey you’re Metsmerized… I know you guys!”

Sandy glares right at me and says, ”There’s those crazy guys from MMO again.”

Here is a video I shot from Terry’s presser and a clubhouse interview with John Buck.

More to come later, guys….

I was on the phone with Joe D. as I was driving to the park and he asks me if I think they’ll get the game in? I look out my window, light snow showers, “I think so,” I tell him. “Just some light snow at the moment.”

I hadn’t been off the phone for more than 30 seconds when the snow got harder, then it started doing something that I think they call sleet, then more snow and some frozen ice pellet things, then even harder snow and it began to look like maybe there wouldn’t be a game.

Fortunately the snow tapered off just enough as game time approached and the temperature dipped to 34 degrees. It was the coldest game time start since the opening of Target Field.

Now even though 34 degrees is downright balmy when you consider what the past couple of months have been like out here — it gets so bad you have to be careful not to keep your eyelids closed for too long because they can freeze together – it’s not exactly baseball weather. You wouldn’t want your eyelids to freeze together while you’re trying to track down a fly ball… you could run into a wall, or Lucas Duda.

It was a strange night. The Mets came out swinging the big boy bats and pummeled their old National League adversary Vance Worley with a 5 run first that had to feel like a cold slap in the face when the wind chill is 12 degrees. Worley left with his ERA having snowballed to 10.5.

Command appeared to be an issue for both pitchers and they struggled to grip the ball. Worley left pitch after pitch over the plate while Niese uncharacteristically walked several batters in the first few innings. Neise and Buck smartly decided to give up on his cutter after the first inning as Niese was unable to get a feel for it.

“We went to more the 4 seam, changeup and curveball,” Said Buck. “Canned the cutter because it was backing up, it was hard for him to control, obviously we all know it’s his bread and butter, so those runs we got up front definitely helped us be more aggressive, pounding the strike zone, make them hit their way back in the ballgame. We knew were were going to give up a couple of hits, it’s kind of what the game called for, with the conditions.”

The Mets tacked on another 5 spot in the second with Buck hitting a bomb 386 feet over the left field wall with the bases loaded. Worley didn’t get an out in the second.

Murphy had 4 hits with 4 RBI and 3 runs scored. David Wright had 3 hits with 4 RBI and 2 runs, Valdespin had 2 hits with an rbi and 3 runs, Buck had a run a homer and 4 rbi. All in all the Mets left the Twins out in the permafrost this nigh with Terry Collins smartly plugging Aaron Laffey in for 9th inning duty to save his bullpen. The bullpen, incidentally was outstanding as Atchison, Burk, and Laffey contributed 4.0 innings of shutout ball.

Game time: 3 hours 24 minutes
WP Niese
LP Worley

Thoughts from Joe D.

Despite the most deplorable playing conditions one could ever imagine for a baseball game, the Mets braved the snow and freezing temperatures to defeat the Minnesota Twins 16-5 tonight at Target Field.

Leadoff hitter Jordany Valdespin got on base three times and ignited three big rallies for the Amazins as the team exploded for ten runs in the first two innings and knocked out Twins starter Vance Worley faster than you could say Winter Wonderland. By the way, I thought it was a nice tough when Andy Williams started blaring over the PA system singing his Holiday Classic, “It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year” as the Mets baserunners kept crossing home plate.

The Mets torched Twins pitching all night long and racked up 15 hits as they put their two game losing streak in Philadelphia in their rearview mirrors.

Catcher John Buck continues his torrid home run streak and tonight walloped a grand slam in the second inning that iced the game for the Mets. It was his  fourth home run in four games, and sixth this season to lead the league.

David Wright finally broke out of an 0-for-8 slump and racked up three hits falling a home run short of the cycle and driving in and four. But it was second baseman Daniel Murphy who led this hit parade with a 4-for-5 performance including a pair of doubles and he now has 12 RBI for the season, second only to Buck who leads the NL with 19 ribbies.

Jonathon Niese started and didn’t bring his A game, but still pitched well enough to win. He allowed a season high five runs but picked up the win anyway. I’m chalking this up to frostbite. Great job by the bullpen as Scott Atchison, Greg Burke and Aaron Laffey combined to toss four scoreless innings. Nice…

Hey the Mets won and improve to 6-4 for the season and Matt Harvey takes the mound today which bodes well for another win.

Lets Go Mets…

The Starting Pitching

Two words: Matt Harvey. Harvey has been stellar … actually more than stellar, he has been intergalactic. What has impressed me about Harvey is his poise and his fledgling ability to control the came by sheer force of will. No one wants to face Harvey right now, he is overpowering … that’s a scary weapon to have on any team. Need a win? He’s your guy. You can’t put a value metric on that. You aren’t getting swept if Harvey is pitching. If he’s pitching the final game and you’ve won the first two you’re probably looking at a sweep.  Never underestimate the power of a true ace. Matt Harvey really does remind me of Tom Seaver, and there really are some uncanny similarities.

Then there is John Niese, who has been outstanding. I continue to maintain that Niese’s curveball is one of the most underrated pitches in the major leagues. When he’s dropping that thing in for strikes he’s as tough as anyone in baseball. Previous years Niese would unravel after a bloop and a walk. Not so since about half way through 2012, Niese is showing some tenacity under duress, which makes him pretty tough to beat. Right now Harvey and Niese comprise a legitimate one-two punch and there’s a school of thought that subscribes to the belief that two ace level pitchers at the top of a rotation is all you really need to contend. Unfortunately I’m not sure that’s true.

The rotation gets pretty dicey after our top two. Dillon Gee and Jeremy Heffner have been wildly inconsistent with command issues. You get the sense that maybe Gee wasn’t quite ready coming out of spring training, and Heffner just seems to leave too many fat pitches over the middle of the plate. We need Shaun Marcum to hurry up and get better because one more reliable starter and I think the balances are tipped in Mets favor in terms of matching up with other rotations. Lets just say Aaron Laffey seems ill-equipped as his replacement.

The Offense

Two words: Homer happy! The Mets have been hitting home runs like it’s 1998 … Duda hit one the other night at CBP in Philly that I swear was still going up when it hit the upper deck. The man may be lost in the field, but his power is freakish. I feel like he hasn’t even really gotten a hold of one yet, what happens when he does? He could knock a satellite out of orbit, he could hit one to North Korea. How about John Buck? Yeah yeah yeah, I keep hearing how he’s going to come back to earth, whatever. Here’s the thing, with the head start he’s got? Barring injury he’s going to have to come down pretty hard and pretty fast and extremely soon because if he keeps up this rate in another week or so it wont matter, he’ll be able to go back to his lifetime averages and still have the best season of his career (and probably make the all-star game). John Buck is playing with house money at this point.

David Wright I’m not worried about, and Jordany Valdespin needs more playing time. Ike Davis is going to break out sooner or later if he can get his head straightened out. Here’s the thing about Ike. When Ike first came up I was amazed that he was able to make as much contact as he did given his long loopy swing. He was able to because he has great timing, problem is when his timing is off he really struggles, again because of that long loopy swing. The thing that frustrates me about Ike is that he’s playing into the opposition’s prescribed approach. They put the stupid shift on (it’s stupid the shift – no other way to describe it) and they toss him a steady diet of breaking pitches.

Now, correct me, but when Ike came up didn’t he hit to all fields? I remember him talking about how his dad used to make him hit to the opposite field when he was a kid. What happened? I’ll tell you what happened, the stupid shift happened, it got into his head. Ike has fallen into the trap of not adjusting his game to the shift, like it’s taboo or something to change your approach because your approach is what got you to the bigs. Well the problem is, hitting to all fields IS what got Ike to the bigs … since when did he become a strictly pull hitter? I remember Keith Hernandez was incredulous at first that they were even trying the shift on Ike because Ike was always a guy who spread the ball around. Ike needs to get together with Hudgens and practice punching the ball down the third base line, get a few easy doubles, get that average up, get himself going, then he can hit as many homeruns as his heart desires. The rest of the lineup has been playing more or less as expected. We need an outfielder, badly, but in the meantime, Baxter and Valdespin should be splitting lead-off duties.

The Defense

Outside of a few misjudged fly balls by Duda and an inexplicable run of poor play by Tejada I think the defense is actually improved. Murphy has been solid. Ike hasn’t been great at first but I think he’ll settle in. Baxter is a great outfielder and Byrd can hold his own. Center field hasn’t been the disaster we were afraid of, and again, Duda plays the outfield like he’s wearing boots of lead. Wright has been a gold glove third baseman and John Buck has given us a strong veteran presence behind the plate. This team isn’t going to win or lose because of it’s defense, and that is actually a marked improvement.

The Bullpen

Jeckyl and Hyde. The bullpen has had it’s good nights and it’s nightmares. Greg Burke, after one bad outing has been pretty good, that freaky windup of his makes my eyeballs hurt so I can’t imagine it’s easy on hitters. Scott Atchison has been the token “scary old guy” in the pen and he’s been quality through and through, Hawkins has been inconsistent — pretty much the same guy I remember in Minnesota, and Bobby Parnell is throwing a 92 mph change up (need I say more?) I will say more … when he figured out how to dial it back to 91 or 92 to improve his command little did we know he’d still bring the 99 mph heat after he’d get ahead ..  so it amounts to a 92 mph changeup — which is SICK! Anyway, Parnell is fun to watch … and the rest of the bullpen is giving me hope. Josh Edgin has been shaky but reliable and I think he’ll settle in. Overall, with Francisco and Feliciano and Carson and (potentially) Mejia in reserve this bullpen may actually have some depth to bridge the inevitable injuries during the dog days of summer. Fingers crossed on this one.

Overall

I’m hopeful. Right now, as constituted, if they can stay relatively healthy I think this is a .500 team. Maybe a few games better. Things need to break right, the back end of the rotation will need a boost – either by means of Marcum or Wheeler coming to the rescue or Gee and Heffner figuring out their command issues. Ike has to get it going and Wright needs to hit a few out of the park (has he hit any since his injury?). There are concerns, this team’s success is tentative at best. The back end of the rotation let us down in Philly but hopefully Philly won’t always be lucky enough to face Gee and Heffner in the same series in their band box of a home park.

This next series against Minnesota is important. They need to establish resilience, and what better place than a sub freezing tundra on the edge of the great plains against a young and scrappy American League Central team with Ron Gardenhire as their manager. I’ll be there for every game with my lucky hat and my heat-treat pocket warmers.

TARGET FIELD: I think we’re gonna need a bigger shovel.

I want to kick that football, I can see Lucy holding it. She’s promised not to pull it away, I know she’s promised before and still pulled it away, but she seemed really honest this time. I’m Charlie Brown, and I really really want to kick that football. I can visualize it in my mind, the feel of the ball on my toe, watching it glide through the uprights. I know it can happen.

As a Met fan the past few years have ended up with me lying on my rear end and Lucy holding the football while all the other boys and girls laugh at me. Every year I tell myself, no not this time, I won’t fall for it, and every year the lure of the football just sitting there is just too great.

The Mets are coming off two opening series victories against the Padres and the Marlins and a win last night in Philly. I’m thrilled, that football is looking awfully tempting. I may even purchase more than one set of tickets to Citi Field for my trip to NY this summer. Maybe I’ll even buy one of those snazzy new blue jerseys. Is it real? Is Lucy being genuine this time? She sure looks like she is.

The Marlins are a bad team but they’re not as bad as I thought. They are more flawed and young than they are bad. They have lots of talent but it’s a smorgasbord of ill fit and youth, and, well, I guess that does translate to being bad. But this kid Fernandez looks like the real deal, and Ruggiano may be more than a late blooming flash in the pan. Stanton is Stanton. If their high upside starters (currently on the DL) come back and are effective they could be even more annoying than the Marlin announcers.

The Padres on the other hand are not a bad team. They’ve had a rash of injuries and they’re missing their prized catcher (whose name sounds like a monster enemy of the Geats), but they’ll rebound.

The Phillies were supposed to be revitalized. They look old and Halladay does not look like Halladay.

There have been some exhilarating moments so far. The cold night of Harvey’s first start … honestly I haven’t felt that way watching a Met starting pitcher in a very long time. Gooden? Seaver? Harvey was that good. You watch games and you usually feel a sense of apprehension, some tension after a walk and a bloop … things tend to unravel. But there was none of that with Harvey the other night against the Padres, they couldn’t touch him, and the Phillies didn’t do much better. His confidence is palpable, his execution impeccable. Matt Harvey reminds me of Tom Seaver … there I said it.

When I talk to Yankee fans, Harvey is my friend Harvey, the Bensonhurst Bomber, he is even bigger than I am, he terrifies them. He won’t like it when I tell him you said Hiroki Koruda would twist him into a pretzel.

There have been other positive developments. Neise has been ace like, Cowgill has given us shades of Lenny Dykstra, Buck and Byrd have been clutch professionals. Parnell is throwing a 92 mph change-up and Murphy’s bat is on fire. Still I have reservations. Lucy has pulled that damned football away every time. Duda has looked overwhelmed in the field and it’s not just that he’s slow, he misjudges balls and takes poor routs. Maybe he’ll improve, maybe he’ll hit enough so we can trade him. Maybe he can hit a ton so we can tolerate his defense, we’ll know soon enough.

The bullpen has gone all Jeckyl and Hyde on us in the early going. Burke, Rice and Hawkins have been up and down in their first couple of appearances. Maybe we can chalk it up to the jitters, maybe they’ll settle down. Atchison has been a “scary old man” as my son described him but he’s performed as promised. That crazy sliderish breaking ball that Burke throws on the outside corner against righthanders was filthy on Sunday. It sure would be great if we had more than Familia in reserve though, Feliciano, Carson, and Mejia might make for nice additions later in the season if there’s a need. Maybe we can groom one or two more effective relievers in the meantime, maybe the BP will actually hold water this season and maybe that will make all the difference in the world given that our starting pitching has been other-worldly.  Between Duda, Valdespin, and the farm maybe Sandy will even pull the trigger on a trade to shore things up in the event we start to struggle.

Last night’s win in Philly was great but it won’t get any easier with Lee going tonight. This three game set against a reloaded Philly lineup with Subway Sandwhich Howard and Chased Mutley back in the mix is big. We played these guys tough last year, hopefully it will carry over. They don’t scare me like they used to. I like this Met team, there’s a different feel to them, they don’t seem easily intimidated, and they aren’t nearly as “nice” as previous incarnations. John Buck in particular seems to have given this squad something of a backbone behind the plate, my eyebrows elevated noticeably the other evening when Buck had a discussion with Valdespin after Jordanny got caught taking too big a lead off first. He’s no Thole that’s for sure.

I think I’m going to go for it, I’m going to kick that football dammit … here I go …

2005 was a pivotal year because at it’s conclusion the focus of management shifted to obtaining those perceived few pieces that they needed to become a championship team, but the 2005 team was already showing the effects of a broader organizational depth problem. Willie Randolph, then manager, said of that team:

“We’ve matured and grown, and we’ve learned a lot of things about ourselves as a team, and the bottom line is we played hard all year. We didn’t stop playing, and that’s something I’m most proud of. When you have young players who are some of the core of your team, you can look to the future. When you add some pieces, that can be really special.”

The 2005 Mets were by most accounts contenders and stayed in the thick of the playoff picture until a second half stretch from August  27^th to September 17^th when they lost 16 of 20. In spite of a wealth of talent, the bullpen wore down, lacking the depth to sustain a playoff drive. 2006 saw the addition of Carlos Delgado and Billy Wagner instantly bolstering expectations, but even that team slumped in September, having lost a key bullpen cog to a taxi-cab accident, and then saw both it’s ace and his replacement go down to calf injuries in the run-up to the playoffs. While they were able to steamroll the Dodgers in the opening round, they were beaten in the NLCS by a Cardinal team that came in with a bullpen that hadn’t allowed a run in 13 1/3 post-season innings and which featured a young Adam Wainwright.

The pattern of the late season fade was already in place by 2007 when it became clear that the penny-wise pound-foolish approach to building a contender created a top heavy roster that neglected to address the dearth of quality replacements. To be fair, the 2006 Mets were a different team, a team that was tantalizingly close, so the temptation to focus on select free agent acquisitions rather than fortifying the minor leagues was not without precedent, it is the standard approach when you are on the brink of the post season. What went unnoticed however was that like a great boulder eroding at it’s foundation from the repeated crashing of waves, the  2006 and 2007 Mets were aging and eventually crumbled not just from the weight of their veteran presence, but from the organization’s failure to develop supplemental, even league average replacements, particularly in the bullpen.

As recently as 2012 the Mets were still featuring a version of their late season collapse with their second half record looking about as gruesome as day-old roadkill on a desert highway. Remarkably they were still in the pennant race leading up to the All-Star break, which is half a season of good baseball, so you can’t really argue sample size … no, the Mets in actuality were pretty darned competitive up until that point. The popular perception was that they stopped scoring runs, but initially in July this was not the case at all — it was the pitching that went south with a whopping 5.25 team ERA for the month, and as in every previous collapse, it was the bullpen that shouldered a hefty portion of the blame. The failure to stock and restock an effective bullpen has plagued this organization for almost a decade now.

Fast forward to 2013 with the Mets trouncing the Padres on opening day. The Mets look like the better team, but the 2012 Padres didn’t suffer a second half collapse. Quite the contrary they were 2 wins better on the season and enjoyed something of a second half surge going 42 and 33. Now there are two things that come to mind when you think Padres, their farm system and their bullpen. The Braves? Again, terrific farm, excellent bullpen. Oakland? Tampa Bay? Arizona? Do we see a pattern? Below is a chart detailing bullpen ranking by ERA, Minor League System Rankings, and win totals.

In looking at the above, the positive correlation between bullpen era and minor league system rankings (MLSR) stands out — 6 of the top 11 teams in bullpen ERA also feature minor league systems ranked in the top third. Clearly teams with strong farm systems seem to have a better shot at building strong bullpens. There also appears to be a broader correlation between MLSR and bullpen performance in general. Lower quadrant teams (the Cubs, Rockies and Astros) more or less track a parallel trajectory across bullpen ERA and MLSR (and win totals for that matter).

There are a few exceptions, the Orioles had a relatively depleted farm system yet were able to construct an upper echelon bullpen, while the Cardinals and the Blue Jays, with relatively strong farm systems, featured ineffective relief pitching in 2012. But notably, no team that placed in the top ten for wins appeared in the bottom third for either bullpen ERA or MLSR. The takeaway?  There is indeed a correlation between a good farm system and an effective bullpen, and there is a very strong negative correlation between placing in the bottom third for bullpen ERA or MLSR and a winning record. In simpler terms, if you want to win you need a good bullpen, and if you want a good bullpen you need a good farm.

The positive slope of the spread in the above graph demonstrates the aforementioned correlation between MLSR and Bullpen ERA. The data points are the intersections of bullpen ERA and MLSR for all 30 MLB teams. Of the outliers, Toronto (the lone data point in the bottom left corner) was perhaps the biggest with the second best farm system in baseball for 2012 and one of the worst Bullpen ERA’s. The Mets themselves were an outlier, next to last in bullpen ERA with a farm system ranked 16th … based on the above, the Mets should have had a better bullpen in 2012. Nevertheless it is clear that as your farm system improves, your bullpen’s ERA declines.

If there was one constant in the “collapse” years, it was the propensity to focus on the 25 man roster without making provisions for the naturally occurring attrition that unfolds over a 162 game schedule. Below are three organizational depth charts for the 2013 Mets showing position players, bullpen, and starting rotation. There is some solid infield depth with Justin Turner, Jordany Valdespin, Zach Lutz, and Omar Quintanilla  and passable outfield depth — largely the result of a somewhat successful cattle-call of outfield candidates during spring training. Mike Baxter, Valdespin, Nieuwenhuis,  Den Dekker, and Brown, can certainly step up in a pinch. I particularly like Lutz and Brown who look like they can hold their own with the bat. The bullpen looks improved as well with three home grown relievers (four when Mejia returns) which is an encouraging indicator in light of  the notable correlation above.

Depth on the other hand, for both the Met bullpen the rotation is worrisome. Outside of Carson and a (hopefully) healthy Mejia there isn’t much else in reserve. The Met rotation, already down to four starters with Santana gone and Marcum suffering another setback, is also thin. After Wheeler, the Mets are looking at Laffey, McHugh and Schwinden. Granted, by mid season Wheeler, Harvey, and Niese may be enough to keep the ship afloat, but bullpen depth is another story — one that has historically been far more horrific.

This lack of depth may be the unfortunate artifact of a minor league farm that is not yet up to the task of acting as a true feeder system. The 2013 Mets will need some luck, and a good dose of health. They are better to be sure, they are generally deeper and more balanced than they’ve been in a while, and they are poised to bolster their roster with two prospects that have the look of impact players in D’Arnaud and Wheeler, but the Mets have yet to establish the sort of organizational pitching depth that a top 5 farm system might provide.

It is a tall and expensive order to rebuild a bullpen from free agency alone. Relievers are notoriously fickle and good ones are increasingly more scarce. The bulk of Met pitching talent — the capybara moving through the python — will begin reaching AA Binghampton sometime this season. That perk is at least another year away. The Mets may surprise if things break right, but until the critical mass of pitching talent they’ve been carefully accumulating reaches maturity they will continue to be vulnerable to the second half fade.

*Players in bold are on the 40 man roster.

That the Mets dispatched the Padres on opening day should not be as much a surprise as the manner in which they did it. The Mets reputation as world beaters on opening day goes without mention … it likely has something to do with the presence of some fine pitching throughout Met history and the natural advantage pitching has over hitting early in the season. Yet somehow, yesterday felt different. It reminded me of a passage from the Lord of the Rings.

And in that very moment, away behind in some courtyard of the city, a cock crowed. Shrill and clear he crowed, recking nothing of war nor of wizardry, welcoming only the morning that in the sky far above the shadows of death was coming with the dawn. And as if in answer there came from far away another note. Horns …

For those of you familiar with the trilogy you will recall this was the moment of the tense standoff at the city’s broken gates. It remains for me perhaps the single most inspiring moment in the entire epic (amazingly botched by Peter Jackson), it was the turning point, a breath of morning air so to speak. Watching Collin Cowgill digging for third with his head down yesterday was that for me and I can only hope it is a wake up call to fans who’ve for too long slumbered in the doldrums of chronic despair. The ensuing trot to home without fanfare or antics iced it. This team has a different aura about it — there’s a no nonsense attitude permeating them. Their demeanor resonates with the notion that those who are privileged to walk onto the field need to play the game right or get the hell out of the way, what a concept. It is refreshing to say the least.

Whether it translates into victories is almost beside the point. Fans can forgive an awful lot, but one thing that turns them away in droves is indifference. Too often have Met teams of recent history been plagued by a deference to apathy, too quickly have specters of collapse exhumed an infectious invocation to repeat a pattern of surrender; their default to capitulate. Indeed, pride comes before a fall, and this team hasn’t had anything to be boastful about in quite some time. For those of you wondering why Jordany Valdespin didn’t win a spot on the starting lineup look no further. Jordany will make it to the starting roster, I’m certain of it, but a dose of unassuming modesty will only make him better. There is something to be said for the kind of grinding humility that pushes an individual to scratch and claw regardless of outcome.

There will be days when we don’t score 11 runs, when our pitching falters. There will be injuries and heartbreaking losses, but the Mets need to find ways to rebound that have eluded them in recent years. As Bluto of Animal House famously said, “Over? Did you say over? Nothing is over until we decide it is. Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell, no.” This team needs an “I may go down but I’ll take a few of you with me” attitude to losing. They need to care damn it, they need to care more about winning than just about anything else in their world, and those that don’t reflect that quiet obstinate ferocity need to get out of the way.

Alderson may be criticized for a lot of things, but enabling a foundation of fringe characters like Cowgill and Rice and Byrd (who are literally playing for their baseball lives) while grounding the team with sober veterans like John Buck and Scott Atchison and LaTroy Hawkins, with a cadre of frothing rookies in reserve raring to circumvent any potential collapse, should not be one of them. A lot of things could go wrong, this team could fail in ways we can’t imagine, but right now, I like the make-up of this team, a lot.

The team with the most talent doesn’t always win … it’s the team that plays better that wins.

If the 2013 Mets are to have a snowball’s chance in hell of securing a wild-card … they have to adopt this style of play with every fiber of their being, every single last one of them, every single chance they get.