This is a great contract for both sides. For Andrus, the obvious financial security in a town he’s familiar with and loves was the selling point. For the Rangers, they lock up one of the best young shortstops in the game through his prime years and the contract expires at just the right time. Jon Daniels saw his approval rating take a huge hit this past winter when he not only failed to acquire a big name that could finally put the Rangers over the top, he also allowed the team’s best player, Josh Hamilton, to leave via free agency to a division rival.

Andrus is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. At the plate, he’s improved his on-base percentage, slugging percentage and batting average every year since 2010. He owns a 74% success rate stealing bases, which is passable. The Rangers needed to make this happen to infuse some good will back in the franchise, and with a player of Andrus’s caliber, it was a confluence of positives that made everyone a winner.

Everyone except Andrus’s agent, Scott Boras, that is. Well known for taking his clients into free agency and milking every last cent from the owner’s pockets, Boras lost this battle. “We’re the boss,” Andrus said. “I know everybody thinks that about Scott, but it’s different if you’re the one in that position. He works for us. I know he tries to get the best deal that he can, but it comes down to my choice and what’s better for me and my family.”

From one contract extension to the greater chance of another, Yankees second baseman Robinson Cano fired agent Scott Boras on Tuesday and signed with Roc Nation Sports, which partners with Creative Arts Agency (CAA) Sports. Roc Nation is owned by New York über-celebrity Jay-Z. Yankee fans should be happy to learn that Cano will now be represented by Brodie Van Wagenen, who also represents the likes of Matt Cain and the Ryan’s Braun, Zimmerman and Howard. What do they all have in common? Huge contract extensions before they reached free agency, that’s what. Good news for Yankee fans.

Cano is the best second baseman in baseball and would easily receive offers north $200 million on the free agent market. He may still reach that number, but it’s much more likely now that it’s from the Yankees, and will get done before too long.

The Cano situation is fascinating to me because it makes me wonder if Boras is losing sight of the marketing aspect of the decision. When Derek Jeter retires, Cano would be the man on that team and in this town. As Mets fans know, it’s the Yankees’ town, and they just allow the Mets a little space by the East River near an airport. Boras’s job is to get the best deal possible for his client, and he’s been wildly successful over the years, but the client has to think about more than just the terms of the contract.

I remember when LeBron James was mulling over his free agent decision, and the common thoughts were that if he wanted to be loyal, he’d stay in Cleveland. If he wanted to win, he’d go to Miami, and if he wanted to get rich(er), he’d go to New York. So while Boras needs to find out which team can offer the most dollars, Cano needs to find out which city can offer him the best off-the-field endeavors, and it seems he already knew that it was New York or bust. Boras felt that another team could offer more money, as evidenced by the declined offer the Yankees already made to Cano. While that may be true, Cano feels his overall lifestyle would be suited best by New York, so out goes Boras.

I think it’s no small coincidence that Cano immediately signed with an agency that partners with a New York-based marketing company headed by a business mogul worth half a billion dollars.

On a smaller scale, another Boras client, Carlos Gomez of the Brewers, also reached an agreement on an extension just three weeks ago. After a string of losses like this, Boras must be reeling. Maybe now’s a good time for Sandy Alderson to swoop in and lock up Matt Harvey.

AL West At A Glance

Los Angeles Angels: What’s there to say about the Angels? They have the best lineup in baseball and one of the game’s top pitchers in Jered Weaver. C.J. Wilson is solid, though there are some concerns after that. Joe Blanton, Jason Vargas and Tommy Hanson are all back end starters and there’s a huge bridge between the top two and bottom three. They should score a ton of runs, though. Their bullpen is very deep. They also probably sport the best defense around the diamond, as well. The division is deeper than the AL Central, otherwise I’d peg them as 100-game winners along with the Tigers.

Oakland Athletics: I went back and forth between the Rangers and Athletics for second place and ultimately settled on Oakland because of their loaded pitching staff. Brett Anderson, Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin are as talented a young rotation as there is in baseball. There’s a health issue with Anderson, clearly the team’s ace talent-wise, and rookie Dan Straily will be the fifth starter and all he did was lead all of the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2012, despite only starting 25 games prior to his callup. The A’s scored the second most runs in the league after the All Star Break and Yoenis Cespedes will be better after getting acclimated to the bigs. Josh Reddick emerged, but needs to be more consistent at the plate. First baseman Brandon Moss had a second half to remember, hitting .291/.358/.596 with 21 home runs and 18 doubles in only 296 plate appearances.

Texas Rangers: Jurickson Profar is going to infuse a lot of good karma into the Rangers, and they need it, especially after they lost their last four games of the season (three regular season games and the one-game playoff against Baltimore) and went from winning their division to watching the playoffs on TV. Compounding matters, the team let megastar Josh Hamilton leave via free agency to their bitter rivals in Anaheim and spent free agency locking up a pair of 37-year-olds in Lance Berkman and A.J. Pierzynski. They can’t afford anything less than big years from just about everyone in their lineup. They do have a strong rotation, led by ace Yu Darvish, followed by Matt Harrison, Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando, a 2011 All Star. Colby Lewis should return from surgery in June. Joe Nathan really needs to keep his head on a swivel. The Rangers are shorthanded in the pen, but if Nathan can keep the ninth inning under wraps, he’ll get some much needed help from Joakim Soria and Neftali Feliz, both due back from Tommy John surgery in May and August respectively.

Seattle Mariners: I really like what the Mariners did this offseason. Unlike the Indians who made win-now moves when they are clearly not ready to win now, the Mariners signed older veterans to short term deals and added Michael Morse who’s playing out his final arbitration year and is ready to be locked up. They added Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez as their righty and lefty bats off the bench, both of whom should have significant clubhouse influence, as well. Jesus Montero should be ready to break out and start flashing the potential he showed in the Yankees minor league system, making him one of baseball’s top prospects for several years. Justin Smoak and Dustin Ackley need to join Montero and hold their own coming out party and Franklin Gutierrez needs to stay healthy. And I can’t say enough about Michael Saunders in right field. He showed last season he has “star” written all over him. Oh. They also have Felix Hernandez. Much like the Royals, they are a year or two away, provided they continue to make these savvy acquisitions.

Houston Astros: The Astros are the only reason the Twins aren’t the worst team in the league. Houston lost 213 games the last two seasons in a division in which they played the Pirates and the Cubs 36 times. Now they move to a division with three legitimate playoff caliber teams and the Mariners, a far better team than the Pirates or Cubs. It could get ugly. There are some bright spots on the team. Ace Lucas Harrell is a promising arm, but needs to get the walks down. Second baseman Jose Altuve was an All Star last season but actually deserved it, not because the Astros had to have one by rule. Matt Dominguez at third base is a top prospect, acquired from the Marlins as part their attempt to make fools of baseball fans in Miami. Justin Maxwell has all the tools (and I mean all of them), but he just hasn’t figured out how to use them yet. He’s too old to be a prospect anymore, but he’s young enough to still be able to put it together. If he finally does, he could join Altuve for All Star weekend on his own merit. They do have five players in Baseball America’s Top 100, but only two of them even saw AA action in 2012. On second thought, it will get ugly.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Angels, Athletics, Rangers, Mariners, Astros

Jessep: Angels, Mariners, Athletics, Rangers, Astros

Joe D: Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Athletics, Astros

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Jesus Montero

Jessep: Jason Bay

Joe D: Jarrod Parker

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Jurickson Profar

Jessep: Brandon Maurer

Joe D: Jurickson Profar

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: Jered Weaver

Jessep: Felix Hernandez

Joe D: Felix Hernandez

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Mike Trout

Jessep: Albert Pujols

Joe D: Mike Trout

Up Next: National League West

AL Central At A Glance

Detroit Tigers: The odds on favorite to win the World Series, the Tigers aren’t just a big fish in small pond, they’re like a shark in a puddle. It took them a while in 2012 to remember they’re the Tigers, only overtaking the White Sox in late September and spending 33 days in first place, but one of those was October 4th, and that’s all that counted. Victor Martinez is back to add a “5” to the best 3-4 combination in baseball. Justin Verlander will assuredly finish in the top 3 for the Cy Young. Max Scherzer is established now and Austin Jackson is ready to break out. There’s a little bit of a closer issue, but if the Tigers won with Jose Valverde in 2012, I wouldn’t worry too much.

Chicago White Sox: Chicago is the only team that can offer the Tigers any real competition. They also have a dangerous middle of the order in Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. They have a deep bullpen. They have a young ace in Chris Sale and dependable starters behind him in Gavin Floyd and the durable Jake Peavy, who came back from a career-threatening injury to log more IP and three fewer starts in 2012 than he did in 2010 and 2011 combined. He also had his best ERA since 2008 and the best WHIP since 2007. If John Danks can get healthy in his return from surgery, they have a very solid rotation. The acquisition of Jeff Keppinger gives them a capable top-of-the-order bat. They will compete for a Wild Card till the end, but not have quite enough to get them there.

Kansas City Royals: There’s a lot to like about the Royals’ young offense. Billy Butler is a legitimate star. Salvador Perez is ready to break out in a big way and become one of the league’s top catchers. Did you know that the only three catchers with a higher OPS than Perez in as many plate appearances by age 22 (his 2012 age) was Brian McCann, Joe Mauer and Johnny Bench? That’s it. Salvador Perez is fourth on that list. Also on an impressive list is Alex Gordon. He’s fifth behind Robinson Cano, Cabrera, Ryan Braun and Albert Pujols for extra-base hits since the start of the 2011 season. Lorenzo Cain is very highly touted, and Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, though disappointing last season, still have All Star potential. The Royals have a solid bullpen and added Wade Davis and James Shields to their rotation. I wasn’t a fan of the trade, as James Shields has an unimpressive 4.67 career ERA pitching in open-air stadiums. But if I knew that, I’m sure Dayton Moore did, and he still pulled the trigger, so it would seem it doesn’t concern them. The Royals aren’t ready to really compete, but a couple of steps forward for their young players and another piece or two and this could be a different article in 2014.

Cleveland Indians: Lucky for them the Twins are miserable. The Indians made a splash in the offseason, adding Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn, both on the wrong side of 30, to a 94-loss team with a terrible farm system and no help on the way. I guess you can sum up the rotation with two facts: their Opening Day starter is Justin Masterson and their fifth starter could very well be Scott Kazmir. Trevor Bauer will see big things, but not immediately. Ubaldo Jimenez, he of the 5.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 2012, round out the rotation. They also acquired Mark Reynolds and Drew Stubbs to go along with Swisher and Bourn, so those four guys will hit .235 and strike out 700 times. Awesome. On the flip side, Carlos Santana is close to being a star and this should be the year Lonnie Chisenhall gets some recognition. The brightest aspect of the 2013 Indians besides Bauer should be Jason Kipnis approaching Dustin Pedroia-type status at second base. He’s a real player. I don’t think the Indians will “Marlins” themselves and turn everyone over in year one, but I certainly expect a much different lineup on Opening Day 2015.

Minnesota Twins: There was a lot of turnover in the rotation for the Twins, but nothing you’d really want to hang your hat on. Scott Diamond and Liam Hendricks (career 5.71 ERA in 20 starts) are the only pitchers to have made semi-regular starts for the 2012 Twins that figure to do the same for the 2013 version. Added to the fray are Vance Worley, Mike Pelfrey, Rich Harden and Kevin Correia. There are holes in the middle infield. The positives aren’t much, but they’re there. Joe Mauer is still an elite hitter and Justin Morneau finally seems full healthy from a series of concussion-related DL stints, however, he’s in the last year of a hefty contract and is prime trade bait. Trevor Plouffe is emerging at third base and Aaron Hicks tore up the Grapefruit League and will likely force himself into the starting lineup. Hopefully Hicks can maintain a level of interest from the fan base, otherwise Oswaldo Arcia, who just made the High-A to AA jump in 2012 might be forced into the major league outfield a little prematurely.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Indians, Twins

Jessep: Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Royals, Twins

Joe D: Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Twins, Indians

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Salvador Perez, Kansas City

Jessep: Dayan Viciedo, Chicago

Joe D: Mike Moustakas, Kansas City

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Trevor Bauer, Cleveland

Jessep: Trevor Bauer, Cleveland

Joe D: Bruce Rondon, Detroit

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: Justin Verlander, Detroit

Jessep: Justin Verlander, Detroit

Joe D: Justin Verlander, Detroit

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit

Jessep: Prince Fielder, Detroit

Joe D: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit

Up Next: American League West

AL East At A Glance

New York Yankees: A lot of writers and analysts are picking the Yankees to finish third, and in the most wide open division in baseball, it’s certainly a possibility. The injury to Curtis Granderson will keep him out till May, Mark Teixeira’s injury could possibly require season-ending surgery, and Alex Rodriguez will be out till the All Star break at best. However, the Yankee won 95 games in 2012 without Mariano Rivera, Brett Gardner and a plethora of DL stints for normally dependable starters, including C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte. With Kevin Youkilis an upgrade over A-Rod, the steep decline of Mark Teixeira in recent seasons and Granderson’s comparatively short absence, I don’t see the Yankees as short-handed entering 2013 as they were in 2012. The only apparent downgrade was at the catcher spot, and if Ichiro can come close to replicating his 2012 Yankee numbers over an entire season, they won’t miss Nick Swisher too much. A lot of ifs, but who can in good conscience can count the Yankees out?

Tampa Bay Rays: Admittedly an optimistic prediction, the fate of the 2013 season rests on the shoulders of super prospect Wil Myers. Replacing BJ Upton won’t be easy because of the multi-faceted game he brought to the table, and we can put the speed question to bed right away. But Myers has shown some pop, and could fill out to be an eventual 25-home run candidate, and he’s probably already a more disciplined hitter than Upton is and will definitely hit for a higher average immediately. Additionally, scouts think very highly of his defense. He may not replace Upton right away, but he’ll come close and could enjoy a big second half after his first taste of the majors. When you add in a healthy Evan Longoria, a more mature Desmond Jennings, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb and Matt Moore, with Chris Archer knocking on the door and one of 2012’s top bullpens, the Rays are going places.

Toronto Blue Jays: The Jays are probably the consensus pick in this division, and it certainly wouldn’t shock me if they won 95 games, but we’ve seen this movie a million times before. The Jays won the 2012 offseason after raiding the Miami Marlins and acquiring the NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, but those same Marlins who tore down their team won the 2011 offseason. The Angels made a huge splash for 2012 and missed the playoffs also. The Jays also added Melky Cabrera who was in the midst of a career year until he was busted for PEDs. Just two clean years prior, he was statistically one of the worst hitters in baseball. If Dickey can successfully move to a notorious hitter’s park and a tougher offensive division, if the turf in the Rogers Centre doesn’t wreak havoc on Jose Reyes’s already-fragile hamstrings, if Cabrera doesn’t revert back to his pre-PED days, if Josh Johnson can finally stay healthy, if Edwin Encarnacion can come close to replicating his out-of-nowhere MVP-caliber 2012 and if Jose Bautista can avoid an extended DL stint, then the sky’s the limit for the 2013 Blue Jays. Like the Yankees, there are more if’s than you should be comfortable with, but unlike the Yankees, there’s not a lot of proven track record.

Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox had a roller coaster offseason, inking one of the worst deals of the winter when they signed Shane Victorino to a three year, $39 million contract. They attempted to compound that by offering an identical contract to platoon DH Mike Napoli, but a physical issue halted the deal and it was renegotiated to a far more comfortable $5 million base salary. Ryan Dempster will likely also flop. However, they did add underrated catcher David Ross and overhauled their bullpen. Jacoby Ellsbury has MVP potential if he’s healthy, and at the moment he is. Clay Buchholz returned from injury rusty at the beginning of 2012, but shook it off in the second half and had a very promising series of starts to close the season. Jon Lester is too good to repeat his 2012 faux pas. The Red Sox will win around 85 games and that’s not going to be enough this season.

Baltimore Orioles: Their mirage season in 2012 will fade and reality will set in for the 2013 Orioles. They are an improved team than the group who hadn’t won more than 70 games since 2005 prior to last season, but their unsustainable record in one-run and extra-inning games could conceivably shave ten wins off their total alone. Add how notoriously fickle a bullpen can be, and the league-leading group from 2012 could come back to earth. However, Dylan Bundy is the game’s best pitching prospect and already had a small taste of the majors. Manny Machado is no longer a prospect, but one of the game’s top young players. Nick Markaikis should be healthy in 2013 and it could finally be Brian Matusz’s time. The Orioles won’t win 85 games this year, but they certainly won’t be pushovers.

Projected Standings

XtreemIcon: Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles

Jessep: Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, Yankees, Red Sox

Joe D: Blue Jays, Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox

Top Sleeper

XtreemIcon: Colby Rasmus, Toronto

Jessep: Chris Davis, Baltimore

Joe D: Will Middlebrooks, Boston

Top Rookie

XtreemIcon: Wil Myers, Tampa Bay

Jessep: Wil Myers, Tampa Bay

Joe D: Dylan Bundy, Baltimore

Top Pitcher

XtreemIcon: David Price, Tampa Bay

Jessep: Brandon Morrow, Toronto

Top Hitter

XtreemIcon: Robinson Cano, New York

Jessep: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay

Joe D: Robinson Cano, New York

Up Next: American League Central

Sure, I’ve seen it before. Most of us probably have. If not at a Yankee game than maybe as Mets fans during a Subway Series game. Yes, I go to Yankees games. I have friends that are Yankees fans and I love hanging out and watching baseball. It’s only fair, since some of them have been to Shea or Citi with me. But when I’ve seen Rivera saves in the past, I regarded it as a common happenstance. The Yankees win, Rivera gets the save. What else is new?

But this time, I’ll pay a little more attention. I’ll save my ticket stub. I might even purchase a program and keep score in that, instead of printing off a bootleg scorecard I created in MS Word that I take to all the games I attend. Because this time, it will be the last time I’ll ever see it.

Saturday morning, Rivera announced his retirement subsequent to the 2013 season. It wasn’t a surprise to anyone, but I guess it was required to make it official. And therefore, I feel I owe it to myself to witness the scene one last time: the clean guitar intro, the E minor-based riff and the jog in from the pen holding his glove in his right hand.

See, the beauty of baseball is that there are no right or wrong answers to any of the subjective questions. Was Willie or Mickey the best position player of all time? How would Babe Ruth have fared in this era? Did Barry Bonds have enough talent to be the best without “help”? Where would a healthy Ken Griffey, Jr. rank? Where does Tom Seaver rank in the pantheon of pitchers? But Rivera ruins the curve. There is a certain right and wrong answer to the question of who the best relief pitcher of all time is. Rivera is the right answer and anyone else is the wrong one.

Besides having the most regular season saves of all time and the plethora of postseason records – of which I won’t waste your time and mine listing – there are two factoids about Rivera that astound me. The first is his career WHIP. Get this: there are three men in the history of major league baseball with a minimum of 1,000 innings pitched to compile a career WHIP under 1.00! Mariano Rivera is second behind Addie Joss of the Cleveland Bronchos/Naps and ahead of Big Ed Walsh of the White Sox. For historical perspective, Addie Joss died in 1911 and Big Ed retired after the 1917 season. Neither of them pitched in the live ball era, let alone the steroid era.

As magnificent as the WHIP is, this next one is truly astounding. There have been more men to walk on the moon (12) then there have been men to score an earned run off Rivera in the postseason (11).

Let that simmer.

And it’s not as if Rivera has only had a handful of opportunities. He leads the universe in playoff appearances and innings pitched for a relief pitcher. His ERA is 0.70 in the postseason.

It’s because of all that I owe it to myself to revel in Rivera’s ubiquitous dominance one last time, and to savor and remember it this time. It’s because I can watch Rivera warm up to Metallica, saw bats in half and cut-fastball his way to baseball royalty. And unlike those who had witnessed Willie and Mickey in their prime, I can say without even a shadow of doubt, I witnessed the best ever.

Welcome to the first installment of a yet to be determined number of installments Satish and I will be putting together on fantasy rankings for the upcoming season. This piece, about the top ten third basemen, will be followed by Satish’s rankings of outfielders and starting pitching, while I will subsequently add relief pitchers, as well.

Since most fantasy leagues use the standard fantasy categories of runs scored, home runs, RBI, stolen bases and batting average, I went with those categories in my rankings, as well. True, fantasy leagues can be set up to include any number of offensive categories, but the vast majority of leagues just stick with standard scoring, so I will as well. Two items to keep in mind: fantasy is offense only, so defense isn’t factored in the rankings, and because we’re using the standard fantasy categories, these rankings won’t represent the players’ real offensive value.

To begin, I wanted to see how Yahoo and ESPN ranked third basemen. Take a look. The numbers in parenthesis read as follows: RS/HR/RBI/SB/AVG.

The first thing that caught my attention was how optimistic ESPN is about the performances at the top of the list. That chasm-sized difference was a little surprising. The systems project entirely different seasons for both David Wright and Hanley Ramirez. What was not surprising is that both systems had the same ten players, even though there a general difference of opinion of placement.

My projections tend to fall somewhere in the middle, though I probably lean towards the optimistic side. My projections start with how the players have been trending the past few seasons and then are mixed with various ancillary factors pertaining to the individual player.

Here goes.

1. Miguel Cabrera (105/34/129/3/.322) – Cabrera should be the consensus first third basemen drafted, and in most leagues he’s the #1 overall pick. The return of Victor Martinez certainly lengthens the lineup behind Cabrera (who I assume will bat third in 2013), so that could mean an increase in runs scored. However, even for a hitter of Cabrera’s stature, his 2012 season was a peak and he’ll likely regress some. He out-homered his previous career high by six and surpassed his previous RBI high by twelve. What I see benefitting Cabrera in that regard is Austin Jackson finally being a mature enough hitter to put together a consistent season. Jackson had a tremendous first half of 2012, but fell off mightily in the second half and Cabrera’s RBI total suffered as a result, despite hitting eight more home runs in the second half. Something else to consider is that Cabrera was only intentionally walked 17 times in 2012. True, an equally fearsome hitter was on deck, but Cabrera was so punishing offensively, I think there will be a handful of instances where the opposing manager would rather just give Cabrera one base instead of risking extra bases, thus lowering his RBI total and his run scored, because he won’t be in scoring position quite as much for the next two hitters. That’s not a significant point to consider, but three or four RBI and runs scored can be a big difference in fantasy baseball.
2. Evan Longoria (98/36/111/4/.291) – My most optimistic projection, I see this year as the year Longoria stays healthy, which is why I see an MVP-type season for the Rays third baseman. I like the addition of Yunel Escobar and James Loney to the lineup, replacing Elliot Johnson and Carlos Peña, respectively. It affords Longoria better pitches to hit and also a better chance of being driven in with both those guys likely hitting behind him. Desmond Jennings should re-emerge after a 2012 sophomore slump and add Kelly Johnson and his .340-.350 OBP and some pop hitting second and Longo will have plenty of RBI opportunities. I really like Longoria as a steal in the late-second round.
3. David Wright (101/26/103/17/.310) – There is two main factors involved in my somewhat optimistic projection for Wright. The obvious one is a healthy Ike Davis hitting behind him. The second is the return of his K% to around 17% in 2012, down from the roughly 22% it was at from 2009-2011. Wright seemed to use the whole field more and stopped trying to pull pitches on the outer half. The result was better contact, a line drive percentage more towards his career average and the best offensive season he had since 2008. I don’t think he’ll quite regain that form, but he’ll continue to build on last year’s success.
4. Ryan Zimmerman (95/27/98/2/.289) – The addition of Denard Span and a full season of a more experienced Bryce Harper will do wonders for Zimmerman’s season. Jayson Werth is healthy now and showed that his patience at the plate that went missing in 2011 had returned after he recovered from a broken wrist towards the end of 2012. So if he’s back on track as a significant middle-of-the-order threat along with Adam LaRoche, that puts Zimmerman right smack in the middle of Span/Harper and LaRoche/Werth. I like that for fantasy owners.
5. Adrian Beltre (85/27/91/2/.289) – My advice to fantasy players is to stay away from Beltre this season. I think he’ll have a nice season, but he’s probably a mid-second round pick based on recent history and I feel his production is a wasted pick in that spot. I don’t think it can be overstated what the loss of Josh Hamilton and Michael Young in that lineup will do to Beltre’s numbers. Besides fewer RBI chances and fewer boppers behind him to drive him in, he won’t see as many fastballs and will be pitched around far more often than he was. He’s still a real good hitter and still plays in a bandbox and will therefore be productive, but I’m certain come October, there will be a significant difference between what his average draft position (ADP) says his numbers should have been and what his numbers actually were.
6. Hanley Ramirez (90/26/71/29/.270) – The fact is, there were only ten 20-20 guys in baseball in 2012 and he was the only third baseman. There’s intrinsic value in being comparable to your peers in most categories, but able to compete in a category none of your other peers can at the same time, and no other third baseman will steal even 20 bases this season. Ramirez will finish with a pedestrian batting average, modest runs scored and RBI totals, a competitive home run total, but stolen bases is where his value lies. My projection is based on Ramirez leading off. Until Carl Crawford is actually playing, I don’t factor him in the lineup. Something to keep in mind is that if and when Crawford does return and the surgically repaired elbow zaps him of the modest pop he used to have, Crawford could move into the leadoff role and move Ramirez down in the order to a place he’d see more RBI chances. That could also come at the expense of his runs scored total, however. It’s something you should keep your eye on.
7. Brett Lawrie (78/18/81/20/.277) – This is where it got tough for me. You can probably argue that any of the next four guys could rank anywhere from 7-10. I went with Lawrie based on his youth and his lineup. Lawrie will only get better from this point forward, and he’ll have a ton of RBI opportunities in 2013. He’s got solid pop in a hitter-friendly park. The only thing that’s holding him back is the weak bottom of the order for the Jays. They have one of the best top-fives, but nothing to protect Lawrie when he hits, likely in that 5^th spot. The Catch-22 here is that Lawrie, as of right now, isn’t disciplined or mature enough as a hitter to bat second, which would change his season stats-wise. Lawrie owners should also monitor Melky Cabrera’s season. If the PEDs really did play a big role in his recent production and he returns to the fringe player he once was, Lawrie will likely move to that second spot whether he’s ready or not and that’ll spike his numbers considerably. I don’t expect that to happen right away, so for now, I see a him remaining in that 5th spot, driving in runs, but not scoring a considerable amount.
8. Chase Headley (77/19/82/19/.271) – Headley’s coming out party last season was a huge boon to those who drafted him at an ADP of 224. One of the best bargains all of last season. Unfortunately for Headley owners, the book is out. Headley is still a viable fantasy option, but he’s going to need breakout seasons by both Everth Cabrera and Yonder Alonso, along with 550 healthy plate appearances from Carlos Quentin if he’s going to see any fastballs. The rest of the league knows what he’s capable of. He’s the star and biggest threat in that lineup and teams won’t let him beat them. He, like Beltre, won’t be worth the pick at his ADP (51^st overall).
9. Pablo Sandoval (83/20/82/4/.291) – Panda will be hitting behind Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro, so I don’t love his chances at significant RBIs. While Hunter Pence won’t put up Philadelphia-type numbers in San Francisco, I think this is the year Brandon Belt puts it all together, so that’s a wash as far as his protection in the lineup. I think Panda is a good hitter with good power, but he plays in a pitcher’s park and doesn’t have a great lineup around him, so his numbers will be a little deflated because of those two factors. Third base is pretty deep this year, and I don’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of difference between Panda and his ADP around 76 and, say Mike Moustakas (ADP of 160) in the four counting stats, but Pablo gets his kudos for his batting average. It wouldn’t surprise me if he hits .300, but I think he’d need a big second half to reach it.
10. Aramis Ramirez (80/23/87/3/.285) – I remember drafting Ramirez in 2002 after his monster year in 2001, only to see him fall off the face of the earth. I stayed away in 2003, only to see him rebound, then move on to Chicago where he became the kind of hitter that would likely be 3^rd or 4^th on this list. My biggest knock on Ramirez is that he’s 34 years old and hasn’t played 150 games since 2006, just missing the mark the last two seasons. The hitters behind him don’t impress me much, although Jonathan Lucroy was on his way to a breakout season before it was derailed by injury in 2012. Much will depend on him because if he poses no threat as Ramirez’s protection, there’s not going to be much setting Ramirez apart from the aforementioned Moustakas. I’ll even go as far as bumping Ramirez off this list in favor of David Freese if you happen to be playing in a keeper league. I can easily see Freese with the same numbers, but he’ll only get better, whereas Ramirez career is in its twilight.

A couple more notes on third basemen this year:

• Long-term for those in keeper leagues, I think Manny Machado has a higher upside than Will Middlebrooks, but I think Middlebrooks has the better 2013 and 2014 seasons. Machado is still so young and it’ll be a couple of years before he begins to really exploit the potential he has.
• A lot of people are disrespecting Kevin Youkilis this season. I think he’s playing for an organization that plays to his strengths and that surrounds him with a very good lineup. His ADP is all the way at 196, but I see his fantasy numbers looking somewhat like 90/22/90/2/.275 if he’s healthy. That hasn’t been the case recently, which I expect is why he’s getting drafted around the 17^th round, but if you’re strong in enough other positions, don’t be afraid to “reach” for Youk in the 13^th or 14^th and nab him as your starter.
• Keeper league folks, pay close attention to Rockies stud Nolan Arenado. He’s tearing it up in spring training and could actually come north with the Rockies and begin immediately. He isn’t even getting drafted in a very large majority of the leagues, and even if he’s rushed, could still produce as well as any backup you could find outside the top 20, and you’d have him as a keeper forever. His potential is widely known and he may be asked to reach it sooner rather than later.

Stay tuned for Satish’s outlook on the top fantasy outfielders for 2013.

According to a report, the Cubs are willing to eat $26 million of the remaining $36 million owed left fielder Alfonso Soriano over the next two seasons, the last of the eight-year, $136 million deal he signed before the 2007 season. The contract includes a full no-trade clause, which Soriano invoked last season when he rejected a trade to the San Francisco Giants, using the negative effect the cold weather would have on his knees. I wasn’t aware the tropic of Chicago was a more appeasing climate. Be that as it may, the “six or seven teams” for whom Soriano says his agent has informed the Cubs he’d waive the clause are on the east coast or in the center of the country and include the Mets. It also includes the Yankees and Phillies, as well as a quick trip to the South Side. So, I guess it’s only cold in San Francisco. But I digress.

Soriano has been mentioned on several occasions as a possible trade target for the Mets in different capacities. He was a change-of-scenery swap at one point for Jason Bay and a plain old salary dump for Chicago at others. But after an off season in which not one veteran was acquired  for the outfield, one may have fallen into the Mets lap. Soriano is coming off his best season since 2008. He hit .262/.322/.499 with 32 home runs and played the best left field we’ve seen from him in a long time. You do have to wonder which Soriano will show up in 2013 and even 2014, though. The 2012 Soriano, or the 2009-2012 version that hit .248/.305/.463 and averaged 23 home runs in only 134 games per season and played poor defense.

I would contend that the Mets already have a poor defensive left fielder who’s basement is .248/.305/.463 with 23 home runs (provided he plays every day). He’s also nine years younger and isn’t even arbitration eligible for two more seasons.

What makes Soriano attractive is the possibility that he can put up 2012 numbers again, and from the right side to boot. That’s clearly worth two years and $10 million. I would even explore the possibility of paying the Cubs more in cash and less in prospects, but I have a feeling Soriano’s resurgent 2012 is exactly the leverage Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer were looking for and why they chose now to offer to eat a significant portion of the contract.

They are in a rebuilding stage and Soriano’s value is the highest it’s been in three years right now. They’d probably offer to eat all the money if they could get a better prospect(s) out of it. So it looks like $10 million for two years is what it would be. The hitch is that while the Cubs overall farm system isn’t impressive, they are rich in RHP prospects (sound familiar?). And the highest upside lefties the Mets can offer, Jack Leathersich and Juan Urbina, are both very far away and work in relief. The Cubs don’t have anything in the way of catching on the farm, and 2012 draft pick Kevin Pawlecki has since been rendered somewhat obsolete, but again, he can’t offer immediate impact.

This is all supposition because we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Before it’s decided who the Mets should ship off for Soriano, it should be decided if he can produce more than Lucas Duda. Despite a very appealing 2012 season, and a bargain if it would only cost $5 million a year, my gut says no. Too much recent history tells the opposite story. Stick with the Dude.

UPDATE 2/20/13 – Still adding to the list. Everyone who signs up can play. Keep the e-mails coming.

UPDATE 2/9/13 – Great turnout so far. We’re almost at enough people to warrant three leagues. No one will be turned away this year because we will form as many leagues as is needed determined by how many people sign up.

I want to add some more information a conscientious player noticed I hadn’t added below. We will be playing through Yahoo. It will be a snake draft, and the rosters will consist of 25 players and will be as follows: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, OF, IF, UTIL, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P and five bench spots. This can be tweaked if league size dictates (maybe add another UTIL for a ten-team league).

We will take signups through the end of the month and sort out the individual leagues over the next couple of days. By the end of the first week of March, you will receive an e-mail with the league info or a direct invite from your commish. The draft time will be drilled down by your commish and will take place sometime during the last week of March. Good luck!

Original Post 2/2/13

Spring Training is almost upon us, and it’s time to start preparing for this year’s MMO Fantasy Baseball Season. I wanted to get an early start because there will be some subtle changes this season. After a 2011 season in which overwhelming support and turnout for the league left me turning a lot of people away, I expanded the league in 2012 to the maximum allowable 20 teams and still had to turn people away. This, coupled with the fact that a 20-team league turned out to be one of the worst good ideas I ever had, brought upon some modifications to this season’s league.

Consider this the first notice. What we at MMO Fantasy Baseball will do this year is accept signups via e-mail. After four or five weeks of gathering as many names as would like to play, we’ll make as many leagues as we can comprising a more normal number of players. We will not form a league with fewer than ten participants or more than fourteen. If 30 people sign up, we’ll play three ten-player leagues. If we get 48 people, we’ll use four twelve-player leagues.

Joe D., who should be regarded and thanked at every opportunity, has continued to support this endeavor by offering a prize to the champion from his own stash of giveaways for the site. He has generously agreed to put up as many prizes as we have leagues, so everyone has something other than pride to play for. This year, we not only have his support, but also his participation. He’s already thrown his name in the hat to play.

This year, we will be offering the following prize:

The Amazins: Celebrating 50 Years of New York Mets History

To celebrate the 50th anniversary of this beloved franchise, Triumph Books and the New York Post are jointly publishing The Amazins, a history of the Mets that includes all the highlights, the lowlights, the Hall of Famers, the underachievers, the great games and the memorable moments. Virtually everything, in fact, from the rich 50 year history, which makes their fans as passionate about their team as any in baseball.

* * * * * * * *

The rules of the leagues will be uniform (allowing for the subtle differences between head-to-head and roto if we end up of using both formats). Scoring will be based on the standard fantasy 5×5 categories: AVG., HR, RBI, Runs, SB and Wins, ERA, Ks, Saves and WHIP. There will be a maximum limit of seven add/drops per week and no limit or deadline for trades throughout the regular season. After the final game is complete on the last day of the regular season, rosters will lock for the playoffs. You will dance with who brung you. Injury add/drops when rosters are locked will only be offered for those players who hit the DL. E-mail your commish with your replacement, and he or she will make the add/drop for you. Rosters won’t unlock. Final rule: good-natured trash talk is expected.

Please send an e-mail to MMOFantasyBaseball@gmail.com with the subject “MMO Fantasy Baseball” answering the following questions:

• What is your MMO handle (it does not have to be your eventual team name; just need something with which to identify you for the time being)
• Would you prefer to play in a head-to-head league or a roto league? Would you be willing to play in either format, or only your preferred choice?
• Would you prefer to play in a ten-, twelve- or fourteen-player league? Would you be willing to play in any league, or only your preferred choice?
• Would you be willing to be a commissioner for a league? We already have two, so we may only need one or two more. Thanks in advance to those who volunteer, but we may not need you.
• When is your preferred time to draft? Please list all available times. We want as many people as possible to be able to take part in a live draft and will likely group leagues based first on draft availability. Your commish will drill down a specific time with the league.

We’re hoping for an even better turnout than last year. Consider the 2013 fantasy baseball season open for business!

This guy definitely prefers the under.

As Spring Training gets under way, a few staff writers got together and weighed in on various team and individual achievements.

Here’s MMO’s official Over/Under for the 2013 Mets season:

We’d love to have you give us your own takes so we could have something to compare to.

So what do you think? When will we see Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud? How many starters will pitch 200 or more innings this season? Which Mets do you expect to see in the All Star Game? Will David Wright hot more than 25 home runs?

We demand to know, damn it! What’s it gonna be, Over or Under?

I hadn’t given it much thought until it became clear that the interest in free agent center fielder Michael Bourn was more than just passing. I don’t really think that Bourn’s price will drop into a range the Mets are comfortable with, and if it does, that would probably invite more teams to take a shot at him. There’s also the little matter of the draft pick. I’m torn between whether I think the league would cave or not. Normally I’d say no chance, but Uncle Bud has given the Mets more than plenty special dispensations in recent history. Maybe they would allow the Mets to keep their pick. I say it’s moot, however, because again, I don’t think the Mets have a legitimate shot at acquiring Bourn.

And that means they keep their pick. I’ve been adamant that the pick shouldn’t be what holds the Mets up in their pursuit of Bourn (the terms of the contract should be the only thing), and I’m on record here at MetsMerized saying that Bourn will be better for the Mets than whomever the Mets might draft. On the right deal, I stand by that. But the sentiment inspired me to look around the draft blogs to see who the mocks had the Mets drafting.

There are a lot of mocks.

I ignored any on Bleacher Report, any from team fan sites and any from websites I’ve never heard of. Selective as it may be, if I’ve never heard of them, I can’t vouch for them and wouldn’t feel comfortable taking their word.  That left me with the mocks from www.minorleagueball.com and www.mymlbdraft.com. And as luck would have it, both drafts have the Mets taking Florida Gator Jonathan Crawford at #11.

You may remember seeing Crawford’s name after he tossed the seventh no-hitter in the history of the NCAA tournament this past June. He is a 21-year-old sophomore listed at 6’-1” and 205 pounds. I came across the scouting report on Crawford from ProScouting to see what they have to say about Crawford and liked what I saw.

Proscouring.com uses the 20-80 scale when evaluating talent and offers a number for both their current level and where the scouts envision them to peak as a major leaguer. These numbers are categorized as “current” and “OFP” (overall future performance/potential). The scale is defined as:

70+: MVP, Perennial All-Star – Frontline ace pitcher; superstar position player

60-69: Above average, All-Star caliber – #1 or #2 pitcher; position player among the best

55-59: Solid MLB player – #3 or #4 pitcher or top middle relief; solid starting position player

50-54: Average MLB player – Back end starter, average relief; position player that could start on most teams.

45-49: Backup – Spot starter, fair relief; utility/bench player

40-44: Fringe player – Up and down, could make the team for lower-tier club

30-39: AA or AAA – Emergency call-up

20-29: Low minors

For pitchers, ProScouting grades the fastball on velocity, movement and command. The offspeed grade combines all the offspeed pitches the pitcher offers. Finally, the peripherals accounts for smarts, control, deception, release point, arm action, physical maturity (is he filled out, or still growing?), injury history and intangibles.

ProScouting likes Crawford and here’s how he rates (Current/OFP) with some paraphrased comments:

Fastball (55/60): Four-seamer is the out pitch, touches 96-98, sits at 94 with plus movement and future command. Power stuff and arm projects well for a closer role if other aspects don’t pan out.

Offspeed (38/53): Hard slider with sharp break. Inconsistent command, but a plus pitch when in the zone. Basic feel for major league change. Good arm speed and deception. Throws for strikes.

Peripherals (45/57): Three potential plus pitches. Close to average control already, especially with fastball. Can be dominant if/when he masters slider and change. Plus deception with easy, clean delivery with plus arm speed. Ball jumps on hitter. Solid mechanics and delivery.

I should add that these mocks are obviously very early, since the 2013 college season hasn’t begun yet. Draft position will depend on this season and could slide in either direction. A great season for Crawford, especially if he shows improvement on his offspeed pitches, could move him up and off the board at #11. A poor season and he could drop.

So keep an eye out for Jonathon Crawford’s 2013 season. If that’s how it all shakes out, given his age and college experience, he could be ready to see major league action around the same time as Noah Syndergaard is expected to, but there’s a million things that can change between now and the draft.

The list of FAs we’ve seen recently has done nothing to excite Mets fans, but someone has just entered the fray that really piques my interest. After a Chris Schwinden-like off season, Russ Canzler has landed with the Yankees, and to make room, the Bombers designated Chris Dickerson for assignment. The former Milwaukee Brewer legend meets the initial criteria as being cheap and could be had on a minor league contract. But he played well for the Yankees in limited duty, and I think he can really offer the Mets something.

Dickerson is most certainly not a game-changer, he does strike out a lot and bats lefty with little power, but that’s the end of his negatives. He’s a career .266/.352/.407 hitter, and despite hitting from the left side, he has no platoon splits, hitting .269/.354/.424 against right-handed pitching and .253/.344/.316 against lefties. He hits almost the same in the first half of the year as he does in the second. And despite playing in three hitter’s parks in his career (Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Yankee Stadium as a lefty), he has no problematic home/road splits, either.

Dickerson plays all three outfield positions, including a very good centerfield. He’s a great base stealer, successful in 27 of 33 career attempts, for an 82% success rate. As a leadoff hitter in his career, he sports a .286/.363/.464 slash line, and the Mets certainly need a leadoff hitter that can steal bases. And even in the smallest of sample sizes, thirteen plate appearances, he’s hit .364/.462/.455 at Citi Field.

To summarize, a good defensive outfielder with the tools to lead off, a previous track record that suggests success in that role, no platoon splits to offset any of his abilities and a possible minor league deal. I’d love to see him in Port St. Lucie and given a shot to win a role on the Mets.

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Some ideas were exchanged about the value of the qualifying offers (and the value of Clerics in a futuristic society…or something) in an e-mail chain and in it, I opined that Nick Swisher took the deal from the 94-loss Cleveland Indians because teams without a protected pick weren’t going to make him an offer for fear of losing that pick. What does that mean for the Mets? Well, if Nick Swisher and Sandy Alderson were on Match.com, they’d be 100% compatible. Swisher is an on-base machine with consistently good power. He plays decent enough defense and supposedly every teammate he’s ever had loves him. His salary of $56 million guaranteed might be a bit much for a 32-year-old, especially since he’ll average $15 million a year from age 33 on, but if Swisher were to be traded, one would assume the Indians would eat some salary, especially since his $14 million vesting option for 2017 is easily very easily attainable. He just needs 550 plate appearances in 2016 and to pass a physical.

If the Mets plan all goes…to…plan (sorry) and the Mets are competitive in 2014, a power-hitting corner outfielder celebrated for his plate discipline could be in the cards, especially one that could come at a reduced rate because of the salary Cleveland eats.

This is speculation at it’s earliest. The only aspect I’m relatively comfortable with is that the Indians are far from winning and paying for Swisher is essentially paying for other team’s prospects, since their 94 losses and farm system ranked near the bottom doesn’t spell “contender.” It was actually a pretty smart move by Cleveland. They knew their first round pick was protected, so they spent some money to acquire someone who can return multiple prospects a year or two down the line when they might hope to be competitive.

Now of course it may not be the Mets. They may not be competitive or their prospects could bust and have no value. It could be another team a piece or two away. Or, and Cleveland is taking this gamble, Swisher could bust and not be desirable to anyone. But I’ll go on record here and predict Swisher will not finish his contract in Cleveland. And the Mets plan (I know how everyone loves that word) is to need a player like Swisher sometime in the near future, but not right now.

I thought I’d check your thoughts on the Mets signing Jose Valverde. I know his performance has declined, but the reward could be great and he could be had at less cost than the other high profile relievers. Speaking of that category, what are the Mets’ thoughts, or yours, on JP Howell? He’s younger and seems to have the qualities that the Mets should invest in. Last, as the available FA outfielders are not too hot, are there cast-offs or AAA guys who are blocked on their current teams that are worth giving a shot? Hairston was basically pulled off the scrap heap and did better than expected, and every year there seems to be a dozen or so guys that “come out of nowhere” and finally breakthrough.

Thanks for the questions, Scott. I’ll answer your question in pieces. As far as Valverde goes, he’s an interesting case because of the chasm-sized difference betwee his 2011 and 2012 seasons. In 2011, he was a perfect 49-for-49 in save opportunities with a 2.24 ERA. But in 2012, he struggled, blowing five saves and seeing his ERA rise about a run and a half. True, Valverde was terrible in non-save situations in 2011 (5.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in roughly a third of his innings pitched, which is no small sample size, so his 2012 didn’t come as a complete shock. He threw merely 3.1 fewer IP in 2012, and surrendered two fewer home runs and seven fewer walks, but seven more hits. His WHIP only rose .06 points in 2012. After studying the numbers, I noticed three very specific and important reasons for his 2012 struggles.

First is the extra-base hits. Valverde allowed ten more XBH in 3.1 fewer IP, including seven more doubles and three more triples, which adds up to 16 more total bases. Second is the decrease in strikeouts. This past year, he struck out 21 fewer hitters, which is very significant in a reliever’s workload. He went from an 8.59 K/9 to a 6.26 K/9. That means that there were 21 more outs in 2012 that could have been “productive,” as far as moving runners up via groundouts or tagging up on fly balls, which is compounded by all the extra base hits he surrendered. In fact, he gave up three more sacrifice flies in 2012 as part of the 13 more runs he surrendered. Third, and more egregious, is Valverde’s timing, so to speak. In 2012, opposing hitters went 4-9 with a walk with the bases loaded, as opposed to going only 1-8 with a walk in the same situations in 2011.

The struggles with the bases loaded are a matter of luck, but the decrease in strikeouts and the increase in extra-base hits could mean an underlying health problem. Valverde’s 34-years-old, so it’s not a stretch to think his age is catching up to him. However, he only lost a half a mile off his fastball from 2011 to 2012 and there was a bigger difference between his heater and splitter, so I’m inclined to think health wasn’t as big of a factor than his bad luck with the bases loaded, though I wouldn’t completely ignore it. I would take a flyer on him in general, but I don’t think he fits well with the Mets and the direction they’re headed. Valverde won’t get more than a two-year deal, and could very well end up with just one guaranteed year plus an option. I would guess Valverde inks a deal very similar to the contract the Mets signed Frank Francisco for. This doesn’t suit the Mets. The Mets should be using 2013 to see what they have in pitchers like Robert Carson, Josh Edgin, Elvin Ramirez and where they fit in a bullpen, along with seeing if Mejia and Familia can stick in a rotation or if they’re even needed in one, provided guys like Hefner, McHugh and Gorski can progress and capably fill out the back of the rotation. Francisco and Parnell are already slated for a bullpen role and Greg Burke will be given a shot.

That brings me to J.P. Howell. Howell’s a different animal, like you mentioned. He is younger and does possess the skills the Mets are looking for. After a failed attempt at starting, the Rays moved Howell to the bullpen in 2008. Over the next two seasons, in 156 IP, Howell pitched to a 2.48 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. After missing all of 2010 due to surgery on his throwing shoulder, he struggled mightily in 2011. But after a full year removed from the procedure, Howell’s 2012 was almost as productive as his pre-surgery performances (3.04 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). Mind you, this was all in the AL East. Howell’s the rare lefty with no significant platoon splits. Better against lefties, but productive against righties for sure. Contract-wise, you can get two or maybe even three years out of him for the same cost of one year of Valverde or Francisco. Because of his age and apparent successful recovery from the surgery, I think he could anchor a bullpen well into the upcoming wave of competitive Mets baseball. I would have no problem giving him a three-year-deal. Using Randy Choate’s recent deal as a barometer (three years, $7.5 million), three years for Howell could run between six and seven million, and I would jump all over that. Good catch on Howell, Scott.

Finally, the outfield. There are still two free agents that interest me. Austin Kearns is a guy who can play a solid right field with good on-base skills. He’s righthanded, but does not struggle against righthanded pitching. He would be a fine platoon partner with Mike Baxter that could even come on a minor league deal. The second interesting free agent, and gets more interesting with each passing day, is Michael Bourn. Initially deemed far too expensive and requiring far too long a deal for the Mets to consider, his stock has seemingly plummeted. There hasn’t been any news on offers to the former Brave, and just last week former GM Jim Bowden tweeted the Mets could be in the running for Bourn, along with Cleveland, Texas, Miami, Philly and Seattle. With the acquisition of Nick Swisher, the Indians are likely out and I just can’t see anyone signing a long-term deal with Miami. That leaves three teams the Mets surely can’t enter a bidding war with, so he remains a longshot. Though it seems has price has fallen to where the Mets at least have shot. I mentioned a couple of week ago that I wouldn’t give Bourn more than 4 years and $52-$56 million, and it seems like most GMs agreed with me.

As far as other team’s castoffs, Arizona comes to mind. Already with an abundance of outfielders, they recently added Cody Ross to the mix. But after winning the division in 2010, they don’t strike me as sellers for the sake of rebuilding. There was a lot of talk over the summer and again at the winter meetings about Justin Upton, but nothing ever materialized. And why not? He’s young, relatively inexpensive and a perennial All Star, if not an MVP contender. The tea leaves are speaking to me and they’re saying that the addition of Ross to their plethora of outfielders means it’s more likely Jason Kubel is the odd man out. Kubel is owed $7.5 million in 2013 and has an option for 2014 at $7.5 million with a $1 million buyout. He has very exagerated home/road splits and doesn’t impress with the glove. The D-Backs couldn’t command a lot for someone with that baggage, unless they eat a significant portion of that contract. That might be the route the D-Backs prefer. They’re not entirely cash-strapped, so they don’t need to dump Kubel’s salary, and they’d much rather add a prospect with upside to hopefully aid their efforts to try and knock off the Giants while they still have the likes of Upton, Parra, Goldschmidt, Eaton, Montero and their sickeningly young and talented rotation.

The Orioles will have to shuffle their bench around, and a lot depends on Brian Roberts. If he’s healthy and Alexi Casilla becomes a utility player, it might allow them to move Nolan Remiold. He has some pop, averaging 24 home runs per 162 games, but is a marginal outfielder. An improvement defensively over Duda (which isn’t exactly impressive), but a downgrade from Kirk and probably on par with Hairston. He’s also a righty with no platoon splits, which does add a little something. He’s young enough to give a shot, however, as opposed to Kearns who is strictly a bench/platoon player. Reimold’s 2013 will be his age 29 season, and he might have something to offer if he’s committed to as an every day outfielder.

Thanks for the e-mail, Scott. The staff at MMO encourages reader participation. Please don’t hesitate to send your questions in.

When Evan Longoria inked his contract extension last week, many thought that the new money of six years and one hundred million dollars set the market for David Wright’s extension. Longoria’s obviously more talented and younger. So based on that, Wright at most should get the same extension, right? Wrong. Longoria set the market for Wright, but not the way you think it did. Free agent contracts (and also extensions that avoids free agency) are not given based on future potential production. I wish they were. We all wish they were. They’re offered more as lifetime achievement awards. Do you think Albert Pujols got his ten-year deal based on what he’ll produce through age 41? No, he got it based on what he did produce through age 31.

For Longoria’s career, he’s put up a .276/.361/.516 slash line against Wright’s .301/.381/.506 line. Advantage Wright. To put it in further perspective, Wright’s one of only five players to maintain a .300/.380/.500 slash line with a minimum of 2,500 plate appearances since his debut in 2004 (Longoria has 2,726 career PAs). The others are Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, and Matt Holiday. Any way you slice it, that is pretty incredible. Manny Ramirez also satisfies the criteria, but he tested positive for PEDs. Twice. Ryan Braun falls just short with a .374 OBP, but his statistics are in question, as well.

Wright also has an element of speed to his game that Longoria does not, which offsets Longoria’s defensive edge. There’s also the playing time factor. Wright’s been a workhorse. With the exception of his broken back in 2011, Wright’s played at least 154 games in all but one season since his first full campaign in 2005. That exception is his 2009 season, in which he played in 144 games after missing time late in the season due to his beaning. Longoria, on the other hand, has missed significant playing time the last two seasons, missing 117 of his team’s games. Durability is a question.

I have no doubt Longoria is a better player than Wright, and I’d be comfortable saying he’ll have the better career from this point forward. But based on the way MLB hands out contracts, Wright deserved more. Longoria’s deal did set the market for Wright, but not the way you think it did.

Life After R.A. Dickey

It’s been reported that there’s a significant number of teams interested in trading for Dickey, and some of those teams have some very interesting pieces that would help the Mets. I’m on record saying that I wouldn’t think twice about offering Dickey a $36 million extension over three years and would even add a fourth option year. The Mets seem to think that they won’t need to offer as much to get a deal done, which would be even better. But we all need to consider the rotation without Dickey if he is indeed traded for catching and outfield help.

About a month ago, I e-mailed some MMO colleagues to gauge their interest in Dan Haren for the Mets as part of a potential Crossfire piece. No one disagreed with me, hence, no article. Haren was, up until last season, one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. From his first full year in 2005 through 2011 he averaged 34 starts and 226 innings, pitching to a 3.49 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and a 4.3 K/BB ratio. He did that splitting time between the American League and a hitter’s haven in Arizona. But in 2012, the last guaranteed year of his contract, lower back issues led to his worst major league season. The Angels tried to trade him to the Cubs, which fell through, and then they declined his $15.5 million option.

Haren’s been on my radar for years. I was very vocal about the Mets trading for him when he ultimately ended up in Anaheim. Despite his injury and down year last season, there’s a lot to like. Firstly, he’s 32, so I can’t believe he’s already washed up. The injury is significant, and I’m not suggesting a long term deal, but his track record is enough for me to believe there are no arm or leg issues that may surprise me. Secondly, the back issue was with him from the beginning of the season, and he pitched through it before finally landing on the DL. Upon his return, he made every scheduled start, and over those 13 starts, he looked like the old Haren. He posted a 3.58 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 4.0 K/BB ratio. His final eight starts of the season looked like a return to the Cy Young contender he’d previously been (2.81 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 41 Ks to only five walks!).

He finished the year on a very encouraging trend and the fact that his option was declined pretty much ensures he’d make no more than $12 million in 2013 and probably slightly less, which is more or less what the Mets would be paying Dickey. If Dickey were to be traded, I’d love to see Haren on a one year deal with an option, which gives the Mets sole discretion on whether he’s part of the team in 2014. If his back proves not to be problematic, his 2014 price could be very appealing on an exercised option. And if he flames out, he’ll put no more strain on the 2014 payroll than a measly $2 million or so buyout. If Haren were agreeable to, say, a two year deal for $20 million, I’d be inclined to guarantee that second year only because of the way he finished 2012, and even add a third year via option.

Scratching the Free Agent Itch

The Mets are in need of some outfield help, and names such as Ryan Ludwick, Cody Ross and Angel Pagan have been bandied about. But I think the most appealing option may not have to travel far to Citi Field. Most recently a Yankee, Ichiro Suzuki provides just about everything the Mets are looking for in one player. A defensive standout in right field, Suzuki would allow Lucas Duda to play left field and give Kirk Nieuwenhuis a break covering center, and would provide a traditional leadoff bat with very good speed and off the charts baseball IQ.

Ichiro comes with the stigma of being a significantly below average hitter overall the last two season, but did show new signs of the life with the Yankees, putting up numbers more in line with his career norms. The change of scenery did him good. Ichiro is old, has lost a step and is not a long term solution, but neither are any of the other outfielders not named Josh Hamilton or Michael Bourn. And none of the other options provide Ichiro’s defense, speed and leadoff capability. Ichiro could be signed on a one year deal for around $7-$8 million. There’s the chance that the Mets might have to up it to $10 million to convince him to sign with a team whose playoff hopes in 2013 ride on too many “ifs,” and that would give me pause, but it’s certainly a situation worth looking into and pursuing.

Hitman asks:

With this hoopla going on right now with David Wright and the contract negotiations (Wright being dissatisfied by the contract offer in length & value), and Giancarlo Stanton being very outspoken against Miami, wouldn’t it be smart to package Wright along with Johan Santana (eat about 60% of his contract), Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, and Rafael Montero in order to land Giancarlo? Strike while the iron is hot, so to speak? Murph can briefly play 3rd until Flores is ready (or go get themselves another short term 3rd baseman like Polanco for one year), followed up by trading for Asdrubal Cabrera from Cleveland, either sliding Tejada to 2nd base or putting Cabrera at 2nd base.

XtreemIcon replies:

Hitman, I’ll give you my short answer, then my long answer. My short answer is that it would be very smart to do this. I’d drive each and every one of them to the airport myself. And carry their luggage. The long answer is that it’s so smart for the Mets that I don’t see the Marlins accepting this deal. The Marlins just dumped about every player on their team making any kind of money, and Wright’s about to get paid. In addition, 40% of Santana’s contract is still around $10 million for 2013 (and the same for 2014 if they exercise the option, though with the Marlins, that doesn’t seem likely).

I can definitely see the Fish unloading Stanton and retooling, and I’m sure they’d have no problem trading him within the division, but that would likely up the cost. Wheeler, Familia and Montero are a good start, but instead of Wright and Santana, it would have to be more minor leaguers making zilch.

The question now is what else the Marlins would want from the Mets. Their mlb.com Prospect Watch lists two of their top three prospects as outfielders with a 2013 ETA (Christian Yelich and Jake Marisnick) and their eighth-best prospect, Marcell Ozuna, is an outfielder with a 2014 ETA. That puts Juan Pierre’s one-year deal in perspective. Therefore, they’d likely not be interested in Matt Den Dekker. Adeiny Hechavarria, acquired from the Blue Jays, will go into Spring Training with the job to lose at shortstop, and with Zack Cox and Matt Dominguez both with 2013 ETAs, they’re set at third base, likely making Wilmer Flores redundant (and Wright, too, for that matter). They also have a second baseman and a first baseman with a 2014 ETA in their top-20. They don’t seem to be in a dire need to add position players close to the bigs. If you were the Marlins, would you trade Stanton for Wheeler, Familia, Montero and some kids only in A-Ball?

A more likely scenario, from the Marlins standpoint, is Wheeler, Familia, Montero, Tapia and Puello for Stanton, a lower-level pitcher and, say, their second base prospect Noah Perio. Here’s Perio’s scouting report from the Prospect Watch:

“A football standout in high school, Perio acquitted himself well in his first full season in 2011. The 2009 draftee showed a good bat from the left side of the plate at Greensboro that season, but his numbers tapered considerably in 2012 at Jupiter. A good athlete, he’s an above-average runner and has spent a good amount of time in the leadoff spot. To stay atop the lineup, he’ll need to improve his plate discipline, but he makes good, consistent contact. He’s still learning how to play second but should be fine there long term and even has the arm to help out at short if needed.”

That doesn’t seem like it’s worth it now from the Mets standpoint. You’re right to assume the Mets would have to overpay for Stanton, Hitman, but the package you suggested wouldn’t appeal to the Marlins based on financials and positional need.

Lisa Pernice asks:

Now that Toronto got Buck, you think that we should try to get either d’Arnaud or Arencibia? If they didn’t have a logjam before, it looks like they have one now. What would the cost be?

Ramon asks:

Now that the Blue Jays acquired John Buck from the Marlins, do you think that the Mets have a good shot at attaining J.P. Arencibia? Though Travis d’Arnaud is a better option, it would be pretty unrealistic to acquire him. Arencibia is not quite as good defensively, but his offense more than makes up for it, plus he adds a right handed hitter to a lefty heavy lineup. He would be cheaper to acquire and even more so now that they’ve attained a couple of major league pitchers. I think someone like Mejia or Valdespin and some other decent pitching or position prospect could get this deal done.

XtreemIcon replies:

Well, Lisa, I’ll answer part of your question with part of Ramon’s. Travis d’Arnaud is pretty unrealistic. I don’t think he’s untouchable, but catching is so thin across baseball, to acquire a catcher of his ability and prospect status would require a significant over-payment on the part of the Mets. D’Arnaud is simply a stud prospect. His full minor league slash line is .286/.343/.474, but more impressively, his high minors (AA and AAA) slash lines are even better. Combining for 37 home runs in only 769 plate appearances, he hit .311/.371/.542 in AA and .333/.380/.595 in AAA. He threw out 28% of potential base stealers in the high minors and has gotten better as he’s moved up. Baseball America ranked him as the #17 prospect in baseball before the 2012 season. John Sickles of www.minorleagueball.com ranked him #26 before the season and #18 in a mid-season revision and the #9 hitting prospect in a preliminary 2013 ranking.  There are myriad scouting reports that praise his defense, his arm and his game-calling ability. He’s as close to a can’t-miss prospect as there can be given how shallow his position is.

Ramon, I think you’re being too kind about Arencibia’s defense. He’s not good at all. In 2011, CBS Sports ranked him as the worst defensive catcher in all of baseball and he hasn’t improved much, if at all. He’s on the wrong end of the passed balls and wild pitches lists, despite only catching 800 innings in 2012, fewer than many other catchers. I also think you’re being too kind about his offense, which is incapable of a defense. I think the offense you think “more than makes up for it” is a quick look at his home run total. For a catcher, it’s not bad, but you have to remember he plays in a middle-of-the-road park for hitters right now. How would his 23 and 18 home run seasons in Rogers Centre translate to an extreme pitcher’s park like Citi Field? No too favorably, and I haven’t even mentioned his career .222 batting average and .275 OBP. Those are pretty good numbers…for a pitcher. Josh Thole had better numbers in his miserable 2012 that’s the cause of this discussion in the first place.

I wouldn’t give up Mejia or Valdespin for Arencibia straight up, let alone adding more pieces. The Mets certainly need to upgrade the catching, but overpaying for d’Arnaud isn’t the answer, and I’d much rather Thole, despite all his struggles, over Arencibia. We’re talking a higher batting average, a higher OBP and better defense from Thole, plus a track record of even better performance than what he showed in 2012. Arencibia’s track record is about what you’re seeing right now.

There’s another element to this, besides the individual talents of the players in question, and, Lisa, it’s that there’s really no catching logjam in Toronto. Jeff Mathis was included in the package that went back to the Marlins in Tuesday’s blockbuster trade, so that leaves only Buck and JP as the probable candidates to go north with the team out of Spring Training. D’Arnaud is still in AAA right now and will likely start the season there. Former Marlin John Buck is only signed through 2013 and is a lame-duck backup to Arencibia right now. When d’Arnaud pressures the Jays into calling him up, it’ll likely be at the expense of Buck via trade, as opposed to Arencibia.

If the Mets have to trade for a catcher, I give the Reds a call and inquire about Devin Mesoraco. He had very solid minor league numbers, but was buried in Cincinnati and put up Arencibia-like numbers in his sporadic playing time.

The difference is that the jury is still out on Mesoraco because of his minor league track record and the fact that he hasn’t played every day in the big leagues. JP has, and maybe he improves slightly over time, but that still doesn’t give you a good catcher. Mesoraco can’t cost much, would definitely be cheaper than Arencibia, and still has a shot to be a solid catcher at only 24-years-old. If Dusty Baker won’t give him the shot, the Mets should. The minimal cost of acquiring him can’t hurt the team if he doesn’t work out.

Thanks for the questions, Lisa and Ramon. If the readers have any questions for the staff at MMO, click here to submit them.

When did the Gold Glove become an offensive award? On Tuesday, MLB announced the 2012 Gold Glove winners. Here are the winners:

There are some obvious choices in there, like Beltre, Buehrle, Molina, Reddick, Heyward, and Cano. Some choices can be argued back and forth, like Teixeira, Gordon, LaRoche and Wieters. Then there are some downright absurd choices. All due to respect to Adam Jones, how does this award not go to Mike Trout? Aside from the fact that Mike Trout is the best center fielder in the universe, Jones wasn’t even that good defensively this season. This is a glaring error, but it’ll all be forgotten when Trout takes home his MVP award.

Ninth-worst in FLD%, third worst in UZR/150, dead last in DRS, first in voter’s hearts.

The other glaring mistake on this list is Carlos Gonzalez. He’s a miserable defensive player. I don’t know how else to put it. He has zero range and an average-at-best throwing arm. Martin Prado should sue for defamation of character for being considered inferior than Carlos Gonzalez. This is clearly a case of offensive numbers winning a Gold Glove Award, and it’s a real shame. How Gonzalez was even a finalist is baffling me.

Both awards for shortstops were given to the wrong players. I’m not as up in arms about the American League, as Hardy is certainly a good defensive player, but Rollins stinks now Brandon Crawford of the Giants and Zack Cozart of the Reds both impressed me far more than Rollins with the glove. In the Junior Circuit, Brendan Ryan was a living, breathing clinic on how to play shortstop. Unfortunately for him, he hit .194/.277/.278, so apparently he’s unable to win a defensive award. Same with Crawford and Cozart. Since Rollins hit 23 home runs and scored over 100 runs, he must be the best defensive shortstop in the league, too, right? It’s just silly. Additionally, Andrew McCutchen MVP-caliber offense clearly won him some points. He’s never been a very good defender. He’s fast, sure, but he just doesn’t make the plays. Watch Michael Bourn play centerfield and you’ll see a chasm-sized difference in the way Bourn uses his speed and the way McCutchen doesn’t use his.

Wright deserved this award more than he deserved the two he actually won!

In an odd case I can’t really blame on the bat, Chase Headley won the award over David Wright. I like Headley a lot and I’ve been a big proponent over his overall solid game. But Wright had a monster defensive year. I’m not much for defensive statistics, but Wright led all NL third basemen in UZR/150 by a significant margin and led in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) by a very wide margin. Despite how unreliable defensive metrics are, when you’re that much better than the next guy in both those categories, there’s something to be said about the defensive season Wright put up. He also tied for the second-fewest errors in the league and was .003 points behind the leader in fielding percentage. He deserved this award more than he deserved the two he actually won!  I’m also certain Aramis Ramirez is a better third baseman than Headley.

Thankfully, the voters got it right with Darwin Barney. They could have easily given it to Brandon Phillips based on reputation, but Barney was stellar this year and deserved it. Oddly enough, Phillips hit better, which bucked the trend.

Here are my picks for the Gold Glove awards:

*Salvador Perez of the Royals is very, very good, but lost significant time due to injury. Watch out for him.

**A good argument can be made for Adrian Gonzalez, but he spent almost a quarter of the season in the NL.

Who are yours?

It’s an exciting time to be a San Francisco Giants fan for sure, but I’m talking about RickeyBobby, the 2012 MMO Fantasy Baseball Champion. In one of the closest and tightest World Series I’ve ever seen, Rckey defeated runner-up and first time fantasy player Urinal Blogs Rule by the score of 5-4-1.The lack of a bullpen was UBR’s downfall, as Rickey squeezed a save each out of Greg Holland, Huston Street and the Mets own Bobby Parnell, while UBR was shutout in that category.

RickeyBobby stunned, finishing the regular season with the fourth seed and got hot at the right time. A first round tie with the fifth seed advanced Rickey due to seeding, and it was no looking back for the first time MMO champion. An upset win that went the proverbial seven games against last year’s champion and this year’s first overall seed catapulted Rickey in to the championship round against UBR, whose path was less strenuous. Two playoff victories with a combined 13-4-3 record looked for all the world that I’d be crowning as champion the manager who had to ask me the rules on how to play before the season began.

Offensive MVP recognition goes to Curtis Granderson, who tied for the most championship-match home runs with four that week and led all players with twelve RBI and eight runs scored. On the pitching side, co-MVPs Jaime Garcia and Miguel Gonzalez led the charge with a combined for four wins, 19 Ks, 1.33 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP.

For his efforts, RickeyBobby will take home Matthew Silverman’s 100 Things Mets Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die. Rickey, look out for my e-mail sent through the league page on how to claim your prize. The book was generously supplied by Joe D., who once again cannot be thanked enough for his generous and unwavering support. I look forward to next season, when I hope to parlay this year’s overwhelming interest into multiple, more competitive leagues.

Till next year…

Case in point is the contract they’ve given to Evan Longoria, perhaps the most talented third baseman in baseball, who seemingly suffers season-altering injuries every year. Days after being called up to the majors in 2008, the Rays inked Longo to a six year, $17.5 million contract with three option years that would keep him Tampa through 2016 and pay him a grand total of $47.5 million, plus incentives, for nine years. That same year, the Rays signed James Shields to a four year, $11.25 million contract with three option years that could being his full deal to $39.25 million over seven years, also with added incentives. After making just one start in the majors in 2011, Matt Moore agreed to a five year, $14 million deal, plus those three options the Rays love that could pay Moore $40 million over eight years, plus the incentives he achieves. The Rays operate a certain way, specifically with pitchers.

He’d look good in blue and orange

But there’s one pitcher they let slip away, one that might turn out to have a better career than all three players above. David Price does not have a long-term deal and is currently on a year-by-year team-controlled/arbitration salary. The Rays did try, signing him to a long-term major league contract in 2007, while he was still in the minors, but left the door open with a clause that stated Price could opt out of the contract and file for arbitration in any year in which he would have been arbitration-eligible. Price took advantage of that clause and opted out after 2011, electing for arbitration over the $1.5 million he would have made under the contract. The Rays and Price avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.35 deal, and now the Rays are in a bind.

Price is a leading contender for the American League Cy Young award. Even without the award, he’d likely earn $8 million in arbitration and the award could hike that up into double figures. With Price’s trade value at the highest it’s ever been, this might be a prime opportunity for the Rays to score a huge return instead of  going year-by-year with Price through his next three arbitration years, potentially paying $35 million for those three years and receiving just draft picks in return. Sure, the Rays could trade him at any time over those three years, but seasons like the one Price just had aren’t easily replicated. The Rays should strike while the iron is hot.

Enter the New York Mets. Before the 2012 season, the Mets and pitcher Jonathon Niese agreed to a Raysian-type deal, guaranteeing Niese five years, and holding two options that could bring the total to a little under $47 million for seven years. Andrew Friedman likely stood and applauded. The solid season Niese had and the potential he showed is very nice, but not worth a potential Cy Young winner on its own. What else do the Mets have? The Mets also have a first baseman that is only entering his first arbitration year and cannot be a free agent for another four years, a very good candidate for a long-term deal that buys out a lot of those years. Eh, that’s better, but why can’t the Rays just re-up Carlos Peña for the umpteenth time and keep their ace? Fine. How about that DH Joel Sherman says the Rays have always liked? Ok, Mets, throw in your top pitching prospect, the Rays will return their top middle infield prospect (because they have two of them in their top-ten, according to Baseball America), a middle reliever, a 72-hour window to sign Price long-term (a la Johan Santana) and we have the principles of a deal.

The Mets get: David Price, Burke Badenhop and Hak-Ju Lee

The Rays get: Jon Niese, Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Zack Wheeler

That’s a doozy. Let that simmer before reacting. Count to twenty and keep in mind that this is the principle of a proposed deal. Cash and/or minor prospects will also change addresses. Let’s look at the Pros and Cons from the Mets perspective.

Lee will likely stick as a long-term middle infield presence.

Pros: They are replacing Jon Niese with David Price and (probably) Manny Acosta with Burke Badenhop. This would be a huge boost to the pitching staff. I can show you stats for days, but it’s not necessary. The Mets would also be using Lucas Duda, who many have grown tired of and given up on, to return such a huge improvement. They would also be receiving a very highly regarded shortstop prospect with great speed, who, in 2012, had a really good stolen base percentage in 2012 (80%), a solid contact bat (.261/.336/.360) and, most importantly, plus defense up the middle. Lee had a full season at AA Montgomery and will be given a long look in Spring Training. He’ll likely begin the season in Durham and his arrival in the bigs projects to be as soon as he proves he can handle AAA and Elliot Johnson can’t handle the majors. With the Mets, he can take it a little more slowly. Daniel Murphy, who would now know his time was almost up, might be motivated to either keep his job, or make himself more attractive to another team, which would also benefit the Mets. Murphy isn’t eligible for free agency till 2016, and the Mets can do with him what they please for three more years. Increasing his trade value is obviously optimal, but worst case, Murphy is demoted to a super-sub, which is likely his best role on the team. There’s another option with Murphy, which I’ll address a little later. In case it’s not clear, I’m talking about moving Ruben Tejada to second base.Cons: I like Niese, but I get replacing him with David Price. But who’s going to play first base? Ike Davis had 32 home runs in a bad year. And Duda could hit 25 or so playing every day. That’s basically all of the Mets’ power, not to mention Davis is a stud defensively. How do you address that? And isn’t the best pitching prospect on the farm a little steep?

Well, you have to give up something to get something. To improve the pitching staff that drastically will cost you, and there’s the rub. The Mets will obviously have to downgrade at first base, but maybe not all that much. With the acquisition of Davis, the Rays will no longer need Peña. He still has power and still managed a better OBP than Davis, and is a better-than-average defender at first base. He earned $7.25 million in 2012, but could see that number fall to as low as $5 million, which is affordable. James Loney, considerably younger than Peña, has been a good hitter with a little pop for most of his career, with the exception of 2012, which is why it’s not likely he’ll be retained by the Red Sox. Loney’s also a plus defender at the position and his 2012 salary of $6.375 million will also likely fall into the $5 million range.

There are internal options, as well. Josh Satin and Zach Lutz could see time as stop-gaps. Wilmer Flores played first base a little in 2012, and that might be the most realistic way to get his bat in the lineup when he’s ready to hit in the majors. But my favorite option would be Daniel Murphy. He played a decent first base when he was plugged in there in the wake of Carlos Delgado’s career-ending injury in 2009. We saw how well he took to second base and how much better he was at the end of the season than he was in the beginning, and second base is a far more difficult position to learn than first base. There’s no reason Murphy can’t become a solid defensive first baseman, and we already know he can hit. As far as replacing Duda, I don’t see where it’ll be that hard. Flores projects to hit better than Duda, whenever he’s promoted to whichever position he’ll play (maybe the outfield if Murphy slides to first). Peña could provide similar offense and Loney could provide a better overall bat, but with a drop in power.

Zack Wheeler, we hardly knew ye.

As far as Wheeler goes, well, that’s just shrapnel. I can’t expect a team to give up a top-ten pitcher in all of baseball, plus a dependable bullpen arm, for Jon Niese, who was maybe a top-20 pitcher in the National League this season moving to the American League.

Something’s gotta give.

Wheeler’s a tough pill to swallow, but that could be offset a little by extra low-level (level, not potential) starters. An A-ball pitcher with promise, maybe. Or maybe enough cash to offset the free agent signing of the replacement first baseman or another outfielder. The smaller details are just minutiae for the GMs to work out.

The locker room incident involving Jordany Valdespin’s t-shirt before Wednesday’s game has broken out and become a “thing.” In what probably doesn’t count as his rookie hazing, Valdepin’s plain white t-shirt he wore to the ballpark before Wednesday’s win in San Francisco was jokingly altered by some veterans to remind Valdespin of the club’s self-imposed dress code of collared shirts.

The sleeves were shredded, and the back sported “El Hombre” and his uniform number 1. ”NY Loves Valdy” graced the front of the shirt. According to reports, ‘Spin was initially angry at the violation, but calmed down about as quickly as he flared up after a private conversation with David Wright about the incident. Valdespin was later seen wearing the shirt out of the clubhouse, laughing and joking with teammates and even posing for pictures in his new duds.

While understanding of the stunt, Valdespin reflected on his options if the situation were reversed. “No, no, no, no. I’d never do that,” he said. “You know why? You’ve got to respect everybody. The example here is this guy, David Wright. He’s the captain of the team and he respects everybody…The respect is very important on this team.”

The rookie atoned for his gaff Thursday, arriving to the ballpark in a pink button-down shirt with white collars and cuffs and floral print on the inside.

Glad to see the situation was diffused and it was a non-issue. Valdespin had been known for exhibiting some immaturity in the minors, but from all accounts, he’s been a perfect citizen on the big club. With Valdespin’s history, this easily could have gone the other way, so props to him for exhibiting some professionalism.

In a shocking development, San Francisco Giants’ Pablo Sandoval has beaten out David Wright to start at third base for the National League at this year’s All-Star Game in Kansas City.

Sandoval has hit .307 with a .366 on-base percentage, .482 slugging percentage, and .848 OPS with six home runs and 25 RBI in 166 at-bats over 44 games for the Giants this season.

Wright is second in the Major Leagues with a .355 batting average, second with a .449 on-base percentage, and third in OPS at 1.013. Wright has nine home runs and 50 RBI in 273 at-bats this season.

If you didn’t cast your 25 votes for Wright, then don’t complain…

Original Post 9:00 AM

Later today, Major League Baseball’s All Stars will be announced. Just under the gun, I’ll regale you with my personal selections (starters in bold).

National League

Catcher – Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey. This is an easy one. Catching across baseball is pretty thin, so when you look up and see three catchers with batting averages north of .300 and on-base percentages north of .360, there’s not much debate. Carlos Ruiz is having a ridiculous year and you have to wonder where the Phillies, who already sit dead last in the NL East, would be without his contributions. Yadier Molina is living up to the rich deal he inked a few months ago, putting up Bengie-like offensive numbers. Buster Posey is having a great bounce-back year after missing most of 2011 with a gruesome ankle injury. Posey will probably get better as the ankle gets stronger. The best part about these three offensive catchers is that they’re three of the best defensive catchers, as well.

First Base – Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt. It’s Joey Votto’s world; we just live in it. Goldschmidt is quietly having a great season in Arizona. A very highly touted rookie, Goldschmidt showed flashes last season as a rookie, but seems to have put most of it together so far this season. He’ll get better, too. Bryan LaHair of the Chicago Cubs has had a real good season so far, and might have gotten the attention of Tony LaRussa as a reserve if the Cubs hadn’t benched him recently in favor of prospect-extraordinaire Anthony Rizzo.

Second Base – Aaron Hill, Brandon Phillips, Jose Altuve. Hill is lighting it up in Arizona. Among NL second basemen, he’s second in batting average, one measly percentage point behind the OBP leader and leads slugging percentage by a wide margin. He’s tied for the most home runs, has seven stolen bases to his credit, and is a solid defender. Phillips is second behind Hill in home runs, third in runs scored and leads in RBI. He’s also by far the best defensive second baseman in the league. Altuve leads in batting average and is third in both OBP and SLG%. He’s second in runs scored and has stolen the most bases. I wrestled with Dan Uggla, too, despite his .235 average. His plate discipline is off the charts, so his OBP actually leads all NL second baseman, and so do his runs scored. His power is unmatched at the position and believe it or not, he’s actually played a good second base. Altuve’s defense reminds me of…well…Dan Uggla. Altuve gets the nod, though, because given another viable option, I don’t think the NL wants Uggla anywhere near an All-Star team.

Third Base – David Wright, David Wright, David Wright.

Just kidding, but not really. Wright’s had a Votto-esque season thus far, and due to the injury to stalwart Ryan Zimmerman earlier in the year, there’s just not much competition. I’m going to go Chase Headley as my backup, for two reasons. I actually like Headley a lot as a ballplayer. He’s a very solid hitter and possibly the best defensive third baseman in the game. In a weak season for third basemen, he’s actually very deserving as the second-best in the league. He plays in San Diego, though, so no one’s ever heard of him. The second reason I’m picking him is that the Padres are worse than the Astros. If not for Headley, the Padres should just fold.

Shortstop – Jed Lowrie, Starlin Castro. Lowrie is realizing the potential he showed as the Red Sox hot prospect a couple of years ago. Riddled with injuries, the Sox moved on and dumped him for a AAA reliever. Suckers. Lowire is mashing, leading all NL shortstops in home runs, OBP and SLG%. Castro is as fun a player to watch in baseball. He’s a terrific fielder, though mental lapses sometimes get the better of him. He is only 22-years-old, however. He leads all shortstops in hits, is tied for first in batting average and stolen bases and is even third in SLG%

Outfield – Carlos Beltran (RF), Jason Heyward, Giancarlo Stanton, Andrew McCutchen (CF), Michael Bourn, Ryan Braun (LF), Carlos Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera. I won’t detail each player here much. Beltran is having a resurgent season, Braun is showing no ill-effects of his offseason drama and McCutchen is perhaps the most exciting young player in the game. Heyward’s defense is criminally underrated because of his offensive prowess and Stanton has as much raw power as anyone in the game. Bourn is second among NL outfielders in hits, has the most stolen bases and plays centerfield like Mays. Carlos Gonzalez is a Rockie. So he’s in. The .338/.396/.609 slash line helps a bit. Cabrera was statistically one of the worst hitters in all of baseball as a Brave in 2010, so what he’s doing now is literally a minor miracle.
Pitchers – R.A. Dickey, Zack Greinke, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, Johnny Cueto, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel (CL), Aroldis Chapman, Matt Belisle, Tyler Clippard. Dickey’s having a magical season. There’s some debate over who should start, with both Strasburg and Gonzalez getting some love, and I cannot argue their merits. However, both pitchers have so many years ahead of them. Dickey literally reinvented himself in his mid-30’s and may never again have an opportunity to add All-Star Gamer starter to his résumé. Kimbrel is light’s out in the bullpen and is one of the more reliable relievers in the game, and there’s not many. Should any of the starters not be able to pitch due to his team’s rotation, James McDonald, Madison Bumgarner and Wade Miley are all worthy replacements.

American League

Catcher – Joe Mauer, AJ Pierzynski. Like the NL, there’s not a lot of debate here. Welcome back, Joe. Mauer’s comeback is in full force, although the power’s not quite there. Pierzynski’s power surge is a little surprising but it’s accompanied with a respectable batting average and OBP.

First Base – Paul Konerko, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn. I had to. I didn’t really want to, but I had to. No Prince Albert. You can argue that Dunn’s .215 average doesn’t deserve it, but his OBP and SLG% are All-Star worthy, as is his home run and RBI total. Albert just doesn’t match up there. What’s not arguable is that Konerko is the right choice. The ageless slugger never stops hitting and Fielder, while seeing the effects of the more pitcher friendly Comerica Park, is still raking.

Second Base – Robinson Cano, Jason Kipnis. Cano is up there on the short list of best players in the game outright. His numbers dwarf everyone else’s, and Kipnis and Kinsler are really good players. Kipnis is second behind Cano in home runs and pairs that with more stolen bases than any other second baseman in the league. Kinsler has the sexy power/speed combo I love so much. Ben Zobrist held me up a little, but I stuck with Kinsler due to the speed. Zobrist is no slouch though, with seven stolen bases. Zobrst is also more of an outfielder.

Third Base – Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Mike Moustakas, Edwin Encarnacion. Cabrera is one of the best pure hitters in the game and the move back into the field hasn’t been as adventurous as expected. Sure, he’s no gold glover, but he hasn’t been terrible, and most thought he would be. Beltre is possibly the best all-around third baseman in baseball. I shouldn’t have to sell him. Mike Moustakas gets the nod over Brett Lawrie because he’s a Royal. That rule again. To be honest and fair, though, Moustakas is every bit as deserving and Lawrie. Statistically, it’s a toss-up. Each deserves and one isn’t more deserving than the other. But the Blue Jays will be well-represented and the Royals, after Moustakas, has Alex Gordon. A fine player, but not quite Edwin Encarnacion, who I think will start at DH.

Shortstop – Elvis Andrus, Asdrubal Cabrera, Derek Jeter. I’m not foolish enough to think Jeter isn’t getting voted in to start, but I wanted to recognize that Andrus and Cabrera are better players right now, especially Andrus. I think he’s vastly underrated. Besides leading all AL shortstops in on-base percentage and stolen bases (a deadly combination in front of the Rangers sluggers), he’s neck and neck with Jeter in batting average and has more runs scored by a wide margin. He’s also notched merely seven fewer RBI than Cabrera, despite ten fewer home runs.

Outfield – Jose Bautista (LF), Josh Reddick (RF), Mark Trumbo, Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton (CF), Adam Jones. A smaller pool than the NL outfield, but there’s a lot of versatility here. Trout, Hamilton and Jones are three solid centerfielders, and the corners can rotate. I want to note than Reddick isn’t a “rule” pick, because he plays for a miserable Oakland team. Among right fielders, he’s as good as Torii Hunter out there and is third in home runs and slugging. For good measure, he’s got eight stolen bases. Trumbo and Trout forced themselves into the Angels’ lineup, and Trout is actually a legitimate MVP candidate right now if he can maintain his pace. Adam Jones, albeit a little late, is finally playing like the kid Seattle coveted, and then traded away for Erik Bedard’s elbow surgeon.

Pitchers – Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, David Price, Yu Darvish, CJ Wilson, Jake Peavy, Joe Nathan (CL), Fernando Rodney, Scott Atchison, Chris Perez. I’m giving Sale the start. He’s third in wins, but only two off the pace, and leads the league in ERA. His peripherals suggest his numbers are legit. Case in point, he actually has a better strikeout-per-nine ratio than Justin Verlander. Joe Nathan has been a revelation in the Rangers bullpen, pitching better now than in his best years in Minnesota.

So there is it. Two 32-man rosters, every team represented and accounted for, and legitimately, too. There’s not one undeserving name in the bunch. Later today, we’ll see just how far off I am. Who did you pick?