Byrd captured the attention of Mets fans and earned himself a spot on the roster with an incredible spring training, in which he hit .357 with a .965 OPS and a team-leading nine doubles, five more than anyone else on the team. However, once the calender turned and regular season play began, Byrd struggled, and was relegated to a lesser role. He finished the month of April with a .232 batting average and a .759 OPS.

Since May began, Byrd has turned it on at the plate. Despite having a diminished role, Byrd has hit .357 with a  .988 OPS this month along with two home runs in 29 plate appearances.

The reason for Byrd’s decline over the past two seasons (other than just getting a little bit older) may very well be his plate discipline. Byrd, in his best years, was swinging at pitches outside the strike zone somewhere in the range of 29 to 30% of the time. That number has increased to the high-30% range over the past few years. This year, he is swinging at a career high 40.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, but recently, has improved on that dramatically. He stuck out in almost 32% of his plate appearances in April, striking out at least once in almost every game, but has lowered that significantly, to just 24% this month.

Compared to the rest of the outfield recently, Byrd has been by far the best hitter. Here is how he compares to the rest of the outfield this month:

Byrd has been overlooked the entire season, when in reality, he one of the best options the Mets have on the 40-man roster. Remember, not too long ago, Byrd was a reliable 10-15 home run hitter with a .280-.290 batting average, which isn’t great, but it is certainly better than the struggling Mike Baxter.

Mets at Cubs Series Preview

The Mets are playing terribly, and they need a team to beat up on. They have played three out of their last four series against teams above .500 and have suffered badly, losing six of their last seven games. Luckily, they play the Cubs this weekend, who, even though they might be better than the Mets, they are certainly easier to beat than the Pirates and Braves.

The Cubs are rebuilding. That’s very, very clear. Theo Epstein and the rest of Chicago’s front office is trying to build a team from the talented young core they have in place. So far, their plan seems to be working out well. Anthony Rizzo looks like he is a future star and Starlin Castro is shaping up to be a cornerstone piece at shortstop.

The Cubbie pitching staff is getting younger and with Jeff Samardzjia and Jackson to build their rotation around, they have a solid foundation for a playoff team. However, while the Cubs are building, they are still far off from being a playoff contender. They are currently 22nd in runs scored, and don’t have too many offensive threats. They have been carried almost exclusively by Rizzo and David DeJesus this season, rak=nking 24th in On-Base Percentage as a club. If it weren’t for those two, the offense would be one of, if not the worst in baseball. On the pitching side, their starting rotation has been solid, even without Matt Garza, but the bullpen has been awful. Aside from Kevin Gregg, who has been fantastic as Chicago’s closer as of late, they have received almost no consistent production out of the bullpen. Carlos Marmol has been himself (and therefore awful) and Kyuji Fujikawa has been unable to take his place. The Cubs as a team rank 22nd in baseball in bullpen ERA, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to get any better.

Long-term, while the Cubs are on the rise, they are still a very weak offensive team and have a long way to go before they become contenders. While two of the three pitching matchups this series don’t look great for the Mets, the series should be rather close.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey, RHP (56.1 IP, 256 ERA+, 4.43 K/BB) vs. Edwin Jackson, RHP (43.1 IP, 66 ERA+, 2.10 K/BB)

Jackson has failed to live up to expectations after signing a four-year, $52 million deal with the Cubs this winter. His 6.02 ERA is the worst on the Cubs among starters. He has been uncharacteristically wild, walking 4.2 batters per nine innings. Although some of his walk numbers from early on in his career are ugly, he has kept them largely under control the past few seasons. At least until now. He has failed to go more than six innings in a start this season. In his last start on May 11, he gave up two runs on four hits in 5.1 innings against the Nationals, walking two and striking out three.

Game 2:  Jeremy Hefner, RHP (41 IP, 80 ERA+, 1.69 K/BB) vs. Scott Feldman RHP (42.2 IP, 156 ERA+, 1.94 K/BB)

Feldman, 30, is your typical journey man starting pitcher. He pitched with Texas for eight years, in which he had a 4.81 ERA in 204 appearances. He has been much better since coming to the Cubs. He has put together a string of four outstanding starts, including his outing on April 26 against the Padres in which he gave up only two runs on three hits in nine innings, striking out 12 and walking a single batter. In his last start on May 12, he allowed one run on three hits in five innings against the Nationals.

Game 3: Dillon Gee, RHP (39.2 IP, 60 ERA+, 1.69 K/BB) vs. Travis Wood, LHP (53.1 IP, 195 ERA+, 2.12 K/BB)

Despite posting mediocre numbers from 2010 through 2012, Wood has been incredible this season. He leads the team with a 2.03 ERA in eight starts and has given up only 5.4 hits per nine innings. What has been the key to his success? Most likely luck. Wood hasn’t changed anything significant in terms of his approach and none of his pitches have gotten significantly better. However, his .193 BABIP makes it seem like he might come down to Earth soon. Wood shut out the Rockies over seven innings in his last start, allowing just two hits.

Series Notes

The Mets snapped their six-game losing streak with a 5-2 win at St. Louis yesterday…New York is 3-7 in its last 10 games…The Mets are 6-11 on the road this year.

In addition to this three-game series vs. the Cubs, the Mets will return to Chicago later this year to play the White Sox in a two-game series (June 25-26).

The Mets will play four straight day games (yesterday in St. Louis and three in Chicago) for the first time since September 3-6, 2010 (three in Chicago and one in Washington)…New York is 7-10 in day games…David Wright is batting .379 during day games, the fourth-highest average in the National League.

Daniel Murphy went 4-4 with two doubles and a walk on Thursday…The four hits tied his career-high…It was the eighth time he’s collected four hits in a game, last on April 12 at Minnesota…Murphy is 10-for-his-last-16 (.625) over his last four games and currently has a five-game hitting streak (11-20, .550) …Murphy is batting .394 on the road this season, the best mark in the NL and is second in the majors.

The Mets scored five runs yesterday but have scored three or fewer runs in eight of their last 10 games and in 13 of their last 19 games…New York is averaging 4.34 runs per game, the fifth-most in the NL and the 14th-most in the majors.

New York is hitting .238 (15-63) with runners in scoring position over its last 10 games…The Mets are fifth in the NL and 12th in the majors with a .266 (76-286) batting average with RISP…The club has 11 home runs in such situations, tied for the fifth most in the majors…John Buck has four of those home runs, tied for second in the majors…

David Wright is hitting .441 (15-34) with RISP, the fifth-best mark in the National League…As a team the Mets have stranded 256 runners, including eight yesterday, tied for 25th in the majors.

John Buck had one RBI yesterday and is tied for third in the NL with 31 RBI…Buck’s 31 RBI lead all catchers…San Francisco’s Buster Posey is second with 22 RBI.

Marlon Byrd is 4-for-his-last 8 (.500)…He is seven hits shy of 1,100 for his career…Byrd has at least one hit in seven of eight games this month (10-27, .370) with two home runs and six RBI.

Bobby Parnell has three wins and two saves this month…Parnell has hurled 6.0 scoreless frames in May…He leads all relievers with four wins and is eighth in the NL with a 1.04 ERA (min. 17.0 innings).

The Mets used their first-round pick last year on shortstop Gavin Cecchini.

Last month, I had the chance to conduct an email interview with John Sickels of the well-known minor league blog, Minor League Ball. Sickels worked for ESPN many years ago, where he had his own column about minor league baseball. Here is some of what we talked about:

Q: Were the Mets too conservative with the Gavin Cecchini selection?

A: I thought Cecchini was a slight overdraft but I didn’t really think that about Nimmo. By slight, I think he was more of a late first round guy rather than 12 th overall, but that’s my opinion and obviously the Mets disagreed. Their thinking is that a premium defensive shortstop with excellent makeup and a chance to be at least a decent hitter is not easy to find. As with Nimmo, Cecchini is very young of course, just a college freshman age-wise, so it is way too soon to know who is right.

Q: What do you think of the prospects the Mets got for R.A. Dickey?

A: I thought they did well. D’Arnaud has the offensive and defensive ability to be an All-Star catcher, and at least a solid long-term regular. He just needs to stay healthy. I love Syndergaard, who has made a lot of progress with his secondary pitches. He could be a top of the rotation pitcher. They are both elite prospects.

Q: Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia — bullpen or rotation?

A: Bullpen in both cases. I used to think that Familia might make it as a starter, but at this point I think his command and mechanical problems make him a better fit in the pen.

Q: Vicente Lupo wowed in the Dominican Summer League with a .343/.500/.608 slash line and ten home runs over just 65 games. He is a bit of a mystery to many Mets fans. What do you know about him?

A: Well Lupo was a big-bonus guy out of Venezuela who was supposed to hit for power and average. He was terrible in 2011, but supposedly he was sick most of the summer and not at full strength. As you know, he was outstanding last year, more in keeping with the original reports. However, Dominican Summer League performance is not very predictive, so at this point I think we just have to wait and see.

Q: Will changing Triple-A affiliates from Buffalo to Las Vegas have any impact on player development?

A: Las Vegas is an extreme hitters park in a pro-offense league. In one sense, it can be a useful trial-by-fire thing for for pitchers: if you can survive in Vegas, you are better-prepared mentally and emotionally for the major leagues. On the other hand, it does introduce complications in player development for players on both sides of the ball. Breaking pitches don’t act the same. Hitters can get into bad habits that don’t harm them statistically in Vegas, but can come back to haunt them in the majors.

Read more of Sickels’ work at Minor League Ball.

Zack Wheeler has 40 strikeouts this season (in 36 IP), tied for second in the Pacific Coast League. However, he has also walked 17, tied for fourth-worst in the PCL.

This one comes from Jay via email:

When do you think Wheeler will get the major league call up and how large of an impact do you see him having on this season?

If Zack Wheeler continues to mix his pitches and keep hitters guessing, which made him so devastating last year, he will be with the Mets sooner rather than later. According to all accounts, he failed to mix up his pitches over his first few starts, becoming predictable and hittable, something he has reportedly improved on in his last few starts. There is no question about talent. This guy’s got it. He has the pure stuff to match up against most major league pitchers right now. It will be control of those deadly pitches that will determine the path of his career.

As for the immediate future, my best guess is Wheeler makes his debut in late June or early July, for a few reasons, the first being his MLB-readiness. After his struggles early on, it’s clear that Wheeler isn’t quite ready for the majors yet. The staff in Triple-A 9s still tinkering and perfecting his mechanics, which may have been a contributing factor to his control problems in early April. Once he gets those last few kinks out, he will be ready, but he isn’t ready yet.

The second and probably most significant reason long-term for the Mets, is the cost of bringing Wheeler up too early. You see, if he’s brought up any time before mid-June, he may be eligible for Super Two status. That means he gets an extra year of arbitration. That doesn’t mean the Mets keep him for another year, it just means that one of his pre-arb years in which the Mets would determine his salary would be eliminated and replaced with an etra year of arbitration. Why is that significant? Well, the cost adds up. If he is a success like the Mets hope he will be, his fourth (and last) arbitration year could be very costly. Overall, Super Two players cost their organizations an average of $12 million more than a non-Super Two player, according to Amazin’ Avenue. In an organization where value is very important, the Mets aren’t going to rush Wheeler, especially in a year where the playoffs are probably out of reach regardless of what the Mets do with him.

To answer the second part of your question, his impact could be significant. Once he comes up, he will certainly jump into the rotation full-time, so he will have a big impact whether he is a success or not. How good will he be? That, however, is the most important question and unfortunately, the only one that can’t be answered.

Have a question about the Mets minor league system? Send them in to metsminorleaguemailbag@gmail.com

Kevin Plawecki is leading the South Atlantic League in hitting.

Welcome to the second edition of Who’s Hot, Who’s Not. This week was a very intriguing one for followers of the Mets minor league system. We saw the rise of two top pitching prospects, and the fall of one who had been absolutely dominant. We also saw Kevin Plawecki continue to show why the Mets made him a first-round pick last year. He leads off our Hot List…

Who’s Hot

•   Kevin Plawecki, C (SAV): Plawecki continues to rake and prove that he is too advanced for the South Atlantic League. In a stadium  in which hits are hard to come by, Plawecki has hit the cover off the ball, and put up very good power numbers. This week, he hit .438 with a .500 On-Base Percentage and slugged .750. He is currently leading the league in average, On-Base Percentage, Slugging, doubles, and total bases.
• Noah Syndergaard, RHP (STL): After giving up seven runs against Fort Myers on April 18, Syndergaard has been lights out, tossing three straight terrific outings. In his two starts this week, he allowed just two runs (one earned) on 13 hits in 13 innings. Even more impressive, he struck out 12 and walked just three.
• Zack Wheeler, RHP (LAV): Wheeler, after some awful early-season struggles, has bounced back well. This week, he allowed one run on eight hits over 12.2 innings, while walking just two batters. He has also been throwing more strikes, which is the key to him reaching the majors. Wheeler has started using his breaking ball again, which may be the reason he has been able to put it back together on the mound.

Honorable Mention: Travis Taijeron, OF (STL): Taijeron was on fire this week, hitting six doubles an batting .500 and getting on base in well over 50% of his plate appearances. Taijeron struggled in the second half, so it’s great to see him be able to put it back together again.

Who’s Not

• Rafael Montero, RHP (BIN): Montero was on fire last week, making last week’s Hot List. This week, however, was a completely different story for Montero. In one start, he tossed 6.2 innings but allowed ten runs (seven of them earned) on ten hits against Erie. That came after five straight starts of alloweing two runs or less to start the season.
• Jacob deGrom, RHP (BIN): DeGrom had one so-so start and one bad start this week for Binghamton. In his first against Akron, he allowed five runs on seven hits (including two home runs) against Akron. In the second, he gave up three in six innings. However, for the entire week, he was only able to strike out three batters in 11.1 innings. It’s only two starts, but deGrom averaged almost eight strikeouts per nine innings last season.
• Brian Bixler, SS (LAV): Bixler, who signed as a minor league free agent this offseason, had a very tough week at the plate, batting .150/.190/.150 with no extra-base hits and five strikeouts in 20 at-bats.

The Braves acquired both Upton brothers this offseason.

The Braves made headlines this offseason with their acquisition of B.J. Upton in November, signing him to a five year deal worth about $75 million. However, just when the offseason was winding down and it appeared the Braves were done, they surprised everyone and acquired B.J.’s brother Justin from the Diamondbacks. The tandem added a boost to the Atlanta offense that they so badly needed, and had some experts picking them to challenge the Nationals for the NL crown.

Thus far, it appears the Braves made the right move, at least with Justin Upton. If the season ended today, he would be the unanimous MVP. Upton is leading the majors with 12 home runs, three more than anyone else. That, to go along with a not-too-shabby .287/.387/.693 has carried the otherwise mediocre Braves offense.

In reality, it has been the pitching that has carried the Atlanta Braves this season. Despite trading Tommy Hanson this winter, the Braves lead baseball in team ERA with an outstanding 3.10 mark coming into today’s action. More specifically, it has been their bullpen, which has been even stronger than last year’s. Craig Kimbrel has continued his dominance, striking out 15 batters in 10.2 innings. Kimbrel and Jordan Walden, who the Braves received in the Tommy Hanson trade, are among five relievers with at least ten innings pitched and an ERA under two. Compare that to the Mets, who have two such pitchers.

This Braves team is good (yes, even better than the Marlins if you can believe it) and will put up a very tough fight, especially in close games. The key for the Mets will be scoring runs off their starting pitching, because  if they trail in the late innings, the odds are stacked against them.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Shaun Marcum (5.2 IP, 50 ERA+, 1.33 K/BB) vs. Mike Minor (31.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 5.40 K/BB)

Minor, 25, was selected seventh overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves and quickly rose to stardom in their minor league system. Once he reached the big leagues, he never pitched like the ace some thought he could become. Minor came into the season with a career ERA of 4.37 in 302.2 career innings. This year, however, has been much better for him, at least so far. Over five starts, he has a 3.13 ERA and career-best 1.4 BB/9 rate. He was roughed up for six runs in 6.2 innings against the juggernaut Detroit offense, but had a 1.80 ERA in four starts coming into that outing.

Game 2: Jonathon Niese (32.2 IP, 112 ERA+, 1.31 K/BB) vs. Julio Teheran (28.1 IP, 77 ERA+, 2.50 K/BB)

Teheran has been a highly-regarded prospect since his breakout year in the minors in 2009. He worked his way through the minors fairly quickly, until stalling at Triple-A last season. Coming off a dominant season in Triple-A in 2011, Teheran failed to earn a job out of spring training, and was sent back. Once he was back in the minors, Teheran wasn’t the same pitcher. His 3.0 walks per nine wasn’t terrible, but his 6.7 strikeouts was a career-low. What was most concerning was the 18 home runs he gave up, doubling his previous career-worst of nine. Teheran has a 5.08 ERA in five starts, striking out 20 and walking eight in 28.1 innings.

Game 3: Matt Harvey (40.1 IP, 237 ERA+, 3.83 K/BB) vs. Tim Hudson (35 IP, 101 ERA+, 2.18 K/BB)

Even at age 37, Hudson continues to be the rock of the Atlanta rotation. In 11 of his past 12 seasons, Hudson has posted an ERA below four. This year, he has a 3.86 ERA in 35 innings over six starts. In his last outing, Hudson shut down the Nationals, holding them to one run on three hits in seven innings on only 96 pitches.

Series News & Notes

• The Mets sent down a struggling Collin Cowgill today in favor of the red-hot Andrew Brown, who has been tearing it up with the Las Vegas 51s. Brown was hitting .367 with a .440 On-Base Percentage and two home runs in 25 games.
• Jordany Valdespin slugged a three-run pinch-hit home run on Wednesday to give the Mets a 5-4 lead…It was the Mets first pinch-hit home run of the year and the sixth pinch-hit of Valdespin’s brief career…He is tied for second all-time on the club’s pinch-hit home run list.
• New York has scored three or fewer runs in eight of itslast 12 games and is hitting .202 (89-441) over that span…Overall, the Mets are seventh in the majors scoring 4.85 runs per game.
• Craig Kimbrel recorded his 98th career save Monday in Atlanta’s 3-2 win over Washington…Kimbrel’s career save percentage of 89.1 (98/110) ranks fi fth all-time among pitchers with at least 100 save opportunities (see chart at right)…According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the quickest anyone has ever reached 100 career saves was Eric Gagne, who did in his 104th opportunity, followed by John Smoltz (107th) and Joakim Soria (112th)…Kimbrel could tie Soria for third all time if he can convert each of his next two opportunities.
• The Atlanta bullpen’s homerless streak was snapped at 21 games last Friday (April 26) at Detroit when reliever Anthony Varvaro surrendered a three-run shot in the fourth inning…Since the franchise moved to Atlanta (1966), that was the furthest into a season (21 games) that a Braves team has gone without the bullpen allowing a home run.

The only decent player on Miami’s roster is Giancarlo Stanton, of course, but even he has been on-and-off this season. He didn’t hit his first home run until his 18th game of the season two nights ago against the Cubs. He went on to hit two on Sunday, but his power numbers still have left much to be desired. His walk numbers and BABIP are at normal levels for Stanton, so perhaps it’s the shoulder contusion that Stanton suffered a few weeks ago which has been bringing down his production.

Overall, the Marlins are a team the Mets should handily beat. Although some cynics predicted the Mets to compete with the Marlins for last place, that seems unlikely with the way the Marlins have started the season. Hopefully the Mets will be able to use this series to get back on track.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey, RHP (35 IP, 233 ERA+, 3.90 K/BB) vs. Jose Fernandez, RHP (20 IP, 84 ERA+, 2.38 K/BB)

The Mets saw Fernandez make his big league debut against them on April 7, when he allowed one run on three hits in five innings while striking out eight. He has had one good start and two iffy ones since then. In his last start, which came against Minnesota, he gave up four runs on six hits in five innings. In his start before that, he gave up five earned in four innings against the Reds. One thing to take note of in game one of this series will be Fernandez’s pitch count. The Marlins have coddled him thus far, keeping him around 8- pitches in each of his starts.

Game 2: Jeremy Hefner, RHP (21 IP, 70 ERA+, 1.09 K/BB) vs. Kevin Slowey, RHP (29.2 IP, 155 ERA+, 3.50 K/BB)

After spending an injury-riddled 2012 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate, the once top prospect Slowey got another shot with the Marlins. Slowey has been their best pitcher so far, putting up a team-best 2.43 ERA. It’s hard to say long-term whether Slowey can hold up, but he has been very good so far and keeping his walk numbers down, which he has always been known for. In his last start against the Cubs, Slowey gave up three runs in six innings while striking out six and not walking a batter.

Game 3: Dillon Gee, RHP (25.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB) vs. Wade LeBlanc, LHP (24.2 IP, 61 ERA+, 2.00 K/BB)

LeBlanc was traded to Miami for John Baker in November 2011 after four years with the Padres. LeBlanc spent last season as a starter and reliever for the Marlins, posting a 3.67 ERA in 25 games, nine of them starts. He hasn’t been as terrible as his numbers might say. His ERA is inflated from his April 15 start in which he let up seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Nationals. He has otherwise been decent. In his last start against Chicago, he gave up four runs on eight hits in six innings.

Series News & Notes

• Adeiny Hechavarria, who you might remember from the last series these two teams played, suffered a bruised elbow on April 16 and was placed on the disabled list the next day. Hechavattia went 4-for-10 in the last series against the Mets in early April.
• New York embarks on its second road trip of the year with three games in Miami and then three contests in Atlanta…The Mets will play 13 of their next 19 away from Citi Field…New York went 3-5 on its first road trip of the season…The Mets were 38-43 on the road in 2012.
• David Wright is tied for second in the majors with 19 walks and Lucas Duda is tied for fourth in the majors with 18…The Mets have drawn 87 walks, tied for the fifth-most in the majors.
• David Wright is day-to-day with a stiff neck. He will miss the first game of the series.
• The Mets have hit at least one home run in 17 of their 23 games and 25 on the year, tied for the sixth-most in the National League…The Mets have hit three grand slams to lead the majors.
• John Buck’s eight home runs tie him for the third-most by a Met during the month of April with Dave Kingman (1982), Jeff Kent (1994), Todd Hundley (1996) and Mike Piazza(2001)…Carlos Delgado (2006) and Dave Kingman (1976) hold the club record with nine home runs in the month of April.

Welcome to the first post in a weekly series called “Who’s Hot, Who’s Not,” in which we look at the hottest and coldest players in the Mets’ minor league system from the past week. Here’s a look back at the week that was. NOTE: Stats are from April 20 through April 27.

Who’s Hot

• Jayce Boyd 1B (SAV)- Boyd has come out of nowhere this season, hitting .405/.490/.583 through his first 22 games with two homers and nine doubles, the same number he had in 54 games with the Brooklyn Cyclones last year. With Brooklyn, Boyd hit just .239/.320/.368 with five home runs. The 2012 sixth-round pick batted .500/.581/.769 with a home run and four doubles. 
• Kevin Plawecki C (SAV)- Boyd and Plawecki have led the offensive charge for Savannah this season and are two big reasons why they have gotten off to such a hot start. The power-hitting Plawecki already hit four homers through his first 21 games, including one last week. Las week, Plawecki batted an impressive .440/.483/.680 with three doubles to go along with his home run.
• Rafael Montero RHP (BIN)- Montero has been terrific thus far for Binghamton,putting up a 1.99 ERA in 27.2 innings and a ridiculous 11.6 K/9 rate, having some Mets fans calling for a promotion to the big leagues. While that is unlikely, Montero may soon earn a promotion to Triple-A Las Vegas. This past week, Montero, in two starts, allowed two runs in 11 innings while striking out 14 and walking just two.

Honorable Mention: Domingo Tapia RHP (STL)- It was almost a toss-up between Rafael Montero and Domingo Tapia. Both put up very impressive numbers this week. Tapia tossed 12.2 innings in two starts, allowed four runs (only two earned) and struck out 11. He has a 2.51 ERA in 25.1 innings over five starts.

Who’s Not

• Brandon Nimmo OF (SAV)- After a very hot start, Nimmo has gone ice cold, hitting well under the Mendoza line at just .091 over the last week. His .286 On-Base Percentage and .182 Slugging Percentage are also far worse than what we saw earlier in the season from Nimmo. Hopefully he can turn it around soon.
• Cam Maron C (STL)- Maron also started off the season well, hitting .286 through ten games but has struggled since. His batting average has now dropped below .240. This week, he hit .154/.1185/.154.
• Collin McHugh RHP (LAS)- McHugh has allowed only one earned run through 18 innings this season before two bad starts this week. Over 12.1 innings, McHugh got walloped for 20 hits and nine runs allowed, striking out just seven. This kind of week happens to every Vegas pitcher, and isn’t something to be concerned about unless it carries on over his next few starts.

Ryan Howard is not the player he used to be.

The Mets begin a three-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies tonight at Citizens Bank Park, their first road series of the year and their first against a decent team.

Tha Phillies are currently at a crossroads. Where health and age meet talent. The Phillies are getting older, and this may be their last year to make a run at the World Series, although it’s very unlikely. The Phillies went 81-81 last season, spending half the year without Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. They have both back this year, but neither is the same player they used to be. Howard struck out in a career-high 33.9% of his plate appearances, while batting just .219. 57.1% of the balls he hit last year were ground balls. That’s significantly higher than his 39.4% career average, and a bad sign for a slugger. Utley has been slowly losing his power. His Isolated Slugging Percentage (ISO) was just .173 last season, compared to a .213 career average. A healthy spring training does not necessarily mean a better year for those two either, as they are both another year older and another year slower.

The pitching staff isn’t looking much better, either. After losing Joe Blanton and Vance Worley, the Phillies’ once-great rotation is lacking depth. And although it appears Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels are as good as ever, Roy Halladay is showing signs of age. He had a 4.49 ERA in 25 starts last year, and hasn’t looked much better this year.

While there is an outside chance the Phillies make the playoffs, it’s unlikely. They are only a shell of the group that dominated the division a few years ago, and they will only be getting worse from here as their expensive assets become less tradeable with age. Nonetheless, they are probably about on-par with the Mets right now, which will make this series a fun one to watch.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Matt Harvey (2012: 59.1 IP, 141 ERA+, 2.69 K/BB) vs. Roy Halladay (2012: 156.1 IP, 89 ERA+, 3.67 K/BB)

Halladay hasn’t been himself lately, struggling this spring and in his first start, in which he went 3.1 innings, allowing five runs and two home runs. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com talked to a scout about Hallday. Here is some of what he said:

“If you didn’t know it was Roy Halladay out there,” he said, “you would say, ‘This guy looks like a journeyman.’”

A journeyman. For more than a decade, that would have been the last word anyone ever would have attached to a description of Roy Halladay. But now he finds himself a few weeks from his 36th birthday with more than 33,000 pitches on the odometer. And all of a sudden, the same scout said, “he looks like a guy who doesn’t have a whole lot left in his tank.”

“I didn’t see anything alarming,” the scout went on. “Nothing where you’d say he’s doing this or doing that, and that’s what was wrong. I just think he’s thrown a lot of pitches over the years. He’s always kept himself in great shape, so it isn’t that. But you’ve only got so many throws in that arm.”

He may be right: this may be the end for Halladay

Game 2: Dillon Gee (2012: 109.2 IP, 94 ERA+,3.34 K/BB) vs. Cliff Lee (2012: 211 IP, 127 ERA+, 7.39 K/BB)

Lee was horribly unlucky last season. Despite posting a 3.16 ERA and 3.06 xFIP (first in baseball), the Phillies lost most of the games Lee started. His win-loss record from last year is completely misleading. He is still one of the best in the game, walking only 1.219 batters per nine while striking out 8.8. In his last outing, Lee tossed eight shutout innings, allowing just two hits and striking out eight.

Game 3: Jeremy Hefner (2012: 93.2 IP, 76 ERA+, 3.44 K/BB) vs. Kyle Kendrick (2012: 159.1 IP, 103 ERA+, 2.37 K/BB)

Kendrick has proven himself to be a solid option at the back of the rotation with an occasional stint as a long man. With a career 4.7 K/9 rate, he doesn’t dominate, but he doesn’t walk too many hitters either, with a 2.61 BB/9 ratio. Kendrick allowed five runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings in his last start against Kansas City.

Series News & Notes

• Carlos Ruiz, who batted .325 with a career-high of 16 home runs is still serving a 25-game suspension for violation of Major League Baseball’s drug policy.
• The Mets have hit at least one home run in each of their first six games, the longest such stretch to open a season since New York hit a home run in six straight games to begin the 1987 campaign. That team went on to hit home runs in their first eight games.
• David Wright played his 61st consecutive game without an error yesterday, extending the franchise record for third basemen. Lenny Randle is second on the list with 54 consecutive errorless games.
• In his final start in 2012, Harvey allowed a leadoff home run to Jimmy Rollins on September 19…That was the only hit and run allowed by Harvey over seven innings as he racked up seven strikeouts in a no-decision…the Mets lost, 3-2.

Travis d’Arnaud, along with Zack Wheeler headline the Las Vegas 51s roster.

The Mets changed Triple-A affiliates this offseason, going from Buffalo to Las Vegas and from the International League to the Pacific Coast League. The biggest storyline for this team will be how the move affects development. The Pacific Coast League, especially Las Vegas, is notorious for inflated power numbers. It may be harder to judge how well a player is developing because hitters will have more home runs and pitchers will see their ERA shoot up as well. It will be interesting to see how the prospects react as well, with the top two prospects in the system set to play at least the first month with Las Vegas.

The Big Names

• Zack Wheeler (RHP)- It’s only a matter of time before the top Mets prospect gets called up to the majors. Wheeler should only be with the 51s for a few months, coming up in July at the latest. 
• Travis d’Arnaud (C)- d’Arnaud was the centerpiece of the R.A. Dickey trade last December, and for good reason. d’Arnaud looks like the complete package, both at the plate and with the glove. His power has developed over the past two years into one of his best tools. Last year, he hit 16 homers in 67 games in Triple-A before a torn PCL ended his season.
• Wilmer Flores (INF)- After struggling in the lower minors for a few years (as a result of being rushed), Flores had a resurgent season last year for Advanced-A St. Lucie and Double-A Binghamton. The long-awaited power numbers finally came, as Flores slugged .479 with 18 home runs in 130 total minor league games. In his third year in St. Lucie, he hit .289/.336/.463 with ten home runs in 64 games, earning himself an FSL All-Star Game selection. He was then promoted to Binghamton, hwere he hit even better, batting .311/.363/.494 with eight home runs in 66 games. He is still young for the league, currently the seventh-youngest player in Triple-A and the fourth youngest in the Pacific Coast League. If Flores can keep it up, all that’s left is finding a position.
• Jeurys Familia (RHP) Note: Familia was sent down on Saturday and will be with the 51s for the foreseeable future- Familia had a down season last year with the Buffalo Bisons, struggling as a starting pitcher. He made 28 starts and had a 4.73 ERA, along with a very concerning 4.8 walks per nine rate. His poor performance finally convinced the Mets that he belongs in the bullpen, which is where he will be this season for Las Vegas.
• Matt den Dekker (CF)- Note: Broken wristThe former fifth-round pick den Dekker tore the cover off the ball in half a season with Binghamton, but struggled to hit .200 in the second half with the Bisons. He batted .340/.397/.563 with eight home runs in 56 Double-A games. After moving to Triple-A, he hit just .220/.256/.373 in 77 games. His stirkeout and walk rates were awful, as he struck out in 28.4% of his Plate appearances, while walking only 4.4%. Those numbers are among the worst in his minor league career. Den Dekker must cut down on the strikeouts if he will ever play regularly in the majors. His incredible defense isn’t going to carry him to success. Den Dekker has shown a trend throughout his short career of needing an adjustment period to each new level, which has some people very hopeful that he will start to hit again once he comes back from a broken wrist later this season.

The Sleepers

• Juan Lagares (OF)- The speedy and versatile Lagares hit .283/.334/.389 between St. Lucie and Binghamton last season. He can play all three outfield positions, making him a possibility for the Mets bench late this season if things go right.
• Andrew Brown (OF)- Brown was a longshot to make the team in spring training, and was cut before the season started. However, Brown still has a chance to make some noise with his power. He has put up consistent power numbers throughout his minor league career and could play a role on the Met bench as a power-hitting pinch hitter if someone gets hurt.

Other Names to Watch

• Reese Havens (2B)- The seemingly always hurt Reese Havens was finally cut from the 40-man roster in the week leading up to Opening Day. Havens, 26, has never played a full season without injury and in his six-year career, has only played in 308 games. If he can stay healthy and the power that scouts have been talking about since he was in college finally shows up, there is still a chance he has a role with the big league club.
• Collin McHugh (RHP)- McHugh profiles as a long man or back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher. He had a solid season in the minors last year, posting a 2.91 ERA in 25 starts with Binghamton and Buffalo, walking 2.8 batters per nine and striking out 8.2. He struggled in a short stint with the big league club, allowing 21 runs (18 earned) in 21.1 innings over eight appearances.
• Zach Lutz (3B)- Lutz has put up solid numbers for most of his minor league career, and almost made the team out of spring training. He hit .295/.404/.496 in 78 minor league games last season.

Conor Glassey of Baseball America did a very interesting Q&A session with Mets Scouting Director Tommy Tanous. Tanous had some cool insights into the world of scouting, touching on how technology, statistics, amateur showcases, and more have changed the world of scouting. Here is just a little bit of what he said:

Scouting is based on opinions, and it’s always said that you can’t properly evaluate the success of a draft until about five years down the road. So, how do you go about evaluating yourself as a scout, and evaluating the job that your staff is doing?

Nobody knows who has the best draft, until these players actually start playing and start getting deeper into their career. I judge our draft, and our staff, and my own performance by, did we follow our process? There are a lot of different ways of skinning a cat. There are some teams that are stuff-oriented with a pitcher, they want guys with great stuff. There are others who obviously want great stuff, but they’re more concerned about arm action. They’re both right in a way, but what is your process, what is your philosophy, and did you, as a staff, stick to it? I think that’s how you judge yourself as a staff. Because, if your process is solid, and your philosophy is solid—and there can be many different philosophies—but if you stick to them, I think you have the best chance of having success. I think you can get in trouble if you have one philosophy one year, a totally different philosophy another year, and you’re constantly changing. If you have a philosophy you believe in, certainly you’re going to make some small adjustments as the year goes by, but if you have your beliefs and you stick to them, and your staff believes in them, I think that’s the way you have your best drafts.

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Scouting is obviously a subjective business. But it’s important to remain objective, too. I did a feature a couple years ago called “Scouts On Scouting,” where I interviewed scouts about their jobs, and one thing a guy told me that really stuck out to me, that I really thought was neat, is a thing he does when he does pro coverage. The first day he gets there for BP, he takes all his notes without getting a roster, so that he’s not influenced by the names or the statistics. Are there any tricks like that, that you use yourself, or little things you try to teach new scouts?

Well, they call that scouting with your eyes. It’s nice when you do that, and then at the end of your series, or in the middle of your series, you pick up the stats and the guys you circled, that you feel are prospects, are all having good years. Then it makes you feel better as an evaluator. The main thing I’ll try and stress upon all our scouts—our crosscheckers and our area supervisors—is this: You evaluate with a checklist, whatever that checklist may be. Whatever you feel is important—and obviously I’m not going to go into the New York Mets’ checklist—but we have certain things we like in a pitcher, and certain things we like in a hitter. When you evaluate a player in February, you go down that checklist. He does this, this, this, this, this that we like; he doesn’t do this so well. Well, February turns into April, and we want that same checklist. We want that player being graded on the same criteria he was graded two months earlier on. Otherwise, I’ve seen too many scouts, they’ll go in in February, and they’ll have a certain criteria of what they like. By May, that criteria has changed, and really it’s like having two different scouts at the game. You’re not being consistent, and you’re not being true to the list, or to the player. That’s probably the best advice I can give a young scout. Keep changing, keep getting better—look, my criteria for what I look for now, in 2013, is much different than it was in 1996, because I’ve matured and have more experience, and now I’ve seen certain things that make me feel more comfortable with a hitter. But, I try and have the same process when I go to the game everyday. Therefore, I’m giving it more of a consistent opinion.

I think it will be interesting to see how the scouting world adjusts to advanced technology, which has been taking over the game over the last decade. Pitch f/x and other tools now make every pitch’s release point, movement, location, and velocity are available to the public. Here’s what Tanous had to say about it:

I know some teams are using those, and you see them certainly at the Area Codes and the other events, too. Seeing how hard the ball comes off the bat, velocity, spin rates, I think it’s just starting now with these companies, and I think it’s going to take a few years—like anything new—I think it’ll take a few years before teams have total confidence in it. Just like the video camera took a few years, but I think it’ll eventually get there, and there’ll be a system that’s probably used more than others, and a system that teams probably feel more comfortable with.

Tanous has been with the organization since June 2011 and in his current role since November 2011. He was previously the Director of International Scouting for the Diamondbacks in 2009 and 2010. Before that, he worked in the Rangers, Angels, and Brewers organizations as a scout.

Read the rest of the interview here.

Rafael Montero headlines the B-Mets 2013 roster.

While, for most of the season, it will be the St. Lucie Mets grabbing the headlines, the Binghamton Mets have an intriguing roster as well. Bingo will feature a solid pitching staff, headlined by Rafael Montero, as well as some prospects that have largely flown under the radar in their careers, but have talent, such as Wilfredo Tovar and Alonzo Harris. The B-Mets will also feature two interesting names who haven’t been able to put it all together yet: Cory Vaughn and Cesar Puello, both of whom have very high ceilings. Now, let’s get to the players.

The Big Names

• Rafael Montero (RHP)- Montero has risen through the minors unusually quickly, playing for seven of the Mets’ minor league affiliates after signing with them before the 2011 season. Although he had a fine 2011 season between the Dominican Summer, Gulf Coast, Appalachian, and New York-Penn leagues, he didn’t really put himself on the map until last season. Last season between Savannah and St. Lucie, he posted a 2.36 ERA in 122 innings, striking out 8.1 per nine while walking just 1.4. Scouts credit his strong secondary pitches for his successes so far in his career. His changeup and slider are both well-developed, which is why he has dominated and moved up so quickly. 
• Wilfredo Tovar (SS)- Until last season, Tovar looked like a weak-hitting shortstop with a good glove, but also a bat that would keep him from the majors. In 2011, Tovar hit .251/.318/.318 in a full season with Savannah. He was moved up a level to St. Lucie last season, in which he started to look like more than a weak-hitting shortstop. In half a season with St. Lucie, he upped his batting line to .284/.377/.385 with 12 stolen bases in 65 games, earning himself an FSL All-Star Game selection. What was especially promising was his strikeout and walk rates, which were better than ever. He walked in 11.3% of his plate appearances, compared to his career-best of 8.0%, and struck out at a 6.6% clip, also the best mark of his career. He struggled in Binghamton last year, which is why he is repeating the league, but if he can harness the patience that we saw out of him over the first half of 2012, he could become a Ruben Tejada-type player.
• Cory Vaughn (RF)- The Mets don’t have many pure power hitters in their system, but Cory Vaughn is one of them, and among the best. He is the definition of a power hitter: getting on base, and hitting a ton of extra-base hits. Last year, he hit 51 extra-base hits in 126 games with St. Lucie, 23 of them home runs. Vaughn, however, has speed that most power hitters don’t have. He swiped a career-best 21 bases last season. Vaughn’s biggest weakness right now is his hit tool. Everything else is there. If he starts hitting for a higher batting average, everything will come together.
• Cesar Puello (RF)- Once dubbed the next Carlos Beltran, Puello may have the best tools in the entire Met system. He has speed, power, and is a solid defender in the outfield. It’s the health that will dictate his future. Last season, Puello hit .260/.328/.423 with 26 extra-base hits in 66 games.

The Sleepers

• Danny Muno (2B/SS)- Muno was suspended for PED use last year, after hitting .355 in Brooklyn in 2011. The 2011 eighth-round pick still put up solid numbers, even after the suspension. He hit for a little bit of power, knocking 16 doubles, two triples, and six homers in 81 games with St. Lucie. He put up a .280/.387/.412 batting line. Muno walked an excellent 14.2% of the time while striking out only 15.1%. Oh, and he stole 19 bases.
• Tyler Pill (RHP)- Pill is seeing his stock rising fast, and although he isn’t put in the same group as Wheeler, Fulmer, or Syndergaard, he has made a name for himself as a top-30 prospect. He only throws in the high-80s, but uses his excellent command to get hitters out. Last season, he put up an impressive 4.77 K/BB rate with a 2.31 ERA in 113 innings between St. Lucie and Savannah.
• Jack Leathersich (LHP)- Leathersich has put up amazing strikeout numbers out of the bullpen since being drafted in 2011 in the fifth round out of UMass-Lowell. Leathersich is on the fast track to the major league bullpen, and will continue to move quickly if his strikeout numbers remain this high. Last season he struck out 14.1 batters per nine. Some call his delivery deceiving, which may explain why his ERA in the Florida State League this year was 4.12. Maybe more advanced hitters are catching on. Perhaps his high walk numbers are hurting him. Or maybe the high ERA was just a result of a small sample size, as so often happens with minor league relief pitchers.
• Alonzo Harris (OF)- Harris, once deemed ruined after an aggressive promotion by Omar Minaya went horribly wrong, has re-gained his prospect status with a much-improved approach at the dish over the last few seasons. Promoted too quickly because of his athleticism and raw tools, Harris hit .224/.270/..342 as a 20 year-old, second-year player in Savannah. He was overly-aggressive and struck out over in over 20% of his plate appearances. Since then, he has seen his walk rates rise and strikeout rates fall steadily and now he has a solid approach at the dish. His success in 2011 in Savannah were attributed to him getting used to the league, but the even better walk and strikeout numbers in 2012 with St. Lucie have some people believing that he’s not done yet.

Other Names to Watch

• Cory Mazzoni (RHP)- Mazzoni was the Mets’ second-round pick of the 2011 draft out of NC State. After a little over a year in the minors, it appears that that Mazzoni, with a limited arsenal, is headed to the bullpen. He will start for the forseeable future to get more in-game action, but his 6.5 K/9 last year leave much to be desired.
• Logan Verrett (RHP)- Verrett only made six starts in St. Lucie after coming back from a shoulder strain, but will move up this year anyway. His 7.15 K/BB ratio last year was stellar. The only concern is the lower strikeout rate in the six St. Lucie starts, which fell to 6.1 K/9 from 9.3 in Savannah.

Noah Syndergaard will headline one of the best rotations in the minor leagues.

The roster of this year’s St. Lucie Mets team is packed with some fantastic talent. This year, St. Lucie will showcase some of the finest pitching pitching prospects in the Met system, and even some of the finest in the minor leagues. This year’s team will likely be the most potential-packed of any in the system. Let’s see who will make this season one to watch.

The Big Names

• Noah Syndergaard (RHP) – The hard-throwing right-hander was only the second biggest name in the R.A. Dickey trade this winter, but by no means should he be overlooked. While he may have been overshadowed by Travis d’Arnaud, Syndergaard also has scouts drooling over his potential. In the Midwest League last season (the equivalent of Savannah), Syndergaard tossed 103.2 innings, putting up a 2.60 ERA and a 10.6 K/9 rate. That went along with an above-average 2.7 BB/9 rate, which is also his career minor league average. Syndergaard was ranked the 29th best prospect in baseball by MLB.com this spring and 54th by Baseball America. After d’Arnaud and Zack Wheeler graduate to the big leagues, all eyes will turn to Syndergaard, who thus far has everyone excited about his future.
• Michael Fulmer (RHP, torn meniscus) – Fulmer is one of the many young and promising arms the Mets have in the lower minors. 20 years old, Fulmer had a terrific season last year with Savannah, posting a 2.74 ERA in 21 starts (108.1 innings) while striking out 101 and walking 38. Fulmer was drafted in 2011 from Deer Creek High School in Oklahoma  He was well-regarded before last season, but he put his name towards to top of every prospect guru’s list with a very impressive season. He will miss most of, if not all of the first half of the season with a torn meniscus, but will return some time this summer.
• Luis Mateo (RHP) – Luis Mateo will do something this year that not many pitching prospects in the Mets system do: skip Savannah. Mateo, 23, had a fantastic season for the Cyclones last year, and along with Hansel Robles, will skip A-Ball and go straight to Advanced A-Ball St. Lucie. Mateo put up a 2.45 ERA last season in 12 starts, striking out 10.4 batters per nine innings while walking only 1.1 He has incredible stuff and is someone you will hear a lot from in the near future.
• Domingo Tapia (RHP) – Domingo Tapia’s two-seam fastball may be one of the best pitches in all of the minors. It has heavy sinking action and sits in the mid to upper 90s. He doesn’t have a breaking pitch, and may end up in the bullpen by the time he reaches the majors, but he is nonetheless a very intriguing pitcher. Tapia threw 108.2 innings last season and posted a 3.98 ERA. He slaso struck out 8.4 batters per nine innings (an increase from 5.8 K/9 in 2011) with 2.7 walks.
• Aderlin Rodriguez (3B) – Rodriguez may already have, at age 21, the most power in the entire Mets farm system. Rodriguez hit a meager .221/.265/.372 in 131 games as a 19 year-old in Savannah in 2011, with the only positive being his 17 home runs. Last year, however, repeating the league, Rodriguez started hitting like he never had before. He hit .274/.336/.497 with 16 dingers in only 83 games before earning a promotion to St. Lucie. Looking deeper into his splits from Savannah, you see that although he hit just .233/.309/.473 in 40 games at home at Grayson Stadium, he hit eight home runs. That;s notable considering that Savannah is not only the toughest park in the South Atlantic League to get a hit in, but it is also the most difficult park in the entire minor leagues to hit home runs. If Rodriguez can hit for power there, he can do it anywhere.

The Sleepers

• Jacob deGrom (RHP) – Coming off six so-so outings in Kingsport in 2010 and Tommy John surgery, Jacob deGrom broke out in a big way last year in Savannah. Overall, he made 15 starts there and put up very impressive statistics: 2.51 ERA, 7.8 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9. He then made four starts in St. Lucie, allowing five earned runs in 21.2 innings. A lanky 6’4″, 185 pounds, deGrom has the physical profile that scouts look for in a young pitcher. Watch out for him this year.
• Hansel Robles (RHP) – In a bit of a surprise, the Mets sent Hansel Robles to St. Lucie for the start of the season instead of Savannah, where he was projected to go. Robles, 22, was the ace of the excellent Brooklyn Cyclone pitching staff last season, posting a 1.11 ERA in 72.2 innings to go along with excellent 8.2 K/9 and 1.2 BB/9 rates. 
• T.J. Rivera (2B) – Rivera doesn’t have any tools that stand out in particular, but he has put up very good numbers ar every level he’s played. Although he hasn’t hit for much power, he has hit at least .290 in every league he’s played in. Last season in 128 games between Savannah and St. Lucie, he hit .320/.372/.444.
• Alex Panteliodis (LHP) – A ninth-round draft pick in 2011 out of the University of Florida, Panteliodis put up a 3.64 ERA in 22 starts in Savannah last year in 108.2 innings.

Other Names to Watch

• Chasen Bradford (RHP) – A reliever out of UCF, Bradford posted an excellent 2.47 ERA in Savannah last year in 51 innings, all out of the bullpen. 
• Camden Maron (C) – Maron may be the second-best catcher in the Mets’ system after hitting .300/.403/.408 in Savannah last year. He didn’t hit for much power (five home runs), but his 13% walk rate was very impressive.

Jose Fernandez will make the jump from A-Ball to the majors when he makes his MLB debut against the Mets on Sunday afternoon.

The Mets begin their second series of the season against the new-look Miami Marlins today, in the first game of what will be a three-game set.

The Marlins, for the second offseason in a row, blew up what they had and started over. Last winter was a little different, as the Marlins were the team adding expensive talent. Now, it’s as if they’re begging teams to take any major league caliber player off their roster. The club that had eight players with salaries of at least $5 million now has just one. Their payroll has been sliced in half, from over a hundred million to just fifty, and that’s including the money they paid to other teams to take on highly-paid players. Take that away and their payroll is under $40 million.

The only player of much worth on the Marlins roster is Giancarlo Stanton, who may end up being traded at the deadline as well this year. The 23 year-old put up unbelievable numbers, hitting 37 home runs and putting up a 5.7 WAR rating in only 123 games. He is the one and only threat left in the lineup.

Overall, if some of the newly-acquired prospects don’t pan out immediately, the Marlins could challenge the Astros for the worst record in baseball.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1: Jeremy Hefner (93.2 IP, 76 ERA+, 3.44 K/BB) vs. Alex Sanabia (career: 83.1 IP, 113 ERA+, 2.89 K/BB)

Sanabia was pushed out of the rotation last year, pitching in the minors for the entire year. In 18 Triple-A starts, he posted a 3.93 ERA in 91.2 innings. The 24 year-old only pitched 11 innings in the majors in 2011, and made 12 starts in 2010. He had decent success in 2010, putting up a 3.73 ERA (112 ERA+), 5.8 K/9 rate, and a 2.0 BB.9 rate. His mediocre peripherals, however, tell us that he probably isn’t anything special. Just another future journeyman.

Game 2: Jonathon Niese (2012: 190.1 IP, 113 ERA+, 3.16 K/BB) vs. Ricky Nolasco (2012: 191 IP, 88 ERA+, 2.66 K/BB)

Nolasco is currently the highest-paid player on the Miami roster at over $11 million, but nothing he has done over the past few years indicate that he has earned that salary. Nolasco signed a three-year, $26.5 million extension after the 2010 season, but has been dreadful since. In his first start against the Nationals this week, he gave up two runs on three hits while striking out five in six innings of work.

Game 3: Aaron Laffey (100.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 1.30 K/BB) vs. Jose Fernandez (2012 A/High-A: 134 IP, 1.75 ERA, 4.51 K/BB)

The Marlins are taking a huge risk with Fernandez bringing him up this early. The 20 year-old has no experience in either Double-A or Triple-A and while he had an excellent season in the minors last year, is nowhere near ready for the majors. This has David Clyde written all over it. Fernandez, a righty, was listed as the fifth best prospect in baseball by Baseball America and 7th by MLB.com.

Series News & Notes

• Marlins outfielder Logan Morrison is recovering from knee surgery and was put on the 60-day DL on March 22. He hit .230/.308/.399 with 11 home runs and 15 doubles in 93 games last season.
• Nathan Eovaldi, acquired in the Hanley Ramirez trade last season, is on the DL with shoulder inflammation. He was a top 100 prospect before last season, when he posted a 4.30 ERA with dismal walk and strikeout rates.
• Casey Kotchman is on the disabled list as well with a hamstring injury. He batted .229/.280/.333 in 142 games with Cleveland last season.
• Just looking at fWAR, the players the Marlins lost this winter were worth 18.5 wins last year while their additions totaled just 3.6 wins. Keep in mind this was a 69-win team with those players on the roster for most of the season.

2013 Savannah Roster

Here is unofficial roster for the Savannah Sand Gnats based on players already there for Media Day. That’s as close to official as you can get.

Starting Pitchers

Matthew Bowman
Gabriel Ynoa
Steven Matz
Rainy Lara
Logan Taylor
Matt Koch
Luis Cessa

Relievers

Hunter Carnevale
Julian Hilario
Jake Kuebler
Bret Mitchell
Timothy Peterson
Paul Sewald

Catchers

Kevin Plawecki
Jeffrey Glenn
Nelfi Zapata

Infielders

Jayce Boyd
Chad Zurcher
Phillip Evans
Cole Frenzel
Yucarybert De La Cruz
Jeff Reynolds

Outfielders

Brandon Nimmo
Stefan Sabol
Eudy Pina
Gregory Pron

The Mets will be piggybacking pitchers again in the rotation which explains the seven starters.

2013 Savannah Preview

The 2012 Sand Gnats were a very intriguing team. There were some surprises like Travis Taijeron and Aderlin Rodriguez, as well as some great seasons from big names, such as Michael Fulmer. This year, the team could be even more exciting to watch and follow, as the 2012 draft class begins to rise through the minor league system. We’ll get to see some highly-touted draft picks in their first taste of long-season professional baseball. The other interesting group we’ll see in Savannah is the starting rotation coming up from Brooklyn. Most of the pitching staff, which had a brilliant year last year, will be heading to Savannah this summer, including Hansel Robles, Gabriel Ynoa, and others. Let’s take a look at some of the names to watch this season.

Players To Watch

• Brandon Nimmo (OF) – While Brandon Nimmo‘s batting average from last season doesn’t look great, there were plenty of positive signs from the Mets’ 2011 first-round pick that should have fans pretty excited. At age 19, Nimmo showed unexpected power, slugging 28 extra-base hits in only 69 games, six of those home runs. He was fourth in the league in doubles and .158 ISO (SLG-BA, a good indicator of power) was sixth in the league. He was the only player under 20 years old in the top 20. Nimmo was also very patient at the plate, walking in 14.3 percent of his plate appearances, third in the NYPL. Despite having missed out on a year of high school ball due to injury and playing his first full year of professional ball in a pitcher friendly league (where many of the year’s top college pitchers go), he thrived, which is a great sign for his future.
• Gabriel Ynoa (RHP) – Another star in the 2012 Brooklyn rotation, Ynoa had a great season last year as well, leading the team in innings pitched. He was also fifth in the league in WHIP (0.926). He put up an incredible 6.40 strikeout to walk ratio. Ynoa did all this as one of the youngest pitchers in the league. He already has a solid fastball and an advanced changeup. He could be someone who has another breakout year with Savannah.
• Rainy Lara (RHP) – Lara, another 2012 Cyclone, put up some ridiculous numbers last year in Brooklyn, but didn’t get as much attention as Hansel Robles and others did. In 12 starts, he posted a 2.91 ERA, walked 1.6 batters per nine, but most impressively, struck out 10.2 batters per nine. Among qualified pitchers, that was second only to his teammate Luis Mateo. At 22, some may be skeptical of Lara’s performance and say it was a result of his age, but when you keep in mind that he made the jump from the Gulf Coast League to Brooklyn, his performance last year was impressive.

Other Notables

• Kevin Plawecki (C) – The Mets grabbed Plawecki in the supplementary round out of Purdue in last year’s draft, and for good reason. Plawecki was sent to Brooklyn, where he put up big power numbers. He was fourth in the league in home runs with seven in 216 at-bats. He put up a decent walk rate of 9.9 percent, and put up a .345 On-Base Percentage. Behind Travis d’Arnaud, he is probably the best catching prospect in the system.
• Matt Koch (RHP) – The Mets’ third round draft pick out of the University of Louisville last year pitched mostly out of the Brooklyn bullpen, but was able to make two starts. He was mostly a reliever in college, and projects as one in the future. In 23.1 innings, Koch struck out 19 (7.3 K/9) and walked seven (2.7 BB/9) while allowing 13 earned runs.
• Jayce Boyd (1B) – The Mets picked Boyd, a right-handed hitting first baseman, out of Florida State last June. He went to Brooklyn and showed a little bit of pop, hitting five homers, nine doubles, and a triple in 54 games.

We take our baseball seriously in Savannah.

Yonder Alonso set a Padres rookie record with 39 doubles last season.

Series Preview

The Mets begin their 2013 season against the San Diego Padres, who they will face off in a three-game series at Citi Field. It’s the beginning of a rather easy April schedule for the Mets, whose April opponents posted just a .476 winning percentage last season.

The Padres are in rebuilding mode, but may be a sleeper team this season, even in the ever-more-difficult National League West. They struggled big time on offense, batting just .234 as a team in the first half. Missing Carlos Quentin for the first two months of the year, they didn’t have a big power threat in their lineup. They were 28th in ISO before the All-Star break, while also ranking 29th in wOBA and 26th in wRC+. Their pitching staff, which ranked 12th in ERA for the first half, just couldn’t produce enough to make up for the struggles on offense.

The second half was a different story for San Diego, however, as they turned it around drastically and found themselves playing above .500. Why did they start playing better? Simply put, they were scoring more runs. They went 17-35 in April in May because they were only scoring 3.2 runs per game. With Chase Headley, their only threat, ice cold in the first half, they had no offense. However in the second half, with the infusion of Carlos Quentin back into the lineup, and a historic resurgence by Headley, they scored about 4.6 runs per game. That, combined with their pitching staff holding steady allowed them to go 42-33 in the second half, compared to just 34-53 in the first.

Series Matchups

Game 1:

Jon Niese (190.1 IP , 3.16 K/BB, 113 ERA+) vs. Edinson Volquez (182.2 IP, 1.66 K/BB, 88 ERA+)

Volquez, 28, has had an up-and-down career to say the least. In 2008, he had a sensational year for the Reds in his first full season in the big leagues. He posted an ERA of 3.21 over 32 starts and finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year voting (in any other year, he would have won the award). A few injury-plagued seasons, however, and he ended up in San Diego after being dealt for Mat Latos. He had his best season since 2008, but command issues held him back. He posted a dreadful 5.2 BB/9 rate last year and walked a league-high 105 batters. In the minors, he had never posted high walk numbers, but since that 2008 season, they have been glaringly high.

Game 2:

Matt Harvey (59.1 IP, 2.69 K/BB, 141 ERA+) vs. Clayton Richard (218.2 IP, 2.55 K/BB, 91 ERA+)

Richard had another solid season for the Padres last year, settling in as the steady rock of the rotation at ge 28, and going over the 200 inning mark for the second time in his career. Two things to know about Richard: he doesn’t strike out many batters and he gives up a ton of home runs. He struck out 4.4 batters per nine innings last year, even lower than his career 5.7 K/9 rate. He also gave up a league-high 31 home runs. Keep in mind that he made 14 of his 33 starts at Petco Park, one of the toughest ballparks in the majors for home run hitters.

Game 3:

Dillon Gee (109.2 IP, 3.34 K/BB, 94 ERA+) vs. Eric Stults (99 IP, 2.04 K/BB, 128 ERA+)

Stultz had a very good season for the Padres after jumping into their rotation mid-season. He was claimed off the waiver wire from the White Sox in May, and proved to be a good pickup for San Diego with an impressive second half. He pitched in 18 games for San Diego and made 14 starts, in which he posted a 2.92 ERA. He is another guy who doesn’t strike out many, with a career K/9 rate of 5.0.

Series News & Notes

• The Padres will be without Chase Headley, who is out for a few more weeks. He was the driving force of the Padres’ second half success, hitting .308/.386/.592 with 23 home runs, 11 doubles, and seven stolen bases in only 75 games. He ended up finishing fifth in the NL MVP voting after hitting just .267/.368/.413 with eight home runs in 86 first half games.
• San Diego will also be missing starting second baseman Logan Forsythe, who is out with plantar fasciitis. He hit .273/.343/.390 with six homers, eight stolen bases, and three triples in 91 games.
• Watch out for Luke Gregerson and Huston Street in the back end of the San Diego bullpen. Gregerson finished with a 2.39 ERA in 71.2 innings last season while Street, the primary closer, saved 23 games and had a 1.85 ERA in 39 innings.
• Niese will be the third different starting pitcher in as many years for the Mets, and just the second pitcher other than Johan Santana to start the first game of the regular season since 2007. Santana opened from 2008-10, Mike Pelfrey got the nod in 2011, and Santana pitched Opening Day again last year.
• Padre third base prospect Jedd Gyorko will be making his major league debut. Gyorko was ranked the 50th best prospect in baseball by MLB.com and 71th by Baseball America. He hit .311/.373/.547 with 30 home runs and 28 doubles in 126 games between San Diego’s Double-A and Triple-A affiliates last season.
• After losing their first eight Opening Day contests, the Mets have won 33 of their last 43 Opening Day games…New York took nine straight openers from 1975-1983 to tie a major league record…The Mets have won six of their last seven openers and are 9-4 in their last 13…The Mets shut out Atlanta, 1-0, on Opening Day last year.
• Today is the third time the Mets will host Opening Day at Citi Field…New York is 2-0, winning last year and topping the Marlins, 7-1, in 2010…The Mets are 19-2 in their last 21 Opening Days at home and 19-7 overall when starting the season at home.
• David Wright has at least one hit in every Home Opener since making his first Opening Day roster in 2005…Wright is hitting .375 (12-32) with three home runs and nine RBI on Opening Day…Wright is making his ninth Opening Day start today, tying him for the third-most in team history with Jerry Grote and Howard Johnson…Only Tom Seaver (11) and Bud Harrelson (11) have started more Opening Days in franchise history.

Now that we are just about a week out from Opening Day, let’s take a more detailed look at what the Mets will be up against this season. With the new league format in which there are 15 teams in each league, the Mets will have interleague play spread out throughout the year, starting with the Twins the second week in April. In total, the Mets play 20 interleague games, 19 games against each team in the division, and 66 other games within the National League.

To gauge how difficult the Mets’ schedule is, I compiled the 2012 winning percentages and pythagorean winning percentages (what their record should be based on their runs scored and runs allowed) from the 2012 season, and broke down the results month-by-month.

The Mets will start off the season with a very easy schedule, probably their easiest month of the season. With all the injuries right now, they may not be able to capitalize on the easy opponents early, which would make it very difficult to get above .500 for the first time since 2008. Their April opponents had a .476 winning percentage and .479 pythagorean winning percentage, both significantly worse than any month the rest of the season.

Once May starts, the schedule gets a whole lot tougher. During the month of May, the Mets play some tough teams like the Reds, Cardinals, and White Sox. From then on, with the exception of August, the schedule is very, very tough. August is a bit different, as the Mets get to play the Padres, Royals, and Rockies.

There’s more going on here than just 2012 win-loss record, however. Every season, there are teams that see big changes over the offseason, including some on the Mets schedule. Their 2012 records won’t tell the whole story, so the Mets may have some tougher and some easier stretches than last year’s data predicts:

• St. Louis Cardinals- 7 games: The Cardinals hit their way into the postseason last year with a very short-handed roster compared to their 2011 team, which won the World Series. After losing Albert Pujols and Edwin Jackson to free agency along with Chris Carpenter to injury, the rest of the roster stepped up. After losing a few more guys this past winter, however, it looks like it won’t be possible for the Cardinals to repeat what they did last year. They failed to re-sign Kyle Lohse and lost Rafael Furcal to Tommy John Surgery. Those two alone are worth about 5 fWAR between them. Now their closer Jason Motte is hurt as well, possibly seriously. Now a .500 record seem more likely than playoff baseball.
• Cleveland Indians- 3 games: The Indians were extremely aggressive this winter, spending over $120 million in the free agent market. As Mets fans know, they snatched up Michael Bourn on a four-year deal along with Nick Swisher, Brett Myers, and Mark Reynolds. They also made a big move via the trade market, dealing Shin-Soo Choo and three others in a three-team deal, acquiring Drew Stubbs to complete the outfield, as well as top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer. The Mets only have three games for the Indians this season but what previously looked like a possible three-game sweep for the Mets could now be a sweep for Cleveland.
• New York Yankees- 4 games: The Mets meet the Yankees in late-May with a four-game series split between Citi Field and Yankee Stadium. It seems like for years, Mets fans have been saying hopefully that it would be the year the Yankees are finally too old. Well, this may be the year. Alex Rodriguez looks like he could miss the majority of the season. Mark Teixeira could miss much of it as well. For the first time in a while, they stodd pat for the offseason, which will end up really hurting them this year. They are depleted and the guys they have remaining are injury-prone.
• Miami Marlins- 19 games: The Marlins are a completely different team from a year ago. Going into last year, they had a roster with some very big names. Now, the cupboard is completely bare and the team looks terrible. Just looking at fWAR, the players the Marlins lost this winter were worth 18.5 wins last year while their additions totaled just 3.6 wins. The Marlins lost 93 games last season, but they could be well over 100 losses by the time 2013 is over.
• Philadelphia Phillies- 19 games: This is really a tough one. I could really see the Phillies going either way. They could get healthy and make a run at the playoffs, or they could slip into mediocrity and win less than 75. They are the biggest wild card right now in the NL East. The keys for them will by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Both haven’t been themselves the past few seasons and as they’ve grown older, their power numbers have dissipated along with their health. It also remains to be seen how much their once-great rotation has left with Vance Worley gone and Roy Halladay not pitching like himself.
  

Even with some opponents looking much worse than last season, the Mets will still have to deal with the Nationals and Braves 19 times each, which will be very tough with the improved rosters those two organizations put together. We’ll see how it all plays out. If there’s one thing the Mets have to do, however, if they want any shot at making noise in the Wild Card race, it’s play well early on.

Atchison, 36, has bounced around baseball in his 14-year professional career. He came out of TCU as a starting pitcher in the late ’90s. Drafted by the Mariners, he rose up through the system, but stalled at Triple-A. He was eventually converted to a relief pitcher, and made his debut with the Mariners. Over the next few years, he bounced around, pitching for Seattle, San Francisco, and even played two years in Japan for the Hanshin Tigers in the Nippon Professional Baseball League.

Atchison finally settled down with the Red Sox organization in 2010, becoming a major part of their bullpen. That year, he tossed a career-high 60 innings and posted a 4.50 ERA. He didn’t pitch very well, but got significant time thanks to injury after injury to Red Sox relievers. In 2011, he bounced back and forth between Triple-A Pawtucket and the Boston bullpen. He pitched very well for both teams in a long-man type role, not seeing too much late-game action. With the Red Sox, he posted a 3.26 ERA in 30.1 innings while putting up a 2.64 ERA in 61.1 Triple-A innings.

2012 was by far, the best season of Atchison’s career. Finally a permanent fixture in the bullpen, Atchison spent most of the season as a setup man. He was flexible, however, and was often able to give the team more than one inning, which, if he could do with the Mets, would be immensely helpful considering the health problems in the rotation. He missed two months of the season after he tore his UCL in his right elbow. The put him out from mid-July to late September. He was able to return to the Sox, and finished up the season with 5.1 scoreless innings in five September appearances. Atchison’s overall numbers for the season are outstanding. In 51.1 innings over 47 games, he had a 1.58 ERA, 4.00 K/BB ratio, and only allowed two home runs all season.

Atchison has pitched well thus far in spring action, allowing only two runs on seven hits in 8.2 total innings, striking out four and walking two. He has almost guaranteed himself a spot on the Opening Day roster. It’s still unclear who will have what role in the bullpen, but my guess is Atchison will have the same role he had last year in Boston. The key for Atchison has always been keeping the ball down and preventing home runs. That’s what has made him so successful over the past two seasons. It’s unlikely that he will pitch as well as he did last year, but if he can stay healthy and keep the ball down, he will have a very solid season for the Mets.

2013 Projection:

60 IP, 2.95 ERA, 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.1 WAR

The 28 year-old right-hander will be getting his first long-term shot at the closer role. He has been given some time in August and September over the last few years in the role, but he has never been “the guy” from the get go. This will be his last real opportunity to prove that he is more than a hard-throwing middle-innings relief pitcher.

Parnell is coming off the best season of his career, one that saw him drop his ERA to a career-best 2.49 mark in 68.2 innings pitched, a heavier workload than he has had to deal with in years past. His strikeout rate went down from 9.7 K/9 in 2011 to 8.0 last year. That’s still above league average, and slightly below his career average. However, he dropped his walk rate from a sub-par 4.1 BB/9 to a very solid 2.6 rate.

The key for Parnell has always been being a pitcher rather than just a thrower. Last season, he changed speeds on his fastball much more effectively than before and was finally able to find a breaking pitch that worked for him. Those two things were the key to his success last season, and we’ve only seen more of that in the spring. His control issues seem to be a thing of the past as well, and Parnell is much more consistent with his command than we have ever seen from him.

There is one issue that has gone unanswered from Parnell, however, and it is the most important one: can he handle the closer role? While he hasn’t been put in the spot long-term ever in his career, he has thus far struggled in those situations. His numbers are significantly worse in save situations over his career. In 87 save situations, he has a 4.54 ERA with 31 walks in 73.1 innings. That’s compared to his 2.45 ERA and much lower walk rate in 146.2 innings in non-save situations. Parnell thus far, has shown that mentally, he cannot handle the ninth inning role. The pressure has been a little too much for him, and quite frankly, it has shown in some of his post-game comments after games.

While a full spring of preparations for becoming a closer will help him a little bit, it is hard to predict how Parnell will adjust mentally to the new role. The switch may seem insignificant to some pitchers, but others sometimes wilt under the pressure. He has improved as a pitcher over the past few seasons, especially last season, so I don’t think he will pitch as badly as his career stats in save situations would suggest, but until I see proof that he can perform under the pressure in the ninth, I don’t think Parnell can reproduce last year’s excellent statistics.

2013 Projection:

3.70 ERA, 65 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.5 WAR

Bill James

The popularity of the statistic among fans soared after Bill James and numerous others lobbied for it in the 1980s and 1990s. THere reasoning is this: a player making an out drastically reduces a team’s odds of scoring a run. They also argued that not making an out increases your team’s chances of scoring. In other words, they said getting on base is the most sure-fire way to score runs.

A large portion of the Met fanbase has been enraged by Sandy Alderson (a well-documented supporter of OBP) and his use of advanced statistics, especially when it comes to patience at the plate, walk rate, and on-base percentage. Through his comments in the media, he has lobbied numerous times for the stat, despite the displeasure of so many fans. That led me to conduct a little research on the effectiveness of the stat.

For my sample, I used every team’s stats over the last ten seasons (2003-2012). It’s a sample size of 300 different teams, which I felt would be enough to give an accurate measure of how OBP correlates to runs scored. Every little dot on the graph is one team, such as the 2007 Diamondbacks.

First, I wanted to look at something simple, like home runs. Teams with more power tend to score more runs, or so it is thought. Over the past ten years, the results were rather surprising.

There clearly is some type of correlation between home runs and runs scored, but it is much weaker than I thought it would be. Obviously there is a correlation because frankly, if you’re hitting 240 home runs in a season, you are going to score a ton of runs. However there are many cases in which teams have not followed this trend. So home runs do not directly correlate to runs scored, although they influence it.

Next, I wanted to see how this compares to On-Base Percentage, and whether it has a stronger effect on the number of runs a team scores.

Here, of course, you can see a very clear correlation. Teams that get on base more, teams who have batters that make outs less are more successful, and score more runs. However, you can obviously see that it is no perfect indicator of runs scored. Why is that so? Looking at last year’s rankings for both OBP and team runs scored, I saw that they were similar, but not in the same order.

The key thing to remember about On-Base Percentage is that it is a very rudimentary statistic. It has a very basic formula, and doesn’t take into account the values of the ways a player can get on base. Slugging percentage attempts to, but fails to put an accurate vale on each way someone can reach base. Is a double really worth twice as much to a team as a single? Is a walk worth three times less to a team than a triple? Over 100 years of baseball tells us that is not the case. That’s where wOBA, or weighted On-Base Average, comes in. It assigns a value to each way a hitter reaches base. How can they just choose those values? Doesn’t that make the stat arbitrary? The coefficients of walks, singles, doubles, etc. are based off the added probability of a run being scored. It’s essentially a bulked-up version of On-Base Percentage, and is even more effective at predicting runs scored.

I took the same date from earlier, the 2003 to 2012 seasons, and applied the same method I used for home runs and On-Base Percentage, only replacing it with wOBA.

Even a metric as well-developed as wOBA has its flaws, but it may be the most accurate in determining how many runs a team will score. There are still imperfections, but it’s about as close as we can get right now. Opponent defense, the offense’s ability to steal bases, managerial moves, and more all tweak the results a bit. This is no super-stat. There are none. But they are very effective.

There are always going to be exceptions to the rule, especially in a sport as complicated as baseball, but On-Base Percentage and more complex versions of it (wOBA) clearly correlate to runs scored, and are not by any means, meaningless statistics.