When logging on to Twitter, you’ll often notice the most popular topics bandied about are a daily redundancy of Justin Bieber, a sporting event or athlete that is making news, and middle-schoolers telling you what not to do on a first date. However, every once in a while a hash tag like #MetsBandNames or #MetsYouveForgottenAbout will sneak into the “Trending Topics” column. When that happens, you can be sure it is not the work of “Beliebers” or 13-year-old dating experts. Instead, the thanks should go to a large group of Mets fans enjoying just another day in the community of the Mets Twitter world, or as they prefer to call it: #MetsTwitter.

Mets fans have always been known to be loud in voicing their support (or disgust) for the team. Though the New York Mets official Twitter feed has just over 177,000 fans, ranking them 13th out of the 30 Major League Baseball team accounts, the Mets fans seem to love not only tweeting about their team, but sharing their thoughts with fellow fans and creating discussions and friendships.

“I’m happy to say that I have made a lot of friends through Twitter,” stated Matthew Falkenbury (@dailystache), founder of the popular Mets blog The Daily Stache. “Whether it is fellow bloggers or just fans of the team, it is great to meet people who love the Mets as much as I do.”

To show the rising popularity of #MetsTwitter, Falkenbury started doing a ”Mets Twitter Recap” on his site. The feature is a basic summary of that night’s Met game, incorporating jokes and insight, all through the tweets of Mets fans.

“I saw the Sports Illustrated College Football blog, Campus Union, use the same idea for every bowl game, and I thought it would work with Mets games because of the great volume of Mets fans that tweet during the games,” Falkenury explained, also noting that viewership of the site has doubled with every Twitter recap. “It has been a great addition to the site.”

Even when there is no game in progress, #MetsTwitter is never at a loss for ideas.

“The one thing that I’ve noticed most about Mets fans on Twitter is that everyone cares about the team winning, but at the same time, Mets fans have the ability to make fun of their own team without any shame,” noted Tyler Siminski (@tysim19), a Mets tweeter and contributing writer for the site.

When an article came out last year reporting the Mets disappointment in Ike Davis’s partying habits, the #DrunkIke meme quickly became a running joke that still holds strong today. ESPN’s Karl Ravech will forever live in #MetsTwitter infamy after his incorrect hunch of “not buying that Phillies are dead” was tweeted late last year. Even Jordany Valdespin (or JV1, as #MetsTwitter refers to him as) has become a cult hero, thanks to his cocky attitude and self-portraits.

“The Mets have been nothing short of entertaining, on and off the field,” said Siminski.

Meredith Perri (@MeredithPerri) grew up in a Mets household in downstate New York, so she was well aware of the passion of Mets fans before joining MetsBlog.com as an intern last summer. But once her first post hit the internet, she got to experience first-hand how passionate the fans can be on social media.

“I definitely got a lot more tweets and followers,” she said, pointing out that she went from 100 followers to over 400 over the course of her internship. “I tweet about a number of things, but if you go through the people who follow me on Twitter, the majority are Mets fans.”

An aspiring journalism student at Boston University, Perri certainly appreciated the acknowledgement, and admitted it boosted her confidence.

“It felt like people were actually reading my work,” she said. “It was kind of like: ‘Okay, I can do this.’”

Of course, as a result of going to school in Boston, Perri knows all about raving sports fans. While she has grown used to the surrounding Red Sox, Celtics, Patriots, and Bruins fans, she says about Mets fans: “They are definitely very present and passionate on Twitter.”

Somewhat surprisingly, that passion has ceased to soften, despite the Mets woes over the last few years. While #MetsTwitter is certainly full of pessimists who sometimes make it seem as though they are rooting for the team to fail, thus causing some confrontation, the varying differences of opinions are what drives it to continually grow.

“I think that it is like having a gathering of Mets fans at a bar or a party that surrounds the watching of the game,” Falkenbury said. “People talk about the game. What has gone right, what has gone wrong. They make jokes, they fight, they live and die with the team and do it within 140 characters at a time.”

Still, Siminski feels it is the more jovial Mets fans who bring the spirit of a community.

“I think the main reason that Mets Twitter has become so popular is the fact that the team has gone through so many hardships the past few years. Everyone wants to be around once this team takes the next step.”

Eventually, that day will come. But for now, #MetsTwitter can take solace in the fact that they already have taken that next step, and it only looks to be getting bigger.

Thoughts from Joe D.

I thought it was uncanny that when Adam wrote this a few days ago, the next morning on Friday, there was an article in the New York Times by Richard Sandomir about basically the same exact subject that Adam has so cleverly covered here.

In an articled entitled, For Mets Fans, Even 140 Characters Can Be Too Many, I was pleasantly surprised to find our site mentioned in the very first sentence:

Those who use Twitter to comment about the Mets – from @MetsMerized and @kranepool to @TheHappyRecap and @metspolice — usually have plenty to say.

Rich is right. Many of us do have plenty to say about the Mets on Twitter even with the challenges of a 140 character limit. But that only breeds new and creative forms of sharing a message or opinion, and that’s the fun of it. Twitter has become another way to revel with other Met fans during a win, or share our misery after a loss. I absolutely love it.

Those who embrace the technology and the social aspects of Twitter such as Adam, me, and thousands of other Mets fans, use the social monolith to stay connected with the team, the players, and all the beat writers, while interacting with other followers and friends. The common bond that brings all of us together are those amazing New York Mets.

Last month we finally eclipsed 5,000 followers on @Metsmerized and we’re now at 5,232 after gaining 37 new followers this week. Go ahead and click that banner and join the revolution… You know you want to!

Here are some other suggestions on who to follow:

@metsjetsnets88, @metstradamus, @Erica_L_Sweeney, @Lets86it, @EricBien, @citycynic, @johnstrubel, @DickYoungsGhost, @WexlerRules, @JoyChica, @MFS_71, Mets_Nation.

AHHHHHHH! THERE’S A TWITTER ON MY HEAD!!!

Updated by Joe D. on 4/20

What a game it was for Lucas Duda last night in the Mets 7-1 win against the Nationals. Duda had his best game ever as a Met going 2-for-3 with hit two home runs and a walk . The hulking Mets left fielder is now batting .308 for the season with five home runs and eight RBI in 14 games. Duda’s patience has paid off as Adam Rossi said it would in the post below three days ago.

Duda in now second in the Major Leagues with 12 walks, a .491 On-Base Percentage and a staggering 1.234 OPS. That’s absolutely incredible.

According to FanGraphs, Duda is swinging at only 12.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone so far this season, which again points out much of what Adam discussed in his analysis below. It’s definitely worth a second read…

Original Post April 17, 2012

Heading into the 2013, no Met has more pressure on him than Lucas Duda. For the past four years, Duda has shown flashes of power that could make him a good middle-of-the-order hitter. He has also provided a lot of head-scratching moments, somewhat unintentionally comical, both at the plate and in the field.

We know one thing is certain with Duda: he is not going to win ballgames with his defense. Nevertheless, if he can put up the power numbers that he’s been teasing everybody with this season, he should become a valuable player. All that teasing has caused Sandy Alderson and rest of this Mets front office to be very patient with Duda, and now he may finally be rewarding them for that patience because of…well…his patience.

Duda Doesn’t Chase

One could look at Lucas Duda’s stats through 13 games, see his .469 OBP, and easily realize Duda has been taking a lot of walks so far (11 walks in 49 plate appearances, to be exact). But that does not tell us much about whether or not he can sustain anything throughout the season. The following stat, however, is encouraging: 14.1% O-Swing % — in other words, Duda has only swung at 14.1% of pitches outside the strike zone. What’s even more encouraging is the fact that his O-Swing % has been steadily improving. In 2011, his O-Swing % was 29.8%, followed by 25.3% in 2012. I don’t expect his percentage to remain this low throughout the whole season, but if he can keep it under 25%, that would be significant. To understand how significant, let’s look at Joey Votto, who is arguably the most patient hitter in baseball. His career O-Swing % is 25.3%. Lucas Duda is not going to be Joey Votto, but he can at least provide part of what makes Votto such a valuable player.

With Patience Comes Power 

Obviously taking pitches helps a player with more than just his walk rate. The more pitches a batter sees, the more knowledge he gains about what the pitcher is throwing. More importantly, the more bad pitches a batter takes, the more he forces a pitcher to throw him strikes, which means the more opportunities he will get to hit a mistake and hit it hard. This has also benefited Duda early on in the season. Pitchers have thrown Duda a first pitch strike only 44.9% of the time this season, which means he has been starting off his at-bats in a 1-0 count 55% of the time. On top of that, pitchers have thrown him pitches in the strike zone 44.1% of the time, compared to 37.6% last year. What that tells me is that pitchers are starting to realize Duda won’t chase balls out of the zone, so they are being forced to throw him more strikes. As a result, Duda has improved his chances of getting a ball in the zone by 7% so far. And when you start throwing a lot of strikes to a player with Duda’s power, it’s going to result in a lot of hard hit balls.

Making Contact 

Of course, the only way Duda can make use of all the strikes he’s seeing is by making contact with the ball. This has been a problem with Duda throughout his young career, but there are once again early signs that show improvement. While he still has a pretty high strikeout rate this season (22.4%), it has been better than last year (26.1%). Also, his swing-and-miss percentage has improved by nearly 2% (7% this season, compared to 9.1% in 2012). Some of that may have to do with the fact that he isn’t swinging as much as he has in the past. Along with not swinging at pitches out of the zone, Duda also has not been swinging at as many pitches in the zone. After swinging at 64.2% of strikes in 2011 and 62.5% last year, Duda has only swung at 50% of strikes that have been thrown to him this year. That may not be a terrible thing though, since many times pitchers make good pitches that a hitter can’t do much with, even if it is a strike, and they are better off letting it go. On top of that, by not swinging as much, Duda has improved his chances of making contact when he does swing. And improving your chances can only help bring success.

It is still way too early to claim somebody a breakout player or a bust, but it is not too early to look at early season trends and try to figure out what could happen. If the Mets are going to have any success this season, there’s a good chance Lucas Duda will be a part of that. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence  then, that both he and the Mets are off to a good start.

(Note: All stats mentioned in this post are courtesy of Fangraphs)

The biggest hurdle preventing the Mets from finishing in third place are these guys.

The Major League Baseball season is almost under way, and you know what that means: prediction time! Alas, for Mets fans it seems like most predictions are not so favorable for our loveable Amazin’s, but pay no mind to those Negative Nancy’s. I’m here to give you some good news: the Mets are a decent team. Am I being subjective? Maybe a little, but that doesn’t mean I am wrong. I can very confidently say the Mets will not finish in last place, thanks to the always dependable Miami Marlins. However, I’m not going to stop there and say the Mets are destined for a fourth place finish. In fact, I think that by the time October rolls around and the season is over, the final standings showing will show the words “New York” next to the number 3 in the National League East. Not only that, but I think we will see their record being closer to the .500 mark than many are expecting. Here are a few reasons why:

1. The Phillies are old and declining

Everybody in the baseball world seems to have made it a foregone conclusion that the Phillies will finish in third place, being closer to the Braves and the Nationals than the Mets and the Marlins. I really don’t see it. I will acknowledge that Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee are two of the best pitchers in baseball, and Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers of this era. However, Halladay is up there in age (he’ll be 36 in May) and dealt with injuries last year. Even when he was pitching, he wasn’t too impressive. His velocity has dropped significantly this spring and it makes me wonder if he may not be that great anymore. Behind him, the Phillies have Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan. I’m pretty sure that combination is not going to produce many W’s.

On the flip side, let’s look at the Phillies biggest offensive threats:

Chase Utley – 34 years old, 83 games played in 2012.

Ryan Howard – 33 years old, 71 games played in 2012 producing a -1 WAR. (Fangraphs)

Jimmy Rollins – 34 years old, OPS the last three years: .694 (2010), .736 (2011), .743 (2012).

Then we get into the bats surrounding them and you realize there’s not much there either. For all the talk of how horrendous the Mets outfield is, the Phillies doesn’t look much better. Dominic Brown may have potential, and he had a great spring, but until he proves he can do it throughout 162 meaningful games, he’s still a question mark. Ben Revere can catch the ball and run like the wind, but he has 0 career home runs in over 1,000 at bats. Even Rey Ordonez thinks that’s pathetic. Laugh all you want about Lucas Duda, Colin Cowgill, and Marlon Byrd, but you cannot look at both outfields and tell me one has a significant advantage over the other.

2. Matt Harvey and Jon Niese

I am very appreciative of Johan Santana and everything he did for the Mets when he was healthy. News of his latest injury was very disappointing. That being said, I was not surprised at all by the news, and I don’t think it will have as much of an impact on the team as others do. I was completely prepared to have a rotation without Santana even before the news broke last night. Even if he was going to pitch this year, he is no longer the Johan Santana of old. This team has two new pitchers that are ready to anchor the rotation in Niese and Harvey. Let’s play the always popular comparison game. Here are some 2012 stats from two pitchers:

Pitcher A: 30 starts, 188 innings pitched, 6.77 K/9, 3.75 FIP, 4.18 xFIP, 2.9 WAR (Fangraphs)

Pitcher B: 30 starts, 190.1 innings pitched, 7.33 K/9, 3.80 FIP, 3.64 xFIP, 2.3 WAR (Fangraphs)

“Pitcher A” is Jered Weaver, who finished third in the AL Cy Young vote. “Pitcher B” is Jon Niese.

As we enter 2013, ZiPS projects Niese to improve on last year and finish with a WAR of 3.1, while it has Harvey finishing his first full season with a WAR of 2.5. That sounds like a pretty good 1-2 combination to me.

3. Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud

I will never understand why people will harp on an Opening Day roster as if it is the definitive way to define how your team is going to look throughout the season. At some point this year, barring any injuries, you are going to see Wheeler and d’Arnaud playing for this team. Both will make the team immediately better based on the talent they have. I don’t think it’s fair to expect them to have a Mike Trout-like impact, but with the way the Mets are handling them it’s assured that neither will come up until they are ready for the big leagues.

It’s also worth noting that, currently, the Mets are significantly better at the catching position this year. According to Fangraphs, the Josh Thole-Mike Nickeas combo produced a -0.8 WAR last season and both of them are starting 2013 in AAA. That alone makes John Buck’s measly 1.0 WAR look enticing.

I’m not going to sit here and tell you the Mets are going to win the National League East, but let’s look at two facts: the Marlins are awful and the Phillies have more bad omens than good. For those reasons, among the others I just mentioned, I think it is very feasible that the Mets will finish in third place this season. That may not be the loftiest of goals, but since the advent of two wild card teams it should be enough to keep things interesting for most of the season, since shooting for third place no longer means no chance at the playoffs.

This is Jamie Hoffmann. You don’t know who he is. That might change this year. (Photo courtesy of MLB.com)

On Sunday, in the top of the second inning of a Spring Training game against the Houston Astros, Jamie Hoffmann hit a solo home run to give the Mets a 1-0 lead. Hoffmann, who was starting the game in left field, is one of the handful of “throw up against a wall and hope it sticks” outfielders that the Mets have brought in to compete for a spot in the team’s outfield this season.

Terry Collins mentioned him in his first press conference of the year as someone who he was interested to get a look at. But who exactly is Jamie Hoffmann? More importantly, is he one of the guys who might actually stick to the wall?

Hoffman is a former Dodgers prospect who has been toiling in the Minor Leagues since 2006. He had a brief cup of coffee with Los Angeles in 2009 and 2011, but spent last season in the Baltimore Orioles system, playing for the Norfolk Tides (AAA). While his Minor League stats won’t “wow” anybody, Hoffmann did manage to hit 11 home runs in 110 games last year. Though he hit only .254, his on-base percentage was a respectable .347. Also, Hoffmann posted a .341 wOBA (Weighted On Base Average) and 111 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created per plate appearance), according to Fangraphs.

In 2011, while playing for AAA Albuquerque (Dodgers), Hoffmann slugged 22 home runs in 133 games, while batting .295 with an .850 OPS, .367 wOBA, and 107 wRC+ (also according to Fangraphs). These numbers were posted in the Pacific Coast League and are most likely inflated, but there are signs there that he can be a productive bottom of the order power bat.

Reliever Scott Rice, and outfielders Andrew Brown and Jamie Hoffmann look on as the Mets play the Nationals in Grapefruit League action. (US Presswire)

At 28, he’s too old to be considered a prospect anymore, but that’s not to say he can’t make it as a big leaguer. The Dodgers had another player in their farm system who just got his first last year: 31-year-old A.J. Ellis. All Ellis did was post a .373 OBP, .341 wOBA and 118 wRC+ in 130 games, good for a 4.1 WAR (Again, from Fangraphs).

While he may not be the answer everybody is expecting. He should have a good chance to open some eyes this spring. Not only do the Mets need outfielders, they need right-handed hitting power hitters, which is what Hoffmann is. One thing is for sure, he is going to get an opportunity.

My grandfather raised me to be a Mets fan. Actually, “raised” is too tame of a word. My grandfather brainwashed me to become a Mets fan from the time I was a baby. If you go through old pictures of me, you are bound to find a few of toddler-Adam wearing a cute little Mets onesie or a silly over-sized Mets cap.

I remember taking bus trips with my grandfather’s church down to Shea Stadium in the early-90’s when I was a little kid. I remember only a few details about the games from my youthful mind: the first was a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, when everyone in the stadium seemed to hate a guy with the last name “Strawberry.” I couldn’t understand why. Strawberries were one of my favorite fruits.

The following year was the infamous Statue of Liberty game, when our bus driver got lost and we wound up passing the Statue of Liberty about three times before finally arriving in the third inning of a game against the San Francisco Giants. Of course, we were greeted in the fifth inning by a torrential downpour and wound up having to go home. Finally, there was a game in 1996 against the Houston Astros. The forecast called for rain all day, but the bus driver was insistent that the game was still on. We took the three hour bus drive down from Albany to Shea, only to learn that the game had been postponed, then made the three hour trip back home. That was when we decided to stop taking bus trips.

It’s fitting that my introduction to the Mets involved many of the characteristics that are associated with being a fan: confusion, frustration, and disappointment. Still, I was hooked. I fell in love with baseball as a 9-year-old, which is when I first learning how to actually play the game. Of course, the Mets were the only baseball team I was associated with growing up, so I soon fell in love with them too. I remember staying home sick from school on Opening Day 1996, and watching the Cardinals vs. Mets. The Cardinals jumped to a 6-0 lead, but the Mets rallied to win 7-6. The only play I remember from that game was Rey Ordonez gunning a runner out at the plate with a perfect throw from shallow left field, thanks to a horrific relay throw by Bernard Gilkey.

That was my introduction to the thrill of it all. It was the first full baseball game I ever watched, and it soon became a part of my life. My father was (and still is) a Yankees fan, but never to a point where he had to watch the Yankees. In other words, he was not like me. Soon, it became a nightly routine – my Mom would go to her room and watch Friends or Everybody Loves Raymond, while my Dad and I would sit in the living room and watch the Mets for an hour before I went to bed. When I woke up, my Dad greeted me not with “Good morning,” but with “The Mets lost” or “The Mets won.” As you would expect, I quickly got accustomed to hearing bad news.

The more I watched them, the more I learned. I learned about the history of the game, as well as the history of the team. The stories of the Miracle Mets of ’69 and the Amazin’ 1986 team were fairy tales to me. I wrote a five-page report in 4th grade about the 1986 World Series, and the moral was to never give up. But while I loved hearing about the past, I was even more entrenched in the present.

Jose Vizcaino was my first favorite player. I remember the day he and Jeff Kent got traded for Carlos Baerga and Alvaro Espinoza, I cried. I quickly moved on though. The following year, I was introduced to John Olerud. Soon, I was playing first base in Little League and emulating my stance after him. Once he left, Robin Ventura was my guy.

Every Mets fan loved Mike Piazza. I didn’t want to be like every Mets fan though, I wanted to be unique. Ventura always seemed to come through in the clutch, and he was one of the few names I knew outside of the Mets when I first started watching the game. Four became my favorite number. I made sure to use it in my e-mail address and my AIM screen name. I wore it for CYO basketball, and was able to wear it on my high school baseball team. When filling out my application for Siena College, the essay portion required me to write about an incident that taught me about the ups and downs of life – I wrote about Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, better known as “The Grand Slam-Single Game.” I got accepted.

Being a Mets fan has never been about expecting greatness, unfortunately. Instead, it’s always been about rooting for the underdog and holding out hope. It isn’t ideal, nor is it very satisfying, but when success does actually occur it makes it that much more enjoyable. Other teams have names like Babe Ruth, Willy Mays, and Albert Pujols to celebrate as postseason heroes. The Mets have Ron Swoboda, Mookie Wilson, and Todd Pratt. That is exactly what makes being a Mets fan so fun.

As we enter the 2013 season, some Mets fans see ineptitude. They look in the outfield and see Larry, Moe, and Curly. They look at the R.A. Dickey trade as a slap in the face. That’s not how I’ve been accustomed to looking at things. My experience as a Mets fan has given me a different interpretation. I look in the outfield and see guys that will give 100% to make a name for themselves as Major League players. I look at the starting rotation and see young talent. I look at the infield and see a core that can lead the team to success now and in the future. I look in the farm system and see guys that will only add to that success. Come the All-Star Break I could be totally wrong about everything, but that’s not going to change my opinion on one thing – I’m a Mets fan, and I will always believe.

David Wright is the Mets top fantasy target this spring, but will Ike Davis close the gap between the two?

It’s that time of year again. Football is over and every Major League team is loading their trucks and heading to Arizona or Florida for Spring Training, which means it’s time to start preparing for fantasy baseball! Whether you will be taking part in a standard league, auction league, dynasty league, or even one of our own MMO Fantasy Baseball leagues, it is vital to have as much information you can on every player, from the perennial All-Stars to the up and coming prospects.

Though it is not advised to draft with your heart in fantasy sports, I think we can all agree it’s extra satisfying when we have a player or two from our favorite team that makes a big impact on our fantasy team. With that in mind, I thought I’d take a look at the Mets and some of their own players who may have an impact on the 2013 fantasy season. Here are my top five rankings:

1. David Wright, 3B – No surprise here. If it weren’t for Miguel Cabrera, Wright would have been the top third baseman in fantasy last year. Though 2012 was a career year for Wright, and I do expect some regression, he is still a top five player at a position that’s not very deep. He’s a solid late first round-early/mid second round pick.

Adam’s Projected Stats: .302 Avg., 23 HR, 89 RBI, 90 R, 15 SB, .880 OPS

2. Ike Davis, 1B – There’s no way Davis can be worse than he was the first half of last year. But even after hitting just .201 before the All-Star break, Davis still managed to hit 12 home runs. I wouldn’t be so bullish as to target him as an early round pick in standard leagues, but if you’re looking for a cheap first base option, or home runs from your utility spot, Davis could be a steal.

Adam’s Projected Stats: .255 Avg., 28 HR, 94 RBI, 70 R, 0 SB, .830 OPS 

3. Travis d’Arnaud, C – Yes, I’m going there. d’Arnaud will probably start the year in AAA, but I fully expect him to be with the Mets by June at the latest, and hitting in the 5th spot by the end of July. The catching position is very thin in fantasy, and snagging a player with d’Arnaud’s potential at a premium position in the later rounds is what wins you championships. You’ll need to use a roster spot on a stop-gap until d’Arnaud comes up (think someone like Ryan Hanigan), but the reward will be well worth the risk, especially if you are in a dynasty league.

Adam’s Projected Stats: .262 Avg., 12 HR, 53 RBI, 40 R, 0 SB, .810 OPS  

4. Daniel Murphy, 2B – Positional scarcity is an important theme in fantasy baseball. In real life, the argument can go on forever about whether or not Murphy is a true second baseman. But in fantasy, the only time defense matters is in terms of positional eligibility. And when you compare Murphy’s offensive numbers to the rest of the second basemen in the league, you find a player with a lot of value at the position. Among second basemen in 2012, Murphy ranked 4th in batting average (.291), 10th in on-base percentage (.332), 9th in slugging (.403), and 9th in OPS (.735). He also snuck in 10 stolen bases, which are always a nice bonus from a player you aren’t necessarily drafting for steals. I think Murphy could be a nice back-up option, or cheap utility option in both standard and dynasty leagues.

Adam’s Projected Stats: .286 Avg., 9 HR, 68 RBI, 70 R, 8 SB, .746 OPS 

5. Matt Harvey, SP – This was a toss-up between Harvey or Jonathon Niese for me, but Harvey’s upside is too good not to put him on this list. I do expect some regression, especially in his K/9 rate, now that the league has “the book” on him. I also expect him to make adjustments along the way and have a solid first full season. I’ve never been a big fan of drafting pitching early in fantasy, since the position is so deep, so unless you are in a dynasty league, I wouldn’t draft him before the last six or seven rounds. But keep in mind, you have a decent chance at getting solid #2/3 SP-type numbers from a guy who will most likely be your 5th or 6th pitcher.

Adam’s Projected Stats: 180 IP, 12 W, 3.42 ERA, 185 K, 1.28 WHIP  

Other Mets players who could have solid fantasy implications:

Jonathon Niese (Adam’s Projected Stats: 196 IP, 15 W, 3.50 ERA, 176 K, 1.20 WHIP)

Zack Wheeler (Adam’s Projected Stats: 70 IP, 4 W, 3.83 ERA, 65 K, 1.35 WHIP)

Bobby Parnell (Adam’s Projected Stats: 73 IP, 80 K, 10 SV, 23 HLD, 2.36 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

With Spring Training only a month away (Huzzah!), and little movement on the part of the Mets front office, it is looking more and more like the Mets will mix and match their outfield with a bunch of ragtag journeymen and hope for the best.

Before I go any further, let me make it perfectly clear that this is clearly not an ideal situation and I am grasping at straws with this post. But I do think this may be able work. Call me an optimist, call me an idiot, call me crazy – you’re probably right on all accounts. However, it is what it is, and when you dig into the numbers you’ll find that maybe all hope is not lost after all.

2012 MLB Outfields and the Mets

Before we get into the current situation, let’s take a look back and see how Major League outfields performed as a whole. In 2012, the Major League averages for all three outfield positions were as follows:

Left Fielders: 619 AB – .260 Average, .756 OPS

Center Fielders: 631 AB – .265 Average, .748 OPS

Right Fielders: 623 AB – .262 Average, .761 OPS

Now let’s look and see how the 2012 Mets outfielders fared:

Left Fielders: 607 AB – .222 Average, .661 OPS

Center Fielders: 596 AB – .247 Average, .711 OPS

Right Fielders: 601 AB – .245 Average, .715 OPS

Oof — that’s rough, though not surprising to anybody who followed the Mets on a regular basis like all of us. On the bright side though, it can’t get much worse! And maybe…just maaaybe…it might even get better. Let’s now look ahead to 2013 and see what we have to work with.

Left Field 

All indications are that Lucas Duda will be the starting left fielder for the Metsies in 2013. After some high (and probably unfair) expectations last year, Duda disappointed, hitting only .239 with a .718 OPS. He did, however, manage to hit 15 home runs, and while his batting average and OPS were well below the league average for left fielders last year, they were an upgrade over 2012 Mets left fielders. The problem – and you’ll see this is a problem for all three positions I’m going to cover – is Duda only had 401 at-bats last season, almost 200 less than the league average. It’s hard to say if his numbers would have gotten better or worse with an extra 200 at-bats, though to due his experience and the fact that he seemed to perform a little better after getting recalled from the Minor Leagues late in the year, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume his numbers would at least stay relatively similar.

The X-factor in all of this is Scott Hairston. If Hairston were to re-sign with the Mets, they could use him in a platoon with Duda in left field. Let’s say they do just that.  Here is a look at Duda vs. right-handed pitching last year and Hairston vs. left-handed pitching last year, to which I then combined for an average among the two:

2012 Lucas Duda vs. RHP: 267 AB – .240 Average, .745 OPS

2012 Scott Hairston vs. LHP: 189 AB – .286 Average, .867 OPS

Total: 456 AB – .263 Average, .806 OPS

While the batting average is just about on par with the league average, the OPS is a very nice upgrade. While it might dip a little bit with an additional 150 at-bats or so, I don’t think it would be significant enough to drop below the league average. Together, Duda and Hairston combined could make for a pretty nice left-fielder. Defensively they will probably be atrocious, but at least they have the ability to do some damage with the bat to make up for it.

Center Field

This is where I really start to get ridiculous. According to MLB Depth Charts, which has become my new obsession, the Mets will most likely go with a platoon in center field of Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Collin Cowgill. Nieuwenhuis showed some potential when he was first called-up last year, but eventually it all caught up to him and he was nothing more than a replacement-level player for the rest of his time on the Mets. Cowgill didn’t get much of a chance with the Oakland A’s in 2012, and was probably going to get even less of a chance this year, due to their crowded outfield. So, as we did with Duda and Hairston, here’s what the combination of Kirk and Collin might have looked like last year:

2012 Kirk Nieuwenhuis vs. RHP: 221 AB – .271 Average, .740 OPS

2012 Collin Cowgill vs. LHP: 44 AB – .318 Average, .844 OPS

Total: 265 AB – .295 Average, .792 OPS

Again, a very solid combo and well above league average. But also only 265 at-bats. That’s not much of a sample size at all, especially when you’re comparing it to an average of 600+ at-bats. That being said, even if Cowenhuis (or Nieuwengill? Or maybe neither…) regress to the mean, that mean is still a .265 batting average and .748 OPS. I don’t think that’d be too much of a shock if that happened, looking at this tiny sample size.

Right Field

Rounding out the outfield, MLB Depth Carts says the Mets will go with a platoon of Mike Baxter – the little gentleman that he is – and someone called Andrew Brown. I believe he gave me a free oil change one time. In all seriousness, apparently Brown had a cup of coffee with the Rockies last year, so we do have a few at-bats to look at. They look like this:

2012 Mike Baxter vs. RHP: 160 AB – .288 Average, .836 OPS

2012 Andrew Brown vs. LHP: 40 AB – .275 Average, .775 OPS

Total: 200 AB – .282 Average, .806 OPS

Once again we see a very nice combination, but we run into the same lack of sample size as we did in center field. I highly doubt an .800 OPS out of these two guys over the course of a full season. I also highly doubt a .761 OPS out of them, which was the 2012 league average. But even a .745 OPS would be a 30 point upgrade from last year’s Mets right fielders, and I would absolutely sign on for that.

Simply put, in order for this plan to work, these players need to prove that the stats I just spewed are actual expected platoon stats, and not just the result of a miniscule sample size. I think bringing back Scott Hairston is a bigger deal than people may think, as it gets them a legitimate power threat against left-handed pitching, which they currently do not have outside of David Wright. However, when you look at the league averages of outfielders from the past year, combined with what the Mets outfielders did, I don’t think it’s as hopeless as it looks. There’s a chance this outfield might have a chance to put up some decent numbers offensively. At least, we have no choice but to hope so.

Update 3:20 PM

In fact have been told #Angels aren/t 1 of teams currently trying to obtain Dickey. So guess we could stop Bourjos or Trumbo thoughts. #Mets

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 13, 2012

Other teams asked about Mark Trumbo, and been told that he’s not available; the Angels have said they are keeping him.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 13, 2012

Well then… It should also be known that the Red Sox have signed Ryan Dempster, which might actually eliminate another potential trade partner for RA Dickey. Dempster’s deal is worth $26.5 million over two years.

Update 2:30 PM (Satish Ram)

Source: #Angels, Hamilton in agreement. Five-year deal, as first reported by @jonmorosi.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 13, 2012

ESPNDallas is reporting that it is a five-year deal worth $125 MM dollars.

So for the second straight offseason, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have signed the top position player on the market. Last year, it was Albert Pujols and this year, Josh Hamilton. This deal basically came out of nowhere and went down during the course of today. The Angels will surrender their first round pick, which was #22, and the Rangers will receive a compensatory pick later in the draft as well. As pointed out on MLBTR, Hamilton now joins a lineup that already has Albert Pujols and Mike Trout.

Rangers GM Jon Daniels is disappointed at the way the negotiations went, as the Rangers were supposedly never given an opportunity to match the offer. The Mariners were supposedly the front runners in signing Hamilton before today.

This immediately becomes important to the Mets, as the Angels were previously interested in RA Dickey and now have a surplus of outfielders. Peter Bourjos and Mark Trumbo are each trade candidates for the Mets in their own right, as Hamilton and Trout will occupy two out of the three outfield spots for the Angels. As Adam mentions under me, the Angels also have Vernon Wells under contract.

One should also not count out Texas, as they may make a play for Upton now, or make a more serious run at RA Dickey. Either way, it looks like the hot stove for the Mets indirectly just got a lot warmer.

Original Post 2:00 PM

According to a MLB source, the Los Angeles Angels are in serious discussions with free-agent outfielder Josh Hamilton. No deal is in place yet, however.

If this deal does indeed go down, I think it won’t be long until R.A. Dickey joins the Angels as well. Hamilton would be joining an outfield already consisting of Mike Trout, Mark Trumbo, and Peter Bourjos. Not to mention they still have Vernon Wells under contract.

One of Trumbo or Bourjos would have to be dealt to make room for Hamilton, and I’m sure the Angels would like to add one more starting pitcher to their rotation. Definitely keep your eye on this story as it develops.

On Monday all 30 GMs, along with a handful of players, agents, and other baseball folks, will all come together in R.A. Dickey’s hometown of Nashville, TN for the Winter Meetings. Personally, this is one of my favorite weeks in all of baseball. This is when the Hot Stove really gets cooking, so all you crabby Mets fans who keep complaining the front office isn’t doing anything can stop whining now (if the David Wright extension wasn’t enough for you), because the Mets will most likely make at least one move to get their roster ready for the 2013 season.  Here are some events that may occur in the coming days:

The R.A. Dickey Situation Will Be Resolved

Whether he is re-signed or traded, I am almost positive that we will all know the fate of R.A. Dickey and his tenure with the Mets within the coming days. There are rumors that his people and the Mets will be meeting early on during the Winter Meetings, during which I assume they will talk about where to find the best steakhouses in Nashville. Oh yeah, and that whole contract thing.

Trading the reigning Cy Young Award winner just doesn’t make sense if they aren’t going to receive an overwhelming package for him, which all reports indicate won’t happen. Neither side is far off from each other in terms of what they want for a contract extension, so all signs point toward a deal getting done.

Adam’s prediction: The Mets and R.A. Dickey agree on a 3-year, $30 million contract extension (including his 2013 option).

Jonathon Niese Will Be Shopped

If the Mets end up re-signing Dickey, then that leads me to believe Niese will be the guy they look to trade for a bat or two. The question is, will they be able to get enough? The Kansas City Royals are looking to acquire another starting pitcher, but have said to be unwilling to part with Alex Gordon or top prospect Wil Myers. We know Toronto and Boston have a bunch of guys the Mets could use, but unless they add significant pieces to the deal there’s no way Niese should be traded for them (more on this in a bit). There’s always the possibility of a team getting an urge to make a deal and overpaying, but I would not bet on that happening. And when looking at the return the Braves got for Tommy Hanson, it does not appear the market has much more to give for a pitcher of Niese’s caliber.

Adam’s prediction: Niese will not be traded.

The Mets need an outfielder who hits for power and bats right-handed. Oh, hey Ryan Ludwick!

An Outfielder Will Be Signed

Here is a list of some free agent outfielders I think the Mets could realistically afford:

Jason Bay – lol jkEndy Chavez

Ben Francisco

Kosuke Fukodome

Reed Johnson

Andruw Jones

Don Kelly

Ryan Ludwick

Nate McClouth

Nyjer Morgan

Xavier Nady

Ryan Raburn

Nate Schierholtz

Ryan Sweeney

Shane Victorino

Delmon Young

Excuse me while I throw up in my mouth looking at that list.

All kidding aside, there is one name I wouldn’t mind seeing the Mets bring in: Ryan Ludwick.

It’s evident the Mets need power, and Ludwick did hit 28 home runs for the Cincinnati Reds in 2011. Oh, and he bats right-handed, which is also something the Mets are in desperate need of. Buyer beware though, as Great American Ballpark is a notoriously hitter-friendly ballpark. On top of that, Ludwick’s previous two seasons saw him hit only 30 home runs combined in time with St. Louis, San Diego, and Pittsburgh. That being said, sometimes you have to take bold chances in order to be successful. And a one year deal for a guy with big power potential is a chance worth taking.

Adam’s prediction: The Mets sign Ryan Ludwick to a 1-year, $6 million contract.

A Trade Will Be Made

Most notably, a trade for a catcher. With that in mind, let’s go back to Boston and Toronto. They have a couple guys I’ve recently talked about, and for some reason I just keep coming back to them when it comes to finding a catcher for this team. Maybe it’s because I feel they can be had for a cheaper price than what has been suggested and the Mets have the pieces. I’m probably dead wrong on this but whatever, it’s my post so I’m going with it.

Adam’s prediction: The Mets trade Lucas Duda, Jenrry Mejia and Matt Den Dekker to the Boston Red Sox for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Daniel Nava.

If I turn out to be the new Nostradamus and all of my predictions come true this coming week, then the Mets will have built themselves a pretty decent team for 2013. Also, I will immediately send this post to all 30 MLB front offices and tell them to hire me on the spot.

More likely, however, I’ll be wrong on my latter two predictions. But I do hope I’m right with my first two, as I would like to see both Dickey and Niese return. Regardless, it should be a fun week for all baseball fans. Enjoy!

Hey guys, do you think the Mets are looking to upgrade at catcher this offseason? I mean, I haven’t heard any rumors at all and I just had this crazy idea that it might make sense for them to look into it.

Okay, so I’m just joshing you. Obviously this has been a big topic since the season ended for the Mets almost two months ago. There have been many names thrown around and a plethora of possibilities. The two names that make the most sense, in my opinion, are Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia and Boston’s Jarrod Saltalamacchia. With the Red Sox signing David Ross to a two-year deal and reportedly in talks with slugging C/1B Mike Napoli, Saltalamacchia has become very expendable. Likewise in Toronto, super-prospect Travis d’Arnaud seems to be Major League ready, and the Jays recently pulled off a mega-trade that brought catcher John Buck across the border (some throw-ins were also included in that deal, I believe. I think their names were Reyes, Johnson and Buehrle? Correct me if I’m wrong.), which would make you think that Arencibia is on the block as well.

When I first got the idea for this post, it was going to be more of a pro-Saltalamacchia and anti-Arencibia argument. But then I started doing some research and I realized that what my girlfriend has been saying all along is true: I’m an idiot. There’s no way you can praise one and bash the other because, when you look at the numbers, they’re basically the exact same player! I was astonished to see just how close the numbers were. Take a look at Arencibia’s 2011 side-by-side with Saltalamacchia’s 2012:

2011 Arencibia: 129 G, 486 AB, .219 BA, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 47 R, .282 OBP, .438 SLG, 32% CS

2012 Saltalamacchia: 121 G, 448 AB, .222 BA, 25 HR, 59 RBI, 55 R, .288 OBP, .454 SLG, 23% CS

Aside from the RBI numbers (which is not the best stat to judge a player) and Arencibia having more success against base stealers, they are almost identical. However, it’s when you flip the years when the comparisons become even more similar. Let’s now look at Arencibia’s 2012 season side-by-side with Saltalamacchia’s 2011 season:

2012 Arencibia: 102 G, 372 AB, .233 BA, 18 HR, 56 RBI, 45 R, .275 OBP, .435 SLG, 42% CS

2011 Saltalamacchia: 103 G, 386 AB, .235 BA, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 52 R, .288 OBP, .450 SLG, 45% CS

To note even further just how equal their seasons were, Arencibia had a 1.3 WAR in 2012 while Saltalamacchia posted a 1.7 WAR in 2011 (per Fangraphs).

So basically, 2012 J.P. Arencibia was 2011 Jarrod Saltalamacchia and 2012 Jarrod Saltalamacchia was 2011 J.P. Arencibia. You follow me? Good.

TWINS!

It is were noting that both catchers played half their home games in hitter-friendly parks, and if they were to be shipped to the Mets we should expect the power numbers to drop at least a little bit. Still, both would provide more power than Josh Thole even if their batting average and OBP numbers might not be as high. And both seem to do a good job at keeping runners at bay, which is always a welcome asset for a catcher.

Given the similarities in their numbers, the question should not be which one the Mets should target.  Whichever one they end up with, they’re essentially getting the same player. The key becomes which one will be cheaper to acquire. If Toronto demands Jon Niese, whereas Boston is asking for something less, then the Mets should obviously take up Boston on their offer and vice versa.

I will admit though, now that I’m more informed I have changed my mind and hope the Mets acquire Arencibia. Why is that, you ask? Because I’ve found throughout the course of this post that I hate typing “Saltalamacchia.”

The Mets have signed 30 year old IF/OF Brian Bixler to a Minor League contract with an invitation to Spring Training. The Mets made the announcement via Twitter.

Bixler hit .193 in 88 at-bats for the Houston Astros in 2012. He has a career batting average of .189, with 3 HR, and 14 RBI in four years with the Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Washington Nationals.

This past season he appeared in 36 games for the Astros, playing second and third base, shortstop, as well as both corner outfield positions.

On Wednesday, I suggested the Mets should not trade one of their starting pitchers for offensive help this winter. Today, I offer an alternative: Melky Cabrera.

According to reports, the Mets have not expressed interest in Cabrera to date. However, I feel they should have a change of heart and go after the controversial outfielder. Before his 50 game suspension in August for testing positive for testosterone, Cabrera was on pace to receive a multi-year contract for a good chunk of change that would have been way out of the Mets price range. Now, he will most likely have to settle for a 1-year deal at a much lesser amount. ESPN’s Jim Bowden predicts Cabrera will land a 1-year, $7.5 million contract. While it would be cutting it close, I believe that is doable for Sandy Alderson’s budget, and he could possibly land Cabrera for even less. But it’s not just the low risk-high reward of such a contract that makes Cabrera appealing to the Amazins. When you look at the numbers, it makes perfect sense.

Solving the Lefty Problem

One of the biggest problems for the Mets offense last year was their lefty-heavy lineup and their inability to hit left-handed pitching. Cabrera would solve both issues. A switch-hitter, Cabrera would provide balance in the lineup vs. lefties as well as valuable production. Over the past three seasons, Cabrera has posted an .831 OPS (.356 OBP/.475 SLG) vs. LHP. Compared to Lucas Duda’s .657 OPS (.299 OBP/.358 SLG) or Andres Torres and his .691 OPS (.345 OBP/.346 SLG) vs. left-handers over that same time period, Cabrera would be a huge upgrade. While Torres actually hit better from the right side of the plate in 2012 (.758 OPS), you have to wonder if that’s more of an outlier rather than a trend that will continue. Of course there is a decent chance the Mets non-tender Torres, which would leave the center field duties to Kirk Nieuwenhuis, who produced a measly .516 OPS (.286 OBP/.230 SLG) in 61 ABs last year vs. LHP. Granted that’s a pebble-sized sample, but Nieuwenhuis wasn’t exactly a lefty killer coming up through the minors either.

As for hitting from the left side of the plate, Cabrera has produced well there also. His .782 OPS over the past three seasons vs. right handed pitching would be a welcome addition to a lineup that produced a collective .715 OPS vs. right handed pitching in 2012.

Defensive Flexibility

“No lefty on the mound today? Sweet…HIGH FIVE!” (Photo: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

Cabrera is not going to win a Gold Glove Award anytime soon, but he has shown the ability to play all three outfield positions. In his career, Cabrera has started 302 games in left field and 522 in center field. And while he’s only started 60 games in right field, that has been his best position defensively according to Fangraphs (1.6 total UZR in RF, as opposed to a -3.0 in LF and -23.8 in CF). With such flexibility on defense, that would give Terry Collins plenty of options when filling out a lineup card on a daily basis. As of now, I would guess Duda is probably the starting left fielder. If the Mets want to give him more opportunities to hit lefties, they could stick Cabrera in center. If Duda struggles, they could just move Cabrera to left. If both Duda and Nieuwenhuis (or Torres, if he returns) are producing, then they could get away with starting Cabrera in right. And if neither are producing, Cabrera could just take over everyday duties in either position.

I understand Cabrera isn’t the most liked player, and he comes with baggage. Would he be a negative influence in the clubhouse? Maybe, but the beauty of having him on a 1-year deal is that the Mets would only have to deal with it for one season. Plus, I find it hard to believe the team would rebel or quit just because one guy is a Debbie Downer, especially if he produces on the field.

The off-season is still young and tons of things could happen that would make everything I just wrote a moot point. The Mets could trade for an outfielder, or someone could be very bullish on Cabrera and give him a deal the Mets can’t compete with. But right now when looking at the landscape of things, I feel this may be the best option, and a good option at that.

With the Cy Young Award being announced tonight at 6:00 p.m. EST, and R.A. Dickey the favorite to win the award, I feel now is a good time to address the ongoing speculation that the Mets are looking to trade one of their starting pitchers. It’s clear the team is weak in certain areas (catcher, outfield) and does not have much money to spend in free agency, so the only sensible way to improve would be via the trade market. However, there are two reasons why trading one of their regular starters to fill those needs would end up hurting them more than helping them.

Lack of Depth

Many are calling the Mets staff a “strength,” but that might be overstating it. As of now, the 2013 rotation would most likely be: Dickey, Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Johan Santana, and Dillon Gee. This is a good rotation, but there are still concerns.

R.A. Dickey is amazing. He should win the Cy Young Award, and his success in 2010 and 2011 shows that 2012 was no fluke. That being said, I’m not sold on him as a true #1 starter. He’s a great #2 starter and I think the Mets can get by with him as their ace this year, but a rotation with Dickey anchoring it is not ideal for a team hoping to contend. If the Mets were to trade Dickey, though, that would leave them with virtually no top-end starter for 2013. Harvey certainly has the stuff, but let’s give him another year or two before we annoint him an ace. Niese is a formidable #2/3 option, but he’s not a #1. Gee is a #4 starter at best. Finally, 2013 Johan Santana is not 2008 Johan Santana. In fact, I wouldn’t even count on him being first half-2012 Johan Santana. Nor would I count on him being healthy all season, so immediately you need another viable starter to take his place.

If the Mets were to trade one of their current starters, that would leave a spot open for one of the following: Zack Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia, Jeurys Familia, Jeremy Hefner, or Collin McHugh. As much promise as Wheeler has, he’s most likely going to begin the year in AAA so he’s out. The more things play out, the more it seems both Mejia and Familia are destined for the bullpen. That leaves Hefner and McHugh. I like Hefner and think he is a fine long reliever/spot starter, but there is no way I want him making 10-15 starts. As for McHugh, he showed last year he still has some work to do.

Of course it is possible for Sandy Alderson to sign a cheap back-end starter, but can you really expect to get anything of value given the team’s finances? And sure, there’s always a chance someone could include a back-end starter in a trade for Niese or Dickey, but would they include anything of note? I wouldn’t think so, seeing as any team acquiring a pitcher would be doing so to improve their depth.

The Future

While there is hope for 2013, the Mets best chance for success probably starts in 2014. So with that in mind, let’s look ahead.

For the sake of this piece, let’s say the Mets are able to re-sign Dickey to a multi-year extension and don’t trade any of their other pitchers. Their 2014 rotation would look like this: Harvey-Wheeler-Dickey-Niese-Gee. If that doesn’t get you excited as a Mets fan, then you’re probably either dead or in a coma. This rotation has the potential to be great. And since we’re peeking into the future, let’s take a look at a bullpen that includes Bobby Parnell, Josh Edgin, Mejia and Familia. Those are some nice power arms that can dominate the late innings if all goes well. On top of that, everyone (aside from Dickey) will be under team control for the next 4-7 years. Maybe I’m being overly optimistic, but I think they can easily build a contender around those guys.

There are some enticing names on the trading block, and in order to get talent in a trade you have to give up talent in return. But when discussing trades involving assets like Niese or Dickey, you have to look at things in both the long and short term. Dickey could bring back some nice pieces for the future, but are the Mets really that far off from contending for a Wild Card next season? Though it’s not deep, their current rotation should keep them competitive, and all they really need is one guy to step up offensively and give David Wright and Ike Davis some help in the middle of the order. And while Niese may bring in that piece, what will they do to replace a 25-year-old left hander with a career 7.54 K/9 total? The Mets have a good thing going with their pitching. It would be a shame to see them break away from it.

We want to welcome Adam to the MMO Community, where I am certain his insights will make for plenty of interesting debates on our threads. We are happy to have his talents here at Mets Merized Online. Welcome Aboard, Adam.