Early last month, MMO released an outlook of how the 2018 Mets payroll stacks up.
We estimated that with current contracts, arbitration awards, club options and renewed players, the Mets will go into the offseason with payroll hovering around $127 million. Arbitration will likely be good for about $51 million of that.
Typically players become eligible for salary arbitration after accruing three years of Major League service time. However, a select few can become eligible for arbitration one year earlier if they qualify as Super Two players.
On Monday, MLB Trade Rumors released their arbitration projections with 12 Mets being eligible. The number in parenthesis is MLB service time.
- Norichika Aoki (5.148) – $6.3MM
- Tommy Milone (5.113) – $2.2MM
- Matt Harvey (5.072) – $5.9MM
- A.J. Ramos (5.030) – $9.2MM
- Jeurys Familia (5.024) – $7.4MM
- Zack Wheeler (4.098) – $1.9MM
- Travis d’Arnaud (4.044) – $3.4MM
- Wilmer Flores (4.003) – $3.7MM
- Jacob deGrom (3.139) – $9.2MM
- Noah Syndergaard (2.149) – $1.9MM
- Hansel Robles (2.127) – $1.0MM
Their predictions fall in line with ours, with the aforementioned players slated to make $52.1 million next season. However, one has to figure there are a couple names on the list who may not return.
For one, it’s highly unlikely the Mets keep Tommy Milone around after he pitched to a 1-3 record with a 7.63 ERA in 2017, so you can remove that $2.2 million from the equation.
Nori Aoki is another name that’s up in the air. The outfielder had a good final month of the season after joining the Mets in September, but $6.3 million is a lot to dole out for a player who should be a fourth outfielder.
It’s no secret that Matt Harvey had a horrendous campaign, but for $5.9 million, the Mets will almost certainly offer him salary arbitration and keep their fingers crossed he bounces back.
Hansel Robles is another name that had a rough season, but considering he’s young and has shown shades of his potential, it’s unlikely the Mets cut him loose.
With that being said, salary arbitration should make up between $40-50 million of payroll for 2018.