Prediction Audit: Hits and Misses…Mostly Misses

An article by posted on June 12, 2014 0 Comments

David-Price

So here we are, 40% of the season is done and the Mets are 61 games away from the 90 win bar set by GM Sandy Alderson before the season started. So the Mets only need to play .628 ball the rest of the way to achieve their 90 wins, totally do-able (crickets).

So, Sandy wasn’t the only one who swung and missed on his 2014 prediction, before the season started I gave you my predictions too. Let’s look at my hits and misses thus far.

AL East: Tampa, Boston, New York, Toronto, Baltimore – Swing and a miss! Tampa’s offense has made the Mets look like the Big Red Machine, and Boston’s luck appears to have run out. Toronto has had a pretty red hot last 30 days and has the rest of the division in the rear view mirror. You know it’s bad here when people actually wish they had an injury prone .735 OPS hitter as their SS again. As for the Yankees? Nailed it.

AL Central: Detroit, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago –   Well, I guess I was right so far with regards to the Tigers. But seriously, anybody who picked against Detroit this year was just playing the odds. I think one big miss I had was Jose Abreu – that guy is scary. Still, the rest of the division is hovering the .500 mark so I think it’s too early to tell what was right and what was wrong. Xtreem’s MVP pick has been terrible huh? Where did you go Eric Hosmer?

AL West: Los Angeles, Texas, Oakland, Seattle, Houston – Right now, you can put LA, Texas and Seattle in a hat and draw two names and you’ll be just fine. I feel okay about my predictions for those 3 teams. What still gets me is Oakland. At the next Sandy lover meeting, I’m probably going to have to do push ups when they re-read my Oakland prediction. I don’t know what it is about that team, but they defy “on paper,” so magnificently. Their critics over the last twenty years point to the lack of World Series championships – but this is a team on its way to their 9th 90+ win season in the last 15 years, second only to the Yankees who have 11. It baffles me that people do not respect that.

NL East: Washington, Atlanta, New York, Miami, Philadelphia – You know what I find funny is when people excuse the Nats current lack of a big division lead on “injuries.” Meanwhile Atlanta is thinking, “um hello?” The Braves, like Oakland just continue to defy logic it seems. It’s really telling what a well-run organization can do when faced with great challenges. Atlanta pretty much started the whole Tommy John epidemic conversation, and they have not looked like a team that lost anybody. Miami is somehow still hanging tough without Jose Fernandez, probably thanks to that Giancarlo fella everybody talks about. I totally crushed my awards though right? Harper-Colon-DiceK. That’s what horse racing fans call a Trifecta!

NL Central: St. Louis, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Milwaukee – Crushed it! Man those Brewers are terrible right? Probably something like 10 games out of the…what’s that? Oh they are the 3rd best team in the sport? Oh, that’s my bad. But seriously, isn’t that pretty much everybody’s bad? Is somebody going to comment that they saw this coming? Fun fact, Ryan Braun’s OPS is EXACTLY the same as it was when he was suspended last year. Weird. Still, I think the Cardinals can take this division and I’m okay with sliding Cincy and the Buccos down a slot to make room for the Brew Crew in 2nd. Before anybody does it, the fact Carlos Gomez is good now – doesn’t mean the Mets should have not acquired Johan Santana. So don’t even bother typing it. Speaking of Carlos Gomez (I know my most loyal “fans” won’t like this) but whenever a player in their late 20’s suddenly becomes a power hitter, don’t we usually have a habit of questioning that? 44 HR in 2,130 plate appearances through the age of 26, now 36 HR in 858 appearances at 27 and 28. No biggy, probably special vitamins or something. I guess I just find it odd that a guy who was never seen as a power threat is suddenly becoming one late in his career. (And here they go!)

NL West: Los Angeles, Arizona, San Diego, San Francisco, Colorado – Seems like the answer to my question “Can anybody stop the Dodgers?” is yes, “themselves.” I couldn’t have been more wrong about San Francisco and Arizona though, jeez. Back to LA, it’s amazing that a team with so much talent can be such a mess. They can’t even be looked at like the Marlins a few years ago – because this team is pretty much the same roster as last year with some minor tweaks. I saw manager Don Mattingly blame chemistry – and I hate to tell ya Donny, but that’s on you. Colorado started to play really well, but they are starting to come back to reality. This division is a two team race between San Francisco and Los Angeles – and I myself would love to see the Giants take it.

So what does this all mean?

Clearly, I am going to blame the unpredictability of the sport and ignore the fact that with 40% of the season completed – my pick average is somewhere between the batting average of Travis d’Arnaud and Ruben Tejada.

So what has surprised you about your own predictions as we head into the dog days of summer?

About the Author ()

Michael Branda grew up a Mets fan watching the mid 1980's teams and his favorite Met of all-time is (and was) Wally Backman. When it comes to sabermetrics versus old school thinking, he's in the middle and believes adopting new ways to get answers is helpful, especially when the old way has not produced results.