Mets Front Office Not Too Worried About Lack Of Offense

MLB Opening Day at Citi Field

You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the Mets offense has been pretty damn awful so far this season.

We all hope and pray that things will begin to turn around sooner rather than later, but five weeks into the season and our team continues to flounder. Knowing that, I was still somewhat stunned by something Jared Diamond posted on Twitter during last night’s game.

Kind of scary, huh?

Unless your starting rotation goes on the kind of run we saw during the last homestand at Citi Field, where Mets starters limited the opposition to two runs or less, how can we possibly stay above .500 with this offense?

The other day, when we were at our high point of the season and four games over .500, general manager Sandy Alderson told the NY Times’ Tyler Kepner that he is in a good position to add payroll at the deadline or parlay some of his young pitching depth to acquire a bat. My question is, why wait until the deadline?

If there is a way to upgrade this lineup somehow, shouldn’t we act now rather than wait until the end of July when it may be too late and the Mets are once again forced to become sellers for the sixth consecutive season?

Sandy challenged his staff and his players to win 90 games this season. In fact, he repeated this 90-win goal again as recently as two days ago. He’s not letting go of it. But shouldn’t that challenge also apply to him as far as what he can do to improve what is currently one of worst offenses in the game?

A few days ago, Marc Carig of Newsday, reported that the Mets front office is not at all worried because they believe the offense is solid and that they are simply the victims of bad luck.

“There is optimism within the front office that the hits will eventually start falling,” Carig writes. “It’s rooted in the belief that the Mets have not been rewarded for scorching the ball.”

At 21.7 percent, the Mets’ line-drive rate ranks fifth best in the major leagues, according to data from FanGraphs.com. Considering how hard the Mets have hit the ball, one estimate puts the team’s expected batting average for balls in play at a healthy .326, good enough for third in all of baseball.

However, Carig also points out that advanced metrics like BABIP are not universally accepted because its calculation is very subjective.

“One observer’s liner could be another’s fly ball. For instance, Inside Edge scouting data ranked the Mets among the worst at making solid contact.”

Manager Terry Collins also said recently that he takes batted ball data “with a grain of salt.”

“Yeah, we’ve hit some balls hard,” he said. “But I haven’t noticed a big bunch of balls that people are making catches on or anything.”

I’m no expert when it comes to BABIP, but the eye-test tells me that this team may be suffering more from having too many bad players than it does bad luck. But for now, I’ll give the front office the benefit of the doubt.

I do believe players like David Wright and Curtis Granderson will have an offensive turnaround, and in fact both players seem to be performing better at the plate over the last two games. Let’s hope that trend continues.

However, it’s the lack of production from left field, first base and shortstop that has me most concerned. Mets left fielders have combined for a .218/.317/.291 batting line thus far through 28 games.

The Mets have used six different cleanup hitters so far this season and they have combined to produce a .521 on-base plus slugging, the worst production among the 1-through-8 spots in the lineup.

The number two spot in the lineup is only marginally better, but has a woeful .292 on-base percentage and a .303 slugging percentage.

I think the lineup could use a shake up. I’ve been advocating for Travis d’Arnaud to bat second in the lineup since Spring Training. I would love to see what this kid could do hitting in front of Wright instead of Ruben Tejada.

I see Murphy more as 6-7 hitter and certainly not the kind of on-base guy you want to bat in the top of the order.

I hope the front office is right and the team is as good offensively as they believe, and that this really is all just a case of rotten luck, but what if they’re wrong?

Terry Collins finally decided to bat Juan Lagares leadoff as many of us have wanted since the season began, and so far the gifted center fielder has responded well. But lets not stop there. I want to see a player with a solid approach like d’Arnaud batting in that two hole while sliding Murphy lower in the batting order so that we can use his free swinging approach to drive in some runs.

Good teams make their own luck.

If we’re not going to add another bat anytime soon, then lets utilize the strengths of this current group of players better than we have thus far.

Lets put all our players in a position to succeed.

It could provide the spark we need to get this team to finally start producing consistently at the plate.

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About Joe D 7843 Articles
I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73, '00 and '15, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction and interact with other passionate Met fans like you. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.
  • Novito

    A’s looking for starting pitching according to mlbtraderumors.
    What would you guys trade scenerios be? I know they got what’s his name, Addison Russel? But i know thats probably unrealistic.

  • Nolrog

    I guess the difference between me and the FO is that I am worried about the lack of production from the office. And while I expect the offence to improve, I also don’t expect the starters to pitch to the same level they have all year (which is odd to say, considering the starters performance the last two days.)

  • Nolrog

    Yanks are desperate for starting pitching too. I think Gee would be perfect for them.

  • mr mojo risin

    other than some of the things he said about RA Dickey, that’s possibly the most enlightened TC quote I’ve seen

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    It’s gonna be really hard to pry Russell away from Oakland, especially with him being close to ML ready and Lowrie on his way out. It would be nice to get a power bat like Cespedes too.

  • HarveyKsYou

    The worst offensive Mets team I’ve ever seen. No one gives you any confidence up there this year.. Not even Wright.

  • I wish the Mets and Yankees would get over themselves and make a trade that would help both teams.

    I think they match up well for a trade, but they are each afraid of the other getting over on them and how it would look to the fans I think.

  • Novito

    Hey Joe D,

    Who would you offer and ask for from the Yankees? As well as A’s?

  • They would probably ask a ton for him (rightfully so), so it might be tough landing him.

  • Novito

    If they asked for Montero, would you do it? Is he worth bluechip pitching?

  • Martin

    there is no way the front office is not concerned. thats their job. they are definitely searching for pitching for hitting trades right now, almost surely involving shortstop and first.

  • KennyandtheMets

    Not worried about the offense?! Seriously?!?!

  • KennyandtheMets

    Great article Joe D.! There is no reason to keep waiting to add offense.

  • Metropolitan

    of course not this organization does not care about winning

  • Brian D.

    They wouldn’t do it for just Montero

  • I don’t see us matching up with the A’s. I love Donaldson, but we have Wright. I like Cespedes, but they are unwilling to move him and we’re stuck with CY in left. I do like Moss, but how much better than Duda is he when you think about it?

    The Yankees would have been great to trade Ike Davis to, but the Mets wont trade any kids to them for fear of them becoming stars, and they won’t trade Gee or Niese until they start seeing how Harvey is progressing from TJS.

    Anyway, that’s the way I see it….

  • HawkZon

    Because the FO doesn’t care about winning.

  • I’m afraid they might ask for Thor.

  • Novito

    Thanks for the reply & best damn baseball site! Well, with Sandy’s connection to Oakland, i wonder would it help a bit & maybe a 3 team trade scenario. We def need offense.

  • HawkZon

    “If there is a way to upgrade this lineup somehow, shouldn’t we act now
    rather than wait until the end of July when it may be too late and the
    Mets are once again forced to become sellers for the sixth consecutive
    season?”

    Yes, we should upgrade now. We should have upgraded SS and first base in the off season but waiting until July is SA excuse NOT to do anything…as usual.

  • Saratoga_Jon

    Doesn’t Cespedes have the ability to forego his last two years of arbitration and enter directly into free agency?

  • Novito

    That’s when Sandy puts the hammer, er phone down.

  • I think besides myself, other bloggers like Cerrone and Simon have also felt the best way for the Mets to match up and add someone via a trade was to bring in a third team.

    Personally, I felt a third team could have helped us acquire a shortstop during the offseason while moving Davis either to the Pirates, Orioles or Brewers when his value was a little higher.

  • mr mojo risin

    just an FYI … the Condensed game video on the MLB At-Bat app is right up there with oxygen as the best inventions ever

  • Oh and thanks for the compliment.

  • Novito

    Definitely. It’s really looking like that’ll be the only way we can get a good trade going.

  • sarge69

    So many easy outs in lineup and Duda with occasional HR don’t help since Mets never hit HR with runners on so you have do depend on stringing hits together.

    You might get two hits or a hit and a walk but you run into the part of the batting order that is just about automatic out so opposing pitchers don’t have to challenge these low avg hitters.

    Getting on base is great but that is not the problem, it is the bringing in of those players on base, everyone is worrying about taking pitches and forget to look at hitting the pitch that is set up for them.

    Terrible, terrible pitched game, down again by 7 runs by the 5th.
    Why isn’t anyone pitching inside to these guys? Afraid that David my get hit in retaliation? Really?

    Yes the Rockies look comfortable at Coors Field, the high altitude, the big park, pitchers not pushing them off the plate and Met pitchers that suddenly forget how to pitch and are throwing fat pitches over the plate.

    Hopefully Mejia will keep the “Rocks” off balance with his breaking pitches.

  • NewYorkMammoths

  • Hotstreak

    For offense: The FA signing of risky players based on last year and including DW based on trend analysis of being a complimentrary and not a guy to do heavy igniting the team in power is fully at the blame of management and the owners for contiuing to cut payroll. The FA were for appeasement only.

    I used the word risk: Risk with whih high reward such as Jose’ Aberu and maybe Kazmir at oveall less commitment with DW not resigned and a ton of prospects would have been the waygo. What do we do now: Wait and hope the nice guys deliver as they get older?

  • Macdaddy

    This whole discussion is a bit like the line from the Movie Tommy Boy…

    “I can get a good look at a T-bone by sticking my head up a bull’s ass, but I’d rather take a butcher’s word for it.”

    Unfortunately, I don’t need the butcher (Sandy) or some quasi sabermetrics BABIP telling me what they should be doing…when the reality is rather simple…the offense is horrible. Facts remain that this is what the team has been since 2012 and to assume this leopard is going to change it’s stripes/spots is foolish at best.

  • skyking26

    They should be worried. Their offense is pathetic!

  • jason bay

    No one is looking to trade us a hitter at this early point I. The year except perhaps Arizona or the Cubs because everyone else is more or less “in it.”

    It would take a lot more to act early as hopefully it did for Pittsburgh although i don’t think we’re in the market another Ike.

  • goorru

    Why should they, the same saps like Jessup will make excuses and show up to games regardless of the on field product.

  • mets4lyfe

    “However, Carig also points out that advanced metrics like BABIP are not universally accepted because its calculation is very subjective.

    “One observer’s liner could be another’s fly ball. For instance, Inside Edge scouting data ranked the Mets among the worst at making solid contact.”

    Bingo!

    There’s a huge gray area when it comes to defining what’s a ‘line-drive’.

  • jason bay

    His value was pretty low in the off season.

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    Be careful, or you’ll be replaced with a better, more compliant fan. 😉

    Kidding, of course–they’re already doing that. Their promotions are casting the net far and wide to attract non-fans to the park to enjoy the “experience.”

  • No need for personal insults. If you dont want to go to games nobody begrudges you your right to do so. If others want to go to Mets games with their friends or family who are you to begrudge them?

  • It was a bit higher than when we traded him which is all I said.

  • Novito

    Some nice stats Rubin tweeted about Lagares. He really is the man. I’m def getting his jersey. My new fav Met since last yr. and pretty sure all of yours too.

  • Macdaddy

    I don’t know about you…but I think I can tell the difference between a line drive, flare, pop up, duck snort or something hit to the warning track…

    Stats are always the tool and ploy of the party that is either using them to prove or disprove a point…thus one can frame them as they see fit. I, like a damn fool, suggest that my lying eyes tend to be a fairly good judge as to what guys are or are not doing. In the case of the Mets there are a whole host of issues that start with core fundamentals and end with what seems to be a lack of understanding situational hitting.

    The challenge with all these comments is rather simple…it is clear we can see and diagnose the problem, but coming up with a cure/solution is what need to occur. Will that happen…that seems to be the real issue on the table.

  • Scottydoeskno328

    Does the Mets FO worry really about anything? Offense, attendance, marketing stupidity, payroll ranked in bottom third of baseball?

    Nope I think not.

  • mets4lyfe

    Trust me, I don’t believe the Mets are victims of “bad luck”. They’re just a bad offensive bunch.

  • BMac

    The Mets have no money. The payroll is as high as it is going to be. If a move requires more money they cannot make it. They need every penny for the debt payments down the road. Sandy said he is authorized to increase payroll. He is lying. Like the Wilpons did when they said the lower payroll had nothing to do with the Madoff scheme. Like they did when they said this is the year they would spend more money. Like Sandy did when he said he would upgrade shortstop and first base. Like Sandy did when he said payroll would be higher this year. If you want to pretend there is a chance they will increase payroll because it is fun to talk about what might happen if that was true, fine. Just know that nothing that has happened in the last 5 years would indicate that this will happen.

  • goorru

    Well as per MMO’s Jessup “the Mets need new fans”.

  • Macdaddy

    A very factual statement. 162 games reveals what any team is or isn’t…and in the case of the Mets the past several years have shown them to be a horrible offensive team.

    You can put lipstick on a pig and convince yourself that it’s worth dating but the rest of world sees and knows better…thus you are the fool going around telling everyone that your pig is something else. If that is the approach then you become subjected to either ridicule or in the worse case sympathy. I hate both situations but the later truly pisses me off…

  • mets4lyfe

    Kazmir’s fastball was in the 91-93 mph range when he was pitching for the Sugar Land Skeeters in 2012. Apparently, the Mets FA were the only ones who didn’t see it when they were scouting Kazmir.

    At the least, they could’ve offered Kazmir a minor league deal and brought him up as a LOOGY.

  • billpulsipher

    of course they arent worried because that would mean the genius sandy would have to admit he failed. He failed at acquiring good hitters and his idiotic hitting philosophy failed as well. Sandy=FAILURE

  • Hotstreak

    We do not have to fix the Mets. We have to get them to be loyal fans like the Cub fans who have accepted losing and just show up to sing “Take Me Out To The Ball Game”. Maybe because we are not “true” Met fans we should commit hara kiri or is it Harry Carry.

  • Ed Charles

    I know we all like to think about “next” year, as we’re four years into the beginning of a three year rebuilding plan. But the young pitching has LOADS of questions — Harvey returning from a year out of baseball and TJ surgery, we ALL see how much Wheeler needs to mature, Syndegaard will be Wheeler this year, next year, and Meijia is just finding himself — which leaves Gee and Niese as the only real stable pitchers in the rotation. My point is, only Colon and Montero will be used as trade bait — possibly DeGrom, but I doubt it. Niese isn’t going anywhere until Matz can show he can be an effective lefty. So how do we fix the offense? Young is gone, Duda is a bench player, and we have no SS. Maybe one guy in the minors surprises (ala Lagares) but there’s just too many holes to fill if free agency is taken off the table. Kazmir would have be special for the fans, as would Backman at manager, but this FO and Ownership have no feel for the pulse of their own fans.

  • Hotstreak

    A lot of good comments here showing the true pulse of the Mets fans.

  • Taskmaster4450

    What is offense?

    Did anybody sit down and think about it?

    The Mets were in the upper third before the Colorado series in runs scored per game. Yet everyone wants to attack the offense since they were at the bottom of the league in BA, OBP, OPS and all other kinds of metrics. Well, isnt the name of the game scoring runs? The Mets were averaging a tad over 4 per game which put them ahead of heralded lineups like the Dodgers.

    Last night the Mets had two less baserunners than the Rockies (13-15). That is it. Yet they got blown out by 7 runs. They were 9-34 at the plate which is hitting at a .264 clip. I dont think anyone would complain if the Mets yearly average was .264. What is interesting is they scored a run less than they average per game. How do you account for that?

    So which do you want, nice stats or runs scored. Sure they often go together but as I heard Girardi say some time back when the Yankees werent scoring, “we need to come up with big hits”.

    David Wright (and no this isnt picking on him) came up his 3rd time and Cohen said he was 2 for 2. I was shocked. Even though I was watching the game, I would have guessed Wright was 0 for 2. Talk about two uninspiring hits. Why? They meant nothing. Grandy, last week, went 1 for 5 in a game…the one hit being the one that drove in the game winning run. How does that compare to a 2 out single in the first inning which nets nothing?

    You can look at stats to determine offense all you want. People point to both traditional and advanced metrics to gauge what teams are doing. The bottom line is there are only two stats that count: runs scored and runs against. That is how they determine winning and losing.

    The bottom line, and I know this will send the saber people up in arms, RBIs do matter. Guys need to drive in runs. I really could care less if a guy goes 0 for 4 every game if he comes up in the 9th and drives in a run each time. Sacrifice flies, moving runners over with groundouts to the right side, and infield groundouts when the opposition is giving the run with a man on 3rd and less than two out are important parts of the game (to give Wright credit, he does excel at getting the runners in from 3rd in those situations). Too many over look it by focusing on the need to get on base or get a base hit.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    What can they really do? Shuffle around poorly performing players in the lineup is about it. Other than swapping Flores for Tejada, there’s not that much to do. They have to wait to see if other teams start to fall out of it and maybe some guys become available and we can make some deals. Until then, other than making changes in the bullpen, there’s not much to be done.

  • 3doza33

    The philosophy is great! It is how good teams approach games. It only works if you have good hitters though. Bad hitters have enough problems with getting the bat on the ball nevermind working a count… Our hitting coach and manager should realize this and change their approach until that talent is in place.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments
  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    I assume any “fan” who makes fun of another fan for the way they root for the team looks something like this at home…

  • Taskmaster4450

    Come on TGWLC.

    Trade for Tulo or Cargo. They will take Tejada and Montero and be happy. Go get Goldschmidt from AZ…Gee should appease Towers there. The Marlins need to trade Stanton today before his free agency kicks in so he is available.

    Sandy just needs to make these deals….it is his laziness as to why the Mets are missing out. Look at all the deals going down throughout baseball as we speak. It is mindblowing the Mets can make a deal today…May 3rd.

    Dont you know the trading deadline is under 90 days away? The time to move is now before time expires.

  • Hotstreak

    Good job. Interestingly its not the ducks on the pond because runners LOB kills them all. It is the key hit that is either a two out RBI or a walk that comes with no outs late in a tie game. I’ll take a walk with no outs in a tie came rather than a walk in a tie game with two outs. Situational baseball.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Oh, that’s right! Thanks, Task. You’re always there to remind me of all the deals out there that Sandy is refusing to make.

  • goorru

    Reports were the Mets scouts couldn’t afford a radar gun. maybe they sent the same geniuses to look at Hanrahan.

  • Taskmaster4450

    Situational baseball is a lost art it seems.

    Ducks on the pond are important. Someone needs to be on to be driven in. However, that LOB is an important stat. My problem with EYJ is that he has left a ton of guys on base. The runs and SBs are great but he continually comes up with two and even three men on and fails. He is also terrible at getting the man in from third and less than two out (as is much of the team).

    That is why Murphy was the best bat in the Met lineup last year….he led the team in runs scored and RBIs. He was adding on both sides of the run equation.

  • Hotstreak

    Grin and Bear it like Cub Fans. Show your loyalty. sarcasm

  • Waz0787

    They should have called up flores today if they believed in him.

  • Taskmaster4450

    Well he did refuse to sign Hanrahan as you saw from all the comments.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Honestly, what else is there to do for now? (not sarcasm)

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Fine. But that’s it, like I said. Where else can they upgrade right now?

  • Taskmaster4450

    He is getting close. Give him a couple weeks to get his swing back which it looks like his happening.

    Dont forget he didnt play most of last week because of a jammed finger.

  • Hotstreak

    Not watch or care about them. I can’t shake this bad habit.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    That’ll be the difference I’m sure.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Oh, okay. That works.

  • Waz0787

    By the way since alderson love talking about prospects. He hasn’t provided not a single major leaguer that he drafted since becoming our gm.

  • jason bay

    Offense is on the way in:

    C TDA, Plaweicki, Nido, Garcia
    1B Dykstra, Flores, Boyd, Smith
    2B Muno, TJ, Herrera, McNiel
    SS Reynolds, Evans, Cecchini, Rosario, A Reyes
    3B Flores, Perez
    LF Taijeron, Lawley, Ceciliani
    CF Lagares, Nimmo, Stuart, Wilson, Biondi
    RF Puello, Vaughn, King, Zimmer? Davidson?

    Takes time to rebuild the entire system but once the pump has been primed all you have to do is keep a steady hand on it. Our problem is that we never combined IFA with the draft. It was always one or the other and the only big hit we’ve had in either is Harvey who went #7 going all the way back to 2002 when we signed Carlos Gomez.

  • Waz0787

    Nothing

  • Waz0787

    Tejeda sucks. He can’t be worse

  • mr mojo risin

    I don’t believe anyone really thinks RBIs don’t matter within the context of a game. I think what people say is that it is not a good tool to use when comparing players over time.

  • Waz0787

    Dude our FO is clueless

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    That’s going to be awesome in 2017

  • jason bay

    How many Major League position players drafted 2011 or later has any Organization produced?

    For that matter how many did we produce from 2002 forward?

    Duncan, Tyner, Jacobs, Phillips, Wiggenton, Thole, Fern, Milledge, Murphy, Duda, Davis, Centeno, Kirk, MDD, Tovar, Tejada, Flores, Lagares, Satin and Lutz.

    From 1998 – 2002 we produced Reyes, Nelson Cruz, Wright and Carlos Gomez

  • jason bay

    Yeah, for once future teams are being built so we can get away from this whole “who can we get for 15 spots on 25 plus our entire AAA stash.

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    “Yet everyone wants to attack the offense since they were at the bottom
    of the league in BA, OBP, OPS and all other kinds of metrics.”

    Because these are input measures that are strongly correlated with the output measure of offensive success (runs scored). Over 162 games, a team will not be last or almost last in all of these categories and remain in the upper third of runs scored.

    You’re looking at a runs-scored outlier in a too-small sample and drawing a false conclusion. No amount of realistic situational hitting can overcome such weak input measures over a full season.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Well, not all those guys are going to pan out, some will be tossed into trades. Can’t write it down in pen, but pencil is fine.

  • Taskmaster4450

    Jeffy prefers Crayon I hear.

  • billpulsipher

    remember that outfield of lastings milledge and fernando martinez. all stars for 15 years…oh wait

  • billpulsipher

    skipping Wacha and Jose Fernandez was the workings of an idiot

  • Taskmaster4450

    Name the guys from the 2011, 2012, and 2013 draft who were available when the Mets selected who are in the major leagues right now.

    Outside Wacha, Fernandez, and the Atl pitcher, you would be hard pressed to find anyone.

  • billpulsipher

    they can find some more 40 year old minimum wage earning dumpster pickups…sandy is real good at that

  • DrewC

    I don’t think that is really accurate. I watched a game the other day vs. the hated Cardinals and Wrigley was empty.

  • Taskmaster4450

    Were you calling for Wacha before the draft in 2012?

    Funny I dont recall seeing one person on here calling for him before that draft.

  • billpulsipher

    but im not a personnel drafting genius like sandy and his minions claim to be…

  • Taskmaster4450

    Ah I see.

    Please link where Alderson and his minions claimed to be a personnel draft genius.

    I am sure you have it handy.

  • Strake

    That was brilliant Joe

  • jason bay

    Might have actually been a little higher when he was traded due to there being nowhere else to really go but I recall my initial fear when Alderson was hired that with Ike being our most attractive trade chip in terms of productivity, cost and years of team control he might start the rebuild with him.

    Guess that was a misplaced fear

  • Taskmaster4450

    Ah another MMO.

    I guess you dont understand the difference between having one or two guys who are highly thought of versus having a plethora of guys.

  • MetsfanInParadise

    In addition to the subjectivity of the definition of line drives there’s another problem with BABIP. Not all BABIPs are created equal. Is a player who strikes out 180 times in 600 ABs with a BABIP of .340 equal to one who strikes out 80 or 100 times with a BABIP of .340? Of course not. At some point you have to take those strikeouts into account. You can have a 40% “line drive rate” and at some point your BA. will still be dragged down by all those balls not put into play. BABIP may be a vague indicator that a player is hitting in bad luck and his average is bound to climb, but it doesn’t really say how good a hitter is or how far his average will climb once those liners start to fall in. “Expected” BABIP, based on how may balls “should” fall in, is triply flawed because it relies on 1. Subjective ratings of a batted ball as a line drive or not, 2. A subjective estimate of how much the current BABIP is affected by bad luck, and 3. the obvious flaw I first mentioned. Not to mention those productive outs that don’t show in any average–moving a runner over so he can core on a sac fly or groundout, the actual groundout AB, or even a run that scores on a double play grounder. The more a batter is prone to strikeouts the less meaningful BABIP is because it accounts for a smaller percentage of his actual PAs. It’s like saying you’re not going to count a pitcher’s wild pitches or HRs allowed in his ERA. Or his innings after the 6th. You can’t only count the parts that make him look good.

  • jason bay

    Yes but at least we are not counting on one prospect for every position.

  • Taskmaster4450

    Or one or two prospects for the entire organization.

  • MetsfanInParadise

    Just to make sure the point wasn’t buried I’ll state it again: The more a batter is prone to strikeouts the less meaningful BABIP is because it accounts for a smaller percentage of his actual performance. How can you judge a player based on only 2/3 of his at bats?

  • jason bay

    First of all those are not position players and secondly lots of teams passed on those two and the guys we took will have something to say about whether they were good choices and are only 22 and 20 years old.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Well, let’s wait and see who’s still around. Many of them could find themselves (hopefully) part of a package for a serious piece.

  • jason bay

    That is an excellent point.

    Thank you for re posting it.

  • jason bay

    I think the pitcher has a lot to do with poor BABIP too by inducing weak contact.

    Even good contact can be defensed like Granderson with his line drives hit right at the first basemen by proper defensive positioning.

  • Waz0787

    Mazzoni, varett, phil looks like busts. I had hope for jake the rocket but he has no control. They were all established college arms who could have helped the pen

  • MetsfanInParadise

    My pleasure. Obviously it’s especially meaningless for this team because we strike out more than any other team. So it’s a criticism of the stat in general as well as its application to the Mets.

  • jason bay

    Really.

    Mets top 10 at times has resembled someone else’s bottom 10.

  • MetsfanInParadise

    All the pitchers? Even the ones who come into the games against us with an ERA over 5? Once we start making journeymen look like Cy Young candidates it’s no longer about the pitcher. Good hitters hit more balls solidly off good pitchers than bad hitters do.
    Again, with Grandy, the quality of his contact is less significant because of the percentage of the time he doesn’t make contact. You can’t just ignore those ABs.

  • jason bay

    Well it was really 3 guys.

    Fern (rushed) Milledge (rushed) and Gomez (rushed) and should have included Bay (traded) and Cruz (traded) which probably would have reduced the need to rush the first three and given them a better chance to make it, and make it here.

  • jason bay

    No you cannot and it is a very good point you bring up.

  • jason bay

    Yup, no doubt.

  • Taskmaster4450

    That is what prospects are for….to either help the parent club or as trade bait.

  • Super T

    While the season is still too early to effectively judge, the front office hasn’t worried about fielding an effective offense for a number of seasons now, so why exactly would they be worried now – barely over 1 month into the season?

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Like Hanrahan? He’s not 40, but just as much a question mark and MMO is in love with him.

  • jason bay

    And they very well might. Most successful relievers were in fact starting pitchers in the minors, not to mention in college.

    Leathersich was a reliever in college and might develop into a lockdown LOOGY but he is developing his pitches in the minors right now and that is the reason for his lack of control.

    He’s working on what he has to improve on but a simple grip change can be the key and boom he’s got it.

    I still prefer Mazzoni and Verrett as AAA stash to Lawrence, Williams, Chan Ho Park, ect and so forth.

  • NYM86

    That list is not so inspiring. Only worthwhile guys on there that could have a chance to contribute are Smith, Nimmo, Plawecki, Cecchini, Rosario, Puello, Herrera and maybe Ceciliani. The rest, meh.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    “Mets Front Office Not Too Worried About Lack Of Offense”

    No surprise there since they havent been worried about lack of winning for the past 3-4yrs.

  • joeythew

    David Hudgens is the modern day Alfred E. Neuman – “What me, Worry?”

  • joeythew

    Even if they took Jose Fernandez in the draft knowing Alderson he’d still be in AA.

  • joeythew

    Should probably include Scutaro in the 1998-2002 bunch.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    My issue with the SABR-NUTS is they bash traditionalists for the eye test and other basic evaluating tools.

    And they love to say how DEFINITE MATH is and the numbers NEVER lie

    BUT, WTF is BABIP????

    BABIP Is based on THE EYE TEST but even WORST it is considered a LUCK STAT.

    How many times do you hear SABRNUTS say oh so and so is having a good year[ALTHOUGH HIS STATS SAY OTHERWISE] he is just having BAD LUCK!!!

    Or so and so is not as good as his stats say[ALTHOUGH HIS STATS SAY OTHERWISE] because he is having GOOD LUCK balls are dropping that shouldnt be….lmfao…you cant make this stuff up

    BABIP IS A UNICORN STAT.

    Ishouldnt believe my own eyes but I should believe in LUCK and the tooth fairy and easter bunny…..Makes sense(NOT)

  • KennyandtheMets

    That’s why the 90 win crap is so offensive to me.

  • Biggle Boy

    Nero was not concerned while Rome was burning … and we have a lineup where half of the players are hitting under .240. But of course, management is not concerned.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    The reason LF production has been so bad is simple

    ERIC YOUNG JR.

    EYK has played there virtually almost every game.

    Chris B.Young whom was hurt and when he came back was playing Centerfield for the hurt Lagares will now an LF EVERYDAY and production will be up.

    Since being moved back to LF C.Young is “3 for 7”

    Happy days are here with no more EYJR.

    P.S. Thanks JoeD.—-for inadvertently pointing out how bad Eric Young Jrs production has been in LF

  • MetsfanInParadise

    In formal logic there’s a fallacy known as “ad hominem abusive,” which mean trying to discredit the argument by discrediting the speaker. It’s a fallacy because insults don’t add anything to the weight of the argument. In fact they detract by making the commenter seem less reliant on facts and more reliant on insults. I’d like to know how many people think my argument against BABIP is more effective, and how many think Leroy’s is. I think the point is made more effectively without references to “SABRNUTS.”

  • mr mojo risin

    I don’t really care for the stat too much mainly due to how people tend to use it. Even so, the ‘luck’ factor is only a small component. Obviously the better hitters will generally make better contact and their balls will find grass (or seats) at a higher rate than what is accepted as average.

  • Peter S

    Call me crazy but I think TdA should bat 3rd with Wright 4th, Grandy 5th, Duda/Young based on pitching at 6 and 7. 8th will be a black hole for another few weeks at least. Lagares Murphy 1-2

  • Peter S

    Does BABIP taken into account how lucky a player gets on bloopers or slow dribblers that make it through the drawn in INF. Or how a bunt is considered a hit? I would think that since it’s an “eye” test, those types of hits should be counted as an out since they are lucky to fall.

  • metstastic

    A couple of points:

    No teams are looking to make big time trades just yet. You would have to extremely overpay to get someone to listen.

    1B, LF have been revolving doors. that skews the numbers.

    When you have guys like Murphy batting cleanup, it further skews the numbers.

  • BronxMets

    They’ve never been worried about anything. Why do you guys keep writing this BS. Come on keep it real.

  • jason bay

    Exactly

  • jason bay

    We really can’t say that because who knows who steps up big time and who backslides but even if you are right about just those eight, added to TDA, Flores and Lagares that is 11 of the 13. Add in Wright and Granderson who will be here for a while and there you go.

    Solid offense, top notch rotation and a developing bull pen.

  • TC’s talking head

    When does the front office ever worry? They just don’t care, and that’s the problem. The offense SUCKS!!!! We are overachieving so far just like we did in 2012. Get Lowrie or promote Flores. Get rid of Valverde and promote DeGrom and/or Montero. Trade Colon, promote Thor. That would be a nice start.

  • jason bay

    Scutaro was a waiver wire guy we claimed but your right that he was a decent piece that we fumbled away for nothing.

    We nearly lost Reyes in the Alomar deal so having Scutaro would have at least made that trade a little less likely plus we don’t sign Matsui, Castillo…..

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Super 2. Why pay a few extra million for three or four starts? And trade Colon to who?

  • TC’s talking head

    After super 2 of course. Although I disagree with super 2, because I say field the best team. If waiting to promote these young guys costs you 2 or 3 games and you miss the playoffs by 2 games, then what would you think of the cheap crap ways of waiting for super 2. This franchise is worth over 2 billion. They should have a dodgers-like payroll. They shouldn’t worry over a few million. As far as Colon goes, trade him to a contender at the A.S.B. for 2 good prospects like we did with Byrd and promote a AAA S.P. to replace him until the end of the season.

  • goorru

    Sandy will never claim to be a drafting genius because he far from it. He has a pretty bad track record for drafting, ask the Padres.

  • elsid1986

    Ah 2017. 3 more years of crap. Gotta love this plan if you enjoy losing.

  • elsid1986

    Statistics show more than 50% of those guy will never amount to anything.

  • elsid1986

    You mean that didn’t pan out? What about all those Cy Young awards Generation K won.

  • elsid1986

    Plethora of Guys? LMAO. OK if you say so.

  • elsid1986

    90% of those guys will never sniff the Majors.
    And we still don’t sign IFA’s. Winners sign guys like Abreu and Puig and Chapman. Alderson signs 16 year old short stop projects for 1.5 million or so, and then pats himself on the back for giving away the biggest IFA bonus in team history.

  • mets4lyfe

    HRs are the only thing excluded from BABIP.

  • elsid1986

    Without a doubt.

  • elsid1986

    Flores will not be here. They have no faith in him as a SS and we have the great Tejada and Quintanilla. Someone should tell Alderson the definition of upgrading a position is not bringing the same crap back and hoping things get better because 1 of them went to a fat farm.

  • elsid1986

    We don’t need Tulo. Cecchini will be here in 2017. Isn’t that the new target year?
    .

  • elsid1986

    Look at the home / road splits. They are god awful at Citi Field and last time I checked they need to play 50% of their games there.

  • elsid1986

    Considering Alderson and his miniions have not had a winning season among them in god knows how long I would think it is well established they are not geniuses at anything.

  • elsid1986

    you differentiate between has been’s and never were’s?

  • Joey D.

    Hi Joe D.,

    Will take promises when it comes to spending with a grain of salt from this organization. We’ve heard words before like “priority”, “buyers” “Bourn” financial problems “resolved”, etc. too often to be fooled again.

    As far as that stuff about the line drives not falling in, of course if one goes by statistical probabilities it would be a certain that the Met organization would not be worried. After all, they would not feel it’s due to the way batters are being pitched to and fielders are thus positioned to play them, taking first strike pitches on the corners to work the count or hunt for a pitch or that hitting a ball hard is not indicative of good hitting as it is where the ball is hit to. Those factors are only concerns to those who rely on acquired knowledge and experience. As we know, Sandy only gets nervous when approached with thoughts based on “gut reactions”.

  • Mike Lloyd

    Hey Joey, hope you and MJ are well. Great response-especially about adding players. We’ve heard for awhile about ‘having the flexibility with payroll to add’ we’ve heard it for a few seasons now. I’m not buying. Maybe because I’m older and more cynical now…having the ability to trade from Pitching depth….with innings limits and injury, depth, can disappear. Fast. I hope this isint another public proclamation by the GM to get people more interested and running to the ticket window. I’ll believe a meaningful in season upgrade when I see it. For now-I see too many being prospect drunk and already trading away Colon, Murphy and CY at the deadline and, I’m more inclined to believe that will occur then the Mets ‘adding’ payroll…

  • Joey D.

    Hi Mike,

    Thanks so much. MJ is doing much better now and I guess you can say the same for me. Of course, the same back to you and yours.

    Don’t bother me when you say “I’m not buying” as it does when Sandy says he is for I believe your skepticism, like mine, is justified into believing this is nothing more than”another public proclamation”.

    I agree with you about too many being prospect drunk but I think Sandy is quite sober when he is going that route for it’s tied into that “public proclamation” as well. After all, it’s inexpensive and so unnecessary at this point.

    We’re both old enough to recognize business and the old con game when we see it.

  • Bail4Nails

    They act like our Call-ups haven’t helped us Win games so far. Kirk helped us Win some Games. Brown helped us win some games. BABIP and all these other stats are an excuse not to do anything. Bring up some fresh legs, let them spark the team a little. The only stat that really counts is WINS. It may not matter to Ownership, but to the League and to us fans it does. I guarantee you more fans will tune in to see a Campbell or a Flores get a shot, than to watch some has-been have “a good at-bat”.

  • The fan base is worried enough to cover them I guess. Law of averages says the numbers will have to get better, right??

  • Mike Lloyd

    More than tuning in-some might actually show up if Flores and Campbell were here.

  • Mike Lloyd

    Empty promises Joey-empty stadium.

  • Joey D.

    Hi Nails,

    Can tolerate losing – somewhat as long as the effort was totally sincere on the part of the organization – even if it was just run by a bunch of lunkheads. That’s how bad it has become – to actually be happy just to see this club being run with a purpose toward winning instead of payroll concentration. That would at least give us real hope that there is a plan for with the value of sports franchises going through the roof, to allow a team to flounder like this with the talent it does has shows that there is no way this ownership and it’s general manager are able to focus their fiscal resources on the team.

  • Joey D.

    Summer wishes, winter dreams, Mike.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    I agree. The Mets do not.

  • Mets Magic

    Byrd would be leading the Mets in HR and RBI’s transferring his Phillie Stats as well as up there in average. Vic Black is in a dangerous regression phase after some initial success where some never come back from and who knows what Dilson Herrera will turn into…at some point need to field NOW players that the main question is can they produce and help attain wins vs. thinking 2-5 chess moves ahead and planning on trading them…

  • Mets Magic

    It’s OK Bud Selig just looked at the Met’s ticket prices and declared, “I’ve personally looked at all the ticket prices and they are affordable. I have personally signed the Met’s fan letters as this is the best piece of marketing to get fans back I’ve ever seen. I let Ryan Braun off because he is an honest young man, not because I am biased toward the Brewers and lastly I didn’t know we were sweeping s**t into the Menomonee River from our Stadium. Once I sucked the public into paying most of what I promised to pay all, it wasn’t my fault anymore. Finally the Wilpons are the best baseball owners bar none.”

  • Peter S

    I see…so the most productive contact is meaningless. I’m not too sure about that stat then.