Is The Quest For 90 Over? The Math Says It Is.

An article by posted on May 26, 2014

alderson-sandy

“This team is now about being successful. This is about concrete expectations about what we need to do. The 90 wins is about challenge.” – Sandy Alderson

There are still 113 games left in the 2014 season, and while the Mets are only five games under .500 with a 22-27 record and sitting six games out of the National League East division lead and four and a half games out of the wildcard, the season is slipping away fast.

Without getting into the minutiae surrounding the details of the lineup, the bullpen, the hitting in clutch situations and so forth, I’ll very simply look at the win-loss totals.

The 90 win total that Sandy Alderson set as the goal prior to the season can be looked at the projected win total that would be needed to make into the playoffs. Yes, that number may shift up or down by the end of the season, but at 90 wins, you’re at the very least in playoff contention.

In order to reach that 90 win total, the Mets will need to go 68-45 for the remainder of the season. This is a .602 winning percentage over the remainder of the season.

A .602 winning percentage over the course of a full season is 97 wins.

The Mets will need to play like a 97 win team over the course of the rest of the year to be in contention.

The Mets have achieved 97 wins only five other times in their history – 1969, 1986, 1988, 1999, and 2006.

Can a team play well enough down the stretch after a weak start to make the playoffs? Of course, it’s happened before. But looking at the current team – is this team on par with any of the above mentioned Mets squads that played .600 ball or better?

Hardly.

I’m still that annoying optimistic Mets fan, but the #QuestFor90 is over. However, one can still dream, right?

MMO

About the Author ()

Roger is a lifelong Mets fan since 1981, now married with kids and still knows that there is no such thing as a bad day at the ballpark with your child. Growing up, he wanted to be either the Second Baseman for the Mets - or their statistician. Follow him at @BigMetsFan1. email him at metsfanontwitter@aol.com

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