Keith Law: D’Arnaud Will Be Rookie Of The Year

(Photo by Anthony J. Causi)

Yesterday, ESPN’s Keith Law released his annual predictions for the MLB season (Insider only). Included in those forecasts are his picks to win the major awards. Of all his selections, one will stick out to Mets fans.

NL Rookie of the Year: Travis d’Arnaud

As loaded as the AL rookie class is, the NL class is shallow, with a few guys given regular jobs but with big question marks over performance or, in d’Arnaud’s case, durability. I’ll concede that Billy Hamilton could run his way to this award, but if I’m putting money on a favorite, it’s the catcher with 20-homer power.

I was pleasantly surprised to see this selection. After his disappointing debut in 2013, many have been down on d’Arnaud. Reports of the Mets working on the 25-year old backstop’s swing wasn’t encouraging news either. However I think those factors have lead to Travis coming into 2014 both overlooked and underrated. It would be hard to believe that every major prospect ranker missed on this kid. Hopefully with some adjustments and more experience he can fulfill the expectations everyone once had for him in 2014.

Aside from this, Law also predicted an 80-82 record for the Mets, good enough for a third place finish in the NL East. He also offered this encouraging tidbit:

The New York Mets’ rotation has quietly become both good and deep; give them Matt Harvey and we could be discussing a wild-card spot, even before we talk about any of their pitching prospects contributing.

To read the rest of Law’s predictions click here (subscription required).

(Photo by Anthony J. Causi)

ya gotta believe button

  • mr1313

    I’m really pulling for this kid. If he hits it would add a big boost to the lineup. I’m a big fan of the catching position and he could quickly become my favorite player.

  • FL Met Fan Rich

    Would love to see him play for a full year without major injuries and see what he can do.

    A good year from him and with Thor coming up mid season could make the trade for R.A. look like a steal for us.

  • Charley’s Twin

    well that would be nice. However, I would be quite happy with him just staying healthy even if the numbers aren’t amazing.

  • Kirk Cahill

    What makes d’Arnaud an odd case is that he seems injury prone, yet most of his injuries are total flukes. It’s not as if he’s pulling hamstrings every time up the line. Foul balls, slides into second, etc. A lot of bad luck in play.

  • Benny

    I actually believe it will definitely be one of our players, be it d’Arnaud or one of the call ups mid-season.

  • Kirk Cahill

    Also, getting the kind of offense out of the catching position that Travis can provide can allow you to sacrifice some offense in another spot in favor of defense. Like perhaps centerfield, where Juan Lagares is fighting for his job for some ridiculous reason.

  • metsfansince64

    I worry he may have brittle bones. Breaking a bone because you got hit by a foul ball is scary. Catchers get hit with foul balls all the time.

  • Connor O’Brien

    I like the optimism with TDA. A lot of his injuries in the minors were just bad luck and I could really only see the back being a problem going forward, but even that hasn’t showed up in a while… I’m not going to label him injury prone until some pattern emerges. A broken foot and a torn knee ligament a full year apart doesn’t make him injury prone in my book.

    I’ve seen a few writers list d’Arnaud as a ROY winner, but surprisingly, I’ve also seen Syndergaard’s name come up. I’m not sure he will be up until July, but if he gets a somewhat early promotion, I could see him getting it as well.

  • Kirk Cahill

    With Dice-K, Montero and possibly deGrom in front of Thor for promotion I think the Mets will take their time, unless he is absolutely lights out in Vegas and forces their hand.

  • whoa. If he does, the Mets are at least in the WC conversation. Who kidnapped Keith Law and replaced him with a guy who doesn’t irrationally hate the Metropolitans?

  • mr1313

    Exactly and we have talked over and over about the run differential he saves in CF compared to what EY can produce. It’s boggles my mind how they won’t permanently give Lagares the starting CF spot.

  • mr1313

    Not to mention the man is proving he can hit in winter ball and in spring training. He needs a chance to prove it in regular season.

  • BronxMets

    Law is out of his mind………..WIth Harvey we make a wild card spot…….He’s nuts. This team is scoring 600 runs this year that’s it.

  • Benny

    ” If he does, the Mets are at least in the WC conversation.”

    I don’t see how you come up with that conclusion…

  • WillisReid

    Players get hit with baseballs all the time, especially when half the game is predicated on a baseball being thrown at you. TdA has had some flukey injuries, no doubt. But come on “brittle bones?” Granderson broke a bone in his hand twice last year alone, I’d be more worried about him than the guy who plays the most physically demanding position in the sport.

  • BehindTheBag

    I don’t share Law’s optimism. A whole bunch would have to go amazingly right for this team to get to 80 wins. Odds are, some things will go right, some things will go wrong, so we’ll be right there where Vegas says we will…around 72-75 wins.

    A healthy, DOMINANT Harvey (no guarantee he is that in his first year back from TJ) might be enough to push us close to .500. But we need a lot more offense to be a true playoff team, not to mention some luck in the bullpen.

  • Because that means one of the unknowns is performing very well on both sides of the ball. Throw in career average numbers from Ike and Tejada and we’re in very good shape – assuming we don’t get killed by injuries or serious underperformance elsewhere

  • mr1313

    Of course you don’t share Law’s optimism your a Mets fan.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    If I had to bet on ROY the 1st name I would say would be Baiz SS for the cubs, even though hes starting in AAA he is my pick for ROY. He should be called up April 26-28, imo. Besides biaz I would think, Wong on SL, Owings on ARZ & Hamilton on cincy would be ahead of travis. But as a met fan id love to see travis prove me wrong.

  • WillisReid

    There are enough options for 1B that I don’t think they need to count on anything from Ike to get improvement from the position overall. Adding Flores to the line up in May will help as well.

  • WillisReid

    No one’s more down on the Mets than their own fans.

  • good point. However, you must keep in mind that it is Opening Day Eve. The most pessimistic day of the year for Benny and Co

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    maybe hes had a few mimosas for breakfast

  • BehindTheBag

    I want to believe, but it’s really hard.

    An average of 2 years of excellence and 8 years of suckitude every decade during their existence is just not cutting it. That’s just a lot of sucking on a per season basis.

  • mr1313

    He did say with a healthy Harvey they would be in the WC conversation. Remember they added a playoff spot it’s not as difficult to make the playoffs as it used to be. In sports everyone gets a ribbon nowadays.

  • WillisReid

    I have no idea what to make of this team right now. April should be interesting.

  • I think Harvey isn’t even necessary for that to be a possibility with Thor, Montero and Mejia being added to an already solid rotation

  • We get .240-.250 with 25HRs from Ike, .265/.325 from Rubie (or whomever is at short), ROY performance from TDA and career averages from the rest, we are in very good shape.

  • Big Mets Fan

    I don’t think TDA will be ROY, but I’m also not going to get down on him just because he struggled after his callup in a small sample size. Plenty of players struggled terribly when they were callups before their official rookie season (like Cal Ripken). That’s not to say that Travis will become a top flight player – plenty of players that struggle when they come up never put it together. Let him play and see if he can hack it before dismissing him. He will either make it, or he won’t. If he does, great – we have a treat trade chip catching prospect behind him. If he doesn’t, we have a great catching prospect to take his place.

  • it was a metatarsal – just about the skinniest bones you have aside from the ones in your ear. Get a ball off one of those just right and it’ll break. It’s not like he broke a femur jogging after a popup

  • WillisReid

    I don’t think Ike will come close to 25 HR’s. He won’t face lefties at all, and if he stays true to what he was doing this Spring, he looks like a better hitter when not trying to hit for power. I think the 2010 version of Ike is best case scenario here.

  • MetsPedes

    Yeah it drives me crazy listening to these clowns(terry and Sandy) every time they open their filthy mouths to say that Lagares is competing for his rightful shot in CF. This is where I get reminded exactly where we’re heading.

  • those are his 162 game average numbers though I am sure every one of us will take 2010 Ike

  • Dark HelMet

    Why do people call the Mets the Metropolitans? I mean, it stems from that, but the Mets are just The Mets.

  • because it stems from that. As people call the Knicks the Knickerbockers. You answered your own question

  • BarnRat

    The good news is that we have a name in the ROY discussion; the bad news is that we have at least three in any Comeback Player of the Year discussion.

  • Benny

    Travis is just one of many pieces of the puzzle who make up the unknowns. Him performing at the level Keith Law suggests doesn’t make us a contender outright as you suggest. Ike, Tejada, Young, and even Granderson have to perform for us to be contenders.

  • WillisReid

    .260 with 18ish HR playing against RHP only?

  • Benny

    How have I been pessimistic? Where did I say the year was lost for the Mets. You literally have suggested this misconception before and I have called you out on it, and now you do it again? No matter how many times you put words in my mouth it doesn’t make it any more true, so just stop!

  • Fast Eddie

    I find myself thinking about Mets players who may hit at a .250 clip. We all know that batting .250 is nothing to brag about. But wouldn’t most of us be thrilled if TdA, CY, EYJ, Tejada, Grandy, Lagares, Duda and Davis all managed to produce at that rate this season, perhaps a tad higher? That’s how badly these guys have performed in the recent past: mediocrity in ’14 would be considered an improvement.

    Sad, very sad.

    Veloz

  • Jake Jones

    Our fanbase is onr of the worst unfortunetly

  • Connor O’Brien

    That doesn’t scare me. He just got hit in a bad spot, probably one that catchers don’t get hit on a lot.

    One broken bone doesn’t give any indication that his bones are brittle. That’s a huge leap.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    we actually IMO we have a great fan base, come on. The team stinks and we are all over the blogs even in the off season. If we had a bad fan base I would think no one would care, read about or post about the team. This team has fans that are crying out for them to improve. We aren’t ignoring them or switching to another club.

  • Connor O’Brien

    I predicted 82 wins if the team stays relatively healthy. The rotation really is going to be maybe marginally worse, but possibly better, even without Harvey.

    The offense will certainly be better with Granderson, TDA, and Chris Young.

    There is a lot to like on this team. Playoffs? No, but a run at .500 is more than possible.

  • Connor O’Brien

    When evaluating the team objectively, that shouldn’t get in the way.

    It should be about what this team has now.

  • Jake Jones

    We do have some good fans. i consider myslef a good fan. I dont expect to win 90 games but i do think we will be better than exoected and have a good future. maybe one day our fnabase will improve hopefully

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    I agree on Baez when he comes up he is going to destroy those short porches in Wrigley field.

    Another sleeper is Archie Bradley for ARZ. Corbin is done for the season(TJ surgery),Arroyo is having back problems, McCarthy is injury prone, Delgado is a ? who was ok last year but gave up a ton of HR’s. Bradley will be up in short order.

    And there is always a prospect that comes out of nowhere and tears it up.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Getting league average or above from a catcher is great. TDA could do that, plus some extra power.

  • jason bay

    I look for TDA and Lagares to solidly establish themselves as above average MLB regulars on both sides of the ball.

  • jason bay

    Baez.

  • Jake Jones

    I think many fans will be eating a sh^tload of crow when it comes to Darnaud. the kid is a player he just needs to stay healthy

  • Connor O’Brien

    Yeah I;d definitely say ROY is the least predictable award, mostly because it’s usually the players who come up in April and May that win it, not necessarily the best prospects.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    I think we will win 76-80 games. I don’t think that makes me a bad fan, just someone who knows what he sees. Not only on our team but others as well. BUT I do think next year, with the having full seasons from Harvey, Montero and synderguard we should be better. AND if these 3 GM’s we have can pull off a trade for a real #4 hitter we will be even better. But having a legit 4 hole hitter is kind of important in MLB

  • .250 with 30+ HRs is a far cry from mediocrity

  • at career average levels. Meaning, this is the expectation. Past performance is the best indicator of future performance. 162 game paces for the team is really quite solid and makes us a WC contender if TDA is putting up ROY numbers. I believe we’ve already had this conversation.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    yea him too 😛

  • huh? I am not putting any words in your mouth. You think the Mets have a chance to contend this season? Funny, most of your posts seem to indicate otherwise.

  • umm yeah? What’s the other half of the platoon doing?

  • jason bay

    Law wasn’t high on Pelfrey, Fern, Thole, Kirk, Ike, Duda, Mulvey, Guera, Urbina, Duda, Tejada, MDD, Havens, Holt, Kunz, Rodriguez, Rustich, Moviel, Vineyard, Vaughn, Niesen, Clyne, Forsyth, Shields……….

  • Jake Jones

    I never said YOU were a bad fan. i was talking about people who think this team wins 60 games and bashes them for EVERYTHING

  • WillisReid

    Not bad if Satin can duplicate 2013.

  • Rocky Thompson

    The New York basketball team nickname is the Knickerbockers. Knicks is shortened version of Knickerbockers. The New York Metropolitan Baseball Club Inc. operates a baseball team called the Mets. Mets obviously is derived from Metropolitans, BUT the nickname of the baseball team is the Mets, not Metropolitans.

  • Benny

    These “career average levels” you speak of are not guarantees and are not even correct career averages. You keep twisting career averages into 162 game averages, so that this argument can fit your pre-conceived notion. Either way Ike, Tejada, Young, and Granderson have a lot to prove since last year despite your idea that they will revert back to these “career average levels” and your hunch that they will do this is nothing more than just that, a hunch.

  • Benny

    We already had this discussion before!

    Go look at my replies to you.

    I already stated that I believe the Mets can be WC contenders with the talent we possess, but it will all fall onto Terry’s shoulders if we do or not.

  • that’s actually pretty good. 20+ HRs and a bunch of doubles with about .265 average? Yep, we’d take that out of 1b

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    I i know u didnt, just saying even though i think we could be alot better, even though i dont like the owners, gm or manager im still a big fan rootin fir my team and hope one say soon we will win another ws

  • of course they aren’t “guarantees”. In fact, I even used the term “indicator” which does not even imply that they are a given. However, since putting up career average numbers is more likely than something else happening, it seems rather ridiculous to assume that the something else is the most probably outcome.
    And yes, as you learned, averaging in stats from seasons where a player appeared in a handful games is NOT a more accurate depiction of the player’s performance than using his paces to find his “full season” numbers. Or maybe you didn’t learn that. You should have because about 5 people explained it to you in your “Niese has only pitched 700 innings over 6 years” thread.

  • mets4lyfe

    Archie Bradley’s curveball is from another universe. It’ll be a plus-plus pitch when it’s all said and done.

  • Fine – I will agree, apologize and won’t claim otherwise until I see you being pessimistic (again)

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    I dont think Mets fans question d’Arnauds ability I think its the DUR-ability thats the problem.

    When we traded for d’Arnaud everyone loved the addition, sure some were upset we traded Dickey but they never questioned his talent.

    You also cant blame fans for being worried about his struggles at the plate last year and his struggles in his sample size taste which trickled over into ST. Anyone would start to worry, its not like TDA has a track record vs. MLB pitching.

    Nonetheless the last few games have breathed a little hope back into TDA’s stock with Mets fans. No ones eating crow they want him to succeed but are a little worried. Its warranted

  • Benny

    “of course they aren’t “guarantees”. In fact, I even used the term “indicator” which does not even imply that they are a given.”

    You stated this: ” If he does, the Mets are at least in the WC conversation.”

    You didn’t give any details of how the other players need to perform.

    “However, since putting up career average numbers is more likely than something else happening, it seems rather ridiculous to assume that the something else is the most probably outcome.”

    Oh really? Well that’s funny, because last time I checked their performances from last year were no where close to these “career averages” you keep harping on about.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    If and when Collins ever decides to take Lagares out of the outhouse for young players. Or when EYjr starts to stink up the joint a la Cowgill and Baxter.

    smh@De Ja Vu all over again for Juan Lagares….HE’ll get stale on the bench and when they finally give him sporadic playing time he will struggle due to RUST and lack of PLAYING TIME!!!!

    All for getting an inferior Vet player EYjr in the lineup for a few more SB’s smh

  • Pedro’s Rooster

    Stupid Sandy, trading for guys who have hollow bird-bones. 🙂

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    Usually goes to the kid that finishes the season on fire.

    Unless of course there is a Jose Fernandez present who burns it up from beginning to end

  • Not4

    Please stop trying to cloud the issue with a fundamental truth. It minimizes the ability for others to blindly jump onto the blind negativity bandwagon. Show some decency for the love of god!

  • Travis d’Osteoporosis

  • not all his Mets hate is irrational 😉

  • Benny

    Why apologize and follow it up with an “again” as if I’m lying? If you feel I’m lying, then provide some substance to backup your claim.

    Maybe you should look up and learn the difference between a realist’s point of view vs a pessimist’s point of view, then you may see the difference.

  • that’s funny? Statistical aberrations amuse you? What IS funny is that somehow you think you have a point – that players are more likely NOT to play towards their career averages than they are TO play towards them. You also now, on several occassions, have insisted that averaging in the HRs from a season a player appeared in 15 games is somehow more valid than looking at their 162 game paces over the course of a number of seasons

  • realists don’t average in numbers from a season a person had 30 ABs and call it reality. People with agendas do that especially when the folly has been explained.

  • his playing time doesn’t have to be sporadic. He can get into 4 games a week with an even rotation of CY, EY and JL

  • true. Who cares though?

  • Benny

    The only thing stated was that the players I listed have a lot to prove. No where did I mention their statistics in any matter. If you disagree that they don’t have anything to prove, then I have a bridge to sell you. The only proven commodities on this team are Wright and Murphy.

  • Rocky Thompson

    I thought you might, but obviously I was wrong.

  • the only thing I stated is that TDA puts up ROY numbers, the Mets are in the WC conversation. The assumption being that players will play as they have over the course of their careers

  • gameball

    If he jumps out to a hot start, I hope Terry remembers to rest him once a week.

  • john q

    d’arnaud kind of got overlooked in spring training because so much attention was placed on 1b and Ruben Tejada. Then Syndegaard and Monterro got a lot of media time. Familia and Mejida got some media time. Then there was attention to Niese and Gee. Then there was attention to the new acquisitions of Granderson and C. Young and Colon. Then there was attention to Matt Harvey’s elbow etc.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    There will be no rotation.

    CY is NOT being rotated and he shouldnt be.

    Do you remember when Alderson signed CY he specifically stated the reason he and CY thinks he struggled last year was due to the A’s rotating him in and out of the lineup with the other OF.

    Alderson stated that wont be the case here in NYC because CY will receive consistent playing time as long as he produces.

    And Eric Young isnt good enough a player that you have to get him in the lineup. This is a Terry Collins thing he is a old fool. EYjr will be exposed the more time he plays. I wont be surprised if EY gets off to a hot start then falls off the map for the rest of the year. Because thats what he has done his whole career. He isnt a starter on any team

  • Benny

    No, I don’t find it funny. I find it hilarious that you believe Ike is going to hit “.250 with 25 hrs” and that Ruben or “whomever is at short” will bat “.265/.325,” so it’s just automatic that will happen?

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    I think he was overlooked in spring training because he was so bad. And there were no other options for catcher duties.

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    LMFAO! Excellent point…

    I forgot all about that and Everyday Buck…

    TC =
    Terrible
    Coach

  • Benny

    See you didn’t state that in your original comment. All you stated was that d’Arnaud being the ROY means we will be WC contenders without any details about the other player’s performance.

  • Sach

    Law has always been in Travis’ corner, higher on him than some of us. I certainly hope Law is right and some of us are wrong. The Mets in their team history have been pretty good at trading for their starting C in Grote, Stearns, Carter and Piazza. Hopefully, that trend continues with Travis.

  • gameball

    To be honest I don’t hate him as some do here. I do think he tends to ride his hot horses a little too hard, but in general it’s too easy to blame the manager for a team’s struggles. For me the bottom line is, if you believe the teams of the last few years should have won more than they did, given their personnel, then that’s on the manager. I don’t think the team has underperformed—they just haven’t been very strong teams.

  • Andrew Herbst

    d’Arnaud will be a huge key for the lineup this year if we wan to reach the 90 win mark.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Exactly, although I’d say someone called up in July doesn’t have much of a chance, which is why I see Syndergaard having only a slight shot at it. There have only been a handful of players called up after mid-June to ever win it.

  • If you were going to make a bold prediction this would probably qualify. Law has the Mets winning 80 games?

    Meh, Hernandez thinks they will win 82 or more games.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    With him hitting the way “scouts” said he would, this team can be better. However, how can one be optimistic after the awful St he had?
    Somehow, I do agree with law here, based on the fact that he’ll get to play from day one and showcase his talent, I believe TDA will be rookie of the year.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Mnj, you?? We have them at around 76-80

  • Joey D.

    Attached is the link to Mike Francesa’s interview with Keith Hernandez on Friday. The portion regarding Travis begins at the 6:30 mark.

    Keith says he is going to hold off judgement and says Travis might still need to be sent down to the minors and if so, that is not so terrible because it took Keith himself three years to get himself going in the big leagues. He did talk about that swing and the problems that is causing him to foul off pitches that should otherwise be driven. He believes Travis is never going to be a 20 home run guy but has the potential to be a 12 to 15 home run hitter – especially in this ball park – and should concentrate on being a line drive hitter and take advantage of Citi field instead. But he says we will have to wait and see and it’s too early to pass judgement.

    He also did not understand all this talk about Tejada coming in out of shape – he said Ruben is in great shape. As far as Lagares, he said the problem was that he was “thinking” too much when he came to the plate and that he feels this is dangerous for all young hitters – that they are not yet polished enough to be able to take so many pitches and be more selective on what pitch they want to look for. Let them swing, let them learn and then they will be able to develop that type of discipline.

    He also said one could throw out the stats when it came to Gee for what was most important to him was that when he got into a jam he was not looking over his shoulder at the bullpen.

    Overall Keith thinks this is a better team than last year.

    http://newyork.cbslocal.com/audio/19-mike-francesa/

  • We? I don’t know who we is. As for me I don’t have any numbers. My expectations are for them to make the playoffs.

  • metsfan79

    This 100 times

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    By we I meant most of the people who aren’t drinking sandys plan juice, and excuse me, did you say playoffs?!?!
    Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah
    I’m done with you

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Joey d, good work as usual. I have seen predictions all over the place, not in one I have seen the mets finishing above 500. Other than some idiots and SL who somehow are predicting 86+ wins and others even playoffs which id laughable

  • didn’t know I had to state that guys would play as they are statistically likely to do.

  • “I think they’re an above-. 500 team. I don’t know how much above .500, but anything less to me would be a disappointing year.” – Keith Hernandez
    http://nypost.com/2014/03/29/serbys-sunday-qa-with-voices-of-sny/

  • that sounds like a rather probable set of stats out of first base with a platoon with Satin. What I find “hilarious” is that you think the most statistically likely outcome is somehow unlikely yet you take great umbrage at being called a pessimist despite your views that the worse case, more unlikely scenario is bound to occur.
    And yes, again, I think Ruben is most likely to play to his career numbers and if he isn’t the starter it is because a more offensively gifted SS is playing in his place

  • who cares that people refer to the Mets as the Metropolitans I mean. Hell, Keith calls them the “Metsies” all the time and that is far more annoying and that’s being broadcast to millions of people

  • Alex68 thinks above 500 means more than 500 wins. He thinks he’s a genius for noting that this is impossible while everyone else keeps chasing this elusive dream

  • as you are supposed to on Opening Day Eve. Don’t let them get you down, Jerz

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    At least he didnt use the word playoffs like you did.
    82-80 is acceptable to some people I guess. Me?! I thought this was the year no?! Apparently not since we’re aiming to be a 500 team at best

  • TexasGusCC

    We give a crap. How about them Cleveland fans? Playoff team finished last in attendance.

  • Ha! No worries about that happening. I already knew what Alex was going to say before he said it. He wouldn’t be Alex68 if he said anything else.

  • Taskmaster4450

    Add Lo Duca on that list.

  • Taskmaster4450

    +1 Leroy although I am not as down on EYJ as you are. One this team, he is a 4th OF…that is all. For some reason Alderson mistake #1 and #2 believes.EY deserves playing time.

    Absolutely sickening.

  • Taskmaster4450

    Ride his hot horses?

    Collins does the exact opposite. A guy like Lagares will have 3 hits and be on the bench the next day.

    Unless you are a favorite of Collins, like Murphy and Ike, playing time is sporadic.

  • Taskmaster4450

    That is how teams suddenly appear out of nowhere and get into contention.

    A couple of those Comeback Player of the Year guys return to form and suddenly your lineup/pitching staff looks a lot different. An overlooked aspect of the Red Sox success last year was the fact that guys who had terrible 2012 suddenly returned to form.

  • if TDA turns into PLD at the plate, I think we’ll all be quite happy. Based on what the scouts have said, he sounds like a very similar hitter with a little more power. Yes please!

  • Joey D.

    Hi Fearless Leader,

    Thanks as always.

    If one listens to the entire interview, notice there was nothing referred to in terms of what the metrics and the advanced stats indicated? Keith talked specifically in terms of what he observed and only what one who understands baseball at the highest level could decipher with such authority. That understanding comes from the wisdom not built up from the analytical world of probabilities but from the real world of unique accumulated empirical knowledge and insight which leads to many a gut reaction” that cannot be explained in equations but results in the formulation of well thought out baseball decisions that one can learn to make by being between the lines and not being in front of computer monitor – you know, the “wisdom” that makes our statistically oriented general manager “nervous”.

    This is what happens when one who believes he knows more about the game than those who came before him because he understands probabilities is put in charge.

    No need to quantify what our former first baseman had to say, either – he knew what he was talking about.

  • jason bay

    Attendance picks up the year after a team makes the post season and drops a year after it tanks.

  • Metropolitan

    Does Keith Hernandez realize that Travis is 25? He has been in 515 minor league games? Does Keith realize that he was in like 420 minor league games in his career and was up for good in the majors when he was like 22?The truth is TdA does not need more seasoning he needs to start to perform and now.

  • Chris

    Vegas has the Mets at 75 wins. I am taking the under. I think 73. They did nothing to improve. At best they run in place. Big whoop.

  • Eyeball

    I agree and actually had to look this up to prove this is not crazy.

    The Mets have 5 ‘regulars’ who have actually played 1 or more complete seasons (150+ games). Below are the 162 game averages for their careers:

    Davis – .242/.334/.434/.768 25HR/72R/80RBI/3SB
    Murphy – .290/.333/.424/.757 10HR/74R/70RBI/11SB
    Wright – .301/.382/.506/.888 26HR/101R/103RBI/22SB
    CYoung – .235/.315/.431/.746 24HR/81R/73RBI/20SB
    Grandy – .261/.340/.488/.828 30HR/106R/83RBI/17SB

    Between those 5 positions (those are based on 162 game averages, so we’re assuming health + some production from subs), that’s 115HR, 434R, 409RBI. If the other 4 positions (SS, C, OF, P + any contributions by DH/PH/PR) score 214 runs (not unrealistic – last year was 209), we will be at 648 (4 runs per game), which is 29 more than last year.

    In 2013, the Dodgers scored 649. The Pirates scored 634. The Braves scored 688. The reason all three won 88+ games was pitching – they all allowed less than 600 runs. The Mets allowed 684.

    A better, more consistent offense would be nice, but the pitching is key in 2014.

  • gameball

    Yeah, I was thinking more of his use of the bullpen.

    I get what you’re saying but that can also be a function of trying to work matches and put young guys in the best position to succeed and not get overexposed while they’re learning the league.

    We’ll see how Lagares is used this season. I think he belongs in the field.

  • MiqueMetsFan

    I agree with Keith totally. I have never seen TD as a 20 -25 homerun type player. Keith hit it right on the head. He needs to focus on hitting linedrives to all fields. Some ball will go out some won’t but that’s the kind of hitter he needs to be.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    The Mets are so hard to handicap. There are pieces on this team that can make it an above .500 team and a dark horse contender if they produce. I feel there is almost no middle ground. Granderson will either be a major asset or a Bay like liability. D’Arnaud will either prove to be the big league catcher we have been sold on or a backup. Davis or Duda will have a resurgence or 1B will be a black hole. If these three positions are healthy and productive plus Wright plays 150 games we could be a surprise.

  • Joey D.

    Hi Metropolitan,

    I was thinking that too except that now that we see there are problems with his swing when it comes to facing major league pitching, perhaps he needs to return to the minors to work on it?

    Just a guess on my part.

  • everybodysbuddy

    I’m usually very optimistic this time of year, but there is more doubt this year than ever. Is it because I spend too much time reading the negativity in these blogs? And I wish I had more confidence in TC to get the most out of this roster. Like NC Mets fan said, they are hard to handicap. And I will state the obvious in that TC should know better than I as far as who should play and how much. I don’t feel it though when I hear about young talent like Lagares maybe not getting the opportunity to develop with regular work. I’m hoping he knows better, it just doesn’t feel right.

  • piazza4aday

    …from your lips to Gods ear…
    TDA has shown us nothing to get excited over since he has been here. Not one “flash” or some hint at all the “scouts praise”…defensively meh…offense even less so. Man i hope we are all wrong…this guy has me liking Recker more and more.

  • Fast Eddie

    Agreed. I can see Granderson accomplishing that; maybe Ike. But I wouldn’t bet on the rest of them to go that long, that often.

    Veloz

  • if the two of them accomplish that this year, we got something special going on

  • WillisReid

    Nice work dude.

  • metstastic

    Speaking of ROY. Does anybody else think the way they consider guys “rookies” is messed up. I mean, lets say Thor comes up after super 2 and pitches lights out. Most won’t consider him for ROY because he only played less than half a year. Yet next year, he will have played too many games to be considered a “rookie” anymore. Same thing happened with Harvey and Wheeler.

  • Keith Law is starting to fall in love with the Mets. This is a sign of the apocalypse.

  • NY CITI

    If Harvey doesn’t go down the money spent on Colon would have gone to Drew.

  • oleosmirf

    consistent playing time does not equal playing every single game. There are plenty of AB to go around especially given EY’s ability to play 2B competently.

    While we all can agree EY should not play everyday, he should be in the starting lineup at least 50% of the time.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    For the first time I am happy Harvey went down.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    This is a make or break season for Travis. Plawecki may be ready as early as next year. Additional seasoning in the minors will do little to help Travis. He needs to prove it in the bigs with his bat. He doesn’t carry enough D to warrant being a backup if he doesn’t hit

  • Mets Fan in NC

    Travis, Granderson, SS and 1B are all question marks. If we get offense from three of the four and league average D from SS we will surprise provided Wright and Murph stay healthy.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    Small sample sizes aside lots of guys hit 200 and below during ST.
    Good news is players didn’t “waste” being hot in March or Bad news we have some declining or not very good hitters. I hope it is #1.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    The 86 team had a lot of platoons. It’s not always a bad thing IF the manager knows how to read matchups. Having Juan play in situations he is better able to succeed will help his career growth and confidence at the plate. EY will improve his OBP this year fairly considerably if he just lays down a few more bunt hits

  • Mets Fan in NC

    CY being on a 1 year contract is a little complicated
    In the beginning of the season he will play regularly. If he rakes and we don’t contend he is trade bait. If we contend and he doesn’t hit he is the 4th outfielder. If we contend and he hits I am dreaming 🙂

  • Mets Fan in NC

    Mets fans have been burned repeatedly by claims this or that guy is going to be a star. I am of the view now show me on the field. So far I don’t see a future all star…I really hope I am wrong

  • Mets Fan in NC

    FE
    In search of the ever elusive OBP Mets strike out a crazy rate. In ST players took three called strikes in a row. Swing the bat…make the pitchers respect you as a hitter first…they will then try to be finer around the plate and OBP will increase. OBP never increases from the approach the Mets use which is take take take. They make it easy for the pitcher to pound the zone early and breaking pitches out of the zone with two strikes.

  • Andrew Herbst

    Yep. Those are all huge question marks. We need to have 3 of those 4 question marks hit.

  • lareplus

    yeah, I hope Tejada finds his power stroke this year. . .I know he’s no Dave Kingman, but. . . ( jk ) I do think that a trade for a shortstop will happen by mid season. Too many teams need pitching. .

  • jdon48

    a rookie catcher’s first duty when he comes up is to learn the league defensively. That is almost a full time job. If you have issues with your stroke you probably cannot devote a lot of time to it. But that was last year. If he does not produce decently this year I would start worrying

  • jdon48

    this is a very negative blog. but I must say, until Syndergaard and Montero get here, nothing holds my interest. Maybe Wheeler. I do not like watching Neise or Gee pitch. Not saying they are bad, I just find them boring. I suppose there is Wheeler. the bullpen though, will destroy a lot of the starters’ good work. The lineup basically stinks.

  • jdon48

    Lagares does not pull the ball well. A lot of young guys learn to pull over time. He has size but not that much power. If he learns to handle the inside pitch he will be good. His instincts are excellent.

  • jdon48

    I would hold off on trading Plawecki if I were the mets. Plawecki is also a doubles guy but hard to strike out. He looks like a hitter. Something Travis has not looked like yet

  • Metropolitan

    I will agree with you