2014 Player Projections: David Wright

wright

If I had to pick one position player from the National League East to anchor a lineup for a year, David Wright may just be my pick. While on the field, the 31 year-old had a monster 2013 season, one that was cut short by a pesky hamstring injury. Wright fell short of 500 plate appearances for only the second time in his career, but still managed to hit 18 home runs and steal 17 bases, as well as put up a slash line even better than his 2012 version.

Wright is not going anywhere. 2013 was his best season, pound-for-pound, since 2008, even better than last season. While his totals are deceiving, he hit more home runs per plate appearances than 2012 and would have hit three more had he stayed on the same pace and received the same number of plate appearances.

Besides his hamstring injury, which hasn’t resurfaced, Wright left no doubts about his 2014 season. Almost every facet of his game was as good as its ever been. His power is back and about as good as it’s going to get with Citi Field’s dimensions. His ISO, a measure of power (SLG-BA) was .207 in 2013, 21 points higher than the previous year and the highest it has been since 2010.

With the glove, Wright couldn’t match what he did in 2012, at least according to the metrics. His 17.4 defensive runs above average in 2012 was most likely a statistical anomaly and a product of the sheer number of innings Wright manned the third base slot. In 2013, he was 5.4 runs above average, still better than his typical career numbers, especially given the smaller sample size. Either way, it’s safe to say he is probably a better fielder than he was at the beginning of his career, as evidenced by both the defensive metrics and the video.

This year should be an interesting one for Wright. I honestly don’t see the fear of his getting injured. Really, his probability in his prime, having only two completely unrelated major injuries in his career, of getting hurt is the same as the average player. Two injuries in three years? Maybe I would reluctantly put the “injury prone” tag on him if I could see a correlation between the injuries, but I just can’t. Obviously it’s impossible to project injuries which is why this projection series doesn’t do it, but the odds of Wright getting hurt again are not especially high.

While on the field this year, Wright is likely going to have another season close to his 2012 and 2013 campaigns. There are no danger signs with Wright here, no real indicators that he’s destined for a sharp drop in production. His BABIP last season at .340, although high for a typical player, is right on his career numbers, as was his home run per fly ball rate.

The most most direct indicator for Wright has been his strikeout numbers. When he has struggled, it has been while his strikeout rate was high. The past two seasons, he has approached the level of the pre-Citi Field David Wright in this regard, punching out in 16.1% of his trips to the plate, down from 24% in 2010. We are witnessing Wright return to his peak production levels, even with some external factors limiting some of his numbers. As the following chart from Fangraphs will show you, while Wright is streaky, he is averaging a much better strikeout rate than he has in the past.

wright ks

If Wright can keep this up, his decline should be a slow and gradual one. If he descends into his old ways, it won’t be so sow. However, the past two years have given no real indication that this will happen, so Wright continuing this trend is a good bet.

Finally, to the projections. The Steamer, Oliver, and ZiPS systems all have Wright in a sharp decline, and it’s easy to see why. For one, the age curve on these systems doesn’t fit all players. For durable players like Wright, the decline will be much less steep than what the computer projections tend to say. In addition, the defensive metric trend of the past two years, combined with the age, may lead the computers to think that he is going through a decline. However, as we mentioned before, the defensive metrics from two years ago, although Wright was fantastic in the field, are an overestimation. 2013 was more of a correction, which is why the systems see a decline in that category, which brings down his WAR significantly. Steamer has a +2.4 runs above average mark on defense for Wright net year, while Steamer has -0.8 runs and ZiPS at +2.9. I’m certainly taking the over on this one.

Overall, Wright is on a path that will please Mets fans this year. This may be the annual spring optimism talking, but the stats point towards another great year for the captain as his team inches toward playoff contention.

2014 Projection

650 PA  ·  23 HR  ·  .310/.395/.505  ·  25 SB

 11.0 BB%  ·  16.5 K%  ·  7.5 fWAR

mmo

About Connor O'Brien 312 Articles
Connor O'Brien is a second-year economics student in the Rutgers University Honors College, a lifelong Mets fan, and an editor here at MetsMerized Online. He embraces a sabermetric point of view in his articles, but doesn't believe this conflicts with scouting or player development. Follow him on Twitter @connor_obrien97
  • RyanF55

    Well, I know i’ll take those numbers.

  • shouldaswung

    Minus the steals. He doesn’t need to be running so much. Just take the extra base occasionally and run the basepaths well

  • Zalmen

    Well running is part of his game
    So why not

  • shouldaswung

    Because of the back and hamstring concerns, obviously. Wright stealing bases adds little value for this team. He needs to hit for contact and drive runners in, on offense. His speed asset is streching in-between singles into doubles and running the bases well, in my opinion.

    I also don’t care about the HR as much as others. I’d rather see Wright with 18 HR and 45 doubles over 25 HR and 30 doubles (less contact, more strikeouts for the power).

  • Alex68

    LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! What a joke!!!!
    “2013 was his best season, pound-for-pound, since 2008”
    OH MY GAAAAAAAAAWD!!!!!!! Are you being serious here!?? wow… you guys and your OBP are ridiculous…. anchor a lineup for a whole year?!?!? you DO realize we’ve been one of the WORST offensive teams in baseball right!?
    Let me tell you something about Mr Wright, if there’s a guy that cares more about his stats than him go and find him. this guy is the ultimate stat padder for sabergeeks to drool over him (Case in point). the guy DID nothing special last year and somehow, the author of this article calls his best season since 2008? how are 18 HR and 58 RBI someone’s who is supposed to be productive best season at anything!? did you know this man had ZERO, 0, NADA, NILL home run with RISP last year!? did you notice that at all!? i will never get the type of love this man gets for his past years… everything with him it’s an if…
    He’s been hurt the past 3 years, someone else would’ve been called injury prone, wright gets a pass…
    His numbers suffered the past 3 years, that’s because he didn’t play enough games, well, so he is injury prone, Nooo, you just hate david wright….
    Stat padder and not a winner, never has been a leader and if anything, he’s proven this year he’s more of a phony and a shill than anyone ever thought of..
    Last 3 years, this man has average 292 18 71 yet, somehow we paid him for 8 more years to be less than that… 23 HR is the projection!? based on what!?!?! he hasn’t hit 23+ since 2010, you know, 4 years ago, never mind the RBI since who cares about being productive, yet, he’s getting paid to be productive, or HITS, or runs etc…
    as long as this pad statter when games don’t mean SH** gets his numbers, who cares about wins and losses right new breed of mets fans!? you’ve got to be kidding me… this guy is on a full on decline dive and all of the sudden his numbers are gonna reapear again!? and please, don’t give me the “he had nobody” protecting him bs either, in 2012 Ike Davis was on FIRE in the second half and he disappeared, last year he had Byrd and a full month of Buck, yet this man had 58 RBI… 58!!!!! for $20 million per year going forward, he better give me something better than that…
    2014 projection!? 295 18 79 at best!

  • Snuffleupagus

    Good write up. I think those numbers are doable. Though as shouldaswung said..it might not be the worst thing for him to run a bit less.

    The only concern I’d have is the injuries. As you said, the “injury prone”/always missing time talk might be a bit much at this stage since we are really just talking about two big injuries…two is not particularly frequent (it’s just that the injuries he’s had have been rather severe). But he also has been hurt and out for extended time in the prior two STs. Granted it’s ST and meaningless so missing games there doesn’t really matter…maybe he’d have played it if was the regular season and we wouldn’t have heard about the injuries. But it’s somewhat concerning from just the overall injury angle. That’s 4 injuries he was shut down for awhile with in the last 3 years.

    But anyway, performance wise, Wright has been great. And I think those projections from ZiPS and such are a bit low b/c 2011 is still being given quite a bit of weight.

  • Alex68

    by the way, he’s averaging 123 games per season the last 3, less than “injury prones” Reyes and Ellsbury… but no, one shouldn’t point out Wright’s decline numbers and his injuries either, when it comes to him, double standard is in full effect…
    18 HR and 71 RBI avg for last 3 years, but hey, some people don’t care about that, or wins and losses, his OPS is 860 so somehow, that’s good enough.. or his OBP is 378 which is awesome! yay! mind you, he gets on base for one of the worst offensive team in baseball so he can average 70 runs scored per season since 2011… go figure.

  • Alex68

    Again Reminder, 0, ZERO, NADA, NILL, NULL HOME RUN with RISP last season… isn’t that amazing!? we should’ve traded this guy after his “trying to get paid” 2012 season when his value was an all time high…

  • Connor O’Brien

    Two injuries == injury prone

  • Snuffleupagus

    LOL this post is an example of why they shouldn’t have gotten rid of the downvote. If you can’t understand that there is more to good performance than just RBI than I don’t know what to tell ya. And why is “HR with RISP” so precious? If there is a runner in scoring position you don’t need a HR to drive him in.

    And how does Wright show himself to only care about his stats and stat padding?

  • MetsfanInParadise

    If anyone had doubts that you’re a Hamels, Alex, you’ve laid them to rest. What the he!! is a “stat padder?” Are you saying there are guys who DON’T drive in the run when they have the chance? Has anyone ever heard him whine or complain? If anything, he’s TOO accepting of his circumstances, which lends a tiny amount of credibility to the accusation of shill. Some may find your rants amusing but I’m sure there are more who are turned off and this site gets fewer hits as a result. I know I fall into that category. Anyone, including you, can cherry-pick stats to support a point. That doesn’t imply credibility. Your posts are a waste of peoples time

  • mad met

    I’m a big David wright fan and even I am laughing .come on all the guys and David is your number one really

  • Connor O’Brien

    The rest is so absurd I’m not going to respond right now.

  • Alex68

    Sabermetricians have ruined the joy of debate when comparing a player… smh.. it’s amazing… take back 2012, wright’s best season since 2008 i guess, somehow he was up to par with the likes of Miguel Cabrera who won the Triple Crown, Braun who was juicing up, Beltre who was GG, hit 36 hr and drove 100+ runs, and even Mccutchen…. smh…

  • Alex68

    123 games per season since 2011 …. you’re telling me if it was someone else they wouldn’t be called injury prone!? whether it’s been 2 injuries or not he’s missed a significally amount of time, oohhh, and nvm the steady decline he’s had since 2010… please …. he got paid, he’s the best player on a bad team, so he knows he won’t get pitched to, so he’s padding his stats with walks! laughable projection as usual…

  • Destry

    Well, lets see. Tejada hit .150/.200/.250 last season, and Ike hit .200/.300/.350, Buck hit .200/.250/.375, Lagares .250/.275/.350 Was there anyone on base last year when he was hitting? If there was, he certainly didn’t get anything to hit. Why do think Byrd got fastballs down the middle all season? Because they pitched around Wright to get to him.

  • Alex68

    IDK, ask him, beningno was interviewing him one time, and he mentioned some numbers wright had but he wasn’t sure, this was back in 2008 when he was leaving a ton of runners on base and hitting 243 with RISP and wright corrected beningno with the right numbers, that struck me as odd because we’re in the middle of the season and he’s concern about his numbers!? ever since i started paying attention to the guy and saw him for what he was ever since, a good player who post good numbers when hiding behind great hitters, as unclutch as they come and not a winning baseball player imo…

  • Destry

    Connor, Great write up as usual. Could be a bit optimistic, but I like your optimism. He’s gonna have a good year either way. I think he gets a few more pitches to hit this year with Grandy hitting behind him instead of Ike.

  • RyanF55

    Can you provide a translation guide for your comments for whatever language it is you use.

  • Alex68

    Hahahahaha, same with Ike Davis in 2012 right!? excuses, excuses, excuses…. never in my life i’ve heard of one player get so many excuses when things don’t go accordingly to his fans… smh… here’s where WRIGHT exceels, when the team is either ahead or behind by 5+ runs, this were his stat padding numbers:

    300 PA 263 AB 88 HITS 12 HR 40 RBI 990 OPS

    Sounds to me, that when the game DON’T matter either way, he becomes BETTER!
    stop with the excuses….

  • Alex68

    Sigh….

  • SRT

    Just SMH.

  • Sunshine

    Hearsay and Ipse dixitism…not a good way to prove the point you are trying to make…LOL

  • SRT

    Same here!

  • Destry

    I also really like how you stopped at 3 years. It conveniently leaves out 2009 & 2010 in which Reyes played 33 & 133 games, while Wright played 157 & 144. Over the last 5 years Wright has averaged 134 games/season while Reyes has averaged 109. Reyes is way more injury prone, and it isn’t even close.

  • I just can’t be optimistic with our lineup that just drops off a cliff below Granderson unless 5000 ‘ifs’ come true. If their selected 1st baseman finds something offensively that many of us think doesn’t exist. If D’Arnaud shows the potential that may or may not be there at the major league level. If their other outfielder(s) manage to reach their optimal offensive levels. If we just ignore and forget about Tejada. If Collins doesn’t screw it all up with stupid decisions and questionable lineup changes. Too many ‘ifs’ but we’ll see soon enough.

  • Snuffleupagus

    LOL so defending himself and/or just being aware of his stats once in an interview with a buffoon 6 years ago means he only cares about numbers?

    And if Wright doesn’t qualify as a great hitter nobody on this team in this last decade does either. (Save for what a guy like Piazza did in his earlier years before the last decade)

  • Alex68

    Yeah, that’s like me saying how reyes from 2004-2008 average 154 games per season…. come on… it’s the double standard when it comes to him…

  • Alex68

    Bunch of wright cheerleaders and excuse makers…

  • oleosmirf

    Sounds about Wright to me 🙂

  • Sort of off topic…

    Here is a cool data driven article on whether there is any connection of spring training performance to performance of the regular season.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-spring-training-matters/

  • Connor O’Brien

    Two unrelated injuries. Period.

  • Destry

    The simple fact is that over the course of their careers Wright has been more durable, and at the time that the decision needed to be made, Reyes was in the midst of going on the DL virtually every season. For a player that relies on his legs for him to be at the top of his game, you don’t give out $100mil long term contracts to those type players, because he won’t be as fast as he ages. His D is already is severe decline, and he only had 15 SBs last year. Murphy had 8 more SBs to put into context.

  • Matlack

    Spot on, Connor. Let’s hope he gets those PAs. I’ll take a 900 OPS anytime in today’s game, even if it means ONLY 23 HRs. The SBs may be a skooch high; they shouldn’t encourage him to run that much.

  • Benny

    Well in the NL East there are four anchor-type players:

    Wright
    Stanton
    Freeman
    Zimmerman

    I would choose Stanton, but I guess that’s just me…

  • Destry

    OK. He hits in a terrible lineup with no protection, no one on base, and somehow still manages to put up ridiculous numbers in arguably the toughest park to hit in baseball.

  • NewYorkMammoths
  • Destry

    Stanton’s numbers last year didn’t compare to Wright’s. Bryce Harper isn’t an anchor player?

  • Hotstreak

    Wright is a borderline HOF but probably fall short like Mattingly and Dale Murphy. But Wright is MAY BE wrong for the Mets going forward.. If we can lose with him we can lose without him. Yes we should worship prospects instead of our idol. This is 180 degree turn from my King Tut post.

  • Alex68

    How dare you!?!? How dare you go against the writer and his pick of David Allen Wright!? Didn’t you know he’s the best player on earth!? he posted a high WAR and had a high OPS despite hitting only 18 and driving 58 runs last year… he’s awesome!

  • Benny

    “Stanton’s numbers last year didn’t compare to Wright’s.”

    Still doesn’t change the fact that I believe Stanton is a better player. It’s just my opinion though, which I’m not basing off one year of play, a injury-plagued one at that.

    ” Bryce Harper isn’t an anchor player?”

    I wouldn’t call Harper an anchor player just yet. I would point to two years in the league more for my exclusion of him, but he will make my list probably after this season.

  • Alex68

    Please don’t do this HOF crap… he’s NOT a HOF… at some point, a HOF has got to be considered the best at what he does… come one… stop this nonsense and the disrespect of Mattingly by comparing him to wright… Mattingly was >>>>>>>>>>>>> better than Wright will ever be…

  • Alex68

    Ridiculous numbers!? what’s so ridiculous about hitting 18 HR and having 58 RBI? stop this please…. you’re looking more and more like a cheerleader than anything else… stop making up excuses for god’s sake…

  • Benny

    Thank God that is a waist up picture. I’m scared to see below the waistline, at least in Cerrone’s case.

  • Personally I would choose Freeman but …. That can’t be right? I thought I was a Wright cheerleader because I think he’s our best player and has been for years and is a top 3b.

  • EzRider

    As much as i love Wright i would take Freeman. Younger with great defense and bat who should become a great #4 hitter.

  • Alex68

    Lmao, he posts ridiculous numbers: 18 hr 58 rbi

    My ohhh my, how the tables have turned…. smh, what a shame…

  • Benny

    I was actually leaning towards Freeman as well, but he has a little more to prove in my book. Last year was his breakout season, and I’m expecting for him to stay around those numbers, either way he was a close second to my choice of Stanton.

  • Benny

    I like Freeman too, a very close second to my choice of Stanton.

    “That can’t be right? I thought I was a Wright cheerleader because I
    think he’s our best player and has been for years and is a top 3b.”

    Huh? o.0

  • Just laughing at the perception that if you think Wright is a good player and one of the top 3b you are labeled a cheerleader. Well he is a Met so of course I cheer for him.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    ESPN ranks Wright the second best 3B in baseball, up from no. 4 last year, for what it’s worth.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/bbtn100_top3B/ranking-top-10-third-basemen-mlb-2014

  • I think in some ways Stanton still has a lot to prove too. He’s really good but he still hasn’t became the dominant force that everyone expects him to year in and year out.

  • That’s most likely where I would place him too. I could go with Beltre and Wright as 2a and 2b but then you have to factor in ballpark more.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Lineup protection is just so important. People keep calling it an “excuse,” but you can’t really ask the guy to play with Ike Davis and his .200 BA behind him the way he did with Beltran and Delgado behind him. It’s just not logical.

    Same goes for RBIs with Tejada instead of Reyes.

  • Bromancer

    “…as his team inches toward playoff contention”. I’d say “inches”, as lame as it sounds, is optimistic. Less debatable is that David’s best years are probably behind him. At this point, David and his big second generation contract are part of the problem. This team simply has too many holes to fill, and precious few ways in which to fill them. Of course, he’s not going anywhere, because he’s the white knight of our desperate marketing strategy, but the smart baseball play continues to be moving him while he still holds significant value.

  • I try not to look at lineup protection that much because while logical, stats don’t really back up a difference. Kind of like clutch.

  • New folks, just ignore Alex68 on this thread. Having Connor write an article about David Wright is the equivalent of a nuclear warhead going off in Alex’s head. He just can’t help it.

    Joe can you develop a drunk tank specifically for Connor’s posts?

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Well, I can’t say I’ve sat down and looked at stats, but I think it’s pretty safe to say having a guy hitting .300 behind you and a guy hitting .200 behind you makes a big difference.

    Still comes down to ability, but you can’t hit pitches you don’t get.

  • It seems based on every study that it doesn’t really matter. I know that seems illogical but that’s what they show.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    I’ll take your word for it. But, IMO, if we “factor in ballpark” because it makes it more difficult to hit for power, I don’t see why we should discount the types of pitches you see as dictated by the guy behind you.

    I mean, if Wright sees tons of breaking stuff because they’re not afraid to walk him with Ike behind him, that means less balls to pull, less home runs, etc.

    I think we can agree Wright is a very good 3B with lots to prove this season.

  • Bromancer

    Relax, Matt; nobody’s going to take your ball.

  • QueensRussell

    Alex, you’ll always be my MMO hermano through thick and thin. Hagiography and detractions concern DAW aside, how about we say that we are united in hoping he has a great season?

    LGM!!!

  • NewYorkMammoths

    Exactly! It looks like he’s about to pop it.

  • CJM

    Stanton easily, of course. I think we are going to see Bryce Harper break out this year, though, and perhaps push his way into the conversation.

  • But it should also increase his OBP dramatically in theory.

  • Alex68

    He opened one up just for me…. whether it’d be new or old people, i speak the truth about wright, people still in 2014 can’t accept the fact he’s a good player, not the GODSEND some think he is

  • Alex68

    But wait, when Ike Davis was on FIRE in the second half of 2012 and Wright disappeared, the excuse was he was tired of carrying the team… it’s always an excuse for him when his numbers aren’t as good… he’s a streaky hitter who’ll be on fire one month, then be a ghost the next… and unclutch as they come, i’d trust ruben tejada in crunch time over him…

  • Hotstreak

    DW is over hyped many but under appreciated by you. With that said he should have been traded the same year Reyes left.

  • Alex68

    Hey, i am all for it, but it’s beyond ridiculous to even say that a player making $20 million per year has a tremendous season when his numbers are ranked in the 20th when it comes to 3B in the league last year… come on…

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    You would take Ruben Tejada over David Wright with the game on the line?

    Wow.

  • Alex68

    Hotstreak, Wrong.. i appreciate the guy, i say he’s a good player and a good kid all the time… but people in here compare him to HOF all the time and that bothers me… the double standard and the excuses thrown in his defense are just insane…

  • http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-lineup-protection-look-like/

    There’s a lot out there. If you start to type in does lineup … Protection exist is the first thing to come up.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Cool. Thanks.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    A guy who says he’d rather have Ruben Tejada than David Wright with the game on the line needs an insane asylum, not a drunk tank.

  • Alex68

    I said back in june 2008 he was unclutch as hell….. well… been Right ever since….

  • mets4lyfe

    It’s incumbent on Wright to lay off pitches and take his walks when he has no “protection”.

    Wright had a mediocre 2nd half in 2012 when Ike Davis was posting a .888 OPS.

    the notion of ‘line-up protection’ is more or less a myth. It’s just an excuse made up for the hitter’s lack of discipline at the plate for not getting pitches in the K-zone to hit.

  • mets4lyfe

    .300/.370/.480 with 20 HRs.

  • mets4lyfe

    Stanton changes the whole complexion of a line-up more so than Wright. Stanton easily.

  • Hotstreak

    Alex68 DW is better than Gil Hodges who I saw play. Better in stats that is but not better in impact. Of course Gil Hodges had an all star team in the early and mid 1950’s Bklyn Dodgers. DW has nobody since really when Delgado got a career ending injury. All stars can be boarder line HOF without being superstar which DW is not. Ask Fred Wilpon.

    I maintain DW should have been traded.

  • Alex68

    Excuses, Excuses and more excuses… it even was Howard Johnson’s fault for whenever he was struggling… it’s been that way since 2008 when he struck out against the cubs on that 9th inning man on 3rd with no out game…

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Doesn’t really change the insanity of your statement.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Yeah, it’s up to the player but really it’s lose lose. If he doesn’t swing and takes his walks, they’ll point out a lack of hits and home runs, like Alex does. If he tries to get those hits and doesn’t, he’s “unclutch.”

  • MetsfanInParadise

    Well he’s just an ipse dix

  • MattSzat

    If you remove Wright, the little structure that this team has left crumbles.
    Worst thing to come out of this sabrmetric era, is people forget the importance of intangibles. Do these intangibles make up for the price of his contract? probably not.
    but are they invaluable to the young players coming through the organization? absolutely.
    He’s already under contract, and he’s not getting traded. So sometimes you need to take a step back from analyzing every single detail. Instead of looking at his OPS against LHP on Weekday Day games in the Month of June when the temperature is above 73degrees, take a look at how he impacts the team in other ways.

  • Kirk Cahill

    I think he’s going to do more than push his way into the conversation. I think he’ll be the conversation.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Also missed 50 games… does that just not register when you throw out those totals?

  • Nicely done, keep up the good work.

  • The captain is one of the few plusses on a team littered with question and holes. While I’m glad we’ve got him, I still think the team would be better off without his second generation contract for his down years and if he were traded a year or two ago. With all this losing, my only hope now is that he can at least be our first career-Met Hall of Famer.

  • Joey D.

    Hi Connor,

    I notice that your “traditional” figures seem to match what David might have finished up with in 2013 had he not been injured where it is quite possible he could have wound up with 25 home runs and 24 stolen bases if his average remained at .307 and his OBP .390. They also match closely his 2012 figures when he did play a full season. He had probably his best defensive year ever last season as well. Neither did he show any signs of physically slowing down with his bat speed, timing or strength of how the ball was coming off his bat.

    So for all the deep analysis you went into, we both kind of expect the same year from David simply because this is the type of hitter he is. LOL

    But there is one thing I am concerned about despite David being the polished hitter he is. What about the fact that David had Byrd protecting him last season and right now the Mets do not really have a cleanup hitter. Granderson has the power and a left handed bat which will help him but he also strikes out a lot and could be hitting in the .240 to .250 range which means Curtis might still be seen as the lesser of the two evils.

    In 2012 we know that the first half of the year the team was hitting (scoring an average 4.58 runs per game) so he was getting protection and even though the team went into a batting slump the second half, David still had Ike Davis protecting him (Ike hit 20 home runs in the second half and .261 from June through August). So my concern is that David might not see the pitches he got the last two years which I personally feel will not tarnish anything of his performance but as far as the numbers he puts up, they could be affected.

    Any thoughts about his stats being affected by the change in hitter behind him?

  • Bubbadubbs

    You have no clue.there is no way to compare wright with mattingly. Just go be a yankee fan already your posts drag down this site and are so based on your rediculous dislike of david wright.

  • Snuffleupagus

    Yeah I think “protection” is overstated to a large degree. There are going to be some instances where who is behind a better is going to impact whether a pitcher goes after the batter or walks/pitches around him, but in most cases a pitcher is trying to get a hitter out. (Though I suppose there can sometimes be a mental component to a hitter having help vs. being the one in the lineup that can affect some guys)

    Though the surrounding lineup does come into play when looking at stats like RBI/runs. So if one wants to use those stats to judge players lineup has to be factored in. (That is also why those stats are’t great measures).

  • Mets Fan in NC

    Connor-Great work. I applaud your passion for both the Mets and writing.
    I question the depiction that Wright was on his way to a monster year last year without the injuries. Wright was having a solid season. David needs to be the solid and consistent number #2 to an elite player. David is good but not elite.

  • Connor O’Brien

    It’s definitely a tough choice as those players you mentioned are all very talented. For just one season, it’s tough but Wright would of course be up there.

  • Connor O’Brien

    That’s a drop in power and a significant drop in walks but nonetheless still a fine season.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Even if it has an effect, it’s minimal. In theory, yes, it works, which is why players will tell you it works. However in practice, on a large scale, it either doesn’t happen or barely happens, whether someone says they have experienced it or not.

    There are individual cases where it happens, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it exists.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Thanks for letting me know. Just fixed it.

  • Connor O’Brien

    David Wright has played less than 140 games twice in his career.

    Reyes has done it six times.

    Going back through their careers, I did a mini-study on these three players, and I don’t remember the exact numbers for Reyes and Ellsbury but I found that Wright has had two significant injuries in his career, while Reyes has had six or seven, most of them relating to his legs. Ellsbury has had three I believe, not counting the time he missed with thyroid problems.

  • Connor O’Brien

    The fact that Wright has been hurt on separate occasions two years apart doesn’t mean he’s injury prone, even if he missed 40+ games for each.

    You can throw out that average games played number all you want, but the fact is he has had only two (completely unrelated) injuries. Just because they happened in the last three years doesn’t mean he’s becoming injury prone, it’s just a matter of chance.

    The first one happened when he was 29. That’s not the age a player declines!

    If he kept hurting his leg muscles like Reyes, or kept hurting some other related body parts, THEN I’d say that maybe something was going on there, but until then you cannot tell me that a freak back injury (one that probably would’ve happened to anyone that made that dive) and one hamstring strain is enough to dub him “injury prone.”

  • Connor O’Brien

    Do you know what a sample size is?

  • Connor O’Brien

    Best “pound for pound” is another way of saying “game for game.”

    If you were to extend his statistics to 670 plate appearances, the same he received in 2013, his line would be as follows:

    .307 BA, .390 OBP, .514 SLG, 24 HR, 23 SB, 300 TB

    With the exception of home runs and OBP by one point, those would all be his best since 2008.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Wright has always been a top 15-20 player and at times a top 5-10 player offensively. That could fit into your definition of superstar or not, it doesn’t really matter.

    I’ve made my case about him being on Hall of Fame pace so far but we will have to wait and see how the latter part of his career plays out. Obviously, if his production falls of a cliff, he won’t be a Hall of Famer whether his first 10 seasons were great or not, but if he declines gradually like many players like him in the past have, then he certainly has a shot.

  • Connor O’Brien

    What is your definition of elite exactly?

    This past season, he was on pace to be a top ten position player for sure. Whether that is elite or not is up to each fan to decide.

  • Connor O’Brien

    A few points here or there in BA, OBP, SLG, etc is really not going to be the be-all-end-all. Even if he doesn’t crack .300, Wright is such a good offensive player that his season will still likely be among the top 15-20 at worst.

  • mets4lyfe

    I set the bar a bit too low for someone of David’s standards. I just don’t want to be disappointed, that’s all.

    Realistically speaking, David’s probably going to put up a slash line of .310/.385/.490. Or he could surprise us and exceed his overall career numbers by putting up a slash line of .320/.400/.520.

    These are really just arbitrary slash lines without any real number crunching so forgive me for that.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Looking at last yea’s .307/.390/.514, I don’t really see it getting too much better than that, as Citi Field is just so tough to hit home runs in that I can’t see him putting up Shea-era power numbers anymore. And expecting that is unfair.

    Either way though, your slash line or mine is still a really good season considering everything.

  • Snuffleupagus

    Depends on what your definition of “elite” is. He’s not Miguel Cabrera dominant, but he was one of the top players in the league last year. And you don’t need a Miguel Cabrera type player in order to win. A team could easily win with Wright as their best player…the problem with the Mets has been they have far too many terrible players.

    At the time he got hurt, Wright was about on par McCutchen as the best player in the NL. He was top 3 in a number of metrics. At the end of the season he finished 4th in the league in wRC+ (tied with McCutchen) among those with 450 PA or more and he finished 6th in the league in fWAR despite missing so much time.

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    No…you…haven’t.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Wright + Sabermetrics + me = disaster of a comments section

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    He wanted Wright traded for Trumbo & Bourjos. Are you surprised by such idiotic comments?

  • Connor O’Brien

    ” Instead of looking at his OPS against LHP on Weekday Day games in the Month of June when the temperature is above 73degrees, take a look at how he impacts the team in other ways.”

    That’s not a sabermetric thing at all. Sabermetrics is meant to quantify the previously unquantifiable, not to just spew out ridiculous splits.

    And I have written on this very topic in the past. Sabermetric people tend to still value the intangibles, however they acknowledge that many of them show up in the results. There are some that don’t, and those are considered as well.

    I wrote a post a few months back on this very subject. I urge you to check it out.
    http://metsmerizedonline.com/2014/01/debunking-three-myths-about-sabermetrics.html/

  • Connor O’Brien

    Trumbo and Bourjos?
    *facepalm*

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    I was crying in laughter for 15 minutes after reading it.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    Wright does enough thing well to appear great statistically. If you extrapolate out his 112 game numbers to 162. Wright has 26 Home Runs 83 RBIs..good but not great. As a 3B during his career there are arguably 5-7 3B that were better. Cabrera, Jones, Rolen, Beltre, and Rodriguez…and if you had a choice would you take Wright over Zimmerman or Longoria now David is an excellent player and he has had a nice career but to me an elite player is a player like Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, A-Rod in his prime, Bagwell etc. I view David Wright similar to Jeff Kent. An excellent player but not elite

  • Mets Fan in NC

    An elite player can carry his team and doesn’t need a superstar in front of him to absorb the load. David is a star but not a superstar.
    David gets a lot of fans support but even in his best years he played second fiddle to Beltran and Delgado. In some other years Reyes stats were better and some would argue Murphy was better offensively last year than Wright.

  • Connor O’Brien

    There is no baseball player that can carry his team. It’s a sport where 25 men contribute.

    As a fielder, you get the ball anywhere from say, 3-4 times per game.

    As a hitter, you get 3-5 chances to make an impact.

    Nine players get these opportunities on offense, and even more make an impact with their pitching.

    Baseball is far different from basketball, where any player can make an impact at any time. One player can only affect a team so much. You can’t tell me that without Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers would all of a sudden be a last place team. They would be significantly worse, but one player does not make a great team, or a bad one.

  • Snuffleupagus

    There’s more to being a great player than just HR and RBI. McCutchen won the MVP last year (and deservedly so… it wasn’t a case of a sham winner) with 21 HR and 84 RBI in a full year. He was the best player on his team and that team was good enough to make the playoffs.

    Career wise I think Wright has been a better hitter than Rolen or Beltre, but not quite as good as Jones, Miggy, or ARod. The later of whom are some of the greatest hitters of the era at any position.

    I’d definitely take Wright over Zimmerman. He’s clearly the better player IMO.., Zimm had that good stretch from 09-10 when Wright had somewhat of a down stretch and it looked like ZIm might surpass Wright, but the last two years (and career wise) Wright has been significantly better. Longo and Wright are more comparable… I think they are about equally valuable. If I was picking a player going forward, I’d likely go with Longo simply b/c he’s several years younger…but in terms of recent productivity I think they are pretty similar.

    And I agree Wright isn’t on the level of Trout/Cabrera. So if that’s your definition of “elite” then I’d agree Wright isn’t “elite”, But by that definition, you don’t need an elite player in order to be a winning team….only 2 teams have a guy like Trout or Cabrera and 10 teams made the playoffs last year (none of them were Trout’s). Not that I’d object if Trout wants to come join the Mets, but I don’t think getting a player better than Wright is a necessary step in turning the Mets into a winner

  • mets4lyfe

    Wright’s ability to hit opposite field homeruns to right-center has disappeared because of the ridiculous dimensions of Ebbets Field (yes, I said Ebbets Field). The park wasn’t built with Wright in mind. Wright would still be a guaranteed 25-30 HR hitter to this day if he were playing in Shea Stadium dimensions.

    I’d say I seen him hit at least 5-7 390+ ft. opposite field doubles a season, which would’ve been HRs at old Shea Stadium (R-CF was only 378 ft.).

    Wright still has the same sort of power he exhibited back in 2007 and 2008, but Ebbets Field does a darn good job of masking it.

  • Snuffleupagus

    Delgado never had a full year better than Wright as a Met. And he was pretty blah in Wright’s best year (2007).

    Beltran was better in 2006 and in limited time in 2009 and in 2011 (though the latter two wouldn’t qualify as Wright’s best years). Reyes was only a better hitter in 2011 (again not one of Wright’s good years).

    And nobody reasonable should argue that Murph was a better hitter than Wright last year.

  • mets4lyfe

    I really don’t understand this fascination certain people have with Mark Trumbo. He’s basically a right-handed version of 2012 Ike Davis.

  • mets4lyfe

    You can’t “carry” a team in baseball like you can in basketball. When it comes down to it, baseball is an individual sport.

  • Hotstreak

    Borderline means he has a shot. I agree it depends on his future production. If his stats are as you projected for the next five years I think he COULD make it. One thing will help the sports writers and Baseball announcers such as Vin Scully on MLB TV rave about him. In NY guys like Alex68 and to an extent even me as I try to be objective are tired of losing with him. I still believe he should have been traded when Reyes left for a total rebuild.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    McCutchen led a PIrates team to the playoffs since the days of We are Family. He was the star player on a winning team that hasnt won anything in like 40+ years. If and when the Mets make the playoffs with David being the top player on the team he may win an MVP. An MVP is like an All Star voting. It means the individual had a good year or was the best player on an otherwise crappy team (All Star) or the best player on a winning team (potential MVP). I don’t view McCutchen as elite yet

  • Taskmaster4450

    There is only one thing that is important when it comes to Wright…his ability to stay on the field.

    Alex68 is right, Wright has been injured 2 of the past 3 seasons. Yes, the first time was for a broken bat. However, last season, he didnt come out of the game when he hurt his hammy, instead playing for another 5 games before going on the shelf for 6 weeks. To me, he should realize his value to the team. Either way, Wright needs to play 150 games this year.

    If he does that, I expect .300/20/90-100.

  • Mets Fan in NC

    That is a relatively new concept that has gathered steam with the new generation of fans that think it takes a village. I have been following baseball for over 40 years and many of the great one can and do carry teams for long stretches in a season. Older fans believe that a elite star can ignite and carry a team. They make the team better and their offensive exploits come at opportune times. Players and agents get paid based on a myriad of new stats. Some guys get their stats but quietly. I remember Kevin McReynolds a great “stats” guy that had 20+ Home Runs 20+ steal every year. The WAR people would love him but got a lot of his numbers after the team was up or down 8-0
    Elite guys produce when the pressure is on

  • Mets Fan in NC

    David played 112 games. Why does Wright always get a pass for time missed? It’s like saying we run a 100 yard dash and one guy is winning up to 80 yards and doesn’t finish. Does the guy who finished and had better cumulative time in the race get second place. Murphy should have been the team’s offensive MVP last year.
    David has a lot of talent but needs to play a full season. You cant play 60% and be declared the best. Carlos hit 38 Home Runs twice and over 110 RBIs while suffering from a degenerative hip condition. Carlos was the one of the stars of that team and a guy that took a lot of heat of Wright

  • Find where I made an excuse buddy.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    That’s stupid, but not on the level of the Tejada comment

  • Snuffleupagus

    I’m not giving Wright a pass for time missed. I’ve already mentioned that as a concern, But Wright in 112 games was still better than Murph in 160.

    And Delgado was good those years…but Wright was a bit better.

  • Snuffleupagus

    Yeah that is consistent with your view of elite players. But I think he’s evidence that you don’t quite need a hitter on the level of Trout/Cabrera in order to win.

    Most teams don’t really have that guy. The ones who were closest last year were probably LAD with Hanley and CIncy with Votto, but Hanley missed a ton of time and given you like RBI, you probably werent’ too high on Votto’s recent season.

  • Snuffleupagus

    I think it’s fair for people to express some concern about Wright’s recent injuries. And I don’t think I’d say Wright’s back injury would’ve happened to anyone. But I think the desperate need to set the comparison window at 3 years is rather silly (both in terms of stats and in terms of injury).

    Stats wise..clearly there is a difference between DW in 2011 and DW in 2012-2013.

    And injury wise the comps to Ellsbury and Reyes just in that three year window is rather silly. The story changes if 2 years or 4 years is used as the comparison point.

    And really the 3 year injury comp isn’t saying a whole lot either. Wright missing a lot of time the last 3 years has been much talked about. It stood out as an unusually injury-riddled stretch for Wright. With Ellsbury and Reyes it was pretty much “normal” and or a relatively healthy stretch for them. Wright’s injury filled three years = 370 games… while Reyes and Ellsbury’s normal/healthy stretches = 379 and 360 games, respectively.

  • mets4lyfe

    First of all, I agree that an elite baseball player makes your team better. There’s no debating that. However, the player himself cannot turn a 70-win team to a 90-win team just by his presence. Secondly, you still need to surround an elite player with other good players to have success. This isn’t like basketball where a talent like LeBron James can take a 17-win team to a 50-win team from one season to the next. Baseball requires every player to play their part because no player is capable of doing everything. There’s just too many facets,nuances, and specializing in baseball to have one player perform everything baseball requires you to do at a high-level.

    Where we do disagree is the significance of the impact an elite baseball player. A basketball team without LeBron James would be far worse than a baseball team without, for example, Mike Trout. Mike Trout cannot help his teammates out in situations where a pitch needs to be made or a hitter other than Trout needs to drive in runs.

    btw, I’m not a huge advocate of WAR. I have a history of finding it to be unreliable. It’s a nice little stat which “seems” reliable, but the more you look in to it, the more you realize how flawed it really is.

  • mets4lyfe

    I hope no one really believes that Murphy was a better hitter than Wright last year.

  • mets4lyfe

    offense saber stats are pretty reliable unlike pitching and defense. Most of the stats such as wOBA, wRC+, etc. are easier to digest since they’re just condensed version of a player’s offensive output. It basically gives you what you need to know in one little stat. However, pitching saber stats and defensive stats are wholly too unreliable because they’re predictive stats, which can lead to the wrong conclusions. xFIP, FIP, SIERA, etc. need to used in conjunction with factual observations. Otherwise, you’ll be lead to believe things that are completely false.

  • Just_Da_damaja

    2011 he ABSOLUTELY was better than Wright.

    And in clutch situations he has always been better than Wright.

    Murph is my favorite hitter on the team right now.

  • Snuffleupagus

    I’m not sure what your issue is. I pretty clearly said both Reyes and Beltran (I’m not sure which is the “he” you are going with here…I hope it’s Beltran given the “clutch” thing) were better than Wright in 2011.

    2011 wasn’t even really relevant to the initial conversation…since we were talking about Wright’s “best” years when Delgado/Beltran were still on the team and nobody would mention 2011 in that group (both since it was Wright’s worst year, and Delgado wasn’t on the team). But I figured i’d bring it up anyway since those guys were clearly better then.

    And congrats on your love for Murph

  • Just_Da_damaja

    way too much pressure on David to succeed here, not to mention the pressure he puts on himself.

    Id rather have Murph or Tejada with the game on the line as well.

  • Just_Da_damaja

    ummm yes he is…

    and to make it worse, David’s HIGH SCHOOL COACH said the same thing we’ve been saying for years here…the same thing you Wright Stans have been in denial about.

    he starts off the season hot, gets fatigued, loses his mechanics, cant catch up to FB’s, starts his swing too early to compensate, and is essentially a guess hitter rather than someone who can react.

    this has been the pattern since 2009.

    look at his month to month stats. no way is Citifield adapting its dimensions in April-May-June-July-Aug-Sept

    Wright has more excuses than welfare cases

  • Just_Da_damaja

    “If you remove Wright, the little structure that this team has left crumbles.
    Worst thing to come out of this sabrmetric era, is people forget the importance of intangibles.”

    WHAT ????

    what intangibles is Wright bringing ?

    We have been embroiled in one PR mess after another and Wright stays out of the way when the front office wants to throw another player under the bus.

    What’s Wright’s stance on Harvey? how about the Ike Davis goes to the movies too much while he leads the NL in 2nd half HR fiasco in Sept 2012?

    Wright is a politician who smiles for the camera.

    He also occupies a position that 2 other people can play as well, at a much better rate than anyone can play SS.

    Flores and Murphy.

    If we traded Wright for a package that resulted us in getting a Carlos Correa or a Francisco Lindor and then a Stanton, would you turn it down for the “intangibles” Wright brings ?

  • Just_Da_damaja

    if lineup protection is important…

    why were David’s numbers better when the folks behind him were struggling …?

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    When are you talking about? Is there an actual time frame?

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    Tejada…over Wright? Wow. That’s just…wow. Haha. Do you have any logic to back that up?

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    Oh look, another clown decides to join the party….

    Let’s see….this wouldn’t happen to be the same coach who said the very same stuff years ago I did when Wright was working extensively with HoJo about him constantly tinkering with his swing (I quote, “He has more changes to his stance than Cal Ripken Jr”), would it? So as far as “denial” goes, you’re way off (as usual).

    “….gets fatigued, loses his mechanics, cant catch up to FB’s, starts his swing too early to compensate, and is essentially a guess hitter rather than someone who can react”

    Ironically enough, sounds like you described one Isaac Benjamin Davis to a tee, but of course, he gets, how you say it, “more excuses than welfare cases” because somehow, you have it wrapped up in your mind he’s gonna hit 40 HRs, 100+ RBIs with someone else lol.

    Please, go back to your Centeno for starter rants.

  • Just_Da_damaja

    Ike gets so fatigued that he leads the NL in HR from June-October of 2012…

    then again, after being demoted in June, comes back to the bigs and does exactly what he needs to do, has an obscene OBP rate, great BABIP, starts hitting HR before he suffers a season ending injury

    in 2010, he sure looked fatigued in the 2nd half right?

    Sorry, I support Ike.

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    LMAO thank you for proving to be a hypocrite.

    When he produces when it actually matters, over a FULL season and not cherry picking for partial seasons, give me a call. Until then, he’s Mike Jacobs part deux.

  • Destry

    If he would’ve gotten around 700-750 PAs last season, he most likely would’ve had an 8.5 WAR That’s ridiculous….. He had almost 6.0 in 110 games and less than 500 PAs

  • Just_Da_damaja

    He started producing on June 9th 2012, with the mets 3.5 games out of 1st place.

    I guess those games didnt matter right?

    Ike was fine in the 2nd half of every year he played in the bigs

    You can just admit you were wrong and stop making me make YOU look foolish here.

    I got facts and stats to support my statement…

    you ?

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    LMFAO making me look foolish? In what lifetime? I’ve made you look like a hypocrite & a sad apologist that’s still cherry picking stats (reading comprehension is not your strong suit, is it?), and the only thing you’ve made me is bored.

    Now on to facts….Mets were 3.5 games out of 1st because they lived & died on their pitching, namely Santana, Dickey, Niese, and Gee. Even after Davis “found himself”, the Mets didn’t get so close after Gee & Santana went down, now did they?

    Ike was fine was in the 2nd half every year? Wonderful! Unfortunately, baseball consists of 162 games, not 81. You’d think with those “amazing” 2nd halves he has, contenders like Baltimore & Pittsburgh would’ve had no problem giving in to what the Mets wanted for Davis, no? Even a crap Milwaukee team went with Mark Reynolds!

    Is that the best you can do? Aim higher.

  • Just_Da_damaja

    “When he produces when it actually matters”

    – Volvo

    Producing while you are 3.5 games out in June = when it actually matters.

    Its not his fault the team fell apart after that.

    and no, his issues are nothing like Wright’s.

    “over a FULL season ”

    Wright had an uneven 2009, 2010, a bad 2011, an uneven 2012…

    you’re a chump who cant admit he’s wrong.

    bravo
    applauso

    now please get off my bozack

  • Just_Da_damaja

    dale duro !

  • Just_Da_damaja

    hitting .308 with 18 HR and 58 RBI is HOF numbers shun.

    The hell you smoking over there

  • Just_Da_damaja
  • Just_Da_damaja
  • Just_Da_damaja

    Mattingly was a perrenial gold glove winner who redefined the position defensively in the 80’s…

    Donnie from age 23-28 averaged .332 with 27 HR and 114 RBI

    Donnie won an MVP in 1985, was a top 5 finisher 4 other times. won a GG every year

    David from age 23-28 avg .306 with 24 HR and 106 RBI

    David won 2 gold gloves, finished in the top 5 MVP vote just once.

    David does compare more with Dale Murphy though…

    I’ve said that before…

  • Just_Da_damaja

    everyone thinks he’s a “good player” and a top 3B…

    and if Murphy/Flores did not exist, there would be no debate as to whether he’s the right fit for this team…

    David is a good player, top 3B and has more value to us in a trade.

  • Just_Da_damaja

    so if he misses 50 games again, is he not worth the 20 mil per year ?

  • Hitmanᵛᵉʳᶦᶠᶦᵉᵈ ✔

    Zzzzzz….

    Oh, you finished with your senseless rambling?

    Jeez, you’re so slow, you even try to cherry pick my words in an effort to be correct, but you even can’t get that right. Producing when it matters=Producing over 162 games, not halfway.

    If its not his fault the team went down, your point simply becomes irrelevant. Ain’t it funny how during Wright’s “uneven years”, he was STILL near or over. 300 for the YEAR & a top 3B in the league. Davis doesn’t have that distinction. Wright at his worst didn’t hit. 227 or get as low as hitting. 114 with RISP at any point of his seasons.

    Only a virgin would say “bozack”, so no shock coming from someone with a 2nd grade education like you, but please, keep it coming. I havent even gotten warmed up tearing your “facts” apart.

  • Connor O’Brien

    Considering how much a win costs now on the free agent market, yes, he still would be.