NL East Projection By Rank Points

sign man miracles

Sandy Alderson and his front office have spent all winter trying to address the Mets weaknesses and shortcomings in an attempt to put a much improved product on the field for the 2014 season. Or in other words, they’ve been doing exactly what 29 other MLB front offices have been doing.

However, for this particular post, let’s just stick to the five teams that comprise he National League East and take a look at how the division stacks up as we get ready to start Spring Training.

This is a simple but common method of comparing teams using rank points across each team’s position players, starting pitchers, and bullpens. The rankings take into consideration recent success/failure, history of injuries, and track record.

The lower the number of the ranking, the better the grade.  At the end, we add up all the rank points and compare how each team did. My notes for each ranking follows and they include any exceptions made as well.as my thoughts and explanation.

NL EAST PROJECTIONS BY RANK POINTS

STAT 1

STATS 2

Offense

C:  Wilson Ramos has been great once he got healthy; Carlos Ruiz is slowing down at 36; Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a good veteran but with a low average; Travis d’Arnaud is unproven but talented; Evan Gattis is a strong guy but a horrible defender with high strikeouts.

1B: Freddie Freeman gets the edge due to Ryan Howard‘s health issues the last couple of years; Adam LaRoche is steady; the Mets platoon of either Ike Davis or Lucas Duda and Josh Satin should prove decent; and Garrett Jones is not a very good first baseman or hitter.

2B: Chase Utley had a great year, but his knees are always on the verge of DL; Daniel Murphy is adequate offensively but needs to improve defensively; Dan Uggla is third based on past history and writing off 2013 as just a very bad year; Anthony Rendon is a talented youngster; Rafael Furcal is trying to show he is healthy.

SS: Ian Desmond is the best combination of offense and defense; Andrelton Simmons is amazing defensively, but the bat needs to improve; Jimmy Rollins is slowing down, but still a smart veteran; Ruben Tejada should offer better offense than Adeiny Hechavarria, whose bat is very under-developed.

3B: David Wright is one of the best in baseball; Chris Johnson had a great year, but hit 50 points more than his lifetime average; Ryan Zimmerman needs to stay on the field but his many injuries have diminished his fielding and have the Nats considering putting him at 1B in 2015; Casey McGehee is a veteran coming back from Japan; Cody Asche is a youngster.

LF: Bryce Harper rivals Mike Trout as the best young outfielder in baseball; Justin Upton is a very talented, but sometimes erratic young player; Christian Yelich is a young, very talented hitter and baserunner; Domonic Brown had a breakout year, but his long swing offers many strikeouts; Chris Young is trying to show health and production to get a big contract next year.

CF: Ben Revere was doing well until his injury in late-June; Marcell Ozuna is an up and coming, very talented hitter and fielder; B.J. Upton has a history of power and speed, but also low average and strikeouts; Denard Span is a steady defender and leadoff type; Juan Lagares is a wizard defensively but most prove offensive ability.

RF: Giancarlo Stanton is a premier power hitter; Jason Heyward is a very good defender and has streaks of being great offensively followed by tons of strikeouts like almost all the Atlanta hitters; Curtis Granderson (Placed in RF because of the “Eric Young factor” and Terry Collins will not want to flip-flop him) needs to show health, but should be a good run producer and base runner albeit a questionable batting average; Jayson Werth is not the run producer we remember in Philly but still a very tough out, especially against lefties; Marlon Byrd had a great year in 2013 and needs to prove that is not a fluke.

Pitching

SP1: Cliff Lee is one the most consistent and dependable pitchers in baseball; Stephen Strasburg still has very good numbers, but suffered last year from run support and inconsistencies; Jose Fernandez stepped onto the scene and had a great year, but let’s see it again; Jonathon Niese returned to health in the second half and was very good the last six weeks; Mike Minor improved his control last year, and needs to maintain that control which the Braves excelled in as a staff.

SP2:  Cole Hamels would be an ace of many staffs, but lacks the consistency of Lee; Gio Gonzalez showed that he was just as good as the year before in the second half; Bartolo Colon had a very good year in the AL, and now transfers over to the lighter hitting league; Kris Medlen was solid as usual, and the best bet amongst Braves pitchers to repeat 2013 numbers; Nathan Eovaldi is still only 23, but is trying to harness his stuff which leads to high pitch counts.

SP3:  Jordan Zimmerman pitched last year as a co-ace to Strasburg and has been brilliant since coming back from TJ surgery in 2012; Julio Teheran had a great year, but like Minor, his great control last year was contrary to his previous years’ showings and may not repeat; Zack Wheeler is improving his command; Jacob Turner is a talented pitcher however, the Marlins may now be trying to trade him. Kyle Kendrick is a soft tosser that was able to keep runners off the bases via the walk last year because he gives up a lot of home runs in Citizens Bank Park.

SP4:  Doug Fister is a dependable starter that was acquired from Detroit; Dillon Gee returned to pre-injury form by May and was very consistent the last four months; Brandon Beachy is coming back from injury, but was an ace before his injury; Roberto Hernandez is a battler type with low walks and low strikeouts; Henderson Alvarez is an inconsistent youngster.

SP5:  This is where it pays to be a Mets fan!  We know that Jenrry Mejia, Rafael Montero, and Noah Syndergaard should provide production closer to a mid rotation pitcher in the SP #5 position; Ross Detwiler is coming off injury, but was decent beforehand; Jonathan Pettibone is a talented  youngster that battled injury last year; Gavin Floyd is trying to come back from injury himself; Tom Koehler is very hittable and doesn’t generate many strikeouts.

CL:  Craig Kimbrel is one of the best in baseball; Rafael Soriano has had several reliable seasons as a closer; Bobby Parnell needs to show he is healthy, but last year became the dominant closer the Mets always hoped for after adding a knuckle curve to the repertoire; Jonathan Papelbon has started showing velocity loss and was touched up for some ugly blown saves last year; Steve Cishek is a side-arming finesse pitcher.

Bullpen:  The Mets depth in pitching puts them ahead of the others; Washington still has a solid three when combining Soriano with Craig Stammen and Tyler Clippard; Philly has a less spectacular, albeit solid three in Antonio Bastardo, Papelbon, and Mike Adams; Atlanta’s bullpen has been ravaged by injuries but is expecting Jonny Venters back by June; Miami has a young pen with Rule 5 pickup Angel Sanchez.

Conclusion

The numbers show that Washington is the most talented team in the division.  However, the next three are very close and while Atlanta won the division pretty handily last year, many things went perfectly for them.  Although expecting a bounce back from Uggla and B.J. Upton is reasonable, it’s hard to expect a recurrence of Johnson hitting 50 points more than his career norm, pitchers all keeping a remarkable improvement in control, and the hitters slugging so many timely home runs.   The hitting may still be very good overall, but the pitchers’ stability will be the key to where Atlanta finishes.

Philadelphia is third, but that is assuming: 1) all their oft-injured players will not be out for prolonged periods and that may be a stretch, and 2) there isn’t regression from a collection of players that are mostly in their mid-thirties.

The Mets are in a very good position to sneak into the number two spot if their players can achieve or even overachieve their expectations. The Marlins are rebuilding, but have a young nucleus of hitters in Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna, with veteran leadership in Saltalamacchia and Jones, but still a very raw pitching staff.

This is quite a simple comparison and does not allow for disparities, such as how big a difference a borderline elite player like, say Justin Upton, is better than Christian Yelich, the next ranked LF.  While it always plays out differently between the lines, and I didn’t know what to expect when I started this exercise, I feel we are seeing a realistic picture of where the teams stand right now.

Presented By Diehards

About Fan Shots 402 Articles
Share your opinions with over 25,000 daily readers on MMO and write your own Fan Shot. If we like what we read, we'll feature you on our front page with the rest of of our great content. Simply email us at GetMetsmerized@aol.com and we'll take care of the rest. Then you can tell your all your friends and family that you were published on Mets Merized Online - the #1 Mets Fan Site on the web!
  • lareplus

    If only Rudyard Kipling were a Mets fan we’d have a fabulous poem from him every spring.

  • louisrstennes@yahoo.com

    “The Mets are in a very good position to sneak into the number two spot if ………” If you really, really believe this then you should go to the Sports Book in Vegas and put 10 grand on it. The truth is they will be battling the Phillies for the 3rd spot, and yes I would take a flyer on that. It’s a lock the Braves or Nats will be one two and after that it is a crap shoot,

  • Dave_in_Spain

    Nothing´s a lock.

  • Dave_in_Spain

    Nice post Gus! I think that the team has a chance to end up higher in these positional ranks at C and 1B if things go reasonably well. OF could be a little better too. And Drew would be at or near the top of the SS if signed. So, reason to hope. Also it´ll be interesting to do this again next year, with the projected rotation of Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Niese, and 1 of Colon/Montero/Gee/Mejia in the 5 slot.

  • metsman

    Off topic but chris Johnson is a roid head as evidenced by his out of nowhere resurgence and his sucker punch of Carlos Gomez when he came running off the bench and hit him when other players where holding him down.

  • Big Mets Fan

    Great comment. I may have to swipe that one for a tweet.

  • Tacohow

    “This is where it pays to be a Mets fan!” To describe the teams number 5 starter. Most unintentionally ironic and depressing quote. Ever.

  • oleosmirf

    This is an extremely flawed way of comparing the teams though since it does not take into consideration, how much better the players are than one another.

  • SRT

    This was great – thanks for the analysis.

    So many ifs – such as Chris Johnson repeating, Uggla not on permanent decline, Lagares and TdA taking a step forward with the bat, Phillies geezers staying healthy, etc. etc.

    Right now, have to agree with you on the Nats – especially once they added Fister. However, this is baseball and anything can happen.
    Can’t wait until the season starts.

  • SRT

    I agree with your comment of comparing player by position.
    For example, we might have the best 3rd baseman in the division but doesn’t much help if another team has the best LF and CF (for example) and their numbers are better.

    Still, fun exercise.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Lmao, comical stuff. How about coaching!?players that may come up to help their respective team? GM? Which by far ee have the worst!? How about mid season trades to help the team during july? No!?nothing!? In the end the numbers that will matter are this 76-86

  • oleosmirf

    It is fun to look at, but I was referring to the fact that the difference between 1 and 5 could very small at 1 position (like CF) and absolutely huge (like LF)

  • Gus mentioned that in his closing comments. We understand that. But there’s no such thing as great and perfect projections, All of them are flawed as my post on Pecota will soon show. And baseball is all about projections in the preseasons, this is just one of many flawed versions.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    So we are behind, Wash, Atl and PHI, yea that sounds about right. If all goes well we may finish in front for PHI, but we are still looking at a 3 or 4 place finish.

  • Alex, many of us on MMO work hard to create original and thoughtful posts that you won’t find anywhere else. Our goal is to keep the discussion going and find ways to veer off into different avenues of conversation based on unique ideas and different concepts.

  • By the way, how do you rank coaches? I never saw such a thing. Maybe you can post your hitting, pitching, bench and bullpen coaching rankings for us.

  • Hotstreak

    Sandy lovers lie just like Sandy.

    They try to rob your money just like the Wilpons.

    Yes they borrow, beg and steal.

    More hope and hype what else is new.

  • Hodges14

    I think Atlanta is really going to miss McCann but this may be the year that the Nationals put it all together. Either way, unfortunately the Mets are not in the conversation other than to avoid the cellar with the Marlins. It’s a pretty safe bet that when the season is over the Mets will be closer to last place than first place… AGAIN.

  • El_Verdadero_Presidente

    And you gentlemen do some job, Mr. D. Thought-provoking summary by Texas Gus. This is the kind of content I was starving for before I found MMO.

  • Hodges14

    You’re doing a good job Joe D. Keep it up. I really appreciate that the staff interacts with the commenters.

  • CJM

    The NL East is a weak division–there’s no denying that. It’s wide open. Washington’s the frontrunner based on pitching, but their offense is suspect.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    I would, but it’ll probably be rejected like that piece I sent you about wright not being a HOF

  • CJM

    I will make that bet against you.

  • Alex68 (Ch)

    Hodges, you personally hate sandy alderson for saying that, even if its the truth

  • Hotstreak

    Texas Gus I am sorry if I came on too strong please do not take it personally as I respect you. This is a case I admit I did not realize you were the writer. I was venting as a frustrated fan. It takes guts to write an article 🙂

  • Hodges14

    I don’t hate Alderson. Honestly, I don’t think Alderson even wants to be here. He hasn’t been very productive as far as results go at the major league level, but that’s not what he was brought here to do. Every time I get frustrated with Alderson I remind myself that he was brought here to gut the payroll and lie to the fan base about it. That’s all, and he’s done a great job at both.

  • BehindTheBag

    Speaking of comical stuff…you’re a joke.

  • Hodges14

    Alex, I obviously didn’t see your piece about Wright, but don’t you think it’s a bit early in his career to be making the decision of whether or not he’s HOF material? Honestly, if you compare his career thus far to the similar timeframe in Chipper Jones’ career they are remarkably similar (except of course for post season appearances).

    Unless I hear at some point that Chipper was a PED cheater I’d consider him to be HOF material.

  • Biggle Boy

    I don’t understand how the Mets Bullpen can rank #1. When you rank them by ERA of the 7 relievers who logged the most innings for their team, the Mets pen had the 4th highest ERA in the NL East. And who have we added?

  • SRT

    Also, true.

  • bobblehead

    It is also flawed in that it only compares the Mets to the other teams in their own division. What about the rest of the league, scheduling differences, etc. But I love the idea and that someone had the guts to write it. Thought provoking stuff.

  • SRT

    I’ll take the bet that we finish ahead of the Phillies.

  • Hotstreak

    Sandy Lovers you are pathetic. You have no guts to reveal yourselves and give me hell in a post. Hiding behind mommy’s apron strings.

  • Mets2014

    Am I the only one that thinks heyward is grossly overrated? He seems like a good kid and I know he is still young, but so many have put him on a pedestal very prematurely in my opinion…perhaps he ends up being a stud but ad of know he stats are nothing special and for 2014 at least, I take granderson over him Hans down

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    OT BUT I think I have a gd trade for he mets. Its a 3 team deal.

    Mets Get – Elvis Andrus to play ss (texas eats some of his contract)

    Dodgers Get – Murphy to pla 3B
    And Tex Gets – Ethier to play RF (LA Eats some of hs contract)

  • cjr45

    Turner was in the Anibal Sanchez trade not the Cabrera trade and the Marlins are not trying to trade him at this time

  • agetting

    No you’re wrong. If Texas eats some of Andrus’ contract, don’t you think they would be asking for high end prospects in return, not Andre Either?

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    well I think tex is a win now team, and really need an OF whos pretty good. In tex I think either can hit 275 with 25-30 hr.

  • CJM

    If they want an outfielder of Ethier’s caliber they’ll just re-sign Nelson Cruz.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    yea they could but wit the PED questions round cruz ehier is moe of a “you know wat you should expect” guy

  • Mets2014

    How about if you assign a player value rather than a ranking…heck you can even use fantasy baseball values, which I know doesn’t account for defense but at least you don’t have a variance of 4 between the first and fifth ranked players… There may be a 30 point difference instead and would be more appropriate

  • While I appreciate all the work done for this post, I don’t believe it renders a true indication of the post’s basic thesis because the scale is way too simplistic. For example, it only takes into account projected starters and not entire units (i.e. catcher not catchers). Also, simply ranking guys doesn’t take into account how much better a player is in comparison to the competition. Simply saying he gets the highest rank doesn’t tell the story of how one person might be an elite talent and the second place ranker is merely mediocre. Finally, it is hard to completely deconstruct teams and then say, well now altogether this is what we have. Baseball teams (and all teams in general) are more than the sum of their parts…and certainly more than the total of their individual player rankings.

  • Hotstreak

    My take on NL East:

    95 Wins
    Braves and Nats 5-2 odds
    Mets 400-1 odds

    90 wins
    Braves and Nats 2-1 odds
    Mets 100-1 odds

    85 wins
    Braves and Nats even money bet
    Mets 6-1 odds

    Mets win 81 games 2-1 odds

    Mets win 2nd w/c 40-1

  • He’s a stud man. Yes he has had struggles like young players, and yes he’s suffered injuries. But…last year for example he was only worth half a game less in WAR than Choo, and Heyward played in 50 less games. Yes his age 20 debut in the majors got many overly excited. However, he still remains an elite defender with a very potent bat that is still years away from his prime.

  • El_Verdadero_Presidente

    Agree on Chipper. I see David losing career ground to him, though, because of Citi and the supporting cast DW’s stuck with.

  • trevordunn

    I love what Sandy has done to improve SS and 1B this offseason, two black holes last season. He deserves props for that. he realized there is no way the Mets can return with the dead weight garbage of Tejada and Omar Q at SS, and no way to return with the waste of space known as Duda and Ike at 1B. Great job by Sandy…oh wait..woops

  • I remember that Jessep got killed by the core for saying Freeman was better than Ike 3 years ago. That must have been a 300+ comment post. 🙂

  • I think the NL East has the best overall pitching than any other division. A great blend of young and veteran arms with some nice top prospects on the way too.

    Their offense doesn’t stack up with other divisions. The NL East is peppered with some star quality bats, but nowhere near what some of the other divisions have.

  • Hotstreak

    Wright is on the bubble for HOF but more certain than Gil Hodges. He is looking a lot like Don Mattingly.

    If Wright continues with .300/.400/.900 with 22 hrs he will make it. But it is a big IF as he is doing it in his prime with no cushion for regression even further with age.

  • Hotstreak

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesch06.shtml

    I doubt DW at 36 will have the year Chipper had in 2008.

  • DKNOKOZ

    Murphy+Montero for Andrus, nice and easy. Murphy would rake in that park and Montero is MLB ready pitching prospect that Rangers need until Holland recovers, with nice upside for the future. Andrus solves obvious problem for us. Makes both teams better.

  • Bail4Nails

    Coming up on the end of my first offseason “in the threads”. Had a cup of coffee at MetsBlog, it tasted gross, and I came here to MMO. You guys do a great job! I learned a lot about the farm, the game, and the business here. Even the characters here are hysterical. Thanks. That being said, I find the arguing so funny, because I know everyone here will be watching the games from day one, hoping against all reason the Mets will go on a run and make the playoffs. Again, thanks for making the offseason so much fun. Play Ball!

  • Hodges14

    Probably not but that was Chippers age 36 season. Wright’s not there yet.

  • Guest

    The games aren’t played on paper, I appreciate the effort of your argument but my eyes tell me differently

  • Hodges14

    Yeah… never question a Mets homegrown player. They are all destined to have hall of fame careers, regardless of what their numbers say.

  • Hodges14

    True. But I guess David made his choice.

    I can recall seeing an interview at some function or another with Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman. Seaver made a point of saying that if Koosman had left the Mets a bit earlier and gone to a strong team he may have ended up with HOF numbers.

  • Hodges14

    Outside of Philadelphia the other NL East stadiums are either neutral (Wash), slightly favor pitching (ATL) or are definite pitcher’s parks (NY, Miami). This impacts the way we view the pitchers and hitters on all 5 teams as their stats are skewed toward their environments.

    We have the perfect example in NY with David Wright. His stats have no doubt been watered down by playing at Citi Field.

    Sort of like the old Joe DiMaggio playing in Yankee Stadium vs Ted Williams playing in Fenway debate.

  • Mets2014

    I just found a site that had projected fantasy values and did a quick analysis by position for the nl east…for the bullpen however only includes the closer because middle relievers don’t typically put up good fantasy numbers…anyhow here are the results by team…it requires too much typing to list by position, but if you have a specific question I can answer for you
    Washington – 535
    Atlanta – 534
    Philadelphia – 438
    New York – 424
    Miami – 409

  • El_Verdadero_Presidente

    Good point. Conversely, if you exile Glavine to the Mets for his whole career, nobody but us would ever remember him.

  • Wolfmicky21

    As I recall, Sports Illustrated touted him as being one of the greatest black baseball players of all time before he took one MLB at-bat. That wasn’t his fault, but he is suffering from those ridiculous expectations.

  • TexasGusCC

    Hotsteark, me a Sandy lover? After I ripped him a new one on here for extending dumb-dumb for two more years? LOL.
    No problem, buddy, it’s just something I just did for myself and then extended it as an article. Really just meant to say that all teams have weaknesses, its just how you manage them and how many you have.

  • oleosmirf

    That’s the type of information missing from this piece that would really make it more than just a fun little exercise.

    I think your numbers there are pretty fair and given the bullpen (which would favor the Mets), puts us safely above Miami and probably neck and neck with Philly, but well below Washington and Atlanta.

    I think 78 wins is rough estimate

  • Taskmaster4450

    Why would you ask that Hodges? Alex is already stated that both Nimmo and Gavin are total busts and they arent even 21 yet.

  • Taskmaster4450

    You quantified what I believed to be the rankings of the NL East.

    My feeling is the Nats are the cream of the crop. The Braves still hold the number 2 hole although not by a wide margin. I think losing both McCann and Hudson is going to affect them more than people realize. The Mets are in the third spot with a chance to overtake the Braves if some of the young guys produce. I am not high on the Phils since they are old, declining, and injury riddled. The Marlins might be able to leap over the Phils if Howard and company find the DL for any extended period.

  • Julian

    Terrible on so many levels:
    Mets: actually fine
    Dodgers: Already have Uribe and that kid from Cuba
    Rangers: Already have Rios, Martin, Choo, and Choice

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    mets don’t have a SS, Dodgers need a 3b, the kid from cuba plays 2b, rangers will sign an OF.

  • astoriacub

    That’s lame. Why bother making an assertion and then decline to argue it? Oh, and right, because you can’t make a rational argument to support it.

  • Very relevant point with regard to park factors in the NLE where as a whole definitely favors pitching. And by the same token as you intimate, some very good hitting performances may be inhibited from being great.

  • ThatGuyWhoLeavesComments

    A little generous with the Mets bullpen ranking I think, if only because it’s full of unknown.

  • Peter S

    Lololololololol….come on man. Elvis Andrus is a premier player at a position lacking any real available talent. That makes him prime real estate, like Hamptons property. No way you get him for Murphy and ethier. Throw in Flores and Montero and maybe Texas will do it.

  • Matlack

    Appreciate the thought process behind this. Is Grandy playing left or right for us? Washington is the class of the division, talent-wise. I can see the Mets in third, surprisingly close to the Braves. Marlins begin to climb a little with a nice young core and things don’t look good for the Phils. Let’s see how ST plays out and whether we make any more additions.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    Elvis has a bad contract, hes signed for another 10 seasons, texas has been looking to move him because they have 2 young SS just sitting there and possibly a 3ed, who plays 2 and ss. with Profar, sardinas, odor. taking ethier I thought would be a decent reture for loosing is contract. But hay they want Montero we can talk about that too right??? point is sandy needs to start making calls.

  • Peter S

    So if they want to move him so bad, why is he still there? I agree it’s worth a talk. But it will go like this:

    Sandy: we want Andrus
    Texas: ok…wheeler and Flores, throw in Montero if you want cash back.
    Sandy: nice talking to you.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    elvis isn’t that good of a “Star” to warrant a top young pitcher in wheeler and texas dosnt need flores.

  • Peter S

    Andrus average 162 game line: .274/4/56…I’m actually correcting myself. I don’t want this guy.

  • Peter S

    You know what…I agree. I just looked up his stats. Not what I thought. I don’t want him.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    lmao – I think hes worth it in that 3 team trade I put up. Just my opinion.

  • Nmartz

    So, that means we are going to end at the 3rd position of the NL east once again ?

  • TexasGusCC

    This was just an exercise I did to see how the Mets compare to the other teams. Many teams have weaknesses; but it’s how many you have and how you manage them that will make you successful. When I started, I had no idea how far back the Mets would be, but I thought it would be much more. Fourth place, say four or five games behind the second place Braves seems realistic, TO ME, right now.

  • Derpy

    I did an exercise of adding up various WAR projections. I got a worst case, best case, and what I honestly think will happen. Worst case, 74 wins, Best case 88 wins, what I think will happen, 82-84 wins. I feel the following WARs are about what will happen: d’Arnaud: 3; Davis/Duda/Satin: 1.5; Murphy: 3; Wright: 6.5; Tejada: .5; C.Young: 1; Lagares: 3; Granderson: 3; Colon: 2.5; Gee: 1.4; Niese: 1.9; Wheeler: 2; Mejia: 2; Parnell: 1

    Everyone else coming out as below average. So that is roughly +32, which is about 82 wins, +/- 5 or so. So about 77-87 win spread.

  • TexasGusCC

    That’s realistic too. I think. 82 seems right, but if that 1B platoon can only do 1.5 WAR, that’s disappointing.

  • XtreemIcon

    Correction: Never question a Minaya player. Alderson players, however, are subject to a free for all.

  • XtreemIcon

    Tell your friends.

  • XtreemIcon

    This looks about right based on fantasy projections, but I think it’s almost a certainly that the Mets shoot ahead of the Phillies and significantly close the gap with Washington and Atlanta in the standings because of their outfield defense and potential of having a stacked bullpen.

  • E

    1st. Nationals 92-70 2nd. Mets 86-76 3rd. Braves 85-77 4th. Marlins 75-87 5th. Phillies 70-92

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    Wow thats posative thinking, i hope your right

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    Sounds about right

  • Hotstreak

    Texas Gus did you see my apology below: I know you are very level headed and respect you.

  • Sd

    Bullpen #1? Withball due respect thats crazy talk. Theyre 4 or 5

  • TexasGusCC

    Thank you, sir.

  • Hotstreak

    “The way it stands today, without anymore additions, they might be a little short of .500,” a veteran major league executive told The Post.

    Article in NY Post written by Mike Puma is fair and balanced with no doom and gloom and no hype either.

    http://nypost.com/2014/02/08/with-just-modest-additions-mets-could-improve-dramatically/

    Title is really misleading as tone of article is improved but a lot of question marks remain..

  • TexasGusCC

    Thank you Dave.

  • Hotstreak

    As I said I would give 2-1 odds if you bet the Mets get to .500 but it is not impossible. It could happen if Wheeler, and TdA have breakout years and the big offensive three Wright, Grandy and Murphy have good (not necessarily spectacular years) plus BP has to be much better than recent years. If so I have come around to Joe D. then it would be a good transition year.

  • TexasGusCC

    Hotstreak, there is no problem between us. You know that, and I enjoy the passion with which we debate. I didn’t even think that was for me, I thought it was towards louisrttennes. Don’t worry about it.

  • ColoradoMetsFan

    Joe D., I concur with Hodges and Presidente. This site has something for everyone. But most of all, it treats its readership with respect. For that, we applaud you…

  • Super T

    With the best closer in the game today (Kimbrel) Atl’s BP is 4th? Really?
    Edit – Sorry missed the ranking of the closers separately, so it’s not that big.

  • Super T

    LOL, yeah that’s much better than just signing Drew for a lot less money and not giving up anybody.

  • Joey D.

    Hi Tex,

    Fun way of looking at the five teams – ranking each of them by position and then counting up the points.

    The picture you have of the sign man from ’69 reminds me of the Daily News when they did the same thing matching up the Mets and the Orioles. Position players the O’s beat us something like 5-2 with perhaps one even. The pitching was just about even (Baltimore actually had a lower team ERA than we did). We know what happened.

    I think we’ll have more to go on by observing what we see in spring training and by that not the wins or losses or individual performances because the players will still need to get their timing down and will not be facing pitchers up to speed. It will be what we see in the improvement in the mechanics of the key players like Duda, Davis and Lagares. It will be needing to see if Chris Young does not lunge at the outside corner as done in the past. Or if it is noticed something changing with those who are getting older, i.e., those familiar with Granderson. I’m no pro on this so I will be depending upon others for reports on their mechanics.

    And for that what I’ll miss most is not having Ralph Kiner next month to give us an honest and frank evaluation. I remember a few years back in ST Jason Bay was putting up good stats and thus Gary Cohen said it looked like Bay was back with Ralph then interjecting no – that his wrist action indicated he would still be lacking power because it might enable him to line pitches over the infield but not to lift balls into the air with any authority. I’m afraid if some are hitting .300, we might not be told how appearances could be deceiving like Ralph did. During the season, yes – Keith and Ron will keep us posted, but during spring training, it’s going to be tough to really know.

    That is unless Mitch is down there on behalf of MMO (hint, hint Joe D. – get out the travel expense vochure. LOL).

  • Ron

    Seriously…Mejia and Montero get the best rank, and yet collectively they have what, 6 games between them? Take off the rose colored glasses.

  • Out of place Met fan

    Have to disagree on RF & LF. Werth’s second half was MVP caliber on par with Trout like #’s, should be ranked no lower then 2. Yelich still has to prove he belongs, 280 AB isn’t enough for me.

  • MLBGM Fire TC

    I think so drew is aweful

  • Joey D.

    Hi Henry,

    I think Texas knows that too and was just having a bit of fun and not to take the analysis too seriously. Way too often we’ve seen teams which on paper the individual talent of the players did not quite match up to that of other clubs but as a team playing not as individuals but as a combined singular unit, when they took the field they held their own with anyone.

    Anyway, third place might not sound as impressive as it sounds. Besides the Mets, two of the other five teams that finished third in their division finished below .500 as well.

  • BarnRat

    I’d give them a high rank in the #4 position. And based on how he looked last summer, Mejia’s injuries are the only thing keeping him from being considered in the #3 position. If he stays healthy, Mejia will be a really nice surprise this summer.

  • BarnRat

    Btw, I like the simplicity of the system you used. Something to be said for judgement and avoiding false precision.

  • Hotstreak

    Hi Joey D.

    I went to three ST games last year and both Cowgill an JV1 looked like super starts. I learned my lesson. These guys were slugging the heck out of the ball not singles. Yes Satin too was getting three hits per game but singles. Disregard ST period as established pitchers are building up arm strenghth and wanna bees pitchers lack talent for the most part.

  • JimFirman

    Great analysis. Thanks. I have similar feelings. When the Mets win, I will read ten different accounts of the game. When they lose, I don’t want to read one.

  • Hotstreak

    I get 81 wins: 77-85 wins with mean 81. My way is analytical but subjective. It high-low method with both the high and the low based on how realistic I see each as happening on a 90% level normal distribution bell curve. Sort of comfort level of reality within the ninety percent probability range.

  • TexasGusCC

    🙂 now that’s what I’m talking about. I know the feeling!!!

  • TexasGusCC

    Ron, it was based on their combined talent level and the other four number 5 starters coming off injury.

  • Super T

    You might want to look at Tejeda & Andrus’s stats from last year.

  • skyhappysal

    This is a fun way to look at things and again shows that the Mets are not that far away from sneaking into things.
    I don’t agree with all of your rankings, but that is what makes discussing baseball so much fun.
    I would have ranked Wrth higher. And Ashe in Phi is unproven but still a better option than Mcgehee I think. There are no bigger fans of Niese and Gee than I am but I can’t arte them higher than Minor and Beachey. I think the Braves got squeezed a bit in the rankings(except for Uggla who got a boost!) which would lead a bigger gap between 2 and the 3-4, in reality I think that larger gap does exist. The Mets need some youngsters to make strides and have the Chris Johnson’s of teh world come down to narrow it.

  • Tommy

    I understand this was just a little ranking thing the writer did, and it is a cool, fun way to look at the N.L. East & how the Mets stack up, but man do I not agree with a lot of the Met rankings on there! Oh well……too each his own!

  • BadBadLeroyBrown

    Someone is wearing ets colored glasses lol…a little too Mets generous

  • skyhappysal

    I can swallow that rationale and ranking (and I agree!)- but some fo teh other rankings were given based on history – like dan uggla.

  • skyhappysal

    Spring training can show us if they are in shape and if they are making bone ehaded plays. The stats though aren’t too important until a few weeks in, when the young hitters are facing ML quality pitching.

  • Macdaddy

    This type of analysis is a convenient way to perform an eye test on the comparative positional talent in NLE. Does it work…ahhh…not likely but I see why it is done. Ultimately I go with the basic offensive and defensive metrics to determine if this team has the potential to be .500 or better for the 2014 campaign.
    In light of where the Mets ranked offensively in Runs/OBP/OPS and what they did with RISP last year, one would hope that they would improve but in all fairness I just don’t see a major improvement in those respective categories. As we all know the Mets ranked 23 or worse in all of those categories and thus has there been enough addition to enable the team to climb to the middle of the pack…and frankly I just don’t see player additions that are transformative. In simple terms way too much speculation and mediocre performance history with Ike, Duda, Young and Tejada to suggest any of those guy will be offensively better than their career averages…and oe could easily argue that they could be worse.
    This leads you to evaluate the pitching and that is where you get some deceiving results. Yes in a number of the key metrics they were above the league average, but what struck me odd is that they were in the bottom 1/3rd in BA @ .256 and essentially at about 15 or better in metrics like, WHIP, OPS, Runs and Earned Runs. Toss into those numbers that they had the second highest number of inning pitched and of all things the 4 best QS number of 94…and well your left scratching you head a bit. In light of these aspects and a basic reality that their pitching was a perceived strength…then you have to ask yourself if they can produce similar results for 2014. Frankly I don’t see that happening unless they strike gold with Colon and Niese/Wheeler/Gee perform better than expected…and I just don’t think that is possible. If anything I can see a few players performing better but I can also see a few performing less or worse. Thus the realistic scenario is for the Mets to be about what they were last year or slightly less…and losing Harvey is a variable that we all know only hurts the Mets. Can they find a few key performers in the minors like Syndergaard, Montero, Germen or Whalen who could be mid season or late season call ups…IMO…very very unlikely. Unless the Mets truly under perform there is no need to rush these guys.
    This leads to the defense and I do get the sense that they will be a better defensive team in the outfield but I still have doubts at SS and 1B…and weakness in those areas will put pressure on the 2B/3B…and despite what people want to say about Murphy with his fielding or Wright (for that matter)…Murphy ranks 18th in the MLB (when averaging out all fielding metrics) and Wright ranks 6th in the MLB. Thus the team is well below league average at nearly all positions, defensively, excluding Wright…and although we believe that Largares, C & E Young, Granderson and den Dekker can do a better job you do have to take a pause and wonder if they will all pull it together and be better than league average.
    Putting all these aspects together…and what might also be a bit of an eye test on certain levels, has me not seeing much beyond the .500 level and I could easily see this season digress into a 77 win season or worse.

  • TexasGusCC

    Buzz kill. LOL!

  • TexasGusCC

    BBLB, you want some? LOL

  • Macdaddy

    Hahaha…yeah a bit of one. Trust me I hate being pragmatic but you put a scarf and lipstick on a pig and tell the world it is something else…and well we all know it is still a pig.

  • TexasGusCC

    I really did try to be realistic. But, what it tells us, in rather crude, simple terms, is that the Mets will finish in 4th, a couple of games behind the Phillies (whom they passed last year), and about 4 or 5 games behind Atlanta, who I don’t think will even come close to what they did last year. Do you disagree with the final summary?

  • Joey D.

    Hi Hotstreak,

    Yes, and that is why Ralph is going to be missed. I don’t believe any of us are really fooled by spring training numbers, being that spring training means facing pitchers getting their strength back, experimenting on pitches they might not ever through during the season, etc. So when those like Cowgill come along, tsh, tsh, shame on you! LOL

    Yet when established players have a good spring coming off a bad season, I thought it could be a sign of good things to come. That’s why I thought we were going to be in for a great comeback by Bay until Ralph set me straight on that by bringing out the problems beyond the numbers that Gary – in his role of being a Met broadcaster – could not do. That’s why I hope that if Joe D., cannot spring the costs for a spring training visit LOL that Mitch at least will be studying the broadcasts closely to look for things in the player’s mechanics to take over the mantle (Mickey? LOL) from Ralph.

  • Matt

    “the Mets platoon of either Ike Davis or Lucas Duda and Josh Satin should prove decent;”

    Yeah…because the past 2 years were so successful.

  • Hotstreak

    Hi Joey D.

    Let’s say his line is this:

    70 AB’s B,A. ,280, OPS .840 (SLG.540)

    15K’s

    Very good defense
    Does he win the job?

  • Macdaddy

    Gus, let me first say that my opinion holds not more value in the grand scheme of things than yours, regardless of the methodology we each choose to get to our respective views. None the less I do understand your approach and when looking at it from how these 5 teams stack up or rank positional against each others does tend to suggest that the Mets will be at or near the bottom looking up. There are many things that can impact those observations, like injuries and players performing above or below their VORP…but it is fun to project and then see how realistic those projections were.
    The only real debate one could have with your perspective is how these teams perform against the balance of the league and thus I can see the NLE could end up being the weaker of the divisions. However, the focus for this discussion is just the rankings of the NLE. Thus I would agree that Atlanta might not be a 96 win team and frankly if the Nationals perform to what they show on paper (which is always foolish standard to measure the potential of a season) then they should improve by no less than 7 to 10 games and that would mean that you could see a flip flop with Atlanta and the Nationals.
    I think the Marlins will be better than just a 62 win team and could or should crack the 72 win total. And that leaves the Phillies who looked like a beer league team when theywent on the road last year…and frankly I am not sold on the composition of this team both in the field, rotation and bullpen…but maybe their new skipper, Ryno can find some magic and motivate this team to .500 record…and that seems more likely than the Mets doing it…and I have to think that the Phillies will play better on the road than they did last year and that might be the difference maker.
    I don’t know if I am disagreeing with you or not but I see the Nationals at about 94 wins, the Braves at 88, Phillies at 83 Mets at 79 and the Marlins at 72.

  • Joey D.

    Hi Hot Streak,

    I would judge it more on the intangibles one sees more than the line one puts up when it comes to those who have not established themselves or have been on the decline for a few seasons already. Hopefully, the line would go hand in hand with those intangibles.